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CRJ900X
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Future of Bombardier Commercial Aerospace?

Sun Oct 08, 2017 3:19 am

Thinking about the last few weeks with respect to the 300% tariffs placed on the CS100, is the CSeries (and by extension Bombardier Commercial Aersopace) at risk of going bankrupt?

The Q400 has received a boost with the large order placed by Spicejet, Ethiopian Airlines and Philippines Airlines, but that appears to be about two years of production and with ATR owning about 85% of the market and the possibility of Embraer re-entering the turboprop market, do we have room for the Q400?

The CRJ line has China Express Airlines (CRJ900's) and Air Nostrum's (CRJ1000) as the only real customers left in the backlog. Bombardier recently stated that they were investing in the CRJ platform, and I assume that they have some orders pending, but will this happen in any numbers to get momentum building for this line?

The CSeries has not had any firm orders since Air Tanzania ordered 2 x CS300's in December 2016, and with the latest setbacks, it will possibly delay further firm orders, as airlines might wish for the final ruling before firming orders. If the duties remain from the U.S., might the whole program be cancelled, or does the program have enough support and orders to continue on?

Hoping that all can be resolved and the CRJ, CSeries and Q400 will continue to be ordered and built, but things from my perspective seem ominous at the present time.

Thoughts?
 
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LockheedBBD
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Re: Future of Bombardier Commercial Aerospace?

Sun Oct 08, 2017 3:22 am

If bankruptcy is the only option, maybe BBD can convince COMAC to buy the CSeries program off them for a few billion. Then BBD can focus on smaller planes and turboprops. Maybe even a new CRJ to compete with the likes of the E175.
 
GalaxyFlyer
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Re: Future of Bombardier Commercial Aerospace?

Sun Oct 08, 2017 3:48 am

What everyone forgets is, since the first CRJ delivery, they’ve delivered more business jets than airliners. The C-Series soaked up development money from the biz jet side which is now suffering in the market. Plus they wasted a ton on the Lear 85 which had no market. The $1.6 billion could have produced a CL605 replacement (4,000 nm, 9 passenger, M.82 plane) that would have popular and a refreshed Global with newer engines off the G650, less drag with new winglets, etc

GF
 
Varsity1
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Re: Future of Bombardier Commercial Aerospace?

Sun Oct 08, 2017 4:33 am

Selling Learjet to Textron would be a good start.

A new 76 seat CRJ that fits within existing scope limitations would be a close 2nd.
 
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AC853
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Re: Future of Bombardier Commercial Aerospace?

Sun Oct 08, 2017 4:55 am

Don’t count them out so soon. This whole thing is about Trump’s America first campaign. I believe these tariffs will be shown to be “protectionism” gone too far and Delta and hopefully other US carriers will be flying these aircraft. This is no different than when Airbus started up with huge government support and Boeing has received its fair share of support too.
 
GalaxyFlyer
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Re: Future of Bombardier Commercial Aerospace?

Sun Oct 08, 2017 3:31 pm

Selling the commercial plane division would be a better start- it’s just an ego play.

GF
 
SteelChair
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Re: Future of Bombardier Commercial Aerospace?

Sun Oct 08, 2017 4:21 pm

Imho the future of Bombardier commercial aerospace depends upon what "gives" the Canadian government is willing to give in other areas of the NAFTA re-negotiations. If they are willing to give in other areas, all of the the sudden the US Dept of Commerce lawyers will say that the "bailout" wasn't quite so egregious or "illegal" after all. MHO.
 
Arion640
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Re: Future of Bombardier Commercial Aerospace?

Sun Oct 08, 2017 4:45 pm

Just because they can't sell plane's in the US it doesn't mean its the end for them.
 
GalaxyFlyer
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Re: Future of Bombardier Commercial Aerospace?

Sun Oct 08, 2017 4:58 pm

How’s that worked out so far? Not well, as their total sales isn’t 10 month’s 737 production. And when they can’t sell in the US, who’s going to buy it?
 
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mercure1
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Re: Future of Bombardier Commercial Aerospace?

Sun Oct 08, 2017 5:05 pm

I think this needs to be viewed in the much larger context of what is also happening in the rail unit - BBD biggest business segment.

Things are far from rosy there especially now that two big rivals German Siemens and French Alstom appear to be headed to a merger after months of talks with Bombardier being left at the altar. While sales today are steady, they are not spectacular, also BBD rail has over USD $9bil in accumulated debt.

The fact that BBD has been trying to pull off a merger of its rail unit somewhat tells you the larger enterprise is in trouble and commercial airplane unit is hardly the top priority.
mercure f-wtcc
 
SonomaFlyer
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Re: Future of Bombardier Commercial Aerospace?

Sun Oct 08, 2017 5:17 pm

All of you are jumping the gun. The tariff isn't a done deal and if the U.S. attempts to finalize it, watch to see if the E.U. opens a probe of their own on Boeing. This knife cuts both ways with all of the "incentives" and tax breaks given the Boeing for any of a number of programs.

As for Delta, they can work with BBD for a lease deal via one of the leasing companies, via one of their many subsidiaries outside of the U.S. owning the planes and leasing back or any of a number of other options. The fact is that the C series being a clean sheet design is a trend setter. Boeing has nothing in the CS100 category and struggles against the CS300. Rather than trying to compete with an aircraft with a updated design, they slap new engines and some tweaks on the 737 and leverage their lobbying influence to get the Commerce Dept to do their bidding.

When you look at the whole trade picture, the aerospace industry is one in which Boeing is particularly vulnerable. They won't make it with domestic demand alone and if there are punitive measures taken against BBD (which impacts Canada, U.S. sub contractors and E.U. companies) and/or China, Boeing will get the sharp end of the stick.
 
GalaxyFlyer
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Re: Future of Bombardier Commercial Aerospace?

Sun Oct 08, 2017 5:26 pm

Ah, no they can’t. The owner, DL or a foreign lessor, has to import into the US for DL to operate them. US carriers must register their planes in the US, so someone pays the penalty tariff. Ultimately, DL does.

GF
 
1900Driver
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Re: Future of Bombardier Commercial Aerospace?

Sun Oct 08, 2017 5:49 pm

SonomaFlyer wrote:
All of you are jumping the gun. The tariff isn't a done deal and if the U.S. attempts to finalize it, watch to see if the E.U. opens a probe of their own on Boeing. This knife cuts both ways with all of the "incentives" and tax breaks given the Boeing for any of a number of programs.

As for Delta, they can work with BBD for a lease deal via one of the leasing companies, via one of their many subsidiaries outside of the U.S. owning the planes and leasing back or any of a number of other options. The fact is that the C series being a clean sheet design is a trend setter. Boeing has nothing in the CS100 category and struggles against the CS300. Rather than trying to compete with an aircraft with a updated design, they slap new engines and some tweaks on the 737 and leverage their lobbying influence to get the Commerce Dept to do their bidding.

When you look at the whole trade picture, the aerospace industry is one in which Boeing is particularly vulnerable. They won't make it with domestic demand alone and if there are punitive measures taken against BBD (which impacts Canada, U.S. sub contractors and E.U. companies) and/or China, Boeing will get the sharp end of the stick.


Exactly, the 300% is simply a recommendation & nothing is firm yet. Both DL & BBD firmly believe this will be thrown out with the ITC, as it should be.

What a sham!
 
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LAXintl
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Re: Future of Bombardier Commercial Aerospace?

Sun Oct 08, 2017 6:00 pm

Two points:

1) Per US of Trade Office, the tentative 300% tariff is currently enforceable and stands until if ever changed by ITC.

2) I'd say zero chance ITC will throw case out entirely, as it was the ITC that initially voted 5-0 affirmative after finding "There is a reasonable indication of Bombardier’s alleged sale of subsidized jets for less than fair value by using illegal government subsidies and launched an aggressive campaign to dump its CSeries jets in the U.S. market."
From the desert to the sea, to all of Southern California
 
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ACCS300
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Re: Future of Bombardier Commercial Aerospace?

Sun Oct 08, 2017 6:09 pm

One of the best and most accurate summaries of the situation SonomaFlyer, well put and a view many of us here in Canada share as well. Thank you.
 
1900Driver
Posts: 137
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Re: Future of Bombardier Commercial Aerospace?

Mon Oct 09, 2017 7:05 pm

LAXintl wrote:
Two points:

1) Per US of Trade Office, the tentative 300% tariff is currently enforceable and stands until if ever changed by ITC.

2) I'd say zero chance ITC will throw case out entirely, as it was the ITC that initially voted 5-0 affirmative after finding "There is a reasonable indication of Bombardier’s alleged sale of subsidized jets for less than fair value by using illegal government subsidies and launched an aggressive campaign to dump its CSeries jets in the U.S. market."


So then it’s rigged?
 
AirbusCanada
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Re: Future of Bombardier Commercial Aerospace?

Mon Oct 09, 2017 8:57 pm

GalaxyFlyer wrote:
Ah, no they can’t. The owner, DL or a foreign lessor, has to import into the US for DL to operate them. US carriers must register their planes in the US, so someone pays the penalty tariff. Ultimately, DL does.

GF


Not sure how the import duties would work. Let's say BBD sets up a leasing unit JV with DL in one tax heaven country. The Leasing company takes ownership of the aircraft as price agreed in the original deal.

Now what if the Leasing unit "Leases" the aircraft $1/month which would set the duties at $3.

Sure the Leasing unit will loose a lot of money on paper, but Does U.S. or ITC has any jurisdictions on enforcing price floor for aircraft leasing? Keep in mind that no US based leasing company can Lease Cseres to Delta since no one has ordered any.
 
CX747
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Re: Future of Bombardier Commercial Aerospace?

Mon Oct 09, 2017 9:20 pm

SonomaFlyer wrote:
All of you are jumping the gun. The tariff isn't a done deal and if the U.S. attempts to finalize it, watch to see if the E.U. opens a probe of their own on Boeing. This knife cuts both ways with all of the "incentives" and tax breaks given the Boeing for any of a number of programs.

As for Delta, they can work with BBD for a lease deal via one of the leasing companies, via one of their many subsidiaries outside of the U.S. owning the planes and leasing back or any of a number of other options. The fact is that the C series being a clean sheet design is a trend setter. Boeing has nothing in the CS100 category and struggles against the CS300. Rather than trying to compete with an aircraft with a updated design, they slap new engines and some tweaks on the 737 and leverage their lobbying influence to get the Commerce Dept to do their bidding.

When you look at the whole trade picture, the aerospace industry is one in which Boeing is particularly vulnerable. They won't make it with domestic demand alone and if there are punitive measures taken against BBD (which impacts Canada, U.S. sub contractors and E.U. companies) and/or China, Boeing will get the sharp end of the stick.


Nice way to repackage fake news. The CSeries is NOT a trend setter. It is a seriously troubled program with little support. Hence the need to dump the product to DL. The A320NEO and 737MAX are trend setters.

The EU isn't coming to the rescue as they don't have a dog in the fight. The UK has some interest but after initial grumblings, there has been nothing. They know the Canadian Government and BBD went too far.

The thought that anyone here thinks Boeing is "vulnerable" is laughable. They have more on their plate in the aviation industry than others dream about. Please name me one program from BBD or Airbus in the realm of JDAM production and a slammed production line? I get that people are upset that BBD is in a jam but spouting nonsense doesn't make reality go away. BBD needs to seriously talk with the DOC. THEY are the ones who said 300%.

As for China, they see the writing on the wall and will continue with COMAC.
"History does not long entrust the care of freedom to the weak or timid." D. Eisenhower
 
GalaxyFlyer
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Re: Future of Bombardier Commercial Aerospace?

Tue Oct 10, 2017 12:18 am

The planes MUST be imported into the US for DL, as a US FAR 121 carrier, must fly planes under the US registry. Importation triggers the duty.

GF
 
luv2cattlecall
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Re: Future of Bombardier Commercial Aerospace?

Tue Oct 10, 2017 12:52 am

GalaxyFlyer wrote:
The planes MUST be imported into the US for DL, as a US FAR 121 carrier, must fly planes under the US registry. Importation triggers the duty.

GF


If DL were to take delivery and they wanted the same cash outlay, the price would have to be about $7 million. Could they declare the fair market value as that amount, since realistically, no airline would pay $26 million for a new order CSeries if the duties stay in place?

Then DL can pay a few billion for a service contract or something.
 
ACYYZA345
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Re: Future of Bombardier Commercial Aerospace?

Tue Oct 10, 2017 12:55 am

Arion640 wrote:
Just because they can't sell plane's in the US it doesn't mean its the end for them.


Agree absolutely. Just sabre rattling to appease those groups who voted for the current administration. We will see if they actually impose this outrageous tariffs in the end and my guess is no. It is very early days yet and the plane is performing very well. It is currently on a sales tour (Japan the other week and India)
 
ACYYZA345
Posts: 22
Joined: Wed Jun 21, 2017 1:52 am

Re: Future of Bombardier Commercial Aerospace?

Tue Oct 10, 2017 12:58 am

SonomaFlyer wrote:
All of you are jumping the gun. The tariff isn't a done deal and if the U.S. attempts to finalize it, watch to see if the E.U. opens a probe of their own on Boeing. This knife cuts both ways with all of the "incentives" and tax breaks given the Boeing for any of a number of programs.

As for Delta, they can work with BBD for a lease deal via one of the leasing companies, via one of their many subsidiaries outside of the U.S. owning the planes and leasing back or any of a number of other options. The fact is that the C series being a clean sheet design is a trend setter. Boeing has nothing in the CS100 category and struggles against the CS300. Rather than trying to compete with an aircraft with a updated design, they slap new engines and some tweaks on the 737 and leverage their lobbying influence to get the Commerce Dept to do their bidding.

When you look at the whole trade picture, the aerospace industry is one in which Boeing is particularly vulnerable. They won't make it with domestic demand alone and if there are punitive measures taken against BBD (which impacts Canada, U.S. sub contractors and E.U. companies) and/or China, Boeing will get the sharp end of the stick.


Couldn't have said it better! Boeing is taking full advantage of the current administration's America First policy and using it to their end.
 
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Super80Fan
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Re: Future of Bombardier Commercial Aerospace?

Tue Oct 10, 2017 1:09 am

A nice, big lawsuit against Boeing?
RIP McDonnell Douglas
RIP US Airways
 
phxa340
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Re: Future of Bombardier Commercial Aerospace?

Tue Oct 10, 2017 1:17 am

ACYYZA345 wrote:
Arion640 wrote:
Just because they can't sell plane's in the US it doesn't mean its the end for them.


Agree absolutely. Just sabre rattling to appease those groups who voted for the current administration. We will see if they actually impose this outrageous tariffs in the end and my guess is no. It is very early days yet and the plane is performing very well. It is currently on a sales tour (Japan the other week and India)


And saying that the C Series is a trend setting plane whose doom is Trumps America first policy are just hometown cheerleaders who fail to understand that the C Series was troubled long before the US elected a nationalist president.
 
Zachbt
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Re: Future of Bombardier Commercial Aerospace?

Tue Oct 10, 2017 2:09 am

I dunno, a plane that can fly with a viable payload direct from a STOL airport like lcy and make it to jfk would fall under the classification of trend setter to me.

And before anyone gets a bit snarky, yes the a318 has been doing it but that's with less payload and a fuel stop in snn.
 
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aerolimani
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Re: Future of Bombardier Commercial Aerospace?

Tue Oct 10, 2017 2:43 am

Zachbt wrote:
I dunno, a plane that can fly with a viable payload direct from a STOL airport like lcy and make it to jfk would fall under the classification of trend setter to me.

And before anyone gets a bit snarky, yes the a318 has been doing it but that's with less payload and a fuel stop in snn.

Please don't get this going. It's the exact same dispute as whether the 787 is "game-changing" or not. Threads have drifted for pages and pages over such nonsense. Such a topic would be better discussed under Travel, Polls, and Preferences. Let's not clog up this thread.
 
oldannyboy
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Re: Future of Bombardier Commercial Aerospace?

Tue Oct 10, 2017 7:42 am

CX747 wrote:
The CSeries is NOT a trend setter. It is a seriously troubled program with little support. Hence the need to dump the product to DL. The A320NEO and 737MAX are trend setters.


Well my friend, quite the opposite I think. The C-Series IS a trend-setter and game-changer, hence why it is such a bothersome pain in the butt to Boeing. They simply don't have a similar programme to fight back with in that very same field. When the US cannot fight back on equal terms they start a war of some kind, in this case a protectionist tax war.
Besides, calling a 737MAX a trend setter is laughable to no end. The engines may be great and provide better fuel burn, but the 737 is a Jurassic aircraft. The fact that they are selling like hot cakes (and the A320 neo as well) is simply because there is NO alternative: it's a duopoly that has made aviation technology stagnate.
 
uta999
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Re: Future of Bombardier Commercial Aerospace?

Tue Oct 10, 2017 7:59 am

oldannyboy wrote:
CX747 wrote:
The CSeries is NOT a trend setter. It is a seriously troubled program with little support. Hence the need to dump the product to DL. The A320NEO and 737MAX are trend setters.


Well my friend, quite the opposite I think. The C-Series IS a trend-setter and game-changer, hence why it is such a bothersome pain in the butt to Boeing. They simply don't have a similar programme to fight back with in that very same field. When the US cannot fight back on equal terms they start a war of some kind, in this case a protectionist tax war.
Besides, calling a 737MAX a trend setter is laughable to no end. The engines may be great and provide better fuel burn, but the 737 is a Jurassic aircraft. The fact that they are selling like hot cakes (and the A320 neo as well) is simply because there is NO alternative: it's a duopoly that has made aviation technology stagnate.


I agree. Where has all the innovation and design gone? Since the 1960s, absolutely nothing has changed in aircraft design. Yes they have shed a few pounds, but the passengers and their luggage has got heavier. Concorde was the only variation on a very bland theme. Are A & B still going to be rolling out the 737 and A320s in 2050? I really think they are.
Your computer just got better
 
r2rho
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Re: Future of Bombardier Commercial Aerospace?

Tue Oct 10, 2017 10:18 am

The C-Series IS a trend-setter and game-changer, hence why it is such a bothersome pain in the butt to Boeing.

Without the CSeries, there would have been no A320NEO. Without the A320NEO, there would have been no 737MAX. The CSeries may be losing out in the battle, due to the inherent difficulties of breaking into a duopoly, but it is the only real innovator here.
 
oldannyboy
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Re: Future of Bombardier Commercial Aerospace?

Tue Oct 10, 2017 10:37 am

r2rho wrote:
The C-Series IS a trend-setter and game-changer, hence why it is such a bothersome pain in the butt to Boeing.

Without the CSeries, there would have been no A320NEO. Without the A320NEO, there would have been no 737MAX. The CSeries may be losing out in the battle, due to the inherent difficulties of breaking into a duopoly, but it is the only real innovator here.


:checkmark:

I hope others wake up to realize this as well.

There's so much protectionist hate going against this excellent product here on A.net and I simply don't get how and why protectionist politics get in the way of a passion for aviation....
 
AirbusCanada
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Re: Future of Bombardier Commercial Aerospace?

Tue Oct 10, 2017 1:42 pm

r2rho wrote:
The C-Series IS a trend-setter and game-changer, hence why it is such a bothersome pain in the butt to Boeing.

Without the CSeries, there would have been no A320NEO. Without the A320NEO, there would have been no 737MAX. The CSeries may be losing out in the battle, due to the inherent difficulties of breaking into a duopoly, but it is the only real innovator here.


Don't forget without the Cseries there would be no GTF or LEAF engine.
 
PPVRA
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Re: Future of Bombardier Commercial Aerospace?

Tue Oct 10, 2017 2:23 pm

AirbusCanada wrote:
r2rho wrote:
The C-Series IS a trend-setter and game-changer, hence why it is such a bothersome pain in the butt to Boeing.

Without the CSeries, there would have been no A320NEO. Without the A320NEO, there would have been no 737MAX. The CSeries may be losing out in the battle, due to the inherent difficulties of breaking into a duopoly, but it is the only real innovator here.


Don't forget without the Cseries there would be no GTF or LEAF engine.


BS. At the most, it was a catalyst that anticipated the launch of the NEOs. Pratt has been working on GTFs for quite some time.
"If goods do not cross borders, soldiers will" - Frederic Bastiat
 
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FA9295
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Re: Future of Bombardier Commercial Aerospace?

Tue Oct 10, 2017 2:45 pm

Heh, this would work out wonderfully in Boeing's favor... ;-)
 
AirbusCanada
Posts: 647
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Re: Future of Bombardier Commercial Aerospace?

Tue Oct 10, 2017 3:38 pm

PPVRA wrote:
AirbusCanada wrote:
r2rho wrote:
Without the CSeries, there would have been no A320NEO. Without the A320NEO, there would have been no 737MAX. The CSeries may be losing out in the battle, due to the inherent difficulties of breaking into a duopoly, but it is the only real innovator here.


Don't forget without the Cseries there would be no GTF or LEAF engine.


BS. At the most, it was a catalyst that anticipated the launch of the NEOs. Pratt has been working on GTFs for quite some time.


Yet, the A320NEO magically evolved form "working with GTF Quite some time" to "when can we hang the GTF in to 320" as soon as the CSeries was launched.

Without the CSeries, there won't be any NEO/MAX/E2, and no commercial application of GTF for another decade or so.
 
pinsent
Posts: 78
Joined: Fri Jul 06, 2001 10:22 pm

Re: Future of Bombardier Commercial Aerospace?

Tue Oct 10, 2017 4:10 pm

AirbusCanada wrote:
r2rho wrote:
The C-Series IS a trend-setter and game-changer, hence why it is such a bothersome pain in the butt to Boeing.

Without the CSeries, there would have been no A320NEO. Without the A320NEO, there would have been no 737MAX. The CSeries may be losing out in the battle, due to the inherent difficulties of breaking into a duopoly, but it is the only real innovator here.


Don't forget without the Cseries there would be no GTF or LEAF engine.


That's not fully correct. The Lycoming ALF502R on the old BAe146's were GTF's if I remember.
 
VSMUT
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Re: Future of Bombardier Commercial Aerospace?

Tue Oct 10, 2017 4:34 pm

pinsent wrote:
AirbusCanada wrote:
r2rho wrote:
Without the CSeries, there would have been no A320NEO. Without the A320NEO, there would have been no 737MAX. The CSeries may be losing out in the battle, due to the inherent difficulties of breaking into a duopoly, but it is the only real innovator here.


Don't forget without the Cseries there would be no GTF or LEAF engine.


That's not fully correct. The Lycoming ALF502R on the old BAe146's were GTF's if I remember.


And the ill-fated superfan for the A340. The GTF was going to happen sooner or later, it would be presumptuous to claim that any particular aircraft bears the responsibility for its emergence. Airbus, Bombardier, Embraer and Boeing will all have been in long-term discussions with P&W about the engine dating back over 20 years, well before the A320NEO or C-series came to fruition.

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