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enilria
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OAG Changes 10/8/2017: VX Gone, Big SJU Cuts, AS Suspends PDX-MCI/STL for Winter

Sun Oct 08, 2017 1:03 pm

FAQ

WHAT IS THIS REPORT?
This compares departures for sale THIS WEEK for the stated period versus what was for sale LAST WEEK...It does NOT compare to last year or now (UNLESS OTHERWISE STATED).

THE SCHEDULES SHOWN HERE CHANGE AFTER YOU POST???
-To improve is to change; to be perfect is to change often---Winston Churchill. This is data the carriers filed at the point in time it was captured. It's changed since then. You are just going to have to live with it.

HOW DO I READ IT?
XXX-YYY DEC 4>5 JAN 4>5 ; means that the listed airline changed the frequency between the two airports to add from 4 to 5 roundtrips in December and January. No other months were changed. I only list one direction, although it is possible the listed change is only one way. It is too difficult to average the two directions. I assume the change is roundtrip and that is most often the case.

WHERE ARE SEATS SHOWN?
They aren't. This only shows departures.

HOW ARE THE DAILY DEPARTURES CALCULATED?
This report uses total operations for the month listed, divided over the days in the month.

WHAT ARE THE FRACTIONAL FLIGHTS?
Flights that do not operate every day of the month create fractional service. In most cases flights are rounded, but in the case of international service or markets with low frequency, fractions are shown. For example, if a flight operates 4 times in April it will show 4/30=0.133=0.1. Also , a flight that only operates once per week may vary between 0.1 and 0.2 because a weekday may repeat either 4 or 5 times depending on the month.

WHAT ABOUT CARRIERS THAT DON'T PUBLISH A SCHEDULE 9 MONTHS IN ADVANCE?
Most airlines publish schedules 11 months in advance. This report covers the next 9 months. That avoids seeing schedules as they are loaded. Several LCCs load their schedules less than 9 months into the future. I remove the schedule adds if I see them and show a year over year (YOY) comparison if I notice them.

THOSE FLIGHTS AREN'T DELTA, THEY ARE SKYWEST
This report only shows the marketing code. It is too complicated to show all the operators.

THE FREQUENCIES MAY HAVE CHANGED AS YOU SHOW, BUT THE SEATS DIDNT CHANGE BECAUSE OF EQUIPMENT SWAPS
That is a natural weakness of a frequency based report, but it provides something to discuss below.

THIS LOOKS LIKE AN ERROR?
The carriers file the schedules. They do make mistakes. Most of the mistakes I have seen are either related to code shares not being marked as "duplicates" or carriers filing flights with invalid data such as equipment codes that are not standard. This causes flights to not appear.

CHARTERS?
Lately charters have been showing up in the database. I have no idea if that will continue.

I marked some of the ones I thought were interesting with an "*".

4O ORD-MEX JAN 1.7>1.9

9X BFD-PIT JAN 3>4
9X BWI-HGR JAN 1.5>3

AA CLT-DAB FEB 3>4 MAR 3>4 APR 3>4
AA CLT-HPN FEB 3>4 MAR 3>4 APR 3>4
AA CLT-JAN FEB 4>3 MAR 4>3 APR 4>3
AA DFW-JAC APR 0.1>1.0 MAY 0>1.0
AA DFW-PSP JAN 1.5>3 FEB 1.0>3 MAR 1.0>3
*AA PHL-DSM MAY 0>1.8 JUN 0>2
*AA PHL-MSN MAY 0>0.9 JUN 0>1.0
*AA PHL-OMA MAY 0>1.8 JUN 0>2
*AA PHL-SAT MAR 0>1.0 APR 0>1.0 MAY 0>1.0 JUN 0>1.0
AA PHX-BOI JAN 3>4 FEB 2>3 MAR 2>3 APR 2>3 MAY 2>3 JUN 2>3
AA PHX-EWR FEB 4>3 MAR 4>3 APR 4>3 MAY 4>3 JUN 4>3
AA PHX-LAX JAN 9>8 FEB 9>7 MAR 9>7 APR 9>7 MAY 9>7 JUN 9>7
AA PHX-LBB JAN 1.0>1.8 FEB 1.0>2 MAR 1.0>2 APR 1.0>2 MAY 1.0>2 JUN 1.0>2
AA PHX-MAF JAN 1.0>1.8 FEB 1.0>2 MAR 1.0>2 APR 1.0>2 MAY 1.0>2 JUN 1.0>2

*AB BOS-DUS NOV 0.6>0 DEC 0.6>0 JAN 0.2>0 MAR 0.4>0 MAY 1.0>0 JUN 1.0>0
*AB JFK-DUS NOV 2>0 DEC 2>0 JAN 1.6>0 FEB 1.6>0 MAR 2>0 APR 2>0 MAY 2>0 JUN 2>0
*AB JFK-TXL NOV 1.0>0 DEC 1.0>0 JAN 1.0>0 FEB 1.0>0 MAR 1.0>0 APR 1.0>0 MAY 1.0>0 JUN 1.0>0
*AB LAX-DUS NOV 0.6>0 DEC 0.6>0 JAN 0.6>0 FEB 0.6>0 MAR 0.5>0 APR 0.6>0 MAY 1.0>0 JUN 1.0>0
*AB MIA-TXL NOV 0.7>0 DEC 0.7>0 JAN 0.7>0 FEB 0.7>0 MAR 0.7>0 APR 0.5>0
*AB ORD-DUS MAY 0.7>0 JUN 0.7>0
*AB ORD-TXL NOV 0.9>0 DEC 0.9>0 JAN 0.7>0 FEB 0.7>0 MAR 0.9>0 APR 0.9>0 MAY 1.0>0 JUN 1.0>0
*AB RSW-DUS NOV 0.6>0 DEC 0.6>0 JAN 0.5>0 FEB 0.4>0 MAR 0.5>0 APR 0.4>0 MAY 0.5>0 JUN 0.4>0
*AB SFO-DUS NOV 0.7>0 DEC 0.7>0 JAN 0.6>0 FEB 0.6>0 MAR 0.7>0 APR 0.7>0 MAY 1.0>0 JUN 1.0>0
*AF SEA-CDG APR 0>0.4 MAY 0>0.4 JUN 0>0.6

VX Network Conversion
AS AUS-SFO MAY 0>1.9 JUN 0>2
AS BNA-SFO MAY 0>1.0 JUN 0>1.0
AS BOS-LAX MAY 0>3 JUN 0>3
AS BOS-SFO MAY 0>4 JUN 0>4
AS BWI-SFO MAY 0>1.0 JUN 0>1.0
AS DAL-LAX MAY 0>3 JUN 0>3
AS DAL-SFO MAY 0>3 JUN 0>3
AS DCA-SFO MAY 0>1.0 JUN 0>1.0
AS DEN-SFO MAY 0>3 JUN 0>3
AS EWR-LAX APR 0>0.7 MAY 0>4 JUN 0>4
AS EWR-SFO APR 0>0.7 MAY 0>4 JUN 0>4
AS FLL-LAX MAY 0>3 JUN 0>1.9
AS FLL-SFO MAY 0>1.2 JUN 0>1.0
AS HNL-LAX MAY 0>1.0 JUN 0>1.0
AS HNL-SFO MAY 0>1.0 JUN 0>1.0
AS IAD-LAX MAY 0>2 JUN 0>2
AS IAD-SFO MAY 0>3 JUN 0>3
AS IND-SFO MAY 0>1.0 JUN 0>1.0
AS JFK-LAS MAY 0>1.0 JUN 0>1.0
AS JFK-LAX APR 0>1.1 MAY 0>6 JUN 0>6
AS JFK-SFO APR 0>0.9 MAY 0>5 JUN 0>5
AS KOA-SFO MAY 0>1.0 JUN 0>1.0
AS LAS-LAX APR 0>0.8 MAY 0>5 JUN 0>5
AS LAS-SFO APR 0>1.2 MAY 0>7 JUN 0>7
AS LAX-CUN APR 0>0.2 MAY 0>0.8 JUN 0>1.0
AS LAX-MCO MAY 0>1.0 JUN 0>1.0
AS LAX-OGG MAY 0>1.0 JUN 0>1.0
AS LAX-ORD MAY 0>2.0 JUN 0>2
AS LAX-PHL MAY 0>1.0 JUN 0>1.0
AS LAX-PVR MAR 1.7>1.5 MAY 1.3>1.5
AS LAX-SFO APR 0>3 MAY 0>11 JUN 0>11
AS LAX-ZIH APR 0.3>0.7 MAY 0.3>0.5
AS MCO-SFO MAY 0>1.0 JUN 0>1.0
AS MSY-SFO MAY 0>1.0 JUN 0>1.0
AS OGG-SFO MAY 0>1.1 JUN 0>1.2
AS ORD-SFO MAY 0>3 JUN 0>3
*AS PDX-BZN FEB 0.9>0 MAR 1.0>0.7
AS PDX-GEG FEB 8>7
*AS PDX-MCI JAN 0.9>0 FEB 1.0>0 MAR 1.0>0.7
AS PDX-RNO FEB 3>2
AS PDX-SFO MAY 5>8 JUN 5>8
*AS PDX-STL JAN 0.8>0 FEB 0.9>0 MAR 0.9>0.7
AS PHL-SFO MAY 0>1.0 JUN 0>1.0
AS PSP-SFO MAY 0>3 JUN 0>2
AS RDU-SFO MAY 0>1.0 JUN 0>1.0
AS SAN-SFO APR 0>1.1 MAY 0>6 JUN 0>6
AS SEA-BOI FEB 8>7
AS SEA-DTW MAR 1.7>1.0
AS SEA-GEG FEB 15>14
AS SEA-LAS MAY 10>11
AS SEA-LAX APR 13>15 MAY 13>19 JUN 13>16
AS SEA-ONT MAR 2>3
AS SEA-SFO APR 9>10 MAY 9>13 JUN 9>13
AS SEA-YEG FEB 3>2
AS SEA-YKM FEB 4>3
AS SEA-YVR FEB 5>4
AS SEA-YYC JAN 3>2 FEB 3>2
AS SEA-YYJ FEB 4>3
AS SFO-CUN MAY 0>0.1 JUN 0>0.2
AS SFO-PVR MAY 1.1>1.4 JUN 1.2>1.5
AS SFO-SJD APR 0.7>0.9 MAY 0.7>1.6 JUN 0.7>1.7

B0 EWR-CDG NOV 1.5>1.2

B6 BOS-SXM MAY 0.3>0 JUN 0.1>0
B6 JFK-SXM MAY 1.1>1.0

CI SFO-TPE FEB 1.6>1.4 MAR 1.6>1.5

CM IAD-PTY JUN 2>3
CM ORD-PTY JUN 2>3

DL ATL-AVL APR 6>7
DL ATL-EYW JAN 6>5 FEB 6>5
DL ATL-RST FEB 1.3>0.9
*DL ATL-SJU NOV 4>2.0 DEC 5>2 JAN 5>2 FEB 4>2 MAR 4>2
DL DTW-ITH NOV 1.9>3 MAR 3>1.3 APR 3>1.0 MAY 3>1.0 JUN 3>1.0
DL DTW-MQT DEC 0.8>0.5 JAN 0.9>0 FEB 0.9>0 MAR 1.8>1.0 APR 1.9>1.0 MAY 1.9>1.0 JUN 1.8>1.0
*DL DTW-SJU DEC 0.4>0 JAN 0.3>0 FEB 0.1>0 MAR 0.2>0 APR 0.1>0
DL EWR-AMS MAR 0.6>0.3 APR 1.0>0 MAY 1.0>0 JUN 1.0>0
DL HNL-LAS FEB 0.2>0.1
DL HNL-NRT MAR 1.4>1.5 APR 1.0>1.1
*DL JFK-LHR APR 3>2 MAY 3>2 JUN 3>2
*DL JFK-SJU NOV 3>2.0 DEC 4>2 JAN 4>2 FEB 3>2 MAR 3>2
DL LAX-DEN MAR 5>4 APR 5>4 MAY 5>4 JUN 5>4
DL LAX-SMF MAR 6>5
DL MSP-OKC FEB 1.3>0.9
*DL MSP-SJU DEC 0.2>0 JAN 0.3>0 FEB 0.4>0 MAR 0.6>0 APR 0.2>0
DL SEA-AUS FEB 1.2>0.9
DL SEA-CVG MAR 0>0.8
DL SEA-FLL MAR 0.4>0.3
DL SEA-MSY MAR 0.3>0.2
DL SEA-PSP FEB 1.4>1.0
DL SLC-EWR APR 1.4>1.0
DL SLC-TPA MAR 0.0>1.0

EI JFK-SNN MAR 0.2>0.5
*EI PHL-DUB MAR 0>0.1 APR 0>0.6 MAY 0>0.5 JUN 0>0.6

F9 DEN-DFW NOV 1.0>1.8
F9 DEN-PHL FEB 1.0>0.5 MAR 1.0>0
Not a good start for ISP
*F9 ISP-MIA DEC 2>1.0 JAN 2>1.0 FEB 2>1.0 MAR 2>1.0 APR 0.5>0.2
F9 MCO-CUN NOV 1.0>0.8 DEC 1.0>0.7
*F9 MIA-SJU NOV 1.0>0 DEC 1.0>0 JAN 1.0>0 FEB 1.0>0 MAR 1.0>0 APR 0.2>0

*HY JFK-TAS APR 0>0.3 MAY 0>0.3 JUN 0>0.3

J2 JFK-GYD APR 0>0.3 MAY 0>0.3 JUN 0>0.3

JJ JFK-GRU MAR 1.3>1.5

KL JFK-AMS MAR 1.9>3 APR 2>3 MAY 2>3 JUN 2>3
*KL MIA-AMS APR 0.4>0 MAY 0.4>0

M5 BFI-ESD DEC 2>1.3 JAN 0>2 FEB 0>2 MAR 0>1.4 APR 0>1.0 MAY 0>1.0 JUN 0>1.0
M5 BFI-FRD NOV 1.3>0.8 MAR 0.3>0.1
M5 ESD-FRD DEC 2>1.3 JAN 1.0>3 FEB 1.0>3 MAR 0.3>3 APR 0>2 MAY 0>2 JUN 0>2
M5 KEH-LKE NOV 0>1.5 DEC 0>1.6 JAN 0>1.8 FEB 0>1.8 MAR 0>1.1
M5 LKE-LKE MAR 0>1.0 APR 0>1.0
M5 LKE-WSX NOV 0>1.5 DEC 0>1.6 JAN 0>1.8 FEB 0>1.8 MAR 0>1.1
M5 LKE-YWH NOV 0>1.5 DEC 0>1.6 JAN 0>1.8 FEB 0>1.8 MAR 0>1.1

NZ IAH-AKL APR 0.7>1.0 MAY 0.7>0.9 JUN 0.7>0.9

*S4 BOS-LIS APR 0.1>0 MAY 0.1>0 JUN 0.3>0
S4 BOS-PDL APR 1.0>1.1 MAY 1.0>1.2 JUN 1.3>1.6

SY MSP-MBJ FEB 0.8>0.9

*TR HNL-KIX DEC 0>0.2 JAN 0>0.6 FEB 0>0.6 MAR 0>0.6 APR 0>0.6 MAY 0>0.5 JUN 0>0.6

UA DEN-ASE APR 6>7
UA HNL-MAJ FEB 0.4>0.6 MAR 0.4>0.5 APR 0.4>0.6 MAY 0.4>0.5 JUN 0.4>0.6
UA LAX-ASE APR 1.2>2
UA ORD-ASE APR 1.3>3

VS MCO-LGW MAY 1.7>1.8

Y4 DEN-GDL JAN 0.5>0.7
Y4 JFK-MEX DEC 1.9>1.7
Y4 LAX-QRO NOV 0.3>0.1 DEC 0.3>0.2 JAN 0.3>0.1 FEB 0.3>0.1 MAR 0.3>0.1 APR 0.3>0.2 MAY 0.3>0.1 JUN 0.3>0.1
Y4 LAX-ZCL NOV 0.7>0.6
Y4 MDW-ZCL NOV 0.4>0.3
Y4 ONT-GDL NOV 0.8>0.7
Y4 ORD-MEX NOV 0.9>0.8
Y4 SFO-GDL NOV 0.6>0.4
Y4 SJC-GDL NOV 1.0>0.8

ZK LAX-PRC MAR 0.7>1.7 APR 0.3>1.7 MAY 0.3>1.7 JUN 0.3>1.7
ZK PGA-PHX MAR 1.7>3 APR 1.4>3 MAY 1.4>3 JUN 1.4>3
 
usairways85
Posts: 4015
Joined: Fri Nov 16, 2001 11:59 am

Re: OAG Changes 10/8/2017: VX Gone, Big SJU Cuts, AS Suspends PDX-MCI/STL for Winter

Sun Oct 08, 2017 1:12 pm

enilria wrote:
F9 DEN-DFW NOV 1.0>1.8
F9 DEN-PHL FEB 1.0>0.5 MAR 1.0>0
Not a good start for ISP
*F9 ISP-MIA DEC 2>1.0 JAN 2>1.0 FEB 2>1.0 MAR 2>1.0 APR 0.5>0.2
F9 MCO-CUN NOV 1.0>0.8 DEC 1.0>0.7
*F9 MIA-SJU NOV 1.0>0 DEC 1.0>0 JAN 1.0>0 FEB 1.0>0 MAR 1.0>0 APR 0.2>0

Man, DEN-PHL fluctuates a ton. I suppose this is a reallocation of capacity during spring break and DEN-PHL will be back by May.

I noticed that the SJU-PHL redeye operated this morning (after the Sept suspension) and I was surprised. I assume that bookings must be weak.
 
FLYKTPA
Posts: 422
Joined: Wed Aug 03, 2016 4:56 pm

Re: OAG Changes 10/8/2017: VX Gone, Big SJU Cuts, AS Suspends PDX-MCI/STL for Winter

Sun Oct 08, 2017 1:13 pm

DL SLC-TPA MAR 0.0>1.0
So it looks like they decided not to cut the route after all...
Huge fan of Tampa International Airport
 
MIAFLLPBIFlyer
Posts: 351
Joined: Mon Jul 03, 2017 8:25 pm

Re: OAG Changes 10/8/2017: VX Gone, Big SJU Cuts, AS Suspends PDX-MCI/STL for Winter

Sun Oct 08, 2017 1:14 pm

enilria wrote:
FAQ


DL SEA-FLL MAR 0.4>0.3

*F9 ISP-MIA DEC 2>1.0 JAN 2>1.0 FEB 2>1.0 MAR 2>1.0 APR 0.5>0.2
F9 MCO-CUN NOV 1.0>0.8 DEC 1.0>0.7
*F9 MIA-SJU NOV 1.0>0 DEC 1.0>0 JAN 1.0>0 FEB 1.0>0 MAR 1.0>0 APR 0.2>0



*KL MIA-AMS APR 0.4>0 MAY 0.4>0




On DL SEA-FLL this route is lasting longer than I anticipated even as a seasonal sub-daily service. Must be getting decent loads from cruise traffic.

The F9 MIA cuts are worrying given routes have come and gone in the last two years on Frontier. With the airline consistently expanding planes are always in demand at other stations.

The KL MIA-AMS route has been on-again off-again since 2001. I hope this isn't a sign its off again and just a seasonal pull down (but even that honestly is a bad sign).
 
wnflyguy
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Joined: Thu Feb 10, 2011 7:58 pm

Re: OAG Changes 10/8/2017: VX Gone, Big SJU Cuts, AS Suspends PDX-MCI/STL for Winter

Sun Oct 08, 2017 1:51 pm

F9 ISP-MIA cut goes had In hand with the temporary MIA-SJU cut. Same plane used for both flights now being relocated since SJU is a disaster zone
my post are my opinion only and not those of southwest airlines and or airtran airlines.
 
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AVENSAB727
Posts: 1345
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Re: OAG Changes 10/8/2017: VX Gone, Big SJU Cuts, AS Suspends PDX-MCI/STL for Winter

Sun Oct 08, 2017 2:00 pm

NZ IAH-AKL APR 0.7>1.0 MAY 0.7>0.9 JUN 0.7>0.9

*S

Looks like NZ going daily on its IAH run year round.
Always look on the bright side of Life!
 
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STT757
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Joined: Tue Mar 28, 2000 1:14 am

Re: OAG Changes 10/8/2017: VX Gone, Big SJU Cuts, AS Suspends PDX-MCI/STL for Winter

Sun Oct 08, 2017 2:04 pm

Is EWR-AMS going back to KLM? Would love to see them and Air France back at EWR.
Last edited by STT757 on Sun Oct 08, 2017 2:05 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Eastern Air lines flt # 701, EWR-MCO Boeing 757
 
gwrudolph
Posts: 395
Joined: Sat Sep 13, 2008 3:46 pm

Re: OAG Changes 10/8/2017: VX Gone, Big SJU Cuts, AS Suspends PDX-MCI/STL for Winter

Sun Oct 08, 2017 2:05 pm

Thanks as always for putting this summary together--I really like looking at it every Sunday morning! One question: In the title, it says "VX Gone." What does that mean? I see no schedule changes or mentions for VX in the actual body of the post.
 
Jet-lagged
Posts: 874
Joined: Mon Mar 04, 2002 11:58 pm

Re: OAG Changes 10/8/2017: VX Gone, Big SJU Cuts, AS Suspends PDX-MCI/STL for Winter

Sun Oct 08, 2017 2:14 pm

gwrudolph wrote:
Thanks as always for putting this summary together--I really like looking at it every Sunday morning! One question: In the title, it says "VX Gone." What does that mean? I see no schedule changes or mentions for VX in the actual body of the post.


All those AS flights.

And ditto your comment these are great, fun reports.
 
jb1087xna
Posts: 433
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Re: OAG Changes 10/8/2017: VX Gone, Big SJU Cuts, AS Suspends PDX-MCI/STL for Winter

Sun Oct 08, 2017 2:14 pm

gwrudolph wrote:
Thanks as always for putting this summary together--I really like looking at it every Sunday morning! One question: In the title, it says "VX Gone." What does that mean? I see no schedule changes or mentions for VX in the actual body of the post.


I'm assuming that VX routes are now falling under AS instead of being on their own.
Next up: XNA-ATL-PWM-ATL-XNA
 
TW870
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Joined: Fri Jan 25, 2013 2:01 am

Re: OAG Changes 10/8/2017: VX Gone, Big SJU Cuts, AS Suspends PDX-MCI/STL for Winter

Sun Oct 08, 2017 2:14 pm

*DL JFK-LHR APR 3>2 MAY 3>2 JUN 3>2

Looks like the schedule on this is going to be 1xVS 346, 4xVS 333, 2xDL 332. Quite a bit of talk about this in the other product realignment thread.

Just for comparison today it is 3xVS 346, 1xVS 333, 1xVS 789, 3xDL 763
 
RL757PVD
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Re: OAG Changes 10/8/2017: VX Gone, Big SJU Cuts, AS Suspends PDX-MCI/STL for Winter

Sun Oct 08, 2017 2:38 pm

I dont think the F9 MIA cuts are too significant, one is SJU which should speak for itself, the other is taking ISP-MIA from 2x to 1x... 2x to start is pretty aggressive for a route that never existed (plus the new yorkers on long island are probably going to PBI/Boca area whereas those in Manhattan will be going to MIA). Correct me if im wrong but wasnt the 2nd MIA added in to the schedule later like a month ago?
Experience is what you get when what you thought would work out didn't!
 
HPRamper
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Re: OAG Changes 10/8/2017: VX Gone, Big SJU Cuts, AS Suspends PDX-MCI/STL for Winter

Sun Oct 08, 2017 2:42 pm

Those PDX suspensions are 175 flying I believe, unless they've been upgauged and I didn't notice. Probably being pulled back to reinforce SEA in an attempt to stem the bleeding at QX.
 
Airbii
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Joined: Fri Dec 11, 2015 12:48 am

Re: OAG Changes 10/8/2017: VX Gone, Big SJU Cuts, AS Suspends PDX-MCI/STL for Winter

Sun Oct 08, 2017 2:48 pm

How often do these changes get published? This one is 10/08/2017. Is it weekly? Monthly?


How did you get access to these OAG changes? And how does one get these OAG changes (how can I get it)?
 
gwrudolph
Posts: 395
Joined: Sat Sep 13, 2008 3:46 pm

Re: OAG Changes 10/8/2017: VX Gone, Big SJU Cuts, AS Suspends PDX-MCI/STL for Winter

Sun Oct 08, 2017 3:00 pm

jb1087xna wrote:
gwrudolph wrote:
Thanks as always for putting this summary together--I really like looking at it every Sunday morning! One question: In the title, it says "VX Gone." What does that mean? I see no schedule changes or mentions for VX in the actual body of the post.


I'm assuming that VX routes are now falling under AS instead of being on their own.


Ah ok. Got it! Thanks for the clarification!
 
phluser
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Re: OAG Changes 10/8/2017: VX Gone, Big SJU Cuts, AS Suspends PDX-MCI/STL for Winter

Sun Oct 08, 2017 3:33 pm

RL757PVD wrote:
I dont think the F9 MIA cuts are too significant, one is SJU which should speak for itself, the other is taking ISP-MIA from 2x to 1x... 2x to start is pretty aggressive for a route that never existed (plus the new yorkers on long island are probably going to PBI/Boca area whereas those in Manhattan will be going to MIA). Correct me if im wrong but wasnt the 2nd MIA added in to the schedule later like a month ago?


The upgrade to 2x is recent (and maybe too aggressive) though I'd think 2x would be more needed in March than in December. Isn't March busier with Spring Break? And in April it cuts to less than 1x daily which is soft. While it might have operated as ISP-MIA-SJU, I don't know why F9 can't operate just ISP-MIA without MIA-SJU, unless it was depending on a significant number of 1-stop through passengers (which it really shouldn't given the 550 miles extra the pax goes to stop via MIA).
 
ucdtim17
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Re: OAG Changes 10/8/2017: VX Gone, Big SJU Cuts, AS Suspends PDX-MCI/STL for Winter

Sun Oct 08, 2017 3:36 pm

HPRamper wrote:
Those PDX suspensions are 175 flying I believe, unless they've been upgauged and I didn't notice. Probably being pulled back to reinforce SEA in an attempt to stem the bleeding at QX.


More like pulled back to start new routes at SFO/other CA airports. BUR and AUS have gone mainline though.
 
factsonly
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Re: OAG Changes 10/8/2017: VX Gone, Big SJU Cuts, AS Suspends PDX-MCI/STL for Winter

Sun Oct 08, 2017 3:43 pm

STT757 wrote:
Is EWR-AMS going back to KLM? Would love to see them and Air France back at EWR.


KLM increases AMS-JFK to 3x daily:

- AMS 09.55 - JFK 12.16 DL47 B763 Daily
- AMS 11.05 - JFK 13.15 DL49 A333 Daily
- AMS 13:25 - JFK 15:25 KL641 B744/B772 Daily
- AMS 14:30 - JFK 16:30 KL645 B789 Daily ex.Sun = NEW
- AMS 17:20 - JFK 19:25 KL643 B789/B74M Daily

It seems this replaces AMS-EWR which is dropped by Delta.

However....wild guess....the JV could decide to have 9W re-instate India-AMS-EWR, as they will than offer BLR, BOM, DEL to USA again on their own metal in competition with UA.
 
IPFreely
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Re: OAG Changes 10/8/2017: VX Gone, Big SJU Cuts, AS Suspends PDX-MCI/STL for Winter

Sun Oct 08, 2017 4:00 pm

enilria wrote:
*DL ATL-SJU NOV 4>2.0 DEC 5>2 JAN 5>2 FEB 4>2 MAR 4>2
*DL DTW-SJU DEC 0.4>0 JAN 0.3>0 FEB 0.1>0 MAR 0.2>0 APR 0.1>0
*DL JFK-SJU NOV 3>2.0 DEC 4>2 JAN 4>2 FEB 3>2 MAR 3>2


Atlanta and New York only get reductions in service to San Juan while Detroit gets all service completely eliminated? Very unfortunate for DTW.
 
FSDan
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Re: OAG Changes 10/8/2017: VX Gone, Big SJU Cuts, AS Suspends PDX-MCI/STL for Winter

Sun Oct 08, 2017 4:23 pm

IPFreely wrote:
enilria wrote:
*DL ATL-SJU NOV 4>2.0 DEC 5>2 JAN 5>2 FEB 4>2 MAR 4>2
*DL DTW-SJU DEC 0.4>0 JAN 0.3>0 FEB 0.1>0 MAR 0.2>0 APR 0.1>0
*DL JFK-SJU NOV 3>2.0 DEC 4>2 JAN 4>2 FEB 3>2 MAR 3>2


Atlanta and New York only get reductions in service to San Juan while Detroit gets all service completely eliminated? Very unfortunate for DTW.


You sound surprised by this... DTW-SJU is only a seasonal weekly flight to begin with. JFK-SJU and ATL-SJU were each 4-5 daily. MSP-SJU (which was also a seasonal Saturday-only flight) is also gone. The demand from DTW and MSP is likely tourism-based vs. the VFR traffic from JFK and the huge volume of connections that likely is the bread and butter of the ATL-SJU route. That tourism demand is likely going to be way down for the foreseeable future.
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jerseyewr777
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Re: OAG Changes 10/8/2017: VX Gone, Big SJU Cuts, AS Suspends PDX-MCI/STL for Winter

Sun Oct 08, 2017 5:06 pm

factsonly wrote:
STT757 wrote:
Is EWR-AMS going back to KLM? Would love to see them and Air France back at EWR.


KLM increases AMS-JFK to 3x daily:

- AMS 09.55 - JFK 12.16 DL47 B763 Daily
- AMS 11.05 - JFK 13.15 DL49 A333 Daily
- AMS 13:25 - JFK 15:25 KL641 B744/B772 Daily
- AMS 14:30 - JFK 16:30 KL645 B789 Daily ex.Sun = NEW
- AMS 17:20 - JFK 19:25 KL643 B789/B74M Daily

It seems this replaces AMS-EWR which is dropped by Delta.

However....wild guess....the JV could decide to have 9W re-instate India-AMS-EWR, as they will than offer BLR, BOM, DEL to USA again on their own metal in competition with UA.


That's a good guess. 9W has already said they plan to return to New York.
 
panamair
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Re: OAG Changes 10/8/2017: VX Gone, Big SJU Cuts, AS Suspends PDX-MCI/STL for Winter

Sun Oct 08, 2017 5:13 pm

FSDan wrote:
IPFreely wrote:
enilria wrote:
*DL ATL-SJU NOV 4>2.0 DEC 5>2 JAN 5>2 FEB 4>2 MAR 4>2
*DL DTW-SJU DEC 0.4>0 JAN 0.3>0 FEB 0.1>0 MAR 0.2>0 APR 0.1>0
*DL JFK-SJU NOV 3>2.0 DEC 4>2 JAN 4>2 FEB 3>2 MAR 3>2


Atlanta and New York only get reductions in service to San Juan while Detroit gets all service completely eliminated? Very unfortunate for DTW.


You sound surprised by this... DTW-SJU is only a seasonal weekly flight to begin with. JFK-SJU and ATL-SJU were each 4-5 daily. MSP-SJU (which was also a seasonal Saturday-only flight) is also gone. The demand from DTW and MSP is likely tourism-based vs. the VFR traffic from JFK and the huge volume of connections that likely is the bread and butter of the ATL-SJU route. That tourism demand is likely going to be way down for the foreseeable future.


It's also partly a logistical issue with the JFK and ATL cuts as they don't want to have crews or planes RON in SJU for the foreseeable future; the flights that have been cut are the evening ones going down to SJU and the morning ones from SJU.
 
JayWings
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Re: OAG Changes 10/8/2017: VX Gone, Big SJU Cuts, AS Suspends PDX-MCI/STL for Winter

Sun Oct 08, 2017 5:34 pm

Wow! It's crazy to actually see all the VX routes under the AS designation. Next thing you know Chester will be on the back of an A321 NEO! Weird!! Thanks for compiling this list! I, like others, really enjoy digging through all this fun information!
 
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Re: OAG Changes 10/8/2017: VX Gone, Big SJU Cuts, AS Suspends PDX-MCI/STL for Winter

Sun Oct 08, 2017 5:37 pm

Thanks enilria
enilria wrote:
*DL ATL-SJU NOV 4>2.0 DEC 5>2 JAN 5>2 FEB 4>2 MAR 4>2
*DL DTW-SJU DEC 0.4>0 JAN 0.3>0 FEB 0.1>0 MAR 0.2>0 APR 0.1>0
*DL JFK-SJU NOV 3>2.0 DEC 4>2 JAN 4>2 FEB 3>2 MAR 3>2
*DL MSP-SJU DEC 0.2>0 JAN 0.3>0 FEB 0.4>0 MAR 0.6>0 APR 0.2>0

Looks like JFK and ATL are back by April.

I wonder if these cuts will end up going even longer than that.

B6 has 6 daily JFK-SJU + 1 to 2 daily EWR-SJU in March vs just 2 on DL and UA. Seems pretty aggressive given the conditions in SJU.
 
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Re: OAG Changes 10/8/2017: VX Gone, Big SJU Cuts, AS Suspends PDX-MCI/STL for Winter

Sun Oct 08, 2017 5:52 pm

The diaspora will still be traveling to PR, I myself will be going jn Nov. With the expected and already happeining mass exodus out of the island (some leaving for a short time others for good) we will still need links and flights from the mainland to PR. Mostly to places like MCO, TPA, PHL, BDL and JFK.
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Re: OAG Changes 10/8/2017: VX Gone, Big SJU Cuts, AS Suspends PDX-MCI/STL for Winter

Sun Oct 08, 2017 6:07 pm

JayWings wrote:

Wow! It's crazy to actually see all the VX routes under the AS designation. Next thing you know Chester will be on the back of an A321 NEO! Weird!! Thanks for compiling this list! I, like others, really enjoy digging through all this fun information!


Speaking of which and totally off topic: Has AS announced when or if they will start repainting the Airbuses? And back on topic: Yes this weekly update is always appreciated and Enilria does a great job with it.
Finally headed to DORKFEST! Sept 7, STL-LAX-PHX-STL. :cloudnine:
 
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Re: OAG Changes 10/8/2017: VX Gone, Big SJU Cuts, AS Suspends PDX-MCI/STL for Winter

Sun Oct 08, 2017 7:33 pm

Interesting that DFW to PSP is going to 3X. Is this increase seasonal only or permanent?
 
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Re: OAG Changes 10/8/2017: VX Gone, Big SJU Cuts, AS Suspends PDX-MCI/STL for Winter

Sun Oct 08, 2017 8:04 pm

Sounds like SXM might be down this year. STT might comeback soon. But I think SJU isn't going to be gone forever, but they'll have to build up their tourist base. People are just going to visit other destinations in the Caribbean.
Last edited by lavalampluva on Sun Oct 08, 2017 8:08 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: OAG Changes 10/8/2017: VX Gone, Big SJU Cuts, AS Suspends PDX-MCI/STL for Winter

Sun Oct 08, 2017 8:06 pm

OzarkD9S wrote:
JayWings wrote:

Wow! It's crazy to actually see all the VX routes under the AS designation. Next thing you know Chester will be on the back of an A321 NEO! Weird!! Thanks for compiling this list! I, like others, really enjoy digging through all this fun information!


Speaking of which and totally off topic: Has AS announced when or if they will start repainting the Airbuses? And back on topic: Yes this weekly update is always appreciated and Enilria does a great job with it.


Apparently, the next 2 321 NEO's coming online are scheduled for a different paint job (one is the ball teams plane, the other is going to be done in the "More To Love" scheme) and future deliveries will be Alaska livery. Those will be the first, but I think the majority of repainting will start in '19 and be done in fairly short order after that.
 
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Re: OAG Changes 10/8/2017: VX Gone, Big SJU Cuts, AS Suspends PDX-MCI/STL for Winter

Sun Oct 08, 2017 9:06 pm

Thanks enilria!

enilria wrote:
VX Network Conversion
AS BOS-SFO MAY 0>4 JUN 0>4


Correct me if I'm wrong, but isn't this an increase in frequency over last spring? I think VX (along with B6) were both running this 3x, with B6 recently adding a fourth frequency (and a 5th starting soon). With DL now in this market, and UA increasing capacity, this is becoming a bit of a battle ground.
 
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Re: OAG Changes 10/8/2017: VX Gone, Big SJU Cuts, AS Suspends PDX-MCI/STL for Winter

Sun Oct 08, 2017 9:13 pm

chepos wrote:
The diaspora will still be traveling to PR, I myself will be going jn Nov. With the expected and already happeining mass exodus out of the island (some leaving for a short time others for good) we will still need links and flights from the mainland to PR. Mostly to places like MCO, TPA, PHL, BDL and JFK.


Absolutely The Washington Post and NYT recently had articles speculating that the Orlando suburbs are likely to gain 100k+ new Puerto Ricans over the next few months, with South Florida and NY picking up the majority of the remaining Puerto Ricans who decide to leave indefinitely. If anything, I'd expect traffic to/from PR to increase for the next few months as people migrate to the mainland. Such an unfortunate reality.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/powerpos ... story.html

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/10/06/us/p ... .html?_r=0
 
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Re: OAG Changes 10/8/2017: VX Gone, Big SJU Cuts, AS Suspends PDX-MCI/STL for Winter

Sun Oct 08, 2017 9:25 pm

ASFlyer wrote:
OzarkD9S wrote:

JayWings wrote:



Apparently, the next 2 321 NEO's coming online are scheduled for a different paint job (one is the ball teams plane, the other is going to be done in the "More To Love" scheme) and future deliveries will be Alaska livery. Those will be the first, but I think the majority of repainting will start in '19 and be done in fairly short order after that.


Good to know, thanks!
Finally headed to DORKFEST! Sept 7, STL-LAX-PHX-STL. :cloudnine:
 
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Re: OAG Changes 10/8/2017: VX Gone, Big SJU Cuts, AS Suspends PDX-MCI/STL for Winter

Sun Oct 08, 2017 9:27 pm

*AA PHL-DSM MAY 0>1.8 JUN 0>2
*AA PHL-MSN MAY 0>0.9 JUN 0>1.0
*AA PHL-OMA MAY 0>1.8 JUN 0>2
*AA PHL-SAT MAR 0>1.0 APR 0>1.0 MAY 0>1.0 JUN 0>1.0

pretty decent expansion from PHL by AA into some heartland markets and SAT. DSM and OMA will further cement their status as decent sized AA stations (OMA I think has every hub other than DCA after this starts, and DSM has all but MIA and LAX)
 
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Re: OAG Changes 10/8/2017: VX Gone, Big SJU Cuts, AS Suspends PDX-MCI/STL for Winter

Sun Oct 08, 2017 9:32 pm

enilria wrote:
*DL ATL-SJU NOV 4>2.0 DEC 5>2 JAN 5>2 FEB 4>2 MAR 4>2
*DL DTW-SJU DEC 0.4>0 JAN 0.3>0 FEB 0.1>0 MAR 0.2>0 APR 0.1>0
*DL JFK-SJU NOV 3>2.0 DEC 4>2 JAN 4>2 FEB 3>2 MAR 3>2


It will be interesting to see when these route frequencies are increased again. Thanks enilria, I appreciate this post every Sunday.
 
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Re: OAG Changes 10/8/2017: VX Gone, Big SJU Cuts, AS Suspends PDX-MCI/STL for Winter

Sun Oct 08, 2017 9:38 pm

All VX flights become AS flights on Apr 25th. That's the planned cutover date for a single 'Passenger Service System'....meaning a single reservation system. It's impressive to see the AS code on so many new routes and happy to see DAL continuing!
 
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Re: OAG Changes 10/8/2017: VX Gone, Big SJU Cuts, AS Suspends PDX-MCI/STL for Winter

Sun Oct 08, 2017 10:08 pm

Cool to see that DL on LAX-DEN will be all mainline. 5x E175 becomes 4x 717.
300 319 320 321 332 333 345 346 717 733 734 735 73G 738 739 744 752 753 762 763 772 77W 788 789 CR2 CR7 CR9 Q400 E175 DC10 MD82 MD90
AA AF AS AY AZ B6 BA BR DL F9 FI GA HA KF LH MI QX SK SN SQ UA US VY WN
 
Coalways
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Re: OAG Changes 10/8/2017: VX Gone, Big SJU Cuts, AS Suspends PDX-MCI/STL for Winter

Sun Oct 08, 2017 11:56 pm

tphuang wrote:
Thanks enilria
enilria wrote:
*DL ATL-SJU NOV 4>2.0 DEC 5>2 JAN 5>2 FEB 4>2 MAR 4>2
*DL DTW-SJU DEC 0.4>0 JAN 0.3>0 FEB 0.1>0 MAR 0.2>0 APR 0.1>0
*DL JFK-SJU NOV 3>2.0 DEC 4>2 JAN 4>2 FEB 3>2 MAR 3>2
*DL MSP-SJU DEC 0.2>0 JAN 0.3>0 FEB 0.4>0 MAR 0.6>0 APR 0.2>0

Looks like JFK and ATL are back by April.

I wonder if these cuts will end up going even longer than that.

B6 has 6 daily JFK-SJU + 1 to 2 daily EWR-SJU in
March vs just 2 on DL and UA. Seems pretty aggressive given the conditions in SJU.


Will United still be flying the daily 777 on the route? I see certain days the 767-400 is on the route.
 
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Re: OAG Changes 10/8/2017: VX Gone, Big SJU Cuts, AS Suspends PDX-MCI/STL for Winter

Mon Oct 09, 2017 12:02 am

ucdtim17 wrote:
HPRamper wrote:
Those PDX suspensions are 175 flying I believe, unless they've been upgauged and I didn't notice. Probably being pulled back to reinforce SEA in an attempt to stem the bleeding at QX.


More like pulled back to start new routes at SFO/other CA airports. BUR and AUS have gone mainline though.


ONT is also going mainline. (1x daily SkyWest E175 and 1x daily mainline B737)...
 
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Re: OAG Changes 10/8/2017: VX Gone, Big SJU Cuts, AS Suspends PDX-MCI/STL for Winter

Mon Oct 09, 2017 12:04 am

RE: SJU cuts. In addition to the reduction in tourist demand, the airport is constrained by the temporary closure of Terminal B due to wind and water damage.
 
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Re: OAG Changes 10/8/2017: VX Gone, Big SJU Cuts, AS Suspends PDX-MCI/STL for Winter

Mon Oct 09, 2017 12:21 am

jetbluefan1 wrote:
Thanks enilria!

enilria wrote:
VX Network Conversion
AS BOS-SFO MAY 0>4 JUN 0>4


Correct me if I'm wrong, but isn't this an increase in frequency over last spring? I think VX (along with B6) were both running this 3x, with B6 recently adding a fourth frequency (and a 5th starting soon). With DL now in this market, and UA increasing capacity, this is becoming a bit of a battle ground.


They might have been running 4 on BOS-SFO and 3 on BOS-LAX at some point last year + 2 on FLL-LAX and 1 on FLL-SFO. Over the winter, one of each from BOS moved to FLL. And it comes back in May I guess. I did check AS all the way out to July/August 2018 and they currently have 4 daily for BOS-SFO, which is definitely increased from 3 last year.

We will see, maybe AS thinks it can do a better job on BOS-SFO. Because from what I can see, it went from one of the most lucrative routes for VX to one where they have hard time selling FC (I see 11 of 24 empty for this Wed, 8 of 24 empty for Thurs and 13 of 24 empty for Fri). Things look even worse on FLL routes. We will see, but I don't see how AS can stay on all 4 of those routes by this point next year. And that daily JFK-LAS I think is a goner too by this point next year, most likely getting moved to a second daily JFK-SEA.

RE: SJU cuts. In addition to the reduction in tourist demand, the airport is constrained by the temporary closure of Terminal B due to wind and water damage.

That doesn't explain how B6 is maintaining its service level
 
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chepos
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Re: OAG Changes 10/8/2017: VX Gone, Big SJU Cuts, AS Suspends PDX-MCI/STL for Winter

Mon Oct 09, 2017 1:36 am

tphuang wrote:
jetbluefan1 wrote:
Thanks enilria!

enilria wrote:
VX Network Conversion
AS BOS-SFO MAY 0>4 JUN 0>4


Correct me if I'm wrong, but isn't this an increase in frequency over last spring? I think VX (along with B6) were both running this 3x, with B6 recently adding a fourth frequency (and a 5th starting soon). With DL now in this market, and UA increasing capacity, this is becoming a bit of a battle ground.


They might have been running 4 on BOS-SFO and 3 on BOS-LAX at some point last year + 2 on FLL-LAX and 1 on FLL-SFO. Over the winter, one of each from BOS moved to FLL. And it comes back in May I guess. I did check AS all the way out to July/August 2018 and they currently have 4 daily for BOS-SFO, which is definitely increased from 3 last year.

We will see, maybe AS thinks it can do a better job on BOS-SFO. Because from what I can see, it went from one of the most lucrative routes for VX to one where they have hard time selling FC (I see 11 of 24 empty for this Wed, 8 of 24 empty for Thurs and 13 of 24 empty for Fri). Things look even worse on FLL routes. We will see, but I don't see how AS can stay on all 4 of those routes by this point next year. And that daily JFK-LAS I think is a goner too by this point next year, most likely getting moved to a second daily JFK-SEA.

RE: SJU cuts. In addition to the reduction in tourist demand, the airport is constrained by the temporary closure of Terminal B due to wind and water damage.

That doesn't explain how B6 is maintaining its service level


JetBlue uses terminal A, DL uses Terminal B (which was damaged). They are temporarily using Terminal C which is used by a host of carriers.
Fly the Flag!!!!
 
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Re: OAG Changes 10/8/2017: VX Gone, Big SJU Cuts, AS Suspends PDX-MCI/STL for Winter

Mon Oct 09, 2017 1:45 am

dfwjim1 wrote:
Interesting that DFW to PSP is going to 3X. Is this increase seasonal only or permanent?


Normal seasonal numbers. Drops back down to 1x typically around mid-May. Not sure why it wasn't already 3x open for sale.

enilria wrote:
AA PHX-LBB JAN 1.0>1.8 FEB 1.0>2 MAR 1.0>2 APR 1.0>2 MAY 1.0>2 JUN 1.0>2
AA PHX-MAF JAN 1.0>1.8 FEB 1.0>2 MAR 1.0>2 APR 1.0>2 MAY 1.0>2 JUN 1.0>2

2nd daily on both starts Jan 8th. I don't think the 2nd daily MAF will stick around, at least not at its current time, the morning flight was always weak when it was originally being ran.
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Re: OAG Changes 10/8/2017: VX Gone, Big SJU Cuts, AS Suspends PDX-MCI/STL for Winter

Mon Oct 09, 2017 2:43 am

wnflyguy wrote:
F9 ISP-MIA cut goes had In hand with the temporary MIA-SJU cut. Same plane used for both flights now being relocated since SJU is a disaster zone

Good catch
gwrudolph wrote:
Thanks as always for putting this summary together--I really like looking at it every Sunday morning! One question: In the title, it says "VX Gone." What does that mean? I see no schedule changes or mentions for VX in the actual body of the post.

AS integrated the VX schedule starting in May.
Jet-lagged wrote:
And ditto your comment these are great, fun reports.

:)
jb1087xna wrote:
I'm assuming that VX routes are now falling under AS instead of being on their own.

Yes, as of May 2018
Airbii wrote:
How often do these changes get published? This one is 10/08/2017. Is it weekly? Monthly?


How did you get access to these OAG changes? And how does one get these OAG changes (how can I get it)?

This is how you get the changes. :) They have a bunch of different products and they each check the database at an interval, a month, a week, etc.
chepos wrote:
JetBlue uses terminal A, DL uses Terminal B (which was damaged). They are temporarily using Terminal C which is used by a host of carriers.

Does this imply DL is cutting because of facilities and not demand?
 
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Re: OAG Changes 10/8/2017: VX Gone, Big SJU Cuts, AS Suspends PDX-MCI/STL for Winter

Mon Oct 09, 2017 3:43 am

ucdtim17 wrote:
HPRamper wrote:
Those PDX suspensions are 175 flying I believe, unless they've been upgauged and I didn't notice. Probably being pulled back to reinforce SEA in an attempt to stem the bleeding at QX.


More like pulled back to start new routes at SFO/other CA airports. BUR and AUS have gone mainline though.


Cutbacks are related to the Embraer 175. There were multiple cuts last OAG report too and all were operated with the E175. E175 routes are being cut due to Horizon's pilot/crew shortage. Major Horizon routes that can't be flown due to the crew shortage are being flown by Skywest E175s that flew to St. Louis, Kansas City, Milwaukee, etc.
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ucdtim17
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Re: OAG Changes 10/8/2017: VX Gone, Big SJU Cuts, AS Suspends PDX-MCI/STL for Winter

Mon Oct 09, 2017 3:58 am

Max752 wrote:
ucdtim17 wrote:
HPRamper wrote:
Those PDX suspensions are 175 flying I believe, unless they've been upgauged and I didn't notice. Probably being pulled back to reinforce SEA in an attempt to stem the bleeding at QX.


More like pulled back to start new routes at SFO/other CA airports. BUR and AUS have gone mainline though.


Cutbacks are related to the Embraer 175. There were multiple cuts last OAG report too and all were operated with the E175. E175 routes are being cut due to Horizon's pilot/crew shortage. Major Horizon routes that can't be flown due to the crew shortage are being flown by Skywest E175s that flew to St. Louis, Kansas City, Milwaukee, etc.


Yet they continue to start new E175 routes in CA (SFO-ABQ, SFO-MSP, SJC-DAL, etc). SFO/California is the priority now, not PDX.
 
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Re: OAG Changes 10/8/2017: VX Gone, Big SJU Cuts, AS Suspends PDX-MCI/STL for Winter

Mon Oct 09, 2017 1:28 pm

enilria wrote:
Not a good start for ISP
*F9 ISP-MIA DEC 2>1.0 JAN 2>1.0 FEB 2>1.0 MAR 2>1.0 APR 0.5>0.2

Well, I can see that happening. Since the plane were to continue on to SJU, most people don't want to go there now. How is ISP-MSY doing? I've heard that Frontier has had sold out flights on their 230 seat A321'S ISP-RSW and ISP-TPA. ISP-MCO and ISP-PBI also seem to be a big hit.
 
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Re: OAG Changes 10/8/2017: VX Gone, Big SJU Cuts, AS Suspends PDX-MCI/STL for Winter

Mon Oct 09, 2017 1:30 pm

ucdtim17 wrote:
Max752 wrote:
ucdtim17 wrote:

More like pulled back to start new routes at SFO/other CA airports. BUR and AUS have gone mainline though.


Cutbacks are related to the Embraer 175. There were multiple cuts last OAG report too and all were operated with the E175. E175 routes are being cut due to Horizon's pilot/crew shortage. Major Horizon routes that can't be flown due to the crew shortage are being flown by Skywest E175s that flew to St. Louis, Kansas City, Milwaukee, etc.


Yet they continue to start new E175 routes in CA (SFO-ABQ, SFO-MSP, SJC-DAL, etc). SFO/California is the priority now, not PDX.

Exactly. AS seems to think that expanding in Cali is more important than defending PDX. Wouldn’t be surprised if Delta grew in PDX if it got much worse
(Thanks Enilria)
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Re: OAG Changes 10/8/2017: VX Gone, Big SJU Cuts, AS Suspends PDX-MCI/STL for Winter

Mon Oct 09, 2017 1:59 pm

ucdtim17 wrote:
SFO/California is the priority now, not PDX.


Indeed. Alaska likely perceives - correctly, in my view - that the opportunity in California is more time-limited, and that it probably has less of a competitive threat to worry about in PDX. At SFO, Alaska faces a far more organized threat from United plus the critical mass of Southwest at all three Bay Area airports. Assuming that the staffing issues truly are temporary, and much if not all of this EMB175 flying can be restored in the not too distant future, than it may well make logical sense now to concentrate more of that scarce (at least for now) capacity at the places where it's more critical short-term, especially if much or all of the losses in PDX can be backfilled with alternatives (737s, SkyWest, Q400s), albeit at lower frequency.

ahj2000 wrote:
Wouldn’t be surprised if Delta grew in PDX if it got much worse


That would surprise me. Even Delta only has so many battles it can go fight against other competitors on said competitors' "turf." Given the proximity to SEA, and all the other areas for focused growth across the network - LAX, BOS, SEA, etc. - it doesn't seem likely that Delta would do all that much adding in PDX beyond normal, structural growth across the network. If Alaska were making major cuts in SEA, that would be a totally different story, but at PDX, it's hard to imagine Delta getting to excited over a few Alaska EMB175 routes being cancelled or reduced.
 
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Re: OAG Changes 10/8/2017: VX Gone, Big SJU Cuts, AS Suspends PDX-MCI/STL for Winter

Mon Oct 09, 2017 4:33 pm

Thanks for posting this, enilria!

enilria wrote:
AA PHX-LBB JAN 1.0>1.8 FEB 1.0>2 MAR 1.0>2 APR 1.0>2 MAY 1.0>2 JUN 1.0>2
AA PHX-MAF JAN 1.0>1.8 FEB 1.0>2 MAR 1.0>2 APR 1.0>2 MAY 1.0>2 JUN 1.0>2


Comparing random dates in October and March, looks like PHX-LBB goes from 1 daily CRJ-700 each way to 2 daily CRJ-900s each way. PHX-MAF goes from 1 daily CRJ-900 each way to 2 daily CRJ-900s each way. Timings are for a morning and evening flight on each leg.

Looks to me like this is a pretty big capacity increase, and that AA must be looking to shore up loyalty in Lubbock and Midland-Odessa with added connecting options. Every little bit helps keep the AA PHX hub viable. I'm interested in others' takes... is this an indicator that connections over PHX might be approaching DFW's (since they chose to add in PHX instead of yet another DFW leg)? Or is this targeting customers who are flying UA or WN when they head west out of Lubbock or Midland-Odessa?
 
ucdtim17
Posts: 558
Joined: Fri Jun 03, 2016 6:38 pm

Re: OAG Changes 10/8/2017: VX Gone, Big SJU Cuts, AS Suspends PDX-MCI/STL for Winter

Mon Oct 09, 2017 4:48 pm

commavia wrote:
ahj2000 wrote:
Wouldn’t be surprised if Delta grew in PDX if it got much worse


That would surprise me. Even Delta only has so many battles it can go fight against other competitors on said competitors' "turf." Given the proximity to SEA, and all the other areas for focused growth across the network - LAX, BOS, SEA, etc. - it doesn't seem likely that Delta would do all that much adding in PDX beyond normal, structural growth across the network. If Alaska were making major cuts in SEA, that would be a totally different story, but at PDX, it's hard to imagine Delta getting to excited over a few Alaska EMB175 routes being cancelled or reduced.


If AS continues limping along or drawing down at PDX next year, Southwest may look for opportunities to grow there as they add planes. A strong counterpunch on AS territory as payback for the SFO/SJC expansion.

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