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LockheedBBD
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Bombardier exploring sale of aircraft programs

Sun Oct 15, 2017 10:51 pm

Reuters: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... businesses



Bombardier Inc. is seeking investors for its aerospace businesses and considering a sale of some operations, people familiar with the matter said, as a turnaround plan at the Canadian planemaker faces pressure from potentially crippling U.S. tariffs on its marquee jetliner.

The Montreal-based manufacturer is studying the disposal of assets including its Q400 turboprop and CRJ regional-jet unit, said the people, who asked not to be identified because the discussions are private. Airbus SE is among the suitors, they said, with one person saying Bombardier is also open to partnerships with other aerospace companies.

“Bombardier has neglected these products for so long,” said Richard Aboulafia, an aerospace consultant at Teal Group who adds that the Q400 may have an easier time finding a buyer than the CRJ line. “These should be worth more and should be more desirable.”



If they consider Airbus as a suitor, do you think that ATR would see value in taking over the Q400 line? ATR is already taking BBD's lunch money in the turboprop sector so I'm not sure what ATR would do with the Q400 (or why they'd want it). The article is kind of vague, it is most likely that nothing may end up happening at all. Just thought it was an interesting development. Bombardier has some decisions to make.

Any thoughts on who might be interested in any of Bombardier's aerospace assets? China/COMAC comes to mind, but I'm not sure if anyone else would be interested.
 
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Re: Bombardier exploring sale of aircraft programs

Sun Oct 15, 2017 11:19 pm

LockheedBBD wrote:
Reuters: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... businesses


If they consider Airbus as a suitor, do you think that ATR would see value in taking over the Q400 line? ATR is already taking BBD's lunch money in the turboprop sector so I'm not sure what ATR would do with the Q400 (or why they'd want it). The article is kind of vague, it is most likely that nothing may end up happening at all. Just thought it was an interesting development. Bombardier has some decisions to make.

Any thoughts on who might be interested in any of Bombardier's aerospace assets? China/COMAC comes to mind, but I'm not sure if anyone else would be interested.


I think that, IF Airbus bites, it would look a lot like the Boeing-Douglas merger, at least as far as Airbus buying the whole thing, taking what they want, and shutting most of the operation down.
The Q400 is a 100MPH faster airplane than the ATR. But it's also a 100MPH more fuel consumption airplane. I can't see Airbus continuing to build both.

On the other hand, I think you've hit the nail square on the head with the China idea. I fully expect that China would be all over that deal like flies on...honey.

I would hope that Airbus would maintain the C-series program, giving them something to offer below the A320 family. And it'd fully kick Boeing in the teeth.
But then, Airbus is fairly busy trying to cover up decades of bribery this week, so they may have a bit of a full plate at the moment.

My money's on China.
 
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LAXintl
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Re: Bombardier exploring sale of aircraft programs

Mon Oct 16, 2017 12:21 am

Nothing different that stories back during spring they were trying to sell to the Chinese, after Airbus previously had passed on them.

Comac in talks to acquire Bombardier aviation business stake
viewtopic.php?t=1363517

=
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LockheedBBD
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Re: Bombardier exploring sale of aircraft programs

Mon Oct 16, 2017 12:28 am

LAXintl wrote:
Nothing different that stories back during spring they were trying to sell to the Chinese, after Airbus previously had passed on them.

Comac in talks to acquire Bombardier aviation business stake
viewtopic.php?t=1363517

=


I suppose it's nothing new. All this talk but no action by Bombardier is getting a bit old.
 
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william
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Re: Bombardier exploring sale of aircraft programs

Mon Oct 16, 2017 12:36 am

Don’t overlook Boeing as a suitor. Imagine the Boeing sales team pushing the CS.
 
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TheFlyingDisk
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Re: Bombardier exploring sale of aircraft programs

Mon Oct 16, 2017 12:37 am

What if Boeing were to get in the act in order to gain a foothold in the RJ market? Would that be feasible?
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2175301
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Re: Bombardier exploring sale of aircraft programs

Mon Oct 16, 2017 12:58 am

I would not rule out Viking... They may actually have a better chance than any Chinese company.

I doubt that either Airbus or Boeing are that interested.

Have a great day,
 
downdata
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Re: Bombardier exploring sale of aircraft programs

Mon Oct 16, 2017 1:03 am

LockheedBBD wrote:
LAXintl wrote:
Nothing different that stories back during spring they were trying to sell to the Chinese, after Airbus previously had passed on them.

Comac in talks to acquire Bombardier aviation business stake
viewtopic.php?t=1363517

=


I suppose it's nothing new. All this talk but no action by Bombardier is getting a bit old.


What is new is the circumstances which BBD is in. Im sure the price expectation at BBD just dropped by a bit due to the latest events.

Airbus could take the Q400 and shut it down when the current order book runs its course, effectively giving them a monopoly in that space.
 
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Re: Bombardier exploring sale of aircraft programs

Mon Oct 16, 2017 1:21 am

2175301 wrote:
I would not rule out Viking...


Viking is too small. I don't see any chance of them buying anything.

As others have said, the Q400 is not going to find any buyers. Now if the C-Series subsidiary were to be put on the market, I am sure there will be lots of interest. But there's little chance of either BBD or the Canadian Government putting it up for sale.
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bigjku
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Re: Bombardier exploring sale of aircraft programs

Mon Oct 16, 2017 1:25 am

IMHO this is a reflection of the fact that BBD is going to run out of cash again in the next 24 months trying to get the C-Series up and running.

The problem for the C-Series with both Boeing and Airbus if they bought would be you need to stretch it and then build it at a high rate to keep it price competitive. But neither wants to run two lines of sub 200 seat airliners I don’t think.
 
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Re: Bombardier exploring sale of aircraft programs

Mon Oct 16, 2017 1:26 am

william wrote:
Don’t overlook Boeing as a suitor. Imagine the Boeing sales team pushing the CS.


you mean Quebec gov't let Bombardier be sold to the company that's trying to destroy it and put thousands of workers in Quebec on the street?
 
beeweel15
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Re: Bombardier exploring sale of aircraft programs

Mon Oct 16, 2017 2:16 am

The one thing that upsets me is the fact that Airbus and Boeing especially gets government funds which mainly go to military projects of which many get transferred over to the civilian side. Both A&B have given discounts , big ones , for airlines to purchase their aircraft.
 
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Aesma
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Re: Bombardier exploring sale of aircraft programs

Mon Oct 16, 2017 2:21 am

Airbus doesn't seem that interested in ATR, refusing to invest in larger models for example, so there is no chance in hell they would buy the Q400. CRJ is old tech so no chance there either.
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beeweel15
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Re: Bombardier exploring sale of aircraft programs

Mon Oct 16, 2017 2:28 am

The one thing that upsets me is the fact that Airbus and Boeing especially gets government funds which mainly go to military projects of which many get transferred over to the civilian side. Both A&B have given discounts , big ones , for airlines to purchase their aircraft. I think the move is to eliminate competition.
 
CX747
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Re: Bombardier exploring sale of aircraft programs

Mon Oct 16, 2017 2:49 am

IF Boeing was a suitor, I would assume the CSeries would be cancelled, the Q400 might live on and a whole workforce could be turned on to more profit driven work like a 797 program.
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Re: Bombardier exploring sale of aircraft programs

Mon Oct 16, 2017 3:42 am

CX747 wrote:
IF Boeing was a suitor, I would assume the CSeries would be cancelled, the Q400 might live on and a whole workforce could be turned on to more profit driven work like a 797 program.

My take on the article is that the CSeries is not up for grabs. If anything, I think they're looking to sell other assets in order to continue fighting the fight with the CSeries. They clearly see the CSeries as their "bet the company" aircraft. The article specifically mentions the Q400 and CRJ as being considered. I wonder if they would consider divesting themselves of any of the business aircraft programs. Those could be more lucrative, I would think.

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Re: Bombardier exploring sale of aircraft programs

Mon Oct 16, 2017 3:49 am

Textron
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Re: Bombardier exploring sale of aircraft programs

Mon Oct 16, 2017 4:00 am

william wrote:
Don’t overlook Boeing as a suitor. Imagine the Boeing sales team pushing the CS.


Nah you’re dreaming in technicolor... BBD will go down with the ship when it comes to the CSeries. If they do sell anything it’ll be the CRJ or Q series possibly but that’s a big if at this point. I wouldn’t even rule them out selling a corporate jet line.
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mercure1
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Re: Bombardier exploring sale of aircraft programs

Mon Oct 16, 2017 4:00 am

Bizjet division might have some value to someone.
I think the legacy commercial business is largely on life support with a trickle of orders, while C-series surely is bleeding cash heavily for the company.
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BoeingVista
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Re: Bombardier exploring sale of aircraft programs

Mon Oct 16, 2017 4:28 am

CFM565A1 wrote:
william wrote:
Don’t overlook Boeing as a suitor. Imagine the Boeing sales team pushing the CS.


Nah you’re dreaming in technicolor... BBD will go down with the ship when it comes to the CSeries. If they do sell anything it’ll be the CRJ or Q series possibly but that’s a big if at this point. I wouldn’t even rule them out selling a corporate jet line.


Bombardier discussed a sale of CSeries to Airbus before so I dont see why it would be ruled out now.

1000% if Boeing bought CSeries the trade dispute would suddenly disappear.

CSeries makes a lot of sense for Airbus, kill A319, develop CS500 and target rewinged A322 firmly in the NMA space.
BV
 
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Re: Bombardier exploring sale of aircraft programs

Mon Oct 16, 2017 4:58 am

BoeingVista wrote:
CFM565A1 wrote:
william wrote:
Don’t overlook Boeing as a suitor. Imagine the Boeing sales team pushing the CS.


Nah you’re dreaming in technicolor... BBD will go down with the ship when it comes to the CSeries. If they do sell anything it’ll be the CRJ or Q series possibly but that’s a big if at this point. I wouldn’t even rule them out selling a corporate jet line.


Bombardier discussed a sale of CSeries to Airbus before so I dont see why it would be ruled out now.

1000% if Boeing bought CSeries the trade dispute would suddenly disappear.

CSeries makes a lot of sense for Airbus, kill A319, develop CS500 and target rewinged A322 firmly in the NMA space.


When you learn about Quebec pride/stubbornness/politics then you’ll understand why they won’t let Boeing anywhere near it. I would bet money that Boeing will never get a sniff at the CSeries designs. Airbus might be a candidate again though, who knows?

I’ll stick with this being nothing but fantasy until I see some actual signs of life with this topic.
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Re: Bombardier exploring sale of aircraft programs

Mon Oct 16, 2017 8:36 am

CFM565A1 wrote:
When you learn about Quebec pride/stubbornness/politics then you’ll understand why they won’t let Boeing anywhere near it. I would bet money that Boeing will never get a sniff at the CSeries designs. Airbus might be a candidate again though, who knows?


Are they as stubborn as the Italians who let AZ get bankrupt instead of accepting the plans and full ownership of EY?

Would the Quebec government let Bombardie get into liquidation / insolvency before accepting a foreign owner? Perhaps even one from a non-french speaking country?
 
uta999
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Re: Bombardier exploring sale of aircraft programs

Mon Oct 16, 2017 8:43 am

It won't happen, but wouldn't it be great if the UK Government were to buy it, and get back into building aircraft here in the UK again.
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hz747300
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Re: Bombardier exploring sale of aircraft programs

Mon Oct 16, 2017 9:01 am

I would think the Chinese, if permitted by the Canadian government, would bid. Instant credibility in Western Markets for "Chinese' aircraft.
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Jomar777
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Re: Bombardier exploring sale of aircraft programs

Mon Oct 16, 2017 9:06 am

uta999 wrote:
It won't happen, but wouldn't it be great if the UK Government were to buy it, and get back into building aircraft here in the UK again.


I would not want to get political here but think you got a great point. But I would only see this happening if/when Brexit is effected. Before, there would be so many EU Redtape that it would be hard.

This is also the reason why ATR would not consider, IMHO, buying the Q400 series. They could revitalise the project or, at least, use the installations and resources for an additional capacity and development. But, with Embraer out of the turboprop for quite a while now, they would be virtually the only one in this market and I am unsure this would be allowed (I think it should).

Both Q400 and CRJ could (a big could...) suit Embraer but I bet they are also out of any running in purchasing Canadian Aviation. They would certainly also give a good look on the Bizjet program.

Airbus will not take it unless if they cut a very low price since they are basically the only suitable suitor.

Boeing, even if they wanted to consider, it would be beyond belief that an approval from the Canadian Government would come given that they have, literally, hit the nail in the coffin of the C-Series Project unless BBD get orders from elsewhere in the world (I wonder if we could see any in Dubai...).

BBD left all their other programs to rot investing heavily on the C-Series and this was a gamble that did not pay off. They have so far not managed to win the challenge against their competitors and virtually killed all other projects this were, mainly the Q400, very profitable and crucial to keep the company going.
 
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Re: Bombardier exploring sale of aircraft programs

Mon Oct 16, 2017 9:11 am

To me Boeing's aggressive mood towards Bombardier signalled from the beginning they don't fight against Canada itself but against somebody bigger possibly taking over the CSeries. Like their next competitor. The only serious bidder must be China. However all the ongoing subsidies fight might just have forced Bombardier to go on sale and so the chinese might finally get their grips on the well done CSeries without big investment and risk sooner than later.
Wouldn't it be better for Boeing to have kept quiet? Canada won't do big harm to Boeing but China might if it owns the CSeries.
 
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Re: Bombardier exploring sale of aircraft programs

Mon Oct 16, 2017 9:33 am

bigjku wrote:
IMHO this is a reflection of the fact that BBD is going to run out of cash again in the next 24 months trying to get the C-Series up and running.

The problem for the C-Series with both Boeing and Airbus if they bought would be you need to stretch it and then build it at a high rate to keep it price competitive. But neither wants to run two lines of sub 200 seat airliners I don’t think.


I could see Airbus killing the 319 and run CS100/300/500 and focus on 320/321 and have a decent range there. You could probably get more value out of selling a CS500 over a 319 anyway.

Not putting all that much thought into it, it does seem like Airbus would be a perfect fit to take over BBD. ATR could start to move into the jet space with the CRJs and, as mentioned, let the Q400 live out its days and own the large turboprop market.
 
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Faro
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Re: Bombardier exploring sale of aircraft programs

Mon Oct 16, 2017 9:41 am

It would be a very interesting exercise in enterprise valuation: how do you account in dollar terms for the commercial/political risk deriving from the possibility of imposition of substantial US import duties on a durable basis? That is practically impossible.

IMHO any sale would have to await the US International Trade Commission's ruling on the US Commerce Department's 220% duties imposed last month...


Faro
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thumper76
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Re: Bombardier exploring sale of aircraft programs

Mon Oct 16, 2017 11:20 am

Just curious.
What kind of effects would this article about bombardier looking to possibly sell assets, have on the US ITC or WTO,s final decision? Could someone be trying to influence the outcome?
 
KICT
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Re: Bombardier exploring sale of aircraft programs

Mon Oct 16, 2017 11:44 am

Bombardier is a cluster of a company, I know this first hand.

I reckon it is worth more in parts than as a whole. The C-Series should be sold to either Airbus or Boeing (this is the only thing that will save the program). The CRJ line, now merely lipstick on a 1970s era pig, needs to be put to pasture, as the industry growth is making the airplane irrelevant and there are basically no large outstanding orders. As for the Q, it's a dead airplane, no one is ordering it (put a fork in the Dash 8 already). The Global 7 is a joke of a program and will likely never make a profit for them (sell it to Textron, they'll be able to turn it around). I know this first hand, the engineering teams know they are basically employees of the Canadian gov't on a jobs program.

Everyone in Wichita will end up finding new jobs. Especially if Textron is a major player picking from the carcass.

By the way, I love how Bombardier markets the Q as having an "unmatched passenger experience". True, considering it's the only airliner flying around without a lav.
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Noshow
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Re: Bombardier exploring sale of aircraft programs

Mon Oct 16, 2017 11:53 am

Airbus und Boeing don't need the CSeries. They have their own established families. It must be somebody else.
 
Olddog
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Re: Bombardier exploring sale of aircraft programs

Mon Oct 16, 2017 12:01 pm

Airbus can't be that interested due to the corruption probe and Brexit. Buying BBD would mean having to take care of the 4000 workers in NI, and why add problems?
When UK was in it wanted a lot of opt-outs, now it is out it wants opt-ins
 
bunumuring
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Re: Bombardier exploring sale of aircraft programs

Mon Oct 16, 2017 12:26 pm

Hey guys,
Yes I agree that China would seem to be the most likely buyer of Bombardier whole or parts...
I think that with Airbus' successful move to assemble in Mobile it too may look closely at the CSeries again as a differentiator between it and Boeing. I can imagine the 'package deals' on offer for CSeries + A32Xneos + 'your choice of widebody' = killer deals!
I really can't see Boeing buying Bombardier ... they have 'been there, done that' before!
What about India? Could the Q400 and/or CSeries possibly find new assembly points in India? I doubt that the CRJ family would be attractive to India but I can see the other two as being suitable for all manner of civil and military use in the sub-continent.
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YIMBY
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Re: Bombardier exploring sale of aircraft programs

Mon Oct 16, 2017 12:37 pm

bigjku wrote:
IMHO this is a reflection of the fact that BBD is going to run out of cash again in the next 24 months trying to get the C-Series up and running.

The problem for the C-Series with both Boeing and Airbus if they bought would be you need to stretch it and then build it at a high rate to keep it price competitive. But neither wants to run two lines of sub 200 seat airliners I don’t think.


As both run about three lines for over 200 seat airliners, having two lines for single-aisle airliners would not sound funny.

Both Airbus and Boeing could focus their existing lines to larger capacities and ranges and let CSeries to compete for smaller planes.

But as said, that is unlikely to happen, for political and other reasons, and I second those betting Chinese, despite politics (though the most likely results is that it goes on like before, with some disguised government help as usual in the industry). Embraer also has political barriers and Lockheed is unlikely to return to civilian markets, even though is it one of the few with sufficient resources.
 
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Re: Bombardier exploring sale of aircraft programs

Mon Oct 16, 2017 12:40 pm

The intellectual property of a recently certified type design like the CSeries is probably more valuable to China than the actual physical assets. Buying the program would get COMAC the knowledge needed to be able to get their airplanes certified by the FAA and EASA in my opinion. THe C919 depends on western suppliers to not only design and build the subsystems, but also do the certification work. This is something historically done in house by manufacturers like Bombardier, Boeing, etc.
 
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Re: Bombardier exploring sale of aircraft programs

Mon Oct 16, 2017 1:02 pm

CFM565A1 wrote:
william wrote:
Don’t overlook Boeing as a suitor. Imagine the Boeing sales team pushing the CS.


Nah you’re dreaming in technicolor... BBD will go down with the ship when it comes to the CSeries. If they do sell anything it’ll be the CRJ or Q series possibly but that’s a big if at this point. I wouldn’t even rule them out selling a corporate jet line.


mercure1 wrote:
Bizjet division might have some value to someone.
I think the legacy commercial business is largely on life support with a trickle of orders, while C-series surely is bleeding cash heavily for the company.


I was thinking the same thing about the Bizjet division in terms of what BBD could sell.

Then BBD could focus solely on airliners...but what is odd is that Bombardier with all of their biz jet expertise, to my knowledge, have not offered a CSeries biz jet. They're probably leaving at least a couple dozen CSeries orders on the table without such a "CS1/3 BJ" that comes in just under a BBJ/A319CJ.

It's also odd how so many people think the Q400 is dead (probably since the ATR is still outselling it 2-1), yet that's the only airliner BBD's been able to sell in recent times. The Q400 just received its largest ever order at the end of September and has had its best sales year in a long time.
 
ExMilitaryEng
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Re: Bombardier exploring sale of aircraft programs

Mon Oct 16, 2017 2:07 pm

Dominion301 wrote:
...but what is odd is that Bombardier with all of their biz jet expertise, to my knowledge, have not offered a CSeries biz jet. They're probably leaving at least a couple dozen CSeries orders on the table without such a "CS1/3 BJ" that comes in just under a BBJ/A319CJ.


We might learn very soon that there are two CS300s (almost completed?) that are slated for a "BJ" interior. No additional fuel tanks were fitted. Buyer name not disclosed. I'm actually surprised that such a BJ application occurred so early in the program. The buyer must have paid big $.

Dominion301 wrote:
It's also odd how so many people think the Q400 is dead (probably since the ATR is still outselling it 2-1), yet that's the only airliner BBD's been able to sell in recent times. The Q400 just received its largest ever order at the end of September and has had its best sales year in a long time.


Agreed.

The new "extended interior" / increased gross weight version, that can seat up to 90 passengers, is giving a new life to the program.

I suspect that the CASM of a 90 seater Q400 is probably very close to a similarly pitched ATR-72. (Anyone knows?). When we add the Q400's edge in speed, rate of climb and one engine out max altitude (that one is particularly useful for mountainous operations, like in northern India...), we can see its appeal for some costumers.
Last edited by ExMilitaryEng on Mon Oct 16, 2017 2:20 pm, edited 2 times in total.
 
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CFM565A1
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Re: Bombardier exploring sale of aircraft programs

Mon Oct 16, 2017 2:18 pm

CARST wrote:
CFM565A1 wrote:
When you learn about Quebec pride/stubbornness/politics then you’ll understand why they won’t let Boeing anywhere near it. I would bet money that Boeing will never get a sniff at the CSeries designs. Airbus might be a candidate again though, who knows?


Are they as stubborn as the Italians who let AZ get bankrupt instead of accepting the plans and full ownership of EY?

Would the Quebec government let Bombardie get into liquidation / insolvency before accepting a foreign owner? Perhaps even one from a non-french speaking country?


History shows they are.
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ikolkyo
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Re: Bombardier exploring sale of aircraft programs

Mon Oct 16, 2017 2:18 pm

I wonder if Vikings would be interested in the Q400.
 
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Re: Bombardier exploring sale of aircraft programs

Mon Oct 16, 2017 2:20 pm

golfradio wrote:
2175301 wrote:
I would not rule out Viking...


Viking is too small. I don't see any chance of them buying anything.

As others have said, the Q400 is not going to find any buyers. Now if the C-Series subsidiary were to be put on the market, I am sure there will be lots of interest. But there's little chance of either BBD or the Canadian Government putting it up for sale.


The opportunity is for a larger aerospace player to take over the assets, adding liquidity + sales teams + global support + integrated product lines... that would overcome the difficulties which BBD has had breaking into a market which is locked down by a few giant players (so, either AB, Boeing, or a player who is "new" but large enough to be credible... like Comac). Imagine what they could do with these great aircraft? This would add real value to the assets.

Viking, on the other hand, adds nothing . If anything, it's a step backwards. They will face all of the same difficulties, but without the benefit BBDs size, diverse product lines, or history in running and supporting the CRJ and Dash lines.
 
eugdjinn
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Re: Bombardier exploring sale of aircraft programs

Mon Oct 16, 2017 2:23 pm

I wouldn't go writing off the value of the CRJ programs yet. Keep in mind that the scope clauses aren't changing in the US, and that the bulk of the 50 seat fleets are hitting their 20 year design life in the next few years. Too, the bulk of the 700s will follow right behind them. AA has a scope that allows every 50 seater to be replaced by a 70 seat plane... which makes a sweet market with them for a revamped CRJ700 series. I'd be surprised if the lessons learned in the CSeries didn't let Bombardier return to its CRJ roots with a truly stunning new take on the 700/900 platform and give us a brand new 50/70/80 seat plane that would knock people's socks off, meet the weight limits, outperform her older sisters and be easier to turn, maintain and service.

The big flaw in the Q400 is that she's hangar queen. She's elegant, but she's a maintenance hog. If they do a new version that is more Sukhoi design bureau in philosophy and designed like the Q200 to be beat up day in and day out - they will have a winner. The Q400 is a delicate flower, a fast one, but too delicate. Turboprops need to be tough as nails, not touchy princesses. And frankly, any regional aircraft needs to be resilient, no nonsense, get the job done - always Hot Lips Houlihan and not Miss Piggy.

My quiet bet is that the moment the Canadians truly stand as one and say, "oh, well, o.k., we will not be buying any Boeing aircraft, at all, military, or other (737, 787, F18, etc and we won't be selling Potash for your farmers, or oil, or Salmon, or... without 300% markups... until this is resolved," it would end in fifteen minutes. Our farmers would stop it, if no one else did. But it would be fun to watch. And I would love watching them drag it out. Cancelling the contracts for Westjet and AirCanada planes alone would put a quick check on Boeing.
 
bigjku
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Re: Bombardier exploring sale of aircraft programs

Mon Oct 16, 2017 2:47 pm

YIMBY wrote:
bigjku wrote:
IMHO this is a reflection of the fact that BBD is going to run out of cash again in the next 24 months trying to get the C-Series up and running.

The problem for the C-Series with both Boeing and Airbus if they bought would be you need to stretch it and then build it at a high rate to keep it price competitive. But neither wants to run two lines of sub 200 seat airliners I don’t think.


As both run about three lines for over 200 seat airliners, having two lines for single-aisle airliners would not sound funny.

Both Airbus and Boeing could focus their existing lines to larger capacities and ranges and let CSeries to compete for smaller planes.

But as said, that is unlikely to happen, for political and other reasons, and I second those betting Chinese, despite politics (though the most likely results is that it goes on like before, with some disguised government help as usual in the industry). Embraer also has political barriers and Lockheed is unlikely to return to civilian markets, even though is it one of the few with sufficient resources.


I would not be so casual about the issues of splitting the narrowmarket into two for a big airframes. Airbus and Boeing derive a ton of pricing leverage from building very high rates of one design. To make the C-Series viable you need to get its production rate up to something approximating what the A320 and 737 are. To do that means stretching it and curtailing part of your A320 or 737 production to make room for it. That drives up your cost on those products which neither one wants to do.

Widebody aircraft are more specialized products that command higher price and margin. Narrowbodies are like pickup trucks. Volume and price are huge keys for them.

This has been the C-Series issue from day one. It simply has n chance to be price competitive at the projected build rate. It’s an almost unsolvable problem.
 
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aerolimani
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Re: Bombardier exploring sale of aircraft programs

Mon Oct 16, 2017 2:58 pm

KICT wrote:
Bombardier is a cluster of a company, I know this first hand.

I reckon it is worth more in parts than as a whole. The C-Series should be sold to either Airbus or Boeing (this is the only thing that will save the program). The CRJ line, now merely lipstick on a 1970s era pig, needs to be put to pasture, as the industry growth is making the airplane irrelevant and there are basically no large outstanding orders. As for the Q, it's a dead airplane, no one is ordering it (put a fork in the Dash 8 already). The Global 7 is a joke of a program and will likely never make a profit for them (sell it to Textron, they'll be able to turn it around). I know this first hand, the engineering teams know they are basically employees of the Canadian gov't on a jobs program.

Everyone in Wichita will end up finding new jobs. Especially if Textron is a major player picking from the carcass.

By the way, I love how Bombardier markets the Q as having an "unmatched passenger experience". True, considering it's the only airliner flying around without a lav.

Oh, come now. Express your opinion, by all means, but don't spread misinformation. Even at 90 seats, maximum capacity, there's still a lav.

It's the only turboprop flying 90 people around. You and I might not want to fly in that, but there are people who will be perfectly happy with their very cheap ticket. Without a doubt, the Q400 is struggling against the ATR, but it's not quite done yet. The program may be approaching its end, but there's still value there.

Image
Source: bombardier.com
 
leghorn
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Re: Bombardier exploring sale of aircraft programs

Mon Oct 16, 2017 3:13 pm

q400 just needs an extra row of seats fore and aft of the wings and a new engine.
Bombarider would have added the seats if someone was willing to order the plane.
There are turboprop engines in development which are nearly ready for market which would eliminate the fuel burn advantages of the ATR72.

They have been mentioned on many threads and not just by me.
 
thumper76
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Re: Bombardier exploring sale of aircraft programs

Mon Oct 16, 2017 3:21 pm

bigjku wrote:
YIMBY wrote:
bigjku wrote:
IMHO this is a reflection of the fact that BBD is going to run out of cash again in the next 24 months trying to get the C-Series up and running.

The problem for the C-Series with both Boeing and Airbus if they bought would be you need to stretch it and then build it at a high rate to keep it price competitive. But neither wants to run two lines of sub 200 seat airliners I don’t think.


As both run about three lines for over 200 seat airliners, having two lines for single-aisle airliners would not sound funny.

Both Airbus and Boeing could focus their existing lines to larger capacities and ranges and let CSeries to compete for smaller planes.

But as said, that is unlikely to happen, for political and other reasons, and I second those betting Chinese, despite politics (though the most likely results is that it goes on like before, with some disguised government help as usual in the industry). Embraer also has political barriers and Lockheed is unlikely to return to civilian markets, even though is it one of the few with sufficient resources.


I would not be so casual about the issues of splitting the narrowmarket into two for a big airframes. Airbus and Boeing derive a ton of pricing leverage from building very high rates of one design. To make the C-Series viable you need to get its production rate up to something approximating what the A320 and 737 are. To do that means stretching it and curtailing part of your A320 or 737 production to make room for it. That drives up your cost on those products which neither one wants to do.

Widebody aircraft are more specialized products that command higher price and margin. Narrowbodies are like pickup trucks. Volume and price are huge keys for them.

This has been the C-Series issue from day one. It simply has n chance to be price competitive at the projected build rate. It’s an almost unsolvable problem.

So basically put manufacturers should not care about what the airlines need? To think that the manufacturer knows better than the customer would seem quite odd. I would think airlines would have a far better idea of what they need. By undercutting the past cseries sales and making certain all airlines understand Boeing would do everything it could to make sure the cseries fails, they were effectively killing sales of the cseries. This lack of sales is now your reasoning behind the in effectiveness of the size to be profitable. Boeing started this influence against the cseries well before the Delta sale. When BBD was busy designing testing and building the cseries Boeing was busy looking at whether to build the same size, or continue on their current track. It is obvious what they decided. When they made the decision they already would have had the plan put in place to ensure the cseries flopped. This is big business, it would have been stupid for Boeing not to have done this. Question is do you think Boeing is stupid?
 
bigjku
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Re: Bombardier exploring sale of aircraft programs

Mon Oct 16, 2017 3:49 pm

thumper76 wrote:
bigjku wrote:
YIMBY wrote:

As both run about three lines for over 200 seat airliners, having two lines for single-aisle airliners would not sound funny.

Both Airbus and Boeing could focus their existing lines to larger capacities and ranges and let CSeries to compete for smaller planes.

But as said, that is unlikely to happen, for political and other reasons, and I second those betting Chinese, despite politics (though the most likely results is that it goes on like before, with some disguised government help as usual in the industry). Embraer also has political barriers and Lockheed is unlikely to return to civilian markets, even though is it one of the few with sufficient resources.


I would not be so casual about the issues of splitting the narrowmarket into two for a big airframes. Airbus and Boeing derive a ton of pricing leverage from building very high rates of one design. To make the C-Series viable you need to get its production rate up to something approximating what the A320 and 737 are. To do that means stretching it and curtailing part of your A320 or 737 production to make room for it. That drives up your cost on those products which neither one wants to do.

Widebody aircraft are more specialized products that command higher price and margin. Narrowbodies are like pickup trucks. Volume and price are huge keys for them.

This has been the C-Series issue from day one. It simply has n chance to be price competitive at the projected build rate. It’s an almost unsolvable problem.

So basically put manufacturers should not care about what the airlines need? To think that the manufacturer knows better than the customer would seem quite odd. I would think airlines would have a far better idea of what they need. By undercutting the past cseries sales and making certain all airlines understand Boeing would do everything it could to make sure the cseries fails, they were effectively killing sales of the cseries. This lack of sales is now your reasoning behind the in effectiveness of the size to be profitable. Boeing started this influence against the cseries well before the Delta sale. When BBD was busy designing testing and building the cseries Boeing was busy looking at whether to build the same size, or continue on their current track. It is obvious what they decided. When they made the decision they already would have had the plan put in place to ensure the cseries flopped. This is big business, it would have been stupid for Boeing not to have done this. Question is do you think Boeing is stupid?


I am not sure what point you are trying to make on this or any other thread frankly. To answer your “points.”

1. Yes manufacturers should care about what customers want but also what they are willing to pay for it. You only build it if you can deliver the product for less than price the consumer is willing to pay. This doesn’t just go for airplanes but anything one produces as many manufacturers have found out to their detriment at times. It doesn’t matter if I build a better computer or phone or tractor if it cost too much. It’s not as simple as saying airlines want the C-Series, what’s critical is what price they want it at and what price BBD can afford to sell it at while making a profit (for the moment they would settle for not hemmoraging cash).

2. It isn’t just Boeing under cutting their price. Airbus has done it too.

http://business.financialpost.com/trans ... ries-dream

https://www.forbes.com/sites/richardabo ... 36c6b13657

Airbus is described as a mortal enemy of the C-Series and us aggressively undercut it everywhere it can. What you need to understand is Airbus and Boeing do this because they can. What is happening to the C-Series is exactly what would have happened had either of them launched a new narrowbody product. Both looked at it on bigger production numbers and passed explicitly to avoid being in the position BBD is in.

This isn’t some nefarious plan by anyone. It’s a response that both Airbus and Boeing predicted had either one made the same move thus they didn’t do it.

3. It isn’t lack of sales that dooms the program, it’s lack of production volume. To get prices competitive they need to produce at greater volume. This necessitates more investment with cash they don’t have and a broader spectrum product which means more R&D again with cash they don’t have.

They lack sales because the price was to high prior to the bailouts. The lack of sales and cash to invest prevents them from scaling the line to reduce prices. It’s a viscious cycle that comes from two hints they screwed up from day one.

First they tried to sneak in the 300 as not a competitor to the A320 and 737 because they didn’t want to provoke a response. This didn’t work and the NEO and MAX took a ton of market share.

Second they didn’t have enough capital from the start to realistically plan for large enough production scale and to build the three variants they needed while establishing the infrastructure to truely compete with A and B for lower end narrowbody sales. This isn’t anyone’s fault but BBD.

4. The only stupid people here are the management team at BBD who got them into this mess. They are risking many thousands of jobs in profitable fields of regional jets, transportation and services on a poorly thought out and badly underresourced program. Most others saw this coming. Hell the article above from 2015 spelled it out clearly enough and he was critical of the program way before that as an insane idea.
 
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VirginFlyer
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Re: Bombardier exploring sale of aircraft programs

Mon Oct 16, 2017 3:59 pm

AA737-823 wrote:
I would hope that Airbus would maintain the C-series program, giving them something to offer below the A320 family.

william wrote:
Don’t overlook Boeing as a suitor. Imagine the Boeing sales team pushing the CS.

bigjku wrote:
The problem for the C-Series with both Boeing and Airbus if they bought would be you need to stretch it and then build it at a high rate to keep it price competitive. But neither wants to run two lines of sub 200 seat airliners I don’t think.

CX747 wrote:
IF Boeing was a suitor, I would assume the CSeries would be cancelled, the Q400 might live on and a whole workforce could be turned on to more profit driven work like a 797 program.

BoeingVista wrote:
Bombardier discussed a sale of CSeries to Airbus before so I dont see why it would be ruled out now.

1000% if Boeing bought CSeries the trade dispute would suddenly disappear.

CSeries makes a lot of sense for Airbus, kill A319, develop CS500 and target rewinged A322 firmly in the NMA space.

Noshow wrote:
Airbus und Boeing don't need the CSeries. They have their own established families. It must be somebody else.

Olddog wrote:
Airbus can't be that interested due to the corruption probe and Brexit. Buying BBD would mean having to take care of the 4000 workers in NI, and why add problems?

bunumuring wrote:
Hey guys,
Yes I agree that China would seem to be the most likely buyer of Bombardier whole or parts...
I think that with Airbus' successful move to assemble in Mobile it too may look closely at the CSeries again as a differentiator between it and Boeing. I can imagine the 'package deals' on offer for CSeries + A32Xneos + 'your choice of widebody' = killer deals!
I really can't see Boeing buying Bombardier ... they have 'been there, done that' before!
What about India? Could the Q400 and/or CSeries possibly find new assembly points in India? I doubt that the CRJ family would be attractive to India but I can see the other two as being suitable for all manner of civil and military use in the sub-continent.
Cheers
Bunumuring

YIMBY wrote:
Both Airbus and Boeing could focus their existing lines to larger capacities and ranges and let CSeries to compete for smaller planes.

But as said, that is unlikely to happen, for political and other reasons, and I second those betting Chinese, despite politics (though the most likely results is that it goes on like before, with some disguised government help as usual in the industry). Embraer also has political barriers and Lockheed is unlikely to return to civilian markets, even though is it one of the few with sufficient resources.

Newbiepilot wrote:
The intellectual property of a recently certified type design like the CSeries is probably more valuable to China than the actual physical assets. Buying the program would get COMAC the knowledge needed to be able to get their airplanes certified by the FAA and EASA in my opinion. THe C919 depends on western suppliers to not only design and build the subsystems, but also do the certification work. This is something historically done in house by manufacturers like Bombardier, Boeing, etc.

bbowma77 wrote:
Boeing, cancel the 737-7 Max and replace with C series, develop CS500 to replace Max -8-9, use the money saved to develop the MOM 797, Boeing 5 abreast 100-160 seats, 7 abreast 180-240 seats, 9 abreast 240-330 seats, 10 abreast 350-400 seats.


It is worth pointing out that the article quoted in the original post talks specifically about the sale of the Q400 or CRJ programmes, and not the C Series.

V/F
It is not for him to pride himself who loveth his own country, but rather for him who loveth the whole world. The earth is but one country, and mankind its citizens. —Bahá'u'lláh
 
bigjku
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Re: Bombardier exploring sale of aircraft programs

Mon Oct 16, 2017 4:00 pm

Agree they don’t want to sell C-Series. This is a cash grab to keep the lights on. Nothing more.
 
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aerolimani
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Re: Bombardier exploring sale of aircraft programs

Mon Oct 16, 2017 4:01 pm

Please, let's not turn this into another CSeries viability and DOC subsidy debate thread. We've already got two of those going.

U.S. Dept of Commerce backs Boeing in dispute with Bombardier: viewtopic.php?t=1374959
Delta: C-Series What's Next: viewtopic.php?t=1374845
 
raylee67
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Re: Bombardier exploring sale of aircraft programs

Mon Oct 16, 2017 4:05 pm

Boeing would regret pursuing BBD to the corner if it is sold to China and Canada permits the sale. While China is developing its aviation industry quickly, there are many areas it still lags behind. If Canada gets frustrated enough with US (not just because of Boeing vs BBD, but NAFTA negotiations, Paris climate deal, etc., too), it might just allow such sale to go thru.

Similar to the High Speed Rail industry, once China gets all those foreign advanced know-how, it will catch up in 5 years (just ask Kawasaki and Alstrom, etc.). Then God helps Boeing.
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