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mjoelnir
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Re: Airbus and Bombardier Announce CSeries Partnership

Tue Oct 24, 2017 12:10 pm

fsabo wrote:
Flyglobal wrote:
mjoelnir wrote:

I well understand that you have specialized laws in the USA, written to apply to foreign produced merchandise only, with specialized kangaroo courts to execute those laws. But I do not get, how you want to get past the point were an aircraft assembled in the USA, with 50 or more percent USA content, can be declared a foreign produced air frame. The moment it has to be accepted as an USA produced product, all laws regarding foreign produced merchandise should go out of the window.
Ownership of the factory where a frame is assembled should not matter. Airbus or CSALP will only import aircraft parts into the USA, with very expensive parts like engines and avionics produced in the USA, never seeing an international border. So we will see parts like fuselage parts and wings being imported, Do you expect the USA to say to hell with international agreements that aircraft parts move between countries without customs being applied?


If I were Airbus I would have the strategic goal that the C Series built in US has a higher local US Content then the Boeing 787.
Anyone in the know, how much American the 787 is compared to the C-Series?

Flyglobal


I doubt the percentage of US content and percentage of assembly in the US will have any effect. The only thing that matters is the potential response to what is essentially protectionism.

Fran


The local content is exactly the point. Of course if the USA is prepared to ignore international agreements and their own laws to squash competition, that is another case. But, the fuselage parts are from China, the wings from the UK and other parts from Canada. So the USA would start trade wars with Canada, the UK and China, to protect Boeing from competition?
 
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northstardc4m
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Re: Airbus and Bombardier Announce CSeries Partnership

Tue Oct 24, 2017 12:13 pm

fsabo wrote:
Flyglobal wrote:
mjoelnir wrote:

I well understand that you have specialized laws in the USA, written to apply to foreign produced merchandise only, with specialized kangaroo courts to execute those laws. But I do not get, how you want to get past the point were an aircraft assembled in the USA, with 50 or more percent USA content, can be declared a foreign produced air frame. The moment it has to be accepted as an USA produced product, all laws regarding foreign produced merchandise should go out of the window.
Ownership of the factory where a frame is assembled should not matter. Airbus or CSALP will only import aircraft parts into the USA, with very expensive parts like engines and avionics produced in the USA, never seeing an international border. So we will see parts like fuselage parts and wings being imported, Do you expect the USA to say to hell with international agreements that aircraft parts move between countries without customs being applied?


If I were Airbus I would have the strategic goal that the C Series built in US has a higher local US Content then the Boeing 787.
Anyone in the know, how much American the 787 is compared to the C-Series?

Flyglobal


I doubt the percentage of US content and percentage of assembly in the US will have any effect. The only thing that matters is the potential response to what is essentially protectionism.

Fran


In the political arena the fact that they are putting jobs in a state like Alabama is a major advantage for Airbus. Trump has been talking American jobs for Americans, he can't very well support measures to keep thousands of Aerospace jobs out of a very fiesty southern republican-red state in favor of a Company that has outsourced so much work overseas.
Those who would give up Essential Liberty to purchase a little Temporary Safety, deserve neither Liberty nor Safety.
 
PPVRA
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Re: Airbus and Bombardier Announce CSeries Partnership

Tue Oct 24, 2017 12:34 pm

The 737-300/400/500 sold 2000 units in the 100-150 space. If you discount the 400, that's still 1500 units.

And those were the old days.
"If goods do not cross borders, soldiers will" - Frederic Bastiat
 
CFRPwingALbody
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Re: Airbus and Bombardier Announce CSeries Partnership

Tue Oct 24, 2017 2:41 pm

AFAIK there is production capacity for rate 4 at Mobile FAL.
What is the easiest way to add a image to a post? an Image tels more than 1000 words.

The A320 FAL consists of:
- one assembly building (large one) the FAL
- two painting halls (one building)
- A engine test shed.
- One hangar where two A320's can be completed simultaneously (engine installation, system test & cabin outfitting)

For rate 8 or more, one more Painting hall (two plains) and a additional completion hall is needed.
Airbus has/had plans for a A330 conversion/completion hangar.
I think this facility that still has to be build will house the CSeries FAL with two completion stations.
CSeries FAL can also produce at rate 8, but requires use of the A320 completion halls for this rate.

One thing could also be behind the Airbus CSeries take over.
In 2014 A320 production was at rate 42/month. From Q1 this year it's at rate 50. And rate 60 is planned for 2019.
Two additional FAL's have come online (Mobile and Hamburg FAL4), they still have to ramp up.
AFAIK, Tianjin is at rate 4, Mobile at rate 3 goes to 4. But they could go to rate 8 (with additional facilities).
The FAL's are only the last part of the production story, also segment production has to increase for the higher rate.
I expect that new factories are needed to increase the rate from 50 to 60 (42 => 50 = 1.19x | 50 => 60 = 1.2x).
Production also increases because demand moves to the larger variant. (A321 41% deliveries => 65% net. orders)

At production start at Tianjin and Mobile FAL, all modules were shipped from Hamburg to those FAL's. The Beluga fleet fly 8 hours per A32x to fly all modules from the different production sites to Hamburg.
A less known fact, is that Airbus tries to eliminate the shipment of segments from Hamburg to the over seas FALs, so these plain sets can be assembled at Hamburg. At least at China they are trying to produce wings locally.
BBD's China facility could be used to produce the fuselage segments of the A320's for Tianjin FAL.
Airbus could invest in production facilities in Canada for CSeries fuselage and A320 fuselage production. Or even also wing's enz. This way Airbus exploits free trade arranged by CETA.

Maybe this explains also why Airbus tries to lower the RLI payments for A320, the A320's assembled at Tianjin and Mobile shouldn't apply to RLI if most of their content is manufactured abroad.
I can see a scenario where EU production and FAL sites produce 42-50 A32x's. And Tianjin and Mobile produce both at rate 4-8, with (some) local production. Total rate goes to 60/month. (for 11,5 months /year = 690)

CSeries Canada FAL will go to produce 120-150 plains per year. If there is US demand, and the import tariff is implemented the Mobile CSeries FAL will be build. Boosting annual production to 180-225.
If demand is even higher a additional FAL inside Canada will be build, or possibly Europe, China or India.
(50% of 6000) 3000x 100-150 pax plains in 20 years (2017-2036) requires a production rate of 150 planes annually.
With the CS500 the single-aisle market of 24807 (Airbus market forecast 2017-2036) could be taped. (1240,35/year)
(60% of 1240,35 = 744,2/year) (5% of 1240.35 = 62/year)
 
ytz
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Re: Airbus and Bombardier Announce CSeries Partnership

Tue Oct 24, 2017 3:11 pm

mjoelnir wrote:
washingtonflyer wrote:
So, I was shooting the breeze with a couple of colleagues over the weekend. This "deal" may not be the saving grace that Airbus or Bombardier wants. The dilemma that we see in this deal is that Airbus is now going to be "affiliated" with Bombardier/CSALP through an ownership stake in the C-Series program. Under US law, where you have affiliates doing further processing of merchandise that is subject to a tariff, the investigating agency (Commerce) has the authority to view the semifinished product as being subject to an AD/CVD order if an affiliate is completing assembly in the USA. Commerce has a special questionnaire - the Section "E" questionnaire that I mentioned in the other thread.

What this will hinge on is how far assembled the aircraft is.

Either way, here it appears that Delta is no longer on the hook for the duties. As the importer of record (this is an assumption) Airbus may now be on the hook for the 300% duties.

This is going to get fun...


I well understand that you have specialized laws in the USA, written to apply to foreign produced merchandise only, with specialized kangaroo courts to execute those laws. But I do not get, how you want to get past the point were an aircraft assembled in the USA, with 50 or more percent USA content, can be declared a foreign produced air frame. The moment it has to be accepted as an USA produced product, all laws regarding foreign produced merchandise should go out of the window.
Ownership of the factory where a frame is assembled should not matter. Airbus or CSALP will only import aircraft parts into the USA, with very expensive parts like engines and avionics produced in the USA, never seeing an international border. So we will see parts like fuselage parts and wings being imported, Do you expect the USA to say to hell with international agreements that aircraft parts move between countries without customs being applied?


I am not worried. Airbus will figure out how much local assembly they need and meet that threshold. Maybe wings and fuse shipping from abroad will be less "finished" than when bound for Canada.

The interesting thing here is that Boeing has opened the Pandora's box. Nothing stopping similar complaints against them elsewhere. You can bet that Airbus lawyers are gaming out similar traps in Europe. Especially after Boeing got lucky on appeal at the WTO.
 
ytz
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Re: Airbus and Bombardier Announce CSeries Partnership

Tue Oct 24, 2017 4:40 pm

So. The multi-billion dollar question, why did Boeing abruptly break off talks?

http://www.fliegerfaust.com/boeing-aban ... 27263.html

And the tariffs came only after talks broke off.
 
CFRPwingALbody
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Re: Airbus and Bombardier Announce CSeries Partnership

Tue Oct 24, 2017 6:44 pm

That could have been a nice Boeing-Bomberdier (BoeBBD ;p ) line up:
CS100, CS300, 737 MAX8, 737 MAX10, 797?/767MAX, 787, 777.
Most likely Boeing didn't want to garantee jobs. Really funny if this is true.
Lucky for Airbus this didn't happen.
 
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aerolimani
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Re: Airbus and Bombardier Announce CSeries Partnership

Tue Oct 24, 2017 7:00 pm

CFRPwingALbody wrote:
That could have been a nice Boeing-Bomberdier (BoeBBD ;p ) line up:
CS100, CS300, 737 MAX8, 737 MAX10, 797?/767MAX, 787, 777.
Most likely Boeing didn't want to garantee jobs. Really funny if this is true.
Lucky for Airbus this didn't happen.

I think the CSeries is a better fit with Airbus anyhow. The A320 series can be scaled up, adding an A322, so that the A321 size becomes the centre of family. The 737 is already well and truly stretched to its limit. The 10MAX requires complicated levered landing gear to prevent tailstrikes. I don't see an A322 having such issues. So, there's more potential room to slot the CSeries underneath the A320 family, and even add a CS500. Thus, they can truly exploit the potential in the CSeries project. While seat count overlap is not a huge problem, IMO, it's still better to have less.
 
CFRPwingALbody
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Re: Airbus and Bombardier Announce CSeries Partnership

Tue Oct 24, 2017 7:15 pm

CFRPwingALbody wrote:
AFAIK there is production capacity for rate 4 at Mobile FAL.
The A320 FAL consists of:
- one assembly building (large one) the FAL
- two One painting halls (one building)
- A engine test shed.
- One hangar where two A320's can be completed simultaneously (engine installation, system test & cabin outfitting)

As can been seen on Terraserver.
And in the image added to the Fliegerfaust Transatlantic Alliance article
Last edited by CFRPwingALbody on Tue Oct 24, 2017 7:38 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
MSPNWA
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Re: Airbus and Bombardier Announce CSeries Partnership

Tue Oct 24, 2017 7:18 pm

mjoelnir wrote:
I well understand that you have specialized laws in the USA, written to apply to foreign produced merchandise only, with specialized kangaroo courts to execute those laws. But I do not get, how you want to get past the point were an aircraft assembled in the USA, with 50 or more percent USA content, can be declared a foreign produced air frame. The moment it has to be accepted as an USA produced product, all laws regarding foreign produced merchandise should go out of the window.
Ownership of the factory where a frame is assembled should not matter. Airbus or CSALP will only import aircraft parts into the USA, with very expensive parts like engines and avionics produced in the USA, never seeing an international border. So we will see parts like fuselage parts and wings being imported, Do you expect the USA to say to hell with international agreements that aircraft parts move between countries without customs being applied?


Let's think about it from another angle. Do you think that a sovereign nation such as the USA in the face of an obvious tariff evasion ploy will simply throw up its hands and say "you've got us" when it comes to accepting imported goods?
 
CFRPwingALbody
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Re: Airbus and Bombardier Announce CSeries Partnership

Tue Oct 24, 2017 7:25 pm

More likely it would have been like this.
CFRPwingALbody wrote:
That could have been a nice Boeing-Bomberdier (BoeBBD ;p ) line up:
CS100, CS300, CS500 737 MAX8, 737 MAX10, 797?, 767MAX, 787, 777.


I fear that a larger A32x family will become less attractieve because of higher operational cost.
Beter don't change a very well selling product (A320NEO & A321NEO, only improve it.
The ~3000NM range with it's weight make the A320NEO and A321NEO so good.
A larger wing to get up to 5000NM will distroy economics on short routs. Beter make a MoM sister family.
Repeat mode: a larger wing on a A320 fuselage wouldn't be a A320 anymore, but a A325.
 
CFRPwingALbody
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Re: Airbus and Bombardier Announce CSeries Partnership

Tue Oct 24, 2017 7:34 pm

MSPNWA wrote:
Let's think about it from another angle. Do you think that a sovereign nation such as the USA in the face of an obvious tariff evasion ploy will simply throw up its hands and say "you've got us" when it comes to accepting imported goods?


The problem is in defining the value of the imported airplane parts. Can you determine how much value a lose cockpit, a set of wings, a fuselage enz. has? And how much value is added when these parts are assembled together, fitter out with seats and engines and given a nice fresh coating layer.

The second thing is that the Mobile FAL is owned by a US daughter company that's part of Airbus group. This daughter company or Delta airlines will have to pay the bill. Most likely resulting in a loss making Mobile FAL, that could go bankrupt.
In the EU a loss making company doesn't pay profit taxes, it even get's discounts follow on years. But I don't know how this works in Mobile, Alabama, USA.
Last edited by CFRPwingALbody on Tue Oct 24, 2017 7:41 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
AirbusCanada
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Re: Airbus and Bombardier Announce CSeries Partnership

Tue Oct 24, 2017 7:41 pm

MSPNWA wrote:

Let's think about it from another angle. Do you think that a sovereign nation such as the USA in the face of an obvious tariff evasion ploy will simply throw up its hands and say "you've got us" when it comes to accepting imported goods?


Yes, offcouse because in order to impose import tariff, goods have to be imported first. You cannot go into randomly slap import tariff on domestically produced goods.
This is similar to Auto industry where the Japanese and German Manufactures built Factory inside NAFTA zone in order to reduce import tariff.
 
AirbusCanada
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Re: Airbus and Bombardier Announce CSeries Partnership

Tue Oct 24, 2017 7:42 pm

AirbusCanada wrote:
MSPNWA wrote:

Let's think about it from another angle. Do you think that a sovereign nation such as the USA in the face of an obvious tariff evasion ploy will simply throw up its hands and say "you've got us" when it comes to accepting imported goods?


Yes, offcouse because in order to impose import tariff, goods have to be imported first. You cannot go into randomly slap import tariff on domestically produced goods. Other than the Irish made wings, most of the CSeries hihg value sub assemblies (Engine, avionics) are made in USA.
This is similar to Auto industry where the Japanese and German Manufactures built Factory inside NAFTA zone in order to reduce import tariff.
 
AirbusCanada
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Re: Airbus and Bombardier Announce CSeries Partnership

Tue Oct 24, 2017 7:43 pm

MSPNWA wrote:

Let's think about it from another angle. Do you think that a sovereign nation such as the USA in the face of an obvious tariff evasion ploy will simply throw up its hands and say "you've got us" when it comes to accepting imported goods?


Yes, offcouse because in order to impose import tariff, goods have to be imported first. You cannot go into randomly slap import tariff on domestically produced goods. Other than the Irish made wings, most of the CSeries high value sub assemblies (Engine, avionics) are made in USA.
This is similar to Auto industry where the Japanese and German Manufactures built Factory inside NAFTA zone in order to reduce import tariff.
 
racercoup
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Re: Airbus and Bombardier Announce CSeries Partnership

Tue Oct 24, 2017 7:50 pm

AirbusCanada wrote:
AirbusCanada wrote:
MSPNWA wrote:

Let's think about it from another angle. Do you think that a sovereign nation such as the USA in the face of an obvious tariff evasion ploy will simply throw up its hands and say "you've got us" when it comes to accepting imported goods?


"then the moment the Alabama site starts operating, Boeing execs say it will be hit with a complaint alleging illegal circumvention of trade duties. The longstanding legal doctrine of circumvention prevents companies from moving final assembly sites across borders as a way of dodging tariffs."

https://www.forbes.com/sites/lorenthomp ... 4ce49a121c

Another viewpoint.
 
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Jayafe
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Re: Airbus and Bombardier Announce CSeries Partnership

Tue Oct 24, 2017 7:55 pm

That could be easily argued, in case the % of US parts is as high as commented, as the natural FAL location should be the US instead of the previous based in Canada. Not moving the factory to avoid taxes, but to save transport and exporting costs of the parts...
 
bigjku
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Re: Airbus and Bombardier Announce CSeries Partnership

Tue Oct 24, 2017 7:56 pm

ytz wrote:
So. The multi-billion dollar question, why did Boeing abruptly break off talks?

http://www.fliegerfaust.com/boeing-aban ... 27263.html

And the tariffs came only after talks broke off.


My guess is that the C-Series isn’t profitable on an ongoing basis without massive exapansion of the order book and large capital investment to generate significantly higher volume.

Again this is just a guess. We will see how and if Airbus moves forward on the whole thing.
 
racercoup
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Re: Airbus and Bombardier Announce CSeries Partnership

Tue Oct 24, 2017 8:20 pm

Jayafe wrote:
That could be easily argued, in case the % of US parts is as high as commented, as the natural FAL location should be the US instead of the previous based in Canada. Not moving the factory to avoid taxes, but to save transport and exporting costs of the parts...


Read the article - the more work you move to the US the more jobs Canada loses which is why the Canucks invested the money in the first place. Either way Boeing can tie this up in the courts for many years .My guess is Airbus wont be building any C Series for a while.

Another question - why didn't the Chinese jump at this opportunity?
 
tphuang
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Re: Airbus and Bombardier Announce CSeries Partnership

Tue Oct 24, 2017 8:27 pm

Loren Thompson is paid to spread Boeing talking points.

Since Canadian assembly line will still be producing for non us aircraft which is a huge market, the idea that this somehow costs Canadian jobs is ridiculous.

It's a pathetic attempt by Boeing after getting out maneuvered by airbus who got c series at very low cost.

It's total arrogance to say airbus won't build c series for a while when there are plenty of non us sales prospect and airbus actually will help selling the aircraft now.
 
multimark
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Re: Airbus and Bombardier Announce CSeries Partnership

Tue Oct 24, 2017 8:36 pm

racercoup wrote:
Jayafe wrote:
That could be easily argued, in case the % of US parts is as high as commented, as the natural FAL location should be the US instead of the previous based in Canada. Not moving the factory to avoid taxes, but to save transport and exporting costs of the parts...


Read the article - the more work you move to the US the more jobs Canada loses which is why the Canucks invested the money in the first place. Either way Boeing can tie this up in the courts for many years .My guess is Airbus wont be building any C Series for a while.

Another question - why didn't the Chinese jump at this opportunity?


Apparently Bombardier was told that a Chinese purchase would invoke much greater government scrutiny due to the technology involved.
 
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Polot
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Re: Airbus and Bombardier Announce CSeries Partnership

Tue Oct 24, 2017 8:47 pm

tphuang wrote:
Since Canadian assembly line will still be producing for non us aircraft which is a huge market, the idea that this somehow costs Canadian jobs is ridiculous.

Well it is likely costing future Canadian jobs. If the planes are not being assembled in Mobile that means they would have been assembled at Mirabel, and currently almost 1/3 of the C series backlog needs to be assembled in Mobile (although the chances of Republic's order being fulfilled is slim). There is also no guarantee (as far as I know, someone correct me if I am wrong) that the Mobile FAL has to exclusively build US bound C series. If Mobile production ends up being cheaper and it comes time to decide where to expand production...


That is likely why Airbus would agree to maintain any current staffing levels at YMX. YMX is currently staffed for a low(er) production rate. If the C series because popular and rates need to be increased Airbus has options. When (ok, technically if) Airbus gets full control of the C series Mobile FAL is also located at a facility completely controlled by Airbus versus having to share space/land with BBD at YMX, which further increases its attractiveness.

Make no mistake, BBD has basically sold away Canada's aerospace future to the Europeans. But it was sell out or face real risk of complete collapse.
 
WaywardMemphian
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Re: Airbus and Bombardier Announce CSeries Partnership

Tue Oct 24, 2017 9:00 pm

CFRPwingALbody wrote:
That could have been a nice Boeing-Bomberdier (BoeBBD ;p ) line up:
CS100, CS300, 737 MAX8, 737 MAX10, 797?/767MAX, 787, 777.
Most likely Boeing didn't want to garantee jobs. Really funny if this is true.
Lucky for Airbus this didn't happen.


Not only that, but if Bombardierr could miniturize the C Series tube into a lighter 86 seater with a smaller wing and so on to get under scope and replace the CRJs and do the same for a new engined Turbo Prop for up to 100 seaters, they would have been a supercenter for the aviation world. Nope, Airbus may reap that kind of line up now. I gotta think if the C-Series starts selling, it'll be the basis of a new CRJ sharing the cockpit and tube though shortened with lighter engines and smaller wings to combat the E jets from Embraer, all with Airbus get a piece of it because of their new found ownership of the IP.
 
tphuang
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Re: Airbus and Bombardier Announce CSeries Partnership

Tue Oct 24, 2017 9:14 pm

Polot wrote:
tphuang wrote:
Since Canadian assembly line will still be producing for non us aircraft which is a huge market, the idea that this somehow costs Canadian jobs is ridiculous.

Well it is likely costing future Canadian jobs. If the planes are not being assembled in Mobile that means they would have been assembled at Mirabel, and currently almost 1/3 of the C series backlog needs to be assembled in Mobile (although the chances of Republic's order being fulfilled is slim). There is also no guarantee (as far as I know, someone correct me if I am wrong) that the Mobile FAL has to exclusively build US bound C series. If Mobile production ends up being cheaper and it comes time to decide where to expand production...


That is likely why Airbus would agree to maintain any current staffing levels at YMX. YMX is currently staffed for a low(er) production rate. If the C series because popular and rates need to be increased Airbus has options. When (ok, technically if) Airbus gets full control of the C series Mobile FAL is also located at a facility completely controlled by Airbus versus having to share space/land with BBD at YMX, which further increases its attractiveness.

Make no mistake, BBD has basically sold away Canada's aerospace future to the Europeans. But it was sell out or face real risk of complete collapse.

That would only be the case if they were able to get those additional sales which they haven't shown the ability to. And their other option is complete collapse of bombardier aviation which would definitely means no more Quebec jobs.
 
ytz
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Re: Airbus and Bombardier Announce CSeries Partnership

Tue Oct 24, 2017 9:30 pm

It'll be interesting to see how this plays out with a Senate race at stake in Alabama.
 
racercoup
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Re: Airbus and Bombardier Announce CSeries Partnership

Tue Oct 24, 2017 9:38 pm

It's total arrogance to say airbus won't build c series for a while when there are plenty of non us sales prospect and airbus actually will help selling the aircraft now.[/quote]

Boeing's legal team will be fighting to apply the tariffs to any parts coming to the US for the C Series.The attempt to dodge tariffs by moving manufacture to Airbus in Alabama could actually end up affecting more than the Delta frames. For example any wings from Ireland would be subject to tariff.

I think Airbus jumped at this opportunity to take the stink off the corruption debacle, and didn't really think things through. They do love good PR. Don't forget, Airbus said no to a deal with Bombardier previously s well.

In the end Boeing does not need to win the case - it merely needs enough ammunition to keep things tied up in courts, there is plenty here to do just that. In the end - Airbus gains nothing and loses nothing, Quebec and Ottawa and Bombardier are stuck wit a non-performing asset and no jobs, Delta gets no planes for years, and Boeing has some enemies.

All in a day's work :)
 
PlanesNTrains
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Re: Airbus and Bombardier Announce CSeries Partnership

Tue Oct 24, 2017 9:46 pm

Polot wrote:
and currently almost 1/3 of the C series backlog needs to be assembled in Mobile (although the chances of Republic's order being fulfilled is slim). There is also no guarantee (as far as I know, someone correct me if I am wrong) that the Mobile FAL has to exclusively build US bound C series. If Mobile production ends up being cheaper and it comes time to decide where to expand production...


I think it was ytz that said that DL would exercise all options, order more, and basically tie up the output of the Mobile facility for years. That would mean that all other orders would need to be built in Canada, which bodes well for jobs there.

I wish the status of the Republic order was more clear. While it appears to be on the books still, are the terms really still very good at all?
-Dave


MAX’d out on MAX threads. If you are starting a thread, and it’s about the MAX - stop. There’s already a thread that covers it.
 
ytz
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Re: Airbus and Bombardier Announce CSeries Partnership

Tue Oct 24, 2017 9:55 pm

PlanesNTrains wrote:
Polot wrote:
and currently almost 1/3 of the C series backlog needs to be assembled in Mobile (although the chances of Republic's order being fulfilled is slim). There is also no guarantee (as far as I know, someone correct me if I am wrong) that the Mobile FAL has to exclusively build US bound C series. If Mobile production ends up being cheaper and it comes time to decide where to expand production...


I think it was ytz that said that DL would exercise all options, order more, and basically tie up the output of the Mobile facility for years. That would mean that all other orders would need to be built in Canada, which bodes well for jobs there.

I wish the status of the Republic order was more clear. While it appears to be on the books still, are the terms really still very good at all?


It's just rough math. If they exercise all options, that's 125. That right there is probably at least 2-2.5 years of production. I thought there wouldn't be a line up till 2020-2021. That would mean tieing up till 2022-2023. If they add more that would bring Mobile's FAL to a backlog on par with the A320.

But if Sylvain Faust is to be believed, they could have mobile up by the end of 2019. I am really skeptical on that. We'll see.

As to whether Mobile is restricted to the US market. If we are to go by the announcement itself, it sounds a lot like Mobile will be restricted to US bound production. But I doubt anybody here really knows more about the specifics.
 
tphuang
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Re: Airbus and Bombardier Announce CSeries Partnership

Tue Oct 24, 2017 10:50 pm

racercoup wrote:
it's total arrogance to say airbus won't build c series for a while when there are plenty of non us sales prospect and airbus actually will help selling the aircraft now.


Boeing's legal team will be fighting to apply the tariffs to any parts coming to the US for the C Series.The attempt to dodge tariffs by moving manufacture to Airbus in Alabama could actually end up affecting more than the Delta frames. For example any wings from Ireland would be subject to tariff.

I think Airbus jumped at this opportunity to take the stink off the corruption debacle, and didn't really think things through. They do love good PR. Don't forget, Airbus said no to a deal with Bombardier previously s well.

In the end Boeing does not need to win the case - it merely needs enough ammunition to keep things tied up in courts, there is plenty here to do just that. In the end - Airbus gains nothing and loses nothing, Quebec and Ottawa and Bombardier are stuck wit a non-performing asset and no jobs, Delta gets no planes for years, and Boeing has some enemies.

All in a day's work :)

Again none of this covers the number of sales they will get outside of us which has no tariff concerns and will get assembled in Quebec. You are too focused on America.
 
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aerolimani
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Re: Airbus and Bombardier Announce CSeries Partnership

Tue Oct 24, 2017 11:21 pm

MSPNWA wrote:
Let's think about it from another angle. Do you think that a sovereign nation such as the USA in the face of an obvious tariff evasion ploy will simply throw up its hands and say "you've got us" when it comes to accepting imported goods?

Isn't the point of the legislation to protect US jobs? The net result of a CSeries FAL in Mobile would mean an overall increase in jobs in the US. I'd like to think that the US gov't could see what's in the interest of its citizens versus the interests of one company.
 
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Re: Airbus and Bombardier Announce CSeries Partnership

Tue Oct 24, 2017 11:26 pm

aerolimani wrote:
MSPNWA wrote:
Let's think about it from another angle. Do you think that a sovereign nation such as the USA in the face of an obvious tariff evasion ploy will simply throw up its hands and say "you've got us" when it comes to accepting imported goods?

Isn't the point of the legislation to protect US jobs? The net result of a CSeries FAL in Mobile would mean an overall increase in jobs in the US. I'd like to think that the US gov't could see what's in the interest of its citizens versus the interests of one company.

The purpose of the legislation is to try to improve fairness, not shift jobs to the US.
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ytz
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Re: Airbus and Bombardier Announce CSeries Partnership

Tue Oct 24, 2017 11:29 pm

Revelation wrote:
aerolimani wrote:
MSPNWA wrote:
Let's think about it from another angle. Do you think that a sovereign nation such as the USA in the face of an obvious tariff evasion ploy will simply throw up its hands and say "you've got us" when it comes to accepting imported goods?

Isn't the point of the legislation to protect US jobs? The net result of a CSeries FAL in Mobile would mean an overall increase in jobs in the US. I'd like to think that the US gov't could see what's in the interest of its citizens versus the interests of one company.

The purpose of the legislation is to try to improve fairness, not shift jobs to the US.


That's sort of missing the forest for the trees.
 
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Jayafe
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Re: Airbus and Bombardier Announce CSeries Partnership

Tue Oct 24, 2017 11:54 pm

racercoup wrote:
Boeing's legal team will be fighting to apply the tariffs to any parts coming to the US for the C Series.


Yeah, why should B build planes instead of taking competitors to court?.

racercoup wrote:
I think Airbus jumped at this opportunity to take the stink off the corruption debacle, and didn't really think things through. They do love good PR. Don't forget, Airbus said no to a deal with Bombardier previously s well.


Yes, no deal, just PR. Actually Airbus did not take an advetageous position, but dug its own grave

racercoup wrote:
In the end Boeing does not need to win the case - it merely needs enough ammunition to keep things tied up in courts, there is plenty here to do just that. In the end
...
All in a day's work :)


Best definition of Boeing Corp lately.

Again, why to innovate or compete when you can just use your arrogance to smash compeitors even without a case? Such a self sufficiency. Sometime you read some stuff really hard to believe...
 
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Re: Airbus and Bombardier Announce CSeries Partnership

Tue Oct 24, 2017 11:57 pm

Seems we're (finally?) getting some insight into how Boeing sees all of this in https://www.forbes.com/sites/lorenthomp ... 69f6107121 from Loren Thompson, who tells us why he's qualified to tell us how unconcerned Boeing is about this deal:

However, many observers still don't grasp how unconcerned Boeing is about the pending partnership. Because Boeing is a longtime contributor to my think tank, I have been able to develop a fairly precise picture of how senior management views the proposed transaction. In brief, here's why Boeing isn't worried at all.

Nice that he gets that out of the way right up front, isn't it? :biggrin:

A lot of the arguments are the ones suggested here already, such as Trump will still support Boeing and airplanes produced at the Alabama FAL will still be subject to tariffs for years to come.

Some red meat quotes:

Even if the impending demise of the Airbus A380 superjumbo was not impairing its balance sheet, the European plane maker is facing heavy headwinds. The way Boeing execs see it, Airbus is buying itself further headaches by taking on the CSeries as part of its portfolio. Boeing and Airbus in the past have avoided offering planes with seating capacity barely above that of regional jets.

And:

The fact that Bombardier was willing to give away ownership of its premier product line underscores why Boeing wasn't interested in doing a deal when it kicked the tires at Bombardier two years ago. There just isn't much there worth having.

And the summation:

And that's before you get to all the political controversy that will surround Quebec seeing its billion-dollar stake in CSeries shrink from 49% ownership to 19%. No government would accept such a deal unless it had received assurances that local jobs will not go away. CSeries production will continue to occur mainly in Canada, and given all the subsidies, CSeries duties will remain in place in the U.S. -- by far the plane's most important market. So of course Boeing isn't worried about arch-rival Airbus tying itself to Bombardier. Quite the opposite: some Boeing executives are delighted, believing it has made yet another strategic misstep.

Not a convincing piece at all, IMHO.
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Jayafe
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Re: Airbus and Bombardier Announce CSeries Partnership

Wed Oct 25, 2017 12:01 am

More propaganda easy to swallow for B-boys, more trolling posts coming...
 
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Revelation
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Re: Airbus and Bombardier Announce CSeries Partnership

Wed Oct 25, 2017 12:12 am

Jayafe wrote:
More propaganda easy to swallow for B-boys, more trolling posts coming...

If that's the best they can come up with after all these days to think about it, they just aren't very good at their jobs.

For example,

There just isn't much there worth having.

... very well might be one of the great business misjudgements of our time when viewed in the context of how advanced the product is and what the deal that Airbus got is.

Then, if it's not worth having, why is Boeing telling us that they are going to continue to spend the big dollars on legal fees to pressure the Trump administration to prevent it from gaining a US market? If the jet barely bigger than a regional jet has no market, why spend so much money trying to kill it?

This statement, which basically is a Boeing press release, makes no sense at all.
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mjoelnir
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Re: Airbus and Bombardier Announce CSeries Partnership

Wed Oct 25, 2017 12:23 am

Revelation wrote:
aerolimani wrote:
MSPNWA wrote:
Let's think about it from another angle. Do you think that a sovereign nation such as the USA in the face of an obvious tariff evasion ploy will simply throw up its hands and say "you've got us" when it comes to accepting imported goods?

Isn't the point of the legislation to protect US jobs? The net result of a CSeries FAL in Mobile would mean an overall increase in jobs in the US. I'd like to think that the US gov't could see what's in the interest of its citizens versus the interests of one company.

The purpose of the legislation is to try to improve fairness, not shift jobs to the US.


The purpose of the legislation is to beat on foreign manufacturers, if it was about fairness, dumping would be banned for USA company also.
 
GalaxyFlyer
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Re: Airbus and Bombardier Announce CSeries Partnership

Wed Oct 25, 2017 12:29 am

WaywardMemphian wrote:
CFRPwingALbody wrote:
That could have been a nice Boeing-Bomberdier (BoeBBD ;p ) line up:
CS100, CS300, 737 MAX8, 737 MAX10, 797?/767MAX, 787, 777.
Most likely Boeing didn't want to garantee jobs. Really funny if this is true.
Lucky for Airbus this didn't happen.


Not only that, but if Bombardierr could miniturize the C Series tube into a lighter 86 seater with a smaller wing and so on to get under scope and replace the CRJs and do the same for a new engined Turbo Prop for up to 100 seaters, they would have been a supercenter for the aviation world. Nope, Airbus may reap that kind of line up now. I gotta think if the C-Series starts selling, it'll be the basis of a new CRJ sharing the cockpit and tube though shortened with lighter engines and smaller wings to combat the E jets from Embraer, all with Airbus get a piece of it because of their new found ownership of the IP.


That’s a whole ‘nother plane, not a modification.

GF
 
Flyglobal
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Re: Airbus and Bombardier Announce CSeries Partnership

Wed Oct 25, 2017 6:35 am

Ist good that Loren Thomson gives us all a good insight about Boeing Headquarter thinking.
This could come straight from the Boeing PR department but anyways they do not hide their funding which includes. Boeing's.


Flyglobal,
who enjoys that the spectacle continues
 
Olddog
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Re: Airbus and Bombardier Announce CSeries Partnership

Wed Oct 25, 2017 6:51 am

Well Loren Thompson was already a Boeing' PR mouthpiece for the tanker saga...
When UK was in it wanted a lot of opt-outs, now it is out it wants opt-ins
 
ThePointblank
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Re: Airbus and Bombardier Announce CSeries Partnership

Wed Oct 25, 2017 9:49 am

racercoup wrote:
AirbusCanada wrote:
AirbusCanada wrote:


"then the moment the Alabama site starts operating, Boeing execs say it will be hit with a complaint alleging illegal circumvention of trade duties. The longstanding legal doctrine of circumvention prevents companies from moving final assembly sites across borders as a way of dodging tariffs."

https://www.forbes.com/sites/lorenthomp ... 4ce49a121c

Another viewpoint.

The bulk of the C-Series, especially the high value components, are American-made. So, even if the US government manages to slap duties on the assemblies coming in from overseas, the value of those assemblies is far less than the value of the aircraft; it is no longer 300% duties on the entire aircraft, it's only 300% on the value of the assemblies coming in from overseas. This would be a drop in the bucket in the cost of the aircraft, unless the US government arbitrarily sets on the value of the assemblies at an extremely inflated price, which would be legally challenged.
 
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Re: Airbus and Bombardier Announce CSeries Partnership

Wed Oct 25, 2017 10:37 am

First we have to wait for the closing which may take the larger part of 2018.
Only then Airbus can actively market the C-Series.
For the assembly line there are two steps:
1) wait how much the real Tarif might turn out - I expect something less then 300%
2) I would also expect that Airbus and Bombardier (better the C-series Company) will be prepared for the expected Boeing continuation with legal disturbance - even to the almost 100% US made parts- at least larger then the 787. Finally they could build wings and fuselage parts in the US.

Flyglobal
 
RalXWB
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Re: Airbus and Bombardier Announce CSeries Partnership

Wed Oct 25, 2017 10:38 am

I find it amusing that many people are solely focusing on the US market. IMO Airbus had the worldwide market in mind when they entered into this brilliant agreement.
 
thumper76
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Re: Airbus and Bombardier Announce CSeries Partnership

Wed Oct 25, 2017 10:57 am

The whole reason why BBD had to sell 50.01% of the cseries was because BBD did not have the financial backing to push the aircraft into all important markets. The nearly 300% tariff was a move by Boeing ment to kill any chance of getting the US market. Airbus has the financial backing needed to get the US market by ensuring that it can get to the WTO. If the US does not listen to the WTO rulings then the cseries is the least of our worries.
 
mjoelnir
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Re: Airbus and Bombardier Announce CSeries Partnership

Wed Oct 25, 2017 11:09 am

Flyglobal wrote:
First we have to wait for the closing which may take the larger part of 2018.
Only then Airbus can actively market the C-Series.
For the assembly line there are two steps:
1) wait how much the real Tarif might turn out - I expect something less then 300%
2) I would also expect that Airbus and Bombardier (better the C-series Company) will be prepared for the expected Boeing continuation with legal disturbance - even to the almost 100% US made parts- at least larger then the 787. Finally they could build wings and fuselage parts in the US.

Flyglobal


For the assembly line it is one step, build it. With an USA content of more than 50%, assembled in the USA, the CS100 and CS300 will be defined as an USA manufactured aircraft. The USA can of course forget their own laws and international agreements to help Boeing, but I have yet to see the USA government provoking a trade war with the EU, China and Canada to do the bidding of Boeing and stop the build up of further aircraft manufacturing in Alabama.
With the protectionist touch of the current administration, it is good to move final assembly to the USA and that has also been a long term project at Airbus anyway.
 
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Re: Airbus and Bombardier Announce CSeries Partnership

Wed Oct 25, 2017 11:22 am

mjoelnir wrote:
With an USA content of more than 50%, assembled in the USA, the CS100 and CS300 will be defined as an USA manufactured aircraft.

As has been posted here before, US assembly becomes irrelevant if is is being used to circumvent the tariff, which this clearly is.
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bigjku
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Re: Airbus and Bombardier Announce CSeries Partnership

Wed Oct 25, 2017 11:34 am

thumper76 wrote:
The whole reason why BBD had to sell 50.01% of the cseries was because BBD did not have the financial backing to push the aircraft into all important markets. The nearly 300% tariff was a move by Boeing ment to kill any chance of getting the US market. Airbus has the financial backing needed to get the US market by ensuring that it can get to the WTO. If the US does not listen to the WTO rulings then the cseries is the least of our worries.


You do realize that at the WTO the C-Series is going to get clobbered by Brazil right? The only problem is that it will take a decade to get there.

It will be interesting to see if everyone still holds WTO rulings as manadate here in the next year or so.
 
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SomebodyInTLS
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Re: Airbus and Bombardier Announce CSeries Partnership

Wed Oct 25, 2017 11:46 am

Revelation wrote:
mjoelnir wrote:
With an USA content of more than 50%, assembled in the USA, the CS100 and CS300 will be defined as an USA manufactured aircraft.

As has been posted here before, US assembly becomes irrelevant if is is being used to circumvent the tariff, which this clearly is.


Oh come on! This is not a case of bolting on the wheels and calling it "final assembly". This is "clearly" a genuine FAL which will produce aircraft more made-in-USA than Boeing does.

What you're arguing is that simply by being (falsely) accused one time you may *NEVER EVER* be allowed to comply, ever again, no matter what you do.

That's silly.
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mjoelnir
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Re: Airbus and Bombardier Announce CSeries Partnership

Wed Oct 25, 2017 11:54 am

Revelation wrote:
mjoelnir wrote:
With an USA content of more than 50%, assembled in the USA, the CS100 and CS300 will be defined as an USA manufactured aircraft.

As has been posted here before, US assembly becomes irrelevant if is is being used to circumvent the tariff, which this clearly is.


Of course manufacturing is set up in the USA to circumvent or lower tariffs. The only other reason is to be able to compete for military or government contracts in the USA. Why otherwise move production to the USA?
It has even been on the Trump agenda for many industries, bring your manufacturing to us, otherwise we will put tariffs on you. A highly protectionist agenda. It would be strange for the USA to torpedo that agenda, when somebody actually moves production to the USA. The point were it is defined if a product manufactured in the USA or not, is local content. You can not discuss that point, only how much local content is needed.
 
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Revelation
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Re: Airbus and Bombardier Announce CSeries Partnership

Wed Oct 25, 2017 11:55 am

SomebodyInTLS wrote:
Revelation wrote:
mjoelnir wrote:
With an USA content of more than 50%, assembled in the USA, the CS100 and CS300 will be defined as an USA manufactured aircraft.

As has been posted here before, US assembly becomes irrelevant if is is being used to circumvent the tariff, which this clearly is.


Oh come on! This is not a case of bolting on the wheels and calling it "final assembly". This is "clearly" a genuine FAL which will produce aircraft more made-in-USA than Boeing does.

What you're arguing is that simply by being (falsely) accused one time you may *NEVER EVER* be allowed to comply, ever again, no matter what you do.

That's silly.

I'm not arguing, I'm just repeating what was said earlier.

It's a bit more nuanced than what either of us state:

washingtonflyer wrote:
So, I was shooting the breeze with a couple of colleagues over the weekend. This "deal" may not be the saving grace that Airbus or Bombardier wants. The dilemma that we see in this deal is that Airbus is now going to be "affiliated" with Bombardier/CSALP through an ownership stake in the C-Series program. Under US law, where you have affiliates doing further processing of merchandise that is subject to a tariff, the investigating agency (Commerce) has the authority to view the semifinished product as being subject to an AD/CVD order if an affiliate is completing assembly in the USA. Commerce has a special questionnaire - the Section "E" questionnaire that I mentioned in the other thread.

What this will hinge on is how far assembled the aircraft is.

Either way, here it appears that Delta is no longer on the hook for the duties. As the importer of record (this is an assumption) Airbus may now be on the hook for the 300% duties.

This is going to get fun...


This was posted earlier in this thread: viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1376389&start=1300#p19907231

If you've been reading along, @washingtonflyer is a lawyer working on trade issues so knows a lot more about it than most of us do. Trade issues are going on all the time. Someone earlier posted a list of all the actions Canada has started and of course the US one must be even longer. This one popped up on our radar because we're avgeeks, but there's all kinds of actions going on all the time and all kinds of rules to deal with circumvention. As usual, once something goes into the legal "sausage factory" you have no idea what will come out.

Personally, I think Boeing is being pretty foolish to try to resolve this via the legal system. The previous rounds of WTO rulings should tell it that it'll be a long, drawn out, expensive process that may or may not produce a favorable result.
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