So what do people think of this program with this recent news? Personally I thought the program was done before the news and now I think this was the final nail in the coffin. I just don't see where this program can go right now.

ikolkyo wrote:

So what do people think of this program with this recent news? Personally I thought the program was done before the news and now I think this was the final nail in the coffin. I just don't see where this program can go right now.

They are competing against the same product as yesterday.

The E2 series and the C-series are rather different aircraft, especially in terms of range. And the E2-175 does not really compete against the C-100 at all. And nothing here changes the economics of the comparable aircraft. So I don't think this will change the preference of any airline that would have favored the E2 series before the deal. Maybe some airline will have more faith in the C Series support network than before, but that's about it.

Airbus has shown a lack of willingness to invest in ATR, so there is some reason to wonder how much that want to invest in the C-series. (But no one knows for sure.)

The C-500 will not longer be developed (assuming that Airbus does not want it to compete against the A320). So if that was an helping lure orders, it's gone.

Embraer will be fine.

kitplane01 wrote:

ikolkyo wrote:

So what do people think of this program with this recent news? Personally I thought the program was done before the news and now I think this was the final nail in the coffin. I just don't see where this program can go right now.

They are competing against the same product as yesterday.

The E2 series and the C-series are rather different aircraft, especially in terms of range. And the E2-175 does not really compete against the C-100 at all. And nothing here changes the economics of the comparable aircraft. So I don't think this will change the preference of any airline that would have favored the E2 series before the deal. Maybe some airline will have more faith in the C Series support network than before, but that's about it.

Airbus has shown a lack of willingness to invest in ATR, so there is some reason to wonder how much that want to invest in the C-series. (But no one knows for sure.)

The C-500 will not longer be developed (assuming that Airbus does not want it to compete against the A320). So if that was an helping lure orders, it's gone.

Embraer will be fine.

You for some reason only mention the E175-E2, which is practically a dead plane with the US Scope issues.

Embraer will approach an american airline company and offer their E2 with huge discounts.
Airbus will say that this is illegal and blah blah blah

I wonder lol

ikolkyo wrote:

kitplane01 wrote:

ikolkyo wrote:

So what do people think of this program with this recent news? Personally I thought the program was done before the news and now I think this was the final nail in the coffin. I just don't see where this program can go right now.

They are competing against the same product as yesterday.

The E2 series and the C-series are rather different aircraft, especially in terms of range. And the E2-175 does not really compete against the C-100 at all. And nothing here changes the economics of the comparable aircraft. So I don't think this will change the preference of any airline that would have favored the E2 series before the deal. Maybe some airline will have more faith in the C Series support network than before, but that's about it.

Airbus has shown a lack of willingness to invest in ATR, so there is some reason to wonder how much that want to invest in the C-series. (But no one knows for sure.)

The C-500 will not longer be developed (assuming that Airbus does not want it to compete against the A320). So if that was an helping lure orders, it's gone.

Embraer will be fine.

You for some reason only mention the E175-E2, which is practically a dead plane with the US Scope issues.

The 175E2 may be dead in the US, but there is the rest of the world to consider.

Airbus investing in the C in my eyes is a double whammy to both stick it badly to Boeing and to totally stay in bed with Delta, which they weren't really in danger of losing anyway.

TWA772LR wrote:

ikolkyo wrote:

kitplane01 wrote:

They are competing against the same product as yesterday.

The E2 series and the C-series are rather different aircraft, especially in terms of range. And the E2-175 does not really compete against the C-100 at all. And nothing here changes the economics of the comparable aircraft. So I don't think this will change the preference of any airline that would have favored the E2 series before the deal. Maybe some airline will have more faith in the C Series support network than before, but that's about it.

Airbus has shown a lack of willingness to invest in ATR, so there is some reason to wonder how much that want to invest in the C-series. (But no one knows for sure.)

The C-500 will not longer be developed (assuming that Airbus does not want it to compete against the A320). So if that was an helping lure orders, it's gone.

Embraer will be fine.

You for some reason only mention the E175-E2, which is practically a dead plane with the US Scope issues.

The 175E2 may be d in the US, but there is the rest of the world to consider.

Airbus investing in the C in my eyes is a double whammy to both stick it badly to Boeing and to totally stay in bed with Delta, which they weren't really in danger of losing anyway.

Well the aircraft has 0 orders outside the US and only has 1 order in the books which is Skywest's 100 aircraft order.

The problem for Embraer here is that Airbus is very good at selling planes compared to Embraer or Bombardier. They can offer the CSeries in bundle with other of their own aircraft and make other deals that Embraer can’t giving the CSeries more of an edge. Discussing the CS500 isn’t relevant here, but I wouldn’t necessarily rule it out in the unforseeable future considering Airbus expects their A320 production to move greatly in favour of the A321 which would be far out of reach of the CS500 or even a slightly stretched A320 would be out of reach of a CS500.

TWA772LR wrote:

The 175E2 may be dead in the US, but there is the rest of the world to consider.

The smaller E-Jets never did sell very well outside of the US, the trend has so far continued with the E2.

ikolkyo wrote:

kitplane01 wrote:

ikolkyo wrote:

So what do people think of this program with this recent news? Personally I thought the program was done before the news and now I think this was the final nail in the coffin. I just don't see where this program can go right now.

They are competing against the same product as yesterday.

The E2 series and the C-series are rather different aircraft, especially in terms of range. And the E2-175 does not really compete against the C-100 at all. And nothing here changes the economics of the comparable aircraft. So I don't think this will change the preference of any airline that would have favored the E2 series before the deal. Maybe some airline will have more faith in the C Series support network than before, but that's about it.

Airbus has shown a lack of willingness to invest in ATR, so there is some reason to wonder how much that want to invest in the C-series. (But no one knows for sure.)

The C-500 will not longer be developed (assuming that Airbus does not want it to compete against the A320). So if that was an helping lure orders, it's gone.

Embraer will be fine.

You for some reason only mention the E175-E2, which is practically a dead plane with the US Scope issues.

I'm sorry if I was unclear.

The E2-175 does not compete against the C-series, and is available for sale in the whole world, and is unaffected by this. The E2-195 does compete against the CS-100, and for the reasons described above I think will be fine (although I concede no one knows for sure).

ikolkyo wrote:

kitplane01 wrote:

ikolkyo wrote:

So what do people think of this program with this recent news? Personally I thought the program was done before the news and now I think this was the final nail in the coffin. I just don't see where this program can go right now.

They are competing against the same product as yesterday.

The E2 series and the C-series are rather different aircraft, especially in terms of range. And the E2-175 does not really compete against the C-100 at all. And nothing here changes the economics of the comparable aircraft. So I don't think this will change the preference of any airline that would have favored the E2 series before the deal. Maybe some airline will have more faith in the C Series support network than before, but that's about it.

Airbus has shown a lack of willingness to invest in ATR, so there is some reason to wonder how much that want to invest in the C-series. (But no one knows for sure.)

The C-500 will not longer be developed (assuming that Airbus does not want it to compete against the A320). So if that was an helping lure orders, it's gone.

Embraer will be fine.

You for some reason only mention the E175-E2, which is practically a dead plane with the US Scope issues.

The E2-190 and E2-195 still have merit. However, there sales aren't great.

Personally, the prospects for the E2 jets increase with size:

E2-175 is probably dead. No bank will do a sales/lease back.
E2-190 should sell more, but I think far fewer than the original E-190 (e.g., no JetBlue).
E2-195 has the best prospects. While it lacks range, it carries more people than the CS100. Embraer must figure out how to get another 200 to 300nm for US sales.

With Airbus sales and supply chain discounts, the CS100 is now more viable.

Lightsaber

How the E2 program is in danger? It is still on budget and on time. Having spend 1.7 billion dollar in a full to develop a full modernized aircraft. It shares the same nose and crosssection of the E1, but other than that it is a completely new aircraft. This development costs means that they can offer the aircraft for very competitive prices, for a product that have several cost advantages over CS100. For CS300, Embraer does not have a real competitor. But Embraer objective is really to secure 80 to 120 seats market.

GmvAfcs wrote:

How the E2 program is in danger? It is still on budget and on time. Having spend 1.7 billion dollar in a full to develop a full modernized aircraft. It shares the same nose and crosssection of the E1, but other than that it is a completely new aircraft. This development costs means that they can offer the aircraft for very competitive prices, for a product that have several cost advantages over CS100. For CS300, Embraer does not have a real competitor. But Embraer objective is really to secure 80 to 120 seats market.

175 isn't going to be possible for regional. In the rest of the world, not many countries are buying regional jet, when larger jets offer much better economics.

190 and 195 are battling against an aircraft with much greater potential.

For example just looking JetBlue, Embraer may be able to offer a deal that will arrive at better economics than CS100. However, Airbus will be able to offer a package deal of CS100, CS500 and A321NEO for the fleet of future. And then JetBlue can replace A320 with CS500 down the road. Embraer would have to offer a really good deal to overcome that.

ikolkyo wrote:

So what do people think of this program with this recent news? Personally I thought the program was done before the news and now I think this was the final nail in the coffin. I just don't see where this program can go right now.

Well there's Embraer people who would probably make up some odd reasoning as to why our thoughts are wrong... I personally agree with you completely.

Well, if E2 fails, Embraer will cease to exist. Simple as that. Embraer does not have ANY government support! And if it had, the government would. It have money to support!

GmvAfcs wrote:

How the E2 program is in danger? It is still on budget and on time. Having spend 1.7 billion dollar in a full to develop a full modernized aircraft. It shares the same nose and crosssection of the E1, but other than that it is a completely new aircraft. This development costs means that they can offer the aircraft for very competitive prices, for a product that have several cost advantages over CS100. For CS300, Embraer does not have a real competitor. But Embraer objective is really to secure 80 to 120 seats market.

There are 68 firm orders for the E2-190.
There are 65 firm orders for the E2-195, with the 30 to Azul the big order.

The orders for the E2-175 are conditional on a scope clause change I wouldn't bet on happening, unless you see a reason the pilots would vote against their own economic self interests... Seriously, the E2-175 is dead. That leaves only 113 firm orders. They aren't bad aircraft, the question is why haven't they sold better? And yes, the C-series had this issue prior to the DL order. Unfortunately for Embraer, they must now find their Delta order. It is a tougher market today (seriously today, as the Airbus deal with the C-series just saved that plane). What sort of deal is Embraer willling to make on the E2-195.

In my opinion, the E2-195 is the plane that will do well. They're in the 98 to 146 seat market (bummer they couldn't stretch to 150 seats in high density). Accept it now or later, but the smaller version of the E2 jets is done.
The CS100 seats 108 to 132, so it is a little bigger than the E2-190 and smaller than the E2-195 in a really... odd niche (I see no demand for that specific niche over a slightly longer plane or a plane that is allowed to fly with 2 Flight attendants).

I think there will be more sales, but unfortunately, Embraer must offer a deal. But not too good of a deal that scares away leasing companies...

Lightsaber

I live 30 miles from SJK and can hear from here some phones ringing nonstop with some intl calls from Seattle...
Sadly no one is at the office now, it's 12:04am now.
Tomorrow's gonna be a busy day for those who turned off their mobiles tonight...

kitplane01 wrote:

ikolkyo wrote:

kitplane01 wrote:

They are competing against the same product as yesterday.

The E2 series and the C-series are rather different aircraft, especially in terms of range. And the E2-175 does not really compete against the C-100 at all. And nothing here changes the economics of the comparable aircraft. So I don't think this will change the preference of any airline that would have favored the E2 series before the deal. Maybe some airline will have more faith in the C Series support network than before, but that's about it.

Airbus has shown a lack of willingness to invest in ATR, so there is some reason to wonder how much that want to invest in the C-series. (But no one knows for sure.)

The C-500 will not longer be developed (assuming that Airbus does not want it to compete against the A320). So if that was an helping lure orders, it's gone.

Embraer will be fine.

You for some reason only mention the E175-E2, which is practically a dead plane with the US Scope issues.

I'm sorry if I was unclear.

The E2-175 does not compete against the C-series, and is available for sale in the whole world, and is unaffected by this. The E2-195 does compete against the CS-100, and for the reasons described above I think will be fine (although I concede no one knows for sure).

Actually the E195-E2 competes against the CS300. The E190-E2 would be more of a competitor the the CS100. I would not be surprised to see B6 jump on the CS100 & CS300 now. It will allow replacement of a problem airframe for them in the E190 & allow a larger model thaw more competitive than the A319 in the CS300.

I would expect to see the few carriers that ordered the A319 to be switch to the CS300 by Airbus. It will make them more money, has better economics then the A319 and with the new structure allow Airbus to up the A320neo by a couple rows. That would allow A320/A321 on larger end & CS covering the older A318/A319/736/73G markets. All while having wider seats & better comfort. Both use sidesticks so some updating of cockpits & flight envelope might be in future.

ojjunior wrote:

I live 30 miles from SJK and can hear from here some phones ringing nonstop with some intl calls from Seattle...
Sadly no one is at the office now, it's 12:04am now.
Tomorrow's gonna be a busy day for those who turned off their mobiles tonight...

Do not bet your cents on that.

The EJets E1 program started timidly.
Today we have of the four models up to September 30 of this year 1,377 units delivered and between firm orders and purchase options plus 426 units in the backlog.

Next year the E190-E2 will enter commercially in operation.
So far the tests show that it not only meets the project specifications but also surpasses them.
It's only a matter of time before sales can happen.

It is worth remembering that in the recent Le Bourget salon Embraer commercialized for two undisclosed customers firm sales for another 40 units of the E190-E2 and E195-E2 models.

And if some consider the E175-E2 a project without a future, it is worth remembering that the current model E175-E1 is a bestseller mainly among the American regional, where it holds more than 60% of the market. And as a hint, nothing prevents the new interior design of the E175-E2 aircraft from being applied to the current E1 model.

rbavfan wrote:

Actually the E195-E2 competes against the CS300. The E190-E2 would be more of a competitor the the CS100. I would not be surprised to see B6 jump on the CS100 & CS300 now. It will allow replacement of a problem airframe for them in the E190 & allow a larger model thaw more competitive than the A319 in the CS300.

Just to remind you that they still have paid over 40 E190-E1 and whose deliveries were postponed to after 2019 ...
I believe they will convert this order to the E2 model.

EMBSPBR wrote:

ojjunior wrote:

I live 30 miles from SJK and can hear from here some phones ringing nonstop with some intl calls from Seattle...
Sadly no one is at the office now, it's 12:04am now.
Tomorrow's gonna be a busy day for those who turned off their mobiles tonight...

Do not bet your cents on that.

It sounds like ojjunior meant that Boeing (Seattle) is calling Embraer for a partnership of sorts.

Boeing and Embraer already has a partnership going back to 2012. It would be curious to know Boeing’s take on the development with Bombardier and Airbus. I do not rule out an even closer tie up between Boeing and their Brazilian friends.

Her is a press release from last year about Boeing and Embraer ecodemonstrator partnership. http://www.boeing.com/features/2016/07/ ... 07-16.page

lightsaber wrote:

E2-195 has the best prospects. While it lacks range, it carries more people than the CS100. Embraer must figure out how to get another 200 to 300nm for US sales.

I'm curious why you think the E2-195 needs more range. What route do think the E2-195 currently cannot fly, but could with another 200-300 more range? Routes like Miami-Seattle or NYC->LAX are for larger planes with more seats. Hawaii -> Inland is not a huge market.

Embraer will be just fine. The ones that say that the company will be dead, are simply misinformed. Only their Bizjet division (which BBD has lost ages ago) will guarantee this.
The E2 Project will face some competition from the, let's say, A2xx projects but in compensation, BBD will be gone as a competitor the time it delivers DLs orders since Airbus (although might keep the name), will wholly govern that entity.
There are some intersections on the E2 and C-Series range depending on how you look into it but, now, what we have, is two well supported projects (Embraer with more independence, less debt and more backlog on orders) by A & B (the big players).
This will mean certainly an incoming increase on partnership between Boeing and Embraer towards balancing the Airbus takeover of BBD. A Polarization of the 100 seat, RJs will follow and you will see, potentially, Embraer coming with a new product to do for Boeing what BBD will do for Airbus - a range spread from the less than 100 seats all the way to over 350 seats with Embraer, maybe, coming with some sort of E-2xx (curiously, even the project numbers would match...) sized aircraft.
I think it will be good fro Embraer which will consolidate their Boeing Partnership as it would be for BBD if their deal with Airbus was similar. But since Airbus has effectively taken over BBD, then, unless E and B make a similar deal, E will always be better of then BBD

lightsaber wrote:

The orders for the E2-175 are conditional on a scope clause change I wouldn't bet on happening,

The scope clause only applies within the US. What is the E2-175 sales prospect outside the US?

I for one think that the Bombardier-Airbus tie-up is going to benefit Embraer. I think Airbus will focus on the larger C' variants that seat 130 or more passengers. That will leave Embraer to practically dominate anything below that.

KarelXWB wrote:

What is the E2-175 sales prospect outside the US?

Any E170, E175, ERJ145 and CRJ100/200/700/900 operators. Should be something between 600 and 700 planes. I would guess that 150 seems likely, unless any serious alternatives come out.

EMBSPBR wrote:

rbavfan wrote:

Actually the E195-E2 competes against the CS300. The E190-E2 would be more of a competitor the the CS100. I would not be surprised to see B6 jump on the CS100 & CS300 now. It will allow replacement of a problem airframe for them in the E190 & allow a larger model thaw more competitive than the A319 in the CS300.

Just to remind you that they still have paid over 40 E190-E1 and whose deliveries were postponed to after 2019 ...
I believe they will convert this order to the E2 model.

They have 24 undelivered, so please stop spreading Your number.

While I thought it made sense for JetBlue to stick with embraer, but now with airbus in the fold, I think JetBlue will buy c series and it will be great for JetBlue customers.

tphuang wrote:

They have 24 undelivered, so please stop spreading Your number.

It isn´t my number Sir.
They ordered 100 E190 back in 2003.
From the order, 60 were receveid and the 24 E-190s that were deferred to 2020-2022 were initially planned for delivery in 2014-2018.
The remain 16 are due to be receveid from 2022.
They are firm orders and still are in the Embraer´s backlog.

EMBSPBR wrote:

tphuang wrote:

They have 24 undelivered, so please stop spreading Your number.

It isn´t my number Sir.
They ordered 100 E190 back in 2003.
From the order, 60 were receveid and the 24 E-190s that were deferred to 2020-2022 were initially planned for delivery in 2014-2018.
The remain 16 are due to be receveid from 2022.
They are firm orders and still are in the Embraer´s backlog.

I don't know where you got your number of remaining order but i got my from JetBlue end of 2016 annual report which you can get from their website. I don't know what has happened to the 16 orders that you are thinking of but JetBlue certainly does not think it exists.

tphuang wrote:

EMBSPBR wrote:

tphuang wrote:

They have 24 undelivered, so please stop spreading Your number.

It isn´t my number Sir.
They ordered 100 E190 back in 2003.
From the order, 60 were receveid and the 24 E-190s that were deferred to 2020-2022 were initially planned for delivery in 2014-2018.
The remain 16 are due to be receveid from 2022.
They are firm orders and still are in the Embraer´s backlog.

I don't know where you got your number of remaining order but i got my from JetBlue end of 2016 annual report which you can get from their website. I don't know what has happened to the 16 orders that you are thinking of but JetBlue certainly does not think it exists.

Source:
http://www.businesswire.com/news/home/2 ... ER-190-Jet

Excerpt:
"NEW YORK--(BUSINESS WIRE)--June 10, 2003--JetBlue Airways Corporation (NASDAQ: JBLU) announced today that it has placed an order for 100 new EMBRAER 190 jet aircraft, with options for an additional 100 new aircraft.
Embraer values the firm contract at $3 billion, with a potential value of $6 billion if all options are exercised."

Excerpt:
"JetBlue plans to take delivery of the first seven Embraer aircraft in 2005, with the remainder of the order expected to be delivered through 2011 at a rate of approximately 18 per year."

Source:
https://www.airinsight.com/the-e-190-and-jetblue/

Excerpt:
"Two weeks ago JetBlue deferred deliveries on 24 E-190s, pushing deliveries to 2020."

The 24 deferred airplanes are part of they original order of a total of 100 and not the remain of that.
Believe me, there are still 40 aircraft sold to JetBlue in our backlog ...

EMBSPBR wrote:

tphuang wrote:

EMBSPBR wrote:

It isn´t my number Sir.
They ordered 100 E190 back in 2003.
From the order, 60 were receveid and the 24 E-190s that were deferred to 2020-2022 were initially planned for delivery in 2014-2018.
The remain 16 are due to be receveid from 2022.
They are firm orders and still are in the Embraer´s backlog.

I don't know where you got your number of remaining order but i got my from JetBlue end of 2016 annual report which you can get from their website. I don't know what has happened to the 16 orders that you are thinking of but JetBlue certainly does not think it exists.

Source:
http://www.businesswire.com/news/home/2 ... ER-190-Jet

Excerpt:
"NEW YORK--(BUSINESS WIRE)--June 10, 2003--JetBlue Airways Corporation (NASDAQ: JBLU) announced today that it has placed an order for 100 new EMBRAER 190 jet aircraft, with options for an additional 100 new aircraft.
Embraer values the firm contract at $3 billion, with a potential value of $6 billion if all options are exercised."

Excerpt:
"JetBlue plans to take delivery of the first seven Embraer aircraft in 2005, with the remainder of the order expected to be delivered through 2011 at a rate of approximately 18 per year."

Source:
https://www.airinsight.com/the-e-190-and-jetblue/

Excerpt:
"Two weeks ago JetBlue deferred deliveries on 24 E-190s, pushing deliveries to 2020."

The 24 deferred airplanes are part of they original order of a total of 100 and not the remain of that.
Believe me, there are still 40 aircraft sold to JetBlue in our backlog ...

That's news to JetBlue. Please go read their annual report from end of 2016.

You are assuming there has been no amendment to the contract or JetBlue hasn't sold any.