Which airlines become obvious customers now that Airbus is selling the CSeries?

JetBlue

FoxtrotSierra wrote:

JetBlue

How does B6 dump their remaining E190 orders though? Also, Jetblue has no A319s. Do they need something in that size category with the CS300?

Devilfish wrote:

Which raises the question -- depending on value, would airlines be able to convert (not necessarily 1:1) existing orders from Airbus to CSeries models and vice versa without incurring penalties under this limited partnership

I don't think Airbus lets them do that right now. I think for a start will just see far more existing customers convert on options.

For example, I imagine DL will exercise every option and purchase right they have. And they get the right to substitute the CS300 for most of them. I believe they have 50 options on top of 75 firm? They got a fantastic price. Sure they wait a bit longer. But they get fantastic frames at dirt cheap prices. I can see them ordering a lot more on top of those too. They've still got ~70 319s and 73Gs and another ~90 717s. I am sure Airbus offers them a package deal with 320 and 321 NEOs to fill their needs for a decade.

What it comes down to in my mind is this:
1. Are airlines not buying it because they question BBDs stability as a business?
2. Do they think BBDs support network is not robust enough to support the model?
3. Airlines believe they don't need that kind of performance on that small of an aircraft.

The potential of a Jetblue CSeries like the CS100 and even the CS300 order would allow to still operate at the current E190 airports that have short runways that the A320/A321 can’t operate at, yet the CS100/300 can potentially do transcons to new or existing destinations that don’t warrant a 320/321. Plus the range of the CSeries could allow new destinations and untilizations of existing routes in the Caribbean and South America.
Now that Airbus is controlling the CS program they could offer to pay any contract penalties that Jetblue could be forced to pay or whatever from Embraer. This has happened before where Boeing has bought airbus aircraft from airlines to win an order. Boeing has E190s they have been trying to unload from the Air Canada deal.

The potential of future Airbus orders could allow Jetblue to unload the existing E190 orders that have been delayed indefinitely to be taken off their books completely.

Will/ Is it commercially feasable for Airbus to change the cookpit layout of CS serious?
If yes, their "common control logic" can gain many sales from large airlines
as their WB pilots can fly all the way from CS100 to A321.

hongkongflyer wrote:

Will/ Is it commercially feasable for Airbus to change the cookpit layout of CS serious?
If yes, their "common control logic" can gain many sales from large airlines
as their WB pilots can fly all the way from CS100 to A321.

"When announcing the deal, Airbus Chief Executive Officer Tom Enders said it’s too early to speculate on whether the C Series will form the basis for the company’s next short-haul offering. He acknowledged that the Toulouse, France-based company is likely to take cues in areas such as the Canadian model’s cockpit design and advanced aeronautics."

From: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... ns-new-jet

I don't think it's for certain that Airbus will redesign the CSeries cockpit. They might see benefit in eventually adopting the CSeries cockpit on their A320 replacement instead.

Would love to see them at AA, this may allow AA to convert those A350 orders to something they dont have right now. Unfortunately, I think the execs are not lying when they say thay they dont see the need for a 100 seater, at least unless they get a Delta deal or something unlikely like that.

TWA772LR wrote:

What it comes down to in my mind is this:
1. Are airlines not buying it because they question BBDs stability as a business?
2. Do they think BBDs support network is not robust enough to support the model?
3. Airlines believe they don't need that kind of performance on that small of an aircraft.

I tend to think it’s likely a mix of all three. I can’t think of many operators need a 100-150 seat aircraft with 3,000nm range. But I do think Airbus now major partner probably puts the first 2 reservations to rest. I think the C-Series has a bright future. I think the CS500 could be a potent aircraft in the 738/A320 size range. Airbus could them focus on A321 and larger derivatives or new MOM competitor sized planes. All in all, good move. I wonder if we see current A320 operators now consider the CS300 for their sub 150 seat needs.

sagechan wrote:

Would love to see them at AA, this may allow AA to convert those A350 orders to something they dont have right now. Unfortunately, I think the execs are not lying when they say thay they dont see the need for a 100 seater, at least unless they get a Delta deal or something unlikely like that.

I can't see AA ordering it, last I remember they're trying to reduce the amount of aircraft types they utilize in order to simplify their fleet, at this point I'll be surprised if the A350 order even lasts, I could possibly see them either converting them to some type of A330's, canceling it all together, or exercising their options for more 787's.

Next chess move- BA takes EMB (queen to knight); EADS in check.

AirAsia showing renewed interest this last summer suddenly makes a lot more sense now.

EasyJet is the largest A319 operator in the world. They could use the CS300 to replace the A319 in the future.

I would say that any Airbus Customer is a C-Series Customer - NOT BBD though. Including ME3 customers which are untapped by either the C-Series or E2 programs. It is a fair game now and I am sure Airbus will push for plenty of orders. For the C-Series Project, this is great news. For the E2 Project, same applies in regards to Boeing which will use E2 to contra the C-Series.
What we will see here is amore polarized ,market down the order, similar to what we already have on the medium to large sized aircrafts.
The losers are COMAC, Mitsubishi and Sukhoi, for example.
But I simply do not buy the idea that a CS500 will be brought to life at all since Airbus will not surrender to a JV 50% of the profits it accrues on a successful program which is the A320. Added that the A320 just got a new lease of life with the NEO, until this runs through, and only provided that Airbus leaves this behind, no CS500 will become reality.
What I expect also is that Embraer may be pushed by Boeing to come up with a new Program to provide them the kind of seat allocation that the B737-600NG used to have so that Boeing completes the range with a direct competitor to the CS300 which it does not have presently. Boeing themselves probably will not develop this.
Then we will enter on a basically polarized market shared between A & B (and their minions...).

I could see the LH group placing an order in the not too distant future....

oldannyboy wrote:

I could see the LH group placing an order in the not too distant future....

LH Group already have one with LX...

Hey guys,
Despite Alan Joyce's comments in Seattle this week of the replacement of QF's 737-800s being a MAX versus Neo duel, I think that converting the eight deferred A380 orders to CSeries just may be considered..... And free up QF to order 777-8s and possibly -9s without taking the hit of possibly losing the Airbus $$$. The CSeries would be a perfect compliment to whichever mainline narrow body is chosen by QF, and could operate routes that the 717s are increasingly flying on the east coast of Australia. CSeries could also open up new Pacific islands, transtasman, PNG and secondary Indonesian routes....
Cheers,
Bunumuring.

A local tv station here in Mobile reported yesterday that the C-series will be manufactured here alongside the 320 FAL. Excellent news!

Air France & KLM, these two can pool in their purchasing resources as part of Air France-KLM to replace a combined good size fleet of A318/A319/B737-700.

tysmith95 wrote:

EasyJet is the largest A319 operator in the world. They could use the CS300 to replace the A319 in the future.

Given that EasyJet is moving away from the 150 seat market with their new orders for the A320/1Neo, it wouldn't appear likely. That said, the CSeries is now a contender with any Airbus operator, with far lower risks than previously attainable, given that long term maintenance and project support is now guaranteed, with Airbus underlining any agreements. I'd put money on IAG, if they could install container cargo bins on the CSeries.

I hope that Embraer remains independent too, their position is far stronger than BBD. The Brazilians can learn from the Canadian's mistakes and launch a true A320/B737 contender when the time is right, they just need to sell the E2 like it's going out of fashion for the next few years. It'll be a boring world if we still have a duopoly for the next 20 years. Embraer is now the only OEM (with a proven track record) left that can break it.

Devilfish wrote:

Which raises the question -- depending on value, would airlines be able to convert (not necessarily 1:1) existing orders from Airbus to CSeries models and vice versa without incurring penalties under this limited partnership

Not very likely - except perhaps airlines which have the A319neo on order. Can't see any widebody orders (AA A350 or QF A380) being converted.

As for future orders, AF/KL planned to issue a RFP for narrowbody replacement - mostly destined for AF. I could see Airbus offering the CS100/300 as A318/A319 replacement next to the A32x neo. Would love to see KL transferring their 737 fleet to Transavia and go for the A32x neo (and eventually the CS100/300 as well). One can dream....

Just a thought, you can use c series to do the lcy to snn to JFK flight. That may be of interest to some Us airlines and ba/vs.

Maybe Iran Air?

Flyingabout wrote:

tysmith95 wrote:

EasyJet is the largest A319 operator in the world. They could use the CS300 to replace the A319 in the future.

Given that EasyJet is moving away from the 150 seat market with their new orders for the A320/1Neo, it wouldn't appear likely. That said, the CSeries is now a contender with any Airbus operator, with far lower risks than previously attainable, given that long term maintenance and project support is now guaranteed, with Airbus underlining any agreements. I'd put money on IAG, if they could install container cargo bins on the CSeries.

Easyjet was very much interested in the CS300, until Airbus reportedly offered the A320neo for the same price as Bombardier offered the CS300. Would this RFP be in place today, I'm pretty sure Airbus would have offered both CS300 and A320neo, albeit with a higher price for the A320neo. Not sure how many options/purchase rights Easyjet still has on the neo, but if they haven't any left I could see renewed interest for the CS300.

IAG surely must be interested in the CS300 too, as most other large A319 operators will be.

WN would be a nice candidate. Filling in those smaller cities with CS versus 737 works better. I think 737 has gotten to big for some of their routes to smaller markets. I realize it's unlikely but they would be able to integrate this to off set the 737's. They could also be used to open up all of the Hawaiian islands.

Someone who knows more than me would probably be better at answering this, but is it too late for Airbus to kill off the 319neo if Frontier and Avianca allowed their 319neo orders to be converted to CS300 and/or 320neo? I know that they are towards the final stages of testing, but with very few recent orders (6 out of 3,468 net new orders 2013-17), it might make sense to kill that variant and push people to the CS300.

I agree with others, jetBlue becomes a strong contender for an order now, depending on what their options are for the new E190s (pawn off to Airbus, cancel and pay the penalty of it is low enough, etc.)

TWA772LR wrote:

What it comes down to in my mind is this:
1. Are airlines not buying it because they question BBDs stability as a business?
2. Do they think BBDs support network is not robust enough to support the model?
3. Airlines believe they don't need that kind of performance on that small of an aircraft.

That was def. a point. Even at BBD customers.

In regards to JetBlue, if they want to go TATL, I would think they need to hit up a few ciites they may serviced in the past or new cities that coule help the feed. Let's take Boston/Memphis with a PDEW of a 100+ according to ANNA Aero. Nonstop service was stopped in 2012 with the Delta dehubbing. Add in that Memphis sees over 2 million international tourists a year that could bolster that PDEW if JetBlue goes TATL. Add a JFK which lackw any direct Memphis service and FFL and you have a nice new station.

If JetBlue added the C-Series it would start getting them about the same time Memphis wraps up it's complete Concourse B overhaul and consolidation.

Boeingphan wrote:

WN would be a nice candidate. Filling in those smaller cities with CS versus 737 works better. I think 737 has gotten to big for some of their routes to smaller markets. I realize it's unlikely but they would be able to integrate this to off set the 737's. They could also be used to open up all of the Hawaiian islands.

This would be the ultimate insult to Boeing and least likely senario to happen outside of Alaska Air getting The C-Series which would be a good choice to expand into Middle USA.

lowfareair wrote:

Someone who knows more than me would probably be better at answering this, but is it too late for Airbus to kill off the 319neo if Frontier and Avianca allowed their 319neo orders to be converted to CS300 and/or 320neo? I know that they are towards the final stages of testing, but with very few recent orders (6 out of 3,468 net new orders 2013-17), it might make sense to kill that variant and push people to the CS300.

I agree with others, jetBlue becomes a strong contender for an order now, depending on what their options are for the new E190s (pawn off to Airbus, cancel and pay the penalty of it is low enough, etc.)

No, according to the WSJ yesterday this could be a way out of the obligation to manufacture the 319neo of which there are only 50+ on order.

But the main reason given for this move was the fear amongst senior Airbus mgt that the Chinese would swoop in and buy the C-Series program and use it as a foundational ground up platform as they embark on competing against A&B.

Smart

As the LH Group takes over some former Airberlin routes (also some german domestic routes) - Could be that the LH Group convert the 30 options they have to firm orders for the CS300.

runway23 wrote:

oldannyboy wrote:

I could see the LH group placing an order in the not too distant future....

LH Group already have one with LX...

Thanks for that maybe I should have said a 'repeat' order.. I think the bird could easily end up wearing LH colours in the future...

JulietteBravo wrote:

As the LH Group takes over some former Airberlin routes (also some german domestic routes) - Could be that the LH Group convert the 30 options they have to firm orders for the CS300.

Let's say it like this, LH is really pleased with the C-Series performance at Swiss. I've no doubts that well see the C-Series also @LH

I'll go out on a limb and say Frontier.

No one has been ordering aircraft in this size range, whether it's EMB, BBD, Airbus or Boeing. I don't see how this helps sell this particular aircraft, and no they won't redesign a cockpit right after getting it certified. There's not going to be a common type rating with an A320 series for the C-series ever.

The E2 and C-series are the primary two competitors (despite folks like Leeham even claiming otherwise now). Neither has been selling well the past few years.

https://leehamnews.com/2014/01/13/embra ... at-sector/

Boeingphan wrote:

WN would be a nice candidate. Filling in those smaller cities with CS versus 737 works better. I think 737 has gotten to big for some of their routes to smaller markets. I realize it's unlikely but they would be able to integrate this to off set the 737's. They could also be used to open up all of the Hawaiian islands.

The CS300 really won't be any smaller than WN's 73Gs in their configuration. I don't see WN being interested in the CS100.

The Airbus partnership mostly helps the CS300's future (and odds of the CS500 happening in the future), it doesn't change the fact that the CS100 is frankly overbuilt for a 100 seater (just like how the A319neo is overbuilt for its size). The CS100's market is still going to be limited.

ytz wrote:

hongkongflyer wrote:

Will/ Is it commercially feasable for Airbus to change the cookpit layout of CS serious?
If yes, their "common control logic" can gain many sales from large airlines
as their WB pilots can fly all the way from CS100 to A321.

"When announcing the deal, Airbus Chief Executive Officer Tom Enders said it’s too early to speculate on whether the C Series will form the basis for the company’s next short-haul offering. He acknowledged that the Toulouse, France-based company is likely to take cues in areas such as the Canadian model’s cockpit design and advanced aeronautics."

From: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... ns-new-jet

I don't think it's for certain that Airbus will redesign the CSeries cockpit. They might see benefit in eventually adopting the CSeries cockpit on their A320 replacement instead.

I also doubt it will occur, at least in the near term. Maybe the long term and maybe from CSeries->A32x instead. But right now, instead of pouring more engineering $$ in Cseries, I think the goal is to sell more and start making some $$ back.

smithbs wrote:

ytz wrote:

hongkongflyer wrote:

Will/ Is it commercially feasable for Airbus to change the cookpit layout of CS serious?
If yes, their "common control logic" can gain many sales from large airlines
as their WB pilots can fly all the way from CS100 to A321.

"When announcing the deal, Airbus Chief Executive Officer Tom Enders said it’s too early to speculate on whether the C Series will form the basis for the company’s next short-haul offering. He acknowledged that the Toulouse, France-based company is likely to take cues in areas such as the Canadian model’s cockpit design and advanced aeronautics."

From: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... ns-new-jet

I don't think it's for certain that Airbus will redesign the CSeries cockpit. They might see benefit in eventually adopting the CSeries cockpit on their A320 replacement instead.

I also doubt it will occur, at least in the near term. Maybe the long term and maybe from CSeries->A32x instead. But right now, instead of pouring more engineering $$ in Cseries, I think the goal is to sell more and start making some $$ back.

Airbus might adopt some of the C-series cockpit in the future, but in the end there have been ~12,411 A320ceos/neos sold versus 360 C-Series. Maintaining commonality with those A320s in the future (or adjusting the C series to closer match the A320) will be more important to Airbus than having future product move to exact commonality with the C series.

DAL: 50 more CS300's and 150 CS500's (which will be ordered in 2018)

I expect them to have 120 in service by 2023 with 180 more still coming. 300 in service by 2027. And a GTF overhaul facility.

They may have to lease some used A319s for a year or three to get MOB up and running, I expect Airbus can offer 40-50 used A319s VERY cheaply. DAL already has the simulators and spare parts, it'll be easy to drop 50 319s in for 24 months.

Man, it must suck to be in the Boeing executive offices today! Hahahahaha!

freakyrat wrote:

I'll go out on a limb and say Frontier.

There's that Republic order in limbo, although not attached to that order they could revisit it with Airbus in the drivers seat now.

WaywardMemphian wrote:

freakyrat wrote:

I'll go out on a limb and say Frontier.

There's that Republic order in limbo, although not attached to that order they could revisit it with Airbus in the drivers seat now.

Unless Republic wants ATRs there is little Republic can do with the order even with Airbus in the drivers seat. It is not like Airbus actually offers a usable product (other than the aforemention share in ATR) for Republic.

cm642 wrote:

sagechan wrote:

Would love to see them at AA, this may allow AA to convert those A350 orders to something they dont have right now. Unfortunately, I think the execs are not lying when they say thay they dont see the need for a 100 seater, at least unless they get a Delta deal or something unlikely like that.

I can't see AA ordering it, last I remember they're trying to reduce the amount of aircraft types they utilize in order to simplify their fleet, at this point I'll be surprised if the A350 order even lasts, I could possibly see them either converting them to some type of A330's, canceling it all together, or exercising their options for more 787's.

AA has never said they have an issue with multiple fleets, just look at the A350 comments and the issue they have looks to be small unique fleets. If AA thought they could use 60+ C series they would take it. I think the issue becomes they dont need the CS300 as they have sufficient A319s in that size, and they probably think they dont need 60-100 100 seaters as they only have 20 E190s to replace. Personally, I think 50-60 CS100s would find a good niche in AAs network and the 76-128 seat gap is too large. But I dont see them ordering it without a very good deal.

ytz wrote:

How does B6 dump their remaining E190 orders though? Also, Jetblue has no A319s. Do they need something in that size category with the CS300?

In North America Jetblue should customer priority numero uno. Jetblue will soon be refitting their 320s with 165 seats. Thier seat gap between will grow to 65 seats. That's too large for a carrier like Jetblue in my opinion. I have stated before here anything the 320 currently does for Jetblue, the c-series, in theory, can do.

CS100 - Replace the E190..Opens up longer routes where the 320 is too large for (100 Seats)
CS300- Fill the gap between CS100 and 320 Opens up longer routes where the 320 is too large for but can fill 30-40 extra seats over the CS100 (130-140 seats)
CS500 (if developed) Could replace the 320

I am convinced Embraer will not paint another Jetblue plane

I think thee is to much speculation regarding the CS500. As it is it does no even exist on paper. As good as the CS100 and CS300 can be, it is not guarantied that the next stretch will be a world beater. What will the CS500 be, a simple stretch of the CS300 or a similar capable frame with a bigger wing, higher MTOW and a similar range as the CS300. Were is a point were a long 5 across frame gets less efficient than a shorter 6 across frame.

I think the emphasis will be to sell and produce some CS100 and CS300 and make some money, before their will be a decision if the next size up will be designed. As it is the A320 is still selling like hot cakes.

frigatebird wrote:

Flyingabout wrote:

tysmith95 wrote:

EasyJet is the largest A319 operator in the world. They could use the CS300 to replace the A319 in the future.

Given that EasyJet is moving away from the 150 seat market with their new orders for the A320/1Neo, it wouldn't appear likely. That said, the CSeries is now a contender with any Airbus operator, with far lower risks than previously attainable, given that long term maintenance and project support is now guaranteed, with Airbus underlining any agreements. I'd put money on IAG, if they could install container cargo bins on the CSeries.

Easyjet was very much interested in the CS300, until Airbus reportedly offered the A320neo for the same price as Bombardier offered the CS300. Would this RFP be in place today, I'm pretty sure Airbus would have offered both CS300 and A320neo, albeit with a higher price for the A320neo. Not sure how many options/purchase rights Easyjet still has on the neo, but if they haven't any left I could see renewed interest for the CS300.

IAG surely must be interested in the CS300 too, as most other large A319 operators will be.

I can't see IAG wanting any CS300's, they are in full LCC mode with all their airlines and need to get cost per seat down. Hence BA are shortly starting to phase out A319's in the near future and no replacement order coming in, just for A320/1 neo's. Remaining fleet being densified. Vueling and Iberia will probably go the same way. Level won't need them for obvious reasons.

You may see a few CS100 for BA Cityflyer, but not in the near future. 1 for A318 replacement but can't seeing the LCY-JFK service lasting forever.

Slash787 wrote:

Maybe Iran Air?

possibly, but unlikely since they have already ordered the A320NEO and 737MAX series. Could see other Iranian airlines ordering the Cseries though.

Not sure why my post about SK and LH got deleted but I think SK & LH are both very likely.

worldranger wrote:

But the main reason given for this move was the fear amongst senior Airbus mgt that the Chinese would swoop in and buy the C-Series program and use it as a foundational ground up platform as they embark on competing against A&B.
Smart

I think Boeing and Airbus had the same concern with China, they just chose drastically different approaches. Boeing wanted to kill off the C-Series, while Airbus decided to take it over. (note: the article requires registration, but is free)

http://aviationweek.com/commercial-avia ... bout-china

As for new C-Series orders, I think B6 is the most likely.