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sergegva
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A319neo: will it enter into service or not?

Thu Oct 19, 2017 12:52 pm

After Airbus purchased the CSeries, what shall we expect for the 51 A319neo already ordered? Will they enter into service?

Here is the firm order status for the A319neo:

20x Avianca
18x Frontier
10x Undisclosed (any idee who it is?)
3x Private customers

And the remaining 23 A319ceo not yet delivered:

18x Undisclosed (some of them are those currently delivered to Shenzen Airlines. Per planespotters, 2 of them (MSN 7827 & 7880) are already in production. Why are they still considered as undisclosed ?)
2x B&H Airlines
2x Hamburg International Airlines (!!)
1x Private customer

The only order swapping possibilities from ceo to neo seems to be the private customer (1x) and the remaining Shenzen order (16x?).

Specifications:

Max Pax: both 160 (exit limit).
MTOW/Range: 75.5 t / 6950 km (A319neo), 67.6 t / 6112 km (CS300).

What do you think is going to happen? Is Airbus going to deliver these 51 aircraft and then direct future customers to the CS300, or make all customers swap their order and totally cancel the A319neo?
There is already an A319neo prototype (first flight was in march 2017). What about the second one (MSN 6620, P&W)? Is it already in production or not yet?

Side question n°1, both aircraft have the same exit limit (160 pax). But is it possible to put 160 seats in a CS300? Let's say in an all-Y 3x2 28'' pitch configuration? If not, will current customers agree to swap their order for a smaller aircraft?

Side question n°2, how many A319ceo is waiting Shenzen Airlines? Could they swap them for A319neo or CS300?
 
mwhcvt
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Re: A319neo: will it enter into service or not?

Thu Oct 19, 2017 1:00 pm

Yes it will, mainly as I believe the prototype has already been built/started certification and actually represents very little additional cost to certify it when put against the costs already paid out on the larger sisters in the family
Must think up a new one soon, slow moving brain trying to get into gear ;)
 
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seahawk
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Re: A319neo: will it enter into service or not?

Thu Oct 19, 2017 1:09 pm

There will be customers who want the size and the option to use LD-3/45s.
 
armchairceonr1
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Re: A319neo: will it enter into service or not?

Thu Oct 19, 2017 1:41 pm

If customer have A320s and A321s in their fleet and they need some smaller planes then A319 is still very favourable option. For them 5 CS300 is maybe nogo, but 5 A319s fits very well.
 
Varsity1
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Re: A319neo: will it enter into service or not?

Thu Oct 19, 2017 1:44 pm

ACJ
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Slug71
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Re: A319neo: will it enter into service or not?

Thu Oct 19, 2017 3:05 pm

Yes it will. Prototype is already flying.
 
mat66
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Re: A319neo: will it enter into service or not?

Thu Oct 19, 2017 3:19 pm

Bombardier introduced a 160pax at 28“ Version at request from one potential customer (AirAsia?) some time ago. It has 4 over wing exits in place of 2.

I‘m not even sure A will not sell some more in the coming years. If a rather small A32X airline need some more capacity it makes no sense to introduce e.t. 5 CS300. Airbus will not actively offer them any more.
If I may, isn‘t the exit limit of the A319neo 162? (27:6)
 
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Re: A319neo: will it enter into service or not?

Thu Oct 19, 2017 3:32 pm

sergegva wrote:
There is already an A319neo prototype (first flight was in march 2017). What about the second one (MSN 6620, P&W)? Is it already in production or not yet?

According to this post the plan is now that the CFM test article (MSN6464) will be reengined with Pratt & Whitney engines, rather than a separate airframe serving that purpose:

viewtopic.php?f=3&t=595383&p=19735337#p19735337

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767333ER
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Re: A319neo: will it enter into service or not?

Thu Oct 19, 2017 3:42 pm

seahawk wrote:
There will be customers who want the size and the option to use LD-3/45s.

The A319 can’t take containers. The only thing it’s good for at this point is special performance.
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Polot
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Re: A319neo: will it enter into service or not?

Thu Oct 19, 2017 3:46 pm

767333ER wrote:
seahawk wrote:
There will be customers who want the size and the option to use LD-3/45s.

The A319 can’t take containers. The only thing it’s good for at this point is special performance.

The A319 can take containers (the A318 cannot). Some airlines, like AC, choose not to use containers for their A319s despite using them with the rest of their A32X fleet though.

With the new C Series deal I’m not sure I would hold my breath for PW A319neo certification.
 
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Re: A319neo: will it enter into service or not?

Thu Oct 19, 2017 3:49 pm

767333ER wrote:
seahawk wrote:
There will be customers who want the size and the option to use LD-3/45s.

The A319 can’t take containers. The only thing it’s good for at this point is special performance.


Hahrm.

The A318 can’t take containers. really too short.

You can have AKH on a319, a320, a321.
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SuperSix2
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Re: A319neo: will it enter into service or not?

Thu Oct 19, 2017 4:02 pm

The A319neo was flying this morning....
 
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767333ER
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Re: A319neo: will it enter into service or not?

Thu Oct 19, 2017 4:16 pm

WIederling wrote:
767333ER wrote:
seahawk wrote:
There will be customers who want the size and the option to use LD-3/45s.

The A319 can’t take containers. The only thing it’s good for at this point is special performance.


Hahrm.

The A318 can’t take containers. really too short.

You can have AKH on a319, a320, a321.

My bad there, but even if it can, almost nobody uses them on the A319. The only one I know of is Austrian. Contiainers are better on the A320 and A321neo, but in a plane that size, they really don’t do much.
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CXfirst
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Re: A319neo: will it enter into service or not?

Thu Oct 19, 2017 4:31 pm

767333ER wrote:
My bad there, but even if it can, almost nobody uses them on the A319. The only one I know of is Austrian. Contiainers are better on the A320 and A321neo, but in a plane that size, they really don’t do much.


I'm fairly sure BA use containers for their A319s. Sure more do as well, especially if they use containerised A320s and A321s.
 
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BobMUC
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Re: A319neo: will it enter into service or not?

Thu Oct 19, 2017 4:37 pm

I'm pretty sure LH is using containers on their A319s.
 
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Re: A319neo: will it enter into service or not?

Thu Oct 19, 2017 4:39 pm

767333ER wrote:
seahawk wrote:
There will be customers who want the size and the option to use LD-3/45s.

The A319 can’t take containers. The only thing it’s good for at this point is special performance.

If they can find a set that work, lol.

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Re: A319neo: will it enter into service or not?

Thu Oct 19, 2017 4:48 pm

I'm not even sure the A319neo's "special performance" is even that special. The C series also has fantastic performance. As armchairceonr1 mentioned the A319neo will really only appeal to A320 operators who only need a small fleet in this size, too small to justify adding a new type like the C series.
 
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CarlosSi
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Re: A319neo: will it enter into service or not?

Thu Oct 19, 2017 5:07 pm

Aside from the fact that it’s already flying, Airbus stayed earlier they’ll be pushing the CS “ahead of their a319”, so it looks like they’re more invested on the CS than their own design.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... sales-push
 
armchairceonr1
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Re: A319neo: will it enter into service or not?

Thu Oct 19, 2017 5:29 pm

CarlosSi wrote:
Aside from the fact that it’s already flying, Airbus stayed earlier they’ll be pushing the CS “ahead of their a319”, so it looks like they’re more invested on the CS than their own design.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... sales-push

At this point I would look this more like marketing speech. The deal is not ready yet and there is not going to be any commonality between CS and A32X in foreseeable future. Airbus will sell A319 very actively, if their customers want it. They are not going to turn their customers to Boeings hand, if they want A319 size plane, which is same family with bigger ones.
 
ytz
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Re: A319neo: will it enter into service or not?

Thu Oct 19, 2017 5:41 pm

Dunno about the others, but I think Avianca will go CSeries.

They have 15 319s, 10 318s and 12 E190s. And they have a deal for 20 319NEOs. This is an opportunity for Airbus. Offer them 20 CS100 and 20 CS300 (converted from 20 319NEO). Avianca gains by getting much more optimized aircraft, no change in the number of types, and still a much larger commonality pool for its low end fleet.
 
armchairceonr1
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Re: A319neo: will it enter into service or not?

Thu Oct 19, 2017 5:52 pm

ytz wrote:
Dunno about the others, but I think Avianca will go CSeries.

They have 15 319s, 10 318s and 12 E190s. And they have a deal for 20 319NEOs. This is an opportunity for Airbus. Offer them 20 CS100 and 20 CS300 (converted from 20 319NEO). Avianca gains by getting much more optimized aircraft, no change in the number of types, and still a much larger commonality pool for its low end fleet.

Why? Aviancas A319s are very young and they have also 41 A320s, age around 5 years(+10 321s). Their A318 are much older and propably going out when A319neos come in. Not any idea for Avianca or neither Airbus.
 
afgeneral
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Re: A319neo: will it enter into service or not?

Thu Oct 19, 2017 6:17 pm

the A319 and CS can coexist, just because Airbus will start pushing the CS more than the A319 does not mean they should discontinue the product alltogether

they will likely split the narrow body offering into two sub-sectors so if an airline mainly flies A321 and they want a smaller plane they might not want a completely new type and instead still go for A319

similarly, a hypothetical CS500 would be suited for airlines who mainly want to fly CS100 and CS300 and they want something bigger as well, not worth introducing an A32X series for a small sub-fleet

this way the CS and A32X can coexist despite the overlap in capacity (even the CS500)

Airbus won't kill the A319, it will suffer a natural death due to lack of orders
 
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Re: A319neo: will it enter into service or not?

Thu Oct 19, 2017 6:23 pm

U2 has 254 aircraft split roughly 50/50 A319/A320.

Expect that they will not be happy about having a split A320/CS fleet.

Given they were previously Boeing customers, there views may carry more weight.
 
ytz
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Re: A319neo: will it enter into service or not?

Thu Oct 19, 2017 6:30 pm

bennett123 wrote:
U2 has 254 aircraft split roughly 50/50 A319/A320.

Expect that they will not be happy about having a split A320/CS fleet.

Given they were previously Boeing customers, there views may carry more weight.


Or at some point in the future, U2 talks to Airbus about a CS300/CS500 fleet. Airbus will build what its customers want. They'll give them 319NEOs if that's what they want. And I suspect if there's enough demand, they'll build the CS500 too.
 
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Re: A319neo: will it enter into service or not?

Thu Oct 19, 2017 6:31 pm

bennett123 wrote:
And I suspect if there's enough demand, they'll build the CS500 too.


I would love to see that happen
 
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Re: A319neo: will it enter into service or not?

Thu Oct 19, 2017 6:31 pm

Already A319neo is under-selling on the hopes of CS300 entering service, now CS300 is a reality and is under the wings of Airbus then it makes sense for Airbus to deliver what it has in its order books before shifting its customers’ line of sight for future demand to CS300. That should recoup some A319neo certification & development costs; besides who knows some parts of upcoming production A319’s could be in the supply chain pipe now. No shame in that, Airbus got the hit from the A318 once before.
 
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Re: A319neo: will it enter into service or not?

Thu Oct 19, 2017 6:46 pm

armchairceonr1 wrote:
ytz wrote:
Dunno about the others, but I think Avianca will go CSeries.

They have 15 319s, 10 318s and 12 E190s. And they have a deal for 20 319NEOs. This is an opportunity for Airbus. Offer them 20 CS100 and 20 CS300 (converted from 20 319NEO). Avianca gains by getting much more optimized aircraft, no change in the number of types, and still a much larger commonality pool for its low end fleet.

Why? Aviancas A319s are very young and they have also 41 A320s, age around 5 years(+10 321s). Their A318 are much older and propably going out when A319neos come in. Not any idea for Avianca or neither Airbus.


And yet, despite those 319s being young Avianca has an order for 20 319NEOs. This is a clear cut opportunity here. Airbus gets to double the number of airplanes sold by offering them 40 CSeries to consolidate some of their fleet. And the profits should work out the same for Airbus as selling 20 319NEOs. That sales pitch even makes sense if AV bought the 319NEOs for growth.
 
armchairceonr1
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Re: A319neo: will it enter into service or not?

Thu Oct 19, 2017 6:59 pm

ytz wrote:
And yet, despite those 319s being young Avianca has an order for 20 319NEOs. This is a clear cut opportunity here. Airbus gets to double the number of airplanes sold by offering them 40 CSeries to consolidate some of their fleet. And the profits should work out the same for Airbus as selling 20 319NEOs. That sales pitch even makes sense if AV bought the 319NEOs for growth.

I think Airbus is more worried about how many orders Avianca delay further, than plan to sell more planes for them. Avianca ordered 100 Neos 2015, and delayed orders year later. There is plenty of room for growth.
 
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Re: A319neo: will it enter into service or not?

Thu Oct 19, 2017 7:11 pm

Well also wouldn't it depend on the purpose for ordering the A319? It does have more range than the CS-130.
 
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Re: A319neo: will it enter into service or not?

Thu Oct 19, 2017 7:32 pm

bennett123 wrote:
U2 has 254 aircraft split roughly 50/50 A319/A320.

Expect that they will not be happy about having a split A320/CS fleet.

Given they were previously Boeing customers, there views may carry more weight.


Just because you currently have a fleet, does not mean you want to keep that fleet. U2 could easily go A320/A321, which is much more likely than them buying another A319.
 
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Re: A319neo: will it enter into service or not?

Thu Oct 19, 2017 7:49 pm

ytz wrote:
armchairceonr1 wrote:
ytz wrote:
Dunno about the others, but I think Avianca will go CSeries.

They have 15 319s, 10 318s and 12 E190s. And they have a deal for 20 319NEOs. This is an opportunity for Airbus. Offer them 20 CS100 and 20 CS300 (converted from 20 319NEO). Avianca gains by getting much more optimized aircraft, no change in the number of types, and still a much larger commonality pool for its low end fleet.

Why? Aviancas A319s are very young and they have also 41 A320s, age around 5 years(+10 321s). Their A318 are much older and propably going out when A319neos come in. Not any idea for Avianca or neither Airbus.


And yet, despite those 319s being young Avianca has an order for 20 319NEOs. This is a clear cut opportunity here. Airbus gets to double the number of airplanes sold by offering them 40 CSeries to consolidate some of their fleet. And the profits should work out the same for Airbus as selling 20 319NEOs. That sales pitch even makes sense if AV bought the 319NEOs for growth.


With the 319s being young, perhaps the NEOs are intended to replace 318s and E190s. Maybe they've decided that the 190s economics as a small fleet and the 318s as a heavy airframe both stink, so they'll just upsize with the 319NEO to replace both. 20 frames is a lot cheaper than 40 and consolidates their narrow body jet fleet around one type while eliminating what are likely their least efficient aircraft.
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Re: A319neo: will it enter into service or not?

Thu Oct 19, 2017 7:56 pm

767333ER wrote:
The only thing it’s good for at this point is special performance.


Polot wrote:
I'm not even sure the A319neo's "special performance" is even that special. The C series also has fantastic performance. As armchairceonr1 mentioned the A319neo will really only appeal to A320 operators who only need a small fleet in this size, too small to justify adding a new type like the C series.


True.

Airbus offers a short-field mod for A320neo, making the A319neo performance redundant.
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Jayafe
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Re: A319neo: will it enter into service or not?

Thu Oct 19, 2017 8:12 pm

KarelXWB wrote:
Airbus offers a short-field mod for A320neo, making the A319neo performance redundant.


Has IAG shown interest for that variant? Thinking of IB A319s replacement (+50% around 10 years now)...
 
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Polot
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Re: A319neo: will it enter into service or not?

Thu Oct 19, 2017 8:22 pm

Jayafe wrote:
KarelXWB wrote:
Airbus offers a short-field mod for A320neo, making the A319neo performance redundant.


Has IAG shown interest for that variant? Thinking of IB A319s replacement (+50% around 10 years now)...

Does IB really need significant short field performance for their routes? (legitimately asking)
 
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Re: A319neo: will it enter into service or not?

Thu Oct 19, 2017 8:28 pm

bennett123 wrote:
U2 has 254 aircraft split roughly 50/50 A319/A320.

Expect that they will not be happy about having a split A320/CS fleet.

Given they were previously Boeing customers, there views may carry more weight.


I don't think the fact they they were once a Boeing customer will hold much weight, more the fact that they're a huge Airbus customer.

I don't think U2 will order the A319neo, it seems like they're happy to be upsizing aircraft, so A320neos will replace A319s and A321neos will be introduced. If they want the CSeries then they can probably get it without too much difficulty.
 
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Re: A319neo: will it enter into service or not?

Thu Oct 19, 2017 8:30 pm

KarelXWB wrote:
Airbus offers a short-field mod for A320neo, making the A319neo performance redundant.


I don't think it's "redundant" to an airline that wants to fly thinner routes, routes where they might have a bit of trouble filling the A320 or might have to discount more seats than they'd like.

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WIederling
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Re: A319neo: will it enter into service or not?

Thu Oct 19, 2017 9:11 pm

CarlosSi wrote:
Aside from the fact that it’s already flying, Airbus stayed earlier they’ll be pushing the CS “ahead of their a319”, so it looks like they’re more invested on the CS than their own design.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... sales-push


Why should Airbus try to sell the A319 over their new toy CSeries?

They are sold out on A321 and A320 slots for years to come. Even in scope of increasing production well into the 60++/m region.
A319 is minimally cheaper to produce for a significantly lower price tag.

Pushing CSeries frames instead makes all sense in the world.
Especially when it is the better fitting product for customers.
A pretty nice product for the slot and production capacity can be made available in an interesting way.

Making your customers buy old sh*t "just because" leaves a bad taste.
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WIederling
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Re: A319neo: will it enter into service or not?

Thu Oct 19, 2017 9:16 pm

KarelXWB wrote:
Airbus offers a short-field mod for A320neo, making the A319neo performance redundant.


IMU the SHARP package is available for the family?
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Re: A319neo: will it enter into service or not?

Thu Oct 19, 2017 9:33 pm

A319 vs CS300 orders may hinge on delivery schedules. How long would it take a carrier ordering now to receive their 100 A319s compared to how long it would take for Bombardier to deliver 100 CS300? I'm thinking if you need to replace and update a whole fleet in a timely fashion, odds are on the 319s arriving sooner.

Is Airbus acquiring control of the CS project an effort to eliminate the completion?
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Re: A319neo: will it enter into service or not?

Thu Oct 19, 2017 9:44 pm

The A319 NEO did its test flight today in addition with the A330 NEO. It was on FR24.

Let's look at it from this perspective. Parts on the 319, 320, and 321 go together making maintenance much easier for certain airlines. That's why some airlines only want one a/c type.
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CHI2DFW
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Re: A319neo: will it enter into service or not?

Thu Oct 19, 2017 9:51 pm

I thought AV was waiting for the 319neo to start ORD. This could also go to BOS (not sure if it’s weight restricted now).
 
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aemoreira1981
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Re: A319neo: will it enter into service or not?

Thu Oct 19, 2017 11:45 pm

AV may need the A319neo for range over capacity. I see them sticking with the A319s, as older A319s would be shifted to where the A318 flies now. Also, I doubt that the A320neo will be offered as the business jet replacement for the A319CJ.
 
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Re: A319neo: will it enter into service or not?

Thu Oct 19, 2017 11:52 pm

Varsity1 wrote:
ACJ

There are a total of 4 ACJs in the backlog. Why do people consider this viable when customers must order 3+ years before delivery? An ACJ must be delivered to a cabin outfitter about a year before the customer.

Please search for GAMA Aviation production summary. You will see how few ACJs and BBJs are delivered every year.

With the SHARP shorfield kit and longer range the A320NEOACJ (vs. A319CEO ACJ), I doubt a dozen A319NEOACJs will be delivered.

You do realize a lighter business jet such as the upcoming G600 or Falcon 8X/5X will be able to land at over twice as many airfields and for most missions will fly faster for a lot less money?
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ytz
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Re: A319neo: will it enter into service or not?

Thu Oct 19, 2017 11:53 pm

aemoreira1981 wrote:
AV may need the A319neo for range over capacity. I see them sticking with the A319s, as older A319s would be shifted to where the A318 flies now. Also, I doubt that the A320neo will be offered as the business jet replacement for the A319CJ.


How is range an issue with the CSeries?

http://www.gcmap.com/mapui?DU=mi&P=ord, ... 00nm%40bog

They may pick the 319NEO for many reasons. But I doubt range is one of them. And that's a map for the CS100 with 3100nm. The CS300 does 200nm more.
Last edited by ytz on Thu Oct 19, 2017 11:55 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
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Re: A319neo: will it enter into service or not?

Thu Oct 19, 2017 11:56 pm

ytz wrote:
aemoreira1981 wrote:
AV may need the A319neo for range over capacity. I see them sticking with the A319s, as older A319s would be shifted to where the A318 flies now. Also, I doubt that the A320neo will be offered as the business jet replacement for the A319CJ.


How is range an issue with the CSeries?

http://www.gcmap.com/mapui?DU=mi&P=ord, ... 00nm%40bog

They may pick the 319NEO for many reasons. But I doubt range is one of them. And that's a map for the CS100 with 3100nm. The CS300 does 200nm more.


BOG is a hot and high airport (8400 feet above sea level) which could impact that range.
 
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Re: A319neo: will it enter into service or not?

Fri Oct 20, 2017 12:00 am

aemoreira1981 wrote:
AV may need the A319neo for range over capacity. I see them sticking with the A319s, as older A319s would be shifted to where the A318 flies now. Also, I doubt that the A320neo will be offered as the business jet replacement for the A319CJ.


Sorry, http://www.aircraft.airbus.com/aircraft ... ly/acjneo/
The airplane for the 0.00001%

But range could very well be an issue for AV. A really rare case.
 
AtomicGarden
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Re: A319neo: will it enter into service or not?

Fri Oct 20, 2017 12:11 am

If Airbus is actually building the A338neo, why not keep the orders if the customer wants it?
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ytz
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Re: A319neo: will it enter into service or not?

Fri Oct 20, 2017 12:11 am

aemoreira1981 wrote:
ytz wrote:
aemoreira1981 wrote:
AV may need the A319neo for range over capacity. I see them sticking with the A319s, as older A319s would be shifted to where the A318 flies now. Also, I doubt that the A320neo will be offered as the business jet replacement for the A319CJ.


How is range an issue with the CSeries?

http://www.gcmap.com/mapui?DU=mi&P=ord, ... 00nm%40bog

They may pick the 319NEO for many reasons. But I doubt range is one of them. And that's a map for the CS100 with 3100nm. The CS300 does 200nm more.


BOG is a hot and high airport (8400 feet above sea level) which could impact that range.


And? That still doesn't favour the 319NEO.
 
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lightsaber
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Re: A319neo: will it enter into service or not?

Fri Oct 20, 2017 12:37 am

Link to 2016 business jet deliveries. Not many ACJ:
https://gama.aero/wp-content/uploads/20 ... forWeb.pdf
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767333ER
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Re: A319neo: will it enter into service or not?

Fri Oct 20, 2017 5:58 am

zackary747 wrote:
The A319 NEO did its test flight today in addition with the A330 NEO. It was on FR24.

Let's look at it from this perspective. Parts on the 319, 320, and 321 go together making maintenance much easier for certain airlines. That's why some airlines only want one a/c type.

Getting their hands on the A319neo in the first place is tricky though as nearly no one is willing to lease the thing or finace it knowing it will fare similar to the 737-600 or A318 on the used market. In other words the A319neo is expected to be a relatively inefficient money loser. It may have commonality but that’s it and that only matters so much. That’s why it has sold so poorly.
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