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Midwestindy
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Southwest Schedule Extension 11/02/17

Thu Oct 19, 2017 7:39 pm

On November 2, 2017 Southwest will open their schedule for sale through August 6, 2018. Since their last extension, WN has made a few tweaks, and pushed this extension back a week.

What new developments/routes should we expect?

For reference, here are the top 50 WN markets for Q2 of 2017, so you can see where they are currently growing or shrinking...
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... edit#gid=0
ORD & IND

AA & DL
 
aviationjunky
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Re: Southwest Schedule Extension 11/02/17

Thu Oct 19, 2017 7:51 pm

HAWAII!
LAS is Life
 
WN732
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Re: Southwest Schedule Extension 11/02/17

Thu Oct 19, 2017 7:53 pm

It's good to see that places like ONT and ELP which have in the past received cuts and declined in pax, have continued to grow.
 
jplatts
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Re: Southwest Schedule Extension 11/02/17

Thu Oct 19, 2017 8:39 pm

There was an article published in the Dallas Business Journal last month titled "Exclusive: Southwest Airlines seeking to expand dominance at Dallas Love Field", which can be found at https://www.bizjournals.com/dallas/news/2017/09/06/exclusive-southwest-airlines-seeking-to-expand.html and which was discussed at https://www.airliners.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1373105. It appears to me that Southwest might be wanting to add nonstop service from DAL to additional destinations that currently do not have nonstop service out of DAL.

Even though MSP is not currently served nonstop from DAL, both Southwest and Delta have previously considered serving MSP nonstop from DAL. Southwest could possibly add nonstop service from DAL to MSP since MSP is the #1 destination from DAL that does not currently have nonstop service out of DAL and since Southwest has considered serving MSP nonstop from DAL in the past.

Other destinations not currently served nonstop from DAL that Southwest could possibly add nonstop service to out of DAL include CLE, CVG, SDF, TUS, IAD, and EWR.

Will Southwest be announcing new nonstop service out of DAL on 11/2? It appears to me that Southwest might possibly be announcing nonstop service from DAL to additional destinations that are not currently served nonstop from DAL on 11/2.
Last edited by jplatts on Thu Oct 19, 2017 8:42 pm, edited 2 times in total.
 
jplatts
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Re: Southwest Schedule Extension 11/02/17

Thu Oct 19, 2017 8:41 pm

WN732 wrote:
It's good to see that places like ONT and ELP which have in the past received cuts and declined in pax, have continued to grow.


Southwest actually added nonstop service from ONT to DAL back on January 15th.
 
allegiantflyer
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Re: Southwest Schedule Extension 11/02/17

Thu Oct 19, 2017 8:43 pm

SNA will be a very interesting development to see in this extension
 
ADrum23
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Re: Southwest Schedule Extension 11/02/17

Thu Oct 19, 2017 9:58 pm

1. Obviously, I'd like to see new routes out of BNA, with my top three wishes being (in no particular order) BNA-SJC, BNA-PDX and BNA-IND.

2. I'd also like to see some new destinations out of CVG, such as DEN, HOU, DAL, STL, FLL, etc.

3. I doubt it, but maybe we finally get some specific routes for the new Hawaii service in this extension?
 
whatusaid
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Re: Southwest Schedule Extension 11/02/17

Thu Oct 19, 2017 10:16 pm

Are we ready for the latest rumors on FAT? The airport's draft master plan recently unveiled references a new entry, with 2X DEN, 3X LAS, and 3X PHX. One can hope. But, then again, why get one's hopes up?
 
Wingtips56
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Re: Southwest Schedule Extension 11/02/17

Thu Oct 19, 2017 10:17 pm

whatusaid wrote:
Are we ready for the latest rumors on FAT? The airport's draft master plan recently unveiled references a new entry, with 2X DEN, 3X LAS, and 3X PHX. One can hope. But, then again, why get one's hopes up?

I can't think of who else it might be if not WN.
Worked for WestAir, Apollo Airways, Desert Pacific, Western, AirCal and American Airlines (Retired). Flight Memory: 181 airports, 92 airlines, 78 a/c types, 403 routes, 58 countries (by air), 6 continents. 1,119,414 passenger miles.

Home airport : CEC
 
nine4nine
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Re: Southwest Schedule Extension 11/02/17

Thu Oct 19, 2017 10:34 pm

allegiantflyer wrote:
SNA will be a very interesting development to see in this extension



Yea curious to see this. SNA is a hard airport to have a consistent business op due to annual slot allocations.

Will this schedule show the Hawaii expansion or will that be on the next schedule release following this one?

Any guesses on which CA cities will be getting Hawaii service? I'm guessing SAN, LAX, BUR, SJC, and OAK.
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WN732
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Re: Southwest Schedule Extension 11/02/17

Thu Oct 19, 2017 10:43 pm

whatusaid wrote:
Are we ready for the latest rumors on FAT? The airport's draft master plan recently unveiled references a new entry, with 2X DEN, 3X LAS, and 3X PHX. One can hope. But, then again, why get one's hopes up?


Source?
 
bob75013
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Re: Southwest Schedule Extension 11/02/17

Thu Oct 19, 2017 11:02 pm

jplatts wrote:
Will Southwest be announcing new nonstop service out of DAL on 11/2? It appears to me that Southwest might possibly be announcing nonstop service from DAL to additional destinations that are not currently served nonstop from DAL on 11/2.


Well, since WN is gate limited at KDAL, it'll have to cut something to add new service. It's already cut boatloads of service to bunches of places to account for nationwide service at the airport. Load factors are already high at KDAL, so I would be surprised to see WN cutting very much to open up new nonstop service.

As I've said before, WN needs to get some Max10s and substitute them for a few 800's, reducing frequencies a bit, but not seat count. That would allow WN to add new nonstop service.
 
whatusaid
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Re: Southwest Schedule Extension 11/02/17

Thu Oct 19, 2017 11:13 pm

WN732 wrote:
whatusaid wrote:
Are we ready for the latest rumors on FAT? The airport's draft master plan recently unveiled references a new entry, with 2X DEN, 3X LAS, and 3X PHX. One can hope. But, then again, why get one's hopes up?


Source?


http://www.fresnoairportsmasterplan.com ... 3_9-17.pdf
 
WN732
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Re: Southwest Schedule Extension 11/02/17

Thu Oct 19, 2017 11:19 pm

whatusaid wrote:
WN732 wrote:
whatusaid wrote:
Are we ready for the latest rumors on FAT? The airport's draft master plan recently unveiled references a new entry, with 2X DEN, 3X LAS, and 3X PHX. One can hope. But, then again, why get one's hopes up?


Source?


http://www.fresnoairportsmasterplan.com ... 3_9-17.pdf


Nice. Funny how they also noted it was specifically a 737.
 
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Midwestindy
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Re: Southwest Schedule Extension 11/02/17

Thu Oct 19, 2017 11:25 pm

Personally I would like to see
IND-SAT, IND-AUS (year-round), IND-SAN (see it come back), IND-MSY(year-round), IND-PDX or SEA, CMH-SAN/LAX (both year-round), more West Coast-Midwest routes

Long shots:
IND-OAK/MSP/BNA/STL, CVG-DEN
ORD & IND

AA & DL
 
SurfandSnow
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Re: Southwest Schedule Extension 11/02/17

Thu Oct 19, 2017 11:28 pm

Thanks for the top 50 list Midwestindy! I am shocked by the continued lack of international services from LAS and PHX. These are now *by far* the largest hubs (or whatever WN wants to call them) without such flights. Keep in mind that WN is legally forbidden from offering any nonstop international services at DAL per the Wright Amendment settlement agreement. MCI is the next largest station that continues to cater exclusively to domestic flights, but WN has publicly expressed its displeasure with the current facility and probably won't add any new service there unless a new terminal is built (http://www.kansascity.com/news/politics ... 21881.html). You have to go all the way down the list to SFO, DCA and BUR until you find WN stations that still haven't received some sort of international service - and even then, WN does offer international flights from other airports in each of those metropolitan areas. I realize there doesn't seem to be much of a market for service between LAS and the Mexican beaches, but I am very surprised by the lack of PHX-Mexico...
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ADrum23
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Re: Southwest Schedule Extension 11/02/17

Thu Oct 19, 2017 11:40 pm

Midwestindy wrote:
Personally I would like to see
IND-SAT, IND-AUS (year-round), IND-SAN (see it come back), IND-MSY(year-round), IND-PDX or SEA, CMH-SAN/LAX (both year-round), more West Coast-Midwest routes

Long shots:
IND-OAK/MSP/BNA/STL, CVG-DEN


I wouldn't call IND-BNA a long shot. At the announcement of BNA-MKE and BNA-CUN, the Southwest spokesman said it is a high in demand route (along with ATL). I could see it happening within the next year, BNA-MSP started in June of this year, so BNA-IND could happen around that same time in 2018. Also, CVG-DEN is not a long-shot at all, it may be the most likely destination WN will launch next out of CVG, and I anticipate we will be seeing WN significantly expand at CVG in the coming years.

I agree about IND-SAT, that is overdue. IND-SEA and/or PDX would likely only be seasonal (not even ATL has year-round SEA flights on WN).
 
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ERJ170
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Re: Southwest Schedule Extension 11/02/17

Fri Oct 20, 2017 12:46 am

I’d like to see ANYTHING new out of RDU... ANYTHING..
Aiming High and going far..
 
WNflyer1523
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Re: Southwest Schedule Extension 11/02/17

Fri Oct 20, 2017 12:59 am

MHT, PWM, RIC, and ISP likely have a good chance of getting cut. If Southwest doesn't leave those airports (which I'd be very surprised if they didn't) then likely a huge decrease in service. (Both RIC and PWM already have only like 2-4 daily flights.)
 
WaywardMemphian
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Re: Southwest Schedule Extension 11/02/17

Fri Oct 20, 2017 1:10 am

I don't know if Southwest adds much in MEM with it AND Delta jammed together in A concourse while B concourse goes under the knife but MEM/DEN wouldn't be a shock.
 
jplatts
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Re: Southwest Schedule Extension 11/02/17

Fri Oct 20, 2017 1:19 am

bob75013 wrote:
jplatts wrote:
Will Southwest be announcing new nonstop service out of DAL on 11/2? It appears to me that Southwest might possibly be announcing nonstop service from DAL to additional destinations that are not currently served nonstop from DAL on 11/2.


Well, since WN is gate limited at KDAL, it'll have to cut something to add new service. It's already cut boatloads of service to bunches of places to account for nationwide service at the airport. Load factors are already high at KDAL, so I would be surprised to see WN cutting very much to open up new nonstop service.

As I've said before, WN needs to get some Max10s and substitute them for a few 800's, reducing frequencies a bit, but not seat count. That would allow WN to add new nonstop service.


Southwest actually currently does more flights per gate per day out of 11 gates in Terminal 1 at LAX than it does out of the 17 gates at DAL that it does not currently share with other airlines, and Southwest had until recently even done as many as 13 or 14 flights per gate per day out of 10 gates at Terminal 1 at LAX while Terminal 1 was being renovated at LAX. Southwest has managed to squeeze in more flights per gate per day at LAX while Terminal 1 renovations are in progress at LAX, and Southwest actually did its LAX operation under constraints that it doesn't face at DAL, including construction in connection with LAX Terminal 1 renovations and limited room to pull out of its gates in Terminal 1 at LAX. Southwest actually even did some of these flights out of LAX on 737-800 planes when it was squeezing in 13 or 14 flights a day out of some of its gates at LAX.

I do know that Southwest is gate limited at DAL and I do know that Southwest does have limited room to further expand at DAL, but Southwest might possibly be able to squeeze in a few additional flights at DAL, and there are a few gates at DAL used only by Southwest Airlines that only see 9 flights per gate per day.
 
wnflyguy
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Re: Southwest Schedule Extension 11/02/17

Fri Oct 20, 2017 1:32 am

whatusaid wrote:
Are we ready for the latest rumors on FAT? The airport's draft master plan recently unveiled references a new entry, with 2X DEN, 3X LAS, and 3X PHX. One can hope. But, then again, why get one's hopes up?


Hearing the lost of 10 slots and short hop aircraft time from SNA west coast markets being used to FATen up the California Strong battle against AS.
Yes Rumors have FAT being added to the WN network In MAY/2018.

Hawaii service will not be announced with this release.
Rumors have WN hosting it's annual Media Day/2018/19 outlook in HNL.

Some normal spring/summer seasonal shifts and returning service.

Because of the wake from the Hurricane SJU might not see it's usual peak season build ups .
I wouldn't even be surprised if the 2018 summer season get scaled back to just 2 FLL, 2 MCO, 1 TPA and 1 BWI.

Flyguy
Last edited by wnflyguy on Fri Oct 20, 2017 1:36 am, edited 2 times in total.
My Wings are clipped just another Retired Airline person. The Ultimate Armchair out of the loop airline industry geek. Aloha Mr Hand!
 
cledaybuck
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Re: Southwest Schedule Extension 11/02/17

Fri Oct 20, 2017 1:33 am

WNflyer1523 wrote:
MHT, PWM, RIC, and ISP likely have a good chance of getting cut. If Southwest doesn't leave those airports (which I'd be very surprised if they didn't) then likely a huge decrease in service. (Both RIC and PWM already have only like 2-4 daily flights.)
I am going to say none of these will be cut and service levels will remain more or less status quo.
As we celebrate mediocrity, all the boys upstairs want to see, how much you'll pay for what you used to get for free.
 
wnflyguy
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Re: Southwest Schedule Extension 11/02/17

Fri Oct 20, 2017 1:45 am

WNflyer1523 wrote:
MHT, PWM, RIC, and ISP likely have a good chance of getting cut. If Southwest doesn't leave those airports (which I'd be very surprised if they didn't) then likely a huge decrease in service. (Both RIC and PWM already have only like 2-4 daily flights.)


If FNT,DSM,PNS and GSP didn't go away with the shortage of aircraft with the 737-300 retirements I'm going to say ALL THE CITIES you mentioned are NOT going anywhere.
They could even possibly see a return of growth in the future.

Flyguy
My Wings are clipped just another Retired Airline person. The Ultimate Armchair out of the loop airline industry geek. Aloha Mr Hand!
 
cvgComair
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Re: Southwest Schedule Extension 11/02/17

Fri Oct 20, 2017 1:47 am

ADrum23 wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:
Personally I would like to see
IND-SAT, IND-AUS (year-round), IND-SAN (see it come back), IND-MSY(year-round), IND-PDX or SEA, CMH-SAN/LAX (both year-round), more West Coast-Midwest routes

Long shots:
IND-OAK/MSP/BNA/STL, CVG-DEN

Also, CVG-DEN is not a long-shot at all, it may be the most likely destination WN will launch next out of CVG, and I anticipate we will be seeing WN significantly expand at CVG in the coming years.

I think anything from CVG is a long shot for this schedule extension. I still think its going to take 1-2 more before CVG sees new routes, but I would love to be surprised!
 
msycajun
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Re: Southwest Schedule Extension 11/02/17

Fri Oct 20, 2017 1:49 am

I'd like to see some of the one weekly routes from MSY go daily. RDU, PIT, and IND have been doing well so far. Maybe more frequency on CUN as well.
 
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SteveXC500
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Re: Southwest Schedule Extension 11/02/17

Fri Oct 20, 2017 1:58 am

Thanks for the Top 50 list. Sad to see my MSP so low though. Likely to see a continuation of the standard schedule of roughly 23-25 daily departures. I guess we could possibly see MSP-LAS go more than Saturday-only. More aircraft joining the fleet replacing 733’s?
 
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SANFan
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Re: Southwest Schedule Extension 11/02/17

Fri Oct 20, 2017 2:29 am

whatusaid wrote:
Are we ready for the latest rumors on FAT? The airport's draft master plan recently unveiled references a new entry, with 2X DEN, 3X LAS, and 3X PHX. One can hope. But, then again, why get one's hopes up?

Sure sounds like WN to me! I guess the only question is: what kind of time frame is FAT looking at? Could it happen as soon as next June?

Please keep us posted, what', on your end of upcoming news from Fresno.

I personally think anything is possible on this next schedule from WN (except Hawaii -- too soon.) Let the usual rumors continue but it will definitely be interesting to see what does unfold on Nov 2; being the peak travel season's schedule, it should have lots of goodies!

For San Diego, I hope to see the 'seasonal' IND & GEG routes return (and expect they will.) ELP service increasing from once-weekly? The big unknown is MKE -- does the route exist or not? And I wouldn't be surprised to see at least one new route show up in next summer's SAN-schedule.

bb
 
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Midwestindy
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Re: Southwest Schedule Extension 11/02/17

Fri Oct 20, 2017 2:35 am

ADrum23 wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:
Personally I would like to see
IND-SAT, IND-AUS (year-round), IND-SAN (see it come back), IND-MSY(year-round), IND-PDX or SEA, CMH-SAN/LAX (both year-round), more West Coast-Midwest routes

Long shots:
IND-OAK/MSP/BNA/STL, CVG-DEN


I wouldn't call IND-BNA a long shot. At the announcement of BNA-MKE and BNA-CUN, the Southwest spokesman said it is a high in demand route (along with ATL). I could see it happening within the next year, BNA-MSP started in June of this year, so BNA-IND could happen around that same time in 2018. Also, CVG-DEN is not a long-shot at all, it may be the most likely destination WN will launch next out of CVG, and I anticipate we will be seeing WN significantly expand at CVG in the coming years.

I agree about IND-SAT, that is overdue. IND-SEA and/or PDX would likely only be seasonal (not even ATL has year-round SEA flights on WN).


I was referring to the likelyhood of each getting announced during this specific extension. For example, CVG-DEN isn't a long-shot in general but WN has said they were going to wait a few more months before they announce anything new from CVG, so therefore it is unlikely it will be announced in this extension....

I'd love to see IND-BNA, but the more I think about it, the more I think it could hurt the IND-ATL flight. Same thing for what a IND-STL flight would likely do to the current IND-MDW flight...

I agree SEA would likely be seasonal, although I doubt IND-PDX seasonal would happen anytime soon...
ORD & IND

AA & DL
 
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chrisnh
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Re: Southwest Schedule Extension 11/02/17

Fri Oct 20, 2017 2:59 am

Every time these schedule extensions roll around we’re told to brace for carnage. But when it happens we all have a good laugh at the doomsayers until the whole cycle repeats.
 
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stl07
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Re: Southwest Schedule Extension 11/02/17

Fri Oct 20, 2017 3:09 am

chrisnh wrote:
Every time these schedule extensions roll around we’re told to brace for carnage. But when it happens we all have a good laugh at the doomsayers until the whole cycle repeats.

Haha yea for route suggestions I was almost tempted to just write "see last extension discussion"
Instead of typing in "mods", consider using the report function.
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FA9295
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Re: Southwest Schedule Extension 11/02/17

Fri Oct 20, 2017 3:34 am

During the last schedule update for WN, I saw 2 daily flights for PDX/SEA to RNO and PDX/SEA to SLC during a WN schedule update, but those routes were removed later on. Kind of weird...
 
DeltaRules
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Re: Southwest Schedule Extension 11/02/17

Fri Oct 20, 2017 3:40 am

Let's go CMH-HOU and MSY year-round and add CMH-SAN and maybe MCI in some capacity. CMH-SEA feels like asking too much.
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Jshank83
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Re: Southwest Schedule Extension 11/02/17

Fri Oct 20, 2017 4:01 am

I still am surprised no one has added BNA-PDX. Maybe this is when it finally gets added seasonal?

The FAT talk sounds a lot like WN. All those destinations are WN "hubs". But they usually don't announce new stations on extension day so it will be interesting to see if we hear anything in the next week or so.

I think STL will get more but I really don't know what. No holes really stand out. I figure they didn't add a bunch of new gates for nothing though.

Options for STL (I am sure they won't all happen but at this point I am throwing darts)
CHS/PNS-STL I assume with be back seasonally.
STL-JAX seasonal?
Would they add international in June?
Some spoke routes might be an option, MEM/CVG?
STL has a big bank that leaves for the west coast at 2 so some places east could feed it. IND/CVG-STL-west coast might make sense.
I can't see anything else west getting added after SMF/SJC got added on the last extension.
I would also like to see PIT go 2x daily.

Like I said, I think something gets added I just can't pinpoint anything.

How many more planes will they have coming online next spring going into this extension?
 
jplatts
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Re: Southwest Schedule Extension 11/02/17

Fri Oct 20, 2017 12:28 pm

Jshank83 wrote:
I think STL will get more but I really don't know what. No holes really stand out. I figure they didn't add a bunch of new gates for nothing though.

Options for STL (I am sure they won't all happen but at this point I am throwing darts)
CHS/PNS-STL I assume with be back seasonally.
STL-JAX seasonal?
Would they add international in June?
Some spoke routes might be an option, MEM/CVG?
STL has a big bank that leaves for the west coast at 2 so some places east could feed it. IND/CVG-STL-west coast might make sense.
I can't see anything else west getting added after SMF/SJC got added on the last extension.
I would also like to see PIT go 2x daily.


Southwest did previously have nonstop service to SLC from STL, and Southwest could bring back STL-SLC nonstop service at some point since SLC is one of the few destinations served by Southwest that Southwest does not serve nonstop from STL, since SLC has nonstop service out of STL on an airline other than Southwest, and since Southwest has added nonstop service out of SLC to additional destinations in the last 2 years, including DAL, SJC, SMF, BUR, and SAN.

Is there enough demand for Southwest to serve BUF nonstop from STL? Southwest would be able to connect passengers from BUF to destinations further west through STL if Southwest added STL-BUF nonstop service, and most of these destinations do not have any nonstop service to BUF on any airline.

Southwest did serve SDF nonstop from STL in the past, and Southwest could bring back SDF-STL nonstop service as bringing back SDF-STL nonstop service would make it easier to get to destinations between STL and DEN from SDF on Southwest.

I also agree that Southwest would be able to provide additional connecting opportunities through STL from IND, CVG, and MEM if Southwest adds nonstop service from IND, CVG, and MEM. Southwest adding nonstops from STL to MEM, IND, SDF, and CVG do make sense since Southwest can connect those traveling to destinations between STL and DEN through STL from these 4 cities if Southwest adds nonstop service to these 4 cities through STL.
 
izbtmnhd
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Re: Southwest Schedule Extension 11/02/17

Fri Oct 20, 2017 12:57 pm

A lot of talk of CVG on here but I don't think they're doing anything in this extension and probably the next few coming up. Cincinnati Business Journal had a story last month with WN folks saying late 2018 for expansion is possible but more likely 2019. I can see that with Hawaii on the horizon.

Also, I really don't see a large expansion coming for CVG. WN has "hubs" at MDW, STL, BNA, ATL and BWI. They also have decent ops at IND, CMH and PIT. WN has been growing CLE at a good clip as of late when most on here thought CVG be the focus of the DAY/CAK consolidation. There's no need for WN to feed a large amount of connections through CVG.

I see CVG WN ops running long the lines of the other Midwest DL hubs going to around 20 destinations when the station matures. Maybe the situation changes if F9 and G4 can't make CVG work.

The CLE airport director hinted that MCI was a possible announcement for returned service before the year is out. Only carrier I see doing that is WN. We'll see.
 
evank516
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Re: Southwest Schedule Extension 11/02/17

Fri Oct 20, 2017 2:00 pm

WNflyer1523 wrote:
MHT, PWM, RIC, and ISP likely have a good chance of getting cut. If Southwest doesn't leave those airports (which I'd be very surprised if they didn't) then likely a huge decrease in service. (Both RIC and PWM already have only like 2-4 daily flights.)


I can't speak for MHT, PWM, and RIC, but I can speak for ISP. Don't expect ISP to disappear anytime soon, if ever. They have a good thing going there. They fly Long Islanders to Florida and for every other destination they connect through BWI which is essentially WN's east coast Mega Hub. I think we may see some more flights come into all of these markets with more planes coming online soon. With F9 starting out in ISP, I'm sure WN is going to keep a close eye on what performs well for F9 and what doesn't.

On another note, completely wishful thinking but a second daily LGA-MCI flight would be fantastic.
 
joeljack
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Re: Southwest Schedule Extension 11/02/17

Fri Oct 20, 2017 2:16 pm

I know WN has added lots of flights from my home airport of OMA the last few years. New flights to LAX, MCO, TPA, HOU, DCA. Some seasonal, some year round. The only obvious missing link in my mind is BNA. BNA currently has no nonstop service from OMA and it a pretty big WN station. I think this would do well with no competition.

I have other cities I would love to see added from OMA too on WN, but I'll stick with the BNA wish because this is the biggest missing hole in my mind.

From DSM, the BIG missing hole is DEN. DEN would do really well from DSM! Otherwise, maybe the PHX flight would eventually go daily in the future after it is 'tested'. WN is going to fly if for a couple months this spring 2x weekly on Sat and Sunday. Otherwise, DSM isn't a big enough market for anything else, except maybe DAL which is severely gate constrained.
 
evank516
Posts: 2194
Joined: Wed Mar 01, 2017 12:15 am

Re: Southwest Schedule Extension 11/02/17

Fri Oct 20, 2017 2:21 pm

joeljack wrote:
I know WN has added lots of flights from my home airport of OMA the last few years. New flights to LAX, MCO, TPA, HOU, DCA. Some seasonal, some year round. The only obvious missing link in my mind is BNA. BNA currently has no nonstop service from OMA and it a pretty big WN station. I think this would do well with no competition.

I have other cities I would love to see added from OMA too on WN, but I'll stick with the BNA wish because this is the biggest missing hole in my mind.

From DSM, the BIG missing hole is DEN. DEN would do really well from DSM! Otherwise, maybe the PHX flight would eventually go daily in the future after it is 'tested'. WN is going to fly if for a couple months this spring 2x weekly on Sat and Sunday. Otherwise, DSM isn't a big enough market for anything else, except maybe DAL which is severely gate constrained.


Didn't they axe MDW-DSM in favor of STL-DSM? That one baffles me.
 
Jshank83
Posts: 3702
Joined: Tue Nov 01, 2016 2:23 pm

Re: Southwest Schedule Extension 11/02/17

Fri Oct 20, 2017 2:33 pm

evank516 wrote:

Didn't they axe MDW-DSM in favor of STL-DSM? That one baffles me.


I think it was because they were running out of space at MDW and moved flights/started flights at STL from some smaller airports instead to run their connections through STL.

Airports with service to STL but not MDW

DSM, TUL, LIT, ICT
OKC (just started some MDW service). I am not sure if it is seasonal or permanent.
MKE - but obviously they probably wouldn't run that to MDW
 
joeljack
Posts: 659
Joined: Fri Feb 25, 2005 12:38 pm

Re: Southwest Schedule Extension 11/02/17

Fri Oct 20, 2017 2:34 pm

evank516 wrote:
joeljack wrote:
I know WN has added lots of flights from my home airport of OMA the last few years. New flights to LAX, MCO, TPA, HOU, DCA. Some seasonal, some year round. The only obvious missing link in my mind is BNA. BNA currently has no nonstop service from OMA and it a pretty big WN station. I think this would do well with no competition.

I have other cities I would love to see added from OMA too on WN, but I'll stick with the BNA wish because this is the biggest missing hole in my mind.

From DSM, the BIG missing hole is DEN. DEN would do really well from DSM! Otherwise, maybe the PHX flight would eventually go daily in the future after it is 'tested'. WN is going to fly if for a couple months this spring 2x weekly on Sat and Sunday. Otherwise, DSM isn't a big enough market for anything else, except maybe DAL which is severely gate constrained.


Didn't they axe MDW-DSM in favor of STL-DSM? That one baffles me.


Yes they did. They were getting very little O/D on the MDW-DSM route. Living in DSM, most people drive the route. The business travelers that fly it are already tied into their airline loyalties and kept flying UA and AA. All WN did was lower the price of UA and AA, which was wonderful but not enough people made the leap to WN. This is the exact thing that happened on MKE-MSP too. People wouldn't leave DL for WN, so WN left. DSM-STL has no competition, and from what I've heard, has done better. I haven't looked up the numbers though to see how the O/D is doing on the route.
 
evank516
Posts: 2194
Joined: Wed Mar 01, 2017 12:15 am

Re: Southwest Schedule Extension 11/02/17

Fri Oct 20, 2017 2:58 pm

joeljack wrote:
evank516 wrote:
joeljack wrote:
I know WN has added lots of flights from my home airport of OMA the last few years. New flights to LAX, MCO, TPA, HOU, DCA. Some seasonal, some year round. The only obvious missing link in my mind is BNA. BNA currently has no nonstop service from OMA and it a pretty big WN station. I think this would do well with no competition.

I have other cities I would love to see added from OMA too on WN, but I'll stick with the BNA wish because this is the biggest missing hole in my mind.

From DSM, the BIG missing hole is DEN. DEN would do really well from DSM! Otherwise, maybe the PHX flight would eventually go daily in the future after it is 'tested'. WN is going to fly if for a couple months this spring 2x weekly on Sat and Sunday. Otherwise, DSM isn't a big enough market for anything else, except maybe DAL which is severely gate constrained.


Didn't they axe MDW-DSM in favor of STL-DSM? That one baffles me.


Yes they did. They were getting very little O/D on the MDW-DSM route. Living in DSM, most people drive the route. The business travelers that fly it are already tied into their airline loyalties and kept flying UA and AA. All WN did was lower the price of UA and AA, which was wonderful but not enough people made the leap to WN. This is the exact thing that happened on MKE-MSP too. People wouldn't leave DL for WN, so WN left. DSM-STL has no competition, and from what I've heard, has done better. I haven't looked up the numbers though to see how the O/D is doing on the route.


Makes sense. I guess when incumbent airlines are entrenched in a market and the loyalty is already decided, WN can't exactly steal the customers away especially when UA and AA respond to WN's MDW flights. It looks like STL is becoming for WN what AA thought it would do for them which is a hub to relieve MDW and DAL instead of ORD and DFW.
 
ADrum23
Posts: 1789
Joined: Fri Jul 14, 2017 11:54 pm

Re: Southwest Schedule Extension 11/02/17

Fri Oct 20, 2017 3:00 pm

cvgComair wrote:
ADrum23 wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:
Personally I would like to see
IND-SAT, IND-AUS (year-round), IND-SAN (see it come back), IND-MSY(year-round), IND-PDX or SEA, CMH-SAN/LAX (both year-round), more West Coast-Midwest routes

Long shots:
IND-OAK/MSP/BNA/STL, CVG-DEN

Also, CVG-DEN is not a long-shot at all, it may be the most likely destination WN will launch next out of CVG, and I anticipate we will be seeing WN significantly expand at CVG in the coming years.

I think anything from CVG is a long shot for this schedule extension. I still think its going to take 1-2 more before CVG sees new routes, but I would love to be surprised!


Honestly, I'd be somewhat surprised if CVG didn't see anything in this extension. The current flights are doing well, and this next period (summer 2018) will be the one year anniversary of WN starting at CVG. I honestly would be surprised if it took until the Fall of 2018 or later for WN to add new destinations out of CVG.
 
User avatar
Midwestindy
Topic Author
Posts: 5559
Joined: Sun Mar 12, 2017 3:56 am

Re: Southwest Schedule Extension 11/02/17

Fri Oct 20, 2017 3:22 pm

ADrum23 wrote:
cvgComair wrote:
ADrum23 wrote:
Also, CVG-DEN is not a long-shot at all, it may be the most likely destination WN will launch next out of CVG, and I anticipate we will be seeing WN significantly expand at CVG in the coming years.

I think anything from CVG is a long shot for this schedule extension. I still think its going to take 1-2 more before CVG sees new routes, but I would love to be surprised!


Honestly, I'd be somewhat surprised if CVG didn't see anything in this extension. The current flights are doing well, and this next period (summer 2018) will be the one year anniversary of WN starting at CVG. I honestly would be surprised if it took until the Fall of 2018 or later for WN to add new destinations out of CVG.


How exactly do you know whether or not the flights are doing well?
Here is the data I have pulled from these routes, so far...
LF
MDW-CVG--60.2%
CVG-MDW--63.8%
CVG-BWI--76.7%
BWI-CG--79.2%

Average Fare
CVG-MDW/MDW-CVG--$107.8647541
CVG-BWI/BWI-CVG--$98.62599388

WN personally said that they would continue to wait a few more months before adding new routes out of CVG, so I would be surprised if they announced anything for CVG in this extension
ORD & IND

AA & DL
 
izbtmnhd
Posts: 956
Joined: Tue Aug 17, 2010 7:06 pm

Re: Southwest Schedule Extension 11/02/17

Fri Oct 20, 2017 3:37 pm

ADrum23 wrote:
cvgComair wrote:
ADrum23 wrote:
Also, CVG-DEN is not a long-shot at all, it may be the most likely destination WN will launch next out of CVG, and I anticipate we will be seeing WN significantly expand at CVG in the coming years.

I think anything from CVG is a long shot for this schedule extension. I still think its going to take 1-2 more before CVG sees new routes, but I would love to be surprised!


Honestly, I'd be somewhat surprised if CVG didn't see anything in this extension. The current flights are doing well, and this next period (summer 2018) will be the one year anniversary of WN starting at CVG. I honestly would be surprised if it took until the Fall of 2018 or later for WN to add new destinations out of CVG.


WN itself is saying they're taking a wait and see attitude on CVG. Not quite sure why WN needs to put CVG expansion at the head of the list all of a sudden.
 
dc10lover
Posts: 1594
Joined: Mon Dec 29, 2014 6:11 pm

Re: Southwest Schedule Extension 11/02/17

Fri Oct 20, 2017 4:04 pm

I hope Southwest adds more flights from PDX.
Why endure the nightmare and congestion of LAX when BUR, LGB, ONT & SNA is so much easier to fly in and out of. Same with OAK & SJC when it comes to SFO.
 
wnflyguy
Posts: 2093
Joined: Thu Feb 10, 2011 7:58 pm

Re: Southwest Schedule Extension 11/02/17

Fri Oct 20, 2017 4:07 pm

evank516 wrote:
joeljack wrote:
I know WN has added lots of flights from my home airport of OMA the last few years. New flights to LAX, MCO, TPA, HOU, DCA. Some seasonal, some year round. The only obvious missing link in my mind is BNA. BNA currently has no nonstop service from OMA and it a pretty big WN station. I think this would do well with no competition.

I have other cities I would love to see added from OMA too on WN, but I'll stick with the BNA wish because this is the biggest missing hole in my mind.

From DSM, the BIG missing hole is DEN. DEN would do really well from DSM! Otherwise, maybe the PHX flight would eventually go daily in the future after it is 'tested'. WN is going to fly if for a couple months this spring 2x weekly on Sat and Sunday. Otherwise, DSM isn't a big enough market for anything else, except maybe DAL which is severely gate constrained.


Didn't they axe MDW-DSM in favor of STL-DSM? That one baffles me.


Majority of the DSM-MDW traffic was almost around 92% connections with something like 20% going to STL alone via MDW. So it made more since to capture the majority of the connections thru STL vs MDW plus gain a high yield to STL.

ROC had the same issue majority of the connections transferred via MDW to the south and east very few actually went to MDW.

But who know what the summer will bring!

Flyguy
My Wings are clipped just another Retired Airline person. The Ultimate Armchair out of the loop airline industry geek. Aloha Mr Hand!
 
Jshank83
Posts: 3702
Joined: Tue Nov 01, 2016 2:23 pm

Re: Southwest Schedule Extension 11/02/17

Fri Oct 20, 2017 4:23 pm

joeljack wrote:
evank516 wrote:
joeljack wrote:
I know WN has added lots of flights from my home airport of OMA the last few years. New flights to LAX, MCO, TPA, HOU, DCA. Some seasonal, some year round. The only obvious missing link in my mind is BNA. BNA currently has no nonstop service from OMA and it a pretty big WN station. I think this would do well with no competition.

I have other cities I would love to see added from OMA too on WN, but I'll stick with the BNA wish because this is the biggest missing hole in my mind.

From DSM, the BIG missing hole is DEN. DEN would do really well from DSM! Otherwise, maybe the PHX flight would eventually go daily in the future after it is 'tested'. WN is going to fly if for a couple months this spring 2x weekly on Sat and Sunday. Otherwise, DSM isn't a big enough market for anything else, except maybe DAL which is severely gate constrained.


Didn't they axe MDW-DSM in favor of STL-DSM? That one baffles me.


Yes they did. They were getting very little O/D on the MDW-DSM route. Living in DSM, most people drive the route. The business travelers that fly it are already tied into their airline loyalties and kept flying UA and AA. All WN did was lower the price of UA and AA, which was wonderful but not enough people made the leap to WN. This is the exact thing that happened on MKE-MSP too. People wouldn't leave DL for WN, so WN left. DSM-STL has no competition, and from what I've heard, has done better. I haven't looked up the numbers though to see how the O/D is doing on the route.


O/D is 37 passengers (in each direction) a day on average for the last year. It is in line with STL-LIT/TUL/ICT.
LF for Jan-July 2017
STL-DSM is 76.7%
DSM-STL is 77%
 
jplatts
Posts: 3945
Joined: Sat Mar 18, 2017 6:42 pm

Re: Southwest Schedule Extension 11/02/17

Fri Oct 20, 2017 4:43 pm

Will Southwest ever serve destinations other than ATL nonstop from GSP? It is especially unusual for Southwest to serve only ATL nonstop from GSP since AirTran did not serve GSP, since GSP is only 152 miles east of ATL, since the Southwest ATL-GSP nonstops go head-to-head with Delta Air Lines (whose main hub is at ATL), and since ATL appears to be too close to GSP for Southwest to serve ATL nonstop from GSP.

Many of the connections that can be done through ATL from GSP on Southwest could be done through BNA or STL if Southwest added nonstop service to BNA or STL from GSP. Southwest had also brought back MCO-FLL nonstop service back in June, and Southwest would be able to connect passengers to FLL and 3 Caribbean destinations through MCO from GSP if Southwest added GSP-MCO nonstop service. Will Southwest add GSP-BNA, GSP-STL, and/or GSP-MCO nonstop service?
 
Cubsrule
Posts: 14735
Joined: Sat May 15, 2004 12:13 pm

Re: Southwest Schedule Extension 11/02/17

Fri Oct 20, 2017 4:56 pm

jplatts wrote:
Will Southwest ever serve destinations other than ATL nonstop from GSP? It is especially unusual for Southwest to serve only ATL nonstop from GSP since AirTran did not serve GSP, since GSP is only 152 miles east of ATL, since the Southwest ATL-GSP nonstops go head-to-head with Delta Air Lines (whose main hub is at ATL), and since ATL appears to be too close to GSP for Southwest to serve ATL nonstop from GSP.

Many of the connections that can be done through ATL from GSP on Southwest could be done through BNA or STL if Southwest added nonstop service to BNA or STL from GSP. Southwest had also brought back MCO-FLL nonstop service back in June, and Southwest would be able to connect passengers to FLL and 3 Caribbean destinations through MCO from GSP if Southwest added GSP-MCO nonstop service. Will Southwest add GSP-BNA, GSP-STL, and/or GSP-MCO nonstop service?


WN opened GSP with service to BNA; GSP and CHS had similar service patterns in the beginning. One has kept all or virtually all of its original service and even expanded a bit. The other has floundered. That should tell you what you need to know. GSP has more than 2,500 daily air carrier flights within a two hour drive. That's a challenge.
I can't decide whether I miss the tulip or the bowling shoe more
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