Flyglobal
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Re: Boeing may consider restarting 767 pax model production

Fri Oct 20, 2017 2:22 pm

cheapgreek wrote:
...
The biggest bang for the buck would be new engines. A new wing would not give much in fuel savings as new engines would and I would think a wing upgrade would cost more than hanging new engines.


Basically yes, but you have to say that the new efficient engines come along with heavier weight. So at least the Wing and Fuselage attached structure needs to be upgraded to Support this weight.


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DfwRevolution
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Re: Boeing may consider restarting 767 pax model production

Fri Oct 20, 2017 2:26 pm

Boeingphan wrote:
Reheating cold pizza. This is a terrible idea at best. This screams unimaginative and if true is owing up to being 2nd fiddle. Right now it feels like Boeing is grasping at straws for everything.


If you can make an NPV-positive investment, you do it. Investors don't care what you're "reheating" or "polishing." Investors don't give you any credit for imagination. Can I generate a discounted cash flow with a net present value greater than zero? That's all that matters.

Revelation wrote:
There is no existing engine that can serve as a 767MAX engine and no time or money or even interest in developing one. The 767 can't support a larger/heavier engine and all modern engines are larger and heavier.


I'm sort of surprised by this.

The GEnx-2B is about 2,500 lbs heavier than the CF6-80C2. Not trivial, but it's an equivalent weight to 400 gallons of JetA on a wing structure that contains up to 12,000 gallons of JetA. Sure, the bending moments aren't 1-to-1 and so forth. But I find it very surprising such a change couldn't be managed by a combination of offloading fuel or minor structural modification.
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jbs2886
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Re: Boeing may consider restarting 767 pax model production

Fri Oct 20, 2017 2:32 pm

Stitch wrote:
VSMUT wrote:
Managing to sell 4000 is only half the story. At what margins? If the product is so inferior that Boeing has to sell them at significantly marked down prices (or financing the operation of almost bankrupt airlines, or selling 73Gs to UA for 22 mil.), then 4000 sales would be almost worthless. There is every indication that this has indeed been the case for a significant amount of the 737MAX orders.


Well if Boeing's margins over the next few quarters crater as they start delivering MAX, we'll know, but I expect MAX margins are at least as strong as the NG (which has seen significant "cheap deals") and they have not hurt Boeing's margins.


KarelXWB wrote:
If there is so much demand for the pax version, why did Boeing not sell them years earlier?


Because Scott Kirby was not CEO of United years earlier? He seems to be the one pushing through UA's fleet replacement and modernization. He spearheaded the A350-900 order conversion and expansion to handle 777-200 replacement and per a January article in Flight Global, now he's looking at the 767 fleet. If MOM is a decade out, then fresh 767s might pencil in better for the missions UA is running them on then A350-900s or 787s.


Fresh 767s would probably also allow the newer 767s to move to domestic. I personally think we may see a return of a decent amount of domestic widebody flying among UA, AA and DL.
 
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FoxtrotSierra
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Re: Boeing may consider restarting 767 pax model production

Fri Oct 20, 2017 2:39 pm

jbs2886 wrote:
Fresh 767s would probably also allow the newer 767s to move to domestic. I personally think we may see a return of a decent amount of domestic widebody flying among UA, AA and DL.


That’s assuming all three will buy it.
 
flyabr
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Re: Boeing may consider restarting 767 pax model production

Fri Oct 20, 2017 2:43 pm

I read that at one point Boeing proposed a 764ERX with GP7000 powerplants. Would that option be better than the GENx weight-wise, and better than CF6 or PW4000 engines economically?
 
iceberg210
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Re: Boeing may consider restarting 767 pax model production

Fri Oct 20, 2017 2:45 pm

One of the myths I think of the 767 A330 competition is that the A330 replaced the whole market segment that the 767 had. In reality it was more that they're slightly different segments and where they overlapped at the 767-400ER yeah the 767 got it's butt kicked, but for the 300 I think the slow down in orders was more market saturation than there being a better alternative for the segment. It's kind of like (on a smaller scale) the A380's troubles right now, it's not selling many not because it's been replaced but that it's saturated the market for the most part. However 767's are now at the point where the advantage of a younger frame might outweigh the cost especially when they can be bought for relatively cheaply in the grand scheme, and with a solid freighter market to prop up the resell values it makes a lot of sense that the 767 might get a new lease on life. In my opinion Boeing will take off the shelf whatever improvements are already approved for the plane, along with any simple programing etc things for engines, and just make more of the standard model, except maybe with the winglets that are already certified. If you're selling aircraft at end of the line prices where R and D has already been paid off, no certification costs to recoup, and right away, the lower capital costs of the plane can pay for a surprising amount of extra fuel you have to use for a less efficient plane and engines, if oil stays as low as it is. And if oil doesn't stay low you sell them off to the freighter market. One way to look at this might be Boeing is going to make a bunch of freighters that just so happen to start their life off as passenger planes for a few years :P
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jbs2886
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Re: Boeing may consider restarting 767 pax model production

Fri Oct 20, 2017 2:47 pm

FoxtrotSierra wrote:
jbs2886 wrote:
Fresh 767s would probably also allow the newer 767s to move to domestic. I personally think we may see a return of a decent amount of domestic widebody flying among UA, AA and DL.


That’s assuming all three will buy it.


I didn't assume anything. I just said I expect all three to do more widebody flying, I did not say all three would buy new 767s. DL may use A330neos to do it. AA, who knows.
Last edited by jbs2886 on Fri Oct 20, 2017 2:48 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
Aptivaboy
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Re: Boeing may consider restarting 767 pax model production

Fri Oct 20, 2017 2:48 pm

kmz wrote:
A B767MAX with new wings makes no sense, then they could just do a B787-3...


Quite correct, I think.


I'm actually going to respectfully disagree. Over the long term, you're almost certainly correct. But, this appears to be a shorter term move, assuming it happens. A 767MAX or 767Upgrade or whatever it becomes would have the benefits of cheaper price, and a preexisting maintenance and parts supply chain. Airlines currently operating the 763 wouldn't have to go very far to source parts or conduct crew training - it would already largely be there. Also, there aren't many 787 slots available, so a 787-3 might not be do-able. Sure, they could design it, but where would they build it? On the other hand, the 767 has it's own dedicated production line going as we speak and will for the foreseeable future.

Short term, this could be very interesting.

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Re: Boeing may consider restarting 767 pax model production

Fri Oct 20, 2017 2:49 pm

HIA350 wrote:
32andBelow wrote:
The already replaced the 767. It is the 787-8

Please stop this thread, well said my friend

Except, not exactly. The 788 is similar in size to the 764, not the 763, which was the most popular variant. In addition, the 788 is significantly heavier than the 767 coming in at 17T heavier than the 764 and 33T heavier than the 763.

While the 787 is a significantly more capable machine (being able to fly some of the longest flights in the world), many carriers don't need that range. A re-engined 767 would be an interesting TATL plane that could be acquired for much cheaper than the 787.
 
zhiao
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Re: Boeing may consider restarting 767 pax model production

Fri Oct 20, 2017 2:56 pm

Tired of all this doom and gloom for Boeing. So they lose out on buying a failing plane + have double the orders of Airbus thus far this year= disaster for Boeing. LMAO.

The fact is that both these companies have only 2 models which are selling.
Last edited by zhiao on Fri Oct 20, 2017 2:59 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
sagechan
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Re: Boeing may consider restarting 767 pax model production

Fri Oct 20, 2017 2:56 pm

If there were to be an order, it could make sense due to a few factors, but the purchaser would be betting on theae staying consistent for a decade. 1) current 767s are coming to end of life with no like replacement on the market, 787/A330 are more plane than needed. 2) fuel is cheap, 3) P2F market for 767 is hot and usuable frames are getting low, so demand for used frames keeps resale value. So if you're expectations are you buy a cheap and new 767 pax, fly it for 10 years witg cheap fuel then recoup a decent cost at resale then it can be a justified purchase. Almost no chance of any significant redesign work, imo.
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Re: Boeing may consider restarting 767 pax model production

Fri Oct 20, 2017 3:02 pm

SomebodyInTLS wrote:
I'm not trying to be a blue meanie here, but this doesn't sound like anything more than chucking out a few more end-of-line examples for one or two carriers who have asked for it.


Since they have to keep an enormous of capital cost keeping the 767 line open for the KC-46, why not add more commercial work (even at low margins) to defray the cost of the tankers?
Also the 787F is not any where in the horizon. The 767F market (Amazon) has no competition other than conversions.

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DfwRevolution
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Re: Boeing may consider restarting 767 pax model production

Fri Oct 20, 2017 3:28 pm

caverunner17 wrote:
Except, not exactly. The 788 is similar in size to the 764, not the 763, which was the most popular variant. .


The baseline 7E7 configurations were sized to match the 763ER and 764ER. Airlines said "bigger" and Boeing revised them to more closely match the A332 and A333.

flyabr wrote:
I read that at one point Boeing proposed a 764ERX with GP7000 powerplants. Would that option be better than the GENx weight-wise, and better than CF6 or PW4000 engines economically?


No, the GP7000 is even heavier than the GEnx-2B and has even more excess thrust. It's just too big for a 763ER-sized aircraft.

If I recall correctly, Engine Alliance also made a concession to the EU that the GP7000 would only be offered on quad-jet aircraft in order to gain regulatory approval for a GE-PW joint venture. That might be an urban legend, though.
Last edited by DfwRevolution on Fri Oct 20, 2017 3:33 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Boeing may consider restarting 767 pax model production

Fri Oct 20, 2017 3:34 pm

HIA350 wrote:
32andBelow wrote:
The already replaced the 767. It is the 787-8

Please stop this thread, well said my friend

It was supposed to but it hasn’t. It’s much bigger and heavier than a 767-300, and there is almost no business case for it anymore. The only thing the 787-8 has done is sell 423 copies and fail to sell anymore because it is overweight and too small compared to the 787-9. The 787-9 has basically replaced it and it is far too big to replace the 767. Boeing seems to want to quit the 787-8 as it’s too different and inferior to the 787-9 and -10 and costs more to build than sell according to what some say. If the 787 was the perfect 767 replacement the 767 would largely be out of service and out of production.
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Re: Boeing may consider restarting 767 pax model production

Fri Oct 20, 2017 3:45 pm

767333ER wrote:
HIA350 wrote:
32andBelow wrote:
The already replaced the 767. It is the 787-8

Please stop this thread, well said my friend

It was supposed to but it hasn’t. It’s much bigger and heavier than a 767-300, and there is almost no business case for it anymore. The only thing the 787-8 has done is sell 423 copies and fail to sell anymore because it is overweight and too small compared to the 787-9. The 787-9 has basically replaced it and it is far too big to replace the 767. Boeing seems to want to quit the 787-8 as it’s too different and inferior to the 787-9 and -10 and costs more to build than sell according to what some say. If the 787 was the perfect 767 replacement the 767 would largely be out of service and out of production.


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Re: Boeing may consider restarting 767 pax model production

Fri Oct 20, 2017 3:47 pm

KarelXWB wrote:
Stitch wrote:
ytz wrote:
Scores? Really?


Leeham says upward of 50-60 and Puget Sound Business Journal says possibly even more.


Stitch wrote:
FoxtrotSierra wrote:
I cannot help but wonder about the timing of this proposed order coinciding with the A330NEO's first flight. Boeing trying to steal Airbus' thunder? Probably not, but still weird.


The reports are that one or more airlines are pushing Boeing to do this.


Stitch wrote:

It is still on the Price List, but it appears Boeing has internally stopped offering it so unless you will commit to a significant number, Boeing is not going to entertain an RFP.


If there is so much demand for the pax version, why did Boeing not sell them years earlier?


I don’t think airlines needed them years ago. Many things have changed in the market.
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highflier92660
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Re: Boeing may consider restarting 767 pax model production

Fri Oct 20, 2017 3:50 pm

Gazing into the crystal ball of Boeing risk-averse management they probably want to restart the 767 assembly line to produce aircraft with as little upgrade cost as possible. Haven't they been producing the aerial equivalent of the 737 Wagon Queen Family Truckster for half a century?
 
Leslieville
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Re: Boeing may consider restarting 767 pax model production

Fri Oct 20, 2017 3:50 pm

As others have noted, a major redesign is highly unlikely. What is likely is MAX'ing the 767, with new engines (GENx), minor aero and weight-saving improvements (updated winglet/blended wing), and the Sky Interior product. That's about it.

The P2F aftermarket for the 767 is strong and new-build 767Fs and KC-46s are rolling off the line and these would potentially benefit from the MAX upgrades, too.
 
TheDBCooper
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Re: Boeing may consider restarting 767 pax model production

Fri Oct 20, 2017 3:52 pm

I am in favor of Boeing doing a 767X; it could remove the need for a clean sheet NMA in the near term. There could also be synergies in using the GENx-2B, and the upgraded 787-style Rockwell Collins flight deck for the KC-46. This would increase the market for spares and potentially reduce overhaul costs for existing customers. It could allow busier 757 routes to be replaced with a 767X, allowing hours on the existing 757 fleet to be prolonged. I'd then expect the next clean sheet design from Boeing to be a 737/757 replacement, same fuselage but with different wings - much like Embraer with the E170/E190. That would take Boeing until around 2025 where the 787/777X will remain competitive. That's my take...
 
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Re: Boeing may consider restarting 767 pax model production

Fri Oct 20, 2017 3:58 pm

mat66 wrote:
Boeing778X wrote:
Pretty soon they'll get the idea that the 767 is already their MoM, and then they'll fall further behind, marketwise.

Boeing is quickly losing their drive! By 2025 they have a few awesome widebodies and basically inferiority under the 787 :banghead: While Airbus figures out "Hey, this A322 thing actually might not be a bad idea!"

Then they say "Huh! The CS500 might actually be a great airplane!"

Is is bad that I'm rooting for Airbus at the moment? :gasp:


Hello 767MAX Mk. I aka A330-900 (we wrote about it earlier today :) ). You are absolutely right, the 767 was done as soon as the A330 got decent MTOW upgrades. Even before it only sold to domestic US airlines, Japan and UK Boeing Airways. The 757/767 was the last program before Asia/Middle East became the dominant market. This is just plain silly. If the A330neo has just 210 orders, how many are there here? If it was April fools...


There are large numbers of 767's still flying. Those would be Boeing orders to loose. Some airlines want new versions as the 787 is over weight for short haul US, Japan ops vs the 767. With new engines that gap would be filled. 767-400ER nose gear should allow the GEnx-67B on the frame. Gives more use for the engine now that the 747-8i is closing down.
 
CallmeJB
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Re: Boeing may consider restarting 767 pax model production

Fri Oct 20, 2017 4:06 pm

2 years ago, FedEx orders 110+ 767s. Today, they have 50 of those on property, and it seems like a good decision.

This week, rumor of United ordering 60 more, and all of a sudden A.net freaks out. "They need new engines!" "They need new wings!"

FedEx is about to be the largest operator of 767s in the world, and guess what: they care about fuel burn, too! FedEx ordered those 767s for the same reason that United is about to order 767s: turn-key fleet replacement with a reliable aircraft that is 'good enough'.

727s were replaced by 757s because there is a massive difference in fuel efficiency. DC-10s were replaced by 767s and A330s for the same reason: massive fuel burn differences. There simply hasn't been an aircraft designed since the 767 that fills the market gap effectively. The 787-8 and A350 are better aircraft, but not 727 -> 757 better. And once you factor in ownership costs, the 767 starts making a lot of sense. Or, rather, keeps making a lot of sense.

It also doesn't make sense to engineer a max version. It barely made sense to do it for the 747... but longer flights make fuel burn more important.

Sorry A.netters, this market doesn't care about max range and lower cabin altitudes. This market just needs a wide body 4-hour aircraft.
 
VetteDude
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Re: Boeing may consider restarting 767 pax model production

Fri Oct 20, 2017 4:08 pm

Wow a lot of insane people on this website.

We get rumors that Boeing wants to make some 767-300ER's IN RESPONSE TO AN AIRLINE'S REQUEST FOR THEM and we hear from the shills that "the plane is dead, no business case" or "Airbus is really eating Boeing's lunch" and "the 767MAX is a dumb idea" even though there is no substantiation to the 767MAX rumors - it's purely an a.net wet dream fantasy. The fact that someone wants to buy 767-300ER's is proof that their is a business case to the plane. And Boeing can offer them cheap and still churn a nice gross profit. Can't say the same for creating a dud model like the 787-3 that was still a POS. Remember that the 787-8 is better than the 737-3 on everything above 500nm.

The other joke here is how many people are complaining about derivative models vs clean sheet designs. Apparently nobody can grasp just how much better financially it is to refine existing designs vs starting from scratch. It's just pure good business. Once a model can't really be refined any further to stay competitive, it reaches its "MAX" and gets replaced.
 
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Re: Boeing may consider restarting 767 pax model production

Fri Oct 20, 2017 4:10 pm

Revelation wrote:
Leslieville wrote:
As others have noted, a major redesign is highly unlikely. What is likely is MAX'ing the 767, with new engines (GENx), minor aero and weight-saving improvements (updated winglet/blended wing), and the Sky Interior product. That's about it.

The P2F aftermarket for the 767 is strong and new-build 767Fs and KC-46s are rolling off the line and these would potentially benefit from the MAX upgrades, too.

Uhm, no, a MAX 767 with new engines is NOT the most likely outcome.

Boeing is considering a quick run of pax 767s to keep one or two customers happy.

There is no engine, no time, and no business case for a 767 MAX.


Isn't it amazing how we hear that Boeing is preparing to run a few 767-300ER's, and then people start talking about a 'cheap' new composite wing and new engines? Delusional. Most likely outcome here, is we get a couple new build 767-300ER's. Same exact one that they have sold hundreds and hundreds of, but maybe with a slight PIP refinement.
 
nine4nine
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Re: Boeing may consider restarting 767 pax model production

Fri Oct 20, 2017 4:10 pm

LAX772LR wrote:
nine4nine wrote:
No. I love Boeings but I'm with you on this. Airbus is dancing circles around Boeing. While Boeing continues to play dress up with antique mid century models, Airbus is killing them with newer modern and innovative product.

Huh?

...what are you talking about:
Even over the last 20yrs, Boeing and Airbus have both developed the exact same number of all-new aircraft types: two.
A380/A350 and 777/787.

Everything Airbus has produced since, has been either stretch, shrink, or re-engine of an existing model. Just like Boeing.



You are correct in some of your points. However, I'm not bashing Boeing. I have some stock invested with them and I'm frustrated that this company once dominant has been equal or even been beaten by Airbus in recent years with sales. And I think the lack of progression is solely to blame.

Boeing 737 was designed in 1964 and first flight in 1967.

Airbus A320 was designed in 1984 and first flight was in 1987.

20 years difference between the two. Yes Airbus has shrunk,stretched,re engined but has a youth of +20 on the 737. At this point the 737 should have been replaced to be superior to the A320 not an equal this far into the game.

Boeing 767 was designed in 1979 and first flight was in 1982.

Airbus A330 granted was a derivative of the A300 family and was designed in 1987 and first flight was 1992.

A +10 year difference between these two aircraft. The 767 has also undergone stretches and re engined as well. The 764 could basically be considered a MAX or NEO since it has an updated wing, updated flight deck, re engines, redesigned gear system alike the 777, and 777 interior.

I'm a huge Boeing fan I personally would just like them to move to the future rather than live in the past and keep pumping out the same old product with minor tweaks. They should be ahead of the curve as they have been in the past against Airbus by years. Instead of using their resources for temporary solutions they need to it the bullet and bank on the future. The 787 did that by leaps and bounds but can't reply solely on that program otherwise Airbus will leap on a given opportunity like they did with the 321 program which has no competition.
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Revelation
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Re: Boeing may consider restarting 767 pax model production

Fri Oct 20, 2017 4:11 pm

Leslieville wrote:
As others have noted, a major redesign is highly unlikely. What is likely is MAX'ing the 767, with new engines (GENx), minor aero and weight-saving improvements (updated winglet/blended wing), and the Sky Interior product. That's about it.

The P2F aftermarket for the 767 is strong and new-build 767Fs and KC-46s are rolling off the line and these would potentially benefit from the MAX upgrades, too.

Uhm, no, a MAX 767 with new engines is NOT the most likely outcome.

Boeing is considering a quick run of pax 767s to keep one or two customers happy.

There is no engine, no time, and no business case for a 767 MAX.

The article that started this thread says:

Boeing is nearing a decision whether to restart the 767-300ER passenger line, LNC has learned.

The 767-300ER, not any hypothetical 767 MAX !!!
Last edited by Revelation on Fri Oct 20, 2017 4:15 pm, edited 3 times in total.
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Re: Boeing may consider restarting 767 pax model production

Fri Oct 20, 2017 4:21 pm

VetteDude wrote:
Isn't it amazing how we hear that Boeing is preparing to run a few 767-300ER's, and then people start talking about a 'cheap' new composite wing and new engines? Delusional. Most likely outcome here, is we get a couple new build 767-300ER's. Same exact one that they have sold hundreds and hundreds of, but maybe with a slight PIP refinement.

Yep, a.net thinks one can just strap on new engines, do some aero tweaks, and ship it.

If only we had some evidence that reality was different than that.

Oh wait, there's the A330neo.

But nah, it's more fun to fantasize about putting together a new airplane.

I guess that's what happens when the Legos are no fun any more.
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airzona11
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Re: Boeing may consider restarting 767 pax model production

Fri Oct 20, 2017 4:29 pm

mjoelnir wrote:
It is a strange discussion here. Boeing did not pull the 767-300ER of the market. It is for sale, but did not sell. What is to restart? The supplier line?

I assume the only reason to buy a 767-300ER is if it would be offered dirt cheap.

Changes like a new engine takes time and if Boeing would decide to neo or rather MAX the 767 frames could perhaps be delivered 2020 or 2021. Very unlikely to happen.


That is the conundrum of a duopoly. Airlines at the time that have (had) a large fleet in that 767300 space only had a choice of A300 or 767. The A300 is gone and the 767 lives on as a freighter. They were still freshly delivered or had long lives left. There are hundreds still in operation. A and B have not offered close a enough plane that airlines have evaluated that makes sense to order. They have probably been hoping for a MoM but have only the larger, heavier A330, 787 or A350s to order. So now Boeing is looking closest of the 2 to offer a MoM, but that takes time and money. Maybe airlines are willing to come to the table? The embedded user base, maintenance, pilots, crew are all there. Very low risk. Price is a powerful tool.

On A.net there might be strong feelings one way or another, but none of these planes poor planes. They are engineering works that are withstanding the test of time and still delivering profits to their operators.
 
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Re: Boeing may consider restarting 767 pax model production

Fri Oct 20, 2017 4:33 pm

highflier92660 wrote:
Gazing into the crystal ball of Boeing risk-averse management they probably want to restart the 767 assembly line to produce aircraft with as little upgrade cost as possible. Haven't they been producing the aerial equivalent of the 737 Wagon Queen Family Truckster for half a century?


And they have made billions of dollars in profits doing it.
 
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Re: Boeing may consider restarting 767 pax model production

Fri Oct 20, 2017 4:36 pm

I tend to think a minor redesign is more likely.
- new cockpit.
- new engines.
- winglets.
- new interior.
- then PIP the snot out of the thing.

I doubt we'll see...
- a totally new wing, let alone a heavily composite one.
- a significant increase in MTOW.
- significantly longer range.

We're looking at a retool of the 767, not a total redesign. And yes, Boeing will need to retool the bird on some level or else what's the point? Airlines will simply buy the A330NEO, wait for the MOM and hope it fits their needs, or keep flying their existing 767s until they croak. A nice (relatively inexpensive and low risk) midrange retool to make the plane more competitive in the short term and assuage customers who need something now, not later, sounds about right.

I also don't think that Boeing would even be considering this had several airlines not approached them about this. The passenger 767 line was dead, and I doubt that Boeing wants to cannibalize potential 787 sales, assuming there's overlap between the two models on some level. Someone, probably at least one airline with a very significant order or multiple airlines with relatively large orders came to them wanting something sooner and Boeing is simply responding to this. Whether it happens or not, time will tell.

Bob
 
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seabosdca
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Re: Boeing may consider restarting 767 pax model production

Fri Oct 20, 2017 4:39 pm

packsonflight wrote:
they have long history of talking about new shiny aircrafts like 7E7, 7J7, sonic cruiser and all new narrow body before the MAX, and then in the end going with slightly warmed over design of the old metal like 757-300, 767-400, 747-8 and finally the MAX

Somehow the board always seems to go with low capital programs where they see quick returns over big long term investement.


Ugh, enough with the psychoanalysis. If this happens, it is a zero investment thing. It is just building a few more 767-300ERs and selling them at what I expect would be 737 MAX-type prices. Get the price low enough, maybe half of what an airline would expect to pay for an A330neo, and a new-build, low-maintenance 767 could be competitive on an interim basis.

Part of the customer's analysis could even be a gamble on 787 pricing: that once Boeing has delivered its first 1500 787s and eaten away a big chunk of the deferred-cost elephant, 787s will be available more cheaply. That would help cover the interim 767 ownership cost.
 
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ssteve
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Re: Boeing may consider restarting 767 pax model production

Fri Oct 20, 2017 4:45 pm

Stitch wrote:
KarelXWB wrote:
If there is so much demand for the pax version, why did Boeing not sell them years earlier?


Because Scott Kirby was not CEO of United years earlier? He seems to be the one pushing through UA's fleet replacement and modernization. He spearheaded the A350-900 order conversion and expansion to handle 777-200 replacement and per a January article in Flight Global, now he's looking at the 767 fleet. If MOM is a decade out, then fresh 767s might pencil in better for the missions UA is running them on then A350-900s or 787s.


Not to mention the current price of a barrel of oil is about half what it was in the relevant "years earlier."

These might have glass cockpits, but they'll otherwise be -300ERs, if it happens.
Last edited by ssteve on Fri Oct 20, 2017 4:46 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
caverunner17
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Re: Boeing may consider restarting 767 pax model production

Fri Oct 20, 2017 4:45 pm

CallmeJB wrote:
2 years ago, FedEx orders 110+ 767s. Today, they have 50 of those on property, and it seems like a good decision.

This week, rumor of United ordering 60 more, and all of a sudden A.net freaks out. "They need new engines!" "They need new wings!"

FedEx is about to be the largest operator of 767s in the world, and guess what: they care about fuel burn, too! FedEx ordered those 767s for the same reason that United is about to order 767s: turn-key fleet replacement with a reliable aircraft that is 'good enough'.

727s were replaced by 757s because there is a massive difference in fuel efficiency. DC-10s were replaced by 767s and A330s for the same reason: massive fuel burn differences. There simply hasn't been an aircraft designed since the 767 that fills the market gap effectively. The 787-8 and A350 are better aircraft, but not 727 -> 757 better. And once you factor in ownership costs, the 767 starts making a lot of sense. Or, rather, keeps making a lot of sense.

It also doesn't make sense to engineer a max version. It barely made sense to do it for the 747... but longer flights make fuel burn more important.

Sorry A.netters, this market doesn't care about max range and lower cabin altitudes. This market just needs a wide body 4-hour aircraft.


Eh. Fuel burn matters a less with cargo airlines like Fedex or UPS as the aircraft aren't flying nearly as many hours nor as long stage lengths. It's one thing to have a 767 fly MEM-DEN or MEM-MIA. It's another to have one fly ORD-AMS or SEA-NRT.

And we need more than a widebody 4 hour aircraft. Very few 767's are used on domestic runs. Most are TATL or to South America.
 
ZEDZAG
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Re: Boeing may consider restarting 767 pax model production

Fri Oct 20, 2017 4:46 pm

AirCal737 wrote:
The RB211 is also a ton or two heavier than the CF6. The GEnX-2B67 is 11 in larger than a PW4062 and the 764 has a 46cm longer MLG vs. 763. Should be fine.

Dont compare RB211-xxx to CF6-xxx please

We are talking about 767 engines, so CF6-80C2 and RB211-254H, and both wey the same
 
jbs2886
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Re: Boeing may consider restarting 767 pax model production

Fri Oct 20, 2017 4:49 pm

seabosdca wrote:
packsonflight wrote:
they have long history of talking about new shiny aircrafts like 7E7, 7J7, sonic cruiser and all new narrow body before the MAX, and then in the end going with slightly warmed over design of the old metal like 757-300, 767-400, 747-8 and finally the MAX

Somehow the board always seems to go with low capital programs where they see quick returns over big long term investement.


Ugh, enough with the psychoanalysis. If this happens, it is a zero investment thing. It is just building a few more 767-300ERs and selling them at what I expect would be 737 MAX-type prices. Get the price low enough, maybe half of what an airline would expect to pay for an A330neo, and a new-build, low-maintenance 767 could be competitive on an interim basis.

Part of the customer's analysis could even be a gamble on 787 pricing: that once Boeing has delivered its first 1500 787s and eaten away a big chunk of the deferred-cost element, 787s will be available more cheaply. That would help cover the interim 767 ownership cost.


While I disagree with packsonflight, I also disagree this will be a 0 investment thing. I think we will certainly see some upgrades to the 767 - taking things learned/developed with the 764, 767 tanker and, to some degree, 787. No it won't be a redesign, but it won't be no investment. Personally, I expect possibly an upgraded wing (764 maybe) and cockpit. I don't know enough to comment on engine, but I think that is a pretty significant change, but maybe it is possible.
 
amadorE175
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Re: Boeing may consider restarting 767 pax model production

Fri Oct 20, 2017 4:50 pm

If this does happen and Boeing makes more 763s, is it possible for them to have the 764's raked wintips or is that a design specific to the 764?
 
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KarelXWB
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Re: Boeing may consider restarting 767 pax model production

Fri Oct 20, 2017 4:54 pm

Aptivaboy wrote:
I tend to think a minor redesign is more likely.
- new cockpit.
- new engines.
- winglets.
- new interior.
- then PIP the snot out of the thing.


Putting a new engine on the aircraft is not a minor redesign. It's expensive and requires an intensive flight test campaign.
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DfwRevolution
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Re: Boeing may consider restarting 767 pax model production

Fri Oct 20, 2017 4:55 pm

Revelation wrote:
Yep, a.net thinks one can just strap on new engines, do some aero tweaks, and ship it.

If only we had some evidence that reality was different than that.

Oh wait, there's the A330neo.


To be fair, there are also plenty of historical examples of a type receiving a new engine option without a major overhaul to the airframe itself. Those historical examples include both the Boeing 767 (JT9D -> PW4000) and A320 (addition of PW6000).

The A330neo happened to include more scope than just the engine change.
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seabosdca
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Re: Boeing may consider restarting 767 pax model production

Fri Oct 20, 2017 5:00 pm

ssteve wrote:
These might have glass cockpits, but they'll otherwise be -300ERs, if it happens.


I agree -- 767-400ERs would require more extensive/expensive work with suppliers (to restart production of many discontinued parts, including the MLG) and would be harder to finance.

All the people speculating that this might be a revised airplane: the 767-300ER is still on Boeing's price list! (The -400ER is not.) All the parts are in production and an airline could order one tomorrow. The complications for Boeing are not about producing the airplane, they're about increasing production rate so Boeing can deliver lots of frames in a short time.
 
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Polot
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Re: Boeing may consider restarting 767 pax model production

Fri Oct 20, 2017 5:05 pm

DfwRevolution wrote:
To be fair, there are also plenty of historical examples of a type receiving a new engine option without a major overhaul to the airframe itself. Those historical examples include both the Boeing 767 (JT9D -> PW4000) and A320 (addition of PW6000).

Those occurred much earlier in the program's life, or in the case of the PW6000 was suppose to be the (only, iirc) engine for a new variant.
 
bigjku
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Re: Boeing may consider restarting 767 pax model production

Fri Oct 20, 2017 5:09 pm

WaywardMemphian wrote:
This sounds like the same ol' same ol' 767. It also seems to suggest that this is a stop gap till the 797 in 2025. It seems to suggest the 797 is a go. If this is a stop gap plane for a 797 buyer, what becomes of fairly new 767s? Conversions to freighters for Amazon? Could this be a packaged deal like that?


That is what I would figure.

Any new buyer wants to know they have something to do with them. If you have a purchase deal with Amazon/FedEx lined up you can buy them for 7-10 years and phase them out as you roll 797 into the mix. Everyone gets what they want.

Your end freight operator gets cheaper planes with reasonable hours on them.

The airline gets new frames on a model not over ranges for their mission set and a way out of it.

Boeing sells some old and new planes as part of the deal as I would guess this is directly tied to a 797 order.
 
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Polot
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Re: Boeing may consider restarting 767 pax model production

Fri Oct 20, 2017 5:15 pm

bigjku wrote:
Any new buyer wants to know they have something to do with them. If you have a purchase deal with Amazon/FedEx lined up you can buy them for 7-10 years and phase them out as you roll 797 into the mix. Everyone gets what they want.

Yup, or you strike a deal with Boeing where you lease from them and Boeing assumes the resale risk (who knows what the 767F freighter market will be like in 10-15 years). Win win for everyone. Boeing gets additional sales and profit from the 767 line, pax airline gets fresh new planes cheaply and can sell current 767s for conversion now while market is hot, Cargo airlines get fresh 767 feedstock soon and more (and even newer) feedstock later down the road when airline dumps new 767s for MoM or whatever.
 
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usxguy
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Re: Boeing may consider restarting 767 pax model production

Fri Oct 20, 2017 5:16 pm

Has Boeing made any significant changes to the current build 767-300 frame compared to the ones ordered by AA, DL, UA, etc?

I'd think some blending of 764 technology into the 763 for a pax run wouldn't be all that hard, especially if they want a 2019/2020 delivery slot.
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32andBelow
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Re: Boeing may consider restarting 767 pax model production

Fri Oct 20, 2017 5:21 pm

usxguy wrote:
Has Boeing made any significant changes to the current build 767-300 frame compared to the ones ordered by AA, DL, UA, etc?

I'd think some blending of 764 technology into the 763 for a pax run wouldn't be all that hard, especially if they want a 2019/2020 delivery slot.

Isn't the 767-400 wing raked requiring a much larger parking spot?
 
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KarelXWB
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Re: Boeing may consider restarting 767 pax model production

Fri Oct 20, 2017 5:23 pm

Polot wrote:
bigjku wrote:
Any new buyer wants to know they have something to do with them. If you have a purchase deal with Amazon/FedEx lined up you can buy them for 7-10 years and phase them out as you roll 797 into the mix. Everyone gets what they want.

Yup, or you strike a deal with Boeing where you lease from them and Boeing assumes the resale risk (who knows what the 767F freighter market will be like in 10-15 years). Win win for everyone. Boeing gets additional sales and profit from the 767 line, pax airline gets fresh new planes cheaply and can sell current 767s for conversion now while market is hot, Cargo airlines get fresh 767 feedstock soon and more (and even newer) feedstock later down the road when airline dumps new 767s for MoM or whatever.


What other lessors would finance brand new 767-300ER aircraft? It's difficult to imagine a 767 passenger aircraft will have a high resale value in 2030.
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Stitch
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Re: Boeing may consider restarting 767 pax model production

Fri Oct 20, 2017 5:24 pm

flyabr wrote:
I read that at one point Boeing proposed a 764ERX with GP7000 powerplants. Would that option be better than the GENx weight-wise, and better than CF6 or PW4000 engines economically?


The GP71xx series proposed for the 767-400ERX and 747-500X/747-600X was a fairly smaller engine than the GP72xx series for the A380-800 with a fan diameter between 91-99" compared to 116".




As VetteDude pointed out, too many people in this thread just read the title and not the actual articles and are jumping to conclusions so not in evidence that they would be held in Contempt of Court if they were lawyers arguing a case.

These articles are quite clear - a major 767 passenger frame operator has approached Boeing with an RFP for upwards of 60 frames.

The 767 line is already at 2.5 frames per month and I know it can scale to at least three a month so they can add another 6 frames a year to the production list within a year or so. If they land a 60 frame order from UA, that's a decade before someone else can get a plane. How do folks expect Boeing to convince a customer to buy a 767 - even a 767 MAX - when their first delivery date would be the nearside of 2030?

That alone is proof enough that Boeing is not trying to restart 767 production and shopping it as a response to the A330-800 nor do they intend to "MAX" it to turn it into a direct competitor to the model.
 
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scbriml
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Re: Boeing may consider restarting 767 pax model production

Fri Oct 20, 2017 5:24 pm

Revelation wrote:
There is no engine, no time, and no business case for a 767 MAX.

The article that started this thread says:

Boeing is nearing a decision whether to restart the 767-300ER passenger line, LNC has learned.

The 767-300ER, not any hypothetical 767 MAX !!!


There's always a miserable bugger who wants to throw cold water on the fun! :wink2: 90%* of this thread is complete fantasy.

The only way I can see airlines buying 'old school' 763s is if they need the capacity and Boeing is going to sell them dirt cheap (because the 787 is too expensive). If Boeing makes any changes to the 767, they can't sell them dirt cheap.


* 87.63% of all statistics are made up on the spot!
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Polot
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Re: Boeing may consider restarting 767 pax model production

Fri Oct 20, 2017 5:30 pm

KarelXWB wrote:
What other lessors would finance brand new 767-300ER aircraft? It's difficult to imagine a 767 passenger aircraft will have a high resale value in 2030.

I don't think it will have super high resale value, but I think everyone is banking on the 767 conversions still being popular (even if just to replace older 767Fs). With Fedex and Amazon amassing huge fleets 767Fs will still be common in 2030.
 
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KarelXWB
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Re: Boeing may consider restarting 767 pax model production

Fri Oct 20, 2017 5:32 pm

Stitch wrote:

As VetteDude pointed out, too many people in this thread just read the title and not the actual articles and are jumping to conclusions so not in evidence that they would be held in Contempt of Court if they were lawyers arguing a case.


I wonder where this 767 MAX idea is coming from in the first place? Boeing never talked about such upgrade.
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Stitch
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Re: Boeing may consider restarting 767 pax model production

Fri Oct 20, 2017 5:36 pm

KarelXWB wrote:
Stitch wrote:

As VetteDude pointed out, too many people in this thread just read the title and not the actual articles and are jumping to conclusions so not in evidence that they would be held in Contempt of Court if they were lawyers arguing a case.


I wonder where this 767 MAX idea is coming from in the first place? Boeing never talked about such upgrade.


As I noted - people are reading the thread title that Boeing is considering restarting 767 passenger production and then immediately posting without bothering to read the two articles that explain why Boeing is considering it. Hence all the silliness about "Boeing did this to spoil the A330-900 first flight" and "Boeing is insane trying to market a hundred-year old design to airlines" and "MOM has clearly found no market interest so they have to MAX the 767 as an emergency fall-back plan" and completely missing the actual reason Boeing is considering restarting production. :banghead:
 
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Revelation
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Re: Boeing may consider restarting 767 pax model production

Fri Oct 20, 2017 5:48 pm

Stitch wrote:
As I noted - people are reading the thread title that Boeing is considering restarting 767 passenger production and then immediately posting without bothering to read the two articles that explain why Boeing is considering it. Hence all the silliness about "Boeing did this to spoil the A330-900 first flight" and "Boeing is insane trying to market a hundred-year old design to airlines" and "MOM has clearly found no market interest so they have to MAX the 767 as an emergency fall-back plan" and completely missing the actual reason Boeing is considering restarting production. :banghead:

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