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EarlyLateORD
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Re: Boeing may consider restarting 767 pax model production

Fri Oct 20, 2017 5:49 pm

The 767-300ER's that are used by United are AA are worn out messes. The ex Continental 767-400ER's are nice. AA redid the biz cabin on their 767's but the coach area is still the same. I could honestly see a quick order for replacement. The last two UA 767 trips were horrid. Dirty planes, rude crew, dated interior.

I've ridden on LAN/LATAM's newer 767's and they are so much nicer.

The 767 has some advantages for a flyer. Pairs of seats on the sides, which are preferred by traveling couples, like the A330/340. As a couple with one child, the center 3 seats are great. Each parents has aisle access. I flew on Austrian's refreshed 767's and Icelander's versions this year as well as the AA 767 biz cabin. I just don't seen the future how you do transatlantic without the 767/A330. The 777 is too big, the 757 is too small, the 787 has too much range.

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bigjku
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Re: Boeing may consider restarting 767 pax model production

Fri Oct 20, 2017 5:51 pm

KarelXWB wrote:
Stitch wrote:

As VetteDude pointed out, too many people in this thread just read the title and not the actual articles and are jumping to conclusions so not in evidence that they would be held in Contempt of Court if they were lawyers arguing a case.


I wonder where this 767 MAX idea is coming from in the first place? Boeing never talked about such upgrade.


Most here are airplanes enthusiast not money making enthusiast. The business case would be what a few laid out already.

It’s a cheap airplane that could be had in short order for airlines which a new MOM airplane would be ideal. It has an active freight and freighter conversion market Those airlines don’t want A330/50 or 787 because they are too much airplane for what they want to do.

It’s either a reasonable risk for Boeing to take that they can find a conversion customer when 797’s start rolling out or they be able to retire that risk well before then if agreements are specific enough. We would have to see how tied together it all is in the end. If we see large 797 launch orders from the same it would make sense. If we see Amazon and FedEx signing up for conversions after that period then it’s all tied up.

To me it makes sense for Amazon and FedEx to jump on them now and take the risk out for everyone. These would be the lowest hour 767 conversions they are likely to find and the 767 is the perfect platform for them. They can run them forever as the USAF will have a support infrastructure in place for roughly 132 years based on how long the KC-135’s have been around.

People here are emoting because they like shiny new things and aren’t responsible for turning a profit keeping people employed or protecting investors investments. They like to worry about Boeing’s product line when the bottom line is what ultimately matters.

Now to preempt I do think they have to be right about the 797. It can’t flop or they may be faced with too many holes to fill in too short of time going forward.
 
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OneSexyL1011
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Re: Boeing may consider restarting 767 pax model production

Fri Oct 20, 2017 5:53 pm

Oh man, the possibilities! Can just be a reprint of the original model or they can add any combination of upgrades to the -300. I would see UA jumping on this ASAP as we really, really love the 763/4. Its our most liked aircraft by passengers in the fleet. (yes, above the 787)
 
many321
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Re: Boeing may consider restarting 767 pax model production

Fri Oct 20, 2017 6:00 pm

Boeing should focus on NSA Instead of this, unless they want Airbus to take their lunch also.
 
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par13del
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Re: Boeing may consider restarting 767 pax model production

Fri Oct 20, 2017 6:03 pm

KarelXWB wrote:
If there is so much demand for the pax version, why did Boeing not sell them years earlier?

...because markets evolve and client needs can change. If the 757 was still available for sale, would it have captured any of the orders that the A321-NEO/ULR/LR etc etc etc are presently getting?
If the 757 was still in production, now that the market is evolving, would Boeing have a financial case to do a 757-MAX / NEO?

The 767 is still in production due to the freighter and what was the potential of a tanker contract, frames were sold as compensation for the 787 debacle, so if someone wants a stop gap a/c now what do you suggest Boeing do, refer them to Airbus and the A330-XXX?
If the potential client does not know that Boeing does not have a MOM, 797 or A330-XXX in stock they must have been living under a rock for the past century.
 
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Revelation
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Re: Boeing may consider restarting 767 pax model production

Fri Oct 20, 2017 6:05 pm

bigjku wrote:
It’s a cheap airplane that could be had in short order for airlines which a new MOM airplane would be ideal.

But, none of this is true, therefore the rest of your post is off target.

If you don't believe me, take a look at the time, money and other resources it's taking Airbus to get the A330NEO out the door, and that's starting with a passenger airplane that was still quite popular and whose vendors were/are still running at full speed and not for a program that is almost fully committed to cranking out freighters at the same time.
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bigjku
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Re: Boeing may consider restarting 767 pax model production

Fri Oct 20, 2017 6:09 pm

Revelation wrote:
bigjku wrote:
It’s a cheap airplane that could be had in short order for airlines which a new MOM airplane would be ideal.

But, none of this is true, therefore the rest of your post is off target.

If you don't believe me, take a look at the time, money and other resources it's taking Airbus to get the A330NEO out the door, and that's starting with a passenger airplane that was still quite popular and whose vendors were/are still running at full speed and not for a program that is almost fully committed to cranking out freighters at the same time.


I am not advocating for a re-engine. I mean just making some passenger models of the existing design.

To be 100% clear I am with you. I see no business case for extensive work here. If you can sell some and spin it into a 797 order in particular it makes lots of sense.
 
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par13del
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Re: Boeing may consider restarting 767 pax model production

Fri Oct 20, 2017 6:09 pm

Revelation wrote:
But, none of this is true, therefore the rest of your post is off target.

If you don't believe me, take a look at the time, money and other resources it's taking Airbus to get the A330NEO out the door, and that's starting with a passenger airplane that was still quite popular and whose vendors were/are still running at full speed and not for a program that is almost fully committed to cranking out freighters at the same time.

If I read his post correctly and he is talking about building 767's then yes, it is cheap and unless infrastructure in Washington is not constrained, they should be had cheap and in short order.

If he is talking about a MAX or NEO as Airbus is doing on the A330, then no, but going back to the original thought, when Boeing had issues with the 787, Airbus were able to ramp up production of the A330 in short order, that would be my comparison.
 
CX747
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Re: Boeing may consider restarting 767 pax model production

Fri Oct 20, 2017 6:26 pm

I'm glad to see that Boeing is being creative in their approach to winning aircraft deals. A major customer wants +50 767-300ERs in what seems to be an interim measure until the 797 arrives. This is a no brainer for Boeing as the line is still running.

All the talk about a 767MAX just shows how little people on this forum actually read the news articles, understand the industry and pay attention to what is going on.
"History does not long entrust the care of freedom to the weak or timid." D. Eisenhower
 
LAXLHR
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Re: Boeing may consider restarting 767 pax model production

Fri Oct 20, 2017 6:30 pm

I think this is sad. We are just going backwards even further, this is insane. Concorde is gone, no replacement... now going back to the 767? Perhaps Boeing should just roll out the 737-200 and 707 to compete with Airbus, because clearly in some sectors it cannot.

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Stitch
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Re: Boeing may consider restarting 767 pax model production

Fri Oct 20, 2017 6:51 pm

many321 wrote:
Boeing should focus on NSA Instead of this, unless they want Airbus to take their lunch also.


NSA is at least as far down the road as MoM is and MAX is selling even more strongly than the 737NG did. We also have to take into account that the airlines have invested significantly into both MAX and the neo and are going to be decades away from wanting to orders thousands of NSAs (and whatever Airbus comes up with as an A320 family replacement).

bigjku wrote:
I see no business case for extensive work here. If you can sell some and spin it into a 797 order in particular it makes lots of sense.


Again, Boeing isn't the one trying to sell 767s to airlines (as a bridge to MoM). It's the airlines asking Boeing to sell them 767s (perhaps as a bridge to MoM or just as a replacement for 767s nearing retirement age).


LAXLHR wrote:
I think this is sad. We are just going backwards even further, this is insane. Concorde is gone, no replacement... now going back to the 767? Perhaps Boeing should just roll out the 737-200 and 707 to compete with Airbus, because clearly in some sectors it cannot.


If you are going to blame anyway for having a lack of vision, blame the airline asking Boeing to build them up to 60 of the damn things.


And for all those claiming Boeing is going to "give" these frames away, Boeing is going to incur a fair bit of costs making this happen so they're going to make sure the customer covers those costs and cover them early (to ensure they can't cancel down the road and leave Boeing holding the bag). So I would not be surprised if the first frames are very expensive and once Boeing has recovered the costs, future deliveries see escalated price reductions (as opposed to the usual pattern of starting cheap and getting more expensive over the delivery period).
 
jeffrey0032j
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Re: Boeing may consider restarting 767 pax model production

Fri Oct 20, 2017 7:04 pm

More feedstock for Amazon and friends 10 to 15 years down the road.
 
VetteDude
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Re: Boeing may consider restarting 767 pax model production

Fri Oct 20, 2017 7:05 pm

Now we have people crying about the Concorde being gone. Yep, the flying death trap that had 4 turbojets and injected raw fuel into the exhaust. What an efficient, practical, money-printing aircraft.

There is nothing wrong with updating existing designs. In fact, it's a very smart thing to do. Boeing's job isn't to be a visionary unless being a visionary is going to be a good business move. I'm sorry, but right now the most practical passenger airplane design is a low wing, twin high-bypass engine, conventional tail, tricycle landing gear design with 1 or 2 aisles piloted by 2 individuals flying below Mach 1. And with oil at $50 a barrel instead of $140, the business case shifts a lot more from the 787 (which gathered the bulk of its orders in a high oil price environment) towards the older, cheaper, 767. That being said, the 763 is not going to be a hot seller ever again, and there is no reason to get upset if someone orders a few more per these rumors.
 
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767333ER
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Re: Boeing may consider restarting 767 pax model production

Fri Oct 20, 2017 7:06 pm

KarelXWB wrote:
Stitch wrote:

As VetteDude pointed out, too many people in this thread just read the title and not the actual articles and are jumping to conclusions so not in evidence that they would be held in Contempt of Court if they were lawyers arguing a case.


I wonder where this 767 MAX idea is coming from in the first place? Boeing never talked about such upgrade.
CX747 wrote:
I'm glad to see that Boeing is being creative in their approach to winning aircraft deals. A major customer wants +50 767-300ERs in what seems to be an interim measure until the 797 arrives. This is a no brainer for Boeing as the line is still running.

All the talk about a 767MAX just shows how little people on this forum actually read the news articles, understand the industry and pay attention to what is going on.

Excerpt from https://www.bizjournals.com/seattle/news/2017/10/19/boeing-767-production-increase-everett-united.html:
The 767 might even be modernized with composite wings and new engines to improve fuel efficiency and lower operating costs, the sources said.

If you scroll to the bottom of the article and click the “show full article”you will get much more content including this excerpt I included that suggests the possibility of a “767 MAX”. This is mostly where the idea is coming from and if you had actually read the full article CX747 you would realize that.

If I were to bet on such a thing I would bet against it ever happening myself and I cannot of vouch for the credibility of bizjournals and obviously cannot for their sources either, but they said it before I ever did, I can’t speak for others though. I was the one that also thought the 737 was going to be done after the NG, but we see hw that turned out. Different case of course, but I wouldn’t be terribly surprised if they did try such a thing here.
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sagechan
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Re: Boeing may consider restarting 767 pax model production

Fri Oct 20, 2017 7:11 pm

The one update a new build 767 might receive would be a cabin update, how much effort would boeing need to put into updating the lighting & overheads to newest standards?
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Stitch
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Re: Boeing may consider restarting 767 pax model production

Fri Oct 20, 2017 7:13 pm

767333ER wrote:
Excerpt from https://www.bizjournals.com/seattle/news/2017/10/19/boeing-767-production-increase-everett-united.html:
The 767 might even be modernized with composite wings and new engines to improve fuel efficiency and lower operating costs, the sources said.

If you scroll to the bottom of the article and click the “show full article”you will get much more content including this excerpt I included that suggests the possibility of a “767 MAX”. This is mostly where the idea is coming from and if you had actually read the full article CX747 you would realize that.


That's pretty clearly random speculation by the article author - maybe they were reading this forum before they wrote it. :biggrin:

Seriously, Leeham broke the news and they're clear it's something UA approached Boeing about. And FlightGlobal noted UA has been investigating options for their 767 replacement since the beginning of the year. And we know from other reports that UA appears to be very keen about the MoM. So buying "stock" 767-300ERs as a bridge to cover 767 retirement replacements and expansion until MoM is in full production makes sense. We also need to remember that UA is a large 787 customer/operator already and if they really wanted a long-range fuel-efficient frame (which a 767-3 MAX with new wings and engines would be), they would just order more 787-8s.
Last edited by Stitch on Fri Oct 20, 2017 7:17 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
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Stitch
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Re: Boeing may consider restarting 767 pax model production

Fri Oct 20, 2017 7:16 pm

sagechan wrote:
The one update a new build 767 might receive would be a cabin update, how much effort would boeing need to put into updating the lighting & overheads to newest standards?


The current 767 Signature Interior (based on the 777's) is pretty nice as-is. Don't see a compelling need to update it to 787 standards.
 
sagechan
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Re: Boeing may consider restarting 767 pax model production

Fri Oct 20, 2017 7:27 pm

Stitch wrote:
sagechan wrote:
The one update a new build 767 might receive would be a cabin update, how much effort would boeing need to put into updating the lighting & overheads to newest standards?


The current 767 Signature Interior (based on the 777's) is pretty nice as-is. Don't see a compelling need to update it to 787 standards.


Good to know, I wasn't sure how updated those later built interiors were.
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2175301
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Re: Boeing may consider restarting 767 pax model production

Fri Oct 20, 2017 7:33 pm

scbriml wrote:
Revelation wrote:
There is no engine, no time, and no business case for a 767 MAX.

The article that started this thread says:

Boeing is nearing a decision whether to restart the 767-300ER passenger line, LNC has learned.

The 767-300ER, not any hypothetical 767 MAX !!!


There's always a miserable bugger who wants to throw cold water on the fun! :wink2: 90%* of this thread is complete fantasy.

The only way I can see airlines buying 'old school' 763s is if they need the capacity and Boeing is going to sell them dirt cheap (because the 787 is too expensive). If Boeing makes any changes to the 767, they can't sell them dirt cheap.


* 87.63% of all statistics are made up on the spot!


I disagree in two regards...

1) A new glass cockpit is likely a savings over restarting production of the old stuff, and a new interior may be essentially a zero dollar option for similar reasons. At a minimum I expect to see a glass cockpit.

2) You are incorrect on your statistics number. It's 87.63218754329852065430867.... it's an irrational number and goes on forever - just like you and me... ;)

I agree that wings and engines would cost real money and take real time... Winglets might be an option... They would be very easy to add without affecting production schedules and may make financial sense for the airline.

Have a great day,
 
Miquel787
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Re: Boeing may consider restarting 767 pax model production

Fri Oct 20, 2017 7:42 pm

Boeing thinks about producing the 767-300ER again because they can sell 50 or 60 to probably UA..For a good price and with low fuel prices a good deal..In basic the 767-300ER is a very good plane..There is no time for a new wing and new engines..And to expensive if they only talk about 50 or 60 frames..Boeing will finetune it a little,some PIP,s and that,s it..So no 767MAX and no GenX engines. I.m not a rocketscientist but plain and simple thinking. The 797 Mom will come in the future but till then the 767 will still going strong,no doubt about it and if UA needs that airplane then Boeing will give it to them.
 
QXAS
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Re: Boeing may consider restarting 767 pax model production

Fri Oct 20, 2017 7:45 pm

The only upgrades I see happening would be a new wingtip (e.g. Scimitar (what UA is mounting on the 757), split scimitar, or ATW (MAX wingtip). Something that would be easy to certify that can make the aircraft a bit more competitive for the airline interested. I could also see an updated cockpit to 777/787 standard. But that is it, these will be 767-300ERs rolling out of Everett, not 767-8s. It's largely accepted that it's UA who's interested however I could see AA being interested and I wouldn't be surprised to see AC jump onboard with an order for Rouge. That's up to 100 orders. I do not see DL ordering a Boeing widebody period. Not much for today's market but certainly a good last hurrah for an airplane beloved by passengers. Nobody who flys in Y should be upset by this news. In terms of exit configurations I thouroughly expect 4 doors (2 front 2 rear) and 4 overwing exits.
I am NOT an employee of any airline or manufacturer. I speak for myself, not on the behalf of any company.
 
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Stitch
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Re: Boeing may consider restarting 767 pax model production

Fri Oct 20, 2017 7:57 pm

2175301 wrote:
[1) A new glass cockpit is likely a savings over restarting production of the old stuff, and a new interior may be essentially a zero dollar option for similar reasons. At a minimum I expect to see a glass cockpit.


There is an after-market three-panel glass cockpit offered by Rockwell-Collins for the 767 similar to the one they make (as standard) for the 787 and 737MAX. The first FX 767's delivered had the older six-CRT display cockpit and were then upgraded with the new cockpit. I am assuming new-builds are coming off the line with the new cockpit already installed, though a WSJ article from 2015 implies that the planes are delivered with the six CRT cockpit and then modified with the R-C system post-delivery.

QXAS wrote:
The only upgrades I see happening would be a new wingtip (e.g. Scimitar (what UA is mounting on the 757), split scimitar, or ATW (MAX wingtip). Something that would be easy to certify that can make the aircraft a bit more competitive for the airline interested.


UA's existing 767s already have Aviation Partners Boeing winglets so I would expect they would order them for these new birds, as well.
Last edited by Stitch on Fri Oct 20, 2017 7:59 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
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seahawk
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Re: Boeing may consider restarting 767 pax model production

Fri Oct 20, 2017 7:58 pm

Any up-date will make the frames more expensive, which kind of makes the idea even more difficult. The price must be so low, that you will have no problems to write them off by 2030. Anybody betting on a longer usage period is very brave, or very stupid if fuel becomes expensive gain.

The funny thing is that the more attractive new 767s are, the less attractive is the idea of a MoM.
 
cledaybuck
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Re: Boeing may consider restarting 767 pax model production

Fri Oct 20, 2017 8:00 pm

Stitch wrote:
767333ER wrote:
Excerpt from https://www.bizjournals.com/seattle/news/2017/10/19/boeing-767-production-increase-everett-united.html:
The 767 might even be modernized with composite wings and new engines to improve fuel efficiency and lower operating costs, the sources said.

If you scroll to the bottom of the article and click the “show full article”you will get much more content including this excerpt I included that suggests the possibility of a “767 MAX”. This is mostly where the idea is coming from and if you had actually read the full article CX747 you would realize that.


That's pretty clearly random speculation by the article author - maybe they were reading this forum before they wrote it. :biggrin:

Seriously, Leeham broke the news and they're clear it's something UA approached Boeing about. And FlightGlobal noted UA has been investigating options for their 767 replacement since the beginning of the year. And we know from other reports that UA appears to be very keen about the MoM. So buying "stock" 767-300ERs as a bridge to cover 767 retirement replacements and expansion until MoM is in full production makes sense. We also need to remember that UA is a large 787 customer/operator already and if they really wanted a long-range fuel-efficient frame (which a 767-3 MAX with new wings and engines would be), they would just order more 787-8s.
I don't see anywhere where they say it is UA (unless you are taking the picture as a hint).
 
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Stitch
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Re: Boeing may consider restarting 767 pax model production

Fri Oct 20, 2017 8:05 pm

cledaybuck wrote:
I don't see anywhere where they say it is UA (unless you are taking the picture as a hint).


Okay, fair point, but United's CEO is on-record saying they have been reviewing 767 replacement plans and they are said to be excited about MoM. The next most-likely option would be American (probably in conjunction with United) as they have been claimed to be talking to both Airbus and Boeing about a 767 replacement. As a dark horse candidate I would throw Delta in there since their A330-900 order is likely too large for the 767 replacement on routes that cannot be effectively served with multiple A321-200 frequencies and with their (current) pass on the 787, that leaves new 767s or A330-800s (which may also be too large). Delta is also not afraid to buy "end-of-life" frames on good terms (737-900ERs) so while I don't see them going it alone, if they can work what they feel is a good deal in conjunction with UA and/or AA...
 
QXAS
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Re: Boeing may consider restarting 767 pax model production

Fri Oct 20, 2017 8:06 pm

Stitch wrote:

QXAS wrote:
The only upgrades I see happening would be a new wingtip (e.g. Scimitar (what UA is mounting on the 757), split scimitar, or ATW (MAX wingtip). Something that would be easy to certify that can make the aircraft a bit more competitive for the airline interested.


UA's existing 767s already have Aviation Partners Boeing winglets so I would expect they would order them for these new birds, as well.


They have the blended winglets. However they don't have scimitars/ split scimitars like on the 75 and 73. I'm curious as to how difficult/ expensive it would be to upscale the more modern winglets for the 767 for added efficiency.
I am NOT an employee of any airline or manufacturer. I speak for myself, not on the behalf of any company.
 
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Stitch
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Re: Boeing may consider restarting 767 pax model production

Fri Oct 20, 2017 8:08 pm

QXAS wrote:
They have the blended winglets. However they don't have scimitars/ split scimitars like on the 75 and 73. I'm curious as to how difficult/ expensive it would be to upscale the more modern winglets for the 767 for added efficiency.


Aviation Partners Boeing were looking into scimitar winglets for the 757 and 767 over two years ago, but never went forward with them so I am guessing the market was not there.
 
jbs2886
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Re: Boeing may consider restarting 767 pax model production

Fri Oct 20, 2017 8:18 pm

Some posters mentioned above that this is potential feedstock for Freighter conversions. I think this is a great point, especially considering they may only be 10 years in operation as a passenger jet. This basically gives freighter carriers pretty new planes at a much lower price than a new 767F (and there aren't many used 767s left that are suitable) while at the same time providing lift for passenger carriers and preserving the value. Most end of line jets aren't popular because their value is questionable long0term. If, here, Boeing says leases/buys back after 10 years to convert to a freighter and then leases/sells to freight carriers, there is value that would otherwise not be there. It is an interesting win (passenger airline) - win (Boeing) - win (freight airline) (plus I find 7 across very comfortable, so a passenger win from my point of view).
 
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Stitch
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Re: Boeing may consider restarting 767 pax model production

Fri Oct 20, 2017 8:25 pm

jbs2886 wrote:
Some posters mentioned above that this is potential feedstock for Freighter conversions. I think this is a great point, especially considering they may only be 10 years in operation as a passenger jet.


For an order this large, I expect that the customers are one, two or all three of the US3 (AA, DL, UA) and they tend to hold on to frames for their entire useful lives (20+ years). So I don't really see them being ordered with the expectation that they would "quickly" become freighter feed-stock (plus Boeing would prefer to sell new 767-300Fs).

Plus Atlas has been looking to A330P2Fs or buying new-build 767 freighters because passenger 767 feed stock is starting to dry up and they lack the capacity to meet all potential demand (so they have been turning down potential contracts).
 
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lightsaber
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Re: Boeing may consider restarting 767 pax model production

Fri Oct 20, 2017 8:27 pm

zhiao wrote:
The fact is that both these companies have only 2 models which are selling.

Sad but true fact. Only the A350, A320NEO, MAX, and 787. I have hope for the 777X. Should I admit I thought the A380 would do far better than it did?
Lightsaber
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jbs2886
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Re: Boeing may consider restarting 767 pax model production

Fri Oct 20, 2017 8:33 pm

Stitch wrote:
jbs2886 wrote:
Some posters mentioned above that this is potential feedstock for Freighter conversions. I think this is a great point, especially considering they may only be 10 years in operation as a passenger jet.


For an order this large, I expect that the customers are one, two or all three of the US3 (AA, DL, UA) and they tend to hold on to frames for their entire useful lives (20+ years). So I don't really see them being ordered with the expectation that they would "quickly" become freighter feed-stock (plus Boeing would prefer to sell new 767-300Fs). Plus the Puget Sound Business Journal ran an article in March about Atlas and ATSG buying new-build 767s for the Amazon fleet.


I agree they normally do, but I don't think its out of the question for a unique transaction to be made to bridge to the MOM.
 
bigjku
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Re: Boeing may consider restarting 767 pax model production

Fri Oct 20, 2017 8:43 pm

jbs2886 wrote:
Stitch wrote:
jbs2886 wrote:
Some posters mentioned above that this is potential feedstock for Freighter conversions. I think this is a great point, especially considering they may only be 10 years in operation as a passenger jet.


For an order this large, I expect that the customers are one, two or all three of the US3 (AA, DL, UA) and they tend to hold on to frames for their entire useful lives (20+ years). So I don't really see them being ordered with the expectation that they would "quickly" become freighter feed-stock (plus Boeing would prefer to sell new 767-300Fs). Plus the Puget Sound Business Journal ran an article in March about Atlas and ATSG buying new-build 767s for the Amazon fleet.


I agree they normally do, but I don't think its out of the question for a unique transaction to be made to bridge to the MOM.


If I am the carrier I at least want the option to bail out if fuel cost go up. I agree with this likely being a bridge to MOM.
 
jbs2886
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Re: Boeing may consider restarting 767 pax model production

Fri Oct 20, 2017 8:50 pm

bigjku wrote:
jbs2886 wrote:
Stitch wrote:

For an order this large, I expect that the customers are one, two or all three of the US3 (AA, DL, UA) and they tend to hold on to frames for their entire useful lives (20+ years). So I don't really see them being ordered with the expectation that they would "quickly" become freighter feed-stock (plus Boeing would prefer to sell new 767-300Fs). Plus the Puget Sound Business Journal ran an article in March about Atlas and ATSG buying new-build 767s for the Amazon fleet.


I agree they normally do, but I don't think its out of the question for a unique transaction to be made to bridge to the MOM.


If I am the carrier I at least want the option to bail out if fuel cost go up. I agree with this likely being a bridge to MOM.


IMO, the MOM is going to be a popular plane in the US, both domestically, TATL and some Latin America. I think you also raise a good point re: fuel; no matter what, the 767 won't be as efficient, even if "MAX'd" - that efficiency isn't as important to cargo carriers.

I mean, didn't Boeing offer leasing 772LRs to DL while they wait for 787s? Of course, Delta said no, but maybe UA likes that idea or other carriers.
 
JamesCousins
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Re: Boeing may consider restarting 767 pax model production

Fri Oct 20, 2017 8:52 pm

subramak1 wrote:
717atOGG wrote:
I personally think a 767 MAX would do very well. If Boeing reengines the 763, redesigns the wing and cockpit, and uses some cabin design ideas from the 787, they'd have a very competitive product. Sure, the 767 design is 40 years old, but I think it's still sufficient in this day and age, and it'd be a good stopgap MOM.


If you have a new engine, new wing, new cockpit wont you call it a new plane :-)

Subu


Yeah that's hardly a years work, and if this does come to fruition it needs to be before Airbus announce anything....
Q400, A320-200, A321-200, 737-500, 737-800, 747-400, 757-200, 787-9 // FCA, TOM, MON, MT, BA, VS, DL, BE
 
14ccKemiskt
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Re: Boeing may consider restarting 767 pax model production

Fri Oct 20, 2017 9:24 pm

seahawk wrote:
Any up-date will make the frames more expensive, which kind of makes the idea even more difficult. The price must be so low, that you will have no problems to write them off by 2030. Anybody betting on a longer usage period is very brave, or very stupid if fuel becomes expensive gain.

The funny thing is that the more attractive new 767s are, the less attractive is the idea of a MoM.


Yup. And let's say that 6 months after a 767 Updated is launched, Airbus launches the A322 and the business case for the MoM could be completely dead.
 
c933103
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Re: Boeing may consider restarting 767 pax model production

Fri Oct 20, 2017 9:31 pm

I wonder how much will Boeing sold each aircraft at, compare to the price of regular 788 and compare to the price of 767 they sold a few years ago due to delay in 787 program.
And is it really that undesirable to make more 788 instead?
This is a placeholder.
 
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Stitch
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Re: Boeing may consider restarting 767 pax model production

Fri Oct 20, 2017 10:04 pm

c933103 wrote:
I wonder how much will Boeing sold each aircraft at, compare to the price of regular 788 and compare to the price of 767 they sold a few years ago due to delay in 787 program. And is it really that undesirable to make more 788 instead?


I fully expect the 767s will be cheaper than the 787s, but as I noted above, Boeing will incur costs in restarting production and I would not be surprised if they front-load those costs on the first frames to recover them and then offer later deliveries are more substantial discounts. So I do not see this as Boeing offering them for significant discounts off what they are pricing FX's 767-300Fs, for example.
 
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KarelXWB
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Re: Boeing may consider restarting 767 pax model production

Fri Oct 20, 2017 10:12 pm

Stitch wrote:
I fully expect the 767s will be cheaper than the 787s,


Significant cheaper, base on Aircraft Values, And Lease Pricing - Spring 2017.
What we leave behind is not as important as how we've lived.
 
SCAT15F
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Re: Boeing may consider restarting 767 pax model production

Fri Oct 20, 2017 10:13 pm

If the're talking MOM stopgap, then they should be producing the 767-200, not the 300ER and not the 200ER. 200ER and 300ER have too much range, carry extra weight and the 300ER is too big for MOM size according to airline desires. Boeing is the one who for some reason wants MOM to be larger than what the airlines are asking for.
 
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ikolkyo
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Re: Boeing may consider restarting 767 pax model production

Fri Oct 20, 2017 10:19 pm

SCAT15F wrote:
If the're talking MOM stopgap, then they should be producing the 767-200, not the 300ER and not the 200ER. 200ER and 300ER have too much range, carry extra weight and the 300ER is too big for MOM size according to airline desires. Boeing is the one who for some reason wants MOM to be larger than what the airlines are asking for.


The -200 has been out of production for decades, plus if the -200 was an idea MOM aircraft it would still be around today and it clearly isn't. How is the -300ER too big? Delta's -300ERs seat between 211-226 passengers depending on the configuration, UA's aircraft will seat 214 once the 3 class birds are all reconfigured and AA's fleet will be at 209 once the older aircraft are retired.
 
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Stitch
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Re: Boeing may consider restarting 767 pax model production

Fri Oct 20, 2017 10:19 pm

SCAT15F wrote:
If the're talking MOM stopgap, then they should be producing the 767-200, not the 300ER and not the 200ER. 200ER and 300ER have too much range, carry extra weight and the 300ER is too big for MOM size according to airline desires. Boeing is the one who for some reason wants MOM to be larger than what the airlines are asking for.


The 767-200ER has not been offered for some time and while it is the basis for the 767-2C freighter (which itself is the basis for the KC-46A Pegasus),that frame is completely unsuitable for passenger conversion.

And the weight difference between a 767-300 and 767-300ER is around 3000kg (and as that is an OEM configuration, the majority is probably the heavier First and Business Class seating the ER is configured in compared to domestic First and Economy on the non-ER).

Also one can configure a 767-300ER with below maximum operating weights (saving purchase and operating costs) if one does not need it to perform at the far-end of the payload-range chart.
 
jbs2886
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Re: Boeing may consider restarting 767 pax model production

Fri Oct 20, 2017 10:20 pm

SCAT15F wrote:
If the're talking MOM stopgap, then they should be producing the 767-200, not the 300ER and not the 200ER. 200ER and 300ER have too much range, carry extra weight and the 300ER is too big for MOM size according to airline desires. Boeing is the one who for some reason wants MOM to be larger than what the airlines are asking for.


What basis do you have that Boeing is ignoring the airlines' demands re: MOM? I highly doubt you have any. Boeing isn't going to spend BILLIONS of dollars on an aircraft that no one wants.

Also, the -200ER is NOT very efficient relative to the -300ER and hasn't been produced for some time (not to mention never sold well in the first place).
 
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767333ER
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Re: Boeing may consider restarting 767 pax model production

Fri Oct 20, 2017 10:46 pm

Stitch wrote:
2175301 wrote:
[1) A new glass cockpit is likely a savings over restarting production of the old stuff, and a new interior may be essentially a zero dollar option for similar reasons. At a minimum I expect to see a glass cockpit.


There is an after-market three-panel glass cockpit offered by Rockwell-Collins for the 767 similar to the one they make (as standard) for the 787 and 737MAX. The first FX 767's delivered had the older six-CRT display cockpit and were then upgraded with the new cockpit. I am assuming new-builds are coming off the line with the new cockpit already installed, though a WSJ article from 2015 implies that the planes are delivered with the six CRT cockpit and then modified with the R-C system post-delivery.

QXAS wrote:
The only upgrades I see happening would be a new wingtip (e.g. Scimitar (what UA is mounting on the 757), split scimitar, or ATW (MAX wingtip). Something that would be easy to certify that can make the aircraft a bit more competitive for the airline interested.


UA's existing 767s already have Aviation Partners Boeing winglets so I would expect they would order them for these new birds, as well.

I believe they are all still build with the CRT cockpit and are swapped out sometime afterwards.

As for singlet upgrades, I am convinced I read about scimitars being worked on for the 767 after the 757. This was during the time it became public that the 757 would get them.
Been on: 732 733 734 73G 738 752 763 A319 A320 A321 CRJ CR7 CRA/CR9 E145 E175 E190 F28 MD-82 MD-83 C172R C172S P2006T
 
bunumuring
Posts: 2531
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Re: Boeing may consider restarting 767 pax model production

Fri Oct 20, 2017 10:47 pm

Hey guys,
I suspect the following airlines would be interested, in order:
1. United
2. American
Then a huge gap to
3. Delta
4. Chinese airlines
With the dark horse being Emirates for their 'small widebody' requirement and possibly some for flyDubai for busier, longer routes than the MAX can handle....
Cheers,
Bunumuring
I just wanna live while I'm alive!
 
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flyingclrs727
Posts: 2300
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Re: Boeing may consider restarting 767 pax model production

Fri Oct 20, 2017 11:52 pm

KarelXWB wrote:
Stitch wrote:

As VetteDude pointed out, too many people in this thread just read the title and not the actual articles and are jumping to conclusions so not in evidence that they would be held in Contempt of Court if they were lawyers arguing a case.


I wonder where this 767 MAX idea is coming from in the first place? Boeing never talked about such upgrade.


The article I quoted suggeted that Boeing might upgrade the engines and make some othe changes.
 
strfyr51
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Re: Boeing may consider restarting 767 pax model production

Sat Oct 21, 2017 12:09 am

jbs2886 wrote:
Seattle Business Journal is reporting that it is United looking to make the order and Boeing has requested suppliers see if they can "urgently" produce the parts by doubling production.

I would assume Boeing would make some upgrades, but who knows if it is going to happen fast.

https://www.bizjournals.com/seattle/new ... nited.html

I can see that because United is not about to buy any new aurbus aside from the A350's ordered by the former CEO Glen Tilton whom it is suspected got prime gratuities from Airbus to buy that airplane.
 
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FoxtrotSierra
Posts: 368
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Re: Boeing may consider restarting 767 pax model production

Sat Oct 21, 2017 12:13 am

VetteDude wrote:
Now we have people crying about the Concorde being gone. Yep, the flying death trap that had 4 turbojets and injected raw fuel into the exhaust. What an efficient, practical, money-printing aircraft.


And this is why we can't have nice things.
 
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FoxtrotSierra
Posts: 368
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Re: Boeing may consider restarting 767 pax model production

Sat Oct 21, 2017 12:19 am

seahawk wrote:
The funny thing is that the more attractive new 767s are, the less attractive is the idea of a MoM.


Yep, Boeing is playing a smart but very dangerous game here. If there isn't some conversion/swap clause written in this thing, that will be one of the stupidest things Boeing has ever done.
 
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FoxtrotSierra
Posts: 368
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Re: Boeing may consider restarting 767 pax model production

Sat Oct 21, 2017 12:47 am

jbs2886 wrote:
IMO, the MOM is going to be a popular plane in the US, both domestically, TATL and some Latin America. I think you also raise a good point re: fuel; no matter what, the 767 won't be as efficient, even if "MAX'd" - that efficiency isn't as important to cargo carriers.


The biggest problem with selling a non 763 today is knowing that you are buying an aircraft that isn't as efficient as technology allows today. It just doesn't make sense to buy new aircraft with the same fuel burn especially considering how long the US3 keep their planes. When the US3 bought the fleet that is flying today, it was the best option at that time. If your goal is to save money on fuel, you just don't buy planes that don't push the needle further, and I think that if UA is going to place a 60+ order, they expect some sort of long-term advantage over the current fleet, with at least marginally improved fuel burn. This "stop gap" is at least 2 decades away and that is the entire lifetime of many planes. I think of this less as a stop gap and more a replacement plan for the current 767's, some of which will definitely become too old to maintain in a decade or so when they will have to be retired, and replaced with the new build 767's. Boeing definitely knows that by putting this option out there, it is cutting into at least some of the 797's overlap with new build 767's. A MoM plane is effectively a 767 replacement and you risk its success if you prolong its predecessor. Obviously a conversion clause would solve this problem, but that will be after at least two decades and that is not a short amount of time in the aviation industry. Yes, its true that 767's are still being built, but cargo carriers don't give a rats ass about fuel efficiency as much airlines do. Airlines are affected by fuel prices way more than FedEx, Amazon, or the USAF are and they have different operating economics. The reason we haven't seen a 767MAX yet is simple: no airlines have ordered any new 767's. If that changes as this rumor suggests, the dynamics of the plane will change as well. An airline places a much higher emphasis on resilience against fuel prices than current customers and I would be very surprised for UA to not make it a condition of the order that Boeing has to improve it's performance in some way. Fuel prices are volatile and different from the way they were when UA bought its original 767's, and while its acceptable to maintain the current state 767's, thats because they were made decades ago. For a new build plane, UA expects advancements in line with an order for any other new model plane, because it is a new plane and future proofing is a smart business decision whichever way you slice it. Designing a new wing would be prohibitively expensive, but I can definitely see an engine upgrade and new winglets for the amount of aircraft UA intends to buy. For everyone saying Boeing doesn't plan on a 767MAX, the article says deliveries start in 2020, that sounds like a 767MAX to me. Boeing has made an all new 767 model with the significantly improved 764 before for just two customers, and we could see something very similar again.
 
bzcat
Posts: 328
Joined: Thu May 29, 2008 11:34 pm

Re: Boeing may consider restarting 767 pax model production

Sat Oct 21, 2017 1:00 am

bunumuring wrote:
Hey guys,
I suspect the following airlines would be interested, in order:
1. United
2. American
Then a huge gap to
3. Delta
4. Chinese airlines
With the dark horse being Emirates for their 'small widebody' requirement and possibly some for flyDubai for busier, longer routes than the MAX can handle....
Cheers,
Bunumuring


Boeing likely can't deliver that many 767-300ER in the timeframe before MoM is available.

United has lots of 767 to replace and no A330 on order so it makes sense for them to ask Boeing for a solution.

AA can probably convert A359 to A338 or A339 and that may take them out of the 767 game. Or maybe not. They are also looking at MoM so they may accept some 767-300ER as interim solution.

Delta seems to be pretty locked in on A339.

Chinese airlines love their A330s. They also generally need more capacity on domestic and regional routes than US carriers so A339 makes more sense for them. But maybe JAL and ANA will take another look at 767-300ER. Or they will just reconfigure older 777 for domestic service and wait for MoM.

Emirates will surely order MoM if they want something in that size. Boeing can't possibly meet the number of frames Emirates will want for 767-300ER without taking a bunch of slots from FedEx.
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