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delta747tlv
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Will we ever see US to Vietnam nonstop?

Sat Oct 21, 2017 2:58 am

Saw these interesting numbers on the TG thread for unserved routes and made me wonder if this will ever happen?

1) LAX-SGN 203,359
2) DAC-JFK 138,467
3) BKK-MAN 133,631
4) BKK-JFK 127,994
5) SFO-SGN 127,016

LAX would be a tossup between DL and AA, SFO would be UA clearly, but will they ever go for it. Vietnam probably carries the same issues as Thailand with low yield tourist and VFR traffic. Will their economy grow to develop strong business ties and traffic to warrant the flight.

On the other end, VN is getting 359s and requested the route authority but need the safety rating upgrade.
https://www.airliners.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1347437

Thoughts?
 
continental004
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Re: Will we ever see US to Vietnam nonstop?

Sat Oct 21, 2017 3:42 am

If anyone operates USA-Vietnam nonstop it’ll undoubtedly be VN. A big fat MAYBE on UA from SFO.
 
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LAX772LR
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Re: Will we ever see US to Vietnam nonstop?

Sat Oct 21, 2017 3:46 am

Well, no one, until Vietnam gets FAA authority to have a nonstop to the USA.... unless that's changed recently, it still isn't categorized for such.

VN has 789s and A350s, either of which could easily do the route to California; so it'd be interesting to see what they do once able.
I myself, suspect a more prosaic motive... ~Thranduil
 
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LAXintl
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Re: Will we ever see US to Vietnam nonstop?

Sat Oct 21, 2017 4:31 am

VN applied to serve LAX starting summer 2018 with A350 nonstop.

Vietnam Airlines applies for LAX - A350
viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1347437

Plans are to get their IASA audit this winter, so if things go well, its quite probable they can commence in 2018 as planned.

Aviation authority prepares for US FAA safety assessment
https://www.vietnambreakingnews.com/201 ... ssessment/

=
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flyfresno
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Re: Will we ever see US to Vietnam nonstop?

Sat Oct 21, 2017 4:49 pm

Jetstar to HNL or LAX on the 787? Although the best chances of this would probably involve a stop somewhere like NRT or KIX a la Air Asia...
Last edited by flyfresno on Sat Oct 21, 2017 4:51 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
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ikolkyo
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Re: Will we ever see US to Vietnam nonstop?

Sat Oct 21, 2017 4:51 pm

Not surprised to see it’s on the A350, for whatever reason VN decided to take their 789s at a lower MTOW I read awhile back. Will be interesting to see how they fare this time around.
 
NichCage
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Re: Will we ever see US to Vietnam nonstop?

Sat Oct 21, 2017 8:35 pm

LAX-SGN is no doubt a big market, so it is bound to happen at some point.

I didn't think that SFO-SGN was such a big market. It would be nice to see UA launch the route, but I doubt it will happen at all.
 
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KarelXWB
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Re: Will we ever see US to Vietnam nonstop?

Wed Nov 01, 2017 3:00 pm

LAX772LR wrote:
Well, no one, until Vietnam gets FAA authority to have a nonstop to the USA.


AFAIK Vietnam is working on that. Hence VN intents to order 280T A350s to open nonstop flights to the US.
What we leave behind is not as important as how we've lived.
 
toxtethogrady
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Re: Will we ever see US to Vietnam nonstop?

Wed Nov 01, 2017 3:02 pm

continental004 wrote:
If anyone operates USA-Vietnam nonstop it’ll undoubtedly be VN. A big fat MAYBE on UA from SFO.


I would not rule out Vietjet. Perhaps first to Honolulu and then to the US West Coast.
 
Aircellist
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Re: Will we ever see US to Vietnam nonstop?

Wed Nov 01, 2017 4:42 pm

Any possibilities for YUL? There is a sizable Vietnamese community here (there is even a restaurant close to my mom's which displays the three-bar flag…).
"When I find out I was wrong, I change my mind. What do you do?" -attributed to John Maynard Keynes
 
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maortega15
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Re: Will we ever see US to Vietnam nonstop?

Wed Nov 01, 2017 4:48 pm

Aircellist wrote:
Any possibilities for YUL? There is a sizable Vietnamese community here (there is even a restaurant close to my mom's which displays the three-bar flag…).

Not before IAH and/or IAD.
 
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centrair
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Re: Will we ever see US to Vietnam nonstop?

Sun Nov 05, 2017 10:24 am

I was reading in a magazine while in Hanoi that in 2018, VN hopes get a US route. Also they will begin final plans for the new SGN airport. The current SGN has some security concerns and is over capacity. Most domestic flights can’t use gates and they barely have tarmac to handle the capacity. (Note: I do have to say flying a 789 domestically was fun and then walking past A359s nose to nose with 789s was a blast.)
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XLA2008
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Re: Will we ever see US to Vietnam nonstop?

Sun Nov 05, 2017 11:24 am

Fingers crossed for VN! Hopefully they get a route from Vietnam to the US approved and operating... I wonder what kind of demand and pax numbers they would see on such route?
“For once you have tasted flight you will walk the earth with your eyes turned skywards, for there you have been and there you will long to return.“
 
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atcsundevil
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Re: Will we ever see US to Vietnam nonstop?

Sun Nov 05, 2017 12:01 pm

I don't see a Vietnamese route coming from a US carrier, at least not for a long time. UA lost a lot of money when they tried. The route was launched with quite a lot of fanfare since it was the first direct link between the two countries, but I think the yields were just too unsustainable to continue. Vietnam suffers from a lot of the same issues as Thailand with US flights — they can fill them, just not profitably.
 
goldorak
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Re: Will we ever see US to Vietnam nonstop?

Sun Nov 05, 2017 1:11 pm

I really hope VN will be able to start a US route soon, but they have been telling that for more than 10 years now, so I’ll believe it when I’ll see it
 
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FA9295
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Re: Will we ever see US to Vietnam nonstop?

Sun Nov 05, 2017 9:25 pm

toxtethogrady wrote:
continental004 wrote:
If anyone operates USA-Vietnam nonstop it’ll undoubtedly be VN. A big fat MAYBE on UA from SFO.


I would not rule out Vietjet. Perhaps first to Honolulu and then to the US West Coast.


Vietjet has no widebodies. Wouldn't work at all.
 
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LAX772LR
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Re: Will we ever see US to Vietnam nonstop?

Sun Nov 05, 2017 11:27 pm

goldorak wrote:
I really hope VN will be able to start a US route soon, but they have been telling that for more than 10 years now, so I’ll believe it when I’ll see it

Yeah, goes back quite a ways.... heck, they had a primarily PW-powered 77E fleet, but then leased several IGW GE birds with the intent of opping them SGN-California

Obviously never happened, but that was first discussed back in 2002.
I myself, suspect a more prosaic motive... ~Thranduil
 
jeffrey1970
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Re: Will we ever see US to Vietnam nonstop?

Mon Nov 06, 2017 12:59 am

I wonder if Delta will start a non-stop flight from MSY to whatever city VN flies to (if they get permission) since their is a large Vietnamese-American population in New Orleans.
God bless through Jesus, Jeff
 
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SLCUT2777
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Re: Will we ever see US to Vietnam nonstop?

Mon Nov 06, 2017 1:13 am

jeffrey1970 wrote:
I wonder if Delta will start a non-stop flight from MSY to whatever city VN flies to (if they get permission) since their is a large Vietnamese-American population in New Orleans.

DL has year around non-stop LAX-MSY service...
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Devilfish
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Re: Will we ever see US to Vietnam nonstop?

Mon Nov 06, 2017 1:46 am

delta747tlv wrote:
Will their economy grow to develop strong business ties and traffic to warrant the flight.

On the other end, VN is getting 359s and requested the route authority but need the safety rating upgrade.


LAX772LR wrote:
Obviously never happened, but that was first discussed back in 2002.

Subject to the safety rating upgrade, perhaps the combination of Vietnam's surging economy and new A359s will now make the route sustainable......

Image
http://www.gcmap.com/mapui?P=LAX-SGN&MS=wls&DU=nm


What weight version are VN's delivered A359s? (from the A350 P&D thread).....

Image
https://farm5.staticflickr.com/4576/243 ... c50d_z.jpg
"Everyone is entitled to my opinion." - Garfield
 
skyharborshome
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Re: Will we ever see US to Vietnam nonstop?

Mon Nov 06, 2017 3:01 am

If travel from US to Vietnam was available without Visas it would help. Many countries have this waived which is why you see a huge number of tourists from all over Europe. However Hanoi has spent a lot on their upgrades and is probably welcoming of the idea. I agree SGN is a more likely candidate.

I would welcome a nonstop especially if it prevented the horrible connection in Shanghai. ICN is easy of course just not always possible.
Fly CHD!
 
skyharborshome
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Re: Will we ever see US to Vietnam nonstop?

Mon Nov 06, 2017 3:06 am

Another plus would be connections. Phnom Penh, Siem Riep and other cities in Cambodia and beyond are exploding with tourism. LAX->SGN->PNH would be awesome.
Fly CHD!
 
lavalampluva
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Re: Will we ever see US to Vietnam nonstop?

Mon Nov 06, 2017 4:12 am

If it is to happen it would be into the usual west coast airports of LAX or SFO.
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FSDan
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Re: Will we ever see US to Vietnam nonstop?

Mon Nov 06, 2017 5:16 am

I agree with others that a VN LAX-SGN on the 359 seems the most likely. Otherwise, I wouldn't be completely surprised to see DL start LAX-SGN on their 359s once they have rolled them out to most already-existing TPAC routes.
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jeffrey1970
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Re: Will we ever see US to Vietnam nonstop?

Thu Nov 09, 2017 4:24 am

SLCUT2777 wrote:
jeffrey1970 wrote:
I wonder if Delta will start a non-stop flight from MSY to whatever city VN flies to (if they get permission) since their is a large Vietnamese-American population in New Orleans.

DL has year around non-stop LAX-MSY service...



Thank you for telling me. I did not know that. I imagine if VN gets to fly to LAX that Delta will want to code share that flight with VN.
God bless through Jesus, Jeff
 
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LAX772LR
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Re: Will we ever see US to Vietnam nonstop?

Thu Nov 09, 2017 7:54 am

FSDan wrote:
Otherwise, I wouldn't be completely surprised to see DL start LAX-SGN on their 359s once they have rolled them out to most already-existing TPAC routes.

I'd be beyond shocked to see that, unless there's some manner of massive subsidy.

That's not DL's general M.O. at all.
I myself, suspect a more prosaic motive... ~Thranduil
 
tjh8402
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Re: Will we ever see US to Vietnam nonstop?

Thu Nov 09, 2017 2:04 pm

Think there could be an announcement during Trumps visit?
 
Flighty
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Re: Will we ever see US to Vietnam nonstop?

Thu Nov 09, 2017 3:14 pm

Devilfish wrote:
Subject to the safety rating upgrade, perhaps the combination of Vietnam's surging economy and new A359s will now make the route sustainable......


Yeah, I could see that. This will be roughly like the TG A345 SE Asia-USA flights but with a much more suitable airplane. Plus those economies are somewhat bigger and richer today than they were 10 years ago. It is not certain to be profitable, but these routes are no longer impossible.
 
jetwet1
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Re: Will we ever see US to Vietnam nonstop?

Thu Nov 09, 2017 8:55 pm

XLA2008 wrote:
Fingers crossed for VN! Hopefully they get a route from Vietnam to the US approved and operating... I wonder what kind of demand and pax numbers they would see on such route?


atcsundevil wrote:
Vietnam suffers from a lot of the same issues as Thailand with US flights — they can fill them, just not profitably.


I was discussing this subject with a couple of my Vietnamese employees, I was amazed at how anti VN they were, it seems that VN has a hugely negative image in the eyes of Vietnam expats, on reading the trip reports on here they seem okay, nothing amazing but nothing horrible. It seems that CX is the preferred choice.

Anyways, my point, if VN does have an issue in the expat communities on the West coast, they are going to have issues making any flights works.
 
irelayer
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Re: Will we ever see US to Vietnam nonstop?

Thu Nov 09, 2017 9:44 pm

delta747tlv wrote:
Vietnam probably carries the same issues as Thailand with low yield tourist and VFR traffic.


But you don't know?

Why does everyone say this. I know it's fun playing armchair CEO on here, but honestly do you really know or did you just hear? I don't mean to be accusatory but it just doesn't add up in many cases when people just throw around this stuff.

How did UAs SGN tag do? I almost booked it in 2015 but decided not to for some reason and now it's gone.

I think the main problem with Vietnam vs. let's say Thailand is that it requires a pre arranged visa. Even though it's relatively easy to get one, it still deters people from going there if they are lazy (like me).

-IR
 
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SFOA380
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Re: Will we ever see US to Vietnam nonstop?

Thu Nov 09, 2017 10:36 pm

jetwet1 wrote:
XLA2008 wrote:
Fingers crossed for VN! Hopefully they get a route from Vietnam to the US approved and operating... I wonder what kind of demand and pax numbers they would see on such route?


atcsundevil wrote:
Vietnam suffers from a lot of the same issues as Thailand with US flights — they can fill them, just not profitably.


I was discussing this subject with a couple of my Vietnamese employees, I was amazed at how anti VN they were, it seems that VN has a hugely negative image in the eyes of Vietnam expats, on reading the trip reports on here they seem okay, nothing amazing but nothing horrible. It seems that CX is the preferred choice.

Anyways, my point, if VN does have an issue in the expat communities on the West coast, they are going to have issues making any flights works.



Everyone said the same thing in advance of AI launching nonstop SFO service. MANY were absolutely convinced that AI had such a poor reputation that everyone would continue to utilize one-stop options vs. an AI nonstop. What happened? AI went from 3x weekly to 6x weekly within 6 months and commands a large premium....
 
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RyanairGuru
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Re: Will we ever see US to Vietnam nonstop?

Fri Nov 10, 2017 12:14 am

jetwet1 wrote:
XLA2008 wrote:
Fingers crossed for VN! Hopefully they get a route from Vietnam to the US approved and operating... I wonder what kind of demand and pax numbers they would see on such route?


atcsundevil wrote:
Vietnam suffers from a lot of the same issues as Thailand with US flights — they can fill them, just not profitably.


I was discussing this subject with a couple of my Vietnamese employees, I was amazed at how anti VN they were, it seems that VN has a hugely negative image in the eyes of Vietnam expats, on reading the trip reports on here they seem okay, nothing amazing but nothing horrible. It seems that CX is the preferred choice.

Anyways, my point, if VN does have an issue in the expat communities on the West coast, they are going to have issues making any flights works.


Three or so years ago they were average at best, now they are pretty decent. You wouldn’t want to spend too long on their 330s or 777s that were seemingly straight out of the 1990s, but all long haul routes are now 787 or 350. They are really putting a lot of effort into improving their product and it shows. VN isn’t the best airline in the world by any stretch, but they are competitive from a product perspective and very competitive from a price perspective. I therefore can’t fault them as a passenger.
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