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777ER
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New Zealand Aviation Thread - November 2017

Tue Oct 31, 2017 9:07 am

Welcome to the November edition of the New Zealand Aviation Threads

Link to the October edition viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1375131
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With: NZ,SJ,QF,JQ,EK,VA,AA,UA,DL,FL,AC,FJ,SQ,TG,PR
 
planemanofnz
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - November 2017

Tue Oct 31, 2017 9:32 am

A number of posts from the previous thread were deleted today - for example, one linking to an article about Barrier Air.

Can someone please elaborate as how these posts breached the forum's standards?

Cheers,

C.
 
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VirginFlyer
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - November 2017

Tue Oct 31, 2017 5:59 pm

planemanofnz wrote:
A number of posts from the previous thread were deleted today - for example, one linking to an article about Barrier Air.

Can someone please elaborate as how these posts breached the forum's standards?

Cheers,

C.

Hmmm - I recall the Barrier Air post - not sure what the issue was - I would recommend you contact the moderators and enquire. On that post, it wasn't that newsworthy though - I believe the Partenavia has been out of service for some time now, I guess someone just noticed.

V/F
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - November 2017

Tue Oct 31, 2017 7:38 pm

When will KE bring the 747-8 in? For once AKL might have enough A380/748 gates now that gate 17 there...
 
NPL8800
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - November 2017

Tue Oct 31, 2017 8:15 pm

ZKSUJ wrote:
When will KE bring the 747-8 in? For once AKL might have enough A380/748 gates now that gate 17 there...


77W till Nov 30 then 748 from Dec 1 by the looks of things
 
nirvarma
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - November 2017

Tue Oct 31, 2017 9:56 pm

Hi, is anybody able to shed some light as to why the inbound flight number of Cathay's daily has changed to CX113 while the outbound remains CX198?
 
planemanofnz
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - November 2017

Wed Nov 01, 2017 1:12 am

Air capacity within and from the South Pacific is up 2.7% in 2017 (Jan-2017 to Oct-2017), with an additional 3.1 million seats being added to the market during that period, lead by New Zealand:

Image

See: https://blueswandaily.com/analysis-nove ... the-month/.

Cheers,

C.
 
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - November 2017

Wed Nov 01, 2017 1:19 am

Problems up north:

Scrub fire forces Kaitaia Airport closed

Kaitaia Airport has been closed as firefighters tackle a big scrub fire nearby.

Full article: http://www.radionz.co.nz/news/national/ ... ort-closed

Let's hope it's sorted by the time the Barrier Air flight is due this evening!

V/F
It is not for him to pride himself who loveth his own country, but rather for him who loveth the whole world. The earth is but one country, and mankind its citizens. —Bahá'u'lláh
 
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aerorobnz
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - November 2017

Wed Nov 01, 2017 2:29 am

nirvarma wrote:
Hi, is anybody able to shed some light as to why the inbound flight number of Cathay's daily has changed to CX113 while the outbound remains CX198?

I forgot to check the schedule at work, but it is usual that at this overlap period between schedules retiming to the later summer schedule that there are a few temporary flight numbers inserted to ensure no overlaps. NZ usually has them for their late night SIN flight at the end of the daylight savings period due to two departures with the same "Zulu Day" so they have to differentiate. I suspect this is a similar thing, It will probably change once the CX 77W is installed on the route shortly.
Flown to 147 Airports in 62 Countries on 83 Operators and counting. Wanderlust is like Syphilis, once you have the itch it's too late for treatment.
 
planemanofnz
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - November 2017

Wed Nov 01, 2017 4:09 am

Aviation union want Jetstar to reveal working conditions after clipboard sucked into plane engine

"The largest aviation union in New Zealand is challenging the ground handling company Aerocare to reveal its training regime and working conditions."

See: https://www.tvnz.co.nz/one-news/new-zea ... ane-engine.

Cheers,

C.
 
PA515
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - November 2017

Thu Nov 02, 2017 9:42 am

Update re 'sunrisevalley' (Hugh).

I sent an email to Hugh's son Tony letting him know his father was a well liked and respected contributor to airliners.net and that we miss him. I listed the post numbers about him with your user names and provided links to the 'New Zealand Aviation Thread - October 2017' (page 8) and the 'Site Related' forum thread 'User Sunrisevalley RIP'. He will be able to copy the email to other family members.

PA515
 
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - November 2017

Thu Nov 02, 2017 11:39 am

It may well have been normal operations, but something I've not seen before happened today at Auckland - an Emirates A380 was holding on taxyway A for a long time more or less abeam the fire station, and when a Tianjin Airlines A330 landed it too ended up holding for quite some time on A, in front of the A380, more or less outside the regional gates at the domestic terminal. Any idea what was going on?

V/F
It is not for him to pride himself who loveth his own country, but rather for him who loveth the whole world. The earth is but one country, and mankind its citizens. —Bahá'u'lláh
 
PA515
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - November 2017

Thu Nov 02, 2017 11:50 am

Received this reply from Tony Drogemuller.
Hi John

Thanks for getting in touch. My dad was definitely an aviation enthusiast and I look forward to reading the posts from your members.

Kind regards

Tony


PA515
 
ZKSUJ
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - November 2017

Thu Nov 02, 2017 4:38 pm

V/F I wasn't there at the time but an educated guess would be lack of gates at AKL. Happens on a regular basis to different carriers at international. I have a pic of 2 EK 380s holding on Juliet waiting for a gate, and I know of a few instances in recent times of NZ domestic 320s with no gate avaliable. It happens to the link guys alot too
 
ZKSUJ
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - November 2017

Thu Nov 02, 2017 4:44 pm

Sad news about Sunrisevalley. RIP to a great contributor
 
ZK-NBT
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - November 2017

Sat Nov 04, 2017 3:36 am

ZKSUJ wrote:
When will KE bring the 747-8 in? For once AKL might have enough A380/748 gates now that gate 17 there...


I’d gate 17 open now? 18 should open not to long after, I believe 19 will also be built next year now? Atleast with less EK A380’s there is a bit more space for all the 737’s/A320’s.

Early AM up to 10 NZ heavies, QF, LA, CZ, CX, KE, UA, AA, HX, sure some of these leave by the time UA, AA roll in but there is a load of A320’s/737’s of NZ, QF, VA, JQ, FJ that depart as well.

Then similar from 1630-1900, 7-8 NZ heavies, CZ, MU, CA, CI, D7, QF.

I was thinking I wonder if NZ might change their PER-AKL flight? They changed the daily outbound from 1430 to 1040, I was thinking since they have quite a short redeye return 6hrs overnight and QF looking at year round PER-AKL service possibly similar schedule as they have done in the past seasonally whether NZ might change to a daily daylight service.

PER 0700 AKL 1800

Meaning that in winter when they only have 1 flight that an aircraft would be at PER from 1300-0700. Winter utilisation is lower so maybe not so much of an issue from that side, use a 772 where fuel burn is less noticed on shorter flights and more J W seating than the 789’s for North American connections which is the main reason for my thinking. Summer they can bring the redeye back a few days plus CHC.

AKL 1040 PER 1315
PER 1900 AKL/CHC 0600

AKL/CHC 1900 PER 2135
PER 0700 AKL 1800

Thoughts?
 
NZ321
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - November 2017

Sat Nov 04, 2017 9:38 am

Question re NZ 789s. I note in another forum that NH has parked several aircraft at HND pending replacement of T1000 blades - related to other publicised problems with this engine in this forum. I'm not aware that NZ has had any such problems. Can anybody explain this?
Plane mad!
 
NZ321
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - November 2017

Sat Nov 04, 2017 9:41 am

ZK-NBT wrote:
ZKSUJ wrote:
When will KE bring the 747-8 in? For once AKL might have enough A380/748 gates now that gate 17 there...


I’d gate 17 open now? 18 should open not to long after, I believe 19 will also be built next year now? Atleast with less EK A380’s there is a bit more space for all the 737’s/A320’s.

Early AM up to 10 NZ heavies, QF, LA, CZ, CX, KE, UA, AA, HX, sure some of these leave by the time UA, AA roll in but there is a load of A320’s/737’s of NZ, QF, VA, JQ, FJ that depart as well.

Then similar from 1630-1900, 7-8 NZ heavies, CZ, MU, CA, CI, D7, QF.

I was thinking I wonder if NZ might change their PER-AKL flight? They changed the daily outbound from 1430 to 1040, I was thinking since they have quite a short redeye return 6hrs overnight and QF looking at year round PER-AKL service possibly similar schedule as they have done in the past seasonally whether NZ might change to a daily daylight service.

PER 0700 AKL 1800

Meaning that in winter when they only have 1 flight that an aircraft would be at PER from 1300-0700. Winter utilisation is lower so maybe not so much of an issue from that side, use a 772 where fuel burn is less noticed on shorter flights and more J W seating than the 789’s for North American connections which is the main reason for my thinking. Summer they can bring the redeye back a few days plus CHC.

AKL 1040 PER 1315
PER 1900 AKL/CHC 0600

AKL/CHC 1900 PER 2135
PER 0700 AKL 1800

Thoughts?


Is Gate 19 confirmed? If so, where will it go? On the end of the pier or on the opposite side?
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QF108
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EK412 GoAround @ CHC

Sun Nov 05, 2017 1:12 am

I know go arounds are a pretty common occurence, and indeed an early part of pilot training.
But with the Nor Wester howling out at CHC today EK412 went around on the first attempt. He got down to 550ft before deciding to go around, then made a righthand downwind leg right over the city. Would have been a sight to see from the go around to the aircraft at lowish altitude over central Christchurch.
I dare say the first time since we've had A380 service that is has been forced to go around despite the notorious gale force nor west winds over the Canterbury plains
Blessed are the Cheesemakers !
 
QF108
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - November 2017

Mon Nov 06, 2017 7:02 pm

This story is largely about a cracked windscreen on an Air Nelson Dash8 but it also has a video of the EK A380's go around. He was far lower than 550ft pretty cool
https://i.stuff.co.nz/national/98601150 ... ugh-flight
Blessed are the Cheesemakers !
 
ZK-NBT
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - November 2017

Tue Nov 07, 2017 6:29 am

NZ321 wrote:
ZK-NBT wrote:
ZKSUJ wrote:
When will KE bring the 747-8 in? For once AKL might have enough A380/748 gates now that gate 17 there...


I’d gate 17 open now? 18 should open not to long after, I believe 19 will also be built next year now? Atleast with less EK A380’s there is a bit more space for all the 737’s/A320’s.

Early AM up to 10 NZ heavies, QF, LA, CZ, CX, KE, UA, AA, HX, sure some of these leave by the time UA, AA roll in but there is a load of A320’s/737’s of NZ, QF, VA, JQ, FJ that depart as well.

Then similar from 1630-1900, 7-8 NZ heavies, CZ, MU, CA, CI, D7, QF.

I was thinking I wonder if NZ might change their PER-AKL flight? They changed the daily outbound from 1430 to 1040, I was thinking since they have quite a short redeye return 6hrs overnight and QF looking at year round PER-AKL service possibly similar schedule as they have done in the past seasonally whether NZ might change to a daily daylight service.

PER 0700 AKL 1800

Meaning that in winter when they only have 1 flight that an aircraft would be at PER from 1300-0700. Winter utilisation is lower so maybe not so much of an issue from that side, use a 772 where fuel burn is less noticed on shorter flights and more J W seating than the 789’s for North American connections which is the main reason for my thinking. Summer they can bring the redeye back a few days plus CHC.

AKL 1040 PER 1315
PER 1900 AKL/CHC 0600

AKL/CHC 1900 PER 2135
PER 0700 AKL 1800

Thoughts?


Is Gate 19 confirmed? If so, where will it go? On the end of the pier or on the opposite side?


Gate 19 will go next to 18, I’m not exactly sure when it’s being built but it has been mentioned.
 
planemanofnz
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - November 2017

Tue Nov 07, 2017 1:04 pm

Does anyone know why VA is hiring ATR72 crew in AKL?

See: http://careers.virginaustralia.com/cw/e ... -contracts.

Cheers,

C.
 
Mr AirNZ
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - November 2017

Tue Nov 07, 2017 8:32 pm

planemanofnz wrote:
Does anyone know why VA is hiring ATR72 crew in AKL?

See: http://careers.virginaustralia.com/cw/e ... -contracts.

Cheers,

C.

VA utilise the Air New Zealand ATR simulators in Auckland.

They've obviously decided that engaging some contract simulator instructors for a while is beneficial to them (reduced overnighting costs etc).
 
DavidByrne
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - November 2017

Tue Nov 07, 2017 9:29 pm

Mr AirNZ wrote:
planemanofnz wrote:
Does anyone know why VA is hiring ATR72 crew in AKL?

See: http://careers.virginaustralia.com/cw/e ... -contracts.

Cheers,

C.

VA utilise the Air New Zealand ATR simulators in Auckland.

They've obviously decided that engaging some contract simulator instructors for a while is beneficial to them (reduced overnighting costs etc).

Surely the real issue here is that they are advertising for staff at the same time they are reducing their ATR fleet from 14(?) to 6.
This is not my beautiful house . . . This is not my beautiful wife
 
planemanofnz
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - November 2017

Wed Nov 08, 2017 2:53 am

It is election season in Queensland - the LNP has promised funding to boost international visitor arrivals. There will be a particular focus on luring international flights to the Whitsundays.

"New Zealand will be specifically targeted as a nod to the country’s status as Queensland’s largest inbound tourism source market with 465,500 Kiwi visitors in the year ending June 2016."

See:
- http://www.themercury.com.au/news/natio ... 95343804c5.
- https://www.dailymercury.com.au/news/ln ... a/3259605/.

I wonder whether NZ can be incentivized into HTI, MKY, PPP, ROK or TSV, even for seasonal flights? Waivers for airport landing fees would be a good start for any such incentives.

Image

Cheers,

C.
 
planemanofnz
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - November 2017

Wed Nov 08, 2017 10:18 am

GS will commence a new 1x weekly TSN - XIY - AKL service, on 29 December 2017.

See: viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1378279.

With just 1x weekly service, one has to think - what is the point?

Airfares in the China - New Zealand corridor are now really low:

- AKL - CKG (GS): NZD 239 one way - see: https://global.tianjin-air.com/NZ/GB/sale.
- AKL - PVG (MU): NZD 560 return - see: http://oa.ceair.com/nz/en/hot-destination.html.

The yields for these services must be terrible.

How is NZ's AKL - PVG service is performing?

Cheers,

C.
 
NZ321
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - November 2017

Wed Nov 08, 2017 10:30 am

Love to know how PVG is performing for NZ and CAN for CZ. I trust that CZ's yields must be better than the ones quoted above given their ongoing investment in NZ as a market.
Plane mad!
 
planemanofnz
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - November 2017

Wed Nov 08, 2017 11:04 am

NZ321 wrote:
Love to know how PVG is performing for NZ and CAN for CZ. I trust that CZ's yields must be better than the ones quoted above given their ongoing investment in NZ as a market.

The thing that strikes me about GS too, is that there are only 18 Business Class seats on its A330s - in comparison, CZ has 24 Business Class seats on its A330s, in addition to ~50 Premium Economy Class seats. As a result, GS' yield potential is even lower than its competitors.

CZ and NZ are much more established in the market, having served the China - New Zealand corridor for 5 - 10 years.

Indeed, doing a random booking for flights in early February 2018 (which is when that GS deal was valid for), showed:

- AKL - CAN on CZ being sold for ~NZD 1300 (Economy Class)
- AKL - PVG on NZ being sold for ~NZD 1500 (Economy Class)

CZ and NZ's performance on these routes would further be enhanced by:

- Use of fuel-efficient 787s (as opposed to A330s, which are used by GS)
- Competitive offerings for connections (particularly through to Europe)
- Cargo demand, which is more likely to go on higher-frequency services

It will be interesting to see whether MF opens XMN - AKL, as it was rumoured to be thinking about doing earlier this year.

See: https://www.nbr.co.nz/article/carry-xia ... -ng-199909.

Cheers,

C.
 
Qantas16
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - November 2017

Wed Nov 08, 2017 12:03 pm

planemanofnz wrote:
It is election season in Queensland - the LNP has promised funding to boost international visitor arrivals. There will be a particular focus on luring international flights to the Whitsundays.

"New Zealand will be specifically targeted as a nod to the country’s status as Queensland’s largest inbound tourism source market with 465,500 Kiwi visitors in the year ending June 2016."

See:
- http://www.themercury.com.au/news/natio ... 95343804c5.
- https://www.dailymercury.com.au/news/ln ... a/3259605/.

I wonder whether NZ can be incentivized into HTI, MKY, PPP, ROK or TSV, even for seasonal flights? Waivers for airport landing fees would be a good start for any such incentives.

Image

Cheers,

C.


Would have thought this would be a lot more of a federal government issue than Qld government as federal government needs to fund border force. While a lot of those destinations have customs anyway, it would require a boost to cater scheduled traffic.

All of those destinations are possible though, if the incentives were right. NZ would have a lot of data on this already from connections with VA
 
planemanofnz
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - November 2017

Thu Nov 09, 2017 8:29 am

Hi all,

This thread has become quite quiet of late - one topic that I hope to generate some discussion with, is the case for the CS100 at NZ.

Airbus and Bombardier have partnered - given that NZ is a customer of both, a CS100 order could be tied-in with an NZ A350 order.

Primarily, a CS100 sub-fleet would address the notably large gap between the ATR72s with 68 seats, and the A320s with 171 seats.

IMHO, there are a number of possible uses for a CS100 sub-fleet at NZ - both domestic and international - some of which are below:

1. Feed AKL hub with more secondary Australian and Pacific Island destinations:

Image

2. Improve economics and frequencies of low-frequency short-haul routes:

Image

3. Explore international opportunities from secondary New Zealand destinations:

Image

4. Expand on domestic routes where the ATR72 is too small, but the A320 is too big:

Image

Cheers,

C.
 
ZK-NBT
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - November 2017

Thu Nov 09, 2017 9:22 am

There is another thread talking about airbus shutting down the C series, no idea what the chances are of that or not.

What are the economics of the CS100 which I confess I no nothing about being that we don’t see them in this part of the world, CS 100 va A320 economics anyone? Different sizes sure but would NZ have not taken a few A319’s If it needed something smaller? And they can fill on most routes an A320 even though IUE is once weekly twice in peak, population of what 2000?

NZ will likely view it as another type, nice thought no chance of happening imo. So no case really imo for the C series.

As for domestic, where is the ATR to small and A320 to big, they will go 2 ATR’s if they need an inbetween or 3 Q300’s etc.
 
planemanofnz
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - November 2017

Thu Nov 09, 2017 9:32 am

ZK-NBT wrote:
And they can fill on most routes an A320 even though IUE is once weekly twice in peak, population of what 2000?

AKL - IUE is not the best example, as AFAIK, it is a subsidised route.

See: http://www.radionz.co.nz/international/ ... nd-flights.

Nevertheless, I do get your point.

Cheers,

C.
 
aerokiwi
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - November 2017

Thu Nov 09, 2017 9:39 am

PA515 wrote:
Update re 'sunrisevalley' (Hugh).

I sent an email to Hugh's son Tony letting him know his father was a well liked and respected contributor to airliners.net and that we miss him. I listed the post numbers about him with your user names and provided links to the 'New Zealand Aviation Thread - October 2017' (page 8) and the 'Site Related' forum thread 'User Sunrisevalley RIP'. He will be able to copy the email to other family members.

PA515


That's fantastic thanks for arranging that. Much appreciated.
 
NZ321
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - November 2017

Thu Nov 09, 2017 10:21 am

ZK-NBT wrote:
There is another thread talking about airbus shutting down the C series, no idea what the chances are of that or not.

What are the economics of the CS100 which I confess I no nothing about being that we don’t see them in this part of the world, CS 100 va A320 economics anyone? Different sizes sure but would NZ have not taken a few A319’s If it needed something smaller? And they can fill on most routes an A320 even though IUE is once weekly twice in peak, population of what 2000?

NZ will likely view it as another type, nice thought no chance of happening imo. So no case really imo for the C series.

As for domestic, where is the ATR to small and A320 to big, they will go 2 ATR’s if they need an inbetween or 3 Q300’s etc.


I don't rate the chances of Airbus shutting it down in the immediate term. If they can generate more orders then all the more likelihood the line will stay open. Airbus would not have announced the Mobile assembly if they were going to do a quick fire shut-down. In the medium to long term it could be possible if Airbus fails to cut costs and improve margins on the jet. Only time and future orders will tell how that will go. It's just a prediction from one analyst who doesn't have the information that Airbus does having done due diligence on the deal.

I'd love to see the CS100 at NZ. It makes so much sense for all the reasons that Planemanofnz has proposed. New island flights. New flights to niche Australian destinations. Helps towns like Dunedin, Hamilton, etc offer a wider range of direct services. Could further expand AKL's reputation as the hub of the south pacific. Lots of opportunity here. But whether NZ could be tempted remains to be seen. Could the CS100 land at Nelson?
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NZ321
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - November 2017

Thu Nov 09, 2017 10:24 am

Further to above wiki says NSN runway is 1347 m and Bombardier says the runway length for maximum weight takeoff is 1463 m. That's quite close if you ask me. So maybe CS100 could fly out of NZ's 6th busiest airport on domestic runs where it is not at MTOW.
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Motorhussy
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - November 2017

Thu Nov 09, 2017 10:54 am

Very sorry to read of sunrisevalley’s death, a valuable and enjoyable contributor to this forum. Vale.
come visit the south pacific
 
planemanofnz
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - November 2017

Thu Nov 09, 2017 11:40 am

ZK-NBT wrote:
As for domestic, where is the ATR to small and A320 to big, they will go 2 ATR’s if they need an inbetween or 3 Q300’s etc.

There are a few other factors to consider, regarding NZ's domestic operations and the CS100:

- The CS100 allows for new domestic routes to be opened, like AKL - IVC and ROT - ZQN (where the ATR72 might be stretched, but the A320 is too large)
- On some routes, customer satisfaction with the ATR72s is far from great (e.g. WLG - CHC)
- A jet would further differentiate NZ from JQ at regional destinations, like NSN, NPE and PMR

Regarding using additional ATR72 flights, NZ ordered the A321NEO, but could have solely gone with the A320NEO and more frequencies - it did not - this demonstrates that in some instances, it is more economical to fly one larger flight, than many smaller flights (particularly given fixed costs, like landing charges).

ZK-NBT wrote:
Different sizes sure but would NZ have not taken a few A319’s If it needed something smaller?

- The CS100 and the A319 are different, with the A319 being larger than the CS100 (seating 15% more passengers)
- NZ's original short-haul Airbus order (when the A319 would have been considered) was 10 - 15 years ago - times change

ZK-NBT wrote:
And they can fill on most routes an A320 even though IUE is once weekly twice in peak, population of what 2000?

One other thought on this - if NZ wants to develop its hub strategy, then frequencies on its short-haul routes will need to be greater than 1x weekly.

This is more relevant to the likes of CBR and HBA for connecting to North American services - the CS100 would better facilitate this than the A320.

NZ321 wrote:
Further to above wiki says NSN runway is 1347 m and Bombardier says the runway length for maximum weight takeoff is 1463 m. That's quite close if you ask me. So maybe CS100 could fly out of NZ's 6th busiest airport on domestic runs where it is not at MTOW.

:checkmark:

There are a number of airports with short runways that the CS100 would perform better than the A320 at, including CHT, NPE, NPL and others too.

Cheers,

C.
 
ZK-NBT
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Joined: Mon Oct 16, 2000 5:42 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Threre ad - November 2017

Thu Nov 09, 2017 6:43 pm

Re the A321 part, these are part of the order to replace the regional A320 fleet. I could see some additional ones ordered down the line for domestic use.
 
planemanofnz
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - November 2017

Fri Nov 10, 2017 1:51 am

There has been some good growth out of HLZ recently, with passenger numbers rising ~5% for the 2016/2017 financial year.

Interestingly, Waikato Regional Airport Ltd Group Chief Executive, Mark Morgan, "said the airport has no plans to seek international flights."

Further, "The Christchurch route is the most popular - more than 41,000 people flew to and from the South Island city between July and October this year."

See: https://www.stuff.co.nz/waikato-times/b ... on-airport.

IMHO, HLZ is a good example of an airport where the CS100 could work - the A320 is too big, but growth is still clearly there.

I wonder if HLZ - DUD might work too, even seasonally - Otago University sources a chunk of its student cohort from the Waikato.

NZ321 wrote:
I'd love to see the CS100 at NZ. It makes so much sense for all the reasons that Planemanofnz has proposed.

:checkmark:

It is also notable that QF has its 717 fleet to plug the gap between its turbo-prop fleet and its 737-800s - NZ does not have an equivalent.

Cheers,

C.
 
a7ala
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - November 2017

Fri Nov 10, 2017 2:33 am

planemanofnz wrote:
There has been some good growth out of HLZ recently, with passenger numbers rising ~5% for the 2016/2017 financial year.

Interestingly, Waikato Regional Airport Ltd Group Chief Executive, Mark Morgan, "said the airport has no plans to seek international flights."

Further, "The Christchurch route is the most popular - more than 41,000 people flew to and from the South Island city between July and October this year."

See: https://www.stuff.co.nz/waikato-times/b ... on-airport.

IMHO, HLZ is a good example of an airport where the CS100 could work - the A320 is too big, but growth is still clearly there.

I wonder if HLZ - DUD might work too, even seasonally - Otago University sources a chunk of its student cohort from the Waikato.



Its a shame when they dont know their own numbers - there is almost twice as many seats on HLZ-WLG as there is HLZ-CHC so I dont believe CHC could be the most popular.
 
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mariner
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - November 2017

Fri Nov 10, 2017 4:23 am

Things have gone very quiet about Manila - for NZ. Are they still planning to start the route or is it a dead duck?

I ask because Cebu Pacific is increasing MNL-SYD to daily and indicating they they'll start MNL-MEL next year.

https://blueswandaily.com/cebu-pacific- ... melbourne/

"Cebu Pacific looks to grow further in Australia in 2018 with Melbourne

“Australia is working well because it is selling well on both ends,” Mr Szucs said. “Australia is a very good market for us.”


Assuming that holds and that MEL does well, I guess they'd be looking at AKL next. They're not scared of competition, they are one of three carriers on SYD-MNL but if they did start AKL it would make it that little bit tougher on NZ.

So I reckon NZ's got a couple years to get in, to start AKL-MNL- if they still want to do so. But then, I was never sure why it didn't go ahead first time around.

mariner
aeternum nauta
 
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77west
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - November 2017

Fri Nov 10, 2017 4:58 am

I have said for a while the CS100 would fit quite well at NZ, for much the same reasons above. Sadly I agree it is quite unlikely. But, it is only a matter of time before routes like AKL-IVC and ZQN-ROT or even ZQN-HLZ demand something bigger/faster than the ATR and more direct flights. So will be interesting to see what happens. Perhaps 10 years down the line when the domestic A320's come up for renewal we could see CS100/300 replacing them, with A321NEO for the trunk routes and regional/pacific islands? If the C Series is even still around that is...
77West - AW109S - BE90 - JS31 - B1900 - Q300 - ATR72 - DC9-30 - MD80 - B733 - A320 - B738 - A300-B4 - B773 - B77W
 
ZK-NBT
Posts: 6973
Joined: Mon Oct 16, 2000 5:42 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - November 2017

Fri Nov 10, 2017 6:58 am

planemanofnz wrote:
There has been some good growth out of HLZ recently, with passenger numbers rising ~5% for the 2016/2017 financial year.

Interestingly, Waikato Regional Airport Ltd Group Chief Executive, Mark Morgan, "said the airport has no plans to seek international flights."

Further, "The Christchurch route is the most popular - more than 41,000 people flew to and from the South Island city between July and October this year."

See: https://www.stuff.co.nz/waikato-times/b ... on-airport.

IMHO, HLZ is a good example of an airport where the CS100 could work - the A320 is too big, but growth is still clearly there.

I wonder if HLZ - DUD might work too, even seasonally - Otago University sources a chunk of its student cohort from the Waikato.

NZ321 wrote:
I'd love to see the CS100 at NZ. It makes so much sense for all the reasons that Planemanofnz has proposed.

:checkmark:

It is also notable that QF has its 717 fleet to plug the gap between its turbo-prop fleet and its 737-800s - NZ does not have an equivalent.

Cheers,

C.


QF have a much bigger fleet though 75 738’s and what 30ish is it 717’s?

At one stage NZ were said to be considering 737’s so 5 years ago probably, into PMR/IVC/HLZ weren’t they? I could see a daily AKL-IVC somehow scheduled to connect to the long haul banks at both ends of the day maybe add an A320 IVC-CHC or WLG to help,

AKL 0900 IVC 1100
IVC 1135 CHC 1215

CHC 1430 IVC 1510
IVC 1545 AKL 1745

Maybe AKL and CHC-PMR and a CHC-HLZ maybe A320’s.

Re the CS100, why not a 73G? Similar size but defiantly won’t happen.


mariner wrote:
Things have gone very quiet about Manila - for NZ. Are they still planning to start the route or is it a dead duck?

I ask because Cebu Pacific is increasing MNL-SYD to daily and indicating they they'll start MNL-MEL next year.

https://blueswandaily.com/cebu-pacific- ... melbourne/

"Cebu Pacific looks to grow further in Australia in 2018 with Melbourne

“Australia is working well because it is selling well on both ends,” Mr Szucs said. “Australia is a very good market for us.”


Assuming that holds and that MEL does well, I guess they'd be looking at AKL next. They're not scared of competition, they are one of three carriers on SYD-MNL but if they did start AKL it would make it that little bit tougher on NZ.

So I reckon NZ's got a couple years to get in, to start AKL-MNL- if they still want to do so. But then, I was never sure why it didn't go ahead first time around.

mariner


Pretty sure it was political tension although it wasn’t in MNL itself? No idea weather they will look again, they delayed indefinitely I think. Was nothing to do with PR, 5J have mentioned AKL in the past, I’m not sure it’s a route that needs more than one carrier, what sort of connections are there for 5J?
 
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mariner
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - November 2017

Fri Nov 10, 2017 7:52 am

ZK-NBT wrote:
Pretty sure it was political tension although it wasn’t in MNL itself? No idea weather they will look again, they delayed indefinitely I think. Was nothing to do with PR, 5J have mentioned AKL in the past, I’m not sure it’s a route that needs more than one carrier, what sort of connections are there for 5J?


Potentially they're not bad, although of course I have no idea of timings.

Image

Internationally, it covers most of the places Kiwis might want to go and the domestic network (not shown) is excellent.

mariner
aeternum nauta
 
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Birdiey
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - November 2017

Fri Nov 10, 2017 8:02 am

Im from Hamilton. What growth is HLZ looking at?
 
planemanofnz
Posts: 4296
Joined: Fri Sep 30, 2005 4:46 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - November 2017

Fri Nov 10, 2017 10:18 am

ZK-NBT wrote:
Re the CS100, why not a 73G? Similar size but defiantly won’t happen.

No way - NZ would go with the A319 over the 73G, given its existing A320 short-haul fleet - think cockpit commonalities.

Even then, both the A319 and 73G are 'old' technology, so to speak - the CS100 is new technology, with a number of differences, including greater range, lower passenger count, and improved performance on shorter runways - there is simply no comparison between the A319 with the CS100 in terms of opportunity.

mariner wrote:
Things have gone very quiet about Manila - for NZ. Are they still planning to start the route or is it a dead duck?

I reckon NZ's got a couple years to get in, to start AKL-MNL- if they still want to do so. But then, I was never sure why it didn't go ahead first time around.

NZ claimed that "administrative delays" were to blame - as quoted from a New Zealand media article:

"It's taken longer than anticipated to fulfil all the requirements to make an application to the Filipino Government to get permission to operate this route," an Air NZ spokeswoman said.

See: http://www.stuff.co.nz/travel/news/8177 ... her-notice.

That was ~18 months ago - if NZ was still interested in MNL, further information would have been released. IMHO, upon further analysis of the effect of PR's entry into AKL, the numbers simply did not stack up for NZ. Indeed, NZ has no competition to equivalent 'holiday' destinations, like DPS and SGN.

NZ should prioritize CGK, which is a larger market than MNL, with less competition. GA is facing financial difficulties, which will allow NZ to swoop in largely un-challenged. Further, NZ already operates to DPS, so it would be familiar with Indonesian route approval requirements (unlike in the Philippines).

mariner wrote:
Cebu Pacific is increasing MNL-SYD to daily and indicating they they'll start MNL-MEL next year.

Assuming that holds and that MEL does well, I guess they'd be looking at AKL next. They're not scared of competition, they are one of three carriers on SYD-MNL but if they did start AKL it would make it that little bit tougher on NZ.

It is one thing for 5J to say that it will start MEL, but it is another for 5J to actually follow through - it has been talking about MEL for years.

That being said, AKL is overdue to have a long-haul LCC service, like BNE, OOL, SYD and MEL all have. Although AKL has D7, its one-stop service does not equate to a long-haul flight. IMHO, TZ is more likely to commence AKL than 5J, given its more established presence in Australia (5J can still expand to MEL, OOL and elsewhere), and its more efficient fleet (the 787 would be far more economical than the A330, on such a low-yielding long-haul route).

Cheers,

C.
 
NZ321
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - November 2017

Fri Nov 10, 2017 10:55 am

RE MNL
What about the idea that PR petitioned the government to hold access for NZ until it could launch it's own nonstop flights? I don't get why NZ didn't push ahead with MNL. Administrative problems sounds like a smoke screen / delay tactic.
Plane mad!
 
NZ321
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - November 2017

Fri Nov 10, 2017 10:59 am

Re CGK: What are the traffic statistics? My understanding is the vast majority of traffic is to DPS so why not make DPS year-round. 2-3 weekly off-peak and 4-5 weekly on-peak? Good connections available from DPS. NZ has been very cautious in the Indonesian market. Must be a reason.
Plane mad!
 
planemanofnz
Posts: 4296
Joined: Fri Sep 30, 2005 4:46 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - November 2017

Fri Nov 10, 2017 11:38 am

On the topic of possible new long-haul LCC services to AKL, I have done a bit of a fare comparison.

D7 to KUL is NZD 578 return (see: https://www.airasia.com/nz/en/home-old.page), which compares to:

Southeast Asia (note - there were no promotional fares on NZ to Southeast Asia)
- PH to MNL is NZD 645 return (see: https://www.philippineairlines.com/en/p ... ns/USS-AKL)
- TG to BKK is NZD 900 return (see: http://www.thaiairways.com/en_NZ/plan_m ... nd_NZ.page)
- MH to KUL is NZD 995 return (see: https://www.malaysiaairlines.com/nz/en.html)
- SQ to SIN is NZD 999 return (see: http://www.singaporeair.com/en_UK/nz/sp ... re_168156/)

Mainland China (note - there were no promotional fares on CA, CZ and NZ to Mainland China)
- GS to CKG is NZD 500 return (see: https://global.tianjin-air.com/NZ/GB/sale)
- MU to PVG is NZD 560 return (see: http://oa.ceair.com/nz/en/hot-destination.html)
- HU to SZX is NZD 656 return (see: https://www.hainanairlines.com/NZ/GB/bigsale)
- CX to PEK is NZD 859 return (see: https://www.cathaypacific.com/cx/en_NZ/ ... kland.html)

IMHO, this raises a couple of interesting points:

- Flights to Southeast Asia are significantly more expensive, than they are to Mainland China
- D7 is competitive to Southeast Asia, but not so within the overall Asia - New Zealand corridor

It would be great to see some more competition to Southeast Asia, to drive down fares - I see:

- D7 considering AKL - KUL (non-stop)
- NZ considering AKL - CGK and AKL - HKT
- TZ considering AKL - SIN and CHC - SIN
- VN considering AKL - HAN and AKL - SGN

I doubt that 5J will consider AKL - it is still yet to make MEL work, after which it could go to the likes of OOL and PER, and face no competition from PR.

Separately, it is interesting that CA is actively marketing AKL - PEK - North America (see: https://www.airchina.nz/NZ/GB/promotion ... KKNZ:NZ:EN).

Cheers,

C.
 
ZK-NBT
Posts: 6973
Joined: Mon Oct 16, 2000 5:42 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - November 2017

Fri Nov 10, 2017 6:33 pm

planemanofnz wrote:
ZK-NBT wrote:
Re the CS100, why not a 73G? Similar size but defiantly won’t happen.

No way - NZ would go with the A319 over the 73G, given its existing A320 short-haul fleet - think cockpit commonalities.

Even then, both the A319 and 73G are 'old' technology, so to speak - the CS100 is new technology, with a number of differences, including greater range, lower passenger count, and improved performance on shorter runways - there is simply no comparison between the A319 with the CS100 in terms of opportunity.

mariner wrote:
Things have gone very quiet about Manila - for NZ. Are they still planning to start the route or is it a dead duck?

I reckon NZ's got a couple years to get in, to start AKL-MNL- if they still want to do so. But then, I was never sure why it didn't go ahead first time around.

NZ claimed that "administrative delays" were to blame - as quoted from a New Zealand media article:

"It's taken longer than anticipated to fulfil all the requirements to make an application to the Filipino Government to get permission to operate this route," an Air NZ spokeswoman said.

See: http://www.stuff.co.nz/travel/news/8177 ... her-notice.

That was ~18 months ago - if NZ was still interested in MNL, further information would have been released. IMHO, upon further analysis of the effect of PR's entry into AKL, the numbers simply did not stack up for NZ. Indeed, NZ has no competition to equivalent 'holiday' destinations, like DPS and SGN.

NZ should prioritize CGK, which is a larger market than MNL, with less competition. GA is facing financial difficulties, which will allow NZ to swoop in largely un-challenged. Further, NZ already operates to DPS, so it would be familiar with Indonesian route approval requirements (unlike in the Philippines).

mariner wrote:
Cebu Pacific is increasing MNL-SYD to daily and indicating they they'll start MNL-MEL next year.

Assuming that holds and that MEL does well, I guess they'd be looking at AKL next. They're not scared of competition, they are one of three carriers on SYD-MNL but if they did start AKL it would make it that little bit tougher on NZ.

It is one thing for 5J to say that it will start MEL, but it is another for 5J to actually follow through - it has been talking about MEL for years.

That being said, AKL is overdue to have a long-haul LCC service, like BNE, OOL, SYD and MEL all have. Although AKL has D7, its one-stop service does not equate to a long-haul flight. IMHO, TZ is more likely to commence AKL than 5J, given its more established presence in Australia (5J can still expand to MEL, OOL and elsewhere), and its more efficient fleet (the 787 would be far more economical than the A330, on such a low-yielding long-haul route).

Cheers,

C.


I’m well aware NZ won’t get the 73G and would order ththe A319 if they had a need, so why would they add another type in the CS100 instead then? There is an A319NEO, I think I saw it has a whopping 51 orders, this is what I am trying to say is that the A320 is more effecient and they want to keep fleet types down, they can use multiple ATR’s etc where required.

5J have looked at AKL, maybe you are right the market isn’t there or the economics don’t stack up for the A333, 436 seats would probably require some to be blocked. D7 would face the same problem with AKL-KUL but they have talked about it and I’d give it a good chance of happening given they are established here now, no idea how they are actually doing.

I’m not sure I would see TZ either, really other than Norwegian who runs a successful LCC carrier long haul? SQ are about yield I’m not sure they will allow TZ to serve NZ, sure it could stimulate the market but NZ is a small market.
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