Reading through this thread, i can’t help but read LoI as a poorly cased LOL

Olddog wrote:

I just don't understand that obsession with AF ? They have a ton of Boeing planes....

I don't think people are saying they don't fly Boeing planes. But people who understands the relationship between the French nation and French companies (including private ones) would understand that unless the Airbus equivalent is really crappy (think A346), AF will be compelled to buy Airbus.

And actually they have flown every Airbus model from A300B to A380. The A345 and A346 are the only absence.

And yet, when Airbus guys were interviewed on TV circa A380 launch, they said on the record they had to deal with a stronghold of pro boeing AF pilots...

LupineChemist wrote:

I say IAG to go to both EI and IB. Perfect for connecting smaller cities in Europe to the hub. Not too sure of the capacity situation at DUB, but MAD has plenty of available slots so aircraft size isn't a big issue.

My thoughts also. It would enable EI to adequately serve small cities in Eastern Canada and tertiary cities in Europe, and enable IB to reach small cities in Africa. As had been discussed ad nauseum here, the CSeries isn't conducive to BA's LHR ops so if IAG is the buyer, these 2 are the most likely recipients. That rumor has also been floating around for a while.

The other carrier I can see is SK. LH would've announced it as an add-on since LH group member Swiss already operates them.

UT Air to replace their about 30 active B.737-500...

By the way: Air France also flew every Boeing Jet, except the 717, 720 and 757...

My bet is on LH!

Olddog wrote:

I just don't understand that obsession with AF ? They have a ton of Boeing planes....

Of course they have. It's not all black & white. But it would scratch lots of backs and it would be simply a good deal for AF too.
And a Boeing 737-7 alternative seems kind of unlikely doesn't it..

Jamie514 wrote:

Well, when the AC deal was first announced it was just an LoI too.

Not only AC buth LH also. Don't forget the Cseries was launched with a LOI from LH group, not even a firm order. It was firmed a few months later.

http://www.bombardier.com/en/media/news ... ercom.html

TWA772LR wrote:

LupineChemist wrote:

I say IAG to go to both EI and IB. Perfect for connecting smaller cities in Europe to the hub. Not too sure of the capacity situation at DUB, but MAD has plenty of available slots so aircraft size isn't a big issue.

My thoughts also. It would enable EI to adequately serve small cities in Eastern Canada and tertiary cities in Europe, and enable IB to reach small cities in Africa. As had been discussed ad nauseum here, the CSeries isn't conducive to BA's LHR ops so if IAG is the buyer, these 2 are the most likely recipients. That rumor has also been floating around for a while.

The other carrier I can see is SK. LH would've announced it as an add-on since LH group member Swiss already operates them.

Also offers the idea of being able to offer some of the I2 routes on mainline and possibly be able to up the yields. Routes like AMS or TXL could probably be run better as lower capacity mainline, dowsizing I2 would also make the unions happy.

I doubt it will be AF. AFAIK, with the anecdotal exception of Cocorde, AF mainline hasn't flown anything non-GE/CFMI/EA powered for decades. Now, they will be operating RR-powered A350s, so never say never - but still, incorporating PW engines into their MRO / logistics operations could be an issue.

+ at AF level, they have a hard commitment to the A320 family (never operated DC-9s or derivatives, last 737 retired in 2007). In terms of pilot training and seniority management, interchangeability, commonality, etc. introducing a whole new different type could be a headache. If there's an airline that could use the 319neo, to me it's AF.

AirInterCRV wrote:

...+ at AF level, they have a hard commitment to the A320 family (never operated DC-9s or derivatives, last 737 retired in 2007). In terms of pilot training and seniority management, interchangeability, commonality, etc. introducing a whole new different type could be a headache. If there's an airline that could use the 319neo, to me it's AF.

Exact same thing applies to IB

My bet based on a number of factors is on easyJet.

Great news for Airbus and the C-Series. My bet is on LH. They are rethinking their future orders

Whoever placed the order must have been reading the recent A.net thread asking why orders are always even or in intervals of 5.

AirInsight on this deal:

https://www.airinsight.com/important-as ... rder-news/

Here is what we have been able to discern. This order is not from an existing customer. This is a critical element because it means there is fresh interest in the program. While it would be wonderful for Bombardier if Lufthansa were to buy more aircraft, if Bombardier were to have a choice, a new customer is far more valuable. What this really means is that another customer has undertaken due diligence and found the C Series to be the best option for its fleet needs.

We have been able to discern that this order is for a combination of models. This is also very important as it means both the 110 seat CS100 and 135 seat CS300 continue to attract interest. Interest in both models is positive because it reflects momentum for the program. Critics have noted, with cause, that the C Series program has lacked momentum since the major orders last year. With recent activity, momentum has been regained.

It also suggest Airbus got little to none to do with it:

A key question on everyone’s mind is how the Airbus deal with Bombardier impacted this customer’s decision? It likely had a supportive role. However, this customer had to be working with Bombardier long before the Airbus deal came to light.

TWA772LR wrote:

LupineChemist wrote:

I say IAG to go to both EI and IB. Perfect for connecting smaller cities in Europe to the hub. Not too sure of the capacity situation at DUB, but MAD has plenty of available slots so aircraft size isn't a big issue.

My thoughts also. It would enable EI to adequately serve small cities in Eastern Canada and tertiary cities in Europe.

Could definitely be used by EI to serve smaller European cities and increase frequencies on other routes throughout the day to increase the efficiency of their "DUB-HUB",Cities such as DUS, STR, BRU, BOD, BIO, STG, LYS, GVA, MUC, HAM, HAJ, and perhaps even a re-entry into the Polish and eastern European market. They currently have no suitable aircraft between their 72Y seat ATRs and and 174Y seat A320s. They had previously operated A319s however the fuel burn was almost the same as the A320 and so they were replaced with A320s, upping capacity but leaving them short of a lower capacity aircraft.

The only issues EI would face would be a lack of capacity at Dublin at the moment which; for a lot of the day is running close to capacity, with it's taxiway and parking stand infastructure really feeling the pinch of the rapid growth over the past 7-8 years. This should be significantly eased once the new parallel runway opens in 2020, and there's already talk of a new T3 being in the pipeline as well.

The other issue they would face is that under Aer Lingus pilot's SCOPE agreement, the jets would all have to be operated in house and not by Stobart who operate the ATRs, although the CS100 and CS300 are large enough in seating capacity that that might offset the higher wage bill of Aer Lingus mainline pilots in comparison to the Stobart pilot group.

My safest bet would be on IAG. They said a while back that even though it wasn't yet on their shopping list, they would continue to llok at it as an option.
Willie Walsh (CEO of IAG) said "there's plenty of scope in our future plans to look at the CSeries as a potential aircraft within the IAG fleet". I may be wrong, however.
Some are saying they think it's EasyJet, but I don't think that makes sense. For economical reasons they have been only flying a320 family jets for a while now, and they are doing extremely well. Adding a different type of aircraft would add lots of expenses that an LCC doesn't want.

I highly doubt its LH. I don't think they would waste time with LOI. They have the numbers they need to go straight to an order in my opinion.

ZKOJH wrote:

Could we add bmi regional (BM) into to the mix to replace their aging Emb 135s and 45s - they have been looking to replace them for a while, but 31 is an over kill for the airline.

Aren't BMI own/partnered with a leasing company? There's been talk for a long time about fleet replacement, but I think a total replacement would be too much. They mix of 50 seat (as per current E145) and larger aircraft.

One IAG LHR negative might be their use of containerised cargo, but I understand that BA Gatwick does cargo manually, and is also not so slot limited. IAG has a few Embraer 190 at LCY, these are of a similar size to the CS100, but the latter has more comfort and rather longer range. Wiki suggests 3,100 nm v. 2,450 nm. IB and EI appear realistic users of C Series. So my 3 questions:
1. are there containers which the C Series can sensibly use?
2. is there a need for a substantial IAG fleet to address a possible need for a passenger capacity below that of the A319, A320 and A321?
3. is the CS300 a new generation replacement for oldish A319, in due course?

For sure IAG has the balance sheet strength to fund an investment in smaller aeroplanes, infrastructure, new routes etc etc.

Egerton wrote:

1. are there containers which the C Series can sensibly use?

No, unless BBD/Airbus decide to make a container unique to the C series, but that is very very unlikely to happen considering we don't even have containers for 737s and there are thousands of those flying around. The C series is bulk loading only.

Not familiar enough with IAG to answer your other questions.

How about Volotea?
They seem to have 28 aircraft. All in a similar size as the CS100.

As of September 2017, the Volotea fleet consists of the following 28 aircraft:
Airbus A319-100 9, Boeing 717-200 17, Boeing 737-500 2 (leased from Air X Charter). (c) Wikipedia

Jerry123 wrote:

Flybe?

I'd LOVE to see their purple livery on the CSeries but I doubt they'll get it. Probably a better candidate for the E2.

FlyBe has been facing overcapacity issues the past couple of years. I don't see them springing for the rather large C Series (remember, the CS100 would be about equal in size to their E195s, and the CS300 much larger than anything they operate).

I don't see Volotea ordering new and would expect them to continue with acquiring cheap secondhand aircraft.

Brixerl wrote:

How about Volotea?
They seem to have 28 aircraft. All in a similar size as the CS100.

As of September 2017, the Volotea fleet consists of the following 28 aircraft:
Airbus A319-100 9, Boeing 717-200 17, Boeing 737-500 2 (leased from Air X Charter). (c) Wikipedia

I highly doubt that for a few reasons.
They have "renewed" their fleet recently (from 717 to 319s).
But mainly, this LOI (letter of intent) is for up to 61 aircraft. This is to large an order for an airline that has only 28 aircraft so far (it would be a 200% fleet growth, which is quite rare).
But hey, who knows, maybe we'll have a huge surprise!

Olddog wrote:

I just don't understand that obsession with AF ? They have a ton of Boeing planes....

They do have a lot of Boeing aircraft. However there's a pretty clear divide in the fleet.

The longhaul work horse is the 777, supplemented by a380s, and some a330/a340s. (There are 43 77w alone, versus 45 total Airbus) with only Boeings in order, it's pretty clear that the longhaul fleet is going to be Boeing.

Short /medium haul on the other hand is composed entirely of Airbus. 82 aircraft, all in the Airbus a32x series.

So really, no single preference to either side

Given the political ties between AF, Airbus, the French government, and Quebec this really wouldn't be a big surprise

FGITD wrote:

Olddog wrote:

I just don't understand that obsession with AF ? They have a ton of Boeing planes....

They do have a lot of Boeing aircraft. However there's a pretty clear divide in the fleet.

The longhaul work horse is the 777, supplemented by a380s, and some a330/a340s. (There are 43 77w alone, versus 45 total Airbus) with only Boeings in order, it's pretty clear that the longhaul fleet is going to be Boeing.

Short /medium haul on the other hand is composed entirely of Airbus. 82 aircraft, all in the Airbus a32x series.

So really, no single preference to either side

Given the political ties between AF, Airbus, the French government, and Quebec this really wouldn't be a big surprise

With only Boeing on order? How about that 21 A359 on order?

FGITD wrote:

Olddog wrote:

I just don't understand that obsession with AF ? They have a ton of Boeing planes....

They do have a lot of Boeing aircraft. However there's a pretty clear divide in the fleet.

The longhaul work horse is the 777, supplemented by a380s, and some a330/a340s. (There are 43 77w alone, versus 45 total Airbus) with only Boeings in order, it's pretty clear that the longhaul fleet is going to be Boeing.

AF has plenty of A350s on order...

78 replies and no one is talking about sending the CS100 on a TATL trip? I'm disappointed and relieved at the same time

Martijn

But if it's a large airline needing to replace 50-60 aircraft why not go for LOI for a firm order of 61 aircraft straight away instead of 31+30...?

31+30 means the last 30 may never be more than options and quietly expire. Perhaps a smaller airline got a more favourable deal by ordering big but without having to take the last 30 unless miracles happen.

Norwegian could surprise us all and order the CS100/CS300 to open up new route possibilities...

runway23 wrote:

My bet based on a number of factors is on easyJet.

Even on numerically larger orders than 30, they usually break them down into tranches of 30's, so just a coincidence?

jbs2886 wrote:

FGITD wrote:

Olddog wrote:

I just don't understand that obsession with AF ? They have a ton of Boeing planes....

They do have a lot of Boeing aircraft. However there's a pretty clear divide in the fleet.

The longhaul work horse is the 777, supplemented by a380s, and some a330/a340s. (There are 43 77w alone, versus 45 total Airbus) with only Boeings in order, it's pretty clear that the longhaul fleet is going to be Boeing.

AF has plenty of A350s on order...

Forgot about those, because most of the talk around them is that they will go to Joon.

Which of course is still relevant, because if you bring up the whole AFKL group then the fleet is pretty much all over the place.

Gaspard wrote:

Brixerl wrote:

How about Volotea?
They seem to have 28 aircraft. All in a similar size as the CS100.

As of September 2017, the Volotea fleet consists of the following 28 aircraft:
Airbus A319-100 9, Boeing 717-200 17, Boeing 737-500 2 (leased from Air X Charter). (c) Wikipedia

I highly doubt that for a few reasons.
They have "renewed" their fleet recently (from 717 to 319s).
But mainly, this LOI (letter of intent) is for up to 61 aircraft. This is to large an order for an airline that has only 28 aircraft so far (it would be a 200% fleet growth, which is quite rare).
But hey, who knows, maybe we'll have a huge surprise!

If we are thinking like that then maybe easyJet Switzerland.

FGITD wrote:

jbs2886 wrote:

FGITD wrote:

They do have a lot of Boeing aircraft. However there's a pretty clear divide in the fleet.

The longhaul work horse is the 777, supplemented by a380s, and some a330/a340s. (There are 43 77w alone, versus 45 total Airbus) with only Boeings in order, it's pretty clear that the longhaul fleet is going to be Boeing.

AF has plenty of A350s on order...

Forgot about those, because most of the talk around them is that they will go to Joon.

Which of course is still relevant, because if you bring up the whole AFKL group then the fleet is pretty much all over the place.

I don't think AF has indicated all A350s will go to Joon, just some. Also, Joon isn't a subsidiary of the AF-KLM group directly, but rather a subsidiary of AF.

Finnair has exactly 30 aircraft, between the small buses and the E190 and we all know they are looking for growth

northstardc4m wrote:

LupineChemist wrote:

I say IAG to go to both EI and IB. Perfect for connecting smaller cities in Europe to the hub. Not too sure of the capacity situation at DUB, but MAD has plenty of available slots so aircraft size isn't a big issue.

Problem is EI has nothing in the sub A320 size now...

Who's to say they're not looking for something in that size category?

Aer Lingus has played with the idea of a sub fleet of smaller aircraft before, they leased 4 A319s for about two years recently to operate on thinner routes but like many A319 operators they realised there was little cost advantage and the aircraft were replaced by A320s. The mainline Aer Lingus fleet has nothing smaller than a 174 seat A320 while the largest Aer Lingus Regional aircraft is an ATR 72, that's quite a gap.

Clearly EI see or at least saw the need for a smaller aircraft on their short haul network so it's not totally unrealistic that they would be interested in the C Series.

While long haul at EI is growing at an impressive pace, short haul has stayed flat for a few years now. The A320 is proving too big for new routes and additional frequencies, vital for the future of a successful DUB/HUB strategy.

shamrock350 wrote:

northstardc4m wrote:

LupineChemist wrote:

I say IAG to go to both EI and IB. Perfect for connecting smaller cities in Europe to the hub. Not too sure of the capacity situation at DUB, but MAD has plenty of available slots so aircraft size isn't a big issue.

Problem is EI has nothing in the sub A320 size now...

Who's to say they're not looking for something in that size category?

Aer Lingus has played with the idea of a sub fleet of smaller aircraft before, they leased 4 A319s for about two years recently to operate on thinner routes but like many A319 operators they realised there was little cost advantage and the aircraft were replaced by A320s. The mainline Aer Lingus fleet has nothing smaller than a 174 seat A320 while the largest Aer Lingus Regional aircraft is an ATR 72, that's quite a gap.

Clearly EI see or at least saw the need for a smaller aircraft on their short haul network so it's not totally unrealistic that they would be interested in the C Series.

While long haul at EI is growing at an impressive pace, short haul has stayed flat for a few years now. The A320 is proving too big for new routes and additional frequencies, vital for the future of a successful DUB/HUB strategy.

For an airline the size of EI to jump into new market space to the tune of 31 orders plus 30 options of a brand new type is extremely unlikely. A smaller order sure but 61 aircraft for an airline that only has 48 at present? That's not logical or practical.

northstardc4m wrote:

shamrock350 wrote:

northstardc4m wrote:

Problem is EI has nothing in the sub A320 size now...

Who's to say they're not looking for something in that size category?

Aer Lingus has played with the idea of a sub fleet of smaller aircraft before, they leased 4 A319s for about two years recently to operate on thinner routes but like many A319 operators they realised there was little cost advantage and the aircraft were replaced by A320s. The mainline Aer Lingus fleet has nothing smaller than a 174 seat A320 while the largest Aer Lingus Regional aircraft is an ATR 72, that's quite a gap.

Clearly EI see or at least saw the need for a smaller aircraft on their short haul network so it's not totally unrealistic that they would be interested in the C Series.

While long haul at EI is growing at an impressive pace, short haul has stayed flat for a few years now. The A320 is proving too big for new routes and additional frequencies, vital for the future of a successful DUB/HUB strategy.

For an airline the size of EI to jump into new market space to the tune of 31 orders plus 30 options of a brand new type is extremely unlikely. A smaller order sure but 61 aircraft for an airline that only has 48 at present? That's not logical or practical.

You're correct in saying that but the original post you quoted said the order could go to both EI and IB...

Personally I don't think it's IAG for Aer Lingus or Iberia, at least not yet. Aer Lingus are focused on transatlantic, taking new A330s and the A321neoLR while short haul will eventually need looking at, the fleet is starting to age.

Hey guys,
Is Turkish Airlines considered 'European'?
I also agree that Finnair seems a likely candidate.
IAG would be my other suggestion....
I suspect that Bombardier / Airbus would just LOVE to make this announcement (along with a possible Egyptair order) at Dubai Air Show.
Wonder if Qatar Airways will join the 'party' for the CSeries at Dubai? Might be a bit awkward considering...
Cheers
Bunumuring.

My money is on LH.

Could be LH, but as Karel pointed out in the press release, not an existing customer. While Swiss is really the existing customer, I don't think they'd include that language if it was LH.

I also suspect AF, especially given their A318/19 fleet and the DL ownership stake.

Wow, that's a lot of speculation about a LoI. Let's join.

jbs2886 wrote:

FGITD wrote:

jbs2886 wrote:

AF has plenty of A350s on order...

Forgot about those, because most of the talk around them is that they will go to Joon.

Which of course is still relevant, because if you bring up the whole AFKL group then the fleet is pretty much all over the place.

I don't think AF has indicated all A350s will go to Joon, just some. Also, Joon isn't a subsidiary of the AF-KLM group directly, but rather a subsidiary of AF.

You beated me in bringing up JOON.
I think AF/KLM group for one of there LCC formats, Transavia or JOON are very likely. Especially JOON.
Lets :
If JOON is flying a different type then AF, this means that AF pilots can't fly these birds. So this gives AF(/KLM group) management a leverage over the Pilot and cabin crew unions.
The Transavia pilots are also alertering AF/KLM management, that they need to expand there LCC side in France, otherwise LCC competitors claim the marketplace. [source in dutch]
But I'm just speculating here.

FGITD wrote:

Given the political ties between AF, Airbus, the French government, and Quebec this really wouldn't be a big surprise

"political ties with Quebec"?
I don't think anybody here gives a damn about Quebec - lovely place by the way, or so I've heard, but seriously?...

AirInterCRV wrote:

FGITD wrote:

Given the political ties between AF, Airbus, the French government, and Quebec this really wouldn't be a big surprise

"political ties with Quebec"?
I don't think anybody here gives a damn about Quebec - lovely place by the way, or so I've heard, but seriously?...

I'm not sure I get the argument... Bombarder is based in Quebec, and the government is a major shareholder in Bombardier. Therefore, it is very relevant.

Planesmart wrote:

runway23 wrote:

My bet based on a number of factors is on easyJet.

Even on numerically larger orders than 30, they usually break them down into tranches of 30's, so just a coincidence?

That was one of them, easyJet love to order 30 aircraft at a time - it avoids Stelios getting too angry...

The other reasons were:

-Most airlines could announce orders without delay, easyJet have their full year results on 21 November, it would make sense to announce an order at that point. Recently easyJet's orders have always been at full year or half year results. If U2 were to add another fleet type it would have to be explained to IR.
-The rumours that UA might get some/all of easyJet's 319s would fit in with U2 having alternative plans or at the very least reduced growth plans.
-The CS300 offers significantly lower cost than 319CEOs that will need to exit the fleet at one point or will just be pushed out because of their higher CASM with 320CEOs, not to mention 320neos.
-There aren't many airlines that can make a case for potentially 61 CSeries in Europe, U2 are one of them. They can make scale work in having a dual Airbus/CS fleet.
-easyJet had previously looked into the CSeries and expressed interest
-For the CSeries an easyJet order would be very similar to when easyJet ordered Airbus initially - at the time it was (almost) a widespread belief that only 737s worked for LCCs, Airbus used easyJet (and jetBlue) to prove 320s did as good a job as 737s.

northstardc4m wrote:

LupineChemist wrote:

I say IAG to go to both EI and IB. Perfect for connecting smaller cities in Europe to the hub. Not too sure of the capacity situation at DUB, but MAD has plenty of available slots so aircraft size isn't a big issue.

Problem is EI has nothing in the sub A320 size now...

Now IB only has 16 A319s... not enough to need 61 orders/options. However if you add the 31 CRJ9/CRJ1Ks at Nostrum it doesn't seem that bad of a fit...

BA has 44 A319s by itself... 61 doesn't fit well... but if you add the 14 E190s from Cityflyer... then 58 fits.

I still think though that LH is a better bet, 30 A319s to 31 CS300s. plus 30 options for later use... They have been stable at 30 A319s for some time and haven't ordered any replacement for them unlike the NEO orders for the 320 and 321.

BA are phasing out A319's. The plane is too small for them. I'd be very surprised if it was them. The E190's would be too new for BA to write off.

ap305 wrote:

What is Boeing going to do to stop the rest of the world buying the airbus c series?

The rest of the world's aircraft combined is similar in size to the US fleet. So I don't think Boeing is too worried about non us sales that the C series might be hawking.

raylee67 wrote:

Olddog wrote:

I just don't understand that obsession with AF ? They have a ton of Boeing planes....

I don't think people are saying they don't fly Boeing planes. But people who understands the relationship between the French nation and French companies (including private ones) would understand that unless the Airbus equivalent is really crappy (think A346), AF will be compelled to buy Airbus.

And actually they have flown every Airbus model from A300B to A380. The A345 and A346 are the only absence.

Weirdly enough they have never flown the A333...only the A332. My bet is on a repeat order for the LH group and maybe for LH themselves. Plus the "under wraps" factor can make a bigger splash when announced

runway23 wrote:

Planesmart wrote:

runway23 wrote:

My bet based on a number of factors is on easyJet.

Even on numerically larger orders than 30, they usually break them down into tranches of 30's, so just a coincidence?

That was one of them, easyJet love to order 30 aircraft at a time - it avoids Stelios getting too angry...

The other reasons were:

-Most airlines could announce orders without delay, easyJet have their full year results on 21 November, it would make sense to announce an order at that point. Recently easyJet's orders have always been at full year or half year results. If U2 were to add another fleet type it would have to be explained to IR.
-The rumours that UA might get some/all of easyJet's 319s would fit in with U2 having alternative plans or at the very least reduced growth plans.
-The CS300 offers significantly lower cost than 319CEOs that will need to exit the fleet at one point or will just be pushed out because of their higher CASM with 320CEOs, not to mention 320neos.
-There aren't many airlines that can make a case for potentially 61 CSeries in Europe, U2 are one of them. They can make scale work in having a dual Airbus/CS fleet.
-easyJet had previously looked into the CSeries and expressed interest
-For the CSeries an easyJet order would be very similar to when easyJet ordered Airbus initially - at the time it was (almost) a widespread belief that only 737s worked for LCCs, Airbus used easyJet (and jetBlue) to prove 320s did as good a job as 737s.

I think easyjet is very unlikely. According to AirInsight, this order is for a combination of models, and I don't see Easyjet operating CS100. They have been replacing their A319s with A320s for several years (soon A321). Why go back to a 133 pax model?

tlecam wrote:

Could be LH, but as Karel pointed out in the press release, not an existing customer. While Swiss is really the existing customer, I don't think they'd include that language if it was LH.

I also suspect AF, especially given their A318/19 fleet and the DL ownership stake.

When you think about 100/110 seater-CASM, is there anybody in Europe worse off than AF A318?