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opticalilyushin
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Re: Bombardier announces LoI for 31 (+30 Options) CSeries from an unnamed European Customer

Thu Nov 02, 2017 10:35 pm

Polot wrote:
FlyBe has been facing overcapacity issues the past couple of years. I don't see them springing for the rather large C Series (remember, the CS100 would be about equal in size to their E195s, and the CS300 much larger than anything they operate).


Flybe is very unlikely, however they are looking, the new CEO seems to be very anti-Dash 8. There is talk of an order of new Embraers, the larger capacity justified by the fact they are starting to oversell their Q400 flights now.

As for this order, my money is on LOT as an Embraer/734 replacement, but in SAS colours it would look stunning!
 
LTenEleven
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Re: Bombardier announces LoI for 31 (+30 Options) CSeries from an unnamed European Customer

Thu Nov 02, 2017 10:44 pm

Good chance it is Turkish Airlines.
 
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SheikhDjibouti
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Re: Bombardier announces LoI for 31 (+30 Options) CSeries from an unnamed European Customer

Thu Nov 02, 2017 10:56 pm

shamrock350 wrote:
Aer Lingus.......

I don't have premium access to FR24, but is there anybody out there that can trace the flight schedule of the CS300 demonstrator for the 36 hours that preceeded this..... ?

Image

I recall that it took off from CDG in early morning darkness, timing it's arrival at TLS exactly as dawn broke.
(At least, that was my interpretation of events)
I also have a shrewd idea where it was before reaching CDG, but aside from FR24 is there any other way to track it's movements?
Nothing to see here; move along please.
 
VSMUT
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Re: Bombardier announces LoI for 31 (+30 Options) CSeries from an unnamed European Customer

Thu Nov 02, 2017 10:59 pm

Andre3K wrote:
ap305 wrote:
What is Boeing going to do to stop the rest of the world buying the airbus c series? :stirthepot:


The rest of the world's aircraft combined is similar in size to the US fleet. So I don't think Boeing is too worried about non us sales that the C series might be hawking.


Far from it. North America is the largest, but is leading Asia by less than 200 planes (so actually, the US alone would be smaller, since the figure includes Canada and Mexico). Future forecasts also show a slightly different picture, with the US being relegated to a distant second:

https://www.statista.com/statistics/262 ... worldwide/
Last edited by VSMUT on Thu Nov 02, 2017 11:01 pm, edited 2 times in total.
 
LH982
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Re: Bombardier announces LoI for 31 (+30 Options) CSeries from an unnamed European Customer

Thu Nov 02, 2017 11:00 pm

It was parked up in Dublin for a few days before it's trip to France.
 
SelseyBill
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Re: Bombardier announces LoI for 31 (+30 Options) CSeries from an unnamed European Customer

Thu Nov 02, 2017 11:02 pm

shamrock350 wrote:
northstardc4m wrote:
shamrock350 wrote:
Who's to say they're not looking for something in that size category?

Aer Lingus has played with the idea of a sub fleet of smaller aircraft before, they leased 4 A319s for about two years recently to operate on thinner routes but like many A319 operators they realised there was little cost advantage and the aircraft were replaced by A320s. The mainline Aer Lingus fleet has nothing smaller than a 174 seat A320 while the largest Aer Lingus Regional aircraft is an ATR 72, that's quite a gap.

Clearly EI see or at least saw the need for a smaller aircraft on their short haul network so it's not totally unrealistic that they would be interested in the C Series.

While long haul at EI is growing at an impressive pace, short haul has stayed flat for a few years now. The A320 is proving too big for new routes and additional frequencies, vital for the future of a successful DUB/HUB strategy.


For an airline the size of EI to jump into new market space to the tune of 31 orders plus 30 options of a brand new type is extremely unlikely. A smaller order sure but 61 aircraft for an airline that only has 48 at present? That's not logical or practical.

You're correct in saying that but the original post you quoted said the order could go to both EI and IB...

Personally I don't think it's IAG for Aer Lingus or Iberia, at least not yet. Aer Lingus are focused on transatlantic, taking new A330s and the A321neoLR while short haul will eventually need looking at, the fleet is starting to age.


IAG; maybe yes, but perhaps for VY for growth ?

C-series would be the perfect tool for a growing airline like VY, cost profiles being much better than the typical current B738/A320 low-cost workhorse.
 
iamlucky13
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Re: Bombardier announces LoI for 31 (+30 Options) CSeries from an unnamed European Customer

Thu Nov 02, 2017 11:37 pm

thumper76 wrote:
Couprace wrote:
StTim wrote:
Why would there be tariffs if the frame was exported from the US. That really would be shooting yourself in the foot.


The tariffs would be levied on parts coming into the US ie. wings from Ireland


Last I checked Ireland is not a province in Canada. Do you realize how your statement and that fact will have a negative impact on US trade? Keep isolating yourself...


Whoa there. I'd be willing to bet Couprace isn't the person setting US trade policy, so don't blame him for isolationism. There's also a lot of confusion not just in the forums, but across the aerospace community about how the tariffs will apply in the context of the Bombardier Airbus deal.

It would seem absurd if Commerce were to try to levy the full tariff, based mainly on Canadian subsidies and dumping by a Canadian company, on wings imported from the UK. However, one small portion of the subsidies they ruled on was specific to the Northern Ireland wing factory, so who knows, Boeing and Commerce might get a portion of it to stick.

But we have another thread for that discussion, and Bombardier also has a production line in Canada to handle non-US sales from, so I'll end my comments about the trade dispute here.
 
wezgulf3
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Re: Bombardier announces LoI for 31 (+30 Options) CSeries from an unnamed European Customer

Thu Nov 02, 2017 11:39 pm

Can’t believe this has gone to three pages already, what on earth would happen if AA or UA Order some!!

What about WIZZ???

Wes...
 
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SheikhDjibouti
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Re: Bombardier announces LoI for 31 (+30 Options) CSeries from an unnamed European Customer

Fri Nov 03, 2017 12:37 am

LH982 wrote:
It was parked up in Dublin for a few days before it's trip to France.
Cheers for that; and remind me again - what airlines are based at DUB? :stirthepot:
Nothing to see here; move along please.
 
Jerry123
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Re: Bombardier announces LoI for 31 (+30 Options) CSeries from an unnamed European Customer

Fri Nov 03, 2017 12:49 am

FGITD wrote:
Olddog wrote:
I just don't understand that obsession with AF ? They have a ton of Boeing planes....


They do have a lot of Boeing aircraft. However there's a pretty clear divide in the fleet.

The longhaul work horse is the 777, supplemented by a380s, and some a330/a340s. (There are 43 77w alone, versus 45 total Airbus) with only Boeings in order, it's pretty clear that the longhaul fleet is going to be Boeing.

Short /medium haul on the other hand is composed entirely of Airbus. 82 aircraft, all in the Airbus a32x series.

So really, no single preference to either side

Given the political ties between AF, Airbus, the French government, and Quebec this really wouldn't be a big surprise

Air France do have 56 A318 and A319 aircraft so they could be looking at the C series as a replacement for them not to mention they may send some to their new airline Joon. I think it's called that!
 
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LoftleidirDC8
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Re: Bombardier announces LoI for 31 (+30 Options) CSeries from an unnamed European Customer

Fri Nov 03, 2017 12:56 am

Couprace wrote:
StTim wrote:
Why would there be tariffs if the frame was exported from the US. That really would be shooting yourself in the foot.



The tariffs would be levied on parts coming into the US ie. wings from Ireland


That would also hurt Boeing if parts were subject to import tariffs. Remember that huge assemblies on the 787 / 777 are imported for final assembly in the US.

Back on topic.... An order that large could rebuild an entire narrow body fleet..... I can't decide.
 
Andre3K
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Re: Bombardier announces LoI for 31 (+30 Options) CSeries from an unnamed European Customer

Fri Nov 03, 2017 3:16 am

VSMUT wrote:
Andre3K wrote:
ap305 wrote:
What is Boeing going to do to stop the rest of the world buying the airbus c series? :stirthepot:


The rest of the world's aircraft combined is similar in size to the US fleet. So I don't think Boeing is too worried about non us sales that the C series might be hawking.


Far from it. North America is the largest, but is leading Asia by less than 200 planes (so actually, the US alone would be smaller, since the figure includes Canada and Mexico). Future forecasts also show a slightly different picture, with the US being relegated to a distant second:

https://www.statista.com/statistics/262 ... worldwide/


Where did I say something wrong? I said SIMILAR in size. And that was just a guess.
 
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lightsaber
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Re: Bombardier announces LoI for 31 (+30 Options) CSeries from an unnamed European Customer

Fri Nov 03, 2017 3:56 am

KarelXWB wrote:
We should find out soon as Bombardier expects to finalize the deal in the next two months.

Wow will we speculate for two months!


31 isn't huge, but at this point it helps. I could see Air Lingus or Easyjet. But honestly, I have no clue at this time.

Lightsaber
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thumper76
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Re: Bombardier announces LoI for 31 (+30 Options) CSeries from an unnamed European Customer

Fri Nov 03, 2017 4:19 am

iamlucky13 wrote:
thumper76 wrote:
Couprace wrote:

The tariffs would be levied on parts coming into the US ie. wings from Ireland


Last I checked Ireland is not a province in Canada. Do you realize how your statement and that fact will have a negative impact on US trade? Keep isolating yourself...


Whoa there. I'd be willing to bet Couprace isn't the person setting US trade policy, so don't blame him for isolationism. There's also a lot of confusion not just in the forums, but across the aerospace community about how the tariffs will apply in the context of the Bombardier Airbus deal.

It would seem absurd if Commerce were to try to levy the full tariff, based mainly on Canadian subsidies and dumping by a Canadian company, on wings imported from the UK. However, one small portion of the subsidies they ruled on was specific to the Northern Ireland wing factory, so who knows, Boeing and Commerce might get a portion of it to stick.

But we have another thread for that discussion, and Bombardier also has a production line in Canada to handle non-US sales from, so I'll end my comments about the trade dispute here.

What seems absurd to me is how some people truly believe that a US governed DOC can set a tariff of nearly 300% based on boeings cost figures. How can one expect a company to give information that directly relates to R&D? BBD was put in an impossible situation. Most of the money tied up in a clean sheet design airliner is in R&D. Was the DOC asking for information pertaining to the cost of the cseries? Yes it was! And when BBD did not give them sufficient information likely dew to not wanting to give out R&D data, the DOC used boeings estimate to set the tariff amount. BBD was put in a impossible situation by Boeing and the DOC.
Thankfully airbus put stake in the cseries witch will ensure that it can reach the WTO. For those who are curious about current US trade please look into what is happening with nafta. Trade without policies set to protect trade only allows those with power to effectively trade. What is happening against BBD is a forecast of future trade with the US. Please look into this to form your own opinion, knowledge is power that ALL can attain. God be with you
 
astuteman
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Re: Bombardier announces LoI for 31 (+30 Options) CSeries from an unnamed European Customer

Fri Nov 03, 2017 8:07 am

Andre3K wrote:
VSMUT wrote:
Andre3K wrote:

The rest of the world's aircraft combined is similar in size to the US fleet. So I don't think Boeing is too worried about non us sales that the C series might be hawking.


Far from it. North America is the largest, but is leading Asia by less than 200 planes (so actually, the US alone would be smaller, since the figure includes Canada and Mexico). Future forecasts also show a slightly different picture, with the US being relegated to a distant second:

https://www.statista.com/statistics/262 ... worldwide/


Where did I say something wrong? I said SIMILAR in size. And that was just a guess.


The "similar" is fundamentally wrong. Which is what I think has led to your conclusion IMO also being wrong.

The current fleet is c. 23 000 aircraft of which 7 000 are in "North America".
If the USA is 80% of that figure, say 5 500 aircraft, that leaves 17 500 aircraft in the rest of the world.
In other words only 1 in 4 of today's fleet is in the USA.

VSMUT is right though. Today's fleet is not the issue. Future sales are.
If you follow his link, in the next 20 years, the fleet will be some 47 000 aircraft of which 10 000 will be in "North America".
Again, if USA is 80% of that figure, i.e. 8 000 aircraft, that leaves 39 000 aircraft in the rest of the world
In other words only 1 in 6 of the future fleet will be in the USA.

You don't think Boeing should be too worried about non-US sales?
Their behaviour says they're not. They probably should be.
IMO the current protectionist stance over the C-Series is a Genie they've let out of the bottle that is never going to go back in.
And I don't think it will be good for Boeing in the long term.

Rgds
 
columba
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Re: Bombardier announces LoI for 31 (+30 Options) CSeries from an unnamed European Customer

Fri Nov 03, 2017 8:11 am

sergegva wrote:
I think easyjet is very unlikely. According to AirInsight, this order is for a combination of models, and I don't see Easyjet operating CS100. They have been replacing their A319s with A320s for several years (soon A321). Why go back to a 133 pax model?

Well, the situation has changed since the Brexit also they are starting new operations from TXL.........
It will forever be a McDonnell Douglas MD 80 , Boeing MD 80 sounds so wrong
 
runway23
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Re: Bombardier announces LoI for 31 (+30 Options) CSeries from an unnamed European Customer

Fri Nov 03, 2017 8:58 am

sergegva wrote:
I think easyjet is very unlikely. According to AirInsight, this order is for a combination of models, and I don't see Easyjet operating CS100. They have been replacing their A319s with A320s for several years (soon A321). Why go back to a 133 pax model?


I don't agree here. easyJet is going to larger A320 models because these are more efficient for their larger constrained airports - a 235 A321 is good if you can fill it - but there are many routes on easyJet's network that are better served by a 135-160 passenger plane or where easyJet has lower their yield just to fill their aircraft. The 319neo is a dog and simply inefficient compared to the 320neo. That said, not all of easyJet's bases need A320s (not to mention 321s). If you look at the current erosion of fares in Europe having a smaller type in their fleet with comparable CASM to a 320neo would actually be a good idea. The CS300 is a lot more efficient than the 319neo and would also give easyJet the option of a smaller CS100 to go after different types of markets or increase frequencies.

In my opinion, easyJet could also get away with having some bases entirely 320/321, others CSeries and some a mix. easyJet's schedule already has a high number of W/triangle patterns, which would help optimize scheduling/capacity out of airports where the other type isn't based.
 
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KarelXWB
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Re: Bombardier announces LoI for 31 (+30 Options) CSeries from an unnamed European Customer

Fri Nov 03, 2017 9:00 am

runway23 wrote:
I don't agree here. easyJet is going to larger A320 models because these are more efficient for their larger constrained airports - a 235 A321 is good if you can fill it - but there are many routes on easyJet's network that are better served by a 135-160 passenger plane or where easyJet has lower their yield just to fill their aircraft. Not all of easyJet's bases need A320s (not to mention 321s). If you look at the current erosion of fares in Europe having a smaller type in their fleet with comparable CASM to a 320neo would actually be a good idea.


Then why did easyJet not order the A319neo before?
What we leave behind is not as important as how we've lived.
 
columba
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Re: Bombardier announces LoI for 31 (+30 Options) CSeries from an unnamed European Customer

Fri Nov 03, 2017 9:17 am

KarelXWB wrote:
runway23 wrote:
I don't agree here. easyJet is going to larger A320 models because these are more efficient for their larger constrained airports - a 235 A321 is good if you can fill it - but there are many routes on easyJet's network that are better served by a 135-160 passenger plane or where easyJet has lower their yield just to fill their aircraft. Not all of easyJet's bases need A320s (not to mention 321s). If you look at the current erosion of fares in Europe having a smaller type in their fleet with comparable CASM to a 320neo would actually be a good idea.


Then why did easyJet not order the A319neo before?


Given the few orders the A319neo has it seems it is not that great of a performer so many airlines - not only Easyjet - seemed reluctant to order it and opted for the larger A320neo instead
It will forever be a McDonnell Douglas MD 80 , Boeing MD 80 sounds so wrong
 
OlafW
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Re: Bombardier announces LoI for 31 (+30 Options) CSeries from an unnamed European Customer

Fri Nov 03, 2017 9:20 am

Gaspard wrote:
Brixerl wrote:
How about Volotea?
They seem to have 28 aircraft. All in a similar size as the CS100.

As of September 2017, the Volotea fleet consists of the following 28 aircraft:
Airbus A319-100 9, Boeing 717-200 17, Boeing 737-500 2 (leased from Air X Charter). (c) Wikipedia


I highly doubt that for a few reasons.
They have "renewed" their fleet recently (from 717 to 319s).
But mainly, this LOI (letter of intent) is for up to 61 aircraft. This is to large an order for an airline that has only 28 aircraft so far (it would be a 200% fleet growth, which is quite rare).
But hey, who knows, maybe we'll have a huge surprise!


Volotea is also my guess.
- Yes, they only ordered 319s recently, but it also seems that with 6 of them they already finished that sub-fleet. I didn't see anything that further examples would be added.
- Plans were to become an all Airbus fleet after retiring the 717s. That was before the Airbus/Bombardier deal came up, so this would still be fitting.
- The current fleet is 28, so 31 would allow for a little growth initially (leaving out the two leased ones it's 26, so there we would have 5 extra orders - fitting the "even or multiples of 5" scheme - , and the other 30 as options for additional growth. This seems steep, but then again, the Volotea founders also started Vueling and their fleet grew to over 100 within little more than 10 years. So management seems to know how to handle such growth.

It'll be interesting to watch.
 
Jomar777
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Re: Bombardier announces LoI for 31 (+30 Options) CSeries from an unnamed European Customer

Fri Nov 03, 2017 9:23 am

It is not Easyjet neither Ryanair. Can for get about those.
LOT seems possible as well as AF/KLM to be used either on the AF Fleet or on their new start-up (not KLM). They are closing their relationship with CityJet and might use them for LCY operations and other SH destinations. If the Airbus deal was tied up before the LOI, I would say it would be A making a statement of intent on the project by ensuring a headline order.
LH Group could be a new clear certainty since they have across their group loads of old 736s, CRJs, etc. that can be replaced.
Wizzair is will not order them now and I do not see IAG (BA and Iberia) doing anything right now.
Note that the LOI is from an European CUSTOMER (not necessarily an Airline) so it might be a Leasing Company which will dilute the frames across their customer base.
 
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PatrickZ80
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Re: Bombardier announces LoI for 31 (+30 Options) CSeries from an unnamed European Customer

Fri Nov 03, 2017 9:42 am

OlafW wrote:
Volotea is also my guess.
- Yes, they only ordered 319s recently, but it also seems that with 6 of them they already finished that sub-fleet. I didn't see anything that further examples would be added.
- Plans were to become an all Airbus fleet after retiring the 717s. That was before the Airbus/Bombardier deal came up, so this would still be fitting.
- The current fleet is 28, so 31 would allow for a little growth initially (leaving out the two leased ones it's 26, so there we would have 5 extra orders - fitting the "even or multiples of 5" scheme - , and the other 30 as options for additional growth. This seems steep, but then again, the Volotea founders also started Vueling and their fleet grew to over 100 within little more than 10 years. So management seems to know how to handle such growth.

It'll be interesting to watch.


My thoughts exactly, it would be the perfect plane for them.

On the other hand, I wouldn't rule out Wizzair. Recently there was a rumour about them adding flights from Luton to America and Canada, but the discussion came down to the fact that they'd need a refueling stop. St. Pierre was mentioned for that as it is technically part of the EU and because of the short runway in St. Pierre it would be perfect for the C-series. Of course 31 is a bit over the top for such an operation, let alone 61. But maybe they'd use them on thinner routes within their own network as well.

Still my money is on Volotea.
 
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BawliBooch
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Re: Bombardier announces LoI for 31 (+30 Options) CSeries from an unnamed European Customer

Fri Nov 03, 2017 9:58 am

My bet is on SAS.

9 of the 18 A320NEO are earmarked for the proposed Irish expansion. So 9 aircraft to replace all the 737-600 and part of the 737-700 fleet.
737-600 + 737-600 in fleet = 45. Approx 30 units to be replaced - about the size of the order.

31 options - those could be the larger CS300 to replace the 24 or so 737-800's in the fleet. Essentially shifting to an all "Airbus" fleet.
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WIederling
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Re: Bombardier announces LoI for 31 (+30 Options) CSeries from an unnamed European Customer

Fri Nov 03, 2017 10:24 am

Andre3K wrote:
ap305 wrote:
What is Boeing going to do to stop the rest of the world buying the airbus c series? :stirthepot:


The rest of the world's aircraft combined is similar in size to the US fleet. So I don't think Boeing is too worried about non us sales that the C series might be hawking.


Already sold planes are of no interest. Where is growth? Afaics not in the US :-)
Murphy is an optimist
 
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Jayafe
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Re: Bombardier announces LoI for 31 (+30 Options) CSeries from an unnamed European Customer

Fri Nov 03, 2017 11:02 am

OlafW wrote:

Volotea is also my guess.
- Yes, they only ordered 319s recently, but it also seems that with 6 of them they already finished that sub-fleet.


Volotea is an airline that has made the low-radar flight and slow growth an identity signature. Going from B717 to A319 was already a big step and increased financial exposure, as their management (ex-VY) was cost conscious over all (and extremely regional subsidies dependant). They had other options and even discarded having a mixed fleet.

OlafW wrote:
- Plans were to become an all Airbus fleet after retiring the 717s. That was before the Airbus/Bombardier deal came up, so this would still be fitting.


BBD has stated that this deal comes from long before the Airbus deal. Aside, they seem to have 28 planes in their fleet, all second hand +10years old on purpose. 30+30 brand new birds would be a massive increase and an insane risk for them.

No option at all for me.
 
rouelan
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Re: Bombardier announces LoI for 31 (+30 Options) CSeries from an unnamed European Customer

Fri Nov 03, 2017 11:45 am

Jayafe wrote:

Volotea is an airline that has made the low-radar flight and slow growth an identity signature.



Ahem, 30% growth each year is not what I would call slow growth.
But their trademark is very high seasonality, which implies cheap assets (second hand aircraft).

So, I agree, I dont see them in this story
 
Gaspard
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Re: Bombardier announces LoI for 31 (+30 Options) CSeries from an unnamed European Customer

Fri Nov 03, 2017 12:58 pm

Jayafe wrote:

BBD has stated that this deal comes from long before the Airbus deal. Aside, they seem to have 28 planes in their fleet, all second hand +10years old on purpose. 30+30 brand new birds would be a massive increase and an insane risk for them.

No option at all for me.


That's exactly what I was thinking.

It also seems we haven't been talking about leasing companies very much, and it is possible it would be one...

It'll be exiting to see.
 
thumper76
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Re: Bombardier announces LoI for 31 (+30 Options) CSeries from an unnamed European Customer

Fri Nov 03, 2017 1:42 pm

Gaspard wrote:
Jayafe wrote:

BBD has stated that this deal comes from long before the Airbus deal. Aside, they seem to have 28 planes in their fleet, all second hand +10years old on purpose. 30+30 brand new birds would be a massive increase and an insane risk for them.

No option at all for me.


That's exactly what I was thinking.

It also seems we haven't been talking about leasing companies very much, and it is possible it would be one...

It'll be exiting to see.

Being that a leasing company would spread the cseries over a wider market, it would give the cseries great exposure... Yes exiting times!
 
bunumuring
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Re: Bombardier announces LoI for 31 (+30 Options) CSeries from an unnamed European Customer

Fri Nov 03, 2017 1:44 pm

Still think it's Turkish Airlines...
And yes, I believe it can be called a 'European' customer...
But I also the appreciate the logic behind the easyJet thinking.
Cheers,
Bunumuring
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caribb
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Re: Bombardier announces LoI for 31 (+30 Options) CSeries from an unnamed European Customer

Fri Nov 03, 2017 1:54 pm

https://www.airinsight.com/important-as ... -news/amp/

This article suggests the order is from an EU based airline and from a new customer not an existing. It’s also says it comprises the CS100 and CS300.
 
VSMUT
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Re: Bombardier announces LoI for 31 (+30 Options) CSeries from an unnamed European Customer

Fri Nov 03, 2017 2:13 pm

BawliBooch wrote:
My bet is on SAS.

9 of the 18 A320NEO are earmarked for the proposed Irish expansion. So 9 aircraft to replace all the 737-600 and part of the 737-700 fleet.
737-600 + 737-600 in fleet = 45. Approx 30 units to be replaced - about the size of the order.

31 options - those could be the larger CS300 to replace the 24 or so 737-800's in the fleet. Essentially shifting to an all "Airbus" fleet.


The Irish expansion is just a paper maneuver to pay crews smaller wages. The aircraft will be flying the exact same routes as they would have otherwise in Scandinavia, and replacing the exact same aircraft. They aren't opening any new routes or basing aircraft in Ireland, London or Malaga, just basing the crews there.
 
jbs2886
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Re: Bombardier announces LoI for 31 (+30 Options) CSeries from an unnamed European Customer

Fri Nov 03, 2017 2:20 pm

Jomar777 wrote:
LH Group could be a new clear certainty since they have across their group loads of old 736s, CRJs, etc. that can be replaced.


LH group doesn't have any 736s....
 
ExMilitaryEng
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Re: Bombardier announces LoI for 31 (+30 Options) CSeries from an unnamed European Customer

Fri Nov 03, 2017 2:45 pm

thumper76 wrote:
Thankfully Airbus put stake in the CSeries witch will ensure that it can reach the WTO. For those who are curious about current US trade please look into what is happening with NAFTA. Trade without policies set to protect trade only allows those with power to effectively trade. What is happening against BBD is a forecast of future trade with the US. Please look into this to form your own opinion, knowledge is power that ALL can attain.

So true.

Up until the Airbus announcement, the BBD/CSeries "destruction" threat was used as a negotiation tool at the NAFTA table. Well, guess what, not anymore...

For those who think that BBD have/had any chances in ever winning this case against Boeing; look closely at the softwood lumber dispute (which has been going on for the last few decades). Canada won numerous appeals/reviews and the US none. But still, the US lumber lobbies found ways to alter slightly their complaints to ensure this same Commerce Dept keeps slamming Canadian lumber producers with duties. (or forcing a "negotiated" solution under this heavy bullying).

Thanks goodness, we have a free trade agreement in place with Europe.
Last edited by ExMilitaryEng on Fri Nov 03, 2017 3:10 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
thumper76
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Re: Bombardier announces LoI for 31 (+30 Options) CSeries from an unnamed European Customer

Fri Nov 03, 2017 3:00 pm

caribb wrote:
https://www.airinsight.com/important-aspects-bombardiers-c-series-order-news/amp/

This article suggests the order is from an EU based airline and from a new customer not an existing. It’s also says it comprises the CS100 and CS300.

Positive momentum is a sign of good things to come
 
TranscendZac
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Re: Bombardier announces LoI for 31 (+30 Options) CSeries from an unnamed European Customer

Fri Nov 03, 2017 4:32 pm

Olddog wrote:
I just don't understand that obsession with AF ? They have a ton of Boeing planes....

And a ton of airbus narrow bodies. As a manufacturer, Airbus is in much better shape to offer next gen narrow body aircraft with now the A2X NEO and C-Series that suits AF’s needs.
Zac
 
Dash9
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Re: Bombardier announces LoI for 31 (+30 Options) CSeries from an unnamed European Customer

Fri Nov 03, 2017 5:48 pm

bunumuring wrote:
Still think it's Turkish Airlines...
And yes, I believe it can be called a 'European' customer...
But I also the appreciate the logic behind the easyJet thinking.
Cheers,
Bunumuring


Well technically Turkey is a country than spans both Europe and Asia, just like Russia. Still 95% of its land mass is in Asia so most of the time it is refereed to as being in Asia (Middle East is Asia). But then one could argue that Turkish Airlines hub is on the European side of Istanbul, so....

-Dash9
 
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JetBuddy
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Re: Bombardier announces LoI for 31 (+30 Options) CSeries from an unnamed European Customer

Fri Nov 03, 2017 6:16 pm

So we know that it's a customer that is new to the type, is based in the EU and wants both CS100 and CS300. The CS300 demonstrator was in Dublin lately before heading to Paris (I think). So IAG or AF/KLM would make sense.

Personally I'd love to see it in SAS colors, but I would be very surprised if it turns out SAS is the customer. They're moving towards an A320-series narrowbody fleet, with supplements of CRJ and ATR outsourced. The C-Series would be perfect for operations in Norway, but I don't think they'd do that without phasing out all the 737s. But that might happen either way.
 
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lightsaber
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Re: Bombardier announces LoI for 31 (+30 Options) CSeries from an unnamed European Customer

Fri Nov 03, 2017 6:33 pm

KarelXWB wrote:
runway23 wrote:
I don't agree here. easyJet is going to larger A320 models because these are more efficient for their larger constrained airports - a 235 A321 is good if you can fill it - but there are many routes on easyJet's network that are better served by a 135-160 passenger plane or where easyJet has lower their yield just to fill their aircraft. Not all of easyJet's bases need A320s (not to mention 321s). If you look at the current erosion of fares in Europe having a smaller type in their fleet with comparable CASM to a 320neo would actually be a good idea.


Then why did easyJet not order the A319neo before?

The A319NEO doesn't save much per flight over the A320NEO. Because of the weight increase and thrust bump,the A319NEO and A320NEO cost per flight is closer than an A319CEO and A320CEO. For example, before the latest CEO PIPs, the engines on the A320CEO cost about 12% more to maintain than the A319CEO (fewer cycles between overhauls) The NEO engine costs the same to maintain.

The CS300 has about the CASM of the A320NEO. A much lower cost per flight than the A319NEO due to weight and slightly lower engine maintenance costs; the PW1100G is a more advanced engine as noted by it's higher compression ratio, but that advantage goes away down at A319 throttle levels. Why? At part throttle the engine runs at less thrust, which drops the pressure ratio. It is also too high of drag fan for a plane that only needs 24k of thrust. The fan is over-optimized for the A320 2 hour mission. For the A320NEO, the fan is oversized for shorter missions. Pratt went for the A321NEO (fan is undersized, but only a little). Same with the LEAP. With the NEO, Airbus picked engines on 2 hours on the A320 and overall on the A321.

Yes picked. Just as Boeing has CFM optimize the LEAP core for the MAX, Airbus typically looks at 50 to 100 engine configurations from each vendor and the optimizes. For example, once Airbus picked a smaller fan diameter as that allowed them to better optimize wing aerodynamics. The wing improvement was greater than the loss of engine efficiency.

The same was true of the C-series. The PW1500G is the best CS300 engine that can be grown to 27k of thrust. :).

Lightsaber
Winter is coming.
 
caribb
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Re: Bombardier announces LoI for 31 (+30 Options) CSeries from an unnamed European Customer

Fri Nov 03, 2017 6:36 pm

Dash9 wrote:
bunumuring wrote:
Still think it's Turkish Airlines...
And yes, I believe it can be called a 'European' customer...
But I also the appreciate the logic behind the easyJet thinking.
Cheers,
Bunumuring


Well technically Turkey is a country than spans both Europe and Asia, just like Russia. Still 95% of its land mass is in Asia so most of the time it is refereed to as being in Asia (Middle East is Asia). But then one could argue that Turkish Airlines hub is on the European side of Istanbul, so....

-Dash9


I’d love it to be Turkish but Turkey isn’t in the EU and the order comes from an EU member.
 
thumper76
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Re: Bombardier announces LoI for 31 (+30 Options) CSeries from an unnamed European Customer

Fri Nov 03, 2017 6:54 pm

Airlines have to make their orders taking into consideration what aircraft will be available in the distant future to ensure future cominality. Therefore a airline will lean towards the most advanced type at the time witch will ensure that the type will be manufactured for many years to come. The only reason to not do so is to maintain cominality. At some point Boeing and Airbus have to consider this. IMHO Airbus has already taken that into account, now they have to find a way to make the transition as seamless as possible. Boeing is still running with a old design that has been improved to the max(no pun intended) therefore airlines now have to consider the fact that future cominality may not be there. Airlines may opt away from the 737 and work on the cominality issue now instead of waiting for the future. Therefore I would not be surprised if some airlines flying not yet dated 737's opt for the cseries.

These are really interesting times, who knows what will happen!
 
SteelChair
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Re: Bombardier announces LoI for 31 (+30 Options) CSeries from an unnamed European Customer

Fri Nov 03, 2017 7:22 pm

I wonder about the effect of the global alliances on aircraft orders going forward. Delta already has their large CSeries order, KAL also has an order. It would seem to logically follow that AF/KLM would be interested also.
 
Dash9
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Re: Bombardier announces LoI for 31 (+30 Options) CSeries from an unnamed European Customer

Fri Nov 03, 2017 8:02 pm

caribb wrote:
Dash9 wrote:
bunumuring wrote:
Still think it's Turkish Airlines...
And yes, I believe it can be called a 'European' customer...
But I also the appreciate the logic behind the easyJet thinking.
Cheers,
Bunumuring


Well technically Turkey is a country than spans both Europe and Asia, just like Russia. Still 95% of its land mass is in Asia so most of the time it is refereed to as being in Asia (Middle East is Asia). But then one could argue that Turkish Airlines hub is on the European side of Istanbul, so....

-Dash9


I’d love it to be Turkish but Turkey isn’t in the EU and the order comes from an EU member.



Nope, they said 'European customer' not 'EU' customer. Switzerland is definitely in Europe but not in EU. Same for UK after Brexit. Same for a small portion of Turkey which include the occidental half of Istanbul, the Ataturk airport, the new airport under construction and the Turkish airline HQ.

http://www.bombardier.com/en/media/news ... ercom.html
 
YIMBY
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Re: Bombardier announces LoI for 31 (+30 Options) CSeries from an unnamed European Customer

Fri Nov 03, 2017 8:32 pm

runway23 wrote:
Planesmart wrote:
runway23 wrote:
My bet based on a number of factors is on easyJet.

Even on numerically larger orders than 30, they usually break them down into tranches of 30's, so just a coincidence?


That was one of them, easyJet love to order 30 aircraft at a time - it avoids Stelios getting too angry...

The other reasons were:

-Most airlines could announce orders without delay, easyJet have their full year results on 21 November, it would make sense to announce an order at that point. Recently easyJet's orders have always been at full year or half year results. If U2 were to add another fleet type it would have to be explained to IR.
-The rumours that UA might get some/all of easyJet's 319s would fit in with U2 having alternative plans or at the very least reduced growth plans.
-The CS300 offers significantly lower cost than 319CEOs that will need to exit the fleet at one point or will just be pushed out because of their higher CASM with 320CEOs, not to mention 320neos.
-There aren't many airlines that can make a case for potentially 61 CSeries in Europe, U2 are one of them. They can make scale work in having a dual Airbus/CS fleet.
-easyJet had previously looked into the CSeries and expressed interest
-For the CSeries an easyJet order would be very similar to when easyJet ordered Airbus initially - at the time it was (almost) a widespread belief that only 737s worked for LCCs, Airbus used easyJet (and jetBlue) to prove 320s did as good a job as 737s.


How many passengers they could put in a 130 seat aircraft?
 
caribb
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Re: Bombardier announces LoI for 31 (+30 Options) CSeries from an unnamed European Customer

Fri Nov 03, 2017 8:40 pm

Dash9 wrote:
caribb wrote:
Dash9 wrote:

Well technically Turkey is a country than spans both Europe and Asia, just like Russia. Still 95% of its land mass is in Asia so most of the time it is refereed to as being in Asia (Middle East is Asia). But then one could argue that Turkish Airlines hub is on the European side of Istanbul, so....

-Dash9


I’d love it to be Turkish but Turkey isn’t in the EU and the order comes from an EU member.



Nope, they said 'European customer' not 'EU' customer. Switzerland is definitely in Europe but not in EU. Same for UK after Brexit. Same for a small portion of Turkey which include the occidental half of Istanbul, the Ataturk airport, the new airport under construction and the Turkish airline HQ.

http://www.bombardier.com/en/media/news ... ercom.html


https://www.airinsight.com/important-as ... -news/amp/

This article I posted earlier says EU member. It is the only article I’ve seen so far to specify this. So who knows if it’s true or if the author just stated it incorrectly. We’ll know soon enough. For sure it’s an airline based in Europe.
 
JamesCousins
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Re: Bombardier announces LoI for 31 (+30 Options) CSeries from an unnamed European Customer

Fri Nov 03, 2017 8:49 pm

TheDBCooper wrote:
Wild Card, Jet2 for replacement of x18 737-300, still growing and not afraid of a mixed fleet. I remember seeing something in a promo video for the C Series that had a Jet 2 executive in it.


"Mixed fleet", aside from the odd short-term A320 & A330 summer leases Jet2 are exclusively 737 & 757. That being said, they'd be a great candidate on the 'high-and-dry' airports, with the 2-3 working great for couples and families. Jet2 seem to be growing fairly rapidly though, and it doesn't look like they need aircraft of that capacity (especially in that quantity)
Q400, A320-200, A321-200, 737-500, 737-800, 747-400, 757-200, 787-9 // FCA, TOM, TUI, MON, MT, BA, VS, DL, BE, X9, OLY // Upcoming: W6 A320, W6 A321, EVA 77W, VS 787-9m AS A320, VS A35K, KLM E190, KLM 738, LS 737
 
JamesCousins
Posts: 484
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Re: Bombardier announces LoI for 31 (+30 Options) CSeries from an unnamed European Customer

Fri Nov 03, 2017 8:53 pm

columba wrote:
sergegva wrote:
I think easyjet is very unlikely. According to AirInsight, this order is for a combination of models, and I don't see Easyjet operating CS100. They have been replacing their A319s with A320s for several years (soon A321). Why go back to a 133 pax model?

Well, the situation has changed since the Brexit also they are starting new operations from TXL.........


Tbh, I highly doubt Brexit will have that big an impact on EasyJet's operations. Unless Brexit causes ridiculous ticket price hikes, people will book with EasyJet irrespective of politics.
Q400, A320-200, A321-200, 737-500, 737-800, 747-400, 757-200, 787-9 // FCA, TOM, TUI, MON, MT, BA, VS, DL, BE, X9, OLY // Upcoming: W6 A320, W6 A321, EVA 77W, VS 787-9m AS A320, VS A35K, KLM E190, KLM 738, LS 737
 
VSMUT
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Re: Bombardier announces LoI for 31 (+30 Options) CSeries from an unnamed European Customer

Fri Nov 03, 2017 9:48 pm

JetBuddy wrote:
The C-Series would be perfect for operations in Norway, but I don't think they'd do that without phasing out all the 737s. But that might happen either way.


How many 737s are based in Norway, and how many of them are 737-800s? The C-series family is just too small to replace the 737-800, and I just can't see them going for a mixed fleet of CS100, CS300 and 737-800, on top of all the A320 variants based in Denmark and Sweden. Could they be the launch customer for the CS500?
 
Tunnelvision
Posts: 4
Joined: Fri Nov 03, 2017 9:48 pm

Re: Bombardier announces LoI for 31 (+30 Options) CSeries from an unnamed European Customer

Fri Nov 03, 2017 9:58 pm

So rumor a little bird told me it was cityjet?! Apparently they aren’t happy with the super jets reliably and support so are pulling the plug phasing the sukhoi out and canceling the remaining orders. That’s why it was in Dublin with cityjet management climbing all over it.....
 
Bostrom
Posts: 1003
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Re: Bombardier announces LoI for 31 (+30 Options) CSeries from an unnamed European Customer

Fri Nov 03, 2017 10:55 pm

VSMUT wrote:
JetBuddy wrote:
The C-Series would be perfect for operations in Norway, but I don't think they'd do that without phasing out all the 737s. But that might happen either way.


How many 737s are based in Norway, and how many of them are 737-800s? The C-series family is just too small to replace the 737-800, and I just can't see them going for a mixed fleet of CS100, CS300 and 737-800, on top of all the A320 variants based in Denmark and Sweden. Could they be the launch customer for the CS500?


There has been rumours about SAS looking at the Cseries, but I'm not sure if there is any truth behind the rumours. But even if it is, 31+30 would be a big order for SAS. They have 58 737s at the moment (not counting the 737-600 that are being retired), and will as you mention need something bigger to replace the 737-800.
 
DDR
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Re: Bombardier announces LoI for 31 (+30 Options) CSeries from an unnamed European Customer

Fri Nov 03, 2017 11:10 pm

WIederling wrote:
Andre3K wrote:
ap305 wrote:
What is Boeing going to do to stop the rest of the world buying the airbus c series? :stirthepot:


The rest of the world's aircraft combined is similar in size to the US fleet. So I don't think Boeing is too worried about non us sales that the C series might be hawking.


Already sold planes are of no interest. Where is growth? Afaics not in the US :-)


Wow, your jealousy of the US is bizarre. You bring up the US in almost all of your posts.

I hope that it is AF that orders the jets. Would look good in AF colors!

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