bigjku
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Re: Airbus Working With Emirates on New Order for Flagship A380

Thu Nov 16, 2017 2:33 pm

mjoelnir wrote:
Channex757 wrote:
parapente wrote:
Applying logic.
If Emirates do not order an additional 40 aircraft then we know production of the A380 must cease in about 5 years time.But this is the very thing Emirates appear to be desperate to avoid.If it did cease they would have to renegotiate their existing 380 leases -holding no cards at all.
I guess they would also have to go cap in hand to Boeing asking for a less than optimal 777-10 and pay whatever Boeing chooses to ask ( there would be nothing else available).
So in effect they must order these 40 aircraft.One assumes they would be Rr900 powered .Perhaps with a rumoured additional pip.By that time (10 years ar future production rates) they would have circa 85 RR powered 380's.Thats less than their current fleet by quite a margin and no doubt the (and their) market will continue to expand.
So at that time they would perhaps be looking for a further 40 maybe more depending on replacement strategy.

This is why thet appear to be so concerned about future production.But I don't think it's as simple as that.
The timing (10 years) coincides exactly where a new 70-80klbs thrust engine is needed.(787/350).
They have strongly asked for the present 'new' gen (T7000) but were told no.They cannot accept that a second time in 10 years time.

The problem for Airbus is they have already rejected the idea of a NEO for an order of 40.So would do so again in the future.

It is not an issue of promising to keep the line open for 10 years .The maths tell us that this would happen anyrate with the additional 40 order.
It is not a problem promising to keep the line open for 15 years actually.EK orders AB manufacturers-easy.
No it is 'what' they (and RR) are being asked to manufacture in 10 years time.

Now that timing does coincide with the 'classic' replacement cycle of 20 years for planes such as this.So it's more about all the other existing A380 operators than Emirates (we know they want a NEO already).In theory there should easily be another 100 aircraft.In theory only.

I guess the final answer might be a highly complicated (secret) legal agreement with plenty of get out clauses,but overlaying a promise to NEO ( at the very least) if the other orders/numbers are fourth coming at the time.(well that's my guess anyway)!

Just to put the cat among the pigeons, Emirates wants to go back to EA motors for this order.

All the work done on the wing and pylons by Airbus would need redoing. Their analysis for the A380plus was done using data for RR engined aircraft.

Source: http://www.latribune.fr/entreprises-fin ... 57663.html


So putting pressure both on RR and Airbus for the neo.


That seems to be what this is really all about and us been for a while. They want a NEO.

FWIW I think Airbus is right to say no. It isn’t the right place to be investing.
 
DWC
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Re: Airbus Working With Emirates on New Order for Flagship A380

Thu Nov 16, 2017 2:33 pm

Revelation wrote:
Channex757 wrote:
Just to put the cat among the pigeons, Emirates wants to go back to EA motors for this order.
Source: http://www.latribune.fr/entreprises-fin ... 57663.html

Amazing, because it would really be stabbing RR in the back at a very bad time for them after they've done so much work on PIPing the T900.

End of article from Google Translate:
If Emirates returned to Engine Alliance, the decision would not be neutral on a possible evolution of the A380 to a reengineering of the aircraft as has always desired Emirates. In 2015, the Dubai company decided to move to Rolls Royce because it was the most inclined to want to develop an A380neo.

It seems then that by going back to EA they would be making not only A380 Plus but also A380neo less likely.
It's hard to fathom that they are so dissatisfied with T900 that they'd make such a move.

On the contrary, they are forcing RR into investing if they want to keep the market. Standard Game Theory tug-of-war.
mjoelnir wrote:
So putting pressure both on RR and Airbus for the neo.

I suspect the same on EA to invest.
Who ever does it gets the market : "the winner takes it all" as it stands now.

EK want the Neo & will do everything to have it.
By that logic, not saying it will happen but does make sense, EK should even talk non-competing airlines into buying A380+ or just show interest in a Neo : LA comes to mind as well as all East-Asian airlines for Transpac traffic, particularly the CH3, by which case the US3 may be forced to reconsider their current position. And then if, and I am aware it is an unprobable big if today ( Game Theory is like Chess, you need to consider all scenarios ), that reopens the market for the A380 ( new & second-hand ), which in turn would convince other competitors within a decade ( TK, QR, EY?, IR, TG, KE, OZ, NH, JL ) to order or top-ups, specially if by the same token both EA & RR follow suit.
Last edited by DWC on Thu Nov 16, 2017 2:50 pm, edited 2 times in total.
 
frmrCapCadet
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Re: Airbus Working With Emirates on New Order for Flagship A380

Thu Nov 16, 2017 2:35 pm

The problem with EK going 20 year leases, including extending current leases. Long term that would imply that EK would need say, 5 planes a year to maintain 100 plane fleet. Airbus needs several more planes a year to keep the line going. I do realize it could work for the next several years.

A second point, I am an admirer of EK and the 380, surely one of the surprise business plans of a century. But EK can continue to thrive without it, fortunately they have a lot of good 380s in the fleet now, and at least a few more dozen coming.

A third point, perhaps a little off topic. Several years ago when EK first came to Seattle they quickly dominated travel to Australia, east Africa, India. They no longer do so, still an important player though. What happened? In this case simple economics 101 likely explains it - competition figured out how to compete. EK and the 380 are great, so is EK and the 777(and the X). So is Delta.
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Re: Airbus Working With Emirates on New Order for Flagship A380

Thu Nov 16, 2017 2:35 pm

Channex757 wrote:
All the work done on the wing and pylons by Airbus would need redoing.

First of all thank you for the link. PM will not like it ;-)

But I don't get your statement regarding the pylons. EA-engines are still an option for A380s. So why would it need redoing?

mjoelnir wrote:
So putting pressure both on RR and Airbus for the neo.

Might be...
 
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Re: Airbus Working With Emirates on New Order for Flagship A380

Thu Nov 16, 2017 2:47 pm

DWC wrote:
On the contrary, they are forcing RR into investing if they want to keep the market. Standard Game Theory tug-of-war.

Does Game Theory include a "blood from a turnip" axiom?
If you've seen RR's financials, I think you'll know where I'm going.
Besides, EK used that gambit to get RR to PIP the T900.
I'm not sure they can play that card again.
I'm sure RR was hoping the PIP would draw more business from EK and a few other airlines too.
I doubt they will amortize its cost successfully over the 50 frames that EK is taking with T900 alone.

PS: in the recent past, EA has said that they see no business case for investing more in the GP7200.
Yet they are behind T900 in performance after the last PIP.
We shall see if things have changed and EA is willing to refresh their products or not.

frmrCapCadet wrote:
The problem with EK going 20 year leases, including extending current leases. Long term that would imply that EK would need say, 5 planes a year to maintain 100 plane fleet. Airbus needs several more planes a year to keep the line going. I do realize it could work for the next several years.

As @lightsaber has told us many times, once the production line stops the prices for spare parts jump. It's one big reason why EK wants the commitment to keep the line up and running.

As I've said earlier, EK is in essence committing to buy at 8/year in exchange for Airbus's commitment to keep the line going for ten more years (circa 2027). It should be something that is in both parties best interest.
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Re: Airbus Working With Emirates on New Order for Flagship A380

Thu Nov 16, 2017 2:51 pm

N14AZ wrote:
But I don't get your statement regarding the pylons. EA-engines are still an option for A380s. So why would it need redoing?

The statement was that the winglets were designed presuming RR's pylons and nacelles. If you go to EA's pylons and nacelles, then the winglet design work needs to be redone due to different air flows.
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Re: Airbus Working With Emirates on New Order for Flagship A380

Thu Nov 16, 2017 2:52 pm

N14AZ wrote:
Channex757 wrote:
All the work done on the wing and pylons by Airbus would need redoing.

First of all thank you for the link. PM will not like it ;-)

But I don't get your statement regarding the pylons. EA-engines are still an option for A380s. So why would it need redoing?

mjoelnir wrote:
So putting pressure both on RR and Airbus for the neo.

Might be...


The pylon work relates to the winglets that are part of the plus package. They create stress changes across the wing, so tests and modelling need to be done with the pylons and engines to ensure no points of failure are caused.

The work would need redoing as the GP7200 has a different pylon and weight. The work can't just be grandfathered from one engine type to another. A similar story was the British Airways 767 fleet that could not be wingleted, as neither BA nor Boeing would fund the needed testing to certify the 767-RB211 combination.
 
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Re: Airbus Working With Emirates on New Order for Flagship A380

Thu Nov 16, 2017 2:57 pm

Revelation wrote:
Channex757 wrote:
Just to put the cat among the pigeons, Emirates wants to go back to EA motors for this order.

All the work done on the wing and pylons by Airbus would need redoing. Their analysis for the A380plus was done using data for RR engined aircraft.

Source: http://www.latribune.fr/entreprises-fin ... 57663.html

Amazing, because it would really be stabbing RR in the back at a very bad time for them after they've done so much work on PIPing the T900.

End of article from Google Translate:

If Emirates returned to Engine Alliance, the decision would not be neutral on a possible evolution of the A380 to a reengineering of the aircraft as has always desired Emirates. In 2015, the Dubai company decided to move to Rolls Royce because it was the most inclined to want to develop an A380neo.

It seems then that by going back to EA they would be making not only A380 Plus but also A380neo less likely.

It's hard to fathom that they are so dissatisfied with T900 that they'd make such a move.


Gotta love the irony: the customer that wants a more efficient engine would revert back to the less effent GP7000 powerplant. On top of that, getting out of a RR contract is a herculean task, EK would be stabbing itself in the process.
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RB211trent
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Re: Airbus Working With Emirates on New Order for Flagship A380

Thu Nov 16, 2017 3:04 pm

Emirates does not want to go back to EA but any new order will be open to competition, just like its previous orders. As previously the best deal for Emirates at the time won.
 
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Re: Airbus Working With Emirates on New Order for Flagship A380

Thu Nov 16, 2017 3:04 pm

Revelation wrote:
DWC wrote:
On the contrary, they are forcing RR into investing if they want to keep the market. Standard Game Theory tug-of-war.

Does Game Theory include a "blood from a turnip" axiom?
If you've seen RR's financials, I think you'll know where I'm going.

As @lightsaber has told us many times, once the production line stops the prices for spare parts jump. It's one big reason why EK wants the commitment to keep the line up and running.
As I've said earlier, EK is in essence committing to buy at 8/year in exchange for Airbus's commitment to keep the line going for ten more years (circa 2027). It should be something that is in both parties best interest.

RR are in Europe & if Airbus goes for the Neo, RR will find the financing, specially that money is coming in from engines & TotalCare® on the A350. With 8/year EK alone gives a lifeline to Airbus : if Airbus don't find customers for the other 4, then they will reduce the output to 8/year & extend the higher cost to EK if they want them so badly. This is a clear example why we turn in circles, doing our best to feed the discussion, because we lack the information & strategy alternatives they have at hand.

My current guess is that Airbus & EK already have all their scenarios ready to be played depending on the other's decision, after their respective well-informed & calculated "decision tree". They all know what they are doing & we have yet to hear of any 777X top-ups : 150 is suspiciously equal to EK's current 150 777, so they are for replacement or growth on those routes, while the 787 are for growth or replacement, means growth is with 40 frames total - whatever the 2 families, but neither is intended to replace the A380 fleet.
 
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Re: Airbus Working With Emirates on New Order for Flagship A380

Thu Nov 16, 2017 3:58 pm

Revelation wrote:
SomebodyInTLS wrote:
Yeah that probably came off harsher than I meant it.

I understand the tension. You work in the profession, have the training and the tools to do deep analysis and are surrounded by colleagues who do this work all day and support your work. We're amateurs here and are using spreadsheets based on academic levels of knowledge and very basic information/data. I for one appreciate the effort, and understand that the models are basic, and every attempt is made to calibrate them against known data, but still can totally miss important effects. I think it'd be more useful to be more specific on what you think is being missed, especially when making such a broad claim as "most of the important details" are being missed.


Part of the problem from my end is that I also don't claim to know enough so I can say what's correct and what's missing.

On certain aspects (the cult of composites being better than everything else, for example) I have a much firmer understanding and will be quite vocal.

On others (e.g. aerodynamic effects) I know enough to know I don't know enough - so I will watch from the sidelines.

Then there are things like the endless MoM cross-section discussion where I'm pretty sure that a lot of bullstuff is being put forth as fact and a lot of people have a lot of misconceptions. I tried to point out what I think is wrong with a lot of the ideas presented but again, I don't know enough to go into the numbers people start to spout. So these are the cases where I have a pretty good idea that a lot of nonsense is being earnestly discussed as fact, but wouldn't be able to "back that up" to the numbers-obsessed.

Then there's the cases where I just can't talk about it... ;)
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Re: Airbus Working With Emirates on New Order for Flagship A380

Thu Nov 16, 2017 4:08 pm

Considering no one on this forum and no one in any of the press was remotely considering anything to do with Airbus A380's at the Dubai show (why would they?)they have certainly made a b****y mess of whatever Emirates were intending to announce.
JL had openly said a month ago he was not even going to attend since he was soon retiring so he clearly did not anticipate anything of a big nature.
Whatever game theory Emirates was using it was the wrong one!Sad.
Hope they can sort it out quietly later with no loss of face to any of the various involved parties.
 
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Re: Airbus Working With Emirates on New Order for Flagship A380

Thu Nov 16, 2017 4:17 pm

SomebodyInTLS wrote:
Slug71 wrote:
SomebodyInTLS wrote:

This is the second time you've said this. I believe that people who worked hard on the GLARE door surrounds and GLARE bonded window belt would have a two-word answer to that suggestion... ;)

Generic components and systems is a different matter, but the structural stuff you mention is already highly advanced on the A380.


And they could be switched to the A350 (& A380) supply chain for the shared parts. I'm sure they would rather have work than no work (which is where the A380 is currently headed). Wasn't trying to imply the current suppliers should be dropped.


I was talking about designers and engineers, not suppliers. The A380 structure you mention is highly optimized and composites would be no improvement at all.


I was thinking more in lines of cost reduction, volume & commonality. While the frame is highly efficient, is it not slightly overweight due to the extra strengthening for the -900? Pretty sure i've read that several times. How much input would the designers and engineers have in the A380 at this point? Couldn't they too be re-purposed?
 
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Re: Airbus Working With Emirates on New Order for Flagship A380

Thu Nov 16, 2017 4:21 pm

RB211trent wrote:
Emirates does not want to go back to EA but any new order will be open to competition, just like its previous orders. As previously the best deal for Emirates at the time won.

The translation reads:

Emirates, which, having powered its first 90 engines Engine Alliance composed of General Electric and Pratt & Whithney, had changed suppliers in 2015 by passing Rolls Royce would, according to industry sources, return to Engine Alliance.

I can imagine the translation could be erroneous, but its all I have to work with, and it is suggesting EK "would return to Engine Alliance". I don't know if "would" should be translated as "possibly" or "will". Just raising it as a realistic possibility creates some turbulence, IMHO.

But, as above, I think it's more of a gambit than a realistic possibility. I don't think it makes sense. GE has said they do not see a business case for enhancement of GP7200, and EK has said it needs enhancement. GE is in the middle of a huge corporate reorganization right now. GE made the decision to get involved with EA a long, long time ago when it might have become the 747-500/600 engine. It no longer makes sense for GE to invest in the program. They have their half of CFM, GEnx, GE90 and GE9X going fill speed right now. The CEO's commitment is to focus on growth areas. It's hard to see how one could view A380 as a growth area. They'd be far more likely to focus on MOM/NMA.
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Re: Airbus Working With Emirates on New Order for Flagship A380

Thu Nov 16, 2017 4:29 pm

I don't know game theory, and I don't know that much about business.

But I do know this:

- Airbus wants to sell more A380s
- Airbus wants to avoid shutting down the production line
- Emirates wants more A380s
- Emirates are worried Airbus will shut down the production line

All in all, it seems likely a new order will happen.
 
RB211trent
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Re: Airbus Working With Emirates on New Order for Flagship A380

Thu Nov 16, 2017 4:37 pm

Revelation, When Emirates opened the competition for its last order it did not WANT to order RR but it WOULD if it it was the best deal, so they DID. You seem to be using the translation for something that is just not there.
 
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Re: Airbus Working With Emirates on New Order for Flagship A380

Thu Nov 16, 2017 4:47 pm

speedbored wrote:
I really don't understand the obsession that some people have with over-analysing the A380 program launch decision, the amounts of money spent on its development, the development troubles, and whether or not the program will ever make a profit.

The decision was made, and the money spent, over 10 years ago now. It can't be undecided or unspent. I doubt Airbus even have any lessons left to be learnt from it. It is completely irrelevant now to discussions and decisions about what should happen to the program in future.

All very reminiscent of Trump and his obsession with Hillary Clinton more than a year after the election was over.


I really don't understand the irrelevant obsession with bringing a certain American president's name into this otherwise intriguing thread.
 
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Re: Airbus Working With Emirates on New Order for Flagship A380

Thu Nov 16, 2017 4:51 pm

Revelation wrote:
It's hard to fathom that they are so dissatisfied with T900 that they'd make such a move.


Looks like they are trying to appease the US by increasing purchases there.
( maybe "Grand Inquisitor Trump" shew around some tools of his trade while
the US3 quire was humming in the background sitting pretty? )
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Re: Airbus Working With Emirates on New Order for Flagship A380

Thu Nov 16, 2017 5:00 pm

parapente wrote:
Whatever game theory Emirates was using it was the wrong one!Sad.


As the final outcome is still very much in the balance, this would seem to be a premature conclusion. Whatever high-falutin' words you want to call it, the "camel-trading" is still ongoing.
 
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Re: Airbus Working With Emirates on New Order for Flagship A380

Thu Nov 16, 2017 5:20 pm

RB211trent wrote:
Revelation, When Emirates opened the competition for its last order it did not WANT to order RR but it WOULD if it it was the best deal, so they DID. You seem to be using the translation for something that is just not there.

Fair enough. You are reading "would" in the sense of "possibly/might/could", I'm reading it as "will", and I can see by the context you're providing why you are doing so.

All in all I feel raising EA as a possibility is an idle threat. RR has the better product and are now the incumbent. They shouldn't need to invest more to get the business, IMHO.
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Re: Airbus Working With Emirates on New Order for Flagship A380

Thu Nov 16, 2017 5:25 pm

RR are definitely not incumbent, They had to bend over backwards to win last time and will have to again to win any future orders. Obviously I hope they do!
 
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Re: Airbus Working With Emirates on New Order for Flagship A380

Thu Nov 16, 2017 5:32 pm

parapente wrote:
Considering no one on this forum and no one in any of the press was remotely considering anything to do with Airbus A380's at the Dubai show (why would they?)

EK's chairman floated the idea of an A380 order just 10 days before DAS17, at the delivery ceremony for the 100th A380.

Hope they can sort it out quietly later with no loss of face to any of the various involved parties.

:checkmark:
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Re: Airbus Working With Emirates on New Order for Flagship A380

Thu Nov 16, 2017 5:34 pm

RB211trent wrote:
RR are definitely not incumbent, They had to bend over backwards to win last time and will have to again to win any future orders. Obviously I hope they do!


How well did they meet their promises?

There was this flare up on "massive performance shortfalls" published with ( apparently no real source )
going through the press that then vanished with about the same speed.

I found that to be a bit strange.
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RB211trent
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Re: Airbus Working With Emirates on New Order for Flagship A380

Thu Nov 16, 2017 5:46 pm

How well did they meet their promises?

There was this flare up on "massive performance shortfalls" published with ( apparently no real source )
going through the press that then vanished with about the same speed.

I found that to be a bit strange.[/quote]

There were a few issues before first delivery that needed to be agreed on, definitely not “massive” but important non the less.
 
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Re: Airbus Working With Emirates on New Order for Flagship A380

Thu Nov 16, 2017 5:51 pm

Slug71 wrote:
SomebodyInTLS wrote:
I was talking about designers and engineers, not suppliers. The A380 structure you mention is highly optimized and composites would be no improvement at all.


I was thinking more in lines of cost reduction, volume & commonality. While the frame is highly efficient, is it not slightly overweight due to the extra strengthening for the -900? Pretty sure i've read that several times. How much input would the designers and engineers have in the A380 at this point? Couldn't they too be re-purposed?


The overall shape and structure of the wing and landing gear are the type of things that have been dimensioned with the -900 in mind. But you can be sure that the *actual* wing would be considerably heavier for the -900 than the one currently used for the -800. Skin thicknesses, stringer cross-sections etc. would all change. No two stringers or skin panels are the same.

Similarly, the fuselage dimensions vary from one end to the other, from top to bottom, around the door frames, around the wing/body joint, etc. etc., so commonality between one aircraft type and another is limited for the structure too(*). Separate non-structural components, or structural parts with the same dimensions and loads for different aircraft, are the only things you could consider relatively easy to adapt for commonality purposes. I'm thinking engines, doors, maybe parts of the landing gear, rear pressure bulkhead, nose section...

(*) Caveat: with the obvious exception of (grandfathered) variants where complete sections are re-used with modifications kept to a minimum for cost purposes.

Of the engineers involved, they are constantly re-purposed. Obviously it depends a bit on your specialisation and experience, but you could easily be looking at A380 plus proposals for a few months, then a year of A350-1000 certification efforts, then R&D aimed at future single-aisle, then life-extension efforts on the A310...
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Re: Airbus Working With Emirates on New Order for Flagship A380

Thu Nov 16, 2017 6:14 pm

Revelation wrote:
There's not much doubt about what happened in Dubai. A room full of reporters were told there would be an EK announcement regarding both A and B, but at the last minute the A team left the room and it was the B team who was taking the stage. It was a slap across the face if not a kick to the nuts for the A team.

As for the suckage, I do agree EK treated the A team harshly.

Since we all agree STC is no idiot, the question then becomes, why the harsh treatment?

With perfect hindsight we could see that what STC said at the Dubai Air Show is the same as what he said at the Paris Air Show: I'm not interested in A380 Plus, I'm concerned about the longevity of the A380 production line.

He voiced concerns about the longevity of the A380 production line at PAS in June ( https://www.seattletimes.com/business/b ... s-clouded/ ) and a bit of googling shows the same concerns being voiced in 2016 ( https://www.thenational.ae/business/emi ... 0-1.180872 ) and 2014 ( http://onemileatatime.boardingarea.com/ ... es-pissed/ ).

Here's what he said in 2016 from the above link:

“I can’t force Toulouse to do anything,” Emirates president Tim Clark told reporters at a briefing in Dublin, referring to Airbus’s home base in southern France. “My main concern is that they stop producing the plane.”

Here's what he said in 2014 from the above link:

“We are on the hook for this plane,” said Emirates President Tim Clark. “I get pretty miffed when we have put so much at stake,” he told Reuters.

In retrospect, there sure is a pattern of concern he's voicing, going back three years now.

It makes me think that the reason he dished out such harsh treatment is that he probably feels his concerns about the longevity of the A380 production line have not been taken seriously enough for over three years now.

I think the concern does come from the fact that the lessors are seeing the first A380 being put into storage and are pressing for higher leasing fees. The lease agreements are not made years in advance, they are made at delivery time ( ref: https://www.flightglobal.com/news/artic ... 80-443054/ ) so the pressure gets applied as each delivery happens, and they've been taking deliveries by the dozen over the last few years. Then we do have the strategic concerns because A380 is such a large part of his business plan. And there definitely could be an element of brinkmanship: the aviation world's eyes were on DAS17 and he knew it. Maybe he overplayed his hand, or maybe it will turn out to be the shock to the system that Airbus needed to get its act together and make a firm decision on the future of the A380 production line.


You're very generous - nothing explains it to me. To treat the A big wigs as he did is one thing. To do it in public and especially in front of B bigwigs is, I think, disgraceful. It goes against pretty much everything I was ever taught about negotiating techniques, because while certainly there can be last minute deal-breakers, generally deal breakers are raised at an earlier point than this.

If there's a deal breaker and it hasn't been addressed, why pretend there's a deal? Why belittle the other side?

There is a personal element to all this, no matter how much anyone pretends otherwise - it isn't "just business." The people in power - real power - in the civil aviation world are few in number and represent a kind of club, what we would call "whanau" an extended if unrelated family. Its not hard for outsiders to get in - they just need to do something remarkable, like make or spend a lot of money. If Indigo's Bill Franke, for example, wasn't in the club before, he surely is now.

They have to deal with each other on a regular basis - the A people, the B people and the airline people. In the civilised version of that club, you don't - publicly - treat other members like sh*t. It is the one thing that people find very hard to forgive.

So iIf STC - or Sheik A - is having this unrestrained love affair with Boeing, that's fine, but why treat the A people - whom he actually needs - like sh*t and in public and then rub their faces in it?

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Re: Airbus Working With Emirates on New Order for Flagship A380

Thu Nov 16, 2017 6:24 pm

mariner wrote:
nothing explains it to me.

I can't help wondering whether some of what went on in Dubai might be explained by Dubai attempting to persuade the US Senate not to go ahead with this:
http://viewfromthewing.boardingarea.com ... had-qatar/
 
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Re: Airbus Working With Emirates on New Order for Flagship A380

Thu Nov 16, 2017 6:35 pm

Revelation wrote:
The translation reads:
Emirates, which, having powered its first 90 engines Engine Alliance composed of General Electric and Pratt & Whithney, had changed suppliers in 2015 by passing Rolls Royce would, according to industry sources, return to Engine Alliance.
[...]
Fair enough. You are reading "would" in the sense of "possibly/might/could", I'm reading it as "will", and I can see by the context you're providing why you are doing so
http://www.latribune.fr/entreprises-finance/industrie/aeronautique-defense/garantie-industrielle-choix-des-moteurs-les-exigences-d-emirates-pour-commander-plus-d-aibus-a380-757663.html

Messieurs, there is absolutely no "will" or "would" in the French version. What is, is twice the word "wish", second as verb in conditional mode :
1. "le souhait d'Emirates de revenir à des moteurs Engine Alliance"
2. "Emirates [...] souhaiterait, selon des sources industrielles, revenir chez Engine Alliance"
In other words there is no more certainty or even verified negociations than Donald wishing to marry Daisy.

WIederling wrote:
Looks like they are trying to appease the US by increasing purchases there.
( maybe "Grand Inquisitor Trump" shew around some tools of his trade while
the US3 quire was humming in the background sitting pretty? )

100 billion to the GCC is a lot of bucks... Did you notice that the embargo on Qatar was effective just after that ?
Other than the irksome Al-Jazeera TV, GF MS & specially SV + EK/EY/FZ/G9 want to expand : why leave the air cake to 313,000 Qatari ( less than Iceland ) ?

A-ha !
speedbored wrote:
mariner wrote:
nothing explains it to me.

I can't help wondering whether some of what went on in Dubai might be explained by Dubai attempting to persuade the US Senate not to go ahead with this:
http://viewfromthewing.boardingarea.com ... had-qatar/
Last edited by DWC on Thu Nov 16, 2017 6:40 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
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Re: Airbus Working With Emirates on New Order for Flagship A380

Thu Nov 16, 2017 6:38 pm

scbriml wrote:
Revelation wrote:
Instead we see both programs continue to make frames at uneconomic rates with no end date in place.


I think this is because of the usually significant cost impact of closing down a production line. Neither Airbus nor Boeing want to close a production line unless they absolutely have to.

And one of those potential cost impacts are buybacks with cornerstone customers which could be triggered.

The difference with the proposed EK production guarantee, is that is additional to the existing buyback, working more like a retrospective discount, becoming payable when production ceased (or maybe even when announced), rather than when the aircraft in question was up for disposal.
 
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Re: Airbus Working With Emirates on New Order for Flagship A380

Thu Nov 16, 2017 6:46 pm

WIederling wrote:
RB211trent wrote:
RR are definitely not incumbent, They had to bend over backwards to win last time and will have to again to win any future orders. Obviously I hope they do!


How well did they meet their promises?

There was this flare up on "massive performance shortfalls" published with ( apparently no real source )
going through the press that then vanished with about the same speed.

I found that to be a bit strange.


At some point I might be able to add some clarity to that situation, but certainly not at the moment.
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Re: Airbus Working With Emirates on New Order for Flagship A380

Thu Nov 16, 2017 6:52 pm

DWC wrote:
Revelation wrote:
The translation reads:
Emirates, which, having powered its first 90 engines Engine Alliance composed of General Electric and Pratt & Whithney, had changed suppliers in 2015 by passing Rolls Royce would, according to industry sources, return to Engine Alliance.
[...]
Fair enough. You are reading "would" in the sense of "possibly/might/could", I'm reading it as "will", and I can see by the context you're providing why you are doing so
http://www.latribune.fr/entreprises-finance/industrie/aeronautique-defense/garantie-industrielle-choix-des-moteurs-les-exigences-d-emirates-pour-commander-plus-d-aibus-a380-757663.html

Messieurs, there is absolutely no "will" or "would" in the French version. What is, is twice the word "wish", second as verb in conditional mode :
1. "le souhait d'Emirates de revenir à des moteurs Engine Alliance"
2. "Emirates [...] souhaiterait, selon des sources industrielles, revenir chez Engine Alliance"
In other words there is no more certainty or even verified negociations than Donald wishing to marry Daisy.

Very helpful. It seems EK "wishes" for a return to using EA engines. As above, I don't think that's very plausible, but you never know.
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Re: Airbus Working With Emirates on New Order for Flagship A380

Thu Nov 16, 2017 7:44 pm

mariner wrote:
If there's a deal breaker and it hasn't been addressed, why pretend there's a deal? Why belittle the other side?

There is a personal element to all this, no matter how much anyone pretends otherwise - it isn't "just business." The people in power - real power - in the civil aviation world are few in number and represent a kind of club, what we would call "whanau" an extended if unrelated family. Its not hard for outsiders to get in - they just need to do something remarkable, like make or spend a lot of money. If Indigo's Bill Franke, for example, wasn't in the club before, he surely is now.


Exactly. This somehow has become personal. And the "Ask Emirates" answer from Airbus, taken to a sentimental break-up situation comes quite clear. Offences, misunderstandings or attempts to take unfair advantage. Something dodgy has happened there, economics and air stuff apart.
 
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Re: Airbus Working With Emirates on New Order for Flagship A380

Thu Nov 16, 2017 8:23 pm

EK had received only 20 A380's by the end of 2011. If new orders are more for replacements EK probably would prefer say 5 or 6 per year starting in 2023 and might only need 3 or 4 per year if some routes move from 380's to smaller planes. So they prefer only about half of the production going forward. Airbus must find some other buyers.

Something to consider, EK may have been looking at financing and the order books recently. Committing 15B for the 787-10 got slots starting 5 years out reserved. The FlyDubai order also got spots in a fast growing backlog. If 15B was used instead on the 380 the spots for the 787 and 737 may be several years longer in a year. But ordering the 380 a year from now would likely have the same delivery dates as now, and possibly some great pricing too. I think that might have been the reason for the quick change.

EK saved face for itself by pouring water on the 380 order now instead of saying we can't finance all 3 deals now. (FlyDubai is probably funded by the same players as EK)
 
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Re: Airbus Working With Emirates on New Order for Flagship A380

Thu Nov 16, 2017 8:28 pm

Jayafe wrote:
mariner wrote:
If there's a deal breaker and it hasn't been addressed, why pretend there's a deal? Why belittle the other side?

There is a personal element to all this, no matter how much anyone pretends otherwise - it isn't "just business." The people in power - real power - in the civil aviation world are few in number and represent a kind of club, what we would call "whanau" an extended if unrelated family. Its not hard for outsiders to get in - they just need to do something remarkable, like make or spend a lot of money. If Indigo's Bill Franke, for example, wasn't in the club before, he surely is now.


Exactly. This somehow has become personal. And the "Ask Emirates" answer from Airbus, taken to a sentimental break-up situation comes quite clear. Offences, misunderstandings or attempts to take unfair advantage. Something dodgy has happened there, economics and air stuff apart.


You have two parties that are very mad about economic issues that can’t be avoided forever.

Presumably EK has some level of exposure to falling asset values of what have to be its most expensive capital asset. It’s also heavily invested in physical plant to support and utilize the aircraft and needs to be able to finance them.

Airbus has a busted program on their hands and the more demanding EK is to try and salvage its investment the more money it cost Airbus to keep working with them.

The fundamental issue is the aircraft aren’t sellin and thus aren’t likely worth what everyone involved needs them to be worth. EK likely needs to buy them cheaper if financing terms are less attractive to make ends meet. For Airbus selling them more cheaply (or providing a guarantee you feel will likely be exercised) just burns more money. Fundamentally there isn’t enough demand and these two have the biggest exposure to that in various ways. They have no one else to argue with about it so like a married couple they argue with each other.

I don’t see anything either party can do to fix the issue either.
 
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Re: Airbus Working With Emirates on New Order for Flagship A380

Thu Nov 16, 2017 8:31 pm

Bregier sounding very confident about the deal being closed soon....

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lqPepwHmleY
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Re: Airbus Working With Emirates on New Order for Flagship A380

Thu Nov 16, 2017 8:56 pm

Jayafe wrote:
mariner wrote:
If there's a deal breaker and it hasn't been addressed, why pretend there's a deal? Why belittle the other side?
There is a personal element to all this, no matter how much anyone pretends otherwise - it isn't "just business"

Exactly. This somehow has become personal. And the "Ask Emirates" answer from Airbus, taken to a sentimental break-up situation comes quite clear. Offences, misunderstandings or attempts to take unfair advantage. Something dodgy has happened there, economics and air stuff apart.

I actually disagree.
It is precisely NOT PERSONAL, even if we could see personal feelings hurt.
But facts show how EK & Airbus are essentially very rational in both their strategic projections & arguments in their negociation. It is very cold.
Some people like John Leahy or Boeing's Allan Mulally ( watch the 4h documentary on the 777 ) are unusually civil & warm persons. STC is also a perfect gentleman in normal situations, but in stressed circumstances he becomes the cold-blooded chancellor of the Dubai commercial airforce. Leahy's comment "ask EK" suggest to me that they are done with EK, that Airbus have made their calculations & probably most of the concessions. In addition to the PR slam. EK may be in the more critical situation : they may have made the one step too many & Airbus will not budge, so the only solution is that EK backdown, for inviting Brégier & Enders only to send them off empty-handed does not reek good.
As Airbus usually gulp all criticisms to get a deal through, they may work out something for EK not to loose face.

In any case, the Emirates group are not just an airline nor a normal airline, they are a horizontal structure that internalizes much of their spending ( Dnata, etc. ) & with an increasing development abroad. In addition, aviation accounts indirectly for some 25% of Dubai's GDP, so Economics AND Politics ( see Speedbored's link above & mine ) must be considered to understand their behaviour. EK are possibly the most interesting airline to observe in the world from any angle you take, they got everything right in my opinion, except... that their growth is illegitimate relative to Dubai's O/D, and this is exacerbated by the growth of EY FZ & G9. Bottom-line is that finance alone does not suffice, one needs a pluridisciplinary approach to discern the many other layers ruling their decision-making as the profits both to them & to Dubai. And to get the full picture requires to bring in the most modern insights in every field, for there really is a "Realpolitik" going on behind, which incidently reminded me of this https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2Jq7xgVqPYA
Last edited by DWC on Thu Nov 16, 2017 9:01 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
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Re: Airbus Working With Emirates on New Order for Flagship A380

Thu Nov 16, 2017 9:01 pm

ap305 wrote:
Bregier sounding very confident about the deal being closed soon....

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lqPepwHmleY


viewtopic.php?p=19966233#p19965969 #138 and #139 suggest that the deal is very close (and it has been all along) and the only real sticking point is how much Airbus would need to pay if the production line should be shut down early. It sounds like the payments would flow back to the financiers in diminishing scale relative to age (older planes get less) to help cover the decrease in residual value of the aircraft if the production line should be shut down early.
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Re: Airbus Working With Emirates on New Order for Flagship A380

Thu Nov 16, 2017 9:32 pm

lowbank wrote:
WIederling wrote:
RB211trent wrote:
RR are definitely not incumbent, They had to bend over backwards to win last time and will have to again to win any future orders. Obviously I hope they do!


How well did they meet their promises?

There was this flare up on "massive performance shortfalls" published with ( apparently no real source )
going through the press that then vanished with about the same speed.

I found that to be a bit strange.


At some point I might be able to add some clarity to that situation, but certainly not at the moment.


I remember thinking at the time "what a load of old bollocks" that just weeks before they were to take delivery
they were coming up with reasons they couldn`t make it a smooth EIS. The fact is the Trent 900 is a hugely
reliable turbine & with the promised PIP & extra power offered, were attracted by it, particularly at the right
price. They couldn`t lose as there was no risk in changing. Why they had to try & rubbish the RR good name
like that I`ll never understand, sadly it soured what should have been a pleasant introduction.
 
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Re: Airbus Working With Emirates on New Order for Flagship A380

Thu Nov 16, 2017 9:36 pm

In my opinion Emirates gave Airbus three slabs in their face at this airshow. And I think Airbus is less likely to lissen to their wishes in the future.
1) It was Emirates that announced the additional A380 order, and by bringing in their demand for guaranteed production for 10+ years, they torpedo'ed it.
2) By cancelling the A350XWB (that was designed with Emirates demands in mind) order, and ordering B787 instead.
3) Emirates actually wanted the original A350 (A330 with carbon wing and new engines). Instead of B787 they could also have ordered A330NEO (conversion of A350XWB order).
If about two years ago Emirates had made clear to Airbus, that they wanted to converted A350XWB order for A330NEO. Airbus and Rolls Royce (or EA) could have developed a new engine for both the A330NEO and A380NEO. This would have required more time and resources, but there are two programs that can return the investment.
Very bad way of doing business from Emirates.

Airbus developed all A380 factories for a production rate of 4/month (40/year flightglobal) And there even was a plan to expand to rate 8/month.
:devil: :crazy: :devil: In the worst case for Emirates:
Airbus could just build and assemble the remaining A380 orders at rate 12, or a rate that is most economical. After all planes are assembled at Toulouse FAL (Station 40), they could close and re-purpose all A380 production sites. Airbus has created a enormous amount of stowage space for planes. The A380's could be stowed as gliders. Cabin outfitting and completion of the A380's could be adjusted to the delivery schedule.
The three slaps in Airbus face could have just been enough to make airbus decide to terminate the A380 program. :devil: :white:
Last edited by CFRPwingALbody on Thu Nov 16, 2017 9:50 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
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Re: Airbus Working With Emirates on New Order for Flagship A380

Thu Nov 16, 2017 9:48 pm

ap305 wrote:
Bregier sounding very confident about the deal being closed soon....

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lqPepwHmleY


:o What is Bregier saying about Singapore in the last couple of seconds of the video?
From 2:45.
"...If we take Singapore Airlines, it's 19 {A380's}. They have decided to refurbish their hole fleet, and take the new. I think in even a few weeks"
Was this a slip of the tong?
 
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Re: Airbus Working With Emirates on New Order for Flagship A380

Thu Nov 16, 2017 9:50 pm

CFRPwingALbody wrote:
In my opinion Emirates gave Airbus three slabs in their face at this airshow. And I think Airbus is less likely to lissen to their wishes in the future.
1) It was Emirates that announced the additional A380 order, and by bringing in their demand for guaranteed production for 10+ years, they torpedo'ed it.
2) By cancelling the A350XWB (that was designed with Emirates demands in mind) order, and ordering B787 instead.
3) Emirates actually wanted the original A350 (A330 with carbon wing and new engines). Instead of B787 they could also have ordered A330NEO (conversion of A350XWB order).
If about two years ago Emirates had made clear to Airbus, that they wanted to converted A350XWB order for A330NEO. Airbus and Rolls Royce could have developed a new engine for both the A330NEO and A380NEO. This would have required more time and resources, but there are two programs that can return the investment.
Very bad way of doing business from Emirates.

Airbus developed all A380 factories for a production rate of 4/month (40/year flightglobal) And there even was a plan to expand to rate 8/month.
:devil: :crazy: :devil: In the worst case for Emirates:
Airbus could just build and assemble the remaining A380 orders at rate 12, or a rate that is most economical. After all planes are assembled at Toulouse FAL (Station 40), they could close and re-purpose all A380 production sites. Airbus has created a enormous amount of stowage space for planes. The A380's could be stowed as gliders. Cabin outfitting and completion of the A380's could be adjusted to the delivery schedule.
The three slaps in Airbus face could have just been enough to make airbus decide to terminate the A380 program. :devil: :white:


The discussions are still ongoing! There was no guarantees that a deal would be reached at Dubai. If the A350 or A330NEO worked for EK, they would have ordered it. The 787-10 obviously just suited EK's needs better. That also doesn't mean EK won't order the A350 or A330NEO down the road. Like the tech industry, the airline industry is also always changing.
 
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Re: Airbus Working With Emirates on New Order for Flagship A380

Thu Nov 16, 2017 9:54 pm

CFRPwingALbody wrote:
ap305 wrote:
Bregier sounding very confident about the deal being closed soon....

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lqPepwHmleY


:o What is Bregier saying about Singapore in the last couple of seconds of the video?
From 2:45.
"...If we take Singapore Airlines, it's 19 {A380's}. They have decided to refurbish their hole fleet, and take the new. I think in even a few weeks"
Was this a slip of the tong?


No. They have 5 A380's left on order which will soon be delivered. The first 5 to be delivered to SQ are leaving the fleet (1 already gone) and they are getting these new 5. The aircraft between the old 5 and the new 5 are being refurbished.
 
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Re: Airbus Working With Emirates on New Order for Flagship A380

Thu Nov 16, 2017 9:58 pm

Revelation wrote:
ap305 wrote:
Bregier sounding very confident about the deal being closed soon....
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lqPepwHmleY

viewtopic.php?p=19966233#p19965969 #138 and #139 suggest that the deal is very close (and it has been all along) and the only real sticking point is how much Airbus would need to pay if the production line should be shut down early.

I am sure of it also by my Game Theory unfolding. All locks well together.
But not because Brégier says it, he'll probably die before he says otherwise : he is the staunchest supporter of the A380, predicting a "domino effect" in "China" ( and from there elsewhere ) within the next "decade". He pulled the JLA380 deal & probably sweetened the 3 NH birds in lieu of BC's 6.

CFRPwingALbody wrote:
What is Bregier saying about Singapore in the last couple of seconds of the video?

On Brégier about SQ, you should all read CAPA's article : "SIA will likely keep its owned A380s for more than 15 years due to the lack of resale options. SIA could end up operating the 14 aircraft that were initially delivered in 2008 to 2012 for approximately 20 years, enabling SIA to fully write down the fleet and investment in new product without needing to find a second-hand buyer."
https://centreforaviation.com/insights/ ... ity-381490

CFRPwingALbody wrote:
In my opinion Emirates gave Airbus three slabs in their face at this airshow. And I think Airbus is less likely to lissen to their wishes in the future.
1) It was Emirates that announced the additional A380 order, and by bringing in their demand for guaranteed production for 10+ years, they torpedo'ed it.
2) By cancelling the A350XWB (that was designed with Emirates demands in mind) order, and ordering B787 instead.
3) Emirates actually wanted the original A350 (A330 with carbon wing and new engines). Instead of B787 they could also have ordered A330NEO (conversion of A350XWB order).
The three slaps in Airbus face could have just been enough to make airbus decide to terminate the A380 program

Not a chance Airbus will terminate the A380 now.
Otherwise agreed on all 3 points except that it is not EK that torpedoed the original A350. The market did.
Last edited by DWC on Thu Nov 16, 2017 10:04 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
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Re: Airbus Working With Emirates on New Order for Flagship A380

Thu Nov 16, 2017 10:03 pm

DWC wrote:
If you want to have a look at the maths behind, here is a free PDF of the classic manual of Game Theory.


As someone who loves to share ideas and has been called "pedantic" here, I appreciate the thought but...
I studied economics as an undergrad - had two professors and a TA who won the Nobel prize - and took probably a master's-worth of econ classes while pursuing a different graduate degree. In all of those classes - and not just the economics ones - game theory was a fundamental building block. I'm quite familiar with it.

We don't have a real "game" here because the values of the cells are in dispute. You put your finger on the crux here:

DWC wrote:
EK & Airbus are both way better off with the A380.


Suppose a simple 2x2 game in which the rows are "Build VLA" and "No new VLA" and the players Boeing and Airbus.
In order to show that Airbus is better off with the A380, the cell where both players choose "No VLA" must have a lower value for Airbus than "Build VLA" where Boeing selects "No VLA." That play also must be optimal for Boeing, which is almost certainly an accurate description of its strategy.
So we don't really need to talk about game theory much here, as the game is simple once the cell values are established. We can focus only on two questions:

(1) Is Airbus better off? - this is the issue that you take as obvious but I would dispute; and
(2) Could Airbus have been better off than it is?

Re (1), we have to consider what Airbus could/should have done instead of an A380.
Re (2), we have to acknowledge that Airbus' "sub-strategy" given its "Build VLA" play was poorly conceived.
 
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Re: Airbus Working With Emirates on New Order for Flagship A380

Thu Nov 16, 2017 10:14 pm

DWC wrote:
Otherwise agreed on all 3 points except that it is not EK that torpedoed the original A350. The market did.


Intersting. They had sold some 200 frames of the original A350, which is nothing to sneeze at.

What killed it was (a) what Richard Aboulafia later called "the drug like rush of the 787" which explains (b) the extraordinary dummy spit by Stefan Udvar-Hazy (of then ILFC) which freaked out the then Airbus CEO, Dr. Humbert, whose tenure didn't last much longer and (c) the loss of the Qantas order when Boeing was suddenly able to pull 2008 delivery slots out of thin air. Like that worked - LOL.

A few of us believe that if they have gone ahead with it, it would have earned them a silver medal not a gold, as SHU said, but there's nothing wrong with a silver when it (a) costs you sixpence and (b) buys you the precious gift of time. Image

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Re: Airbus Working With Emirates on New Order for Flagship A380

Thu Nov 16, 2017 10:22 pm

I was playing devil's advocate for Emirates. I agree it's unlikely Airbus will terminate the A380. But NEO can't happen for years because engine manufactures are occupied with other engine projects. And they need to return some of their investment before a new engine can be developed. (Tech development continues)

But is the original A350 not exactly what Emirates wants now!? (And is the A330NEO less attractive because it hasn't got good crew rest area's and composite wings?)
The market lived with the fantasy of 30% weight reduction by replacing Al with composites. But they didn't know this only works for vertical tail planes; which experiences bending to the left or to the right. A uni-directional load case. The B787 and A350XWB are heavier because the market wanted such a high composite content.
If the material selection proces of the A380 was applied on the A350XWB it would have been a couple metric ton lighter, and also be cheaper to manufacture.
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Re: Airbus Working With Emirates on New Order for Flagship A380

Thu Nov 16, 2017 10:23 pm

typo : in my comment above, Brégier pulled the JL A350 deal ( obviously not the A380 ) :duck:

Matt6461 wrote:
As someone who loves to share ideas and has been called "pedantic" here, I appreciate the thought but...
I studied economics as an undergrad - had two professors and a TA who won the Nobel prize - and took probably a master's-worth of econ classes while pursuing a different graduate degree. In all of those classes - and not just the economics ones - game theory was a fundamental building block. I'm quite familiar with it.
We don't have a real "game" here because the values of the cells are in dispute

I'm curious : who was your TA ?
I have appreciated your inputs so far & also have some experience about being called "pedantic" ( watch the video above ), but you should do a PhD in Game Theory & read all the books by Tirole & others plus enough industrial case studies in Academic journals before pontificating that the A380's future fits in a basic 4-cell template à la John Nash. There's all of the UAE future in it & much of Airbus' strategy & int'l trunk routes evolution, it's further away from your simplistic 2x2 hopscotch than closer to a "N^2-body" matrix, which can indeed be simplified to a manageable size if calculated - today. For after-tomorrow, you'd need to throw in some Chaos Theory to account for how with "time" evolution grows erratic from "original conditions" : the A320, A330, A346, A350 & A380 illustrate this splendidly enough, results for all of them turned out very differently from those calculated by the best strategists in TLS. Good news is we have our two "strange attractors". For those who do not know about 2x2 decision tables, here is a cute illustration with practical effect https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jlSwJ7s1Kmo
Last edited by DWC on Thu Nov 16, 2017 10:49 pm, edited 2 times in total.
 
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Slug71
Posts: 1385
Joined: Wed Jan 04, 2017 6:08 am

Re: Airbus Working With Emirates on New Order for Flagship A380

Thu Nov 16, 2017 10:38 pm

CFRPwingALbody wrote:
I was playing devil's advocate for Emirates. I agree it's unlikely Airbus will terminate the A380. But NEO can't happen for years because engine manufactures are occupied with other engine projects. And they need to return some of their investment before a new engine can be developed. (Tech development continues)


A new engine (Ultrafan / Advance3) is in development, but about a decade out. Airbus could offer it with the T7000 in the mean time though. Redesigning the wing and reducing excess weight that was designed for the -900, would probably offer more efficiency than any current engine anyway. Problem there, is cost.
 
airfrnt
Posts: 2149
Joined: Fri Jul 02, 2004 2:05 am

Re: Airbus Working With Emirates on New Order for Flagship A380

Thu Nov 16, 2017 10:39 pm

speedbored wrote:
mariner wrote:
nothing explains it to me.

I can't help wondering whether some of what went on in Dubai might be explained by Dubai attempting to persuade the US Senate not to go ahead with this:
http://viewfromthewing.boardingarea.com ... had-qatar/


Honestly, Boeing isn't competing for this deal. Washington spends very little time thinking about what a European country might or might now want, and then gleefully twirling it's villainous mustache thinking this is a opportunity to screw EADS.
 
CFRPwingALbody
Posts: 277
Joined: Thu Oct 19, 2017 8:13 pm

Re: Airbus Working With Emirates on New Order for Flagship A380

Thu Nov 16, 2017 10:47 pm

Now we are off topic here, lets also trow in this brain-fart:
Should Airbus develop a A330-1000NEO by taking the A340-500 from the archives. Perfect competitor for 787-10?
Same pax capacity as A359, but 6k NM instead of 8k NM.

This game theory could also be applied on the scenario Airbus had developed the A350/..XWB. What if...
I think Airbus and RR/EA can't do more than A380+ and another engine PIP untill 2025. Only if airbus decides to develop a A310NEO as reaction on B797, they could get a engine for the A380NEO. The A380NEO engine needs to be shared with another project, AFAIK A330 is the right size and thrust requirement.
With production of the A380 going down to 8/year (0.75/month), they are going down to <20% of A380 production capability. No way this can be done without making losses.
The initial development cost of the A380 have far from repayed themselves. The market for A380's is for at least 10years to small to invest in engines for A380NEO alone.
Both Airbus and Emirates have missed a huge change with the A330NEO, in my opinion. The Trent7000 is to heavy for the A380NEO, (and A330NEO).
But >100 A330 and >200 A330NEO sales aren't bad. They missed a opportunity for the A380NEO, in my opinion.

I agree with you Slug71, I only think that the Trent7000 is to heavy. But I would like to be proven wrong!

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