mjoelnir wrote:Channex757 wrote:parapente wrote:Applying logic.
If Emirates do not order an additional 40 aircraft then we know production of the A380 must cease in about 5 years time.But this is the very thing Emirates appear to be desperate to avoid.If it did cease they would have to renegotiate their existing 380 leases -holding no cards at all.
I guess they would also have to go cap in hand to Boeing asking for a less than optimal 777-10 and pay whatever Boeing chooses to ask ( there would be nothing else available).
So in effect they must order these 40 aircraft.One assumes they would be Rr900 powered .Perhaps with a rumoured additional pip.By that time (10 years ar future production rates) they would have circa 85 RR powered 380's.Thats less than their current fleet by quite a margin and no doubt the (and their) market will continue to expand.
So at that time they would perhaps be looking for a further 40 maybe more depending on replacement strategy.
This is why thet appear to be so concerned about future production.But I don't think it's as simple as that.
The timing (10 years) coincides exactly where a new 70-80klbs thrust engine is needed.(787/350).
They have strongly asked for the present 'new' gen (T7000) but were told no.They cannot accept that a second time in 10 years time.
The problem for Airbus is they have already rejected the idea of a NEO for an order of 40.So would do so again in the future.
It is not an issue of promising to keep the line open for 10 years .The maths tell us that this would happen anyrate with the additional 40 order.
It is not a problem promising to keep the line open for 15 years actually.EK orders AB manufacturers-easy.
No it is 'what' they (and RR) are being asked to manufacture in 10 years time.
Now that timing does coincide with the 'classic' replacement cycle of 20 years for planes such as this.So it's more about all the other existing A380 operators than Emirates (we know they want a NEO already).In theory there should easily be another 100 aircraft.In theory only.
I guess the final answer might be a highly complicated (secret) legal agreement with plenty of get out clauses,but overlaying a promise to NEO ( at the very least) if the other orders/numbers are fourth coming at the time.(well that's my guess anyway)!
Just to put the cat among the pigeons, Emirates wants to go back to EA motors for this order.
All the work done on the wing and pylons by Airbus would need redoing. Their analysis for the A380plus was done using data for RR engined aircraft.
Source: http://www.latribune.fr/entreprises-fin ... 57663.html
So putting pressure both on RR and Airbus for the neo.
That seems to be what this is really all about and us been for a while. They want a NEO.
FWIW I think Airbus is right to say no. It isn’t the right place to be investing.