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Matt6461
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Re: Airbus Working With Emirates on New Order for Flagship A380

Sun Nov 19, 2017 10:42 am

slug71 wrote:
The A380 has better CASM than the 777 and I'd imagine it would not take a huge update to better the 777X


Published independent analyses say A380 retains CASM advantage over 777-9, mostly or entirely due to ownership cost per seat.

That's the wrong damn question. It's not simply CASM; it's capacity versus trip cost at the margins. Were CASM the only issue we'd see no 77W's flying.
 
DWC
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Re: Airbus Working With Emirates on New Order for Flagship A380

Sun Nov 19, 2017 12:18 pm

Matt6461 wrote:
slug71 wrote:
The A380 has better CASM than the 777 and I'd imagine it would not take a huge update to better the 777X

Published independent analyses say A380 retains CASM advantage over 777-9, mostly or entirely due to ownership cost per seat.

That's the wrong damn question. It's not simply CASM; it's capacity versus trip cost at the margins. Were CASM the only issue we'd see no 77W's flyig.

It's not only that.
Capacity is what EK excell at & revenue for every extra-passenger flown is not what only matters.
1. It is also all those passengers other airlines will not fly & thus the market share they cannot get.
2. It is also how these extra-passengers leave money at DXB duty-free & in Dubai itself.
3. It is also how EK consistently leap-frog every airline not using an A380 :
see how EK have stunted or destroyed competition from EU, Indian, SE-Asian & Oz Legacies & even LCCs (AsiaX)
A380s win on all these counts the moment they have enough passengers for their global benefits >= 777s + 777Xs
 
mjoelnir
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Re: Airbus Working With Emirates on New Order for Flagship A380

Sun Nov 19, 2017 1:12 pm

VV wrote:
Slug71 wrote:
The A380 has better CASM than the 777 and I'd imagine it would not take a huge update to better the 777X. Especially when you consider that the 777X is more expensive and heavier than the 77W, but also has the same MTOW and a lower exit limit. Seating capacity of the 777X over the 77W is not much different.

Does the A380 has better CASM than the 777-9? I do not have the numbers, so I cannot validate nor contest your statement, but I would have thought the 777-9 has similar CASM as the A350-1000 because the first has bigger capacity. And it is widely known that the A350-1000 has better CASM than the A380.


The 777-300 has a higher fuel burn per seat than the A380, the 777-9 supposedly a lower. But CASM depends not only on fuel burn. The A380 beats the 777 on nearly every other contributing factor. Crew cost per seat, CAPEX per seat and so on.

VV wrote:
I just do not understand your comment about 777-9 having the same size as the 777-300ER. Isn't the purpose of the 777-9 to stretch the 777-300ER by about 40 seats?


Compared to a A380, the size increase from a 777-300 to a 777-9 is negligible.
 
mjoelnir
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Re: Airbus Working With Emirates on New Order for Flagship A380

Sun Nov 19, 2017 1:13 pm

Matt6461 wrote:
slug71 wrote:
The A380 has better CASM than the 777 and I'd imagine it would not take a huge update to better the 777X


Published independent analyses say A380 retains CASM advantage over 777-9, mostly or entirely due to ownership cost per seat.

That's the wrong damn question. It's not simply CASM; it's capacity versus trip cost at the margins. Were CASM the only issue we'd see no 77W's flying.


What does it change what the reason is for the A380 CASM to be lower than the 777-9, the point is, it is lower.
 
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Re: Airbus Working With Emirates on New Order for Flagship A380

Sun Nov 19, 2017 2:06 pm

Amiga500 wrote:
Slug71 wrote:
But since we're blowing out of proportion, Airbus could offer a redesigned wing with other optimizations and the T7000 / GEnx until the end of next decade (new gen NEO), and ask EK for a 30 year commitment. :lol:

Well, to stick it back into proportion - the two parties could widen the discussion to a long term commitment from both sides.

1. Airbus to keep the existing line for X years.
2. EK to have a sustainable order spread over those years.
3. Airbus to develop a follow on A380-850 (re-wing, new engines) in 5-10 years time.
4. EK to commit to supporting this a/c, with at least XXX purchases and them willing to pay A380-800 prices + YYY /frame to justify development costs.

IAG looking for more A380s at decent prices will support the 2nd hand market, at least in the short term.

Personally I think that possibility was fully fleshed out during the 2014-5 NEO discussions and both sides emphasized that doing an A380neo without guarantees from customers other than EK was a non-starter. Since Airbus is now losing money on each A380 it produces I doubt that the circumstances have changed.

I think the negotiations are about the longevity of the production line and compensation for early termination, and I think both sides realize the A380neo cannot be mandated at this time. Yes, STC has said he wants future development of the A380 as a part of the deal, but IMHO he won't get Airbus to sign for that in any enforceable way.
Last edited by Revelation on Sun Nov 19, 2017 2:10 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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seahawk
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Re: Airbus Working With Emirates on New Order for Flagship A380

Sun Nov 19, 2017 2:07 pm

mjoelnir wrote:
Matt6461 wrote:
slug71 wrote:
The A380 has better CASM than the 777 and I'd imagine it would not take a huge update to better the 777X


Published independent analyses say A380 retains CASM advantage over 777-9, mostly or entirely due to ownership cost per seat.

That's the wrong damn question. It's not simply CASM; it's capacity versus trip cost at the margins. Were CASM the only issue we'd see no 77W's flying.


What does it change what the reason is for the A380 CASM to be lower than the 777-9, the point is, it is lower.


But only at 10 abreast vs. 10 abreast.
 
mjoelnir
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Re: Airbus Working With Emirates on New Order for Flagship A380

Sun Nov 19, 2017 2:13 pm

seahawk wrote:
mjoelnir wrote:
Matt6461 wrote:

Published independent analyses say A380 retains CASM advantage over 777-9, mostly or entirely due to ownership cost per seat.

That's the wrong damn question. It's not simply CASM; it's capacity versus trip cost at the margins. Were CASM the only issue we'd see no 77W's flying.


What does it change what the reason is for the A380 CASM to be lower than the 777-9, the point is, it is lower.


But only at 10 abreast vs. 10 abreast.


More advantage for the A380. I still have to see a comparison where the A380 goes to 11, something I assume we need not expect at EK. Perhaps somebody will do it for haddsch charters one day.
 
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Taxi645
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Re: Airbus Working With Emirates on New Order for Flagship A380

Sun Nov 19, 2017 2:19 pm

Revelation wrote:
Personally I think that possibility was fully fleshed out during the 2014-5 NEO discussions and both sides emphasized that doing an A380neo without guarantees from customers other than EK was a non-starter. Since Airbus is now losing money on each A380 it produces I doubt that the circumstances have changed.


The circumstances will very much have changed as, unlike 2015, for EIS 2025-2028 there will be engines available that help to remove the 10% drag penalty the current A380 flies around with. By that time guarantees won't be required any more, cause finally then Airbus will have a competitive plain which will "sell itself".

Revelation wrote:
I think the negotiations are about the longevity of the production line and compensation for early termination, and I think both sides realize the A380neo cannot be mandated at this time. Yes, STC has said he wants future development of the A380 as a part of the deal, but IMHO he won't get Airbus to sign for that in any enforceable way.


Agreed.
Innovation is seeing opportunity before obstacle.
 
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Re: Airbus Working With Emirates on New Order for Flagship A380

Sun Nov 19, 2017 3:19 pm

Matt6461 wrote:
Bregier's quote re committing to a MASSIVE future upgrade as part of commitment required by EK pricked my ears up.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... her-decade gives us some context:

Airbus is caught between its desire to extend the life of the A380, in service for only a decade, and a reluctance to give a long-term commitment to a plane that has long been struggling for sales. Bregier said “the principal” of a deal with Emirates would involve just such a promise, requiring it to win additional orders elsewhere and upgrade the model “massively” in coming years. “This is the plan,” he added. “We probably need to sharpen the pencils a bit.”

It's hard to see A signing up to continue a decade of very costly production. It's even harder to see Airbus commit to a "massive" upgrade years in advance, especially when no other customers are showing any significant interest in the product.

Matt6461 wrote:
It seems Dubai might be reconsidering DWC, and that more A380s are an adaptation to long-term slot constraints. The A380 is a 2nd-best solution in that world.

BUT if no DWC *and* no A380, then Dubai loses its relative status as a megahub. That's an outcome too severe to risk without massive Airbus guarantees, and those guarantees are likely far too dear for Airbus to give.

It does seem like EK is considering what happens if they can't afford to fulfill the DWC plan. Airbus would of course pick up on this and feel less need to offer EK the kind of guarantees it wants, because EK would be in a place where they had to have the A380 to sustain their business. And EK would pick up on Airbus's lack of motivation, and that would drive them to push even harder for the guarantees.

Taxi645 wrote:
Revelation wrote:
Personally I think that possibility was fully fleshed out during the 2014-5 NEO discussions and both sides emphasized that doing an A380neo without guarantees from customers other than EK was a non-starter. Since Airbus is now losing money on each A380 it produces I doubt that the circumstances have changed.


The circumstances will very much have changed as, unlike 2015, for EIS 2025-2028 there will be engines available that help to remove the 10% drag penalty the current A380 flies around with. By that time guarantees won't be required any more, cause finally then Airbus will have a competitive plain which will "sell itself".

Last time around there were engine options (T1000-TEN/T7000 and at least theoretically GEnx too) that were a generation ahead of GP7200/T900 at the same time the production line was ticking over at a profitable rate. All we got was a T900 PIP, presumably because that's all the market could bear. I've re-posted Tom William's comments that the T7000 engine doesn't make sense on A380. I think the reason is (despite the decades of seeing the same engines move between 767 and 747) that we've moved on to a point where the VLA and the big twin need engines optimized specifically to their role to achieve the state of the art performance being demanded of them (and we see the 747-8 has shortfalls using a 787 engine), and in turn this means the VLA largely has to justify this specifically optimized engine on its own, and it simply doesn't have the market to do so.

In particular, I don't think the ~2025 market size will justify the expense of any of the upcoming engines (Advance et al) being put onto A380. I think we'll see EK's 8/year refresh continue plus a few other incumbents might be tempted to refresh their fleet but it will in no way will the market justify a 'massive' update of the A380. Airbus has already said they won't do a NEO for just one customer, but EK is asking them to commit to doing just that years in advance, and I don't think they will.

Oh well, if they do, then we can say that STC's slap across Airbus's face worked! :biggrin:
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VV
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Re: Airbus Working With Emirates on New Order for Flagship A380

Sun Nov 19, 2017 3:22 pm

mjoelnir wrote:
The 777-300 has a higher fuel burn per seat than the A380, the 777-9 supposedly a lower. But CASM depends not only on fuel burn. The A380 beats the 777 on nearly every other contributing factor. Crew cost per seat, CAPEX per seat and so on.
... snipped ...
Compared to a A380, the size increase from a 777-300 to a 777-9 is negligible.


Something is not very clear in the first part of your statement relative to CAPEX. Let's call it the "Ownership Cost" or the "Equivalent Lease Rate".

Emirates ordered 150 777-9/-8 in July 2014. If they did, I guess they did the maths by themselves prior to placing the orders.

In reality, Emirates 777-9/-8 orders can be considered as normal since the airline is operating more than 160 777 (-300ER and -200LR and freighter), of which about 140 are 777-300ER. It confuses if you say that the A380 would have better seat mile cost than the 777-9. Very honestly, I do not have any numbers so I cannot say whether your assertion is correct or wrong, but I am pretty sure Emirates knows something about it.

The fact the airline didn't order the A380 quickly also confuses me a little bit if your assertions are correct.
 
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Re: Airbus Working With Emirates on New Order for Flagship A380

Sun Nov 19, 2017 3:26 pm

dreamerofplanes wrote:
A little more details from Bloomberg

http://www.arabianbusiness.com/industri ... d-in-dubai


Based on this article, I think the biggest roadblock to finalizing the deal were the engines. From the article, Rolls has pulled their pledge to upgrade the engine and would ask for more money for new engines:

"As Rolls retrenches under CEO Warren East, a similar offer is off the table, along with an earlier pledge to upgrade the Trent 900 turbine that powers the superjumbo, introducing further imponderables into Emirates’s calculations. "

So a great Airbus deal with expensive engines is not a great deal. Especially if these are the last A380s ever built.

So unless they get a great deal on existing engines from RR or EA or a commitment on more expensive but more efficient new engines, there is no business case to order...

I am translating the "we need commitment from Airbus" to "We need to get Airbus to work with their engine partners to make sure this plane has a future."

With both GE and RR having some significant issues, I don't see them committing to anything right now. Only wild card could be Pratt. UTX might be convinced to take over the EA partnership and build a GTF A380 size engine if it gets them agreement on the Rockwell Collins take-over. Seems like a long shot though.
 
VV
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Re: Airbus Working With Emirates on New Order for Flagship A380

Sun Nov 19, 2017 3:43 pm

scbriml wrote:
VV wrote:
But isn't it a possibility that Emirates' management might have decided that the airline would change the way it fulfil the demand as it was asked in my comment #621?


Sounds like wishful thinking, frankly.


I do not even understand why my statement should be considered as "wishful". I don't wish anything. I was just saying that it was a possibility that Emirates' management would change the way it fulfil the demand.

If you observe Emirates recent orders, that is the 777-9/-8 in 2014 and then 40 787-10 this month (plus options, including 787-9) then you can ask the question yourself, "What is Emirates doing?".

As you may or may not know, today Emirates operates about 100 A380 and about 166 777 (all sort of 777). Isn't it curious the airline ordered 40 787-10 (plus option including 787-9) when the smallest widebody in the fleet today is 777-200LR? Do you see a pattern here?

scbriml wrote:
Do you really think Emirates has changed their whole strategy since 3rd November? That's when their Chairman Sheikh Ahmed Bin Saeed Al Maktoum said on the delivery of their 100th A380 that they were in negotiations with Airbus for more. That's quite an "out there" interpretation of the events, IMHO.

Basically not only I asked the question whether Emirates' business model adjustment was possible, in reality something is already happening considering its recent widebody orders.

scbriml wrote:
I'm very confident that Emirates will order lots more A380s.


Good for you that you are confident about it. The question is more on Emirates' management willingness to order A380s. Maybe so, or maybe not. I do not know.
 
VV
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Re: Airbus Working With Emirates on New Order for Flagship A380

Sun Nov 19, 2017 3:48 pm

Amiga500 wrote:
VV wrote:
Is that a possibility?


Yes, its *possible* that the A380 doesn't have better CASM. Is it likely? If that were the case, then why would EK bother negotiating at all? Even more so, why would they bother rubbing Airbus' nose in it because of that and why would they not move to A35k negotations or ask for an A350-1100?


Are you sure this is a "negotiation"?

The way the press conference was cancelled, as described by Bloomberg, does not look like a negotiation to me.
 
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Re: Airbus Working With Emirates on New Order for Flagship A380

Sun Nov 19, 2017 4:45 pm

sharktail wrote:
Based on this article, I think the biggest roadblock to finalizing the deal were the engines. From the article, Rolls has pulled their pledge to upgrade the engine and would ask for more money for new engines:

"As Rolls retrenches under CEO Warren East, a similar offer is off the table, along with an earlier pledge to upgrade the Trent 900 turbine that powers the superjumbo, introducing further imponderables into Emirates’s calculations. "

So a great Airbus deal with expensive engines is not a great deal. Especially if these are the last A380s ever built.

So unless they get a great deal on existing engines from RR or EA or a commitment on more expensive but more efficient new engines, there is no business case to order...

I am translating the "we need commitment from Airbus" to "We need to get Airbus to work with their engine partners to make sure this plane has a future."

With both GE and RR having some significant issues, I don't see them committing to anything right now. Only wild card could be Pratt. UTX might be convinced to take over the EA partnership and build a GTF A380 size engine if it gets them agreement on the Rockwell Collins take-over. Seems like a long shot though.

Interesting. I've mentioned RR's financial challenges before. I hadn't seen them in this context yet.

All in all it seems to be a bad time to try to get a deal made. Airbus has the whole corruption thing going on at the same time Enders has taken sales away from Bregier and Leahy is leaving and they're struggling to get A320neo and A350 ramp ups accomplished. Add to that RR's fiscal challenges and it seems to be a poor time to be asking the board to agree to a decade's more production and "massive" upgrades too.
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Re: Airbus Working With Emirates on New Order for Flagship A380

Sun Nov 19, 2017 5:54 pm

VV wrote:
Amiga500 wrote:
VV wrote:
Is that a possibility?


Yes, its *possible* that the A380 doesn't have better CASM. Is it likely? If that were the case, then why would EK bother negotiating at all? Even more so, why would they bother rubbing Airbus' nose in it because of that and why would they not move to A35k negotations or ask for an A350-1100?


Are you sure this is a "negotiation"?

The way the press conference was cancelled, as described by Bloomberg, does not look like a negotiation to me.


Prior to the Air Show, they said they had HOPED to have the deal done. Not that they will. There's no doubt that an agreement fell through at the last minute, but these things happen. Just not in the public eye, which is why this has got so much attention and speculation. Embarrassing considering the circumstances, but they have both said that they are confident of a deal. Negotiations are not over.
 
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Re: Airbus Working With Emirates on New Order for Flagship A380

Sun Nov 19, 2017 5:57 pm

sharktail wrote:
dreamerofplanes wrote:
A little more details from Bloomberg

http://www.arabianbusiness.com/industri ... d-in-dubai


Based on this article, I think the biggest roadblock to finalizing the deal were the engines. From the article, Rolls has pulled their pledge to upgrade the engine and would ask for more money for new engines:

"As Rolls retrenches under CEO Warren East, a similar offer is off the table, along with an earlier pledge to upgrade the Trent 900 turbine that powers the superjumbo, introducing further imponderables into Emirates’s calculations. "

So a great Airbus deal with expensive engines is not a great deal. Especially if these are the last A380s ever built.

So unless they get a great deal on existing engines from RR or EA or a commitment on more expensive but more efficient new engines, there is no business case to order...

I am translating the "we need commitment from Airbus" to "We need to get Airbus to work with their engine partners to make sure this plane has a future."

With both GE and RR having some significant issues, I don't see them committing to anything right now. Only wild card could be Pratt. UTX might be convinced to take over the EA partnership and build a GTF A380 size engine if it gets them agreement on the Rockwell Collins take-over. Seems like a long shot though.



It looks like EK & AB are going to have consolidate on the T900 for any near future orders. It`s been said here before that
a further T900 PIP would be too expensive, & to what end? It`s an old design, just how much more is available? The same
could be construed for thoughts on a GTF coupled GP7200, it just wouldn`t be best use for the newer tech, to get the maximum
sfc worthwhile it has to be new tech on the core. Also haven't PW got their hands full with their small GTF for the forseeable?
 
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Slug71
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Re: Airbus Working With Emirates on New Order for Flagship A380

Sun Nov 19, 2017 6:20 pm

Taxi645 wrote:
Slug71 wrote:
Amiga500 wrote:

Well, to stick it back into proportion - the two parties could widen the discussion to a long term commitment from both sides.

1. Airbus to keep the existing line for X years.
2. EK to have a sustainable order spread over those years.
3. Airbus to develop a follow on A380-850 (re-wing, new engines) in 5-10 years time.
4. EK to commit to supporting this a/c, with at least XXX purchases and them willing to pay A380-800 prices + YYY /frame to justify development costs.


Honestly, I wouldn't be surprised if this is part of the negotiations. It really favours both parties.


Perhaps the deal didn't pull through because EK was yet too uncertain to commit sufficiently to an A380NEO?


That could be. I think there's a good chance it's at least one of the reasons. One of the newer posts mentions RR not willing to update the T900 further and charging more for a new engine. If that's the case, I'd say that had a lot to do with it too.


lightsaber wrote:
Taxi645 wrote:
Airbus needs other airlines to buy the A380. Something is wrong when one airline determines the fate.


We all know there is something wrong with the A380CEO. It's a program in need of an update, as we can see by the lack of orders by other airlines. However there is not yet a business case for an update. Hence why there are such prolonged negotiations about who carries the burden of the cost to prolong the program till there is a business case.

In my view a properly executed A380NEO won't have the problem of having only one airline buying it.


Agreed.
However, there is a business case for an update. It's the only way to get orders from other airlines IMO. Airbus is just (understandably) reluctant to make the investment.
 
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Slug71
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Re: Airbus Working With Emirates on New Order for Flagship A380

Sun Nov 19, 2017 6:29 pm

Tedd wrote:
sharktail wrote:
dreamerofplanes wrote:
A little more details from Bloomberg

http://www.arabianbusiness.com/industri ... d-in-dubai


Based on this article, I think the biggest roadblock to finalizing the deal were the engines. From the article, Rolls has pulled their pledge to upgrade the engine and would ask for more money for new engines:

"As Rolls retrenches under CEO Warren East, a similar offer is off the table, along with an earlier pledge to upgrade the Trent 900 turbine that powers the superjumbo, introducing further imponderables into Emirates’s calculations. "

So a great Airbus deal with expensive engines is not a great deal. Especially if these are the last A380s ever built.

So unless they get a great deal on existing engines from RR or EA or a commitment on more expensive but more efficient new engines, there is no business case to order...

I am translating the "we need commitment from Airbus" to "We need to get Airbus to work with their engine partners to make sure this plane has a future."

With both GE and RR having some significant issues, I don't see them committing to anything right now. Only wild card could be Pratt. UTX might be convinced to take over the EA partnership and build a GTF A380 size engine if it gets them agreement on the Rockwell Collins take-over. Seems like a long shot though.



It looks like EK & AB are going to have consolidate on the T900 for any near future orders. It`s been said here before that
a further T900 PIP would be too expensive, & to what end? It`s an old design, just how much more is available? The same
could be construed for thoughts on a GTF coupled GP7200, it just wouldn`t be best use for the newer tech, to get the maximum
sfc worthwhile it has to be new tech on the core. Also haven't PW got their hands full with their small GTF for the forseeable?


And the way around this would be to redesign the wing with weight and other optimizations. Turn the -800 into the base model. Which would be considered a "massive" update.
 
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speedbored
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Re: Airbus Working With Emirates on New Order for Flagship A380

Sun Nov 19, 2017 6:34 pm

VV wrote:
Are you sure this is a "negotiation"?
The way the press conference was cancelled, as described by Bloomberg, does not look like a negotiation to me.

I'm still not totally convinced that the last minute switch from an Airbus/EK press conference to a Boeing/EK one was actually driven by EK, or a deliberate attempt by EK to humiliate Airbus.

It is equally possible that Airbus were pushing EK hard to sign a deal at the show, EK added their production guarantee demands into the negotiation quite late on, and Airbus left it until the last minute to tell EK that they could not agree to it ... yet. EK then, rather than cancel the press conference, hastily asked Boeing to step in and bring forward the 787 announcement instead.
 
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mariner
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Re: Airbus Working With Emirates on New Order for Flagship A380

Sun Nov 19, 2017 6:51 pm

speedbored wrote:
VV wrote:
Are you sure this is a "negotiation"?
The way the press conference was cancelled, as described by Bloomberg, does not look like a negotiation to me.

I'm still not totally convinced that the last minute switch from an Airbus/EK press conference to a Boeing/EK one was actually driven by EK, or a deliberate attempt by EK to humiliate Airbus.

It is equally possible that Airbus were pushing EK hard to sign a deal at the show, EK added their production guarantee demands into the negotiation quite late on, and Airbus left it until the last minute to tell EK that they could not agree to it ... yet. EK then, rather than cancel the press conference, hastily asked Boeing to step in and bring forward the 787 announcement instead.


I think it is extraordinarily unlikely that Airbus would have walked away from an offered deal, nor does it fit in with the Leahy comment - "ask Emirates."

mariner
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VV
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Re: Airbus Working With Emirates on New Order for Flagship A380

Sun Nov 19, 2017 7:08 pm

Emphasis added
Slug71 wrote:
VV wrote:
Are you sure this is a "negotiation"?

The way the press conference was cancelled, as described by Bloomberg, does not look like a negotiation to me.


Prior to the Air Show, they said they had HOPED to have the deal done. Not that they will. There's no doubt that an agreement fell through at the last minute, but these things happen. Just not in the public eye, which is why this has got so much attention and speculation. Embarrassing considering the circumstances, but they have both said that they are confident of a deal. Negotiations are not over.


So, according to you the "negotiations" are not over. That's a very interesting view. I HOPE you are right.
 
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Slug71
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Re: Airbus Working With Emirates on New Order for Flagship A380

Sun Nov 19, 2017 7:16 pm

VV wrote:
Slug71 wrote:
But the A380 deal is not off the table and it would require EK to change their whole business model.


But isn't it a possibility that Emirates' management might have decided that the airline would change the way it fulfil the demand as it was asked in my comment #621?
VV in #621 wrote:
What if Emirates' management has already decided to change the way it serves the demand?

I am not saying they will change the business model, but one must consider this possibility too.


Absolutely no way such a decision can be made in a week.
That would be HUNDREDS OF $BILLIONS worth of decisions.

Slug71 wrote:
VV wrote:
The A380 has better CASM than the 777 and I'd imagine it would not take a huge update to better the 777X. Especially when you consider that the 777X is more expensive and heavier than the 77W, but also has the same MTOW and a lower exit limit. Seating capacity of the 777X over the 77W is not much different.


I just do not understand your comment about 777-9 having the same size as the 777-300ER. Isn't the purpose of the 777-9 to stretch the 777-300ER by about 40 seats?


Not sure if the A380 has better CASM than the 777-9, but it can't be far off if it doesn't.

779 MTOW is 775,000 lbs
77W MTOW is 775,000 lbs
779 is HEAVIER than the 77W (both OEW and MZFW)
779 exit limit is 475
77W exit limit is 550
779 range is 7600 nmi
77W range is 7370 nmi
779 seats more in a 2-class
77W seats more in a 3-class
779 list price $408.8M
77W list price $320.2M

The differences are not significant by any means at cost difference of $88.6M.
A380 list price is $438.9M. A difference of $28.1M to the 779.

Maintenance and operating costs is where the 779 will excel over the 77W and A380.
 
VV
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Re: Airbus Working With Emirates on New Order for Flagship A380

Sun Nov 19, 2017 7:48 pm

Slug71 wrote:
VV wrote:
But isn't it a possibility that Emirates' management might have decided that the airline would change the way it fulfil the demand as it was asked in my comment #621?
VV in #621 wrote:
What if Emirates' management has already decided to change the way it serves the demand?

I am not saying they will change the business model, but one must consider this possibility too.


Absolutely no way such a decision can be made in a week.
That would be HUNDREDS OF $BILLIONS worth of decisions.


What if the decision has already been taken in 2014 when they finally ordered the 777-9/-8? I am not at all saying that it is the case, but shouldn't one consider this possibility, especially after they ordered 40 787-10 (with options that could include 787-9) several days ago?

Basically, not only I asked the question whether there is a possibility Emirates could potentially change the way the airline operates, in reality there are signs that it is already happening.

In one of the comments above it was mentioned that Emirates' smallest widebody today is the 777-200LR. So, their choice to order 787-10 is rather curious. I might be looking too much into it, but doesn't it mean something is changing already?
 
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Slug71
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Re: Airbus Working With Emirates on New Order for Flagship A380

Sun Nov 19, 2017 8:09 pm

VV wrote:
Slug71 wrote:
VV wrote:
But isn't it a possibility that Emirates' management might have decided that the airline would change the way it fulfil the demand as it was asked in my comment #621?

I am not saying they will change the business model, but one must consider this possibility too.


Absolutely no way such a decision can be made in a week.
That would be HUNDREDS OF $BILLIONS worth of decisions.


What if the decision has already been taken in 2014 when they finally ordered the 777-9/-8? I am not at all saying that it is the case, but shouldn't one consider this possibility, especially after they ordered 40 787-10 (with options that could include 787-9) several days ago?

Basically, not only I asked the question whether there is a possibility Emirates could potentially change the way the airline operates, in reality there are signs that it is already happening.

In one of the comments above it was mentioned that Emirates' smallest widebody today is the 777-200LR. So, their choice to order 787-10 is rather curious. I might be looking too much into it, but doesn't it mean something is changing already?


Then there would be no need in negotiating for more A380s now and the plans for DWC would have changed which it has not. We just recently heard that DWC will be able to support 200 A380s.

http://m.atwonline.com/airbus-a380/clar ... ai-airport
 
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Jayafe
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Re: Airbus Working With Emirates on New Order for Flagship A380

Sun Nov 19, 2017 8:21 pm

VV wrote:
What if the decision has already been taken in 2014 when they finally ordered the 777-9/-8? I am not at all saying that it is the case, but shouldn't one consider this possibility, especially after they ordered 40 787-10 (with options that could include 787-9) several days ago?


Not at all. The 787 is part of the EK program for regional. The 777x order is mainly for replacements of existing 2nd tier planes (777s) currently flying.

VV wrote:
Basically, not only I asked the question whether there is a possibility Emirates could potentially change the way the airline operates, in reality there are signs that it is already happening.


Indeed you are, wishfully looking for reasons to justify a scenery that, for next 10-15 years at least, is not even close to exist.
 
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Momo1435
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Re: Airbus Working With Emirates on New Order for Flagship A380

Sun Nov 19, 2017 9:51 pm

I don't believe that Emirates are seriously looking at the 777-9 as a replacement for the A380. This new deal might be much more about the retirement schedule of the oldest A380s. With this deal they can go ahead with their already scheduled retirement schedule, as this deal will mean that they will have a guarantee that they will able to take delivery of new A380s for over 10 years from now. Without this deal this guarantee falls away making it more necessary to not retire the frames as early as they usually do. Giving them more time to see what they are going to do when the time does come to start replacing the A380. But that decision might only be needed 10 years from now, and who knows what new kind of planes Airbus and Boeing will have launched by then.

I wouldn't be surprised that Emirates will still place an top-up order, even if they don't get the guaranteed more then 10 years of production. That order will not be for the replacement of current frames, but only for expansion. If they do get the guarantee it will most likely mean more Emirates orders coming on top of the 30+ deal that was supposed to be signed at the airshow.

I can imagine that these are very tense negotiations, it doesn't happen too often that the continuation of a product line is depending on one single order.
 
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Re: Airbus Working With Emirates on New Order for Flagship A380

Sun Nov 19, 2017 11:23 pm

Slug71 wrote:
Then there would be no need in negotiating for more A380s now and the plans for DWC would have changed which it has not. We just recently heard that DWC will be able to support 200 A380s.

http://m.atwonline.com/airbus-a380/clar ... ai-airport


Did Emirates mean the 200 A380 were all theirs?

Did I read the world "potential"?
 
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Slug71
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Re: Airbus Working With Emirates on New Order for Flagship A380

Sun Nov 19, 2017 11:39 pm

VV wrote:
Slug71 wrote:
Then there would be no need in negotiating for more A380s now and the plans for DWC would have changed which it has not. We just recently heard that DWC will be able to support 200 A380s.

http://m.atwonline.com/airbus-a380/clar ... ai-airport


Did Emirates mean the 200 A380 were all theirs?

Did I read the world "potential"?


Did you read it? From the first 2 paragraphs,

The new Dubai World Central Airport (DWC) would allow Emirates Airline to operate 200 Airbus A380s – twice as many as it has today, the carrier’s president said Friday.

Speaking to ATW in Hamburg on the sidelines of ceremonies for the delivery of Emirates’ 100th A380, Tim Clark said the new airport will have 100 gates capable of handling very large aircraft (VLA) like the A380 and Boeing 747-8i, which would “easily” facilitate the operation of 200 A380s.
 
VV
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Re: Airbus Working With Emirates on New Order for Flagship A380

Sun Nov 19, 2017 11:47 pm

Jayafe wrote:
VV wrote:
What if the decision has already been taken in 2014 when they finally ordered the 777-9/-8? I am not at all saying that it is the case, but shouldn't one consider this possibility, especially after they ordered 40 787-10 (with options that could include 787-9) several days ago?


Not at all. The 787 is part of the EK program for regional. The 777x order is mainly for replacements of existing 2nd tier planes (777s) currently flying.


Okay, let's see it this way. Today EK is operating about 100 A380 and about 166 777 (-200LR, -300, -300ER and freighter). I hope the current situation is clear, including the fact the smallest widebody in EK's current fleet is the 777-200LR.

Now, EK ordered 777-9/-8 in 2014. According to your statement it is to replace the current 777s. Be it, let us assume it is the case.

Several days ago EK ordered the 787-10 (plus option, including possible 787-9). You said that it was for EK's regional program. I have to interpret your statement by either EK put a little bit more focus on "regional" operation thus a change, or they are changing the aircraft for regional service from 777 and A380 with 787-10 (and maybe 787-9) which also mean a change.

In simple words, In any case something is happening, isn't it? In other words, EK has today two aircraft ypes, that are the A380 and 777. In several years they will have 777-9/-8 and 787-10 (plus possible 787-9) and A380 if the A380 order happens, Don't you see any change there? I do.

Had EK ordered the A350-1000 instead of the 787-10 (and options that could include 787-9), I would have understood the reasoning that nothing is changing.

Jayafe wrote:
VV wrote:
Basically, not only I asked the question whether there is a possibility Emirates could potentially change the way the airline operates, in reality there are signs that it is already happening.


Indeed you are, wishfully looking for reasons to justify a scenery that, for next 10-15 years at least, is not even close to exist.


I do not understand the underlined part of the comment. Can you please be more explicit?

In general, I sincerely think the question is not necessarily about the A380 or any aircraft, but Emirates' intention on how to satisfy the demand. This is the part we do not know. I, for sure, do not know. And from what I read from this thread, it seems no one here knows either.

What if the fundamental question is not the A380, but a kind of change inside Emirates?

Maybe the discussion should be changed toward speculations about Emirates' strategy shift. We might find better explanation there.
 
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Re: Airbus Working With Emirates on New Order for Flagship A380

Sun Nov 19, 2017 11:53 pm

Slug71 wrote:
VV wrote:
Did Emirates mean the 200 A380 were all theirs?

Did I read the world "potential"?


Did you read it? From the first 2 paragraphs,

The new Dubai World Central Airport (DWC) would allow Emirates Airline to operate 200 Airbus A380s – twice as many as it has today, the carrier’s president said Friday.

Speaking to ATW in Hamburg on the sidelines of ceremonies for the delivery of Emirates’ 100th A380, Tim Clark said the new airport will have 100 gates capable of handling very large aircraft (VLA) like the A380 and Boeing 747-8i, which would “easily” facilitate the operation of 200 A380s.


Well, I did read the new airport "would allow" Emirates airline to operate 200 Airbus A380.

It would also allow them to operate a damn lot of other aircraft, including a huge number of narrowbodies operated by partner feeder airline(s).
 
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Jayafe
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Re: Airbus Working With Emirates on New Order for Flagship A380

Mon Nov 20, 2017 12:26 am

VV wrote:
Well, I did read the new airport "would allow" Emirates airline to operate 200 Airbus A380.

It would also allow them to operate a damn lot of other aircraft, including a huge number of narrowbodies operated by partner feeder airline(s).


Certainly. It would also allow to operate helicopters. Or tractors. Or sheeps. Or donkeys. But this rambling non sense falls far from the topic of the thread. A380+EK

If you are looking for discussing something else or trying to convince someone about those inconsistent arguments, please open a new thread.
 
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Slug71
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Re: Airbus Working With Emirates on New Order for Flagship A380

Mon Nov 20, 2017 12:27 am

VV wrote:
Well, I did read the new airport "would allow" Emirates airline to operate 200 Airbus A380.

It would also allow them to operate a damn lot of other aircraft, including a huge number of narrowbodies operated by partner feeder airline(s).


Yes it would. Except the gates, gate box and jet bridges (upper and lower deck) will all be designed around the A380 or a VLA. A380 and 747-8i use a Group 6 box. 777 and <744 use a Group 5. A320/737 is a Group 3.
 
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Re: Airbus Working With Emirates on New Order for Flagship A380

Mon Nov 20, 2017 4:01 am

The following article states more reasons why this A380 deal is harder to get done. The second hand market view is particularly interesting...


https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/airb ... ector.html


"For Emirates, the problem runs deeper than simply buying an aircraft from Airbus.

Airlines deal directly with numerous suppliers, from landing gears to tyres and entertainment systems. Each takes its cue from the planemaker as conductor of a large orchestra.

"If you're the only customer your fear is the manufacturer will lose interest and that becomes a signal to suppliers to make support a lower priority," a person close to the matter said. "Then you end up unsure who is supporting what."

The biggest question mark hangs over the massive engines.

In 2015, Britain's Rolls-Royce won its largest-ever order, worth $9 billion, to displace U.S. consortium Engine Alliance to power a batch of 50 four-engined A380s for Emirates.

But to win the deal it gave ambitious fuel-consumption targets and Emirates signalled last week the cards could be shuffled again for the potential new order. "If we ordered more, we might contemplate talking to both sides," Clark said.

But Engine Alliance output ends in 2018. Keeping its assembly lines warm would require a fresh commitment from its parents General Electric and Pratt & Whitney.

"That's a pretty big ask right now. It all comes down to money," a person close to the consortium said.

GE is involved in a major rethink of strategy and wants to be more selective about investments, while Pratt & Whitney is absorbed with fixing delays on smaller engines.

SECOND-HAND MARKET

Keeping engine makers on board is all the more challenging because of the lack of an A380 second-hand market.

Engine makers make money on spares and services over the working life of an engine which is usually 20-25 years.

But in another accident of timing, the first A380 to carry passengers, in 2007, was being mothballed in France just as Airbus was trying to cling on to an Emirates deal at last week's show, after just 10 years in service with Singapore Airlines.

That sets a worrying precedent for suppliers of Emirates, which usually operates planes for 12 years and around 20 of whose A380s may exit the fleet to make way for new purchases.

Faced with the possibility that any new A380 engines may have only half their budgeted life, engine makers may charge more for them up-front or more in hourly service contracts."
harder than woodpecker lips...
 
VV
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Re: Airbus Working With Emirates on New Order for Flagship A380

Mon Nov 20, 2017 7:26 am

Jayafe wrote:
VV wrote:
Well, I did read the new airport "would allow" Emirates airline to operate 200 Airbus A380.

It would also allow them to operate a damn lot of other aircraft, including a huge number of narrowbodies operated by partner feeder airline(s).


Certainly. It would also allow to operate helicopters. Or tractors. Or sheeps. Or donkeys. But this rambling non sense falls far from the topic of the thread. A380+EK

If you are looking for discussing something else or trying to convince someone about those inconsistent arguments, please open a new thread.


Isn't Emirates possible A380 order closely related to its strategic choice in the future?

If Emirates really needs A380s to operate and if the aircraft is more economical to operate than the 777-9, 787-10 on per seat basis, then most probably Emirates would have pushed the deal to happen without requesting any industrial guarantee of any kind. A resale value guarantee (or value retention guarantee or residual value guarantee) would be largely sufficient.

So, in my opinion, the discussion about A380 at Emirates must be firstly about Emirates' strategic choices. If its management sees a future with a lot of A380 then there is no doubt the deal will happen. Otherwise, it won't happen.

One point that makes me a little bit puzzled is the discussion about improvement for the A380. If I read some of the above comments mentioning an excellent cost efficiency of the A380, I do not understand why there should be even further improvement. If there is no other aircraft as efficient, perhaps Emirates would not hesitate to take even more A380 today. Is there anything I do not understand here?
 
VV
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Re: Airbus Working With Emirates on New Order for Flagship A380

Mon Nov 20, 2017 7:39 am

Slug71 wrote:
VV wrote:
Well, I did read the new airport "would allow" Emirates airline to operate 200 Airbus A380.

It would also allow them to operate a damn lot of other aircraft, including a huge number of narrowbodies operated by partner feeder airline(s).


Yes it would. Except the gates, gate box and jet bridges (upper and lower deck) will all be designed around the A380 or a VLA. A380 and 747-8i use a Group 6 box. 777 and <744 use a Group 5. A320/737 is a Group 3.


Don't you think it would be a huge mistake to design an airport exclusively for A380? It would be a pity for the airport if it can only operate A380.

By the way, is the gate limitation valid for smaller aircraft? It might be not so efficient to serve an E195 on a category 6 gate, but I do not see any safety reason why it cannot be done.

In addition, there are two points for any mission, departure and arrival. Do you think Emirates will be able to ask the destination airports to improve their infrastructure to accommodate the capacity increase?
 
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Re: Airbus Working With Emirates on New Order for Flagship A380

Mon Nov 20, 2017 8:22 am

mariner wrote:
I think it is extraordinarily unlikely that Airbus would have walked away from an offered deal, nor does it fit in with the Leahy comment - "ask Emirates."


In retrospect and going by what the Boeing mouthpiece Saj Ahmad published recently
this was Boeing's doing. and it seems to have been planned.
Murphy is an optimist
 
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Re: Airbus Working With Emirates on New Order for Flagship A380

Mon Nov 20, 2017 8:25 am

VV wrote:
Don't you think it would be a huge mistake to design an airport exclusively for A380? It would be a pity for the airport if it can only operate A380.


Equal number of VLA and XVLA stands. This is public knowledge.
Murphy is an optimist
 
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keesje
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Re: Airbus Working With Emirates on New Order for Flagship A380

Mon Nov 20, 2017 8:29 am

VV: If Emirates really needs A380s to operate and if the aircraft is more economical to operate than the 777-9, 787-10 on per seat basis, then most probably Emirates would have pushed the deal to happen without requesting any industrial guarantee of any kind


I think EK wants to place an A380 order, they repeatedly state so. So we could close the discussion on that.

http://www.dailypost.co.uk/business/business-news/emirates-committed-airbus-a380-jumbo-13865404

Apparently the parties don't agree on the terms & conditions yet. Don't worry, they will sign the $xx billion contract later on.
Probably before year end, unless there are no yearly price increases.

Image

I can see a few other carriers signing up too.
Last edited by keesje on Mon Nov 20, 2017 8:38 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Airbus Working With Emirates on New Order for Flagship A380

Mon Nov 20, 2017 8:38 am

VV wrote:
Basically, not only I asked the question whether there is a possibility Emirates could potentially change the way the airline operates, in reality there are signs that it is already happening.

In one of the comments above it was mentioned that Emirates' smallest widebody today is the 777-200LR. So, their choice to order 787-10 is rather curious. I might be looking too much into it, but doesn't it mean something is changing already?

The changes surround the EK / FZ relationship.

Previously, the golden rules were: Behave and operate as separate, competing entities, with the constraint FZ could only operate NB aircraft, and EK only WB., with two gentleman's agreements - no route overlaps, and if there is route conflict, the route is EK's.

The EK 787 order enshrines the agreement. Despite intense FZ lobbying, they have been denied approval to acquire WB aircraft for the time being, but can purchase NB's with increased capability. The alternative would have been a free for all, with EK and FZ ordering lower capacity WB aircraft, and maybe EK even ordering NB.

The recently formalised JV cements the relationship, though eventually, I can see FZ becoming an EK brand.
 
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Re: Airbus Working With Emirates on New Order for Flagship A380

Mon Nov 20, 2017 8:38 am

Fabrice Bregier: " “If we finalise it we will be committed to producing this aircraft, I believe, for at least for the next 10 years.”"

Source: http://www.arabianbusiness.com/industri ... d-in-dubai
The next airline CEO :crossfingers:
 
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Re: Airbus Working With Emirates on New Order for Flagship A380

Mon Nov 20, 2017 8:39 am

WIederling wrote:
mariner wrote:
I think it is extraordinarily unlikely that Airbus would have walked away from an offered deal, nor does it fit in with the Leahy comment - "ask Emirates."


In retrospect and going by what the Boeing mouthpiece Saj Ahmad published recently
this was Boeing's doing. and it seems to have been planned.


Which means that Emirates would have had to be in cahoots with Boeing in unnecessarily alienating Airbus?

Well, maybe, but I doubt that Emirates knew what Airbus - as in John Leahy - had up his sleeve so for all Emirates knew they were denying Airbus their chance of a sale at the show, which meant kicking John Leahy in the nuts prior to his retirement. None of this matters in the great scheme of business things, it simply seems to me to be extremely unlikely. Generally, in business, you don't do unnecessary personal harm.

Happily, of course, Leahy still had one more trick up his sleeve and was able to wipe any smile off Emirates face, and if Boeing was (your plan) prime mover in all this it wiped some of the smugness off their face, too. What comes around goes around?

mariner

ps: Saj Ahmad seems to be rapidly becoming this year's Richard Aboulafia. LOL.
aeternum nauta
 
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Taxi645
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Re: Airbus Working With Emirates on New Order for Flagship A380

Mon Nov 20, 2017 9:01 am

Revelation wrote:
Taxi645 wrote:
The circumstances will very much have changed as, unlike 2015, for EIS 2025-2028 there will be engines available that help to remove the 10% drag penalty the current A380 flies around with. By that time guarantees won't be required any more, cause finally then Airbus will have a competitive plain which will "sell itself".

Last time around there were engine options (T1000-TEN/T7000 and at least theoretically GEnx too) that were a generation ahead of GP7200/T900 at the same time the production line was ticking over at a profitable rate. All we got was a T900 PIP, presumably because that's all the market could bear. I've re-posted Tom William's comments that the T7000 engine doesn't make sense on A380. I think the reason is (despite the decades of seeing the same engines move between 767 and 747) that we've moved on to a point where the VLA and the big twin need engines optimized specifically to their role to achieve the state of the art performance being demanded of them (and we see the 747-8 has shortfalls using a 787 engine), and in turn this means the VLA largely has to justify this specifically optimized engine on its own, and it simply doesn't have the market to do so.

In particular, I don't think the ~2025 market size will justify the expense of any of the upcoming engines (Advance et al) being put onto A380. I think we'll see EK's 8/year refresh continue plus a few other incumbents might be tempted to refresh their fleet but it will in no way will the market justify a 'massive' update of the A380. Airbus has already said they won't do a NEO for just one customer, but EK is asking them to commit to doing just that years in advance, and I don't think they will.


We've had all of this discussion before. No need to redo it completely. The A380 should have a lot of efficiency of scale, however due to it's weight and 80m span limit it has a span-loading issue (weight to wingspan ratio). Others might call it a wing aspect ratio issue, but that is not relevant to the point. It thus flies around with a 10% drag penalty. That is just too much of an additional cost to be really competitive in the market (as is obvious by it's lack of orders). As I don't see a realistic possibility to avoid the 80m span limit the other option is to reduce weight.

Now as most of you know taking weight out of a plane is not something that is easily (economically) done and the A380 would need a "massive" amount of weight reduction to sufficiently address it's induced drag penalty. That's why a T7000 or something like that wouldn't do. It would cost a hell of a lot of money to integrate on the plane while it's SFC improvement doesn't come nearly close enough to help it tackle the overweight issue in an economical fashion.

A GTF engine would change all that. The SFC (and fuel load) improvement is so enormous, that a “massive” (I think I'll stick with that word) weight reduction program does start to become economically feasible. The wing, empennage, landing gear etc all become feasible for an "massive" weight reduction update (which without the fuel load reduction, it wouldn't). Especially if we keep in mind that the A380 was not fully optimized for it's current 800 size. Yes it would still be very costly, but if they can sell 500+ of them that still would make financial sense.

Optimize the MTOW around a reduced 7.600-7.800nm range (range can increase through PIP's again), say somewhere between 500-515T, together with plus style scimitar wing ends and you would be looking at an effective aspect ratio of 9.5 in stead of the current 7.5 (plus=8.4). Still not state of the art by 2025 standards, but the (induced) drag penalty would be marginal enough that it's economy of scale efficiencies would (finally) shine through and it's CASM advantage would be high enough to effectively compete with the smaller twins.
Innovation is seeing opportunity before obstacle.
 
Amiga500
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Re: Airbus Working With Emirates on New Order for Flagship A380

Mon Nov 20, 2017 9:56 am

Taxi645 wrote:
The A380 should have a lot of efficiency of scale, however due to it's weight and 80m span limit it has a span-loading issue (weight to wingspan ratio). Others might call it a wing aspect ratio issue, but that is not relevant to the point. It thus flies around with a 10% drag penalty. That is just too much of an additional cost to be really competitive in the market (as is obvious by it's lack of orders). As I don't see a realistic possibility to avoid the 80m span limit the other option is to reduce weight.


There are more options than just reducing weight.

1. Since you are not building the -800F or -900, you don't need the same wing area, in fact, you don't want the same wing area (the A380-800 suffers from too much induced and parasitic drag). Therefore you can redesign the wing, shorten the wing chord and improve aspect ratio = reduce both main constituents of drag.
2. Foldable wingtips (Airbus do have patents regarding these) would allow you to keep with the 80m box while at the ramp, but extend beyond it while on the runway or airborne. This would also push up aspect ratio (obviously), lowering lift-dependent drag.

However, if you just tacked on foldable wingtips to the existing wings, then you are increasing wetted area to the point parasitic drag is likely to mostly cancel out any reduction in induced drag. So really, the best solution would be a wholly new wing with foldable wingtips (perhaps with CFRP spars to enable a thinner section, reducing form drag while they are at it).


Even if they did decide to stretch the fuselage to the -900 spec, the existing wing would be compromised by the 80m box limit. Unfortunately two big decisions have really hampered the A380 program:
- sticking with the 80m wing span limit and not seeking novel solutions (like folding wingtips)
- starting with the -800 shrink rather than the optimal -900.
Rectifying both of these is not cheap.

If money was no object, the best solution would be a half-stretch to -850 a new wing and have a common engine interface (if not wholly common architecture) with the A330neo.
 
Noshow
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Re: Airbus Working With Emirates on New Order for Flagship A380

Mon Nov 20, 2017 10:02 am

Just to remind you please they had planned some -700 as the smallest family member as well. So the -800 is no "shrink".
 
Amiga500
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Re: Airbus Working With Emirates on New Order for Flagship A380

Mon Nov 20, 2017 10:05 am

Noshow wrote:
Just to remind you please they had planned some -700 as the smallest family member as well. So the -800 is no "shrink".


They had?

Well fk me that was stupid. Did the A318 teach them nothing?


[and the -800 is a shrink, none of the wing, engines or empennage are sized for the -800]
Last edited by Amiga500 on Mon Nov 20, 2017 10:10 am, edited 1 time in total.
 
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Matt6461
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Re: Airbus Working With Emirates on New Order for Flagship A380

Mon Nov 20, 2017 10:09 am

Amiga500 wrote:
Noshow wrote:
Just to remind you please they had planned some -700 as the smallest family member as well. So the -800 is no "shrink".


They had?

Well fk me that was stupid. Did the A318 teach them nothing?


[and the -800 is a shrink]


Seriously stupid if inclusion of -700 in the family partially caused the massive empennage size.
 
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Re: Airbus Working With Emirates on New Order for Flagship A380

Mon Nov 20, 2017 10:10 am

Taxi645 wrote:
Revelation wrote:
Taxi645 wrote:
The circumstances will very much have changed as, unlike 2015, for EIS 2025-2028 there will be engines available that help to remove the 10% drag penalty the current A380 flies around with. By that time guarantees won't be required any more, cause finally then Airbus will have a competitive plain which will "sell itself".

Last time around there were engine options (T1000-TEN/T7000 and at least theoretically GEnx too) that were a generation ahead of GP7200/T900 at the same time the production line was ticking over at a profitable rate. All we got was a T900 PIP, presumably because that's all the market could bear. I've re-posted Tom William's comments that the T7000 engine doesn't make sense on A380. I think the reason is (despite the decades of seeing the same engines move between 767 and 747) that we've moved on to a point where the VLA and the big twin need engines optimized specifically to their role to achieve the state of the art performance being demanded of them (and we see the 747-8 has shortfalls using a 787 engine), and in turn this means the VLA largely has to justify this specifically optimized engine on its own, and it simply doesn't have the market to do so.

In particular, I don't think the ~2025 market size will justify the expense of any of the upcoming engines (Advance et al) being put onto A380. I think we'll see EK's 8/year refresh continue plus a few other incumbents might be tempted to refresh their fleet but it will in no way will the market justify a 'massive' update of the A380. Airbus has already said they won't do a NEO for just one customer, but EK is asking them to commit to doing just that years in advance, and I don't think they will.


We've had all of this discussion before. No need to redo it completely. The A380 should have a lot of efficiency of scale, however due to it's weight and 80m span limit it has a span-loading issue (weight to wingspan ratio). Others might call it a wing aspect ratio issue, but that is not relevant to the point. It thus flies around with a 10% drag penalty. That is just too much of an additional cost to be really competitive in the market (as is obvious by it's lack of orders). As I don't see a realistic possibility to avoid the 80m span limit the other option is to reduce weight.

Now as most of you know taking weight out of a plane is not something that is easily (economically) done and the A380 would need a "massive" amount of weight reduction to sufficiently address it's induced drag penalty. That's why a T7000 or something like that wouldn't do. It would cost a hell of a lot of money to integrate on the plane while it's SFC improvement doesn't come nearly close enough to help it tackle the overweight issue in an economical fashion.

A GTF engine would change all that. The SFC (and fuel load) improvement is so enormous, that a “massive” (I think I'll stick with that word) weight reduction program does start to become economically feasible. The wing, empennage, landing gear etc all become feasible for an "massive" weight reduction update (which without the fuel load reduction, it wouldn't). Especially if we keep in mind that the A380 was not fully optimized for it's current 800 size. Yes it would still be very costly, but if they can sell 500+ of them that still would make financial sense.

Optimize the MTOW around a reduced 7.600-7.800nm range (range can increase through PIP's again), say somewhere between 500-515T, together with plus style scimitar wing ends and you would be looking at an effective aspect ratio of 9.5 in stead of the current 7.5 (plus=8.4). Still not state of the art by 2025 standards, but the (induced) drag penalty would be marginal enough that it's economy of scale efficiencies would (finally) shine through and it's CASM advantage would be high enough to effectively compete with the smaller twins.


I dont think so.
First of all, the bigger widebody engines are usually 3 shaft so they already have a big chunk of benefit that the GTF has to offer incorporated into the design.

I dont think that a new wing is realistic. The cost would outweigh any fuel efficiency benefit given the small number of airframes to amortise it with.

A new engine is plausible but more so the long expected stretch. A stretch would solve many issues, including cost efficiency and cargo volume. A stretch should be a relatively low cost solution especially certification and development wise. Remember that for every 30 inches they stretch it, they gain not 1 but 2 rows of seats. And there is room for 300 inches, so a good 20 rows...

Obviously EK cant fill an A389 on every route but there are several trunk routes where they can.
 
Amiga500
Posts: 2645
Joined: Tue Mar 03, 2015 8:22 am

Re: Airbus Working With Emirates on New Order for Flagship A380

Mon Nov 20, 2017 10:11 am

Matt6461 wrote:
Seriously stupid if inclusion of -700 in the family partially caused the massive empennage size.


Probably sized for the -800F.

At least, I hope sized for the 800F.
 
Amiga500
Posts: 2645
Joined: Tue Mar 03, 2015 8:22 am

Re: Airbus Working With Emirates on New Order for Flagship A380

Mon Nov 20, 2017 10:19 am

Matt6461 wrote:
Right. So then the benefits of weight reduction are simply linear with weight reduction;


More or less. For equal L/D, reduce weight by 10% means you reduce required lift by 10% means you reduce drag by 10%.
 
Amiga500
Posts: 2645
Joined: Tue Mar 03, 2015 8:22 am

Re: Airbus Working With Emirates on New Order for Flagship A380

Mon Nov 20, 2017 10:22 am

Waterbomber wrote:
I dont think that a new wing is realistic. The cost would outweigh any fuel efficiency benefit given the small number of airframes to amortise it with.

A new engine is plausible but more so the long expected stretch. A stretch would solve many issues, including cost efficiency and cargo volume. A stretch should be a relatively low cost solution especially certification and development wise.


Agree with every word of that.

Although I'm sure folks on here will start a discussion now on yields.

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