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CX747
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777 P2F program has launch customer

Sat Nov 04, 2017 9:19 pm

IAI has a launch customer for the long awaited 777 P2F program. They foresee a large market for the 777 once the used market price decreases. I wonder who the first taker is?

http://m.aviationweek.com/paris-air-sho ... exico-city
Last edited by atcsundevil on Sun Nov 05, 2017 12:59 am, edited 1 time in total.
Reason: Edited title for clarity
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LAX772LR
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Re: 777 P2F program launched

Sat Nov 04, 2017 9:23 pm

CX747 wrote:
long awaited

By who?

Flooring issues aside, a big part of the delay in any such program being launched, was apparent lack of interest.




CX747 wrote:
They foresee a large market

...they do?
Where did they say that?
I myself, suspect a more prosaic motive... ~Thranduil
 
Newbiepilot
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Re: 777 P2F program launched

Sat Nov 04, 2017 9:32 pm

LAX772LR wrote:
CX747 wrote:
long awaited

By who?

Flooring issues aside, a big part of the delay in any such program being launched, was apparent lack of interest.




CX747 wrote:
They foresee a large market

...they do?
Where did they say that?


I could see Atlas, Polar, Kalitta and ATSG/ABX all having interest within the United States. Maybe even FedEx and UPS. The express freight market has really picked up in the last couple of years. 777-200ERs are available for prices similar to 767-300ERs so it makes sense if IAI can do it. They have been trying to work out the engineering for a while. I believe they have had a 777 TLV for years. I wouldn't want to be the first operator of their converted 777.
 
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Re: 777 P2F program launched

Sat Nov 04, 2017 9:42 pm

In fact they just the opposite,that the project is not feasible yet.
 
CX747
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Re: 777 P2F program launched

Sat Nov 04, 2017 9:44 pm

The article actual states IAI sees being able to deliver 777s as a replacement for current 747s and MD-11s once a certain price point is hit.

Atlas, Kalitta, Polar, Amazon and others should be very interested.
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Kviator
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Re: 777 P2F program launched

Sat Nov 04, 2017 9:45 pm

Is this just a P2F Program for the -200/-200ER or will it also include the -300/-300ER as well, just like the Airbus A330 P2F Program includes both the A332 and A333?
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LAX772LR
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Re: 777 P2F program launched

Sat Nov 04, 2017 9:45 pm

Newbiepilot wrote:
I could see Atlas, Polar, Kalitta and ATSG/ABX all having interest within the United States. Maybe even FedEx and UPS. The express freight market has really picked up in the last couple of years. 777-200ERs are available for prices similar to 767-300ERs so it makes sense if IAI can do it. They have been trying to work out the engineering for a while. I believe they have had a 777 TLV for years. I wouldn't want to be the first operator of their converted 777.

CX747 wrote:
Atlas, Kalitta, Polar, Amazon and others should be very interested.


Sure, but that's all just speculation.

The fact remains that they said no such thing about any "large market"... because up until now, and rather consistently, there hasn't been.

Of course, that could change; and maybe someday it will. But it remains to be seen.
Last edited by LAX772LR on Sat Nov 04, 2017 9:46 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: 777 P2F program launched

Sat Nov 04, 2017 9:46 pm

The ex Saudai 772's seem like pretty good candidates for UPS or Fedex
 
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BlueSky1976
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Re: 777 P2F program launched

Sat Nov 04, 2017 11:13 pm

P2F conversion for the 777-300ER is a matter of "when", not "if". As a matter of fact, once launched, it may be more successful than 777-200ER P2F.
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Re: 777 P2F program launched

Sat Nov 04, 2017 11:19 pm

jetwet1 wrote:
The ex Saudai 772's seem like pretty good candidates for UPS or Fedex


Those planes are pretty high cycle. They were doing 1-3 hour hops around the Middle East for much of their lives.
 
CX747
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Re: 777 P2F program launched

Sat Nov 04, 2017 11:56 pm

Ok, somehow, someway this has turned into an arguement. IAI has launched the 777 P2F program with a launch customer. IAI believes they can offer a 777 conversion freighter to replace current 747s and MD-11s once the used 777 airframe price decreases. It is unknown who the launch customer is.
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lightsaber
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Re: 777 P2F program launched

Sun Nov 05, 2017 1:24 am

CX747 wrote:
Ok, somehow, someway this has turned into an arguement. IAI has launched the 777 P2F program with a launch customer. IAI believes they can offer a 777 conversion freighter to replace current 747s and MD-11s once the used 777 airframe price decreases. It is unknown who the launch customer is.

I'm one surprised by this announcement. There is a higher cost converting 777s than prior aircraft due to the floor beams.

There are 744P2Fs sitting in the desert due to lack of large freighter demand not being there. Also recall a P2F is always heavier than a same floor loading factory freighter. This impacts payload at range.

We argue as the 777 is handicapped as a P2F. It will cost more and gain more weight.
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CX747
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Re: 777 P2F program has launch customer

Sun Nov 05, 2017 2:04 am

I'm hoping that one of our resident IAI folks can start taking photos of the birds as they go through conversion. I'd like to learn more about the process. Some of folks here have screamed that a conversion program for the 777 can't be done due to the floor beams. At times it seems to have been chanted like the religous vow! IAI's only issue with the program is the current price for the 777. Once that drops, they are looking at the 777 as a suitable replacement for the large 747/MD-11 freighter market. That in and of itself is a goldmine.
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Re: 777 P2F program launched

Sun Nov 05, 2017 2:12 am

jetwet1 wrote:
The ex Saudai 772's seem like pretty good candidates for UPS or Fedex

Really? I agree they will only really be any use as package freighters where volume is more prized than mass, but SV selling planes to Israel or allowing a deal where their property is transferred to Tel Aviv?

Add into this those 777s have been rode hard and put away wet. They are not ideal candidates.
 
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Re: 777 P2F program has launch customer

Sun Nov 05, 2017 2:22 am

The 777 is maybe not the obvious candidate for P2F conversion as many of us may think. The various pax versions have one thing in common: They all have pretty low max landing weight, max zero fuel weight, and consequently low max structural payload capability. Examples:

777-200LR max structural payload 141klb
777-300ER max structural payload 154klb

The 777F is an entirely different sort of animal with 228.7klb.

Those values of the pax planes make them nowhere near candidates for 744F or MD-11F replacements.

The question is, what does it take to make a pax 777 into something similar to a 777F ?

The 777 is a long distance pax mover which takes advantage of the fact that by far the heaviest load is fuel which is structurally favorably distributed along the wing span where the lift is generated. No heavy load freighter can benefit from that advantage. At first glance the A340 might look as an excellent P2F conversion candidate, but for this very reason it will for ever be a big no-no. The A330 is the only candidate in that family.

If it takes a new wing spar, and maybe beefed up landing gear, to make a pax 777 into a decent freighter, then conversion cost skyrockets.

It will be interesting to learn how they are going to do it, and how close to 777F they can make it. In any case the job to be done is a lot more than a new floor, a wider door and a hundred window plugs.
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Re: 777 P2F program has launch customer

Sun Nov 05, 2017 2:39 am

When the 777X launches, I could see the B77W being a perfect candidate for a freighter conversion. It wouldn't have the range of the purpose-built B777F, but it wouldn't be much shorter and basically it would put the 747F out of business for anyone not needing a front loader. I only see the B77W as a viable candidate though as it shares the technological improvements that the B77L has. That said, it will have to compete with the B789 freighter at that point, with 93 less metric tons of MTOW and similar range profiles.

Curious on the topic of freighters: does Airbus plan to develop a freighter based on the A359ULR?
 
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Re: 777 P2F program has launch customer

Sun Nov 05, 2017 3:37 am

prebennorholm wrote:
The 777 is maybe not the obvious candidate for P2F conversion as many of us may think. The various pax versions have one thing in common: They all have pretty low max landing weight, max zero fuel weight, and consequently low max structural payload capability. Examples:

777-200LR max structural payload 141klb
777-300ER max structural payload 154klb

The 777F is an entirely different sort of animal with 228.7klb.

Those values of the pax planes make them nowhere near candidates for 744F or MD-11F replacements.

The question is, what does it take to make a pax 777 into something similar to a 777F ?

The 777 is a long distance pax mover which takes advantage of the fact that by far the heaviest load is fuel which is structurally favorably distributed along the wing span where the lift is generated. No heavy load freighter can benefit from that advantage. At first glance the A340 might look as an excellent P2F conversion candidate, but for this very reason it will for ever be a big no-no. The A330 is the only candidate in that family.

If it takes a new wing spar, and maybe beefed up landing gear, to make a pax 777 into a decent freighter, then conversion cost skyrockets.

It will be interesting to learn how they are going to do it, and how close to 777F they can make it. In any case the job to be done is a lot more than a new floor, a wider door and a hundred window plugs.


If I remember correctly, most of the P2F conversion involve reinforcing the floor between the cargo hold and the passenger deck so that could be one way to increase the structural payload capacity. As for the rest, looking at Boeing's documentation, wouldn't the 777F just be a HGW version of the 772LR?
 
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Spacepope
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Re: 777 P2F program has launch customer

Sun Nov 05, 2017 3:47 am

I'll believe it when I see it. Months old article with no news, the conversion program so far is just vaporware.
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LAX772LR
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Re: 777 P2F program has launch customer

Sun Nov 05, 2017 6:41 am

aemoreira1981 wrote:
Curious on the topic of freighters: does Airbus plan to develop a freighter based on the A359ULR?

Very doubtful, as the -ULR devotes much of its TOW to tankering fuel...about the last thing airlines would want in a freighter.
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mjoelnir
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Re: 777 P2F program has launch customer

Sun Nov 05, 2017 6:48 am

Did people commenting here read the article posted?

Quote: We have reached an agreement with a launch customer to convert a few Boeing 777-200s. Upon [receiving] IAI’s top management approval, we will kick off the program, and we expect to get the STC in 36 months. Due to the high cost of the 777 feedstock, this project is not feasible yet, but we expect it to reach a price point where we will be able to deliver the 777-200 as a replacement for current 747- and MD-11-based freighters.

Extracts: to convert a few 777-200. When the program is kicked off, 36 month to get a STC. Not feasible yet.

Where does the enthusiastic response of posters come from?
 
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Re: 777 P2F program launched

Sun Nov 05, 2017 8:23 am

Newbiepilot wrote:
jetwet1 wrote:
The ex Saudai 772's seem like pretty good candidates for UPS or Fedex


Those planes are pretty high cycle. They were doing 1-3 hour hops around the Middle East for much of their lives.


Hence the reason for Fedex or UPS picking them up, they will be cheap and they need to be because of the higher conversion costs and as freight dogs flying one or two legs a day say trans Atlantic may be all they are good for.

Channex757 wrote:
jetwet1 wrote:
The ex Saudai 772's seem like pretty good candidates for UPS or Fedex

Really? I agree they will only really be any use as package freighters where volume is more prized than mass, but SV selling planes to Israel or allowing a deal where their property is transferred to Tel Aviv?

Add into this those 777s have been rode hard and put away wet. They are not ideal candidates.


SV sells the aircraft to Fedex or UPS, then Fedex or UPS send them off to IAI, once they sell them they are not Saudi property.
 
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Re: 777 P2F program launched

Sun Nov 05, 2017 9:49 am

BlueSky1976 wrote:
P2F conversion for the 777-300ER is a matter of "when", not "if". As a matter of fact, once launched, it may be more successful than 777-200ER P2F.


Wasn't there some issue with the floorbeam design that made -ER conversions prohibitively expensive?
( resulting in the bespoke 777F )
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Re: 777 P2F program has launch customer

Sun Nov 05, 2017 2:37 pm

mjoelnir wrote:
Did people commenting here read the article posted?

Quote: We have reached an agreement with a launch customer to convert a few Boeing 777-200s. Upon [receiving] IAI’s top management approval, we will kick off the program, and we expect to get the STC in 36 months. Due to the high cost of the 777 feedstock, this project is not feasible yet, but we expect it to reach a price point where we will be able to deliver the 777-200 as a replacement for current 747- and MD-11-based freighters.

Extracts: to convert a few 777-200. When the program is kicked off, 36 month to get a STC. Not feasible yet.

Where does the enthusiastic response of posters come from?


Indeed, I pointed that out in the SV 77 thread too when this thread starter posted the very same article. It's as noncommital as an article can get. There's about as muce sureness in the 777P2F program in there as there is to the also mentioned A32XP2F program, which is basically "it's something we're maybe thing of perhaps in the future sorta".
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CX747
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Re: 777 P2F program has launch customer

Sun Nov 05, 2017 9:54 pm

https://www.flightglobal.com/news/artic ... nv-436572/

1: Agreement has been signed with the first 777P2F customer. Contract for the jets was to be signed mid 2017.

2: IAI has an owned 777 which has had work done to it that will form the basis for the conversion program.

3: First 777P2F will be handed over to the launch customer 36 months after contract is/was signed.
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lightsaber
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Re: 777 P2F program has launch customer

Wed Feb 07, 2018 1:13 pm

Any update? Has a contract been signed?
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amdiesen
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Re: 777 P2F program has launch customer

Mon Feb 12, 2018 1:09 pm

prebennorholm wrote:
The 777 is maybe not the obvious candidate for P2F conversion as many of us may think. The various pax versions have one thing in common: They all have pretty low max landing weight, max zero fuel weight, and consequently low max structural payload capability. Examples:

777-200LR max structural payload 141klb
777-300ER max structural payload 154klb

The 777F is an entirely different sort of animal with 228.7klb.

Those values of the pax planes make them nowhere near candidates for 744F or MD-11F replacements.

The question is, what does it take to make a pax 777 into something similar to a 777F ?

The 777 is a long distance pax mover which takes advantage of the fact that by far the heaviest load is fuel which is structurally favorably distributed along the wing span where the lift is generated. No heavy load freighter can benefit from that advantage. At first glance the A340 might look as an excellent P2F conversion candidate, but for this very reason it will for ever be a big no-no. The A330 is the only candidate in that family.

If it takes a new wing spar, and maybe beefed up landing gear, to make a pax 777 into a decent freighter, then conversion cost skyrockets.

It will be interesting to learn how they are going to do it, and how close to 777F they can make it. In any case the job to be done is a lot more than a new floor, a wider door and a hundred window plugs.



Your point regarding max structural landing weight is important not only for the B777s but also the A330s. This issue has not yet become a common discussion on the board.


Boeing is now quoting the 777 P2F in marketing docs
http://www.boeing.com/resources/boeingd ... 00-bcf.pdf
Last edited by amdiesen on Mon Feb 12, 2018 1:29 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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cougar15
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Re: 777 P2F program has launch customer

Mon Feb 12, 2018 1:27 pm

that is a presentation I first saw in 2015 or 2016 , no disrespect, but nothing new here......!
anything more firm/new on the subject?
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Spacepope
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Re: 777 P2F program has launch customer

Mon Feb 12, 2018 1:58 pm

amdiesen wrote:


Your point regarding max structural landing weight is important not only for the B777s but also the A330s. This issue has not yet become a common discussion on the board.


Boeing is now quoting the 777 P2F in marketing docs
http://www.boeing.com/resources/boeingd ... 00-bcf.pdf

I think the lack of news is telling. We'll probably go another year before we see a 777BDSF roll out, no idea when a BCF might materialize.

As for structural payload, not really an issue as I believe this is intended to be a box hauler (just like the A330P2F), and if one needs payload weight in the mix, you're going to get the factory-built 777F (which is a beast, no doubt, and in an entirely different league than the conversions). Think regional use (AHK, ABX/ATI segments of up to 5 hours) and some transatlantic service, but not hauling packages on 12 hour legs.
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frmrCapCadet
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Re: 777 P2F program has launch customer

Mon Feb 12, 2018 2:44 pm

Q "Where does the enthusiastic response of posters come from?"

A "Due to the high cost of the 777 feedstock"

Used 777s evidently are still highly valued. We all expect the 350/787s to trash the value of old 777s LOL
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amdiesen
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Re: 777 P2F program has launch customer

Wed Apr 04, 2018 2:12 pm

Topical Bloomberg 18April04 article highlights the ongoing theme and may be a response to AB's A330neo freighter activities

Boeing Considers Turning Used 777s Into Cargo Planes

" “They’ve been talking about a -200ER conversion program for over a decade,” said George Dimitroff, head of valuations at Flight Ascend Consultancy. “It’s doable, and there is available and very cheap feedstock out there. The issue is the conversion cost is too high -- we’re talking around $30 million.” For starters, a passenger jet’s composite floor beams would need to be replaced with metal ones. Then there is the delicate surgery of cutting large cargo doors into the side of the fuselage, requiring engineers to reroute critical flight-control cables that are in the way on the 777-200ER.

Another Option

The process would be somewhat simpler on a long-range sibling, the -200LR, which is better prepared for freight conversion from the outset, Dimitroff said. But Boeing has sold far more of the -200ER: 422, compared with 59 for the -200LR. Prices are falling for used 777-200ERs as airlines replace them with the 787 and the Airbus A350, lowering the overall cost of feedstock aircraft and making conversions more economically feasible. The going rate to customers for the converted freighters would be about $60 million, while a new cargo plane costs about $150 million, after customary discounts, Dimitroff estimated."
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... cargo-line

What the article omits is the comparatively substantial performance penalty of the converted frames.

Etihad has initiated available 77L feed-stock
viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1378943

Herr Gerber wants Airbus to build a A359F
viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1387089

Amazon and possibly UPS want AB to build a A33KF
viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1389405

*respects if the mods consider this an independent topic
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Re: 777 P2F program has launch customer

Wed Apr 04, 2018 2:46 pm

amdiesen wrote:
...requiring engineers to reroute critical flight-control cables that are in the way on the 777-200ER.


Is this unique to the 777-200ER or do other P2F aircraft such as the A330 face the same issue?
 
mffoda
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Re: 777 P2F program has launch customer

Wed Apr 04, 2018 4:27 pm

amdiesen

"What the article omits is the comparatively substantial performance penalty of the converted frames."

According to the chart in the article you quoted, there is a 1,200 pound payload difference between the 767F and 767BCF (1% in favor of 767F).
And a range increase of 45 nm (1.5%) for the 767BCF.

That doesn't appear to be a "substantial performance penalty" does it?
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lightsaber
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Re: 777 P2F program has launch customer

Wed Apr 04, 2018 4:51 pm

Any news on the launch customer? Build status? What stock airframe?

I really want to know how resale of the 777 doing? I haven't seen a resale value thread in a while and I suspect the price has dropped quite a bit. Cargo is recovering, Have we hit the 777P2F point truly? I'd like to know.
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amdiesen
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Re: 777 P2F program has launch customer

Wed Apr 04, 2018 5:41 pm

mffoda wrote:
amdiesen

"What the article omits is the comparatively substantial performance penalty of the converted frames."

According to the chart in the article you quoted, there is a 1,200 pound payload difference between the 767F and 767BCF (1% in favor of 767F).
And a range increase of 45 nm (1.5%) for the 767BCF.

That doesn't appear to be a "substantial performance penalty" does it?


Thanks mffoda,
yes, your observation about the limited performance penalty for the 767BCF versus the 767F supports the arguement
The proposed 777 conversion significantly reduces volume and payload. Albeit its a paper airplane, but from memory the performance reductions are in the 1/6th to 1/5th range.

lightsaber wrote:
Any news on the launch customer? Build status? What stock airframe?

I really want to know how resale of the 777 doing? I haven't seen a resale value thread in a while and I suspect the price has dropped quite a bit. Cargo is recovering, Have we hit the 777P2F point truly? I'd like to know.


understood and agreed. Is Boeing reaching out to / responding to the Amazon, UPS, Lufthansa demand? ~75+ of the 110 MDs are operated by volume maximizing airlines. These operators are less sensitive to the proposed payload penalty.

Why would a package freighter buy an 18 year old 777F with used engines and used frame maintenance requirements for 60m for an 18 year expected life? Will AB offer a new volume maximizing 330 freighter with an expected freighter life of 30-36 years for ~110m? Is this the crust of the decision tree?

hypothesis: do you believe the Fedex argument to be the most logical? Fedex has the overwhelming need conundrum with an oversized capital expense requirement.
puzzling over:
1) proper amortization of long-lived assets where costs and revenue are complex, in a technologically evolving environment.
2) the economics of gate real estate

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