Including regaining Hub status

Seeing another Legacy hub would be an increasingly rare event:
1) there's only 4 Legacy carriers left
2) there's only so many cities who have the economics to support it

A LoCo hub is much more likely, albeit still probably rare.

Much more likely to see continual "focus cities" open, where carriers of all types add flights to match O&D and offer cnnx by default. Plenty of cities have the potential to cater to such: AUS, MSY, TPA, etc.

Others (e.g. BNA, LGB, MCO, IND, etc) are already doing just that.

Delta at AUS within the next 5 yrs

SJC

I see Delta or American setting up a hub in Denver in the next 15 or so years! It’s time for a legacy to go head to head with United!

Does SJC really have the room for growth to be a hub city?

AUS would be my pick for DL.

But focus cities will be interesting to watch

rph99 wrote:

I see Delta or American setting up a hub in Denver in the next 15 or so years!

Snowball would have a better chance in hell, than THAT happening.

Especially for DL, with a major hub only 300ish miles away.

None.

Your primary airlines in the U.S. have done a wonderful job of entrenching themselves in key airports just enough so a viable hub operation can not be launched on a competitive scale. Any new hub would have to be a brand new terminal development, and the top brass at the current carriers are smart enough to know the likelihood of that happening anytime soon is pretty much zilch.

RDU and PDX becoming a full hub.

FoxtrotSierra wrote:

Delta at AUS within the next 5 yrs

A mechanic from NAAS (DL AUS contract maintenance) Friday told one of our Air Ops officers that DL is offering to hire them all as full time line mechanics. He has been told that between now and February AUS is getting:

***a new Delta line maintenance store - 24 Hr operation (Located In the grass area behind current RON hard stand lot)
***a new Delta storage division, line maintenance only
***40 full time Delta new hire mechanics

DL Maintenance stores tend to be large $$$ commitments. But there happens to be a rather large gap in the Southwest/Texas region regarding a DL maintenance store & line mechanics to staff it.

http://www.deltatechops.com/mro-capabil ... ce-locator

Not even RDU has a DL maintenance store and they have at least 71 daily departures (feb 2017). AUS is Geographically primed to replace the DFW MicroHub/AFP which was lost 13 years ago, subsequently stranding approx 2000 domiciled flight crew. Ironically, None of these growth changes speaks to how DL will further expand in AUS once the other 20-40 gates come on board in the next 36 months.

(AUS 2018/2019 Nine Gate expansion update is that DL has acquired 7-9 of the those 9 gates. The Sky Lounge will also be located in that new wing. WN recently requested 2-3 of the new gates from ABIA authorities and was told no, because the gates are largely accounted for by DL already. However, It’s easy to imagine that WN will get their own concourse in the Phase 2 double concourse expansion to the west, which breaks ground immediately after the 9 gates are completed)

There is no need for new hubs. You will see new or reinforced focus cities but no new hubs.

It may be time to retire the word "Hub" as a metaphor describing certain airports. The original Frontier had the model of slightly up scale and connecting much of the west and east coasts via a Denver Hub. By the book it should have been a smashing success, and was briefly seen as succeeding - but a spectacular failure. Seattle thought it could be the Gateway to the Orient, and for a while it was, but later planes, particularly the 330s, smashed those dreams. Oddly, Delta has resurrected that dream. And I think the metaphor, Gateway, may be more accurately descriptive than "Hub" for Seattle.

Perhaps in the Tech forum it would be useful to start a thread on how best to describe airline operations in small, medium, and large population centers, and how passengers use them. How it changes as plane capabilities change, population density, percentages of O and D, versus transfers. Et Cetera.

reggiet wrote:

Not even RDU has a DL maintenance store and they have at least 71 daily departures (feb 2017). AUS is Geographically primed to replace the DFW MicroHub/AFP which was lost 13 years ago, subsequently stranding approx 2000 domiciled flight crew. Ironically, None of these growth changes speaks to how DL will further expand in AUS once the other 20-40 gates come on board in the next 36 months.

AUS is also a lot more isolated from other large maintenance stations than RDU, so I’m not sure how much we can or should read into the store. Driving parts from ATL (or CVG or JFK) to RDU is doable in a day. Not so at AUS.

Overthecascades wrote:

Including regaining Hub status

I would watch new focus cities, because there are very few airports with the gate space to support a new hub(amongst many other reasons) .

You will likely see airlines like G4, J1, SY, WN, AS or B6, and DL opening up more “focus cities” in the next 5 years....

SY and G4 are the most likely

United does not have that Southeast hub - Nashville, Memphis, Orlando - all tourist cities. Alaska should have some additional Hubs. They have nothing in the east or Midwest. They did not gained much by taking on Virgin America.

I would argue FLL is a hub already for JetBlue, but I see them continuing to expand, especially if they decide to purchase a wide body airplane some day.

Just a matter of time until MCO gets RJ p2p to connect people to the UK via VS and AMS via DL, MCO AUS already a focus city for DL basically and I predict it strengthening by 2020.

What people are overlooking is the possibility of IND becoming a focus city for WN too.

reggiet wrote:

FoxtrotSierra wrote:

Delta at AUS within the next 5 yrs

A mechanic from NAAS (DL AUS contract maintenance) Friday told one of our Air Ops officers that DL is offering to hire them all as full time line mechanics. He has been told that between now and February AUS is getting:

***a new Delta line maintenance store - 24 Hr operation (Located In the grass area behind current RON hard stand lot)
***a new Delta storage division, line maintenance only
***40 full time Delta new hire mechanics

DL Maintenance stores tend to be large $$$ commitments. But there happens to be a rather large gap in the Southwest/Texas region regarding a DL maintenance store & line mechanics to staff it.

http://www.deltatechops.com/mro-capabil ... ce-locator

Not even RDU has a DL maintenance store and they have at least 71 daily departures (feb 2017). AUS is Geographically primed to replace the DFW MicroHub/AFP which was lost 13 years ago, subsequently stranding approx 2000 domiciled flight crew. Ironically, None of these growth changes speaks to how DL will further expand in AUS once the other 20-40 gates come on board in the next 36 months.

(AUS 2018/2019 Nine Gate expansion update is that DL has acquired 7-9 of the those 9 gates. The Sky Lounge will also be located in that new wing. WN recently requested 2-3 of the new gates from ABIA authorities and was told no, because the gates are largely accounted for by DL already. However, It’s easy to imagine that WN will get their own concourse in the Phase 2 double concourse expansion to the west, which breaks ground immediately after the 9 gates are completed)

It's just my opinion, and keep that in mind, but if you look at the flight schedules loaded for AUS next spring/summer for 2018, you'll see that the mix of 717/A32X and regional jets is completely redone and all aircraft operating through AUS will apparently be a A32X family. This is a strategic maneuver by DL to lower costs and improve crew utilization, but should they open a maintenance facility it will likely be an Airbus A32X family facility having only parts for those aircraft. Whether it will be a heavy maintenance facility remains to be seen, however, in the interim, it's likely that it would be RON maintenance operation.

It would not surprise me at all if AUS airport pitched this to DL and offered a super low price to build and operate this here, they have plenty of space to expand and build to suit.

I could see(hope) DL make MCO a Latin/South America hub once the new terminal is complete.

LAX772LR wrote:

rph99 wrote:

I see Delta or American setting up a hub in Denver in the next 15 or so years!

Snowball would have a better chance in hell, than THAT happening.

Especially for DL, with a major hub only 300ish miles away.

I agree. I don't see any good reason for DL or AA to develop a hub at DEN. They may (or may not) build up their operations between their existing hubs and DEN (i.e. increasing frequency and/or seats), but that's about it.

I honestly don't see any reason why one of the big three would open another hub. Going forward, I think you'll see them focusing more on development and strengthening of their existing hubs.

Beatyair wrote:

United does not have that Southeast hub - Nashville, Memphis, Orlando - all tourist cities. Alaska should have some additional Hubs. They have nothing in the east or Midwest. They did not gained much by taking on Virgin America.

Memphis will never be a full fledged hub unless a start up come along or FedEx somehow decided it needed to be in the passenger business. 99.9% chance that will not happen. Memphis can become a small focus city as the O&D market grows. That airline would likely get the southwest hall of B concourse after underwent a remodel like the rest of B. Memphis is making some rather expensive changes to C just to mothball it in 2 years just so they an move Delta over with Southwest while B undergoes the knife.

I'd love to see Southwest grow enough to add STL, MSY, DEN, FLL and then later on a direct to the west coast or two. They would occupy the "Southwest" spoke of B concourse with Norwegian or WOW and international charters down on the end at the international gate.

Cubsrule wrote:

reggiet wrote:

Not even RDU has a DL maintenance store and they have at least 71 daily departures (feb 2017). AUS is Geographically primed to replace the DFW MicroHub/AFP which was lost 13 years ago, subsequently stranding approx 2000 domiciled flight crew. Ironically, None of these growth changes speaks to how DL will further expand in AUS once the other 20-40 gates come on board in the next 36 months.

AUS is also a lot more isolated from other large maintenance stations than RDU, so I’m not sure how much we can or should read into the store. Driving parts from ATL (or CVG or JFK) to RDU is doable in a day. Not so at AUS.

Excellent point

mcogator wrote:

I could see(hope) DL make MCO a Latin/South America hub once the new terminal is complete.

DL and friends could virtually have Airside 4 to themselves with the exclusion of BA and LH, DL could easily take over 70’s and 90’s while keeping the 80’s for overflow and international.

XNA for American Eagle

In all seriousness - our little airport has nonstop service to LAX, DFW, ORD, CLT, DCA, and LGA with Eagle. I know they're operated by different carriers, but that's still impressive. Focus city status would be something.

flymco753 wrote:

What people are overlooking is the possibility of IND becoming a focus city for WN too.

Depends on what you consider a focus city for WN. WN has been showing lots of LUV for IND lately, with a new destinations added in each of the last 3 extensions(CUN, AUS, OAK), and expressed interest in future additions(BNA)! WN has also increased flights by 70% since 2014. Checking out the summer schedule, WN even has a few mini-banks at IND. Obviously a focus city wouldn’t be too large with MDW, STL, and even BNA pretty close, but it certainly isn’t out of the question.

We will see what G4 does with its focus city in IND, and whether DL adds anything to its focus city-like operation at IND...

NZ321 wrote:

Does SJC really have the room for growth to be a hub city?

Yes, but the build out of terminal B would be needed. In the plan, the current portion of terminal B is called the "North Concourse". The "south concourse" would be built when the passenger demand triggered it. It would double the size of the terminal, another ten gates. But that would take years, is very expensive, and I would be surprised if the airport would commit to building it on the promise of an airline saying they intended to create a hub.

DL: RDU, LAS, PDX, AUS

kann123air wrote:

XNA for American Eagle

In all seriousness - our little airport has nonstop service to LAX, DFW, ORD, CLT, DCA, and LGA with Eagle. I know they're operated by different carriers, but that's still impressive. Focus city status would be something.

Yes, for XNA, that is pretty impressive!

But all of those airports are hubs for AA, so pretty much defeats the purpose...

gwrudolph wrote:

LAX772LR wrote:

rph99 wrote:

I see Delta or American setting up a hub in Denver in the next 15 or so years!

Snowball would have a better chance in hell, than THAT happening.

Especially for DL, with a major hub only 300ish miles away.

I agree. I don't see any good reason for DL or AA to develop a hub at DEN. They may (or may not) build up their operations between their existing hubs and DEN (i.e. increasing frequency and/or seats), but that's about it.

I honestly don't see any reason why one of the big three would open another hub. Going forward, I think you'll see them focusing more on development and strengthening of their existing hubs.

Right. Since they currently have hubs in SLC and PHX, why create one in Denver?

Midwestindy wrote:

Overthecascades wrote:

Including regaining Hub status

I would watch new focus cities, because there are very few airports with the gate space to support a new hub(amongst many other reasons) .

You will likely see airlines like G4, J1, SY, WN, AS or B6, and DL opening up more “focus cities” in the next 5 years....

SY and G4 are the most likely

A true hub is expensive and needs a lot of room.... say a minimum of 20 or 30 gates to be used in several banks / day, runways, etc. How many airports have that available? Who will pay for it, the airports? Not after experiences in cities that have lost hubs. Over the years, the legacies have reduced the number of hubs, not added them. CVG, PIT, CLE, MEM, UA in Denver prior to the CO merger, etc.

As for DL in SEA....DL had a hub in Tokyo that they shifted to SEA. So the flights from NRT to Asian cities were replaced by those from SEA to Asian cities.

gwrudolph wrote:

LAX772LR wrote:

rph99 wrote:

I see Delta or American setting up a hub in Denver in the next 15 or so years!

Snowball would have a better chance in hell, than THAT happening.

Especially for DL, with a major hub only 300ish miles away.

I agree. I don't see any good reason for DL or AA to develop a hub at DEN. They may (or may not) build up their operations between their existing hubs and DEN (i.e. increasing frequency and/or seats), but that's about it.

I honestly don't see any reason why one of the big three would open another hub. Going forward, I think you'll see them focusing more on development and strengthening of their existing hubs.

Right. Since they currently have hubs in SLC and PHX, why create one in Denver?

Midwestindy wrote:

Overthecascades wrote:

Including regaining Hub status

I would watch new focus cities, because there are very few airports with the gate space to support a new hub(amongst many other reasons) .

You will likely see airlines like G4, J1, SY, WN, AS or B6, and DL opening up more “focus cities” in the next 5 years....

SY and G4 are the most likely

A true hub is expensive and needs a lot of room.... say a minimum of 20 or 30 gates to be used in several banks / day, runways, etc. How many airports have that available? Who will pay for it, the airports? Not after experiences in cities that have lost hubs. Over the years, the legacies have reduced the number of hubs, not added them. CVG, PIT, CLE, MEM, UA in Denver prior to the CO merger, etc.

As for DL in SEA....DL had a hub in Tokyo that they shifted to SEA. So the flights from NRT to Asian cities were replaced by those from SEA to Asian cities.

goldorak wrote:

There is no need for new hubs. You will see new or reinforced focus cities but no new hubs.

Agreed .. is another hub needed? How many hubs have been opened and closed either because of finances or they didn't serve they need they were intended to serve?

The only thing that might change it - Amazon HQ2. Depending on where that ends up - that city could end up with beefed-up air services.

flymco753 wrote:

mcogator wrote:

I could see(hope) DL make MCO a Latin/South America hub once the new terminal is complete.

DL and friends could virtually have Airside 4 to themselves with the exclusion of BA and LH, DL could easily take over 70’s and 90’s while keeping the 80’s for overflow and international.

Yup, move out the others to the new terminal, make Airside 4 the DL, VS, and AM haven.

kann123air wrote:

XNA for American Eagle

In all seriousness - our little airport has nonstop service to LAX, DFW, ORD, CLT, DCA, and LGA with Eagle. I know they're operated by different carriers, but that's still impressive. Focus city status would be something.

It's also predominantly Monday-Friday due to Walmart business, and 99% regional aircraft. But you do have most of the hubs covered, just nothing else.

I could see AS and B6 opening up hubs at MKE and LAS. Also what about WN setting up a massive inter-Island operation out of HNL to take out HA? Now that would be something.

mcogator wrote:

flymco753 wrote:

mcogator wrote:

I could see(hope) DL make MCO a Latin/South America hub once the new terminal is complete.

DL and friends could virtually have Airside 4 to themselves with the exclusion of BA and LH, DL could easily take over 70’s and 90’s while keeping the 80’s for overflow and international.

Yup, move out the others to the new terminal, make Airside 4 the DL, VS, and AM haven.

They;ll have WS too, it'd be nice to see them all move in together.

If the new terminal at MCI gets built I think a strong focus city could happen IF the population growth rate stays the way it is or gets better. Lots of Illinoisans moving to neighboring states so we'll see

AUS, RDU, MCI

rph99 wrote:

I see Delta or American setting up a hub in Denver in the next 15 or so years! It’s time for a legacy to go head to head with United!

Yeah, Delta isn't the kind of airline to abandon a highly profitable 30 year fortress hub 300 miles away.

cschleic wrote:

midwestindy wrote:

I would watch new focus cities, because there are very few airports with the gate space to support a new hub(amongst many other reasons) .

You will likely see airlines like G4, J1, SY, WN, AS or B6, and DL opening up more “focus cities” in the next 5 years....

SY and G4 are the most likely

A true hub is expensive and needs a lot of room.... say a minimum of 20 or 30 gates to be used in several banks / day, runways, etc. How many airports have that available? Who will pay for it, the airports? Not after experiences in cities that have lost hubs. Over the years, the legacies have reduced the number of hubs, not added them. CVG, PIT, CLE, MEM, UA in Denver prior to the CO merger, etc.

My point exactly, that is why I said focus cities are more likely

mcogator wrote:

I could see(hope) DL make MCO a Latin/South America hub once the new terminal is complete.

If DL didn't have its love affair with ATL I could see that happening....

The US Airlines have spent years merging and dismantling hubs, plus downsizing US Domestic capacity, not sure why they'd be in the mood to now add back in the huge fixed costs of a hub now. Maybe, maybe Jet Blue or Alaska will want something more in the interior of the country, but I wouldn't hold my breath--- so much hub capacity has been abandoned but they haven't shown any interest in seizing it. The really plum hubs are taken--- those cities with lots of O&D. Agree focus city, maybe, but that is an entirely different animal than say a 200 flight or more hub.

Wonder what's more likely, a new hub being added, or yet another current hub being dismantled?

Over the next 20-30 years the US population is projected to grow to nearly 400,000,000. People are getting wealthier, air travel more affordable, with the air travel market growing along with the population. Seems a bit naive to suggest there won't never ever ever be any more hubs beyond those that exist currently.

flyguy89 wrote:

Over the next 20-30 years the US population is projected to grow to nearly 400,000,000. People are getting wealthier, air travel more affordable, with the air travel market growing along with the population. Seems a bit naive to suggest there won't never ever ever be any more hubs beyond those that exist currently.

Who's getting wealthy? Wages aren't growing and haven't grown for years, hence why everyone who complaints about airlines such as Spirit still flies them -- it's in their budget.

If Delta, United, or American wanted another hub - they'd add one. And unless you're Delta, United, American, or Southwest, no public entity is going to go out and spend the money to build facilities of scale to be an effective air traffic because "New Airline X" doesn't have the credit or proven business model. The current and future structure is built. This is what you have.

flyguy89 wrote:

Over the next 20-30 years the US population is projected to grow to nearly 400,000,000. People are getting wealthier, air travel more affordable, with the air travel market growing along with the population. Seems a bit naive to suggest there won't never ever ever be any more hubs beyond those that exist currently.

If/when that happens, you'd see increased frequencies to/from the existing hubs to those population growth areas. You might also see hub growth, especially in those smaller hubs where the metro area population is growing rapidly (PHX, SLC, IAD, SEA, DEN).

While the creation of hubs are rare, I do consider myself a believer in the conspiracy theory that we will see a new hub/focus city in the next 6-8 years.

Heres a couple possibilities:
UA could find a second focus city somewhere

DL built up at RDU. Also I know AUS has been mentioned, which would make sense considering most airlines have a hub or focus city in Texas(even AS has a focus city in TX). DL certainly could do better in TX.

allegiantflyer wrote:

Also I know AUS has been mentioned, which would make sense considering most airlines have a hub or focus city in Texas(even AS has a focus city in TX). DL certainly could do better in TX.

There was some (online) talk (rumors) about a tripling of departures (25 to 70ish) within the next 24 months timed with the completion of terminal expansion. The question is what would a AUS focus city for DL look like? Certainly the return of CVG and IND (former NW) service for starters. I'd imagine they'd play conservative on Dallas and Houston.

Here's what I'm thinking:
Existing Service: LAX, SEA, SLC, MSP, DTW, RDU, ATL, BOS, JFK

Mainline (assuming no CSeries in time): DFW/DAL, IAH/HOU, LAS, ORD, AMS
Regional (OO/9E): BDL, BNA, CMH, CVG, IND, MCI, MCO, MSY, PDX, OKC, SAN, TUL

It should be worth mentioning SAT in this scenario as well. AUS is a little more than an hour's drive which people may put up with to snag a nonstop flight. It could also allow for more synergy in a crew co-domicile - especially if/when the CSeries arrives.

Someone should try to use the special customs exemptions at ANC to make an actual US transit hub.

LAX772LR wrote:

rph99 wrote:

I see Delta or American setting up a hub in Denver in the next 15 or so years!

Snowball would have a better chance in hell, than THAT happening.

Especially for DL, with a major hub only 300ish miles away.

How about AS?...too many eggs in SEA basket, I feel.


What B6 did in BOS...why not for some other places?

727LOVER wrote:

LAX772LR wrote:

rph99 wrote:

I see Delta or American setting up a hub in Denver in the next 15 or so years!

Snowball would have a better chance in hell, than THAT happening.

Especially for DL, with a major hub only 300ish miles away.

How about AS?...too many eggs in SEA basket, I feel.


What B6 did in BOS...why not for some other places?

DEN is a great location for a hub, but it has an enormous amount of competition with WN, UA, and F9 all having full-fledged hubs there. I just don't see why any airline would go out of their way to try and add a hub there.

Here are the most likely scenarios IMO:
DL turning RDU into a hub
AS/B6 creating a middle of the country hub
SY creating another hub
WN creating more focus city/hubs (especially for HI flying)
G4 setting up hubs in PIE/SFB (yes I understand that G4 has said they don't want to connect pax, but they may change strategy once they open up int'l flights)