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Midwestindy
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Re: Should AS look at at East Coast hub

Tue Nov 07, 2017 4:06 pm

izbtmnhd wrote:
usxguy wrote:
The last airline to try a "true" hub/spoke where Alaska might have a fighting chance would be MCI. Vanguard, in its last days, shifted from a lot of point-to-point, and from what execs said, MCI was doing really well. They just had a lot of baggage with the changes and it wasn't enough for them to survive.

MCI could do some good East-West flying and connect some points using Alaska's distribution; the core markets SEA/SFO/LAX/SAN/PHX/SJC/PDX flow into MCI then branch out to ORD/MSP/DTW/DCA/LGA/BOS/FLL/MCO. Could then throw in secondary markets like SLC/BOI/TUS/PSP on the west and add ATL/BWI/JFK/ATL to the east. Just gotta make this a banked effort with 2-3 flights a day in each. Focus on markets already served by AS/VX,


It's an interesting idea, I just don't like your city pairs. IAD/BWI-MCI with up to six flights a day? Even with a connection hub that's way to much capacity on top of existing service. I think the Midwest markets you ignored like IND/MKE/CVG/CLE/PIT would make more sense than oversaturating NYC, WAS and Florida.


PIT/CLE/CVG/MKE has the potential gate space, IND does not for such an operation....
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flybynight
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Re: Should AS look at at East Coast hub

Tue Nov 07, 2017 4:18 pm

Midwestindy wrote:
raylee67 wrote:
Alaska can focus all the resources on West Coast and make it a fortress.


They are already doing that

raylee67 wrote:
It does not have enough resources to compete with US3 nationwide. With only West Coast to worry about, it can fight effectively against US3 in its home turf.

By virtue of securing the west, AS will have to expand out east

raylee67 wrote:
West Coast itself as a market is large enough for Alaska to be rich.


That is a pretty bold statement unless you can predict the future, always best not to put all your eggs in one basket....


And Southwest isn't exactly going to roll over and play dead.
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BigGSFO
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Re: Should AS look at at East Coast hub

Tue Nov 07, 2017 4:26 pm

AS seems committed to the west coast and making that their primary market. Any city on the eastern seaboard doesn't make sense to me. The Alaska brand probably wouldn't translate well to a metro area outside the west. If anything, I can see them try to make a go (again) at SLC.

AS knows their markets and knows their strengths.
 
Flighty
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Re: Should AS look at at East Coast hub

Tue Nov 07, 2017 4:36 pm

I would love to see AS open an RDU hub with 250 flights and mess up Delta's yields, ultimately acquiring Delta. :)
 
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Midwestindy
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Re: Should AS look at at East Coast hub

Tue Nov 07, 2017 4:37 pm

BigGSFO wrote:
The Alaska brand probably wouldn't translate well to a metro area outside the west.


How do you know that? New carriers come to new metros all the time....
ORD & IND

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phluser
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Re: Should AS look at at East Coast hub

Tue Nov 07, 2017 4:53 pm

Midwestindy wrote:
raylee67 wrote:
Alaska can focus all the resources on West Coast and make it a fortress.


They are already doing that

raylee67 wrote:
It does not have enough resources to compete with US3 nationwide. With only West Coast to worry about, it can fight effectively against US3 in its home turf.

By virtue of securing the west, AS will have to expand out east

raylee67 wrote:
West Coast itself as a market is large enough for Alaska to be rich.


That is a pretty bold statement unless you can predict the future, always best not to put all your eggs in one basket....


One basket would be SEA. By acquiring Virgin, it essentially was seeking greater presence in California. Granted it's also the West Coast, but that is diversification. I'd hope over time, AS does cover routes like LAX-PIT and SEA-PIT, then with SAN, etc. and similarly with other long haul routes to other eastern US markets like CLE, rather than just serving up different variations of LAX-SFO through alternate airports (intra California routes), to just be an alternative to Southwest.
 
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flymco753
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Re: Should AS look at at East Coast hub

Tue Nov 07, 2017 4:54 pm

Geographically, the next best place for AS to go will be MSP, they already have a decent customer base and pretty decent operation, the question though is going to be, who is going to lose gates in order to make this happen?
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TWFlyGuy
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Re: Should AS look at at East Coast hub

Tue Nov 07, 2017 5:02 pm

enilria wrote:
flybynight wrote:
For Alaska to continue to grow I keep wondering if a stronger East Coast presence is needed. Can that even happen today. But then again why not. Delta certainly came into Seattle and setup a hub.

Maybe Boston would be a good choice since it isn't a strong hub city.

This might be more than AS can bite off, but it is an interesting idea.

I don't think organically it is really possible. The sad reality is that we are all basically waiting till B6 and AS merge and then they become a national player. Sadly I don't want fewer airlines so I'm not rooting for that outcome, but it will happen eventually. Hopefully only after more airlines have joined the industry.

RDU/MKE/MCI/PIT are probably the best options for a hub that won't face dramatic retaliation. OTOH, the most recent hubs to sprout ([email protected], [email protected], [email protected]) have been in other carriers' existing hubs, which would change things. In that case ATL or DTW or MSP would be logical given the AS beef with DL. I don't think it would make as much sense to attack an AA or UA hub.


I would throw STL on your list with the amount of empty space they have. They would have to find a way to lower CPE some I'm sure but I think something in the Midwest is a great next step.
 
hiflyeras
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Re: Should AS look at at East Coast hub

Tue Nov 07, 2017 5:11 pm

AS has their hands full in SEA, SFO and LAX...there's no way they'd branch out to a east coast hub unless it was through merger/acquisition. Like Enrilia said, organic growth of that scale would be impossible. I think they're satisfied with being number one or two out of SEA, PDX, ANC, top two or three out of SFO, SAN, SJC and having a substantial presence out of LAX. In itself that's huge...no airline on the east coast really has that kind of presence out of six or seven cities.
 
Varsity1
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Re: Should AS look at at East Coast hub

Tue Nov 07, 2017 5:47 pm

Ordering 100 737Max10's would be a good start.
 
Indy
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Re: Should AS look at at East Coast hub

Tue Nov 07, 2017 5:59 pm

Midwestindy wrote:
PIT/CLE/CVG/MKE has the potential gate space, IND does not for such an operation....


Not unless IND proceeds with the 2020 model which is to extend each concourse by 10 gates. If IND had an opportunity to become an AS hub I think they'd jump all over that. There is also space available for detached terminal with a 40 to 60 gate capacity. But that would require an investment of probably $300+ million and I doubt any airline is starting a hub anywhere in the U.S. justifying 40 to 60 additional gates.
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usxguy
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Re: Should AS look at at East Coast hub

Tue Nov 07, 2017 8:21 pm

izbtmnhd wrote:

It's an interesting idea, I just don't like your city pairs. IAD/BWI-MCI with up to six flights a day? Even with a connection hub that's way to much capacity on top of existing service. Plus most of the markets you want to serve through MCI already have non-stop flights on AS to SEA at a minimum. I think the Midwest markets you ignored like IND/MKE/CVG/CLE/PIT would make more sense than oversaturating NYC, WAS and Florida.


Was more ore less thinking of connecting major markets with other major markets, with some secondary (yet still prime) links in there. Follow the traffic. Society has already said they'll accept a stop, or in Southwest's case, a FEW stops, for good service and good fares. But yeah, 3 IAD-MCI may be overkill. BWI could probably handle is, as could DCA, especially if you are still connecting the major markets.

that's one thing VX did well with DAL, was flowing aircraft east-west - even today SFO/DCA nonstop on VX is augmented with a direct via DAL.
xx
 
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dabpit
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Re: Should AS look at at East Coast hub

Tue Nov 07, 2017 9:08 pm

Just throwing this out there but their East Coast Hub/Focus City will be wherever Amazon puts their HQ2 :)
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rta
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Re: Should AS look at at East Coast hub

Tue Nov 07, 2017 9:19 pm

I'd love for BNA to be hubbed by AS (or UA) but the barriers to entry would be pretty high.
 
Chugach
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Re: Should AS look at at East Coast hub

Tue Nov 07, 2017 9:50 pm

The day AS has a hub back east is the day the merger with B6 goes final.

Absent that, it ain’t happening.
 
maxbaby01
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Re: Should AS look at at East Coast hub

Tue Nov 07, 2017 10:00 pm

flymco753 wrote:
Geographically, the next best place for AS to go will be MSP, they already have a decent customer base and pretty decent operation, the question though is going to be, who is going to lose gates in order to make this happen?

The expansion of Terminal 2 could more than handle it. Plans are in place. No airlines need to lose any gates.
 
routeplanner
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Re: Should AS look at at East Coast hub

Tue Nov 07, 2017 11:43 pm

Im curious as to why it is so popular on this forum that AS have an East Coast hub?
 
routeplanner
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Re: Should AS look at at East Coast hub

Tue Nov 07, 2017 11:44 pm

Im curious as to why it is so popular on this forum that AS have an East Coast hub?
 
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william
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Re: Should AS look at at East Coast hub

Wed Nov 08, 2017 12:34 am

Since we are spending AS money like it grows on trees might as well look at STL, PIT and CVG, airports with plenty of empty gates.
 
michman
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Re: Should AS look at at East Coast hub

Wed Nov 08, 2017 12:35 am

Midwestindy wrote:
BigGSFO wrote:
The Alaska brand probably wouldn't translate well to a metro area outside the west.


How do you know that? New carriers come to new metros all the time....


Well, America West attempted the hub in CMH. It didn't work out as I recall. There's a difference between coming to a new metro and trying to establish a full-fledged hub there.
 
rajincajun01
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Re: Should AS look at at East Coast hub

Wed Nov 08, 2017 1:28 am

routeplanner wrote:
Im curious as to why it is so popular on this forum that AS have an East Coast hub?


It’s a forum. That’s what you do on forums. You don’t have to click on the topic if you don’t want to read it.
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osupoke07
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Re: Should AS look at at East Coast hub

Wed Nov 08, 2017 1:31 am

phluser wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:
raylee67 wrote:
By acquiring Virgin, it essentially was seeking greater presence in California.


Maybe more importantly was preventing JetBlue from becoming a national airline. I don't see how Alaska survives more than 10 years in that scenario without being absorbed by someone.
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Midwestindy
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Re: Should AS look at at East Coast hub

Wed Nov 08, 2017 1:48 am

michman wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:
BigGSFO wrote:
The Alaska brand probably wouldn't translate well to a metro area outside the west.


How do you know that? New carriers come to new metros all the time....


Well, America West attempted the hub in CMH. It didn't work out as I recall. There's a difference between coming to a new metro and trying to establish a full-fledged hub there.


I am very well aware of that, the post I quoted said nothing about a hub, it only mentioned the brand itself....
ORD & IND

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intotheair
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Re: Should AS look at at East Coast hub

Wed Nov 08, 2017 1:49 am

routeplanner wrote:
Im curious as to why it is so popular on this forum that AS have an East Coast hub?


Because all those decaying steel towns need hub status again, that's why.
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CHI2DFW
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Re: Should AS look at at East Coast hub

Wed Nov 08, 2017 2:37 am

AS was doing well, then acquired VS. let’s see how the integration goes before adding an East of Denver hub.
 
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EA CO AS
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Re: Should AS look at at East Coast hub

Wed Nov 08, 2017 4:33 am

CHI2DFW wrote:
AS was doing well, then acquired VS. let’s see how the integration goes before adding an East of Denver hub.


AS is still doing well, just not as well as before.

And they acquired VX, not VS.
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dolphinflyer
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Re: Should AS look at at East Coast hub

Thu Nov 09, 2017 4:11 am

flymco753 wrote:
Geographically, the next best place for AS to go will be MSP, they already have a decent customer base and pretty decent operation, the question though is going to be, who is going to lose gates in order to make this happen?


Agreed. AS could cash-out their DAL gate holdings, transfer to DCA & LGA slots to fly MSP-DCA and MSP-LGA, add nonstops to BOS, ANC and other East Coast markets. MSP would be a better cultural fit as a hub for AS as well. True - the lack of available gates at MSP is a key deterrent to this happening anytime soon.
 
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Re: Should AS look at at East Coast hub

Thu Nov 09, 2017 1:45 pm

routeplanner wrote:
Im curious as to why it is so popular on this forum that AS have an East Coast hub?


Because like most of the general public many here are desperate to have another realistic option to the big three which continue to devolve. Most people can pretty plainly see that the key to improving our airlines long term is competition, not monopolies.
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axiom
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Re: Should AS look at at East Coast hub

Thu Nov 09, 2017 2:42 pm

routeplanner wrote:
Im curious as to why it is so popular on this forum that AS have an East Coast hub?


The reason same people like to measure the size of their... assets. Financial assets, of course.
 
flyingcat
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Re: Should AS look at at East Coast hub

Thu Nov 09, 2017 3:14 pm

jumbojet wrote:
With JetBlue supposedly starting TATL service from the east coast soon, and if AS should ever start TPAC from the west coast, a merger between the two would truly create a powerhouse of an airline.


It would be a blockbuster to see such a combo, with huge transatlantic and transpacific potential.

Exactly the kind of competition the market needs to keep the network carriers honest.
 
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enilria
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Re: Should AS look at at East Coast hub

Thu Nov 09, 2017 3:28 pm

dolphinflyer wrote:
flymco753 wrote:
Geographically, the next best place for AS to go will be MSP, they already have a decent customer base and pretty decent operation, the question though is going to be, who is going to lose gates in order to make this happen?


Agreed. AS could cash-out their DAL gate holdings, transfer to DCA & LGA slots to fly MSP-DCA and MSP-LGA, add nonstops to BOS, ANC and other East Coast markets. MSP would be a better cultural fit as a hub for AS as well. True - the lack of available gates at MSP is a key deterrent to this happening anytime soon.

I have proposed that before. MSP was rumored around the industry as well. DTW also makes sense for the same reasons as MSP is not an East hub. I think history is showing that sharing a developed hub makes more sense than taking over somewhere like CVG for yourself that already failed as a hub. DEN/SEA and now BOS apparently are all examples of single carrier hubs morphing into 2 carrier. As I said earlier, it makes no sense for AS to attack a AA/UA hub and get UA/AA retaliating against them. Things are already at a low point with DL, leaving DL little more they can throw at them.

The VP of route planning at AS is a US/FL guy. So that will color any decisions. That helps make the case for East Coast, though. Maybe even ATL, but I think unless WN rapidly downsizes ATL, it is off the table for a lot of reasons. PHL because of the US/FL ties? But I think the reaction from AA kills that.

Having said all of that, I think a merger with B6 is the more likely outcome as much as I hate the idea.
 
rajincajun01
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Re: Should AS look at an East Coast hub

Thu Nov 09, 2017 4:24 pm

Just for giggles, why not a TPA focus city to connect to the Caribbean while adding service from some Midwest and East Coast cities? Low costs, high O&D. Plus Chester would look good with a tan.
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flybynight
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Re: Should AS look at an East Coast hub

Thu Nov 09, 2017 5:06 pm

Looking back at the responses, I think a focus city might be a better idea should AS decide to tackle the East Coast.

Would Cleveland be a possibility? I think it used to be a hub for CO back in the day. Close enough to the East Coast where all their planes could comfortably fly around (Cleveland - Syracuse perhaps on a Q400!!!).
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flymco753
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Re: Should AS look at an East Coast hub

Thu Nov 09, 2017 5:08 pm

flybynight wrote:
Looking back at the responses, I think a focus city might be a better idea should AS decide to tackle the East Coast.

Would Cleveland be a possibility? I think it used to be a hub for CO back in the day. Close enough to the East Coast where all their planes could comfortably fly around (Cleveland - Syracuse perhaps on a Q400!!!).
All depends if CLE can make the money, some would argue that CLE wont print as much money as CMH or IND when it comes to building a focus city, others think differently.

If gate space wasn't an issue I'd think highly of BNA being able to be an AS focus city.
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flybynight
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Re: Should AS look at an East Coast hub

Thu Nov 09, 2017 5:11 pm

flymco753 wrote:
flybynight wrote:
Looking back at the responses, I think a focus city might be a better idea should AS decide to tackle the East Coast.

Would Cleveland be a possibility? I think it used to be a hub for CO back in the day. Close enough to the East Coast where all their planes could comfortably fly around (Cleveland - Syracuse perhaps on a Q400!!!).
All depends if CLE can make the money, some would argue that CLE wont print as much money as CMH or IND when it comes to building a focus city, others think differently.

If gate space wasn't an issue I'd think highly of BNA being able to be an AS focus city.


Agreed, but Cleveland I would imagine would have the space since it used to be a hub.
Heia Norge!
 
TWFlyGuy
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Re: Should AS look at an East Coast hub

Thu Nov 09, 2017 5:26 pm

I agree with the assessment that the eventual reality is that as AS & B6 earnings stagnate, Wall Street will push for consolidation with those two carriers. If that were to happen, flyover country becomes the missing piece. With that said, I see a MCI/STL option as most viable. In MCI you have a good city with some growth, a new airport that can expand on the way and maintenance facilities available. Lots of WN competition though. You basically have to win the markets because with 2.1MM people, there's limited opportunity to have multiple carriers on many routes. In STL you have a larger population, gate space available today and some limited maintenance capability (old TW hangar) available. Again lots of WN competition and a need to really own the markets you fly. Given the experience AS has with competing with WN in SEA, I imagine they can manage but the smaller population base is a challenge.
 
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ssteve
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Re: Should AS look at an East Coast hub

Thu Nov 09, 2017 7:12 pm

PIT would be interesting.

I lived in SEA 2011-2016 and never flew Alaska. They certainly have all the business routes within the US well covered. But I was either flying home (ALB/SYR/BTV) or a couple times to Hawaii. I suppose if I went to Puerto Vallarta or Acapulco I migh've flown em.

Anyways, just trying to answer the "why do they need a hub" question. #1 they don't. #2 it would open up smaller east coast markets. Not sure they're worth it. The VX acquisition seems to indicate they were chasing business travelers, not vacationgoers. So smaller east coast markets might just be way off their radar.
 
tphuang
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Re: Should AS look at an East Coast hub

Thu Nov 09, 2017 7:27 pm

TWFlyGuy wrote:
I agree with the assessment that the eventual reality is that as AS & B6 earnings stagnate, Wall Street will push for consolidation with those two carriers. If that were to happen, flyover country becomes the missing piece. With that said, I see a MCI/STL option as most viable. In MCI you have a good city with some growth, a new airport that can expand on the way and maintenance facilities available. Lots of WN competition though. You basically have to win the markets because with 2.1MM people, there's limited opportunity to have multiple carriers on many routes. In STL you have a larger population, gate space available today and some limited maintenance capability (old TW hangar) available. Again lots of WN competition and a need to really own the markets you fly. Given the experience AS has with competing with WN in SEA, I imagine they can manage but the smaller population base is a challenge.


except their margins are 2 of the best in the industry. Why would they need to merge when other airlines would be in trouble first?
 
TWFlyGuy
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Re: Should AS look at an East Coast hub

Thu Nov 09, 2017 7:32 pm

tphuang wrote:
TWFlyGuy wrote:
I agree with the assessment that the eventual reality is that as AS & B6 earnings stagnate, Wall Street will push for consolidation with those two carriers. If that were to happen, flyover country becomes the missing piece. With that said, I see a MCI/STL option as most viable. In MCI you have a good city with some growth, a new airport that can expand on the way and maintenance facilities available. Lots of WN competition though. You basically have to win the markets because with 2.1MM people, there's limited opportunity to have multiple carriers on many routes. In STL you have a larger population, gate space available today and some limited maintenance capability (old TW hangar) available. Again lots of WN competition and a need to really own the markets you fly. Given the experience AS has with competing with WN in SEA, I imagine they can manage but the smaller population base is a challenge.


except their margins are 2 of the best in the industry. Why would they need to merge when other airlines would be in trouble first?


As I mentioned, when their earnings stagnate, investors will push for it. Earnings growth is their motivation. Just because they invested in a stable company with a specific strategy doesn't mean some hedge fund or "activist investor" won't come in to push the idea.
 
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usxguy
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Re: Should AS look at at East Coast hub

Thu Nov 09, 2017 7:41 pm

EA CO AS wrote:
CHI2DFW wrote:
AS was doing well, then acquired VS. let’s see how the integration goes before adding an East of Denver hub.


AS is still doing well, just not as well as before.

And they acquired VX, not VS.


Delta essentially got VS! Although I'd love to see 747-400s in pax config flying SEA/ANC. Might make non-reving a bit easier.
xx
 
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Re: Should AS look at at East Coast hub

Thu Nov 09, 2017 8:28 pm

usxguy wrote:
I'd love to see 747-400s in pax config flying SEA/ANC. Might make non-reving a bit easier.


If the price is right, you might just see new 767-300s flying SEAANC in AS livery.... ;)
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Comments made here are my own and are not intended to represent the official position of Alaska Air Group
 
32andBelow
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Re: Should AS look at at East Coast hub

Thu Nov 09, 2017 10:12 pm

usxguy wrote:
EA CO AS wrote:
CHI2DFW wrote:
AS was doing well, then acquired VS. let’s see how the integration goes before adding an East of Denver hub.


AS is still doing well, just not as well as before.

And they acquired VX, not VS.


Delta essentially got VS! Although I'd love to see 747-400s in pax config flying SEA/ANC. Might make non-reving a bit easier.

Non revving is easy now with DL
 
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flybynight
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Re: Should AS look at at East Coast hub

Thu Nov 09, 2017 10:36 pm

EA CO AS wrote:
usxguy wrote:
I'd love to see 747-400s in pax config flying SEA/ANC. Might make non-reving a bit easier.


If the price is right, you might just see new 767-300s flying SEAANC in AS livery.... ;)


Now that would be cool! I bet the 787 would look great in Alaska colors. They would have to insist their 787's be built in Everett!! :)
Heia Norge!
 
hiflyeras
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Re: Should AS look at at East Coast hub

Thu Nov 09, 2017 11:07 pm

EA CO AS wrote:
If the price is right, you might just see new 767-300s flying SEAANC in AS livery.... ;)


Wouldn't that be something. I have heard that AS has considered wide-bodies not that long ago. The 787 is a bit too much of an airframe for their needs but a new 767 might be perfect. Will be interesting if Boeing actually starts passenger production again but I'd be really surprised if they did.
 
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Re: Should AS look at at East Coast hub

Fri Nov 10, 2017 2:00 am

hiflyeras wrote:
EA CO AS wrote:
If the price is right, you might just see new 767-300s flying SEAANC in AS livery.... ;)


Wouldn't that be something. I have heard that AS has considered wide-bodies not that long ago. The 787 is a bit too much of an airframe for their needs but a new 767 might be perfect. Will be interesting if Boeing actually starts passenger production again but I'd be really surprised if they did.


Rumor has it AS seriously considered the 787 a few years back, and it was actually Boeing that talked them out of it. AS would definitely be a potential MoM customer, but if the price is right, I can see them taking a long hard look at the 767-300 if Boeing were actually producing new frames and/or tweaking it with new improvements.
"In this present crisis, government is not the solution to our problem - government IS the problem." - Ronald Reagan

Comments made here are my own and are not intended to represent the official position of Alaska Air Group
 
dc10lover
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Re: Should AS look at at East Coast hub

Fri Nov 10, 2017 2:07 am

dabpit wrote:
Just throwing this out there but their East Coast Hub/Focus City will be wherever Amazon puts their HQ2 :)

I wonder what city will be chosen. I would guess Austin, Texas.
Why endure the nightmare and congestion of LAX when BUR, LGB, ONT & SNA is so much easier to fly in and out of. Same with OAK & SJC when it comes to SFO.
 
jumbojet
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Re: Should AS look at an East Coast hub

Fri Nov 10, 2017 2:14 am

I'm actually surprised AS hasn't announced a flatbed product yet. Being a major player up and down the west coast, if AS ever increased their footprint on the east coast, I think that would have to be a prerequisite.
 
Noise
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Re: Should AS look at an East Coast hub

Fri Nov 10, 2017 2:56 am

Looking at a combined AS/B6 airline, they'd have a pretty large presence in AUS, ABQ and SLC.
 
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EA CO AS
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Re: Should AS look at an East Coast hub

Fri Nov 10, 2017 4:02 am

jumbojet wrote:
I'm actually surprised AS hasn't announced a flatbed product yet. Being a major player up and down the west coast, if AS ever increased their footprint on the east coast, I think that would have to be a prerequisite.



AS sees more potential - and less cost - in maintaining a standard F product with 41” pitch instead of operating a costly dedicated transcon subfleet and getting into the “lie-flat arms race” that AA/DL/UA/B6 have gotten into, especially since they don’t rely as heavily on corporate contracts like those 4 do.
"In this present crisis, government is not the solution to our problem - government IS the problem." - Ronald Reagan

Comments made here are my own and are not intended to represent the official position of Alaska Air Group
 
Overthecascades
Posts: 194
Joined: Sat Oct 01, 2016 3:13 pm

Re: Should AS look at an East Coast hub

Fri Nov 10, 2017 4:32 am

If anything, a mid-con Hub makes more sense than east coast.

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