fsxfan38
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Could anything save the 747?

Tue Nov 07, 2017 1:29 pm

With more airlines deciding to retire their 747-400 fleets and with very few airlines buying the new 747-8is, it almost seems as if we could be seeing the absolute last 747 passenger flight within the next 5-7 years.

Do you guys think that there is any way for this trend to reverse and more airlines would be convinced to give the 747-8 a chance?

In my opinion I really don't think that'll happen. Even if Boeing made a super fuel efficient version of the 747, the 747 would unfortunately still be viewed by major airlines, especially US carriers as a relic of the past while aircraft like the 777, 787, and the A350XWB are viewed as the future.

However I don't think that the 747 as a whole is going to die anytime soon. I foresee that the 747 will become the new DC-10 and have a bright future as a cargo plane, even long after the passenger line is discontinued.
 
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TWA772LR
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Re: Could anything save the 747?

Tue Nov 07, 2017 1:49 pm

A combination of every country in the world outlawing 777, 787s, A350s, and A380s, and Boeing giving them away for free.
When wasn't America great?


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FoxtrotSierra
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Re: Could anything save the 747?

Tue Nov 07, 2017 2:07 pm

I think it’s too early to say the 748i is finished. It’s more or less an open secret in the airline industry that Boeing is desperate to sell 748’s to anyone who still wants them. The problem is, all the airlines who are seriously interested know this and won’t make an offer until the very end, when Boeing announces the end of production. They are opportunistic, and don’t want to buy until they know the price can’t go any lower, and when Boeing reaches that point, I think we’ll see 1-2, maybe 3 airlines make an end of line purchases. I can almost guarantee we will see an order from at least one of the following:

KLM
Qantas
Turkish
Singapore
Iran Air
Saudia
Qatar
 
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usair330
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Re: Could anything save the 747?

Tue Nov 07, 2017 2:21 pm

Image

2 engines is the only way I can see the 747 coming back to life. And it would have to be more fuel efficient than the 777-3
 
rlo4934
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Re: Could anything save the 747?

Tue Nov 07, 2017 2:23 pm

BA would have ordered more, according to Willie Walsh, if Boeing had given them an engine option, i.e., Rolls Royce engines. May not have saved the program, but would have been a nice feather in Boeing's cap to have BA order the new version.
 
VSMUT
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Re: Could anything save the 747?

Tue Nov 07, 2017 2:25 pm

FoxtrotSierra wrote:
I think it’s too early to say the 748i is finished. It’s more or less an open secret in the airline industry that Boeing is desperate to sell 748’s to anyone who still wants them. The problem is, all the airlines who are seriously interested know this and won’t make an offer until the very end, when Boeing announces the end of production. They are opportunistic, and don’t want to buy until they know the price can’t go any lower, and when Boeing reaches that point, I think we’ll see 1-2, maybe 3 airlines make an end of line purchases. I can almost guarantee we will see an order from at least one of the following:

KLM
Qantas
Turkish
Singapore
Iran Air
Saudia
Qatar


Boeing has already gone official that they are more or less dropping the 747-8i. They don't really have any incentive to keep it any more. It competes too much with the non-selling 777X, and they would be absolutely correct in focusing all efforts on saving the latter from the fate of the former.

You can remove KLM, Qantas and Singapore from that list. There is no way either of those will ever find a need for the 747-8i.
 
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Aesma
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Re: Could anything save the 747?

Tue Nov 07, 2017 2:40 pm

If you buy now, you must keep it till the end, as resale value will probably be crap.
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william
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Re: Could anything save the 747?

Tue Nov 07, 2017 2:43 pm

When the 777 became a sales success, it was too late for the 747 and that was decades ago.
 
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william
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Re: Could anything save the 747?

Tue Nov 07, 2017 2:45 pm

usair330 wrote:
Image

2 engines is the only way I can see the 747 coming back to life. And it would have to be more fuel efficient than the 777-3


You know, if Boeing made a 777 variant like that kiss 747-8 freight sales good bye too.
 
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BirdBrain
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Re: Could anything save the 747?

Tue Nov 07, 2017 2:49 pm

I sure hope it survives but the writing is on the wall. The end is near, I'm afraid. I think airlines out of Asia are good candidates, if any. As "used" 77Ws and A380s become available, this hope may shrink further.

Personally though, I hope there are plenty more new 748i coming off the production line and into the arms of commercial airlines.
 
questions
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Re: Could anything save the 747?

Tue Nov 07, 2017 2:53 pm

Did the industry need the 748 AND the A380?

Without the A380 would more sales have gone to the 748 vs 777, therefore increasing demand for the 748?
 
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pwm2txlhopper
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Re: Could anything save the 747?

Tue Nov 07, 2017 2:53 pm

fsxfan38 wrote:
With more airlines deciding to retire their 747-400 fleets and with very few airlines buying the new 747-8is, it almost seems as if we could be seeing the absolute last 747 passenger flight within the next 5-7 years.

Do you guys think that there is any way for this trend to reverse and more airlines would be convinced to give the 747-8 a chance?

In my opinion I really don't think that'll happen. Even if Boeing made a super fuel efficient version of the 747, the 747 would unfortunately still be viewed by major airlines, especially US carriers as a relic of the past while aircraft like the 777, 787, and the A350XWB are viewed as the future.

However I don't think that the 747 as a whole is going to die anytime soon. I foresee that the 747 will become the new DC-10 and have a bright future as a cargo plane, even long after the passenger line is discontinued.



What could save the 747? Airlines placing orders.

Lufthansa and a few others have -800 that are only a few years old. So, it will be more than a few years before there are no passenger versions flying.
 
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Mortyman
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Re: Could anything save the 747?

Tue Nov 07, 2017 3:00 pm

From what I have read, KLM is desperatly looking for a replacement for their B747 Combis ... It's a shame Boeing didn't find such a solution for the B747-8.
 
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Iemand91
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Re: Could anything save the 747?

Tue Nov 07, 2017 3:37 pm

Mortyman wrote:
From what I have read, KLM is desperatly looking for a replacement for their B747 Combis ... It's a shame Boeing didn't find such a solution for the B747-8.

Not really. Their new 777's and 787 offer more cargo space below than the 747. They'll also get some A350's in a couple of years and who knows
a couple of 777-9's in the distant future.
Yes they'll lose the profitable main deck cargo capabilities (which is a damn shame), but they get more cargo space below in return.

AF/KLM has also severely reduced their (dedicated)cargo fleet in the last years.

And to add to that; they have never expressed interest in the 747-8i or 747-8F in recent years, quite the opposite actually.
There is a rumour going around they had been interested in a 747-8M at some point but the number of orders would be to big for KLM. Don't know if it's true or not, but as of 2017; no place for the 747-8i/8F at AF/KLM period.
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FoxtrotSierra
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Re: Could anything save the 747?

Tue Nov 07, 2017 3:42 pm

Iemand91 wrote:
Mortyman wrote:
From what I have read, KLM is desperatly looking for a replacement for their B747 Combis ... It's a shame Boeing didn't find such a solution for the B747-8.

Not really. Their new 777's and 787 offer more cargo space below than the 747. They'll also get some A350's in a couple of years.
Yes they'll lose the profitable main deck cargo capabilities (which is a damn shame), but they get more cargo space below in return.


With the exception of LH, everyone has the 77W, so we are looking at VLA's only.

Let's see:

BA 744 to A380
AF 744 to A380
LH 744 to A380/748
KL 744 to ???

KLM has 748 written all over it!
 
Elementalism
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Re: Could anything save the 747?

Tue Nov 07, 2017 3:43 pm

usair330 wrote:
Image

2 engines is the only way I can see the 747 coming back to life. And it would have to be more fuel efficient than the 777-3


That actually looks pretty nice.
 
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Iemand91
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Re: Could anything save the 747?

Tue Nov 07, 2017 4:17 pm

FoxtrotSierra wrote:
Iemand91 wrote:
Mortyman wrote:
From what I have read, KLM is desperatly looking for a replacement for their B747 Combis ... It's a shame Boeing didn't find such a solution for the B747-8.

Not really. Their new 777's and 787 offer more cargo space below than the 747. They'll also get some A350's in a couple of years.
Yes they'll lose the profitable main deck cargo capabilities (which is a damn shame), but they get more cargo space below in return.


With the exception of LH, everyone has the 77W, so we are looking at VLA's only.

Let's see:

BA 744 to A380
AF 744 to A380
LH 744 to A380/748
KL 744 to ???

KLM has 748 written all over it!

All 3 have also more premium seat configurations, with First, Business and a actually premium Economy class which can fill those huge planes. KLM has neither.
If KLM would fly the A380 for instance; it would be the highest number of seats in an A380, more than Emirates 615 seat A380.
At KLM; their 777-300ER has exactly the same number of seats as their full-pax 747-400, with more cargo space below and it flies it further and more efficiënt. Why would they then get the 747-8i?

KLM is happy flying smaller, more efficient aircraft to more/smaller airports instead of flying big aircraft to big cities.

While my biggest aviation dream is KLM ordering the 747-8; it won't happen.
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flyingclrs727
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Re: Could anything save the 747?

Tue Nov 07, 2017 4:25 pm

questions wrote:
Did the industry need the 748 AND the A380?

Without the A380 would more sales have gone to the 748 vs 777, therefore increasing demand for the 748?


Without the A380, would Boeing have bothered with developing the 748?
 
oldannyboy
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Re: Could anything save the 747?

Tue Nov 07, 2017 4:37 pm

I suppose -although very late in the day- a couple of big orders could still probably keep the line going for a few more years....but what after that? I think the 747 concept is done. The 77W pretty much does the same job with 2 engines...
Don't get me wrong: I LOVE the 747. Absolutely love it, but.....
 
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flyingclrs727
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Re: Could anything save the 747?

Tue Nov 07, 2017 4:46 pm

Mortyman wrote:
From what I have read, KLM is desperatly looking for a replacement for their B747 Combis ... It's a shame Boeing didn't find such a solution for the B747-8.


There isn't much need for combis anymore. Back when KLM got their first 742M's, there were very few widebody freighters offering space on the main deck of the aircraft and suitable for cargo too large to place in the cargo holds of passenger side bodies. Now there are lots of widebody freighters flying all over the world. KLM also had determined that the all passenger 747's were too big for their networks. Mixing passengers and freight would cut down on seats to fill while allowing KLM to offer air freight service worldwide for large items that previously could not be air freighted on commercial planes.

Nowadays it's not worthwhile to buy new 748 combis. The new regulations they would have to meet are likely to add more weight. The market isn't large enough to justify the minimum orders Boeing wants. There are also smaller widebodies with lower CASM than the 748. There's no need to add main deck cargo to reduce seat counts.
 
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Re: Could anything save the 747?

Tue Nov 07, 2017 5:03 pm

If Airbus closed the 380 line there likely would be a few more 748i orders. I don't expect either.
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Re: Could anything save the 747?

Tue Nov 07, 2017 5:14 pm

TWA772LR wrote:
A combination of every country in the world outlawing 777, 787s, A350s, and A380s, and Boeing giving them away for free.


LOL good one
 
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hOMSaR
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Re: Could anything save the 747?

Tue Nov 07, 2017 5:24 pm

The question is, what does a passenger 747-8i offer (and that airlines are looking for) that a 777X doesn’t? The answer, really, is nothing. There is very little that it offers that a 77W doesn’t offer, and the cost difference is too much for too little extra to be worth it.

When LH ordered the 777X, dropped their options for 748s, and didn’t even take delivery of all 20 originally on firm order, that should have made it pretty obvious that the 747’s days as a new-build passenger airplane were done.
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NameOmitted
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Re: Could anything save the 747?

Tue Nov 07, 2017 5:50 pm

The question presupposes the 747 needs saving. The 747-8 was a "fleet in being." It provided price pressure on the A380, preventing Airbus from enjoying the sort of cash cow that Boeing enjoyed for so long, and being able to plow that extra cash into other programs. In that, the program is successful.

Freighter orders continue to trickle in. There is no freighter A380, nor is there likely to be as long as there is a 747 able to be converted, since the most expensive 747 available will be cheaper than designing an A380-F, denying A380 operators of a huge portion of the second hand market, further depressing the value of the A380 as a potential cash cow.

The 747-8 program has been a strategic success, and sales for the freighter are still trickling in. The line will continue to crawl along, and there will be ships in the sky for several decades yet.
 
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Re: Could anything save the 747?

Tue Nov 07, 2017 6:07 pm

rlo4934 wrote:
BA would have ordered more, according to Willie Walsh, if Boeing had given them an engine option, i.e., Rolls Royce engines. May not have saved the program, but would have been a nice feather in Boeing's cap to have BA order the new version.


Why didn't Boeing consider putting the RR engines on the 748?? :?:
They had the engines for such a plane as it was already being put on the 787 just like the GE engines fitted to the 748.
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Aptivaboy
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Re: Could anything save the 747?

Tue Nov 07, 2017 6:12 pm

Were they to PIP the living daylights out of the thing and offer it at near giveaway prices, then yes, I think we'd see a few more orders. The key here is to get it close enough to the various twin engined competitors in terms of efficiency that the acquisition and maintenance costs make up the difference. However, as Boeing hasn't done this:
A. They have studied the issue and decided that they can't, or...
B. They can, but doing so would cannibalize 777 sales, and they aren't willing to go down that road.

Either way, the Queen is largely dead. It's a shame, really. From my perspective, a sale is a sale and were I Boeing I'd be more concerned with selling something, anything, than nothing. I'd rather sell a 748 than a 777 if the option is not selling anything at all. A super PIP might have worked a few years ago, but I fear that time has moved on and it's too late.
 
catdaddy63
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Re: Could anything save the 747?

Tue Nov 07, 2017 6:14 pm

Will Boeing build a few new 748F for conversion to 748LCF before the line ends? Would a 748LCF be able to haul the 78J midsections to PAE to supplement production at CHS?
 
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Re: Could anything save the 747?

Tue Nov 07, 2017 6:15 pm

usair330 wrote:
2 engines is the only way I can see the 747 coming back to life. And it would have to be more fuel efficient than the 777-3

Aww, I miss seeing that photo. Thanks for digging it up again! :bigthumbsup:
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Re: Could anything save the 747?

Tue Nov 07, 2017 6:22 pm

Mumrik wrote:
rlo4934 wrote:
BA would have ordered more, according to Willie Walsh, if Boeing had given them an engine option, i.e., Rolls Royce engines. May not have saved the program, but would have been a nice feather in Boeing's cap to have BA order the new version.


Why didn't Boeing consider putting the RR engines on the 748?? :?:
They had the engines for such a plane as it was already being put on the 787 just like the GE engines fitted to the 748.


A BA management type I spoke to the day they received their first A380 described that as a wasted opportunity and that the stats on the A380 worked out better for them.
 
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Re: Could anything save the 747?

Tue Nov 07, 2017 6:25 pm

FoxtrotSierra wrote:
I can almost guarantee we will see an order from at least one of the following:

KLM
Qantas
Turkish
Singapore
Iran Air
Saudia
Qatar

It's a good thing you're not Boeing, 'cause it ain't happening :)
KL, QF, SQ, not happening, 100% sure of that.
TK, 99% sure it won't happen either. Especially with an imminent huge new hub.
QR, 99% sure it won't happen, with 50 779's on order, why?
Iran Air, not while Trump is president and after he's gone it will probably be too late.
Saudi, not likely. Even their current 744's aren't theirs. They are leased. They seem to be more interested in going small with the start of their new LCC, Flyadeal and their more recent new fleet, the 789.
 
aviatorcraig
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Re: Could anything save the 747?

Tue Nov 07, 2017 6:37 pm

Mumrik wrote:
rlo4934 wrote:
BA would have ordered more, according to Willie Walsh, if Boeing had given them an engine option, i.e., Rolls Royce engines. May not have saved the program, but would have been a nice feather in Boeing's cap to have BA order the new version.


Why didn't Boeing consider putting the RR engines on the 748?? :?:
They had the engines for such a plane as it was already being put on the 787 just like the GE engines fitted to the 748.


I think this is a red herring.
Whilst it is true that over the years BA has been a good customer of RR, just like AF has been a loyal GE customer, I don't think it is a show stopper provided the deal is right (e.g. capital cost, maintenance costs, support etc.). Lack of engine choice didn't prevent BA from buying (and then supplementing) a moderate sized 773 fleet.

(Edited for typo)
Last edited by aviatorcraig on Tue Nov 07, 2017 6:43 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Could anything save the 747?

Tue Nov 07, 2017 6:39 pm

Elementalism wrote:
That actually looks pretty nice.


CGI is your friend.
No need to buy. :-)
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Planesmart
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Re: Could anything save the 747?

Tue Nov 07, 2017 7:03 pm

Given Boeing have been selling 748's at little more than cost since launch, have also significantly discounted finance, own many more than they would like through leasing and security interests, have the hiatus of suppliers triggering exit clauses (so having to bring components back inhouse and make compensation payments), and want to protect other models, the future must be in doubt. On the plus side, what buybacks and parts price guarantees were issued for the LH order, were they suspended when the options and 20th were not delivered, and were they fully or partly re-instated when alternative Boeing models were ordered.

Perhaps Boeing is looking at the ongoing success of the 767 and A330, and 757 if only scenarios, so could a miracle happen? Would have thought a 767NEO was more likely than 748 production continuing beyond the UPS order, though undisclosed contingent liabilities may be a big part of the decision.
 
SCAT15F
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Re: Could anything save the 747?

Tue Nov 07, 2017 7:18 pm

The disappointment that is the 747-8 program is a direct result of two factors:

1.The failure of GE to provide an engine that met promised specifications (and still doesn't, by the way) The -2b67 was like 4-5% over spec at service entry.

2. Boeing's stealing of resources from the 748 program to deal with 787 issues. This resulted in a massively overweight aircraft. 10,000 lbs has been taken out and its still many thousands of pounds over promised OEW.

Both of these issues were partially addressed with PIP's and weight reductions but it was too little too late. None of this can be faulted to the 747's design or the fact that it has 4 engines. Its the result of pathetically poor execution by both Boeing and GE.

There. I've finished my rant.
 
SCAT15F
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Re: Could anything save the 747?

Tue Nov 07, 2017 7:25 pm

Saving the 748 (beyond the -8F) would in my opinion require a GEnx-2b using GE9X technology and giving 5% better sfc, a reduction of OEW to original promised spec (466,000lb) or lower, and full implementation of Project Ozark improvements (higher MTOW, improved wing-body fairing, improved wingtips. Overall this could increase efficiency by perhaps 8% (possibly 10%)
Last edited by SCAT15F on Tue Nov 07, 2017 7:27 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
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Re: Could anything save the 747?

Tue Nov 07, 2017 7:27 pm

Mortyman wrote:
From what I have read, KLM is desperatly looking for a replacement for their B747 Combis ... It's a shame Boeing didn't find such a solution for the B747-8.

The 779 is effectively a two deck Combi.

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rlo4934
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Re: Could anything save the 747?

Tue Nov 07, 2017 7:38 pm

aviatorcraig wrote:
Mumrik wrote:
rlo4934 wrote:
BA would have ordered more, according to Willie Walsh, if Boeing had given them an engine option, i.e., Rolls Royce engines. May not have saved the program, but would have been a nice feather in Boeing's cap to have BA order the new version.


Why didn't Boeing consider putting the RR engines on the 748?? :?:
They had the engines for such a plane as it was already being put on the 787 just like the GE engines fitted to the 748.


I think this is a red herring.
Whilst it is true that over the years BA has been a good customer of RR, just like AF has been a loyal GE customer, I don't think it is a show stopper provided the deal is right (e.g. capital cost, maintenance costs, support etc.). Lack of engine choice didn't prevent BA from buying (and then supplementing) a moderate sized 773 fleet.

(Edited for typo)


Possibly. This article quoted the CEO of BA in 2015. BA seems to be a true 747 supporter given their length of service they plan to keep their 747's when most airlines are retiring the 747.

https://leehamnews.com/2015/06/09/we-wa ... s-at-iata/
 
Flighty
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Re: Could anything save the 747?

Tue Nov 07, 2017 8:02 pm

The trouble is that new build widebody airplanes need to be run hard to pay off their capital cost. 12 hours per day is typical . To fly a 747 12 hours/day x 365 is a big risk. Only a few markets can justify that much fuel. LAX-FRA and the like.

When that much money is involved, it is your duty to compare the 748 to the A380 and the 777. The 748 is not really better than the 77W and it incurs more daily cost. The A380 is clearly better and costs the same to run. So any responsible operator cannot choose the 748 from a risk perspective today. It's obsolete. Nice airplane though.
 
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Boeing778X
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Re: Could anything save the 747?

Tue Nov 07, 2017 8:06 pm

VSMUT wrote:
FoxtrotSierra wrote:
I think it’s too early to say the 748i is finished. It’s more or less an open secret in the airline industry that Boeing is desperate to sell 748’s to anyone who still wants them. The problem is, all the airlines who are seriously interested know this and won’t make an offer until the very end, when Boeing announces the end of production. They are opportunistic, and don’t want to buy until they know the price can’t go any lower, and when Boeing reaches that point, I think we’ll see 1-2, maybe 3 airlines make an end of line purchases. I can almost guarantee we will see an order from at least one of the following:

KLM
Qantas
Turkish
Singapore
Iran Air
Saudia
Qatar


It competes too much with the non-selling 777X.


Non-Selling 777X? What a load of crock :banghead:
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flyingclrs727
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Re: Could anything save the 747?

Tue Nov 07, 2017 8:25 pm

rlo4934 wrote:
aviatorcraig wrote:
Mumrik wrote:

Why didn't Boeing consider putting the RR engines on the 748?? :?:
They had the engines for such a plane as it was already being put on the 787 just like the GE engines fitted to the 748.


I think this is a red herring.
Whilst it is true that over the years BA has been a good customer of RR, just like AF has been a loyal GE customer, I don't think it is a show stopper provided the deal is right (e.g. capital cost, maintenance costs, support etc.). Lack of engine choice didn't prevent BA from buying (and then supplementing) a moderate sized 773 fleet.

(Edited for typo)


Possibly. This article quoted the CEO of BA in 2015. BA seems to be a true 747 supporter given their length of service they plan to keep their 747's when most airlines are retiring the 747.

https://leehamnews.com/2015/06/09/we-wa ... s-at-iata/


There's no way Boeing is going to build a 748 with anything but GENx engines. BA keeps flying 744's, because they are paid off and are able to sell lots of premium class seats on them to offset the higher operating costs.
 
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Re: Could anything save the 747?

Tue Nov 07, 2017 10:14 pm

SCAT15F wrote:
Saving the 748 (beyond the -8F) would in my opinion require a GEnx-2b using GE9X technology and giving 5% better sfc, a reduction of OEW to original promised spec (466,000lb) or lower, and full implementation of Project Ozark improvements (higher MTOW, improved wing-body fairing, improved wingtips. Overall this could increase efficiency by perhaps 8% (possibly 10%)


lipstick on a pig at gold dust pricing.
at least the 737 gets dinosaur benefits.
Murphy is an optimist
 
EddieDude
Posts: 6975
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Re: Could anything save the 747?

Wed Nov 08, 2017 12:02 am

KL is not happening. To think otherwise is wishful thinking.They will have 789s, 77Es and 77Ws (maybe A359s) to rely on once the 744s and 74Ms are gone. If I am not mistaken, KL has a very dense configuration for 77W, so those planes can definitely take care of the routes currently served by the full-pax 744s.

If any, perhaps (iffy at best), there could be a very small top-up order by CA, LH or KE. Then again, I won't hold my breath. Seems to me LH can be ruled out. The prospects for the pax variant 748i are very bad.
Upcoming flights:
May: AM MEX-CUN 73H (Y), AM CUN-MEX 73W (Y).
August: KL MEX-AMS 74M (J), KQ AMS-NBO 788 (J).
 
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CanadaFair
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Re: Could anything save the 747?

Wed Nov 08, 2017 1:29 am

If Combi niche is in demand again.
 
iamlucky13
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Re: Could anything save the 747?

Wed Nov 08, 2017 2:06 am

VSMUT wrote:
Boeing has already gone official that they are more or less dropping the 747-8i. They don't really have any incentive to keep it any more. It competes too much with the non-selling 777X, and they would be absolutely correct in focusing all efforts on saving the latter from the fate of the former.


I missed anything official. The end certainly seems to be looming, but the only public action I know of was the consolidation of the separate "medium" and "large" widebody segments from their 20 year market forecasts into a single "medium / large" segment.

What was reported at that time was:
https://www.seattletimes.com/business/b ... ger-plane/

“We don’t see significant demand for passenger 747-8s or A380s,” Tinseth said in an earlier briefing embargoed until his presentation in Paris.

He said Boeing in the years ahead expects to sell “just a handful” of nonfreighter versions of the 747, consisting of VIP private planes for foreign heads of state plus the two or three heavily modified 747s that will be supplied to serve as the Air Force One planes for the U.S. president.


They have not given any indication they are no longer offering it, although I doubt they are any longer devoting many staff to active sales campaigns.
 
CyBeRino
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Re: Could anything save the 747?

Wed Nov 08, 2017 2:14 am

EddieDude wrote:
If I am not mistaken, KL has a very dense configuration for 77W, so those planes can definitely take care of the routes currently served by the full-pax 744s.


To the point where their 77W can carry the exact same amount of people as the full-pax 744: both 408. (And obviously a lot more than the 74M at 268).
 
CHI2DFW
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Re: Could anything save the 747?

Wed Nov 08, 2017 2:19 am

Nope. Airline execs like their planes like their mistresses, only two holers!
 
questions
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Re: Could anything save the 747?

Wed Nov 08, 2017 3:16 am

CHI2DFW wrote:
Nope. Airline execs like their planes like their mistresses, only two holers!


Umm... are their “mistresses” guys??
 
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aemoreira1981
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Joined: Mon Jan 09, 2017 12:17 am

Re: Could anything save the 747?

Wed Nov 08, 2017 3:32 am

As a passenger aircraft, no, not with the evolving of travel to smaller, more capable wide-bodies. The B77W, B789, and soon the 280t A359 and 308t A35K are/will be more capable aircraft that can complete the same missions and then some. The B748F and B744F, or B744BCF/BDSF, however, will remain valuable and such can be stored in the desert until older examples time out.

What could be interesting, however, is if a consortium of airlines, say, KLM/Asiana/EVA request an order for a combi aircraft with rear cargo capability, or if KLM decides to sit down with IAI to see if some B77Ws can be converted to combi configuration.
 
DWC
Posts: 608
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Re: Could anything save the 747?

Wed Nov 08, 2017 4:00 am

NameOmitted wrote:
The question presupposes the 747 needs saving. The 747-8 was a "fleet in being." It provided price pressure on the A380, preventing Airbus from enjoying the sort of cash cow that Boeing enjoyed for so long, and being able to plow that extra cash into other programs. In that, the program is successful.

Freighter orders continue to trickle in. There is no freighter A380, nor is there likely to be as long as there is a 747 able to be converted, since the most expensive 747 available will be cheaper than designing an A380-F, denying A380 operators of a huge portion of the second hand market, further depressing the value of the A380 as a potential cash cow.

The 747-8 program has been a strategic success, and sales for the freighter are still trickling in. The line will continue to crawl along, and there will be ships in the sky for several decades yet.


EXCELLENT.
I was just talking Game Theory on the A380 & 747-8i here
viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1377885&start=150#p19941785
 
fsxfan38
Topic Author
Posts: 23
Joined: Fri Oct 27, 2017 1:06 pm

Re: Could anything save the 747?

Wed Nov 08, 2017 4:05 am

As much as the 747 is a gorgeous beautiful plane and I'd love to see them fly for 40 more years...Sadly us aircraft enthusiasts are just a mere drop of water in the ocean known as the aviation industry...

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