Per FlightGlobal - https://www.flightglobal.com/news/artic ... -r-443541/

2x weekly from Chengdu to Chicago
2x weekly from Shenzen to Vienna

Merely with CAAC for initial route designations.

Not applied yet to US or European authorities. Need to see first if CAAC awards them the designation.

CTU-ORD seems reasonable. SZX-VIE less so. VIE only got a HKG flight relatively recently, I can't think of many people needing to go from Shenzhen to Vienna!

CTU-JFK and CTU-ORD on HU must be a pretty long flight.

Also, I find it quite odd that SZX is gaining flights to Europe when HKG and CAN are nearby. SZX has gained flights to FRA on Air China, and I believe BRU and VIE are planned by HU.

CTU-ORD fills a hole ORD has, but not the largest Asian one (which escapes me right now).

nmdrdh787 wrote:

CTU-ORD fills a hole ORD has, but not the largest Asian one (which escapes me right now).

ORD-ICN on UA would be nice.
ORD-SIN on SQ would be nice.
ORD-KIX would be nice, but not likely.
ORD-MNL via YVR by PR has been rumored on this forum, but seems like a money draining route.

Other than that, ORD seems well covered to Asia, probably overcovered to China.

CTU ORD and SHE VIE will just bleed heavily for Hainan and die a slow death. I really don't understand their overall strategy as it's purely P2P as they don't have a single proper network hub airport.

ORD does not have that high demand to BKK KUL CGK SIN ORD SGN to warrant a new service. SQ is better off focusing its US East coast presence in the NYC and hopefully soon the higher yielding IAD marketplace.

behramjee wrote:

CTU ORD and SHE VIE will just bleed heavily for Hainan and die a slow death. I really don't understand their overall strategy as it's purely P2P as they don't have a single proper network hub airport.

ORD does not have that high demand to BKK KUL CGK SIN ORD SGN to warrant a new service. SQ is better off focusing its US East coast presence in the NYC and hopefully soon the higher yielding IAD marketplace.

UA895/896, before UA ended the HKG-SIN tags, actually carry a fair amount of ORD-SIN traffic. On the other hand, though, non-stop ORD-SIN can only be flew by A359ULR. ORD premium demand is just not quite as big as NYC (But then, not much is).

As for Hainan Airlines overall - it has to do with China's "One route, one airline" policy anyway. Hence you see all these random P2P flights, especially to US. Better get the route authority, just fly them low frequency (Like how HU is doing to the two aforementioned route at 2/wk), then not getting to fly the route once somebody else start flying it.

CTU-ORD seems reasonable. SZX-VIE less so. VIE only got a HKG flight relatively recently, I can't think of many people needing to go from Shenzhen to Vienna!

I would say it's mainly a tourism route (Come on...Chinese tourists are everywhere anyway, except South Korea and Taiwan ). On the other hand, it's 2/wk, so it's not like they will lose that much money.

CHI2DFW wrote:

nmdrdh787 wrote:

CTU-ORD fills a hole ORD has, but not the largest Asian one (which escapes me right now).

ORD-ICN on UA would be nice.
ORD-SIN on SQ would be nice.
ORD-KIX would be nice, but not likely.
ORD-MNL via YVR by PR has been rumored on this forum, but seems like a money draining route.

Other than that, ORD seems well covered to Asia, probably overcovered to China.

ICN - No. OZ already covered it and not enough demand for 2 *A flights.
SIN - Once those A359ULR comes in, maybe.
KIX - Doubtful. It's just not a big market, even though Osaka area has a ton of people.
MNL - Is there any MNL long-haul that can make money anyway? (On the other hand, come on, we all know MNL-MIA will come first).

There strategy is to apply for as many routes as they can, since they're seriously overcapacity and it's hard to find a suitable for their 30-strong 789 to fly to.

Michael

And what about PEK-MEX via TIJ? I heard that HU will follow the steps of CZ in flights between China and Mexico, and it could be possible that MU will also serve this market...

Korean already flies ORD to ICN as well.

On another note on CTU-ORD, it's not like it's the first long-haul route from CTU for HU anyway (They fly to both LAX and JFK from CTU), nor ORD (3/wk to PEK).

Prediction? CKG-ORD coming soon. That way, they'll control pretty much all US long-haul from CTU and CKG, flying to the 3 largest metro areas in US from there.

Suspend all logic on the HNA long haul route map - if UA can’t make money on SFO - hangzhou, there is no way, without dramatic and huge funding from the Chinese government, will CTU- ORD work.

BestWestern wrote:

Suspend all logic on the HNA long haul route map - if UA can’t make money on SFO - hangzhou, there is no way, without dramatic and huge funding from the Chinese government, will CTU- ORD work.

UA is still flying SFO-CTU, though. Totally different market, as HGH do leak to PVG to certain extent (It is about 1hr on HSR from Shanghai to Hangzhou).

There is also UA SFO-XIY (seasonal) that doesn't exactly have the best load. Xi'an economically does lack behind CTU or even CKG (and places like WUH also).

And HU US long haul is actually not that hard to understand. Mostly PEK to more "secondary" cities (aka anything outside of LAX and NYC), followed by the expansion of long-haul from CTU, CKG, and to lesser extent, the like of XIY and CSX, all inland "secondary" cities of mainland, into "primary" cities of US (LAX and NYC, followed by ORD)

HU also applied for 2x Weekly CTU-TLV last week

zakuivcustom wrote:

behramjee wrote:

CTU ORD and SHE VIE will just bleed heavily for Hainan and die a slow death. I really don't understand their overall strategy as it's purely P2P as they don't have a single proper network hub airport.

ORD does not have that high demand to BKK KUL CGK SIN ORD SGN to warrant a new service. SQ is better off focusing its US East coast presence in the NYC and hopefully soon the higher yielding IAD marketplace.

UA895/896, before UA ended the HKG-SIN tags, actually carry a fair amount of ORD-SIN traffic. On the other hand, though, non-stop ORD-SIN can only be flew by A359ULR. ORD premium demand is just not quite as big as NYC (But then, not much is).

As for Hainan Airlines overall - it has to do with China's "One route, one airline" policy anyway. Hence you see all these random P2P flights, especially to US. Better get the route authority, just fly them low frequency (Like how HU is doing to the two aforementioned route at 2/wk), then not getting to fly the route once somebody else start flying it.

CTU-ORD seems reasonable. SZX-VIE less so. VIE only got a HKG flight relatively recently, I can't think of many people needing to go from Shenzhen to Vienna!

I would say it's mainly a tourism route (Come on...Chinese tourists are everywhere anyway, except South Korea and Taiwan ). On the other hand, it's 2/wk, so it's not like they will lose that much money.

CHI2DFW wrote:

nmdrdh787 wrote:

CTU-ORD fills a hole ORD has, but not the largest Asian one (which escapes me right now).

ORD-ICN on UA would be nice.
ORD-SIN on SQ would be nice.
ORD-KIX would be nice, but not likely.
ORD-MNL via YVR by PR has been rumored on this forum, but seems like a money draining route.

Other than that, ORD seems well covered to Asia, probably overcovered to China.

ICN - No. OZ already covered it and not enough demand for 2 *A flights.
SIN - Once those A359ULR comes in, maybe.
KIX - Doubtful. It's just not a big market, even though Osaka area has a ton of people.
MNL - Is there any MNL long-haul that can make money anyway? (On the other hand, come on, we all know MNL-MIA will come first).

Still think this route is just a local government subsidy. Who knows, Rham may be using his slush fund for this route.

NichCage wrote:

Also, I find it quite odd that SZX is gaining flights to Europe when HKG and CAN are nearby. SZX has gained flights to FRA on Air China, and I believe BRU and VIE are planned by HU.

There's absolutely a market for a LHR-SZX flight, probably daily, it amazes me that no one has applied or sought to operate that yet (CA especially).

GCT64 wrote:

NichCage wrote:

Also, I find it quite odd that SZX is gaining flights to Europe when HKG and CAN are nearby. SZX has gained flights to FRA on Air China, and I believe BRU and VIE are planned by HU.

There's absolutely a market for a LHR-SZX flight, probably daily, it amazes me that no one has applied or sought to operate that yet (CA especially).

You would be fighting with the multiple daily frequencies of the HKG megahub to LHR/LGW, the yield won't be attractive although you can probably fill the plane in the back easily.
OS's flight on HKG-VIE is not doing particularly well upfront either, some of my friends got successful bids to upgrade to business one way at around 200EUR. So you can imagine how bad the yield is...(It is usually completely full in Y though)

What happened to the "imminent" announcement of PEK-EDI or suchlike woth Hainan ?

Anyone who wonders why HU starts these routes... It's not really because the Chinese govt subsidizes them. HNA group is a huge global conglomerate that uses loans on top of loans to buy more companies and assets, and then turns around and takes loans on those assets to get more loans. To that end, a 787 is a very valuable asset to own and you can take additional loans out based on the value of that airframe. The actual airline business side of things, with the relative cheap Chinese labor, is probably irrelevant as long as they are not making huge losses.

HNA group owns huge chunks of some fantastic brands such as Hilton and Deutsche Bank, but they have totally overpaid for them.

They are borrowing just to pay down debt, so overall the company is not in great shape at all.

Point to point ultra long haul Routes such as CHengdu ORD and JFK are so tough to make money on. They will fill seats down the back at low yields. Shenzhen to Dublin and Vienna are pure follies.

Anet used to complain about the Delta dartboard. At least delta hits the dart board I feel Hainan is playing pin the donkey.

razokamek wrote:

And what about PEK-MEX via TIJ? I heard that HU will follow the steps of CZ in flights between China and Mexico, and it could be possible that MU will also serve this market...

Both HU and AM are rumored to be looking at serving PEK-MEX. Nothing has been announced yet.

zakuivcustom wrote:

behramjee wrote:

CTU ORD and SHE VIE will just bleed heavily for Hainan and die a slow death. I really don't understand their overall strategy as it's purely P2P as they don't have a single proper network hub airport.

ORD does not have that high demand to BKK KUL CGK SIN ORD SGN to warrant a new service. SQ is better off focusing its US East coast presence in the NYC and hopefully soon the higher yielding IAD marketplace.

UA895/896, before UA ended the HKG-SIN tags, actually carry a fair amount of ORD-SIN traffic. On the other hand, though, non-stop ORD-SIN can only be flew by A359ULR. ORD premium demand is just not quite as big as NYC (But then, not much is).

As for Hainan Airlines overall - it has to do with China's "One route, one airline" policy anyway. Hence you see all these random P2P flights, especially to US. Better get the route authority, just fly them low frequency (Like how HU is doing to the two aforementioned route at 2/wk), then not getting to fly the route once somebody else start flying it.

CTU-ORD seems reasonable. SZX-VIE less so. VIE only got a HKG flight relatively recently, I can't think of many people needing to go from Shenzhen to Vienna!

I would say it's mainly a tourism route (Come on...Chinese tourists are everywhere anyway, except South Korea and Taiwan ). On the other hand, it's 2/wk, so it's not like they will lose that much money.

CHI2DFW wrote:

nmdrdh787 wrote:

CTU-ORD fills a hole ORD has, but not the largest Asian one (which escapes me right now).

ORD-ICN on UA would be nice.
ORD-SIN on SQ would be nice.
ORD-KIX would be nice, but not likely.
ORD-MNL via YVR by PR has been rumored on this forum, but seems like a money draining route.

Other than that, ORD seems well covered to Asia, probably overcovered to China.

ICN - No. OZ already covered it and not enough demand for 2 *A flights.
SIN - Once those A359ULR comes in, maybe.
KIX - Doubtful. It's just not a big market, even though Osaka area has a ton of people.
MNL - Is there any MNL long-haul that can make money anyway? (On the other hand, come on, we all know MNL-MIA will come first).

Beat me to the punch, but I will add some personal insights:

ICN pax and yield has stagnated. May have changed.
SIN I 100% agree on.
KIX has pax but the yield is trash. good route for an Asian LCC.
MNL is a good route but other carriers are coming, numbers make sense. Also, with right plane it can be a nonstop, does that align with PR's strategy, who knows.

Asia/Oceania is a weird market for ORD because its either
1) The market has high pax but trash yields (MNL)
2) Market has high yield but little pax (example escapes me)
3) Market is served by ME3 (AMD for example)
4) Market is viable but out of range of current aircraft (SYD)

Leaning towards a Day 1 and Day 5 operation to ORD for HU.

What would be interesting to see if UA responds in any manner.

HNA are well behind on aircraft lease payments to fund group acquisitions.

https://airfinancejournal.com/articles/ ... e-payments

It’s technically in default and significantly past the due date,” the person says, adding: “Airlines generate a lot of cash. All these airlines seem to be fine, according to my sources. It’s just the parent is over-extended.”

BestWestern wrote:

HNA are well behind on aircraft lease payments to fund group acquisitions.

https://airfinancejournal.com/articles/ ... e-payments

It’s technically in default and significantly past the due date,” the person says, adding: “Airlines generate a lot of cash. All these airlines seem to be fine, according to my sources. It’s just the parent is over-extended.”

To elaborate, HNA apparently is taking the cash generated at the HNA airlines and moving the money to fund other operations/acquisitions in the conglomerate.

Edit: only the mainland carriers are affected so far.