phluser
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Re: OAG Changes 11/26/2017: AA Adds CLT-BGR, DFW-OAK, ORD-CHS, PHX-AMA/OKC

Mon Nov 27, 2017 12:43 am

enilria wrote:
although perhaps they keep MSP to compete with ORD but I think UA or AA leave in that scenario.


DL could just replace FNT-MSP with FNT-DTW, which is shorter and enhances northeast connections. Currently, DL trying to sell a FNT to BOS ticket means connecting in ATL while UA/AA offer shorter connections through ORD. FNT-DTW is approximately the same distance as ABE-PHL. Also, aren't UA and AA trying to add where possible and not cut their ORD regional footprint?
 
cvgComair
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Re: OAG Changes 11/26/2017: AA Adds CLT-BGR, DFW-OAK, ORD-CHS, PHX-AMA/OKC

Mon Nov 27, 2017 12:47 am

lavalampluva wrote:
klm617 wrote:
The problem with Allegiant at FNT is that the service to Florida is less than daily and to secondary airports. So for those going to Disney SFB is less than desirable than MCO. What made Airtran successful is the fact that the service was daily and to the primary airports. I suspect that DL will now go all RJ by this time next year at FNT.


But that's how G4 operates as a whole, not just at FNT. I don't think that G4 has daily service anywhere, and they specialize in serving secondary tourist airports.

They have quite a few daily service routes, even some larger stations like BLI/CVG that see multiple frequencies per day on some routes. It just depends on the city and what demand it has.
 
michman
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Re: OAG Changes 11/26/2017: AA Adds CLT-BGR, DFW-OAK, ORD-CHS, PHX-AMA/OKC

Mon Nov 27, 2017 12:53 am

mtnwest1979 wrote:
lavalampluva wrote:
Bobloblaw wrote:
FNT-MSP is just 2 flights until June, then 3. They are increasing capacity a few weeks later is all and WN will still be in the market in May 2018.

Wasn't WN service from FNT primarily to Florida?


No, is/was 3x to MDW w/ a seasonal TPA and MCO.



Seems as if vast majority of AA changes are cuts. Very few adds with all of these.


When WN originally started at FNT, they had flights to BWI, MCO, TPA, and LAS. They later switched to primarily connecting pax through MDW.
 
michman
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Re: OAG Changes 11/26/2017: AA Adds CLT-BGR, DFW-OAK, ORD-CHS, PHX-AMA/OKC

Mon Nov 27, 2017 12:56 am

klm617 wrote:
lavalampluva wrote:
Bobloblaw wrote:
FNT-MSP is just 2 flights until June, then 3. They are increasing capacity a few weeks later is all and WN will still be in the market in May 2018.

Wasn't WN service from FNT primarily to Florida?


No it was to MDW they did not serve FNT to Florida as attractively as Airtran did.


As I noted above, the MDW flights did not come until after several years of running FNT - BWI/TPA/MCO/LAS flights. The MDW flights were pretty much a last gasp attempt by WN to make FNT work after originally focusing on leisure heavy point-to-point flying.

http://www.wmcactionnews5.com/story/209 ... -las-vegas
 
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Midwestindy
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Re: OAG Changes 11/26/2017: AA Adds CLT-BGR, DFW-OAK, ORD-CHS, PHX-AMA/OKC

Mon Nov 27, 2017 1:10 am

lavalampluva wrote:
klm617 wrote:


The problem with Allegiant at FNT is that the service to Florida is less than daily and to secondary airports. So for those going to Disney SFB is less than desirable than MCO. What made Airtran successful is the fact that the service was daily and to the primary airports. I suspect that DL will now go all RJ by this time next year at FNT.


But that's how G4 operates as a whole, not just at FNT. I don't think that G4 has daily service anywhere, and they specialize in serving secondary tourist airports.


BLI-LAS at peak is 3x daily, but runs 2x daily year-round.
A few Midwest airports have 1x-2x daily on at least 1 route

Plenty more go are 5x-6x weekly which is basically daily service
Status for 2019/2020: AAdvantage Platinum, Delta Gold, Southwest A-List
 
usairways85
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Re: OAG Changes 11/26/2017: AA Adds CLT-BGR, DFW-OAK, ORD-CHS, PHX-AMA/OKC

Mon Nov 27, 2017 1:27 am

enilria wrote:
AA PHL-ABE MAR 3>2
AA PHL-ALB MAR 6>5
AA PHL-AVP MAR 4>3
AA PHL-BOS MAR 11>10
AA PHL-BTV MAR 6>5
AA PHL-BUF MAR 6>5
AA PHL-BWI MAR 3>1.0
AA PHL-CAE MAR 3>2
AA PHL-CHO MAR 3>1.9
AA PHL-CVG MAR 6>5
AA PHL-DEN MAR 3>1.6
AA PHL-GSP MAR 4>3
AA PHL-IPT MAR 3>2
AA PHL-ISP MAR 3>2
AA PHL-LAS MAR 4>3
AA PHL-MDT MAR 6>5
AA PHL-MKE MAR 5>3
AA PHL-MSP MAR 4>1.8
AA PHL-ORD MAR 8>7
AA PHL-PBI MAR 3>4
*AA PHL-PDX JUN 0>0.8 JUL 0>1.0 AUG 0>1.0
AA PHL-PHF MAR 3>2
AA PHL-PWM MAR 6>5
AA PHL-RDU MAR 8>6
AA PHL-RSW MAR 3>5
AA PHL-SAN MAR 3>1.9
AA PHL-SCE MAR 5>4
AA PHL-SDF MAR 3>1.8
AA PHL-SEA MAR 4>1.0
AA PHL-SFO MAR 5>3
*AA PHL-SLC JUN 0>0.8 JUL 0>1.0 AUG 0>1.0
AA PHL-STL MAR 5>4
AA PHL-SWF MAR 3>2
*AA PHL-YQB JUN 0>0.8 JUL 0>1.0 AUG 0>1.0
AA PHL-YUL MAR 6>4

I believe SLC is year round now and PDX is just a seasonal resumption. Lots of AA frequency cuts, but based on my random check below, there are a number of gauge changes.

Random check on 3/26
PHL-MSP 2x 319
PHL-STL 1x 319, 1x 145, 2x 175
PHL-SDF 2x 175 (previously mostly 50 seaters)
PHL-RDU 4x 190, 1x 738, 1x 319 (probably first time in a long time this route is all mainline)
PHL-CVG 2x CR9, 1x 175, 1x CR7, 1x CRJ
PHL-MKE 2x 175, 1x 145 (previously all AWI CRJ's)
PHL-ALB 4x 175, 1x 145
PHL-ORD Last flight at 5:40...Terrible for business travelers considering AA has loyal fliers on both ends.
PHL-DEN 1x 738 (Frequency cut and capacity cut)
 
drdisque
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Re: OAG Changes 11/26/2017: AA Adds CLT-BGR, DFW-OAK, ORD-CHS, PHX-AMA/OKC

Mon Nov 27, 2017 1:52 am

phluser wrote:
enilria wrote:
although perhaps they keep MSP to compete with ORD but I think UA or AA leave in that scenario.


DL could just replace FNT-MSP with FNT-DTW, which is shorter and enhances northeast connections. Currently, DL trying to sell a FNT to BOS ticket means connecting in ATL while UA/AA offer shorter connections through ORD. FNT-DTW is approximately the same distance as ABE-PHL. Also, aren't UA and AA trying to add where possible and not cut their ORD regional footprint?


NW and later DL flew FNT-DTW for decades. They decided that FNT-DTW was mainly serving passengers who would fly nonstop anyway out of DTW at higher prices, thusly they added a second and later third MSP flight and up gauged the ATL service. Seemingly this change has worked as they've now kept it for about 5+ years. It didn't work for TOL, where DL left. The strategy has also worked for RST (although they did retain token RST-MSP service when they added RST-DTW and RST-ATL).

DL is indeed at a functional disadvantage flying East from FNT. They've tried FNT-LGA and it failed hard. I think they figure that they're OK with any eastbound traffic they lose to AA and UA over ORD because they'll still capture a lot of those passengers at DTW.

If an FNT eastbound flight were to work, UA's FNT-EWR that they tried last year should have been it, but it apparently didn't work.

FNT isn't as low-yielding as its reputation suggests, but most of its flows, even for business, are to the South and West.
 
lavalampluva
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Re: OAG Changes 11/26/2017: AA Adds CLT-BGR, DFW-OAK, ORD-CHS, PHX-AMA/OKC

Mon Nov 27, 2017 3:09 am

phluser wrote:
enilria wrote:
although perhaps they keep MSP to compete with ORD but I think UA or AA leave in that scenario.


DL could just replace FNT-MSP with FNT-DTW, which is shorter and enhances northeast connections. Currently, DL trying to sell a FNT to BOS ticket means connecting in ATL while UA/AA offer shorter connections through ORD. FNT-DTW is approximately the same distance as ABE-PHL. Also, aren't UA and AA trying to add where possible and not cut their ORD regional footprint?
FNT to DTW is only around an hour by car. That might be part of the reason that route was dropped?
Remind me to send a thank you note to Mr. Boeing.
 
Flighty
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Re: OAG Changes 11/26/2017: AA Adds CLT-BGR, DFW-OAK, ORD-CHS, PHX-AMA/OKC

Mon Nov 27, 2017 3:12 am

FNT-DTW doesn't make a lot of sense. Driving FNT-DTW is kind of superior to an air service. If you want to go FNT-BOS, no problem. Drive to DTW and fly DTW-BOS. It is other connections that DTW doesn't do well where flying from FNT may be justified.
 
Chuska
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Re: OAG Changes 11/26/2017: AA Adds CLT-BGR, DFW-OAK, ORD-CHS, PHX-AMA/OKC

Mon Nov 27, 2017 3:52 am

In response to WN at FNT, yes WN did serve FNT from RSW, MCO, and TPA plus BWI and LAS. On April 12, 2016 all of those markets were dropped and three flights per day to MDW were added. Possibly the largest complete transformation I've ever seen a carrier do at a city.
 
jfritz
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Re: OAG Changes 11/26/2017: AA Adds CLT-BGR, DFW-OAK, ORD-CHS, PHX-AMA/OKC

Mon Nov 27, 2017 4:16 am

Anyone know if the AA routes added out of PHX are mainline or are they regional? If so, what regional got it?
 
OKCDCA
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Re: OAG Changes 11/26/2017: AA Adds CLT-BGR, DFW-OAK, ORD-CHS, PHX-AMA/OKC

Mon Nov 27, 2017 4:42 am

jfritz wrote:
Anyone know if the AA routes added out of PHX are mainline or are they regional? If so, what regional got it?


Both are showing Mesa CR9's
 
commavia
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Re: OAG Changes 11/26/2017: AA Adds CLT-BGR, DFW-OAK, ORD-CHS, PHX-AMA/OKC

Mon Nov 27, 2017 9:25 am

CIDFlyer wrote:
nice adds by AA to connect more dots.


:checkmark:

It is, indeed, great to see AA restoring former (in several cases longstanding) routes like DFW-OAK, LGA-TVC and LGA-PWM, and connecting several extremely logical dots with routes like PHX-AMA and PHX-OKC. I'm also happy to see lots of seasonal/weekend utilization flying next year in markets that have long made lots of sense - some new and some resumptions - like DFW-AVL, DFW-MYR, DFW-ILM, ORD-MYR, ORD-BGR, LAX-FLG and LAX-BZN. I hope to see more of this type of opportunistic weekend flying - markets like ORD-PWM, ORD-PNS, and maybe ORD-SAV and DFW-FLG, come to mind - in the future.

Regarding LAX-FLG - it's a CRJ700, which should help, but interestingly the turn in FLG is in the mid-afternoon, which is to say, at the peak heat of the day. I wonder if there will be any operational issues. And with respect to LAX-BZN - just as suspected. LAX-BZN is AA's first foray into Montana from the western U.S. (at least post-merger) and like other such routes, I suspect it will do well, and hopefully will be followed by additional routes from LAX and/or PHX to the Mountain West.

rajincajun01 wrote:
AA continues to cut DEN. MIA was downgraded to a A319 on one of it’s daily flights as well. How much deeper will the cuts go?


I guess it probably shouldn't be that surprising, given that (1) DEN is probably one of the most competitive pricing environments of any major U.S. metro market right now, (2) AA's traffic at DEN is largely DEN-destined and (3) AA, obviously, lacks the diversity of (often relatively higher-yielding) connecting flows from smaller Mountain West markets that help the economics of United's flights.

Rdh3e wrote:
It looks like AA basically had their summer schedule published and this brings it down. They are still up about 10% year on year, but that is obscured by the fact that these show up as reductions.


No, no, no. AA is clearly giving up on Chicago, folding its hub and leaving. All signs clearly point in that direction. :roll: :lol:

mtnwest1979 wrote:
Seems as if vast majority of AA changes are cuts. Very few adds with all of these.


As already mentioned, a decent amount of the cuts are accompanied by upgauging.

Jshank83 wrote:
BNA doesn't have one on AA to PHX either. That one really surprised me.

Vctony wrote:
AA's next adds from PHX are probably COS and TUL with an outside shot of BNA, MSY, and RDU. The problem with CVG (as well as BNA, MSY, and RDU) is that they would require mainline to start. AA seems to like to start its new routes from PHX on regional jets and seems to be tweaking its regional jet / mainline mix on a lot of routes.


I agree that COS, BNA, MSY and RDU all seem like obvious adds for PHX. I suspect all four of these routes may well launch in due time - the first likely with a CRJ700 and the rest with A319s. Based on the way the last three routes could be scheduled, AA may try and fit PHX flights in between or around existing flights between those three markets and LAX to enhance overall schedule connectivity to/from the western U.S.
 
klm617
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Re: OAG Changes 11/26/2017: AA Adds CLT-BGR, DFW-OAK, ORD-CHS, PHX-AMA/OKC

Mon Nov 27, 2017 12:07 pm

Flighty wrote:
FNT-DTW doesn't make a lot of sense. Driving FNT-DTW is kind of superior to an air service. If you want to go FNT-BOS, no problem. Drive to DTW and fly DTW-BOS. It is other connections that DTW doesn't do well where flying from FNT may be justified.


Yes that's all well and good but you are not seeing the bigger picture. What if I live north of FNT then it becomes a longer drove and with traffic I'd say more like 1:30 minutes to 1:45 minutes. Them there is the parking that is half as much as DTW and the ease at which you can go through security at FNT over DTW. As soon as Airtran left FNT the DL DTW-FNT were dropped and effective there are no more one stop connections for people in the FNT area that need to go east they are stuck driving to Detroit. Don't be fooled DL understands that as the competition get's less it's going to reduce services because it doesn't have to be attractove in the market anymore because of lack of choice. Granted the biggest users of Flint are looking for cheap flights to Florida and Delta say if you want that you can connect because we no longer need to cater to that traveler because you have no options in the market any more.
the truth does matter, guys. too bad it's often quite subjective. the truth is beyond the mere facts and figures. it's beyond good and bad, right and wrong...
 
allegiantflyer
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Re: OAG Changes 11/26/2017: AA Adds CLT-BGR, DFW-OAK, ORD-CHS, PHX-AMA/OKC

Mon Nov 27, 2017 12:16 pm

Wow great adds in PHX for AA.

But needless to say 4x daily to IND seems like a lot
 
clrd4t8koff
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Re: OAG Changes 11/26/2017: AA Adds CLT-BGR, DFW-OAK, ORD-CHS, PHX-AMA/OKC

Mon Nov 27, 2017 12:49 pm

axiom wrote:
What evidence do you have of that?

TPA and MCO are overlapping markets, but I would deduce that the opposite has happened historically, and that CM has been disciplined with TPA capacity so as to -not- dump cheap MCO-alternate fares in the market.

TPA is significantly larger and more diverse than TPA as a regional economy, and has a significant ethic population base in its own right. Not sure why a once daily toward Central/South America would surprise anyone. Seems about right for a market that is building new/expanded internatoonal links.


What source are you using when comparing the size of TPA to MCO? Because the airlines typically look at the CSA, and that data shows Orlando is much larger:

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Combine ... ical_Areas
 
michman
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Re: OAG Changes 11/26/2017: AA Adds CLT-BGR, DFW-OAK, ORD-CHS, PHX-AMA/OKC

Mon Nov 27, 2017 12:53 pm

seatback wrote:
Indy gets four dailies from PHX but CVG can't get even one on AA?


People really need to stop hyperventilating over this. It just a seasonal bump-up for spring training/spring break travel. After March, it goes back down to two flights a day. Even during the schedule bump-up in March, it's not 4 flights every day.
 
Tradewinds71
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Re: OAG Changes 11/26/2017: AA Adds CLT-BGR, DFW-OAK, ORD-CHS, PHX-AMA/OKC

Mon Nov 27, 2017 1:18 pm

clrd4t8koff wrote:
axiom wrote:
What evidence do you have of that?

TPA and MCO are overlapping markets, but I would deduce that the opposite has happened historically, and that CM has been disciplined with TPA capacity so as to -not- dump cheap MCO-alternate fares in the market.

TPA is significantly larger and more diverse than TPA as a regional economy, and has a significant ethic population base in its own right. Not sure why a once daily toward Central/South America would surprise anyone. Seems about right for a market that is building new/expanded internatoonal links.


What source are you using when comparing the size of TPA to MCO? Because the airlines typically look at the CSA, and that data shows Orlando is much larger:

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Combine ... ical_Areas


Interesting that there's not a CSA entry for Tampa Bay. MSA stats place Tampa at #18, Orlando at #26 per Wikipedia. I have to agree with other comments that CM's expansion in TPA is not surprising and not unwarranted.
 
axiom
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Re: OAG Changes 11/26/2017: AA Adds CLT-BGR, DFW-OAK, ORD-CHS, PHX-AMA/OKC

Mon Nov 27, 2017 3:22 pm

clrd4t8koff wrote:
axiom wrote:
What evidence do you have of that?

TPA and MCO are overlapping markets, but I would deduce that the opposite has happened historically, and that CM has been disciplined with TPA capacity so as to -not- dump cheap MCO-alternate fares in the market.

TPA is significantly larger and more diverse than TPA as a regional economy, and has a significant ethic population base in its own right. Not sure why a once daily toward Central/South America would surprise anyone. Seems about right for a market that is building new/expanded internatoonal links.


What source are you using when comparing the size of TPA to MCO? Because the airlines typically look at the CSA, and that data shows Orlando is much larger:

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Combine ... ical_Areas


I am a professional regional economic declopment researcher. You can't compare a Combined Statistical Area with a Metropolitan area. Apples to oranges. The Tampa Bay region is often defined as both the Tampa-St Pete MSA and the Sarasota-Bradenton MSA, and at times also includes the Lakeland MSA and other areas. By these latter measures, the Tampa market is about 40% larger.

While this may seem like splitting hairs, or a matter of perspective, you will not find a single Floridian or economic demographer who would argue that Orlando is a larger region than Tampa.
 
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enilria
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Re: OAG Changes 11/26/2017: AA Adds CLT-BGR, DFW-OAK, ORD-CHS, PHX-AMA/OKC

Mon Nov 27, 2017 3:55 pm

Flighty wrote:
A substantial set of adds from American Airlines. Enilria, thanks for the update. And I just figured out what your screen name means. :D

LOL. Takes people some time. :)
11725Flyer wrote:
Thanks, as usual, enilria!

:)
OKCDCA wrote:
Thanks enilria!

:)
AWACSooner wrote:
enilria wrote:
**AA PHX-OKC APR 0>0.9 MAY 0>1.0 JUN 0>1.0 JUL 0>1.0 AUG 0>1.0

AWWWWWWWWWRIGHT!

Yes, I know that it's just as easy to connect via DFW and LAX to the west on AA, but this one was a long time coming, and gives added competition to WN.

PHX-OKC has come and gone so many times for HP/US/AA. On the surface it should be an obvious route. I think, and I have not researched this, that the problem must be the timing structure of the PHX banks. OKC is probably at a geographic distance that causes it not to connect well without wasting a lot of aircraft time. That could hurt its performance, because aside from that possibility, I don't understand why it has not been a long term route.
phluser wrote:
DL could just replace FNT-MSP with FNT-DTW, which is shorter and enhances northeast connections.

DL has made a clear choice not to fly intra-city routes like that any more. I don't think that'll come back. TOL was basically the same situation. I think DL is smart not to fly routes a taxi could be used for.
michman wrote:
When WN originally started at FNT, they had flights to BWI, MCO, TPA, and LAS. They later switched to primarily connecting pax through MDW.

If you look at DB1B, though, the passengers have always been going to Florida and Vegas no matter what the routes WN/FL flew were. They wanted FNT-BWI to carry NE, but it just carried Florida for the most part.

6 of the top 10 are Florida or Vegas and the rest are the places with non-stops which are probably largely double ticketed connects. For example, I doubt ATL is really 50% bigger than MCO as an O&D. It's probably double-ticketing to somewhere that's cheaper as two tickets.
 
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enilria
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Re: OAG Changes 11/26/2017: AA Adds CLT-BGR, DFW-OAK, ORD-CHS, PHX-AMA/OKC

Mon Nov 27, 2017 4:00 pm

commavia wrote:
rajincajun01 wrote:
AA continues to cut DEN. MIA was downgraded to a A319 on one of it’s daily flights as well. How much deeper will the cuts go?


I guess it probably shouldn't be that surprising, given that (1) DEN is probably one of the most competitive pricing environments of any major U.S. metro market right now, (2) AA's traffic at DEN is largely DEN-destined and (3) AA, obviously, lacks the diversity of (often relatively higher-yielding) connecting flows from smaller Mountain West markets that help the economics of United's flights.

I think MIA is "struggling" for AA. I put that in quotes because it probably still has big profits, but I think it is much worse than it used to be and the hurricanes were probably another kick. The combination of CLT's strength in the combined network and the fare war at FLL that keeps growing have destabilized MIA in a lot of non-traditional markets like DEN.
 
clrd4t8koff
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Re: OAG Changes 11/26/2017: AA Adds CLT-BGR, DFW-OAK, ORD-CHS, PHX-AMA/OKC

Mon Nov 27, 2017 6:17 pm

axiom wrote:
clrd4t8koff wrote:
axiom wrote:
What evidence do you have of that?

TPA and MCO are overlapping markets, but I would deduce that the opposite has happened historically, and that CM has been disciplined with TPA capacity so as to -not- dump cheap MCO-alternate fares in the market.

TPA is significantly larger and more diverse than TPA as a regional economy, and has a significant ethic population base in its own right. Not sure why a once daily toward Central/South America would surprise anyone. Seems about right for a market that is building new/expanded internatoonal links.


What source are you using when comparing the size of TPA to MCO? Because the airlines typically look at the CSA, and that data shows Orlando is much larger:

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Combine ... ical_Areas


I am a professional regional economic declopment researcher. You can't compare a Combined Statistical Area with a Metropolitan area. Apples to oranges. The Tampa Bay region is often defined as both the Tampa-St Pete MSA and the Sarasota-Bradenton MSA, and at times also includes the Lakeland MSA and other areas. By these latter measures, the Tampa market is about 40% larger.

While this may seem like splitting hairs, or a matter of perspective, you will not find a single Floridian or economic demographer who would argue that Orlando is a larger region than Tampa.


I'm certainly not going to challenge you here, I was merely quoting a source. From what I've read airlines typically use CSA's when evaluating and planning services vs. MSA's. But if you have a source that contradicts that I'd be curious to see it.
 
FSDan
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Re: OAG Changes 11/26/2017: AA Adds CLT-BGR, DFW-OAK, ORD-CHS, PHX-AMA/OKC

Mon Nov 27, 2017 6:38 pm

enilria wrote:
PHX-OKC has come and gone so many times for HP/US/AA. On the surface it should be an obvious route. I think, and I have not researched this, that the problem must be the timing structure of the PHX banks. OKC is probably at a geographic distance that causes it not to connect well without wasting a lot of aircraft time. That could hurt its performance, because aside from that possibility, I don't understand why it has not been a long term route.


OKC is pretty much the same distance from PHX as SAT and AUS, and those two appear to perform fine. I think the bigger problem may have been that US was never a major player in OKC. AA, on the other hand, has longstanding strength in that market, and should do better with OKC point of sale. In that regard, PHX-OKC is a similar add to the relatively recent PHX-LBB and PHX-MAF routes. All are markets where AA has traditionally had a strong position due to the proximity of the DFW hub, and connecting those spokes to PHX provides additional options for their FF base in those cities.
This is my signature until I think of a better one.
 
99cents
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Re: OAG Changes 11/26/2017: AA Adds CLT-BGR, DFW-OAK, ORD-CHS, PHX-AMA/OKC

Mon Nov 27, 2017 6:47 pm

I'd really put the drive from FNT to DTW closer to 75 minutes. That said, LAN is really the interesting one of the bunch. Lansing has lost out of many things being centrally located. No Need for the National Weather Service to have radar there for example. FNT and GRR are 45 minute drives. DTW about 90 minutes.
 
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enilria
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Re: OAG Changes 11/26/2017: AA Adds CLT-BGR, DFW-OAK, ORD-CHS, PHX-AMA/OKC

Mon Nov 27, 2017 7:03 pm

FSDan wrote:
enilria wrote:
PHX-OKC has come and gone so many times for HP/US/AA. On the surface it should be an obvious route. I think, and I have not researched this, that the problem must be the timing structure of the PHX banks. OKC is probably at a geographic distance that causes it not to connect well without wasting a lot of aircraft time. That could hurt its performance, because aside from that possibility, I don't understand why it has not been a long term route.


OKC is pretty much the same distance from PHX as SAT and AUS, and those two appear to perform fine. I think the bigger problem may have been that US was never a major player in OKC. AA, on the other hand, has longstanding strength in that market, and should do better with OKC point of sale. In that regard, PHX-OKC is a similar add to the relatively recent PHX-LBB and PHX-MAF routes. All are markets where AA has traditionally had a strong position due to the proximity of the DFW hub, and connecting those spokes to PHX provides additional options for their FF base in those cities.

Well, if my blind guess about the connecting structure is true, it would affect markets that are more heavily connecting more severely. US was no market leader in SAT either. AUS and SAT are about twice the size of OKC/TUL in terms of local market to PHX. That means that the connecting structure is much more important. They can probably afford to bring SAT/AUS back into a "wrong-way" bank because there is enough local traffic to limit the pain. Again, I'm speculating, but I don't see why OKC/TUL have never worked. There are much smaller markets they make work. I think it has to be the hub timing. The hub is going to be timed for where there are the greatest number of similar distance cities. The West side is pretty easy for that. Routes that fall outside that require some trickery or just poorly connect. The "trickery" is often having planes continue on to another hub in order to solve timing problems, but the Ops side of the airlines have heavily pressured to eliminate those because they really wreck the rest of the network in irregular ops.
 
ckfred
Posts: 5148
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Re: OAG Changes 11/26/2017: AA Adds CLT-BGR, DFW-OAK, ORD-CHS, PHX-AMA/OKC

Mon Nov 27, 2017 8:22 pm

Some of the changes with AA could be reductions in frequency, but the seat count might less than the loss of any given aircraft on the route. I just got notified of a schedule change for ORD-IAH-ORD during spring break. When I booked the trip a few weeks ago, it was a mix of Envoy and SkyWest CRJ700s both ways. Now, it's 1 Envoy CRJ700, 2 Envoy Embrear 175s, and a 738. No change in frequency, but a substantial increase in seats.

So, for any route that loses a frequency, we could very well see aircraft swaps to larger aircraft on the remaining flights.
 
MDW22L31C
Posts: 231
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Re: OAG Changes 11/26/2017: AA Adds CLT-BGR, DFW-OAK, ORD-CHS, PHX-AMA/OKC

Mon Nov 27, 2017 8:26 pm

Since AA is adding west coast service one that should be added is ORD-ONT on a seasonal basis.
 
OKCDCA
Posts: 225
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Re: OAG Changes 11/26/2017: AA Adds CLT-BGR, DFW-OAK, ORD-CHS, PHX-AMA/OKC

Mon Nov 27, 2017 8:56 pm

enilria wrote:
FSDan wrote:
enilria wrote:
PHX-OKC has come and gone so many times for HP/US/AA. On the surface it should be an obvious route. I think, and I have not researched this, that the problem must be the timing structure of the PHX banks. OKC is probably at a geographic distance that causes it not to connect well without wasting a lot of aircraft time. That could hurt its performance, because aside from that possibility, I don't understand why it has not been a long term route.


OKC is pretty much the same distance from PHX as SAT and AUS, and those two appear to perform fine. I think the bigger problem may have been that US was never a major player in OKC. AA, on the other hand, has longstanding strength in that market, and should do better with OKC point of sale. In that regard, PHX-OKC is a similar add to the relatively recent PHX-LBB and PHX-MAF routes. All are markets where AA has traditionally had a strong position due to the proximity of the DFW hub, and connecting those spokes to PHX provides additional options for their FF base in those cities.

Well, if my blind guess about the connecting structure is true, it would affect markets that are more heavily connecting more severely. US was no market leader in SAT either. AUS and SAT are about twice the size of OKC/TUL in terms of local market to PHX. That means that the connecting structure is much more important. They can probably afford to bring SAT/AUS back into a "wrong-way" bank because there is enough local traffic to limit the pain. Again, I'm speculating, but I don't see why OKC/TUL have never worked. There are much smaller markets they make work. I think it has to be the hub timing. The hub is going to be timed for where there are the greatest number of similar distance cities. The West side is pretty easy for that. Routes that fall outside that require some trickery or just poorly connect. The "trickery" is often having planes continue on to another hub in order to solve timing problems, but the Ops side of the airlines have heavily pressured to eliminate those because they really wreck the rest of the network in irregular ops.


After doing some quick searches on AA's website, it looks like the OKC-PHX leg matches up well with connections to pretty much all the major west coast destinations and HNL which will be a nice afternoon option if you don't want to go through DFW to go west. I am concerned about the 8:30 AM departure time on the PHX-OKC leg though, looks like a lot of really tight connecting times for the first bank of flights into PHX.

I think the biggest problem HP/US had with the route was/is WN's dominance on the route. I don't think HP operated the route that long before the US merger so they didn't really have a chance to build a following then US pulled the plug on the route fairly soon after the merger.

Growing up in OKC, any time we went to the west coast, it was on WN through PHX and those flights were always full. WN has quite a loyal following in OKC but so does AA and hopefully the large AA FF base in OKC will make this one work.
 
FSDan
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Re: OAG Changes 11/26/2017: AA Adds CLT-BGR, DFW-OAK, ORD-CHS, PHX-AMA/OKC

Mon Nov 27, 2017 9:01 pm

MDW22L31C wrote:
Since AA is adding west coast service one that should be added is ORD-ONT on a seasonal basis.


They already fly ORD-ONT in the summer. Started this year.
This is my signature until I think of a better one.
 
phxsanslcpdx
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Re: OAG Changes 11/26/2017: AA Adds CLT-BGR, DFW-OAK, ORD-CHS, PHX-AMA/OKC

Mon Nov 27, 2017 9:08 pm

enilria wrote:
FSDan wrote:
OKC is pretty much the same distance from PHX as SAT and AUS, and those two appear to perform fine. I think the bigger problem may have been that US was never a major player in OKC. AA, on the other hand, has longstanding strength in that market, and should do better with OKC point of sale. In that regard, PHX-OKC is a similar add to the relatively recent PHX-LBB and PHX-MAF routes. All are markets where AA has traditionally had a strong position due to the proximity of the DFW hub, and connecting those spokes to PHX provides additional options for their FF base in those cities.

Well, if my blind guess about the connecting structure is true, it would affect markets that are more heavily connecting more severely. US was no market leader in SAT either. AUS and SAT are about twice the size of OKC/TUL in terms of local market to PHX. That means that the connecting structure is much more important. They can probably afford to bring SAT/AUS back into a "wrong-way" bank because there is enough local traffic to limit the pain. Again, I'm speculating, but I don't see why OKC/TUL have never worked. There are much smaller markets they make work. I think it has to be the hub timing. The hub is going to be timed for where there are the greatest number of similar distance cities. The West side is pretty easy for that. Routes that fall outside that require some trickery or just poorly connect. The "trickery" is often having planes continue on to another hub in order to solve timing problems, but the Ops side of the airlines have heavily pressured to eliminate those because they really wreck the rest of the network in irregular ops.


Another important point is competition. SAT, AUS, and MCI can all sustain nonstop service to PHX on both HP/US/AA and Southwest. AMA, LBB, and MAF seem able to support nonstop service to PHX when AA has the route to themselves. OKC, TUL, and ICT are all in-between-size markets, that can certainly sustain one nonstop carrier, but two is a stretch. HP/US/AA repeatedly made strategic decisions not to challenge/continue challenging Southwest in these markets. Now they're testing the waters in OKC again--I hope it's successful, and I think that OKC and TUL probably can sustain nonstop PHX service from both carriers (ICT probably not). But if WN decides a price war is called for on OKC-PHX, my guess is that AA will withdraw again.

The coexistence of the WN and AA hubs in PHX is a somewhat fragile balance, with both airlines making low but acceptable profits at PHX. For every metro that WN has to itself out of PHX (OKC 'til now, Tulsa, Wichita, Buffalo, Louisville, Nashville, New Orleans, Omaha, Raleigh/Durham, seasonal Little Rock), I think AA could certainly make them work if they had the markets to themselves. The decision of whether or not to challenge WN, with likely yield dilution and possible WN retaliation, is trickier. If yields at OKC and DSM (WN starts service in January) hold up, then I'd expect AA to seriously look at TUL and RDU, at least, in the next couple years.
 
axiom
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Re: OAG Changes 11/26/2017: AA Adds CLT-BGR, DFW-OAK, ORD-CHS, PHX-AMA/OKC

Mon Nov 27, 2017 9:10 pm

clrd4t8koff wrote:
axiom wrote:
clrd4t8koff wrote:

What source are you using when comparing the size of TPA to MCO? Because the airlines typically look at the CSA, and that data shows Orlando is much larger:

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Combine ... ical_Areas


I am a professional regional economic declopment researcher. You can't compare a Combined Statistical Area with a Metropolitan area. Apples to oranges. The Tampa Bay region is often defined as both the Tampa-St Pete MSA and the Sarasota-Bradenton MSA, and at times also includes the Lakeland MSA and other areas. By these latter measures, the Tampa market is about 40% larger.

While this may seem like splitting hairs, or a matter of perspective, you will not find a single Floridian or economic demographer who would argue that Orlando is a larger region than Tampa.


I'm certainly not going to challenge you here, I was merely quoting a source. From what I've read airlines typically use CSA's when evaluating and planning services vs. MSA's. But if you have a source that contradicts that I'd be curious to see it.


There is no TPA CSA, so by that standard there is no market to compare ;-)

The truth is, the regional economic data that airline ause is far more nuanced -- and a lot of it is properiatary. There are a lot of ways to run numbers. No doubt the TPA market is larger and more diversified from an overall economic point of view, but MCO is higher volume and faster growing from an air service development perspective.
 
axiom
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Re: OAG Changes 11/26/2017: AA Adds CLT-BGR, DFW-OAK, ORD-CHS, PHX-AMA/OKC

Mon Nov 27, 2017 10:28 pm

Double post.
 
grbauc
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Re: OAG Changes 11/26/2017: AA Adds CLT-BGR, DFW-OAK, ORD-CHS, PHX-AMA/OKC

Mon Nov 27, 2017 11:11 pm

psa1011 wrote:
wedgetail737 wrote:
**AA DFW-OAK APR 0>0.9 MAY 0>1.0 JUN 0>1.0 JUL 0>1.0 AUG 0>1.0

OAK finally getting some AA love with a restart of DFW-OAK service. My guess is the new flight is with a single A319. Gosh! I remember AA have 4 to 5 nonstop/direct flights daily out of OAK using Maddogs and 727-200's.


It looks like only First Class is available on these new flights for some reason.


They also Didn't have PHX has a option and a much bigger LAX.
 
jplatts
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Re: OAG Changes 11/26/2017: AA Adds CLT-BGR, DFW-OAK, ORD-CHS, PHX-AMA/OKC

Mon Nov 27, 2017 11:16 pm

phxsanslcpdx wrote:
enilria wrote:
FSDan wrote:
OKC is pretty much the same distance from PHX as SAT and AUS, and those two appear to perform fine. I think the bigger problem may have been that US was never a major player in OKC. AA, on the other hand, has longstanding strength in that market, and should do better with OKC point of sale. In that regard, PHX-OKC is a similar add to the relatively recent PHX-LBB and PHX-MAF routes. All are markets where AA has traditionally had a strong position due to the proximity of the DFW hub, and connecting those spokes to PHX provides additional options for their FF base in those cities.

Well, if my blind guess about the connecting structure is true, it would affect markets that are more heavily connecting more severely. US was no market leader in SAT either. AUS and SAT are about twice the size of OKC/TUL in terms of local market to PHX. That means that the connecting structure is much more important. They can probably afford to bring SAT/AUS back into a "wrong-way" bank because there is enough local traffic to limit the pain. Again, I'm speculating, but I don't see why OKC/TUL have never worked. There are much smaller markets they make work. I think it has to be the hub timing. The hub is going to be timed for where there are the greatest number of similar distance cities. The West side is pretty easy for that. Routes that fall outside that require some trickery or just poorly connect. The "trickery" is often having planes continue on to another hub in order to solve timing problems, but the Ops side of the airlines have heavily pressured to eliminate those because they really wreck the rest of the network in irregular ops.


Another important point is competition. SAT, AUS, and MCI can all sustain nonstop service to PHX on both HP/US/AA and Southwest. AMA, LBB, and MAF seem able to support nonstop service to PHX when AA has the route to themselves. OKC, TUL, and ICT are all in-between-size markets, that can certainly sustain one nonstop carrier, but two is a stretch. HP/US/AA repeatedly made strategic decisions not to challenge/continue challenging Southwest in these markets. Now they're testing the waters in OKC again--I hope it's successful, and I think that OKC and TUL probably can sustain nonstop PHX service from both carriers (ICT probably not). But if WN decides a price war is called for on OKC-PHX, my guess is that AA will withdraw again.

The coexistence of the WN and AA hubs in PHX is a somewhat fragile balance, with both airlines making low but acceptable profits at PHX. For every metro that WN has to itself out of PHX (OKC 'til now, Tulsa, Wichita, Buffalo, Louisville, Nashville, New Orleans, Omaha, Raleigh/Durham, seasonal Little Rock), I think AA could certainly make them work if they had the markets to themselves. The decision of whether or not to challenge WN, with likely yield dilution and possible WN retaliation, is trickier. If yields at OKC and DSM (WN starts service in January) hold up, then I'd expect AA to seriously look at TUL and RDU, at least, in the next couple years.


Would American or Southwest ever add nonstop service to CVG from PHX? Even though Frontier does serve CVG nonstop from PHX on Mondays, Wednesdays, Fridays, and Saturdays and even though Delta had previously had nonstop service to CVG from PHX, there is currently no nonstop service from PHX to CVG on American, Southwest, or Delta.
 
jetmatt777
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Re: OAG Changes 11/26/2017: AA Adds CLT-BGR, DFW-OAK, ORD-CHS, PHX-AMA/OKC

Tue Nov 28, 2017 1:22 am

phxsanslcpdx wrote:
enilria wrote:
FSDan wrote:
OKC is pretty much the same distance from PHX as SAT and AUS, and those two appear to perform fine. I think the bigger problem may have been that US was never a major player in OKC. AA, on the other hand, has longstanding strength in that market, and should do better with OKC point of sale. In that regard, PHX-OKC is a similar add to the relatively recent PHX-LBB and PHX-MAF routes. All are markets where AA has traditionally had a strong position due to the proximity of the DFW hub, and connecting those spokes to PHX provides additional options for their FF base in those cities.

Well, if my blind guess about the connecting structure is true, it would affect markets that are more heavily connecting more severely. US was no market leader in SAT either. AUS and SAT are about twice the size of OKC/TUL in terms of local market to PHX. That means that the connecting structure is much more important. They can probably afford to bring SAT/AUS back into a "wrong-way" bank because there is enough local traffic to limit the pain. Again, I'm speculating, but I don't see why OKC/TUL have never worked. There are much smaller markets they make work. I think it has to be the hub timing. The hub is going to be timed for where there are the greatest number of similar distance cities. The West side is pretty easy for that. Routes that fall outside that require some trickery or just poorly connect. The "trickery" is often having planes continue on to another hub in order to solve timing problems, but the Ops side of the airlines have heavily pressured to eliminate those because they really wreck the rest of the network in irregular ops.


Another important point is competition. SAT, AUS, and MCI can all sustain nonstop service to PHX on both HP/US/AA and Southwest. AMA, LBB, and MAF seem able to support nonstop service to PHX when AA has the route to themselves. OKC, TUL, and ICT are all in-between-size markets, that can certainly sustain one nonstop carrier, but two is a stretch. HP/US/AA repeatedly made strategic decisions not to challenge/continue challenging Southwest in these markets. Now they're testing the waters in OKC again--I hope it's successful, and I think that OKC and TUL probably can sustain nonstop PHX service from both carriers (ICT probably not). But if WN decides a price war is called for on OKC-PHX, my guess is that AA will withdraw again.

The coexistence of the WN and AA hubs in PHX is a somewhat fragile balance, with both airlines making low but acceptable profits at PHX. For every metro that WN has to itself out of PHX (OKC 'til now, Tulsa, Wichita, Buffalo, Louisville, Nashville, New Orleans, Omaha, Raleigh/Durham, seasonal Little Rock), I think AA could certainly make them work if they had the markets to themselves. The decision of whether or not to challenge WN, with likely yield dilution and possible WN retaliation, is trickier. If yields at OKC and DSM (WN starts service in January) hold up, then I'd expect AA to seriously look at TUL and RDU, at least, in the next couple years.



I don't see WN throwing a fit over these AA adds. WN competes directly with AA on DFW/DAL and ORD/MDW already. WN likely understands that PHX-OKC isn't a market one would start a fare war on over 1 RJ that will likely only market to connecting traffic and some small O&D on the PHX end. Not worth trashing your own yields for 70 seats that will be west coast connections and O&D which is likely AA loyalists anyway.
Lighten up while you still can, don't even try to understand, just find a place to make your stand and take it easy
 
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enilria
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Re: OAG Changes 11/26/2017: AA Adds CLT-BGR, DFW-OAK, ORD-CHS, PHX-AMA/OKC

Tue Nov 28, 2017 4:06 pm

phxsanslcpdx wrote:
enilria wrote:
FSDan wrote:
OKC is pretty much the same distance from PHX as SAT and AUS, and those two appear to perform fine. I think the bigger problem may have been that US was never a major player in OKC. AA, on the other hand, has longstanding strength in that market, and should do better with OKC point of sale. In that regard, PHX-OKC is a similar add to the relatively recent PHX-LBB and PHX-MAF routes. All are markets where AA has traditionally had a strong position due to the proximity of the DFW hub, and connecting those spokes to PHX provides additional options for their FF base in those cities.

Well, if my blind guess about the connecting structure is true, it would affect markets that are more heavily connecting more severely. US was no market leader in SAT either. AUS and SAT are about twice the size of OKC/TUL in terms of local market to PHX. That means that the connecting structure is much more important. They can probably afford to bring SAT/AUS back into a "wrong-way" bank because there is enough local traffic to limit the pain. Again, I'm speculating, but I don't see why OKC/TUL have never worked. There are much smaller markets they make work. I think it has to be the hub timing. The hub is going to be timed for where there are the greatest number of similar distance cities. The West side is pretty easy for that. Routes that fall outside that require some trickery or just poorly connect. The "trickery" is often having planes continue on to another hub in order to solve timing problems, but the Ops side of the airlines have heavily pressured to eliminate those because they really wreck the rest of the network in irregular ops.


Another important point is competition. SAT, AUS, and MCI can all sustain nonstop service to PHX on both HP/US/AA and Southwest. AMA, LBB, and MAF seem able to support nonstop service to PHX when AA has the route to themselves. OKC, TUL, and ICT are all in-between-size markets, that can certainly sustain one nonstop carrier, but two is a stretch. HP/US/AA repeatedly made strategic decisions not to challenge/continue challenging Southwest in these markets. Now they're testing the waters in OKC again--I hope it's successful, and I think that OKC and TUL probably can sustain nonstop PHX service from both carriers (ICT probably not). But if WN decides a price war is called for on OKC-PHX, my guess is that AA will withdraw again.

The coexistence of the WN and AA hubs in PHX is a somewhat fragile balance, with both airlines making low but acceptable profits at PHX. For every metro that WN has to itself out of PHX (OKC 'til now, Tulsa, Wichita, Buffalo, Louisville, Nashville, New Orleans, Omaha, Raleigh/Durham, seasonal Little Rock), I think AA could certainly make them work if they had the markets to themselves. The decision of whether or not to challenge WN, with likely yield dilution and possible WN retaliation, is trickier. If yields at OKC and DSM (WN starts service in January) hold up, then I'd expect AA to seriously look at TUL and RDU, at least, in the next couple years.

That's certainly also a possibility.

I looked at the schedule. OKC does VERY tightly fit into the bank structure. It'll be early out of the bank at 0835 and back in very tightly at 1300. Plus, to even make that work they had to do a 30 minute turn on a CR9 in OKC. I don't think they can reliably pull off that schedule. They will break connections all the time. That is probably why this flight has had trouble working in the past.
 
Cubsrule
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Re: OAG Changes 11/26/2017: AA Adds CLT-BGR, DFW-OAK, ORD-CHS, PHX-AMA/OKC

Tue Nov 28, 2017 4:08 pm

enilria wrote:
phxsanslcpdx wrote:
enilria wrote:
Well, if my blind guess about the connecting structure is true, it would affect markets that are more heavily connecting more severely. US was no market leader in SAT either. AUS and SAT are about twice the size of OKC/TUL in terms of local market to PHX. That means that the connecting structure is much more important. They can probably afford to bring SAT/AUS back into a "wrong-way" bank because there is enough local traffic to limit the pain. Again, I'm speculating, but I don't see why OKC/TUL have never worked. There are much smaller markets they make work. I think it has to be the hub timing. The hub is going to be timed for where there are the greatest number of similar distance cities. The West side is pretty easy for that. Routes that fall outside that require some trickery or just poorly connect. The "trickery" is often having planes continue on to another hub in order to solve timing problems, but the Ops side of the airlines have heavily pressured to eliminate those because they really wreck the rest of the network in irregular ops.


Another important point is competition. SAT, AUS, and MCI can all sustain nonstop service to PHX on both HP/US/AA and Southwest. AMA, LBB, and MAF seem able to support nonstop service to PHX when AA has the route to themselves. OKC, TUL, and ICT are all in-between-size markets, that can certainly sustain one nonstop carrier, but two is a stretch. HP/US/AA repeatedly made strategic decisions not to challenge/continue challenging Southwest in these markets. Now they're testing the waters in OKC again--I hope it's successful, and I think that OKC and TUL probably can sustain nonstop PHX service from both carriers (ICT probably not). But if WN decides a price war is called for on OKC-PHX, my guess is that AA will withdraw again.

The coexistence of the WN and AA hubs in PHX is a somewhat fragile balance, with both airlines making low but acceptable profits at PHX. For every metro that WN has to itself out of PHX (OKC 'til now, Tulsa, Wichita, Buffalo, Louisville, Nashville, New Orleans, Omaha, Raleigh/Durham, seasonal Little Rock), I think AA could certainly make them work if they had the markets to themselves. The decision of whether or not to challenge WN, with likely yield dilution and possible WN retaliation, is trickier. If yields at OKC and DSM (WN starts service in January) hold up, then I'd expect AA to seriously look at TUL and RDU, at least, in the next couple years.

That's certainly also a possibility.

I looked at the schedule. OKC does VERY tightly fit into the bank structure. It'll be early out of the bank at 0835 and back in very tightly at 1300. Plus, to even make that work they had to do a 30 minute turn on a CR9 in OKC. I don't think they can reliably pull off that schedule. They will break connections all the time. That is probably why this flight has had trouble working in the past.


I'm not sure why the flight has to turn from OKC. After all, OKC has gobs of service from DFW and some service from ORD and CLT. We aren't quite to a point of "metal neutrality" across the hubs regardless of whose they were before the merger yet, but once we get there that will help many of these smaller midcon markets.
I can't decide whether I miss the tulip or the bowling shoe more
 
Dominion301
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Re: OAG Changes 11/26/2017: AA Adds CLT-BGR, DFW-OAK, ORD-CHS, PHX-AMA/OKC

Tue Nov 28, 2017 4:58 pm

FSDan wrote:
enilria wrote:
*AA CLT-SJC MAY 0>0.9 JUN 0>1.0 JUL 0>1.0 AUG 0>1.0
*AA DCA-ACK JUL 0>1.7 AUG 0>1.7
*AA DCA-MVY JUL 0>1.3 AUG 0>1.3
*AA DFW-TVC JUN 0>0.8 JUL 0>1.0
*AA PHL-PDX JUN 0>0.8 JUL 0>1.0 AUG 0>1.0
*AA PHL-SLC JUN 0>0.8 JUL 0>1.0 AUG 0>1.0
*AA PHL-YQB JUN 0>0.8 JUL 0>1.0 AUG 0>1.0
*AA PHX-JAC JUN 0>0.8 JUL 0>1.0


I believe the above are all resumptions of previous summer-seasonal service. Maybe one or two at higher frequencies for S18, but overall pretty similar.

It's good to see PHX-OKC as that was a gaping hole in AA's PHX network. PHX-AMA makes sense too given that PHX-LBB and PHX-MAF were both started recently - they must be meeting or exceeding expectations. A return to DFW-OAK and new ORD-CHS service both seem like good adds as well. It seems like a matter of time before the BOS point-to-point flying is gone.


PHL-YQB is a resumption of service after discontinuing the route in 2016. Looks like they're back for the peak summer season.
 
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enilria
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Re: OAG Changes 11/26/2017: AA Adds CLT-BGR, DFW-OAK, ORD-CHS, PHX-AMA/OKC

Tue Nov 28, 2017 5:08 pm

Cubsrule wrote:
enilria wrote:
I looked at the schedule. OKC does VERY tightly fit into the bank structure. It'll be early out of the bank at 0835 and back in very tightly at 1300. Plus, to even make that work they had to do a 30 minute turn on a CR9 in OKC. I don't think they can reliably pull off that schedule. They will break connections all the time. That is probably why this flight has had trouble working in the past.


I'm not sure why the flight has to turn from OKC. After all, OKC has gobs of service from DFW and some service from ORD and CLT. We aren't quite to a point of "metal neutrality" across the hubs regardless of whose they were before the merger yet, but once we get there that will help many of these smaller midcon markets.

I talked about that upthread. It doesn't have to, but these days the airline schedulers are under a lot of pressure to do "out and backs" because it helps keep the rest of the system going when there are weather problems at one hub. When airplanes move around from hub to hub it causes a major meltdown across the whole network. Also, with the prevalence of "spot cancellations" where airlines do single day load based cancels, it is almost impossible to do those when a plane moves between hubs.

Having said all of that, they *could* have it continue to another hub, but it is probably not a battle that is worth fighting with ops.
 
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AVLAirlineFreq
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Re: OAG Changes 11/26/2017: AA Adds CLT-BGR, DFW-OAK, ORD-CHS, PHX-AMA/OKC

Tue Nov 28, 2017 5:11 pm

enilria wrote:

*AA CLT-SJC MAY 0>0.9 JUN 0>1.0 JUL 0>1.0 AUG 0>1.0


Has this been tried before? And is it planned as summer seasonal only? Seems like it should do well.
 
alasizon
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Re: OAG Changes 11/26/2017: AA Adds CLT-BGR, DFW-OAK, ORD-CHS, PHX-AMA/OKC

Tue Nov 28, 2017 5:15 pm

FSDan wrote:
I believe the above are all resumptions of previous summer-seasonal service. Maybe one or two at higher frequencies for S18, but overall pretty similar.

It's good to see PHX-OKC as that was a gaping hole in AA's PHX network. PHX-AMA makes sense too given that PHX-LBB and PHX-MAF were both started recently - they must be meeting or exceeding expectations.


PHX-LBB/MAF are both over a year old at this point. They go 2x daily in January.
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enilria
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Re: OAG Changes 11/26/2017: AA Adds CLT-BGR, DFW-OAK, ORD-CHS, PHX-AMA/OKC

Tue Nov 28, 2017 5:16 pm

AVLAirlineFreq wrote:
enilria wrote:

*AA CLT-SJC MAY 0>0.9 JUN 0>1.0 JUL 0>1.0 AUG 0>1.0


Has this been tried before? And is it planned as summer seasonal only? Seems like it should do well.

I believe it is just a seasonal resumption. I don't know how many years it has been around, but probably post-oil price drop.
 
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Re: OAG Changes 11/26/2017: AA Adds CLT-BGR, DFW-OAK, ORD-CHS, PHX-AMA/OKC

Tue Nov 28, 2017 5:26 pm

enilria wrote:
Cubsrule wrote:
enilria wrote:
I looked at the schedule. OKC does VERY tightly fit into the bank structure. It'll be early out of the bank at 0835 and back in very tightly at 1300. Plus, to even make that work they had to do a 30 minute turn on a CR9 in OKC. I don't think they can reliably pull off that schedule. They will break connections all the time. That is probably why this flight has had trouble working in the past.


I'm not sure why the flight has to turn from OKC. After all, OKC has gobs of service from DFW and some service from ORD and CLT. We aren't quite to a point of "metal neutrality" across the hubs regardless of whose they were before the merger yet, but once we get there that will help many of these smaller midcon markets.

I talked about that upthread. It doesn't have to, but these days the airline schedulers are under a lot of pressure to do "out and backs" because it helps keep the rest of the system going when there are weather problems at one hub. When airplanes move around from hub to hub it causes a major meltdown across the whole network. Also, with the prevalence of "spot cancellations" where airlines do single day load based cancels, it is almost impossible to do those when a plane moves between hubs.

Having said all of that, they *could* have it continue to another hub, but it is probably not a battle that is worth fighting with ops.


Being on a CR9, both could easily flow through to DFW. However, a 30 minute outstation turn is normal now. I suspect AMA will end up as an overnight with OKC sticking with the daytime turn. The midday arrival from AMA doesn't give the best connections West when compared with the earlier departures out of DFW.
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Re: OAG Changes 11/26/2017: AA Adds CLT-BGR, DFW-OAK, ORD-CHS, PHX-AMA/OKC

Tue Nov 28, 2017 5:48 pm

michman wrote:
seatback wrote:
Indy gets four dailies from PHX but CVG can't get even one on AA?


People really need to stop hyperventilating over this. It just a seasonal bump-up for spring training/spring break travel. After March, it goes back down to two flights a day. Even during the schedule bump-up in March, it's not 4 flights every day.


This is a fair point, but my counter point would be CVG & CLE both have MLB teams that train in PHX versus IND, which doesn't have a MLB team. It is very surprising to me that DL or AA isn't at least spring seasonal on CVG-PHX, and it is more baffling to me that AA can't pull off 1x to PHX-CLE compared to their schedule in similar markets (PIT, IND, CMH).
 
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Re: OAG Changes 11/26/2017: AA Adds CLT-BGR, DFW-OAK, ORD-CHS, PHX-AMA/OKC

Tue Nov 28, 2017 5:57 pm

enilria wrote:
Cubsrule wrote:
enilria wrote:
I looked at the schedule. OKC does VERY tightly fit into the bank structure. It'll be early out of the bank at 0835 and back in very tightly at 1300. Plus, to even make that work they had to do a 30 minute turn on a CR9 in OKC. I don't think they can reliably pull off that schedule. They will break connections all the time. That is probably why this flight has had trouble working in the past.


I'm not sure why the flight has to turn from OKC. After all, OKC has gobs of service from DFW and some service from ORD and CLT. We aren't quite to a point of "metal neutrality" across the hubs regardless of whose they were before the merger yet, but once we get there that will help many of these smaller midcon markets.

I talked about that upthread. It doesn't have to, but these days the airline schedulers are under a lot of pressure to do "out and backs" because it helps keep the rest of the system going when there are weather problems at one hub. When airplanes move around from hub to hub it causes a major meltdown across the whole network. Also, with the prevalence of "spot cancellations" where airlines do single day load based cancels, it is almost impossible to do those when a plane moves between hubs.

Having said all of that, they *could* have it continue to another hub, but it is probably not a battle that is worth fighting with ops.


Schedulers routinely (and without any negative consequence AFAIK) schedule flights that go through to other hubs when the hub structure at one end requires it. Otherwise, no airline would have any mid-morning departures from cities in the Central or Eastern time zones to the west coast.
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Re: OAG Changes 11/26/2017: AA Adds CLT-BGR, DFW-OAK, ORD-CHS, PHX-AMA/OKC

Tue Nov 28, 2017 6:05 pm

Osubuckeyes wrote:
michman wrote:
seatback wrote:
Indy gets four dailies from PHX but CVG can't get even one on AA?


People really need to stop hyperventilating over this. It just a seasonal bump-up for spring training/spring break travel. After March, it goes back down to two flights a day. Even during the schedule bump-up in March, it's not 4 flights every day.


This is a fair point, but my counter point would be CVG & CLE both have MLB teams that train in PHX versus IND, which doesn't have a MLB team. It is very surprising to me that DL or AA isn't at least spring seasonal on CVG-PHX, and it is more baffling to me that AA can't pull off 1x to PHX-CLE compared to their schedule in similar markets (PIT, IND, CMH).
It appears WN is running 2x daily CLE-PHX this spring (3X on Saturday) in addition to the 1x daily F9 flight. CVG just has the F9 flight.
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Re: OAG Changes 11/26/2017: AA Adds CLT-BGR, DFW-OAK, ORD-CHS, PHX-AMA/OKC

Tue Nov 28, 2017 7:40 pm

enilria wrote:
AA LAX-FAT MAR 4>3


Only a slight capacity reduction, as one of the CRJ-900's to PHX was upsized to an A319, and two of the three flights to LAX are now on E175s (I believe only one of them was on an E175 last winter). This is likely a better fit, as the only advantages LAX has over PHX are Asia/Oceania (mostly on Oneworld Partners), Hawaii, a few Latin America markets, and a few East Coast markets like JFK and BOS. PHX, though, has better domestic connections to most markets and shaves off a little time getting to them. More O&D to PHX as well.
 
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Re: OAG Changes 11/26/2017: AA Adds CLT-BGR, DFW-OAK, ORD-CHS, PHX-AMA/OKC

Tue Nov 28, 2017 8:38 pm

Cubsrule wrote:
enilria wrote:
Cubsrule wrote:

I'm not sure why the flight has to turn from OKC. After all, OKC has gobs of service from DFW and some service from ORD and CLT. We aren't quite to a point of "metal neutrality" across the hubs regardless of whose they were before the merger yet, but once we get there that will help many of these smaller midcon markets.

I talked about that upthread. It doesn't have to, but these days the airline schedulers are under a lot of pressure to do "out and backs" because it helps keep the rest of the system going when there are weather problems at one hub. When airplanes move around from hub to hub it causes a major meltdown across the whole network. Also, with the prevalence of "spot cancellations" where airlines do single day load based cancels, it is almost impossible to do those when a plane moves between hubs.

Having said all of that, they *could* have it continue to another hub, but it is probably not a battle that is worth fighting with ops.


Schedulers routinely (and without any negative consequence AFAIK) schedule flights that go through to other hubs when the hub structure at one end requires it. Otherwise, no airline would have any mid-morning departures from cities in the Central or Eastern time zones to the west coast.

I guess it depends on the balance of power between ops and planning which varies from airline to airline.
 
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Re: OAG Changes 11/26/2017: AA Adds CLT-BGR, DFW-OAK, ORD-CHS, PHX-AMA/OKC

Tue Nov 28, 2017 9:06 pm

enilria wrote:
Cubsrule wrote:
enilria wrote:
I talked about that upthread. It doesn't have to, but these days the airline schedulers are under a lot of pressure to do "out and backs" because it helps keep the rest of the system going when there are weather problems at one hub. When airplanes move around from hub to hub it causes a major meltdown across the whole network. Also, with the prevalence of "spot cancellations" where airlines do single day load based cancels, it is almost impossible to do those when a plane moves between hubs.

Having said all of that, they *could* have it continue to another hub, but it is probably not a battle that is worth fighting with ops.


Schedulers routinely (and without any negative consequence AFAIK) schedule flights that go through to other hubs when the hub structure at one end requires it. Otherwise, no airline would have any mid-morning departures from cities in the Central or Eastern time zones to the west coast.

I guess it depends on the balance of power between ops and planning which varies from airline to airline.


It also can vary based on the hub analysts that are in place at each hub and the schedulers at HQ. Different people have different views that can effect routing and timing decisions.
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Re: OAG Changes 11/26/2017: AA Adds CLT-BGR, DFW-OAK, ORD-CHS, PHX-AMA/OKC

Tue Nov 28, 2017 9:30 pm

enilria wrote:
Flighty wrote:
A substantial set of adds from American Airlines. Enilria, thanks for the update. And I just figured out what your screen name means. :D

LOL. Takes people some time. :)


After this, I started trying to figure out what enilria means. I was just about to give up and ask. Then it clicked and I finally got it.

The Burlington Railroad (CB&Q) once had a train from Chicago to Lincoln called the Aksarben Zephyr too. I wonder how many people figured that one out.

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