This link is about the MEX-DEN market, but includes the largest US-MEX markets without nonstop service. I excluded SEA and PDX from the list because AM has announced nonstop service to those makets from MEX and LGA and DCA because of the distance restrictions.

http://airlineinfo.com/ostpdf98/926.pdf
Largest MEX-US Markets Without Nonstop Service
Local Passenger Market Size For Year Ending NOV 2016
RDU- 36,283
BWI- 34,240
PHL- 31,953
MSP- 31,747
BNA- 23,487
TPA- 19,417
MSY- 17,532

I wanted to share this information because I found it interesting and wanted to start a discussion on what market you think will receive nonstop service next.

IMHO MEX-BWI on WN is inevitable. BNA being a dark horse WN candidate but well seved via HOU.

I think it's interesting that MSP has been tried (twice I believe) and failed. AM has thrown everything from mainline to jungle jets at MSY and it never took.

TPA has the benefit of being a tourist destination, much more so than say PHL or BWI. So TPA while low, IMO is underrated in terms of opportunity.

MCO being at 200kish, shows how induced demand plays into a route that is established versus one that isn't, but has potential and similar market similarities

Italianflyer wrote:

IMHO MEX-BWI on WN is inevitable. BNA being a dark horse WN candidate but well seved via HOU.

I think it's interesting that MSP has been tried (twice I believe) and failed. AM has thrown everything from mainline to jungle jets at MSY and it never took.

I could see WN give BWI-MEX a try, I’m just not sure if they have the slots at MEX to add the service. I see BWI being perfect for Volaris or Interjet.

Mexico City is merely one market. There are many other city pairs from other large Mexican cities such as Guadalajara that have higher traffic volumes from US gateways that don't have service either.
In many cases demand to the US is higher from GDL than MEX particularly in ethnic heavy city pairs.

BTVB6Flyer wrote:

TPA has the benefit of being a tourist destination, much more so than say PHL or BWI. So TPA while low, IMO is underrated in terms of opportunity.

MCO being at 200kish, shows how induced demand plays into a route that is established versus one that isn't, but has potential and similar market similarities

I agree. The TPA area has a sizable Mexican population that is probably use to driving to MCO. Lowcost service via Volaris and Interjet would be great at stimulating the TPA-MEX market.

LAXintl wrote:

Mexico City is merely one market. There are many other city pairs from other large Mexican cities such as Guadalajara that have higher traffic volumes from US gateways that don't have service either.
In many cases demand to the US is higher from GDL than MEX particularly in ethnic heavy city pairs.

Do you have the numbers for the largest unserved GDL-US markets?

Italianflyer wrote:

AM has thrown everything from mainline to jungle jets at MSY and it never took.

Sure, if we're to call a DC9 and ERJ.... "everything."
Their last attempt launched the same month as the H1N1 crisis began in MEX, so no real surprise when it didn't last.

It also ignores that TW successfully ran MSY-MEX for years, until nearly that airline's last days.

And if we're to go back further, CO and several others have done the same.
Funnily enough, BA was one of them as well, though they eventaully abandoned LGW-MSY-MEX in favor of a nonstop from LHR.

Let's look at it from a growth perspective comparing 2011 data to this very recent data.

Markets ranked by highest percentage growth from 2011 to 2017:

Market.......2011 Pax.......2017 Pax.......Difference.........% change
BNA............9,348.............23,487...........+14,139.............+151%
MSY...........10,258............17,532............+7,274..............+71%
RDU...........24,750...........36,283............+11,533.............+47%
TPA............16,264...........19,417............+3,153...............+19%
BWI............29,921...........34,240............+4,319...............+14%
MSP...........30,705...........31,747.............+1,042..............+3%
PHL............34,160...........31,953............-2,207...............-7%

BNA stands out with very impressive growth over the last few years. Although PDEW is only 32 pax, the connections that WN runs through BNA could help fill the plane to a respectable load factor. The same can be said for BWI which also has a nice local base of flyers at 47 PDEW. This biggest limitations will be slot restrictions at MEX for WN.

MSP and PHL both have little to no growth on this route. If DL and AA aren't willing to try the route with the ample connections provided at these large hubs, I sincerely doubt a Mexican carrier would be interested at this point.

Of the remaining three (RDU, TPA, MSY), RDU is the most likely candidate to gain service next. DL is building up the airport as a focus city, and this would be nice addition to the route network. Demand is strong at 49 PDEW, and the growth has been very impressive. If these growth rates continue over the next couple of years, I would not be shocked to see DL or AM start up RDU-MEX.
MSY is also growing quickly. If growth rates continue, maybe AM could be convinced to restart the route. TPA is in the same boat as MSY with PDEW not quite high enough to warrant CRJ or ERJ service at this point.

Overall, I'd say that RDU has the best shot at gaining service next.

LAX772LR wrote:

Italianflyer wrote:

AM has thrown everything from mainline to jungle jets at MSY and it never took.

Sure, if we're to call a DC9 and ERJ.... "everything."
Their last attempt launched the same month as the H1N1 crisis began in MEX, so no real surprise when it didn't last.

It also ignores that TW successfully ran MSY-MEX for years, until nearly that airline's last days.

And if we're to go back further, CO and several others have done the same.
Funnily enough, BA was one of them as well, though they eventaully abandoned LGW-MSY-MEX in favor of a nonstop from LHR.

MSY also benefits from being the closest of all of the cities (although with the range of E Jets now, that is less of an advantage). Further, MSY benefits from having a strong DL presence (that is, DL could run a CRJ-700 in connection with its JV with AM). Some other cities listed also have a similar strength with DL. Finally, DL listed MSY, among others, as potential destinations under the JV with AM.

NolaMD88fan wrote:

Let's look at it from a growth perspective comparing 2011 data to this very recent data.

Markets ranked by highest percentage growth from 2011 to 2017:

Market.......2011 Pax.......2017 Pax.......Difference.........% change
BNA............9,348.............23,487...........+14,139.............+151%
MSY...........10,258............17,532............+7,274..............+71%
RDU...........24,750...........36,283............+11,533.............+47%
TPA............16,264...........19,417............+3,153...............+19%
BWI............29,921...........34,240............+4,319...............+14%
MSP...........30,705...........31,747.............+1,042..............+3%
PHL............34,160...........31,953............-2,207...............-7%

BNA stands out with very impressive growth over the last few years. Although PDEW is only 32 pax, the connections that WN runs through BNA could help fill the plane to a respectable load factor. The same can be said for BWI which also has a nice local base of flyers at 47 PDEW. This biggest limitations will be slot restrictions at MEX for WN.

MSP and PHL both have little to no growth on this route. If DL and AA aren't willing to try the route with the ample connections provided at these large hubs, I sincerely doubt a Mexican carrier would be interested at this point.

Of the remaining three (RDU, TPA, MSY), RDU is the most likely candidate to gain service next. DL is building up the airport as a focus city, and this would be nice addition to the route network. Demand is strong at 49 PDEW, and the growth has been very impressive. If these growth rates continue over the next couple of years, I would not be shocked to see DL or AM start up RDU-MEX.
MSY is also growing quickly. If growth rates continue, maybe AM could be convinced to restart the route. TPA is in the same boat as MSY with PDEW not quite high enough to warrant CRJ or ERJ service at this point.

Overall, I'd say that RDU has the best shot at gaining service next.

Thanks for that information. Two comments:

1) WN I doubt will launch BWI-MEX, that would have been a winner the the MEX slot processings. WN didn’t request and never asked to move the 2 HOU slots, instead, they relinquished those slots. To me that says WN isn’t interested even medium-term (take losses to maintain the route).
2) PHL and MSP could get an LCC/ULCC at a few times weekly. Such routes wouldn’t surprise me, but I suspect you’d see AA and the DL/AM JV, respectively, respond.

Edit: AM also intends to build up MEX as a connection hub to Latin America, which could really play into the route decisions of the DL/AM JV.

AA will probably start PHL-MEX sometime within the next few years or so...

Regarding any routes on WN to/from Mexico, they recently pulled out of a few US-Mexico routes from LAX, so it seems like Mexico routes aren't really working out for their current business plan/strategy... It's unlikely that WN will add any routes in the near future (if not remove anymore current routes to Mexico).

I think new thin routes to MEX would have to wait until the new airport opens in 2020 (although a 2021 opening is more likely).

Some of these routes may be candidates for CS300 service as it has very good hot & high performance. That is if Delta is interested or Volaris ends up buying some CS300s after converting some of its A320 orders.

LAX772LR wrote:

Italianflyer wrote:

AM has thrown everything from mainline to jungle jets at MSY and it never took.

Sure, if we're to call a DC9 and ERJ.... "everything."
Their last attempt launched the same month as the H1N1 crisis began in MEX, so no real surprise when it didn't last.

It also ignores that TW successfully ran MSY-MEX for years, until nearly that airline's last days.

And if we're to go back further, CO and several others have done the same.
Funnily enough, BA was one of them as well, though they eventaully abandoned LGW-MSY-MEX in favor of a nonstop from LHR.

iIRC, BA had no rights to carry local traffic between MSY and MEX.

jbs2886 wrote:

LAX772LR wrote:

Italianflyer wrote:

AM has thrown everything from mainline to jungle jets at MSY and it never took.

Sure, if we're to call a DC9 and ERJ.... "everything."
Their last attempt launched the same month as the H1N1 crisis began in MEX, so no real surprise when it didn't last.

It also ignores that TW successfully ran MSY-MEX for years, until nearly that airline's last days.

And if we're to go back further, CO and several others have done the same.
Funnily enough, BA was one of them as well, though they eventaully abandoned LGW-MSY-MEX in favor of a nonstop from LHR.

MSY also benefits from being the closest of all of the cities (although with the range of E Jets now, that is less of an advantage). Further, MSY benefits from having a strong DL presence (that is, DL could run a CRJ-700 in connection with its JV with AM). Some other cities listed also have a similar strength with DL. Finally, DL listed MSY, among others, as potential destinations under the JV with AM.

Keep in mind that most CRJ/ERJ aircraft are not overwater equipped and must hug the coast. In terms of MSY-MEX, you're looking at likely adding on an addtional +150 miles give or take on a 900 mile route.

FA9295 wrote:

AA will probably start PHL-MEX sometime within the next few years or so...

I would agree, especially how they've been building up PHL. Perfect A319 route

In their JV application, DL/AM listed MSP-MEX as one of the routes they would likely add. Interestingly, it's also the largest unserved international destination from MSP, so it seems like just a matter of time, especially given that it can be flown by a narrowbody.

FA9295 wrote:

Regarding any routes on WN to/from Mexico, they recently pulled out of a few US-Mexico routes from LAX, so it seems like Mexico routes aren't really working out for their current business plan/strategy... It's unlikely that WN will add any routes in the near future (if not remove anymore current routes to Mexico).

One of the major reasons WN struggles in Mexico especially is the fact that until recently I believe they couldn't do Mexican sales. So that hurts the traffic tremendously as its only one sided sales.

Also, on another note.

I'll have to get numbers for this, but I would like to throw MEX-MDW into the ring.

Yes, ORD has a ton of MEX service, but MDW targets a different geographical area that was previously served.

May niot be as big as the above mentioned ones though.

jetsetter629 wrote:

FA9295 wrote:

AA will probably start PHL-MEX sometime within the next few years or so...

I would agree, especially how they've been building up PHL. Perfect A319 route

Yeah, I was thinking A319 for that route too. Perhaps B757 at peak times....

bluefltspecial wrote:

Keep in mind that most CRJ/ERJ aircraft are not overwater equipped and must hug the coast. In terms of MSY-MEX, you're looking at likely adding on an addtional +150 miles give or take on a 900 mile route.

Wasn't the case here. I did that flight several times, and it took the most direct routing over the gulf.

How come you don't include SNA on that list? You don't have CLT or SMF on the list either, even though they would be at the top of the list too.

SJC comes in surprisingly low. However, I wonder if that number is skewed due to bleed to SFO. If there were an SJC-MEX flight, would it attract many more passengers who wouldn't have to go out of SFO?

BoeingGuy wrote:

How come you don't include SNA on that list? You don't have CLT or SMF on the list either, even though they would be at the top of the list too.

SJC comes in surprisingly low. However, I wonder if that number is skewed due to bleed to SFO. If there were an SJC-MEX flight, would it attract many more passengers who wouldn't have to go out of SFO?

Because CLT & SMF have nonstop flights to MEX. SNA must not be on the list because it currently has little O&D to MEX. Most SNA passengers probably use LAX or other nearby airports.

FLYKTPA wrote:

BoeingGuy wrote:

How come you don't include SNA on that list? You don't have CLT or SMF on the list either, even though they would be at the top of the list too.

SJC comes in surprisingly low. However, I wonder if that number is skewed due to bleed to SFO. If there were an SJC-MEX flight, would it attract many more passengers who wouldn't have to go out of SFO?

Because CLT & SMF have nonstop flights to MEX. SNA must not be on the list because it currently has little O&D to MEX. Most SNA passengers probably use LAX or other nearby airports.

The SMF-MEX flight runs for a very short season for the winter holidays. The next move would be to increase the length of the season or make it year-round.

BoeingGuy wrote:

How come you don't include SNA on that list? You don't have CLT or SMF on the list either, even though they would be at the top of the list too.

SJC comes in surprisingly low. However, I wonder if that number is skewed due to bleed to SFO. If there were an SJC-MEX flight, would it attract many more passengers who wouldn't have to go out of SFO?

It looks like the list is comprised of airports that had no service to MEX as of the writing of this slot allocation request. SMF still has seasonal service to MEX with AM, but SNA lost service with WN since the request was written. Would not be shocked if AS used one of their slots to start up SNA-MEX in the future. SJC has gained service to MEX with AM since the writing of this slot request as well.

NolaMD88fan wrote:

BoeingGuy wrote:

How come you don't include SNA on that list? You don't have CLT or SMF on the list either, even though they would be at the top of the list too.

SJC comes in surprisingly low. However, I wonder if that number is skewed due to bleed to SFO. If there were an SJC-MEX flight, would it attract many more passengers who wouldn't have to go out of SFO?

It looks like the list is comprised of airports that had no service to MEX as of the writing of this slot allocation request. SMF still has seasonal service to MEX with AM, but SNA lost service with WN since the request was written. Would not be shocked if AS used one of their slots to start up SNA-MEX in the future. SJC has gained service to MEX with AM since the writing of this slot request as well.

Does AM fly SJC-MEX? I thought they only do SJC-GDL.

FLYKTPA wrote:

This link is about the MEX-DEN market, but includes the largest US-MEX markets without nonstop service. I excluded SEA and PDX from the list because AM has announced nonstop service to those makets from MEX and LGA and DCA because of the distance restrictions.

http://airlineinfo.com/ostpdf98/926.pdf
Largest MEX-US Markets Without Nonstop Service
Local Passenger Market Size For Year Ending NOV 2016
RDU- 36,283
BWI- 34,240
PHL- 31,953
MSP- 31,747
BNA- 23,487
TPA- 19,417
MSY- 17,532

I wanted to share this information because I found it interesting and wanted to start a discussion on what market you think will receive nonstop service next.

Looking at MSY---that's only 24 pax per day per direction. Not much. Certainly CLE has more than that.

FA9295 wrote:

jetsetter629 wrote:

FA9295 wrote:

AA will probably start PHL-MEX sometime within the next few years or so...

I would agree, especially how they've been building up PHL. Perfect A319 route

Yeah, I was thinking A319 for that route too. Perhaps B757 at peak times....

I think it would be doable with an A319 that would build to a 738 eventually, probably timed for Europe connections. There are a decent number of European cities where flying there on AA via PHL gets you in several hours earlier vs flying BA/IB via LHR/MAD and would make them more competitive vs the UA and DL joint ventures across the Atlantic.

BoeingGuy wrote:

Does AM fly SJC-MEX? I thought they only do SJC-GDL.

The service begins June 2018.

All of these not being served and CLT having daily (completely full) nonstops is mind blowing to me!

jrkmsp wrote:

In their JV application, DL/AM listed MSP-MEX as one of the routes they would likely add. Interestingly, it's also the largest unserved international destination from MSP, so it seems like just a matter of time, especially given that it can be flown by a narrowbody.

DL tried MSP-MEX with an A319 and it just didn't take. I think if done properly it would work. They also tried MSP-MTY with an RJ with the same result. MSP-Mexico is big, but to the tourist destinations.

FA9295 wrote:

AA will probably start PHL-MEX sometime within the next few years or so...

I remember US announced in mid-2003 that they would launch PHL-MEX with A319. Never happened. I agree with you that this time around AA will sooner or later launch this route.

jrkmsp wrote:

n their JV application, DL/AM listed MSP-MEX as one of the routes they would likely add. Interestingly, it's also the largest unserved international destination from MSP, so it seems like just a matter of time, especially given that it can be flown by a narrowbody.

Yes, as lavalampluva mentioned, the previous DL attempt at this route was not successful. Hopefully with an immunized JV they will be able to make it happen this time. Perhaps operated by AM?

A few comments re: MSY-MEX

* AM service in the market was initially a daily MD-80. Then it became a daily DC-9, before being replaced with a direct service via CUN for several years. AM came back in 2009 with an ERJ. Lasted about a year.

* TW did horribly in the market. Plane typically had like 30 passengers on it on the MEX-MSY leg. It was flown as JFK-MSY-MEX but they never got much through traffic. Lasted about a year, IIRC. The MEX leg was replaced with SAT before the final dismantling of the JFK hub.

* The New Orleans region does not have a very large Mexican population. VFR traffic is scewed much more heavily towards Central America.

I think the JV with DL/AM could be the difference now, but I wouldn't expect anything much more than a 3X weekly E70/75-type service. Still, bigger fish to fry out of MEX in the near term.

lavalampluva wrote:

jrkmsp wrote:

In their JV application, DL/AM listed MSP-MEX as one of the routes they would likely add. Interestingly, it's also the largest unserved international destination from MSP, so it seems like just a matter of time, especially given that it can be flown by a narrowbody.

DL tried MSP-MEX with an A319 and it just didn't take. I think if done properly it would work. They also tried MSP-MTY with an RJ with the same result. MSP-Mexico is big, but to the tourist destinations.

Those were before the JV, I think the JV changes everything.

jbs2886 wrote:

lavalampluva wrote:

jrkmsp wrote:

In their JV application, DL/AM listed MSP-MEX as one of the routes they would likely add. Interestingly, it's also the largest unserved international destination from MSP, so it seems like just a matter of time, especially given that it can be flown by a narrowbody.

DL tried MSP-MEX with an A319 and it just didn't take. I think if done properly it would work. They also tried MSP-MTY with an RJ with the same result. MSP-Mexico is big, but to the tourist destinations.

Those were before the JV, I think the JV changes everything.

I agree.

what if AM turned MEX into what PTY is for COPA??? There's long haul connections, Americas connections, and strong populations in the US and Latin America to be had?

BreezyIAH wrote:

what if AM turned MEX into what PTY is for COPA??? There's long haul connections, Americas connections, and strong populations in the US and Latin America to be had?

That’s the plan.

BreezyIAH wrote:

what if AM turned MEX into what PTY is for COPA??? There's long haul connections, Americas connections, and strong populations in the US and Latin America to be had?

Firstly, MEX is not that well positioned from a purely geographical point of view. North-to-south connections would work very well for the Rockies and the US/Canada West Coast, but they would imply a bit of backtracking for Midwest and East Coast travelers. In that sense, CUN would be much better (geographically). A great portion of PTY's success is its geographic location.

Second, MEX does not have airside transfers. Like in the US, passengers need to clear immigration, claim baggage, go through customs, recheck bags and go through security again. Mexico would need to implement a number of policy, regulation and airport-layout changes in order to replicate what airports such as SIN, ICN, AMS, PTY, etc. excel at. This would be complicated in part due to bureaucracy and space limitations at MEX.

Third, perhaps the design of new airport will allow it to function like a true connection hub. However, considering that it is highly possible that López Obrador could win the 2018 presidential election, the new MEX is far from being a certainty. This politician has claimed numerous times that if he wins he will cancel the new airport project and will instead improve the current MEX and build a passenger terminal and infrastructure at the Santa Lucia airport base. The current MEX is beyond saturated and obsolete. I do not necessarily disagree with him that the new MEX is a flawed project, but I think he is completely wrong to advocate for its cancellation. Transiting from an overwhelmed but still barely functional single airport to a tandem of that same patched-up airport plus a far away military base-cum-civilian airport is just delusional.