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scbriml
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Re: Boeing 737 MAX 10 vs Airbus A321neo analysis

Sat Jan 20, 2018 2:30 pm

Newbiepilot wrote:
I don’t think posting a quote from Leeham is detracting from the A321 or 737.


No, absolutely not. But that wasn't my point - I'm just saying there are as many A321 detractors on a.net (because it's not a 757!) as there are fans. I'm not putting you in either camp, BTW.
Time flies like an arrow. Fruit flies like a banana!
There are 10 types of people in the World - those that understand binary and those that don't.
 
parapente
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Re: Boeing 737 MAX 10 vs Airbus A321neo analysis

Sat Jan 20, 2018 2:39 pm

I appreciate that I may be a minority of one here Mjoelnir!And of course this site or Leeham are free to discuss any comparisons they want!
But it's a bit like the last line above' by 3:1 or 4:1 margins'.Something rose is going on here (imho).
Of course in many scenarios these 2 aircraft can be compared and indeed Boeing were forced to invest in the -10 because they needed to get as close as they technically could to the spec's of the A321NEO.
My point is simply that the A321NEO goes beyond that direct comparison and into other market sectors so of course their sales opportunities are larger.
Which is why Boeing are moving to plug what they see as an increasingly large emerging sector that (in part) Airbus have to themselves at present.One that they feel warrants a whole new aircraft. not just because of the A321NEO/LR but also what it might become if they do nothing.
 
mjoelnir
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Re: Boeing 737 MAX 10 vs Airbus A321neo analysis

Sat Jan 20, 2018 2:56 pm

parapente wrote:
I appreciate that I may be a minority of one here Mjoelnir!And of course this site or Leeham are free to discuss any comparisons they want!
But it's a bit like the last line above' by 3:1 or 4:1 margins'.Something rose is going on here (imho).
Of course in many scenarios these 2 aircraft can be compared and indeed Boeing were forced to invest in the -10 because they needed to get as close as they technically could to the spec's of the A321NEO.
My point is simply that the A321NEO goes beyond that direct comparison and into other market sectors so of course their sales opportunities are larger.
Which is why Boeing are moving to plug what they see as an increasingly large emerging sector that (in part) Airbus have to themselves at present.One that they feel warrants a whole new aircraft. not just because of the A321NEO/LR but also what it might become if they do nothing.


Their are other threads that discuss that thematic, this thread discusses, according to the topic, how the 737-10 fares against the A321neo.
 
350helmi
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Re: Boeing 737 MAX 10 vs Airbus A321neo analysis

Sat Jan 20, 2018 4:47 pm

Newbiepilot wrote:
RalXWB wrote:
So funny to read fow some people create their own reality here :white:


Some of the comments are quite amazing given that the conclusion from the Leeham article is this:

There is no real advantage for either company on the economics.

https://leehamnews.com/2017/12/11/ponti ... -decision/

Given that outsiders are saying there is no advantage for either company I don’t understand the world where someone actually believes:

mjoelnir wrote:
. I imagine an 80 to 20 future split of the market to be very realistic.


The A321 has quite a fan club on this website.


IMO the A321 will still be the better plane, if only because of its greater flexibility. The economy of the planes is even, but the A321 has more range at that efficiency, maybe resulting in something like 65:35 split (slightly more in favour of Airbus than at A320/738 segment which has been at 58:42 with NEO and MAX). All that is obviously presuming the efficiency between them doesn't change much with distance.

350helmi
 
Newbiepilot
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Re: Boeing 737 MAX 10 vs Airbus A321neo analysis

Sat Jan 20, 2018 5:03 pm

350helmi wrote:

IMO the A321 will still be the better plane, if only because of its greater flexibility. The economy of the planes is even, but the A321 has more range at that efficiency, maybe resulting in something like 65:35 split (slightly more in favour of Airbus than at A320/738 segment which has been at 58:42 with NEO and MAX). All that is obviously presuming the efficiency between them doesn't change much with distance.

350helmi


I am curious how much of a difference range will make. The longest 737-800 route (Cops PTY-MVD) and 737-900ER route (Turkish IST-DAR) are about 10% (300nm) longer than the longest A320 and A321 routes in standard two class configurations The 737-8 has been scheduled already to fly BSB-MCO at 3300nm.

The A321LR has a 7000lbs MTOW increase over the A321neo. By using the LR designator, Airbus marketing has done a fantastic job leverging that MTOW increase of only 3.5% in my opinion. It will likely shift the real world operarional range advantage from the 737 to the A321 by perhaps 300 miles. I would contend that the range differences between the 737-800 and A320 didnt make a particularly significant difference in many sales campaigns, so i wonder how many sales that the A321LR will win against the 737-10 bases on range.
 
RalXWB
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Re: Boeing 737 MAX 10 vs Airbus A321neo analysis

Sat Jan 20, 2018 5:10 pm

So now you are denying the actual sales figures with a ratio of 4 or 5:1 and say that the -9/-10 will catch up or even better because you question everbody who takes the actual current situation as basis. In the end, I know what the balance will be, it won´t be much different than the current situation. But it is ok, you are known as one of the biggest 321 critics here and I belong to the fan club and that´s why I won´t discuss this any further. #salesfiguresdontlie
 
mxaxai
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Re: Boeing 737 MAX 10 vs Airbus A321neo analysis

Sat Jan 20, 2018 5:21 pm

Newbiepilot wrote:
It comes down to the unique operating environments of the individual airlines.

It also heavily depends on the existing fleet. For almost all airlines, there is no incentive to create a fleet consisting of the A320 and 737-10. Similarly, the 737-8 + A321 combo won't be the most popular either. Only airlines that have an existing 737 fleet and need the A321LR capabilities would benefit from that. I expect the -10 to do well in North America and Asia but not so much in Europe or South America, simply due to the lack of large 737 operators there. (Yes, Ryanair exists but they haven't indicated any interest so far.)

The current overall marketshare of MAX vs neo will therefore also find its way into the 737-9 vs A321 competition. It's not about having the better aircraft. Usually, merely selling many aircraft initially helps selling a whole lot more later.
 
Newbiepilot
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Re: Boeing 737 MAX 10 vs Airbus A321neo analysis

Sat Jan 20, 2018 5:24 pm

RalXWB wrote:
So now you are denying the actual sales figures with a ratio of 4 or 5:1 and say that the -9/-10 will catch up or even better because you question everbody who takes the actual current situation as basis. In the end, I know what the balance will be, it won´t be much different than the current situation. But it is ok, you are known as one of the biggest 321 critics here and I belong to the fan club and that´s why I won´t discuss this any further. #salesfiguresdontlie


You are calling me one of the biggest 321 critics here. Where am I criticizing the A321? Please find a quote to show me because I dont see how quoting the Leeham article and discussing the strengths and weaknesses of each plane makes me one of the biggest 321 critics.
 
350helmi
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Re: Boeing 737 MAX 10 vs Airbus A321neo analysis

Sat Jan 20, 2018 5:57 pm

Newbiepilot wrote:

I am curious how much of a difference range will make. The longest 737-800 route (Cops PTY-MVD) and 737-900ER route (Turkish IST-DAR) are about 10% (300nm) longer than the longest A320 and A321 routes in standard two class configurations The 737-8 has been scheduled already to fly BSB-MCO at 3300nm.

The A321LR has a 7000lbs MTOW increase over the A321neo. By using the LR designator, Airbus marketing has done a fantastic job leverging that MTOW increase of only 3.5% in my opinion. It will likely shift the real world operarional range advantage from the 737 to the A321 by perhaps 300 miles. I would contend that the range differences between the 737-800 and A320 didnt make a particularly significant difference in many sales campaigns, so i wonder how many sales that the A321LR will win against the 737-10 bases on range.


I agree that A320/738 don't have much difference in range and probably in that comparison it doesn't make a big difference if at all. But with their bigger sisters the picture, I feel, is a little different since the difference is bigger and the 739 already has dificulties with rotation angles meaning long runways are needed to utilise the max range, the rotation problem will not get any better with the -10 version, though probably not worse either. Yes the 739 brouchure range is around the same ballpark figure as the A321, but it won't be able to use that range from as many airports or with as many pax as the A321. The -10 will most likely be slightly worse on range than the 739MAX.

350helmi
 
fsabo
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Re: Boeing 737 MAX 10 vs Airbus A321neo analysis

Sat Jan 20, 2018 6:32 pm

Newbiepilot wrote:
350helmi wrote:

IMO the A321 will still be the better plane, if only because of its greater flexibility. The economy of the planes is even, but the A321 has more range at that efficiency, maybe resulting in something like 65:35 split (slightly more in favour of Airbus than at A320/738 segment which has been at 58:42 with NEO and MAX). All that is obviously presuming the efficiency between them doesn't change much with distance.

350helmi


I am curious how much of a difference range will make. The longest 737-800 route (Cops PTY-MVD) and 737-900ER route (Turkish IST-DAR) are about 10% (300nm) longer than the longest A320 and A321 routes in standard two class configurations The 737-8 has been scheduled already to fly BSB-MCO at 3300nm.

The A321LR has a 7000lbs MTOW increase over the A321neo. By using the LR designator, Airbus marketing has done a fantastic job leverging that MTOW increase of only 3.5% in my opinion. It will likely shift the real world operarional range advantage from the 737 to the A321 by perhaps 300 miles. I would contend that the range differences between the 737-800 and A320 didnt make a particularly significant difference in many sales campaigns, so i wonder how many sales that the A321LR will win against the 737-10 bases on range.


The 737NG and A320CEO are much closer in engine efficiency than the MAX and NEO. Right now the LEAP1A has a compressor mismatch and has bleed pinned open to compensate. When this is fixed the 1A should be noticeably better than the 1B. With the GTF the difference will be even greater with the 3% PIP coming. Also, GTF excels at climb which should help short range flight efficiency. Advantage NG had over CEO will vaporize.
 
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JetBuddy
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Re: Boeing 737 MAX 10 vs Airbus A321neo analysis

Sat Jan 20, 2018 6:39 pm

SAS is finalizing an order for 45 A320neo and A321neo, including some LR variants. In their own words it's the absolute best short to medium aircraft on the market at this time. All current 737 NGs will be replaced by A320neo and A321neo.
 
Swadian
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Re: Boeing 737 MAX 10 vs Airbus A321neo analysis

Sat Jan 20, 2018 6:56 pm

mxaxai wrote:
Newbiepilot wrote:
It comes down to the unique operating environments of the individual airlines.

It also heavily depends on the existing fleet. For almost all airlines, there is no incentive to create a fleet consisting of the A320 and 737-10. Similarly, the 737-8 + A321 combo won't be the most popular either. Only airlines that have an existing 737 fleet and need the A321LR capabilities would benefit from that. I expect the -10 to do well in North America and Asia but not so much in Europe or South America, simply due to the lack of large 737 operators there. (Yes, Ryanair exists but they haven't indicated any interest so far.)

The current overall marketshare of MAX vs neo will therefore also find its way into the 737-9 vs A321 competition. It's not about having the better aircraft. Usually, merely selling many aircraft initially helps selling a whole lot more later.


We should not discount the 738/A321 combo being used by the world's largest airline, AA. The A321's advantage is that it proves useful as a top end narrowbody with unique capabilities over an airline's 737 fleet whereas the 73X does not do the same over the A32X family.

I also contest the claim that the 73X will be popular in North America - AA and DL already have plenty of A321 on order and likely won't jump on it, WN hasn't even gone for the 739 so doubtful they would jump on board anytime soon, only UA seems to want the 73X.

As it stands, the -7MAX, -9MAX, and -10MAX are all essentially sales flops compared to Boeing's own -8MAX. The -10MAX may become the second most popular variant, but still not even close to the -8MAX.
 
Newbiepilot
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Re: Boeing 737 MAX 10 vs Airbus A321neo analysis

Sat Jan 20, 2018 7:06 pm

I think calling an airplane that was officially launched 7 months ago and has around 400 orders a sales flop is an example of commom bias found on this website.

It appears that people are very quick to jump to conclusions. The 737-7 and A319neo appear to be niche planes that the market is moving away from, but I think that the 737-10 has already shown enough market acceptance in a short period that we are beyond sales flop comments.
 
mat66
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Re: Boeing 737 MAX 10 vs Airbus A321neo analysis

Sat Jan 20, 2018 7:11 pm

JetBuddy wrote:
SAS is finalizing an order for 45 A320neo and A321neo, including some LR variants. In their own words it's the absolute best short to medium aircraft on the market at this time. All current 737 NGs will be replaced by A320neo and A321neo.


Very confident tone in this post. Sounds that we will find out soon. They have 69 737NG. So there is still room for 24 CS300 to replace those -600 and -700.
 
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keesje
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Re: Boeing 737 MAX 10 vs Airbus A321neo analysis

Sat Jan 20, 2018 7:45 pm

United and LionAir switched their 737-9 orders for 737-10s after pushing them out.

Air Canada reduced their -9 order and are probably scratching their heads on -10s vs more A321s.

Other -10 orders are marginal. Lessors that can easily switch.

The 737-10 having gained full market acceptance is wishfull thinking at this stage.

United decides what happens with the -10. Delta ignoring it was damaging.

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"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway
 
Newbiepilot
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Re: Boeing 737 MAX 10 vs Airbus A321neo analysis

Sat Jan 20, 2018 8:00 pm

keesje wrote:
United and LionAir switched their 737-9 orders for 737-10s after pushing them out.

Air Canada reduced their -9 order and are probably scratching their heads on -10s vs more A321s.

Other -10 orders are marginal. Lessors that can easily switch.

The 737-10 having gained full market acceptance is wishfull thinking at this stage.

United decides what happens with the -10. Delta ignoring it was damaging.
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China has already decided what happens with the -10. 16 customers in a matter of months including significant traction in China is not market acceptance? Another example of bias on this site.

Since you like photos we can play name the airline or leasing company

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(For Tibet Finance)
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StTim
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Re: Boeing 737 MAX 10 vs Airbus A321neo analysis

Sat Jan 20, 2018 8:20 pm

Newbiepilot wrote:
Another example of bias on this site.


All people have biases. That is a fact of life. You see an inherent bias against Boeing. Strange as I see an inherent bias towards Boeing.
 
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crimsonchin
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Re: Boeing 737 MAX 10 vs Airbus A321neo analysis

Sat Jan 20, 2018 9:26 pm

The A321neo is obviously the overall better plane, the market will prove it unequivocally in the end.

Fanboys masquerading as "balanced" (laughable) can mull on that.
 
WIederling
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Re: Boeing 737 MAX 10 vs Airbus A321neo analysis

Sat Jan 20, 2018 9:42 pm

Newbiepilot wrote:
I think calling an airplane that was officially launched 7 months ago


... In October 2016, Boeing's board granted authority to offer the stretched variant ...

any dip in A321 orders or conversions after that?
Murphy is an optimist
 
Route66
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Re: Boeing 737 MAX 10 vs Airbus A321neo analysis

Sat Jan 20, 2018 9:50 pm

I'm not sure I would crow too hard if I were a die-hard Airbus fan. Particularly about sales. When the entire company is under (apparently) intense investigation for illicit business practices, including bribery, I would have some concern that many of those sales may prove to be tainted.
 
StTim
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Re: Boeing 737 MAX 10 vs Airbus A321neo analysis

Sat Jan 20, 2018 9:51 pm

Route66 wrote:
I'm not sure I would crow too hard if I were a die-hard Airbus fan. Particularly about sales. When the entire company is under (apparently) intense investigation for illicit business practices, including bribery, I would have some concern that many of those sales may prove to be tainted.

You know I have been waiting for that piece of mud to be thrown...

Going to grab some pop corn and watch...
 
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keesje
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Re: Boeing 737 MAX 10 vs Airbus A321neo analysis

Sat Jan 20, 2018 10:51 pm

Newbiepilot wrote:


I looked at the 737-10 backlog and Im obviously less impressed than you are.

The UA and LionAir conversions, a bunch of flexible lessor contract and a few smaller airliners. I don't want to dampen your enthousiasm, but market acceptance .. check the list:

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Boeing_737_MAX_orders_and_deliveries#Orders_and_deliveries_by_customer
"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway
 
GatorClark
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Re: Boeing 737 MAX 10 vs Airbus A321neo analysis

Sat Jan 20, 2018 11:04 pm

As a diehard Boeing fan, I must play devi's advocate and impartial on this one. It remains to be seen exactly what the MAX 10 will bring to the table. On the drawing board, every aircraft looks amazing but it doesn't always pan out that way.
 
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scbriml
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Re: Boeing 737 MAX 10 vs Airbus A321neo analysis

Sat Jan 20, 2018 11:18 pm

Newbiepilot wrote:
I think calling an airplane that was officially launched 7 months ago and has around 400 orders a sales flop is an example of commom bias found on this website.


Authority to offer was granted by Boeing's board in October 2016, so that's well over a year ago now. That initial rush or orders also included a significant number of conversions from the -9. It is certainly too early to paint the -10 as a flop (and I'm sure it won't be), but it will be interesting to see how it fares vs. the A321 from this year onwards. Of course, Boeing makes it harder for us than necessary by not breaking out MAX models on their website.

mxaxai wrote:
Similarly, the 737-8 + A321 combo won't be the most popular either.


Yet an increasing number of airlines are taking just that combination.
Time flies like an arrow. Fruit flies like a banana!
There are 10 types of people in the World - those that understand binary and those that don't.
 
mxaxai
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Re: Boeing 737 MAX 10 vs Airbus A321neo analysis

Sun Jan 21, 2018 12:19 am

scbriml wrote:
mxaxai wrote:
Similarly, the 737-8 + A321 combo won't be the most popular either.


Yet an increasing number of airlines are taking just that combination.

Yes, but they are mostly large airlines where the economies of scale warrant two families, or where mergers have lead to mixed fleets prior to that. We also had some airlines flying both the ceo and the NG but that was the exception, not the rule.
For example, I highly doubt that VX would have been interested in the 737-8 nor would AS have ordered the A321neo. Only the merger made that possible.
 
astuteman
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Re: Boeing 737 MAX 10 vs Airbus A321neo analysis

Sun Jan 21, 2018 8:46 am

Newbiepilot wrote:
I think calling an airplane that was officially launched 7 months ago and has around 400 orders a sales flop is an example of commom bias found on this website.

It appears that people are very quick to jump to conclusions. The 737-7 and A319neo appear to be niche planes that the market is moving away from, but I think that the 737-10 has already shown enough market acceptance in a short period that we are beyond sales flop comments.


As someone with an intrinsic dislike of calling any aircraft a "flop", I'd agree that the 737 MAX 10 should not be called a flop.

In terms of numbers, according to the site Keejse linked

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_B ... deliveries

Total number of known 737 MAX 10 firm orders so far is 274 according to that list.
Unfortunately the site list the earliest order date for any MAX for that airline, so all seem to predate the launch of the MAX 10.

I know that is not true, but clearly many of these orders were conversions from previously placed orders (like the 100 for UA), and as such were a) not new, and b) clearly reflect that the airline would have ordered the MAX 10 originally if it had been offered.

For context, the A321 NEO has secured 440 firm, NEW, orders in the last 7 months

As an aircraft, the 737 MAX 10 shouldn't be considered a flop.

But one thing it has clearly been unable to do, up to now at least, is stop the dominant run away of the A321NEO at the top of the narrowbody market.
Recognising this should not be labelled as fanboyism - it's a fact backed by the data, irrespective of what Leeham offer as their opinion.

Rgds
 
WIederling
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Re: Boeing 737 MAX 10 vs Airbus A321neo analysis

Sun Jan 21, 2018 9:52 am

astuteman wrote:
Newbiepilot wrote:
I think calling an airplane that was officially launched 7 months ago and has around 400 orders a sales flop is an example of commom bias found on this website.


What got opposed is the statement that the MAX10 is the "Befreiungsschlag" for Boeing competing against the A321.
No idea how much help 1/3rd of list was in initial buying decissions was.
( and upgauge from MAX9 to MAX10 for free then?)

MAX10 is a cannibal. ;-)
Murphy is an optimist
 
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speedbored
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Re: Boeing 737 MAX 10 vs Airbus A321neo analysis

Sun Jan 21, 2018 10:31 am

My own opinion, based on the data that I have seen is that the MAX-10 has up-to a couple of % advantage on short missions and that the 321neo has up-to 5% advantage on longer missions.

But let's just go with the opinion of the article in the opening post, that the operating economics are very similar. If that is the case, why would we be surprised that airlines would choose the aircraft that provides a more spacious interior for passengers and crew, and a better working environment, and simpler handling, for staff working baggage and cargo.

Believe it or not, airlines do actually care about their passengers and staff (as long as it doesn't lose them money, of course :D )
 
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scbriml
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Re: Boeing 737 MAX 10 vs Airbus A321neo analysis

Sun Jan 21, 2018 11:40 am

speedbored wrote:
My own opinion, based on the data that I have seen is that the MAX-10 has up-to a couple of % advantage on short missions and that the 321neo has up-to 5% advantage on longer missions.

But let's just go with the opinion of the article in the opening post, that the operating economics are very similar. If that is the case, why would we be surprised that airlines would choose the aircraft that provides a more spacious interior for passengers and crew, and a better working environment, and simpler handling, for staff working baggage and cargo.

Believe it or not, airlines do actually care about their passengers and staff (as long as it doesn't lose them money, of course :D )


If we accept Leeham's analysis that the A210neo and 737-10 are very close on economics, I wonder how much the extra flexibility of the A321 (including the LR version) comes into play? It will be very interesting to see how they match up over the next five years.
Time flies like an arrow. Fruit flies like a banana!
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Newbiepilot
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Re: Boeing 737 MAX 10 vs Airbus A321neo analysis

Sun Jan 21, 2018 1:53 pm

keesje wrote:
Newbiepilot wrote:


I looked at the 737-10 backlog and Im obviously less impressed than you are.

The UA and LionAir conversions, a bunch of flexible lessor contract and a few smaller airliners. I don't want to dampen your enthousiasm, but market acceptance .. check the list:

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Boeing_737_MAX_orders_and_deliveries#Orders_and_deliveries_by_customer


I am fine debating what market acceptance means. It sounds like we are beyond the sales flop comment from another poster. Just remember the context in threads about A330-900 which has 214 orders from 12 customers in over 3 years and whether that plane has market acceptance.
 
StTim
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Re: Boeing 737 MAX 10 vs Airbus A321neo analysis

Sun Jan 21, 2018 2:13 pm

Whilst I would agree that the jury is still out on the A330neo I do not consider comparing absolute numbers of sales of a narrow body to a wide body.
 
Newbiepilot
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Re: Boeing 737 MAX 10 vs Airbus A321neo analysis

Sun Jan 21, 2018 2:59 pm

StTim wrote:
Whilst I would agree that the jury is still out on the A330neo I do not consider comparing absolute numbers of sales of a narrow body to a wide body.


I think the A330-900 reached market acceptance once DL ordered it. I also think 16 customers ordering the 737-10 is market acceptance. It took the 737-900ER a while to get market acceptance but I think it did when UA committed to it.

To me what market acceptance means is there is a large enough customer base that the used market will maintain airplane value. A healthy second hand market puts lessors and financing companies at ease. Those are the key players since they won’t finance planes that are at risk of devaluing so fast that they could go to the scrappers after 5-10 years if an airline goes bankrupt or downsizes (like A318s, 736s, A345s, etc). Niche airplanes come with higher risk for financing companies and that usually means higher rates and payments. Unless Airbus or Boeing step in to finance the planes, rational customers tend to switch to the more popular models to get better financing terms.

The 737-7, 737-9 and A319neo are all at risk for market acceptance in my opinion but it is up to debate whether the initial sales of the 737-10are enough to attract good rates from the financing companies. The A320neo, A321neo and 737MAX8 are a financing companies perfect asset now since the used market will stay strong for decades.
Last edited by Newbiepilot on Sun Jan 21, 2018 3:14 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
Planeyguy
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Re: Boeing 737 MAX 10 vs Airbus A321neo analysis

Sun Jan 21, 2018 3:08 pm

speedbored wrote:
My own opinion, based on the data that I have seen is that the MAX-10 has up-to a couple of % advantage on short missions and that the 321neo has up-to 5% advantage on longer missions.

But let's just go with the opinion of the article in the opening post, that the operating economics are very similar. If that is the case, why would we be surprised that airlines would choose the aircraft that provides a more spacious interior for passengers and crew, and a better working environment, and simpler handling, for staff working baggage and cargo.

Believe it or not, airlines do actually care about their passengers and staff (as long as it doesn't lose them money, of course :D )

So are you saying that crew and passengers prefer the A321 to the 737-10? That is a bold claim. Where is your source? For me as a passenger, the 737 feels exactly like the A321.You are just saying that because you are a Airbus fanboy
 
fsabo
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Re: Boeing 737 MAX 10 vs Airbus A321neo analysis

Sun Jan 21, 2018 3:26 pm

Planeyguy wrote:
speedbored wrote:
My own opinion, based on the data that I have seen is that the MAX-10 has up-to a couple of % advantage on short missions and that the 321neo has up-to 5% advantage on longer missions.

But let's just go with the opinion of the article in the opening post, that the operating economics are very similar. If that is the case, why would we be surprised that airlines would choose the aircraft that provides a more spacious interior for passengers and crew, and a better working environment, and simpler handling, for staff working baggage and cargo.

Believe it or not, airlines do actually care about their passengers and staff (as long as it doesn't lose them money, of course :D )

So are you saying that crew and passengers prefer the A321 to the 737-10? That is a bold claim. Where is your source? For me as a passenger, the 737 feels exactly like the A321.You are just saying that because you are a Airbus fanboy


Bulk load vs containerized cargo. Cramped noisy cockpit vs roomier and quieter one. Narrower fuselage vs slightly wider one.

So which one would you prefer?
 
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speedbored
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Re: Boeing 737 MAX 10 vs Airbus A321neo analysis

Sun Jan 21, 2018 3:54 pm

Planeyguy wrote:
speedbored wrote:
My own opinion, based on the data that I have seen is that the MAX-10 has up-to a couple of % advantage on short missions and that the 321neo has up-to 5% advantage on longer missions.

But let's just go with the opinion of the article in the opening post, that the operating economics are very similar. If that is the case, why would we be surprised that airlines would choose the aircraft that provides a more spacious interior for passengers and crew, and a better working environment, and simpler handling, for staff working baggage and cargo.

Believe it or not, airlines do actually care about their passengers and staff (as long as it doesn't lose them money, of course :D )

So are you saying that crew and passengers prefer the A321 to the 737-10? That is a bold claim. Where is your source? For me as a passenger, the 737 feels exactly like the A321.You are just saying that because you are a Airbus fanboy

I never made any claim as to what the passengers prefer (though there have been multiple surveys that make it clear what passengers actually do prefer) but the simple fact is that the A320 cabin is bigger so why would airlines not choose the extra space at no cost option? If you read all of this thread, you will find a ramper who has actually posted that they find the A320 far more pleasant to work in the hold - bad backs and aching necks are very common amongst the people who have to work in the 737 hold.

And no, I am not an Airbus fanboy. I'm an aviation fan and my own personal favourite aircraft, after Concorde, is actually a Boeing.
 
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keesje
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Re: Boeing 737 MAX 10 vs Airbus A321neo analysis

Sun Jan 21, 2018 4:35 pm

Newbiepilot wrote:
I think calling an airplane that was officially launched 7 months ago and has around 400 orders a sales flop is an example of commom bias found on this website.

It appears that people are very quick to jump to conclusions....


As a small detail, nobody called the 737-10 a "flop". Newbiepilot, the question is why do you suggest it..? Extract some responds on something (not) said? Get away from numbers and switch to a symantics discussion? A strawman?

I was just commenting "market acceptance" was maybe a bit rich for the current 737-10 orderbook.
"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway
 
Newbiepilot
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Re: Boeing 737 MAX 10 vs Airbus A321neo analysis

Sun Jan 21, 2018 4:55 pm

keesje wrote:
Newbiepilot wrote:
I think calling an airplane that was officially launched 7 months ago and has around 400 orders a sales flop is an example of commom bias found on this website.

It appears that people are very quick to jump to conclusions....


As a small detail, nobody called the 737-10 a "flop". Newbiepilot, the question is why do you suggest it..? Extract some responds on something (not) said? Get away from numbers and switch to a symantics discussion? A strawman?

I was just commenting "market acceptance" was maybe a bit rich for the current 737-10 orderbook.


Perhaps you didn’t notice this comment in post 184 this thread.

Swadian wrote:

As it stands, the -7MAX, -9MAX, and -10MAX are all essentially sales flops.


There is no strawman ;). Nice try
 
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enzo011
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Re: Boeing 737 MAX 10 vs Airbus A321neo analysis

Sun Jan 21, 2018 5:36 pm

Newbiepilot wrote:
I am fine debating what market acceptance means. It sounds like we are beyond the sales flop comment from another poster. Just remember the context in threads about A330-900 which has 214 orders from 12 customers in over 3 years and whether that plane has market acceptance.



I see your orange and I raise you my apple and assert that it is indeed sweeter than your orange.

Newbiepilot wrote:
Perhaps you didn’t notice this comment in post 184 this thread.

Swadian wrote:

As it stands, the -7MAX, -9MAX, and -10MAX are all essentially sales flops.



There is no strawman . Nice try


If you are able to have an opinion on what market acceptance means, posters can assert that models in a family has been a flop on their own metrics. I am not posting the thoughts of Swadian as I have no idea why he thinks all but the 737-8MAX is a flop, but the share of sold models so far for the 737MAX is as follows (according to the Wiki page):

737-7MAX - 1.4% of sales (57)
737-8MAX - 50.50.5% (2053)
737-9MAX - 1.6% (65)
737-10MAX - 6.7% (274)
Unknown - 38.5% (1567)

So what we can see is that almost 40% of the orders gained are unknown. So there may a bigger percentage of 737-10 on order. But we can only debate the numbers that Boeing has released. Seems obvious to me that they didn't want to have a direct comparison of the 737-9 and the A321 as the numbers were showing a big advantage to the A321 and one way to avoid talking about it is by ignoring it for a short while whilst they were working on a solution to close the gap. I am sure opinions will vary on the validity of this but Airbus seem to have no problem publishing the different numbers for each model when airlines are free to change models, I fail to see any valid reason why Boeing couldn't do it as well.
 
Swadian
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Re: Boeing 737 MAX 10 vs Airbus A321neo analysis

Sun Jan 21, 2018 6:13 pm

Newbiepilot wrote:
keesje wrote:
Newbiepilot wrote:
I think calling an airplane that was officially launched 7 months ago and has around 400 orders a sales flop is an example of commom bias found on this website.

It appears that people are very quick to jump to conclusions....


As a small detail, nobody called the 737-10 a "flop". Newbiepilot, the question is why do you suggest it..? Extract some responds on something (not) said? Get away from numbers and switch to a symantics discussion? A strawman?

I was just commenting "market acceptance" was maybe a bit rich for the current 737-10 orderbook.


Perhaps you didn’t notice this comment in post 184 this thread.

Swadian wrote:

As it stands, the -7MAX, -9MAX, and -10MAX are all essentially sales flops.


There is no strawman ;). Nice try


You conveniently cut off the rest of my sentence. I stated, "As it stands, the -7MAX, -9MAX, and -10MAX are all essentially sales flops compared to Boeing's own -8MAX." I was not comparing any of these 737 variants to the A321 in that sentence, I was only comparing them to each other, and in that sense, the 737-8MAX has the vast majority of orders.

What I meant to say is that, even though the 737-10MAX may not be a "flop" on its own right, it is a "flop" compared to the success of the 737-8MAX, because the -8MAX has most of the orders. I also meant to point out that the continued obsession on this site about 739, 73X, and A321 completely discounts the importance of smaller narrowbodies and seems to be born out of the MOM/757 Replacement hype (which is being beaten to death).

Lastly, I was pointing out that any detraction against the 73X is not necessarily extrapolated into a denigration of Boeing and its 737 program as a whole, but rather that the program will be fine as long as Boeing can sell the 737-8MAX.
 
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lightsaber
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Re: Boeing 737 MAX 10 vs Airbus A321neo analysis

Sun Jan 21, 2018 6:41 pm

enzo011 wrote:
Newbiepilot wrote:
I am fine debating what market acceptance means. It sounds like we are beyond the sales flop comment from another poster. Just remember the context in threads about A330-900 which has 214 orders from 12 customers in over 3 years and whether that plane has market acceptance.



I see your orange and I raise you my apple and assert that it is indeed sweeter than your orange.

Newbiepilot wrote:
Perhaps you didn’t notice this comment in post 184 this thread.

Swadian wrote:

As it stands, the -7MAX, -9MAX, and -10MAX are all essentially sales flops.



There is no strawman . Nice try


If you are able to have an opinion on what market acceptance means, posters can assert that models in a family has been a flop on their own metrics. I am not posting the thoughts of Swadian as I have no idea why he thinks all but the 737-8MAX is a flop, but the share of sold models so far for the 737MAX is as follows (according to the Wiki page):

737-7MAX - 1.4% of sales (57)
737-8MAX - 50.50.5% (2053)
737-9MAX - 1.6% (65)
737-10MAX - 6.7% (274)
Unknown - 38.5% (1567)

So what we can see is that almost 40% of the orders gained are unknown. So there may a bigger percentage of 737-10 on order. But we can only debate the numbers that Boeing has released. Seems obvious to me that they didn't want to have a direct comparison of the 737-9 and the A321 as the numbers were showing a big advantage to the A321 and one way to avoid talking about it is by ignoring it for a short while whilst they were working on a solution to close the gap. I am sure opinions will vary on the validity of this but Airbus seem to have no problem publishing the different numbers for each model when airlines are free to change models, I fail to see any valid reason why Boeing couldn't do it as well.


The -10MAX has sold 274 already. That is almost enough for a good resale market. That means leasing companies won't charge a premium to lease -10MAX. So, we'll see more sold. For as airlines are able to acquire financing, they'll order more.

Obviously the -8MAX will have an extremely liquid secondary market. Leasing companies that back the -7MAX and -9MAX are hosed (leasors will be unable to resell them at proper rates and any early returns will be a loss). So any leasing company not already obligated to finance those two models will insist on terms that cover their risk. The -10MAX will have much more liquid terms.

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keesje
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Re: Boeing 737 MAX 10 vs Airbus A321neo analysis

Sun Jan 21, 2018 8:58 pm

Swadian wrote:
Newbiepilot wrote:
keesje wrote:

As a small detail, nobody called the 737-10 a "flop". Newbiepilot, the question is why do you suggest it..? Extract some responds on something (not) said? Get away from numbers and switch to a symantics discussion? A strawman?

I was just commenting "market acceptance" was maybe a bit rich for the current 737-10 orderbook.


Perhaps you didn’t notice this comment in post 184 this thread.

Swadian wrote:

As it stands, the -7MAX, -9MAX, and -10MAX are all essentially sales flops.


There is no strawman ;). Nice try


You conveniently cut off the rest of my sentence. I stated, "As it stands, the -7MAX, -9MAX, and -10MAX are all essentially sales flops compared to Boeing's own -8MAX."..


Nice try ? :scratchchin:
"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway
 
frmrCapCadet
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Re: Boeing 737 MAX 10 vs Airbus A321neo analysis

Sun Jan 21, 2018 9:16 pm

With A and B having huge backlogs airlines are needing to order planes years ahead of their actual need. The main flexibility they have is choosing the actual model just a few years ahead of time, but also altering the date of receiving the plane.
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Newbiepilot
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Re: Boeing 737 MAX 10 vs Airbus A321neo analysis

Mon Jan 22, 2018 12:14 am

keesje wrote:
Swadian wrote:
Newbiepilot wrote:

Perhaps you didn’t notice this comment in post 184 this thread.



There is no strawman ;). Nice try


You conveniently cut off the rest of my sentence. I stated, "As it stands, the -7MAX, -9MAX, and -10MAX are all essentially sales flops compared to Boeing's own -8MAX."..


Nice try ? :scratchchin:


As much fun as these A vs B debates are, it isnt a war where one side has to win and the other loses. Going back to the beginning of the thread, the economics of the 737-10 and A321neo are expected to be similar. Sales most likely wont be the same given the vast existing A321 fleet and a variety if other reasons, but i certainly expect more 737-10 sales too. There likely will be a number of competitive sales campaigns between the A321neo and 737-10.
 
Planeyguy
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Re: Boeing 737 MAX 10 vs Airbus A321neo analysis

Mon Jan 22, 2018 12:24 am

speedbored wrote:
Planeyguy wrote:
speedbored wrote:
My own opinion, based on the data that I have seen is that the MAX-10 has up-to a couple of % advantage on short missions and that the 321neo has up-to 5% advantage on longer missions.

But let's just go with the opinion of the article in the opening post, that the operating economics are very similar. If that is the case, why would we be surprised that airlines would choose the aircraft that provides a more spacious interior for passengers and crew, and a better working environment, and simpler handling, for staff working baggage and cargo.

Believe it or not, airlines do actually care about their passengers and staff (as long as it doesn't lose them money, of course :D )

So are you saying that crew and passengers prefer the A321 to the 737-10? That is a bold claim. Where is your source? For me as a passenger, the 737 feels exactly like the A321.You are just saying that because you are a Airbus fanboy

I never made any claim as to what the passengers prefer (though there have been multiple surveys that make it clear what passengers actually do prefer) but the simple fact is that the A320 cabin is bigger so why would airlines not choose the extra space at no cost option? If you read all of this thread, you will find a ramper who has actually posted that they find the A320 far more pleasant to work in the hold - bad backs and aching necks are very common amongst the people who have to work in the 737 hold.

And no, I am not an Airbus fanboy. I'm an aviation fan and my own personal favourite aircraft, after Concorde, is actually a Boeing.


So are you saying that one single ramper represents every other person who flown both the A321 and the 737? Then what do the bold letters mean? I will only believe you if you provide me with a source.
 
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keesje
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Re: Boeing 737 MAX 10 vs Airbus A321neo analysis

Mon Jan 22, 2018 7:23 am

I think a few of the ongoing campaigns are with United and Air Canada. Both have MAX on order, United has a requirement to replace 757s at medium range/ capacity flights. Air Canada has reduced it's -9 order and has not switched to the -10 so far, while they added A321CEO's using containers/pallets.

With futher enhancements on the A321s in progress it will be increasingly hard to not discuss scenarios on Mobile build, Pratt powered A321s.

Image
"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway
 
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seahawk
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Re: Boeing 737 MAX 10 vs Airbus A321neo analysis

Mon Jan 22, 2018 7:42 am

And still no airline will fall because they chose the 737 and not the A321 or vice versa. Over the vast majority of missions the difference is minimal and adding one more comfort seat row or not, has a bigger effect on CASM than the choice of the aircraft. At the edges of the envelope the 737 is ahead on short routes and the A321 on long routes, this can be a factor depending on your route network.But in the end it is nothing that can not be compensated by a slightly larger discount from the competition.

The only clear advantage for the A321 is the use of cargo containers, as the 737 cannot match this if the customer prefers it.
 
Nicoeddf
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Re: Boeing 737 MAX 10 vs Airbus A321neo analysis

Mon Jan 22, 2018 8:08 am

Planeyguy wrote:
speedbored wrote:
Planeyguy wrote:
So are you saying that crew and passengers prefer the A321 to the 737-10? That is a bold claim. Where is your source? For me as a passenger, the 737 feels exactly like the A321.You are just saying that because you are a Airbus fanboy

I never made any claim as to what the passengers prefer (though there have been multiple surveys that make it clear what passengers actually do prefer) but the simple fact is that the A320 cabin is bigger so why would airlines not choose the extra space at no cost option? If you read all of this thread, you will find a ramper who has actually posted that they find the A320 far more pleasant to work in the hold - bad backs and aching necks are very common amongst the people who have to work in the 737 hold.

And no, I am not an Airbus fanboy. I'm an aviation fan and my own personal favourite aircraft, after Concorde, is actually a Boeing.


So are you saying that one single ramper represents every other person who flown both the A321 and the 737? Then what do the bold letters mean? I will only believe you if you provide me with a source.


Seriously dude, calm down, it's just airplanes we are talking here. Nobody wants to steal your toy.
Having flown and worked around both extensively, yes, the size of the frame makes IN MY OPINION for a smoother and preferable working and travelling environment. And the 320 is roomier in any way conceivable.
Does that count every other person? No. Does Speedbored need you to believe him? No. Do airlines stop buying 737s or are flights in 737s unbearable? No.
Are you a fanboy much, judged by the amount of sensitivity you obviously have for the topic? Seems so.
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Nicoeddf
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Re: Boeing 737 MAX 10 vs Airbus A321neo analysis

Mon Jan 22, 2018 8:09 am

seahawk wrote:
And still no airline will fall because they chose the 737 and not the A321 or vice versa.


YES! And that sums up most comparisons we do extensively between different Aircraft types on a.net.
Enslave yourself to the divine disguised as salvation
that your bought with your sacrifice
Deception justified for your holy design
High on our platform spewing out your crimes
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Richard28
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Re: Boeing 737 MAX 10 vs Airbus A321neo analysis

Mon Jan 22, 2018 8:53 am

seahawk wrote:
The only clear advantage for the A321 is the use of cargo containers, as the 737 cannot match this if the customer prefers it.


The wider A321 cabin could also be an advantage where the airline needs premium seating at the pointy end - I'm not sure the AA A321T or B6 Mint configurations would fit into the 737 width cabin?
 
RalXWB
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Re: Boeing 737 MAX 10 vs Airbus A321neo analysis

Mon Jan 22, 2018 9:09 am

Funny to read that according to some experts here the 321 has no or only 1 advantage. I prefer going back to reality. #salesfiguresdonotlie

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