AA747123
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Rumor: CX to leave OW for Star

Thu Dec 14, 2017 1:34 am

A friend of mine who works for UA at IAD, just got out of a high level meeting with senior management from UA, and he was told on the launch of CX at IAD that CX will leave OneWorld for Star Alliance. Interesting news, wonder if BA/IB will join them at Star? I could see Quantas leafing OW as well given UA significant presents in Austailia as well
Last edited by qf789 on Thu Dec 14, 2017 2:28 am, edited 1 time in total.
Reason: Edited title for clarity
 
Qantas16
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Re: CX to leave OW for Star

Thu Dec 14, 2017 1:42 am

AA747123 wrote:
A friend of mine who works for UA at IAD, just got out of a high level meeting with senior management from UA, and he was told on the launch of CX at IAD that CX will leave OneWorld for Star Alliance. Interesting news, wonder if BA/IB will join them at Star? I could see Quantas leafing OW as well given UA significant presents in Austailia as well


If you can't even spell Qantas correctly, I'm very skeptical. Also if you think BA/IB would leave OW, you clearly know very little about the dynamics of any of the alliances.
Last edited by Qantas16 on Thu Dec 14, 2017 1:43 am, edited 1 time in total.
 
AWACSooner
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Re: CX to leave OW for Star

Thu Dec 14, 2017 1:43 am

AA747123 wrote:
Quantas

:boggled:
 
flyguy84
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Re: CX to leave OW for Star

Thu Dec 14, 2017 1:44 am

Mods: suggest thread title be changed to indicate a "Rumor."

There have been talks that China Southern will leave SkyTeam and move to One World which would then see Cathay leave One World and move to Star.
SFO
 
jubguy3
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Re: CX to leave OW for Star

Thu Dec 14, 2017 1:47 am

[*]Wasn't there a post literally a couple days ago from a german news site from Cathay Pacific explaining that they were happy with their position in OW? I wouldn't imagine China Southern joining star instead. Maybe China Southern should focus on strengthening partnerships instead of letting China Eastern stop all over them and strengthen joint ventures especially when China Southern was the first allied Chinese carrier. I see this as being laziness on CZ's part. Or maybe MU should have joined OW in the first place...

Maybe SkyTeam should just kick China Southern out and leave them without an alliance. Punishment for causing a ruckus. :hissyfit:

I don't see why China Southern is so keen on joining the weakest alliance when it's clear that competition doesn't have as much of a critical impact in China as it does elsewhere anyways. Let's see, MAS is failing, Air Berlin just collapsed, Aer Lingus voted to stay out of OW despite being a child of the OW mega-corp. JAL is having trouble growing and kept threatening to leave for SkyTeam (but didn't). CX is apparently being forced out of OW by a bus-in-the-sky Chinese carrier. How many carriers would give up their relationships with CX for CZ if they joined Oneworld? China Southern should ideally be a stronger participant in SkyTeam than MU but I don't think joining oneworld will fix their problems.
Last edited by jubguy3 on Thu Dec 14, 2017 1:56 am, edited 1 time in total.
 
jfk777
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Re: CX to leave OW for Star

Thu Dec 14, 2017 1:51 am

The reason it could be believable is that Air China is a large Cathay shareholder and is in Star. One reason this may not happen is that Star has way too many airlines in the Star among them CX frenemy Singapore Airlines. Doubtful that BA/IB would leave OW for Star since they have a huge JV with American Airlines and Lufthansa has a JV with United. IT is so unlikely the EU would let BA/IB + LH and AA + UA in the same alliance. Cathay works well in the OW alliance especially with all its flights to the UK, Australia and the USA.
 
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legacyins
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Re: CX to leave OW for Star

Thu Dec 14, 2017 2:00 am

jfk777 wrote:
The reason it could be believable is that Air China is a large Cathay shareholder and is in Star. One reason this may not happen is that Star has way too many airlines in the Star among them CX frenemy Singapore Airlines. Doubtful that BA/IB would leave OW for Star since they have a huge JV with American Airlines and Lufthansa has a JV with United. IT is so unlikely the EU would let BA/IB + LH and AA + UA in the same alliance. Cathay works well in the OW alliance especially with all its flights to the UK, Australia and the USA.


Your contradicting yourself. In your first post , you stated if your wondered if BA would leave OW and now you are saying they will not. This thread should be locked without a linked source.
Last edited by legacyins on Thu Dec 14, 2017 2:11 am, edited 1 time in total.
 
jubguy3
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Re: CX to leave OW for Star

Thu Dec 14, 2017 2:02 am

jfk777 wrote:
The reason it could be believable is that Air China is a large Cathay shareholder and is in Star. One reason this may not happen is that Star has way too many airlines in the Star among them CX frenemy Singapore Airlines. Doubtful that BA/IB would leave OW for Star since they have a huge JV with American Airlines and Lufthansa has a JV with United. IT is so unlikely the EU would let BA/IB + LH and AA + UA in the same alliance. Cathay works well in the OW alliance especially with all its flights to the UK, Australia and the USA.


OW will collapse without IAG or AA. Almost every strategic partnership exists through AA or IAG, They would be left with only finnair and S7 in Europe if BA/IB left, killing AA's european and British presence and no airline alliance will succeed without a US partner (I predict that if a new airline alliance forms, it will form out of the combined holdings of AS, B6, and HA). Its ironic that such a strong FF program in the US has such a weak presence outside of the anglosphere world.
 
NichCage
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Re: CX to leave OW for Star

Thu Dec 14, 2017 2:03 am

I don't think it will happen. Just because there launching service to an Star Alliance hub doesn't mean there switching alliances. For example, they launched flights to ZRH which is an Star Alliance hub and they didn't switch alliances at all.
 
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neomax
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Re: CX to leave OW for Star

Thu Dec 14, 2017 2:13 am

I actually do believe it and it would make a lot of sense especially in the context of IAD if true. Many people were joking in the other thread about how CX plans to make IAD work without any feed or why IAD was picked over some other bigger destinations- I guess now we have our answer. It looks like one of the reasons IAD was picked over other destinations is that it would be both a high yield destination and Star hub for CX to gain feed. So now:

EWR: Yes
IAD: Yes
ORD: Yes
IAH: No
DEN: No
SFO: Yes

I don’t know if we’ll see DEN-HKG anytime soon, but IAH-HKG may finally become a reality with CX if it indeed does join Star.
 
anrec80
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Re: CX to leave OW for Star

Thu Dec 14, 2017 2:18 am

Not that I would admire something like this - I use BA miles transferred from credit cards for CX flights and upgrades. BA requires fewer miles for same available upgrade than CX Asia miles.
 
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neomax
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Re: CX to leave OW for Star

Thu Dec 14, 2017 2:18 am

jubguy3 wrote:
Wasn't there a post literally a couple days ago from a german news site from Cathay Pacific explaining that they were happy with their position in OW?


I’m pretty sure they just did that to cover their ass most likely because of an NDA that prohibits them from discussing it publicly until its official announcement. Specifically, QR joining OW comes to mind as I remember AAB denied any plans to join OW until as recent as the day before the announcement.
 
zakuivcustom
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Re: CX to leave OW for Star

Thu Dec 14, 2017 2:23 am

I'll believe it when I see it.

This is the how many times that the same rumor has been going on?

CX codeshare with LH = CX join *A
CA has shares in CX = CX join *A
CX starting IAD = CX join *A

It would definitely be a major shakeup if true. Maybe both CZ AND HU (along with HX, which means OW would still have a presence in HKG) join OW once CX leaves? :D
 
xiaotung
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Re: CX to leave OW for Star

Thu Dec 14, 2017 2:28 am

This got me excited until OP says BA/IB would leave OW and join them. The QF comment is even more baffling.
 
downdata
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Re: Rumor: CX to leave OW for Star

Thu Dec 14, 2017 2:29 am

Yes and UA will be joining ST tomorrow. Sheesh.
 
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neomax
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Re: CX to leave OW for Star

Thu Dec 14, 2017 2:36 am

xiaotung wrote:
This got me excited until OP says BA/IB would leave OW and join them. The QF comment is even more baffling.


The CX comment is an actual quote, BA/QF is (ridiculous) speculation. I don’t give any weight to the latter but quite a lot to the former.
 
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ihikhi
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Re: Rumor: CX to leave OW for Star

Thu Dec 14, 2017 2:40 am

Thats maybe only a rumors to me as I see no source yet.
 
HPAEAA
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Re: CX to leave OW for Star

Thu Dec 14, 2017 2:46 am

neomax wrote:
xiaotung wrote:
This got me excited until OP says BA/IB would leave OW and join them. The QF comment is even more baffling.


The CX comment is an actual quote, BA/QF is (ridiculous) speculation. I don’t give any weight to the latter but quite a lot to the former.

Agree but would hate to see them depart OW. Just out of curiosity, with the AA domestic hub down the road at DCA is this just a play to bolster the OW route map out of DC for Corporate contracts? I know BA, LATAM, & Aer Lingus (Last one is not OW but there is speculation based on IAG's ownership now about the future of that).
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xiaotung
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Re: CX to leave OW for Star

Thu Dec 14, 2017 2:48 am

neomax wrote:
xiaotung wrote:
This got me excited until OP says BA/IB would leave OW and join them. The QF comment is even more baffling.


The CX comment is an actual quote, BA/QF is (ridiculous) speculation. I don’t give any weight to the latter but quite a lot to the former.


Makes you wonder how accurate the quote is.

Having said that, CX currently counts 7 Star members as their partners. If they added UA, they might as well leave OW. Do they have any significant JV with a OW member?
 
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zeke
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Re: CX to leave OW for Star

Thu Dec 14, 2017 3:12 am

jfk777 wrote:
The reason it could be believable is that Air China is a large Cathay shareholder and is in Star.


And CX is s large shareholder of Air China, and Qatar is a large shareholder of Cathay, IAG, Latam, and Meridiana.

My tea leaves this morning are not connecting the dots of conspiracy.
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LAXdude1023
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Re: Rumor: CX to leave OW for Star

Thu Dec 14, 2017 3:18 am

It makes some (emphasis on "some") sense for CX to be in Star, but it makes absolutely zero sense for QF to leave One World. They have a really good thing going there. Right now, the only foe QF has in One World is CX. If CX did leave, thats all the more reason for QF to be happy in One World.
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Dominion301
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Re: CX to leave OW for Star

Thu Dec 14, 2017 3:30 am

zakuivcustom wrote:
I'll believe it when I see it.

This is the how many times that the same rumor has been going on?

CX codeshare with LH = CX join *A
CA has shares in CX = CX join *A
CX starting IAD = CX join *A

It would definitely be a major shakeup if true. Maybe both CZ AND HU (along with HX, which means OW would still have a presence in HKG) join OW once CX leaves? :D


Such a move would not only greatly weaken OW, it would also shakeup some carriers within Star such as SQ and AC (e.g. CX' 5th freedom route out YVR to JFK that competes with AC's 787 service to EWR).
 
waoz1
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Re: Rumor: CX to leave OW for Star

Thu Dec 14, 2017 3:36 am

Qatar just bought a stake in Cathay so not sure they would be happy with a change as they are in OW too.
 
blandy62
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Re: Rumor: CX to leave OW for Star

Thu Dec 14, 2017 4:24 am

not sure if SQ and TG would be so happy about it. TG probably doesn't have much say in Star but SQ does...
 
737max8
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Re: Rumor: CX to leave OW for Star

Thu Dec 14, 2017 4:36 am

Came into thread expecting Zeke comment, was not disappointed.

I just want to see something happen that ends up with CX serving DFW :D
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LAXintl
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Re: Rumor: CX to leave OW for Star

Thu Dec 14, 2017 4:48 am

The manner the Star alliance governance works is that an airline needs to be invited and sponsored by an existing member and all members must vote unanimously accept the applicant.

The larger the alliance gets, the harder it can be to find unanimity amongst members.

Also if it matters the current CEO of Star is Singaporean Jeffrey Goh
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usflyer msp
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Re: Rumor: CX to leave OW for Star

Thu Dec 14, 2017 4:56 am

I suspect that this rumour is nonsense.

CX is upset about potentially being in the same alliance as CZ but is perfectly fine with being in the same alliance as BR, TG, SQ, CA, and ZH?

Absurd - CX is not going anywhere...
 
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ksfo777
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Re: Rumor: CX to leave OW for Star

Thu Dec 14, 2017 5:15 am

If this were true, this would be great news. I personally prefer CX over SQ in Star Alliance :)
 
jubguy3
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Re: Rumor: CX to leave OW for Star

Thu Dec 14, 2017 5:20 am

usflyer msp wrote:
I suspect that this rumour is nonsense.

CX is upset about potentially being in the same alliance as CZ but is perfectly fine with being in the same alliance as BR, TG, SQ, CA, and ZH?

Absurd - CX is not going anywhere...


It would be a little different. Guangzhou and Hong Kong are essentially part of the same metropolitan area. China Southern still attracts premium traffic and could decimate CX. ZH is in the same metropolitan area but they only operate one widebody aircraft. Not the same market as CX and they actually codeshare with Cathay Dragon.
 
Austin787
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Re: Rumor: CX to leave OW for Star

Thu Dec 14, 2017 5:26 am

blandy62 wrote:
not sure if SQ and TG would be so happy about it. TG probably doesn't have much say in Star but SQ does...

Eva would probably have something to say too
 
HPAEAA
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Re: Rumor: CX to leave OW for Star

Thu Dec 14, 2017 5:40 am

jubguy3 wrote:
usflyer msp wrote:
I suspect that this rumour is nonsense.

CX is upset about potentially being in the same alliance as CZ but is perfectly fine with being in the same alliance as BR, TG, SQ, CA, and ZH?

Absurd - CX is not going anywhere...


It would be a little different. Guangzhou and Hong Kong are essentially part of the same metropolitan area. China Southern still attracts premium traffic and could decimate CX. ZH is in the same metropolitan area but they only operate one widebody aircraft. Not the same market as CX and they actually codeshare with Cathay Dragon.


Does Guangzhou make up that much of CX's premium traffic? From what i understand the boarder crossing can be quite difficult & time consuming... While CX might be upset about AA entering the HKG market & potential addition of a Chinese carrier (china southern) into the alliance I don't see this playing out based on the game theory... CX has a far superior premium product & will continue to attract the business traveler via corporate traffic, by switching form the largest US carrier to the 3rd, to attract the connecting flow to one more spoke in their network doesn't make a lot of sense.
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jubguy3
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Re: Rumor: CX to leave OW for Star

Thu Dec 14, 2017 6:38 am

HPAEAA wrote:
jubguy3 wrote:
usflyer msp wrote:
I suspect that this rumour is nonsense.

CX is upset about potentially being in the same alliance as CZ but is perfectly fine with being in the same alliance as BR, TG, SQ, CA, and ZH?

Absurd - CX is not going anywhere...


It would be a little different. Guangzhou and Hong Kong are essentially part of the same metropolitan area. China Southern still attracts premium traffic and could decimate CX. ZH is in the same metropolitan area but they only operate one widebody aircraft. Not the same market as CX and they actually codeshare with Cathay Dragon.


Does Guangzhou make up that much of CX's premium traffic? From what i understand the boarder crossing can be quite difficult & time consuming... While CX might be upset about AA entering the HKG market & potential addition of a Chinese carrier (china southern) into the alliance I don't see this playing out based on the game theory... CX has a far superior premium product & will continue to attract the business traveler via corporate traffic, by switching form the largest US carrier to the 3rd, to attract the connecting flow to one more spoke in their network doesn't make a lot of sense.


But business traffic can only be so profitable for Cathay. They are struggling and they know that they can't afford to lose any connecting traffic or general Pearl River traffic to China Southern in economy.
 
sincx
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Re: Rumor: CX to leave OW for Star

Thu Dec 14, 2017 7:20 am

HPAEAA wrote:
From what i understand the boarder crossing can be quite difficult & time consuming...

There are ferries from Guangzhou, Shenzhen, and Macau that bring passengers directly to the secured, post-exit-immigration departures area at Hong Kong International Airport, so it's the same amount of hassle as leaving from a mainland China airport (mainland exit inspection only).
 
coolfish1103
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Re: Rumor: CX to leave OW for Star

Thu Dec 14, 2017 7:41 am

HPAEAA wrote:
It would be a little different. Guangzhou and Hong Kong are essentially part of the same metropolitan area. China Southern still attracts premium traffic and could decimate CX. ZH is in the same metropolitan area but they only operate one widebody aircraft. Not the same market as CX and they actually codeshare with Cathay Dragon.


Does Guangzhou make up that much of CX's premium traffic? From what i understand the boarder crossing can be quite difficult & time consuming... While CX might be upset about AA entering the HKG market & potential addition of a Chinese carrier (china southern) into the alliance I don't see this playing out based on the game theory... CX has a far superior premium product & will continue to attract the business traveler via corporate traffic, by switching form the largest US carrier to the 3rd, to attract the connecting flow to one more spoke in their network doesn't make a lot of sense.[/quote]

Anyone who travels South of Guangzhou, particularly from Dongguan and Zhongshan, will choose to exit via Hong Kong or Macau via ferry, train or auto.

The traveling time from Baiyun Airport to these locations starts from 2 hours. Shenzhen, Zhuhai and other places would be 4-5 hours. Hong Kong Airport itself provides ferry to some of these places and some goes via auto would take max 2 hours with the immigration and customs included.
 
LupineChemist
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Re: Rumor: CX to leave OW for Star

Thu Dec 14, 2017 9:07 am

The Pearl River Delta area has a population of around 120 million people. It's absolutely staggering, but I think it would support both CAN and HKG as hubs without too much stepping on toes. For sixth freedom connections, CZ can concentrate more on the value driven economy side while CX can concentrate more on the premium side. Not that BA should be a prime example for premium travel, but they have relatively few economy seats in a huge number of their planes, and could be an example.
 
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vhqpa
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Re: Rumor: CX to leave OW for Star

Thu Dec 14, 2017 9:56 am

Never say never but I don't buy for a minute that there is about to be a large scale mutiny from oneworld involving CX, IAG and Quantas (sic).
"There you go ladies and gentleman we're through Mach 1 the speed of sound no bumps no bangs... CONCORDE"
 
bostonvancouver
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Re: CX to leave OW for Star

Thu Dec 14, 2017 3:30 pm

zakuivcustom wrote:
I'll believe it when I see it.

This is the how many times that the same rumor has been going on?

CX codeshare with LH = CX join *A
CA has shares in CX = CX join *A
CX starting IAD = CX join *A

It would definitely be a major shakeup if true. Maybe both CZ AND HU (along with HX, which means OW would still have a presence in HKG) join OW once CX leaves? :D
There's also the codeshare w/ AC and NZ
 
SYDSpotter
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Re: Rumor: CX to leave OW for Star

Thu Dec 14, 2017 3:41 pm

AA747123 wrote:
I could see Quantas leafing OW as well given UA significant presents in Austailia as well


I don't....

You have a very US centric view of the world. SQ and TG have an even bigger presence in Australia than UA but that hasn't made QF jump ship.

AA747123 wrote:
A friend of mine who works for UA at IAD, just got out of a high level meeting with senior management from UA, and he was told on the launch of CX at IAD that CX will leave OneWorld for Star Alliance.


Ah of course, it's either the "close friend" who works for X airline, friend of pilot who works for X, uncle's 2nd cousin who works for X or friend's friend who works for airline X.
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InnsbruckFlyer
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Re: Rumor: CX to leave OW for Star

Thu Dec 14, 2017 3:59 pm

ksfo777 wrote:
If this were true, this would be great news. I personally prefer CX over SQ in Star Alliance :)


Agreed. Having flown both in J, I'd say that CX tops SQ.
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zakuivcustom
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Re: CX to leave OW for Star

Thu Dec 14, 2017 4:41 pm

bostonvancouver wrote:
zakuivcustom wrote:
I'll believe it when I see it.

This is the how many times that the same rumor has been going on?

CX codeshare with LH = CX join *A
CA has shares in CX = CX join *A
CX starting IAD = CX join *A

It would definitely be a major shakeup if true. Maybe both CZ AND HU (along with HX, which means OW would still have a presence in HKG) join OW once CX leaves? :D
There's also the codeshare w/ AC and NZ


Let see...

Looking at another OW airline (JL). Codeshare with SU, AF, CI, CZ, MU, KE, and VN (all Skyteam). Maybe they'll go to Skyteam after all? :rotfl:

On the other hand, from Bloomberg:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... e-from-9-9

No matter what, QR is not going away soon :scratchchin:
 
nmdrdh787
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Re: Rumor: CX to leave OW for Star

Thu Dec 14, 2017 4:53 pm

LMAO I love rumor threads like this... always start by claiming someone gave them insider, confidential info, then they spread it on here.

I can see how this could maybe happen but its such a long shot, and come on claiming your friend at UA gave you this? Laughable.
 
usflyer msp
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Re: Rumor: CX to leave OW for Star

Thu Dec 14, 2017 5:04 pm

nmdrdh787 wrote:
LMAO I love rumor threads like this... always start by claiming someone gave them insider, confidential info, then they spread it on here.

I can see how this could maybe happen but its such a long shot, and come on claiming your friend at UA gave you this? Laughable.


Indeed, the low and mid-level level UA staff would find out about things like this at the same time the public does. They have no insider info...
 
737MAX7
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Re: Rumor: CX to leave OW for Star

Thu Dec 14, 2017 5:11 pm

I hope it happens just to spite a few posters on here! :lol:
 
LupineChemist
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Re: Rumor: CX to leave OW for Star

Thu Dec 14, 2017 5:16 pm

I think this rumor is mostly a reaction to the CZ to OW rumor. I really don't see why they couldn't both be OW, there isn't that much competing traffic despite the geographic proximity between CAN and HKG.
 
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VCEflyboy
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Re: Rumor: CX to leave OW for Star

Thu Dec 14, 2017 5:41 pm

Yes there’s no way SQ or even LH would agree
 
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American 767
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Re: Rumor: CX to leave OW for Star

Thu Dec 14, 2017 6:00 pm

This is not the first time that we see this happening, we have seen other airlines choosing Star over OW before:

LOT left OW for Star, oh well they weren't really in OW but there was a time they were codesharing with AA.
LX almost came to OW until the last moment when they decided to go to Star back in the mid 2000s.
BD, which was codesharing with AA went to Star (yes I know BD was swallowed into BA, but I'm talking about the time when BD was in business).
SN was codesharing with AA until the late 2000s when they went to Star.
SA also was codesharing with AA back in the mid 1990s.
Wasn't TK also codesharing with AA?

So the point I'm making is a lot of airlines that ended up going to Star were codesharing with AA. All the ones I mention above chose Star over OW!
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toxtethogrady
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Re: Rumor: CX to leave OW for Star

Thu Dec 14, 2017 6:38 pm

If this is indeed confirmed, I guess we can dust off those rumors of IAH-HKG...
 
Kashmon
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Re: Rumor: CX to leave OW for Star

Thu Dec 14, 2017 8:22 pm

to people that think CX will not care if CZ joins Oneworld
by their reasoning AA would not care if SouthWest joined OW ( hypothetically)
or AS joining Skyteam....
I mean, Lovefield, Baltimore are all DIFFERENT markets...

sigh...
 
zakuivcustom
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Re: Rumor: CX to leave OW for Star

Thu Dec 14, 2017 9:13 pm

Kashmon wrote:
to people that think CX will not care if CZ joins Oneworld
by their reasoning AA would not care if SouthWest joined OW ( hypothetically)
or AS joining Skyteam....
I mean, Lovefield, Baltimore are all DIFFERENT markets...

sigh...


Huh?

You realized that CAN and HKG are MUCH further apart than DAL vs DFW or BWI vs DCA, right?

The equivalent of those comparison would be HKG vs SZX, NOT HKG vs CAN.

Think SFO to SMF (86mi) when it comes to HKG to CAN (85mi). HKG and CAN are far enough that there are actually schedule flights between the two (Yes, only 2/day, and yes, it's pretty much for connection only. But hey, only 3 flights per day between SFO and SMF also).

And size of population. Guangzhou Urban Area alone has 11.5M people (Municipal limit-wise it's 14M). Its neighbor to the south, Shenzhen, is at 10.9M. Hong Kong by itself is 7.3M. There's still Dongguan (between Shenzhen and Guangzhou) that has 8.2M people. And I didn't even count Foshan (7.2M people). The whole greater DFW metroplex (CSA) only has 7.35M people, while Baltimore-Washington CSA is at 9.5M. That's what? 30% of the population?
 
ldvaviation
Posts: 1241
Joined: Sun Dec 21, 2008 7:21 pm

Re: Rumor: CX to leave OW for Star

Thu Dec 14, 2017 9:34 pm

toxtethogrady wrote:
If this is indeed confirmed, I guess we can dust off those rumors of IAH-HKG...


It has NOT been confirmed.

In many ways, it makes no sense.

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