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rotating14
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Iran deals might be in jeopardy

Fri Dec 15, 2017 7:47 pm

The Trump administration is advancing a strategy that could derail efforts by Boeing Co. and Airbus SE to sell hundreds of jetliners to Iranian airlines, U.S. officials said.

The two aerospace giants have lined up deals over the past 15 months that have been left in limbo as the White House reassessed its Iran policy and has threatened to walk away from an international nuclear deal if Congress and European partners don’t address concerns, with only a handful of Airbus planes so far delivered.



I personally don't think that it will happen but if successful, it will not bode well with both OEM's and Iran.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/boeing-air ... 1513360961
 
CX747
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Re: Iran deals might be in jeopardy

Fri Dec 15, 2017 7:56 pm

I don't see the sales going through. The question is, if we remove the Iranian deal aircraft numbers, does Airbus lose last year's (2016) sales competition?
"History does not long entrust the care of freedom to the weak or timid." D. Eisenhower
 
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scbriml
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Re: Iran deals might be in jeopardy

Fri Dec 15, 2017 10:17 pm

CX747 wrote:
I don't see the sales going through. The question is, if we remove the Iranian deal aircraft numbers, does Airbus lose last year's (2016) sales competition?


No because those planes are already in the process of being delivered.

If the remainder end up being cancelled, they'll be removed in the year they are cancelled, not when they were ordered.
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neomax
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Re: Iran deals might be in jeopardy

Fri Dec 15, 2017 10:21 pm

Trump can definitely block Boeing but I would be very surprised if the EU doesn't support Airbus.
 
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Dutchy
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Re: Iran deals might be in jeopardy

Fri Dec 15, 2017 10:30 pm

neomax wrote:
Trump can definitely block Boeing but I would be very surprised if the EU doesn't support Airbus.


American components can probably be blocked.
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FlyRow
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Re: Iran deals might be in jeopardy

Fri Dec 15, 2017 10:50 pm

Dont we. Get this story every few months, and in the end (rightly) nothing changes?
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IranianMan123
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Re: Iran deals might be in jeopardy

Fri Dec 15, 2017 11:07 pm

Only reason why IR has not received any more aircraft, from Airbus, since March, is the problems with financing. Several aircraft were supposed to go IR but were not taken up because of the financing. Once this issue is solved I am sure the Airbus deliveries will go ahead. The Boeing deal is the one I feel will not go ahead.
 
DarthLobster
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Re: Iran deals might be in jeopardy

Sat Dec 16, 2017 12:24 am

FlyRow wrote:
Dont we. Get this story every few months, and in the end (rightly) nothing changes?


Yup. Lots of hot air but zero action.
 
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LTU932
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Re: Iran deals might be in jeopardy

Sat Dec 16, 2017 1:20 am

Dutchy wrote:
neomax wrote:
Trump can definitely block Boeing but I would be very surprised if the EU doesn't support Airbus.


American components can probably be blocked.
Not probably. If the US denies the export of US designed components to certain countries, then it doesn't matter if it's Airbus, Boeing or Sukhoi, they cannot be sold to that country, period. If the affected companies circumvent or even blatantly disregard that export block, they will be in a world of trouble. And we can only guess what kind of trouble, likely but not restricted to fines or even outright sanctions against the company responsible under federal law.
Sometimes the only thing more dangerous than a question is an answer. - Ferengi Rule of Acquisition 208
 
ltbewr
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Re: Iran deals might be in jeopardy

Sat Dec 16, 2017 1:26 am

IranianMan123 wrote:
Only reason why IR has not received any more aircraft, from Airbus, since March, is the problems with financing. Several aircraft were supposed to go IR but were not taken up because of the financing. Once this issue is solved I am sure the Airbus deliveries will go ahead. The Boeing deal is the one I feel will not go ahead.

I suspect major USA banks have put pressure on EU and UK banks and finance companies and along with the threat of war or sanctions against Iran (by the USA and/or Israel) that has scared them off too.
 
amax1977
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Re: Iran deals might be in jeopardy

Sat Dec 16, 2017 1:50 am

Donald is a businessman/showman. He won't make his business partners on Boeing's board mad. Mark my word. Both Boeing's and Airbus's deals with IR will go through.
 
Skywatcher
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Re: Iran deals might be in jeopardy

Sat Dec 16, 2017 4:59 am

Maybe the Russians/Chinese/Brazilians/Japanese would fill the gap? I'm getting really fed up with this political nonsense from POTUS. Is it really so awful that Iranians want to fly on modern aircraft?
 
Planesmart
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Re: Iran deals might be in jeopardy

Sat Dec 16, 2017 5:29 am

ltbewr wrote:
IranianMan123 wrote:
Only reason why IR has not received any more aircraft, from Airbus, since March, is the problems with financing. Several aircraft were supposed to go IR but were not taken up because of the financing. Once this issue is solved I am sure the Airbus deliveries will go ahead. The Boeing deal is the one I feel will not go ahead.

I suspect major USA banks have put pressure on EU and UK banks and finance companies and along with the threat of war or sanctions against Iran (by the USA and/or Israel) that has scared them off too.

Finance won't be the deal breaker. US banks were major players in commercial aviation finance a decade or more ago. Now it's Indian, Chinese, other Asian, European and Australia that dominate. EU EXGO are willing to underwrite at reasonable premiums. There is almost an attitude in Europe at the moment, because Trump says no, we will.
 
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FlyRow
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Re: Iran deals might be in jeopardy

Sat Dec 16, 2017 9:20 am

Planesmart wrote:
ltbewr wrote:
IranianMan123 wrote:
There is almost an attitude in Europe at the moment, because Trump says no, we will.


And that's a wise thing, not only on the airline-part.
----------------
Still a pitty that the A380-Airbus deal didn't come through, did the 747-8 order stay?
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scbriml
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Re: Iran deals might be in jeopardy

Sat Dec 16, 2017 9:28 am

FlyRow wrote:
Still a pitty that the A380-Airbus deal didn't come through, did the 747-8 order stay?


Iran Air's order has never been booked by Boeing.
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WIederling
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Re: Iran deals might be in jeopardy

Sat Dec 16, 2017 10:29 am

DarthLobster wrote:
FlyRow wrote:
Dont we. Get this story every few months, and in the end (rightly) nothing changes?


Yup. Lots of hot air but zero action.


"Sabotaged financing" is "Zero Action" ( I hate this "conservative" style of either you go with us or we sabotage it in some other way.)
Murphy is an optimist
 
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KarelXWB
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Re: Iran deals might be in jeopardy

Sat Dec 16, 2017 2:22 pm

What we leave behind is not as important as how we've lived.
 
IranianMan123
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Re: Iran deals might be in jeopardy

Sat Dec 16, 2017 2:47 pm

Surely Iran would have every reason to walk away from the nuclear deal if Trump blocks the sale. Thats why he is taking so long to block the deals. Hope Europe ignore any efforts made by Trump to block the sales.
 
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LTU932
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Re: Iran deals might be in jeopardy

Sat Dec 16, 2017 6:14 pm

Skywatcher wrote:
Maybe the Russians/Chinese/Brazilians/Japanese would fill the gap?
It doesn't matter where the planes come from, if there's even a single US designed component and the US blocks the export of any goods and services to Iran, then those planes will NOT go to Iran. What's so difficult about understanding this?

I'm sorry if I sound rude or anything, but people seem to be operating under the common misconception that if the planes are built by a company from a different country, that they won't be subject to United States trade embargoes. In fact, many of the aircraft they acquired second hand in the past, before the nuclear deal, were acquired de-facto in clear violation of US trade sanctions against Iran and thus their sale was illegal. Even CU, whenever they lease A320s, can only wetlease them, plus those aircraft can't have a US registration either (per the pictures in the database, they have either Irish or Israeli registrations at this time, e.g. EI-TAB or LY-COM). And even that could be borderline illegal.
Sometimes the only thing more dangerous than a question is an answer. - Ferengi Rule of Acquisition 208
 
bw50505
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Re: Iran deals might be in jeopardy

Sat Dec 16, 2017 6:41 pm

LTU932 wrote:
Skywatcher wrote:
Maybe the Russians/Chinese/Brazilians/Japanese would fill the gap?
It doesn't matter where the planes come from, if there's even a single US designed component and the US blocks the export of any goods and services to Iran, then those planes will NOT go to Iran. What's so difficult about understanding this?

I'm sorry if I sound rude or anything, but people seem to be operating under the common misconception that if the planes are built by a company from a different country, that they won't be subject to United States trade embargoes. In fact, many of the aircraft they acquired second hand in the past, before the nuclear deal, were acquired de-facto in clear violation of US trade sanctions against Iran and thus their sale was illegal. Even CU, whenever they lease A320s, can only wetlease them, plus those aircraft can't have a US registration either (per the pictures in the database, they have either Irish or Israeli registrations at this time, e.g. EI-TAB or LY-COM). And even that could be borderline illegal.


LY-*** aircraft are actually Lithuanian (4X-*** are Israeli). However, you still hit the nail on the head with your post.
 
Jetty
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Re: Iran deals might be in jeopardy

Sat Dec 16, 2017 8:36 pm

LTU932 wrote:
I'm sorry if I sound rude or anything, but people seem to be operating under the common misconception that if the planes are built by a company from a different country, that they won't be subject to United States trade embargoes. In fact, many of the aircraft they acquired second hand in the past, before the nuclear deal, were acquired de-facto in clear violation of US trade sanctions against Iran and thus their sale was illegal.

The big difference between the previous situation and the new situation if Trump reimposes sanctions is that the previous sanctions were from the UN, the US, the EU and others. In the new situation the UN and EU sanctions would remain lifted. The US can apply restrictions on US part manufacturers but has no say whatsoever over an EU company selling a second hand Boeing aircraft to Iran i.e.. The only recourse the US has is to bar the company in question from doing any further trades with the US, but it obviously doesn't have jurisdiction over trades between the EU and Iran i.e.
 
CX747
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Re: Iran deals might be in jeopardy

Sat Dec 16, 2017 9:12 pm

Airbus booked the Iranian orders which are now likely to be cancelled. This loss would mean Boeing wins the 2016 "orders" race as the 100 aircraft Iran ordered gave Airbus the nod last year. Not sure how many Airbuses got delivered but we could be looking at Boeing winning back to back "orders" and "deliveries" in 2016 & 2017.
"History does not long entrust the care of freedom to the weak or timid." D. Eisenhower
 
superjeff
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Re: Iran deals might be in jeopardy

Sat Dec 16, 2017 9:18 pm

neomax wrote:
Trump can definitely block Boeing but I would be very surprised if the EU doesn't support Airbus.



Maybe not. about 1/3 of Airbus product involves U.S. supplied components. The U.S. can block them. Also, it looks like they have a "smoking gun" in the form of an Iranian built rocket hitting Saudi Arabia as well now, which supports the allegation that the Iranians have violated the Nuclear Agreemnet
 
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Re: Iran deals might be in jeopardy

Sat Dec 16, 2017 9:19 pm

IranianMan123 wrote:
Surely Iran would have every reason to walk away from the nuclear deal if Trump blocks the sale. Thats why he is taking so long to block the deals. Hope Europe ignore any efforts made by Trump to block the sales.



It appears questionable that Iran is observing its obligations anyway, so, in view of recent occurrences, I wouldn't be surprised.
 
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usmcav8tor
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Re: Iran deals might be in jeopardy

Sat Dec 16, 2017 9:20 pm

scbriml wrote:
CX747 wrote:
I don't see the sales going through. The question is, if we remove the Iranian deal aircraft numbers, does Airbus lose last year's (2016) sales competition?


No because those planes are already in the process of being delivered.

If the remainder end up being canceled, they'll be removed in the year they are canceled, not when they were ordered.


I agree, if anything were to happen it seems likely that the ones being built right now would be fulfilled. As for those just as 'orders', they would probably be canceled.
 
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scbriml
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Re: Iran deals might be in jeopardy

Sat Dec 16, 2017 9:46 pm

CX747 wrote:
Airbus booked the Iranian orders which are now likely to be cancelled. This loss would mean Boeing wins the 2016 "orders" race as the 100 aircraft Iran ordered gave Airbus the nod last year. Not sure how many Airbuses got delivered but we could be looking at Boeing winning back to back "orders" and "deliveries" in 2016 & 2017.


No, cancellations are booked in the year of cancellation, not retrospectively removed from the year of order.

If airline X ordered 20 A320 in 2015, then cancelled 10 in 2017, those 10 are deducted from 2017 sales, not from 2015’s.

Both Airbus and Boeing book cancellations this way. To try and do it the way you’re suggesting would be an accounting nightmare - they’d never be able to close a year’s accounts in case an order was cancelled.
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StTim
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Re: Iran deals might be in jeopardy

Sat Dec 16, 2017 9:58 pm

If the boot was on the other foot and the EU were threatening to block Boeing sales then I suspects there would be howls of protest on here.

If I was at Airbus I would be actively finding alternative sources of supply outside the US so I wasn't in further danger from their political meddling.
 
chiad
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Re: Iran deals might be in jeopardy

Sat Dec 16, 2017 10:17 pm

scbriml wrote:
CX747 wrote:
Airbus booked the Iranian orders which are now likely to be cancelled. This loss would mean Boeing wins the 2016 "orders" race as the 100 aircraft Iran ordered gave Airbus the nod last year. Not sure how many Airbuses got delivered but we could be looking at Boeing winning back to back "orders" and "deliveries" in 2016 & 2017.


No, cancellations are booked in the year of cancellation, not retrospectively removed from the year of order.

If airline X ordered 20 A320 in 2015, then cancelled 10 in 2017, those 10 are deducted from 2017 sales, not from 2015’s.

Both Airbus and Boeing book cancellations this way. To try and do it the way you’re suggesting would be an accounting nightmare - they’d never be able to close a year’s accounts in case an order was cancelled.


Of course you're right.
Different orders of 2016 can (and will most likely) be cancelled still years from now, both with Boeing and Airbus.
 
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LTU932
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Re: Iran deals might be in jeopardy

Sat Dec 16, 2017 10:35 pm

bw50505 wrote:
LY-*** aircraft are actually Lithuanian (4X-*** are Israeli). However, you still hit the nail on the head with your post.
I stand corrected.
superjeff wrote:
neomax wrote:
Trump can definitely block Boeing but I would be very surprised if the EU doesn't support Airbus.



Maybe not. about 1/3 of Airbus product involves U.S. supplied components. The U.S. can block them. Also, it looks like they have a "smoking gun" in the form of an Iranian built rocket hitting Saudi Arabia as well now, which supports the allegation that the Iranians have violated the Nuclear Agreemnet
Even the Sukhoi Superjet has US components (I read that Goodrich is listed as one of their suppliers). Like I said, if the aircraft has US designed components and the aircraft is slated to be sold to an airline of a country under US sanctions, that aircraft will not be sold there.

You can't even sell certain software to a certain country under sanctions, because they could e.g. theoretically design weapons that can threaten the US with that software. The US federal government is (rightfully) very strict about this.
Sometimes the only thing more dangerous than a question is an answer. - Ferengi Rule of Acquisition 208
 
CX747
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Re: Iran deals might be in jeopardy

Sun Dec 17, 2017 12:08 am

scbriml wrote:
CX747 wrote:
Airbus booked the Iranian orders which are now likely to be cancelled. This loss would mean Boeing wins the 2016 "orders" race as the 100 aircraft Iran ordered gave Airbus the nod last year. Not sure how many Airbuses got delivered but we could be looking at Boeing winning back to back "orders" and "deliveries" in 2016 & 2017.


No, cancellations are booked in the year of cancellation, not retrospectively removed from the year of order.

If airline X ordered 20 A320 in 2015, then cancelled 10 in 2017, those 10 are deducted from 2017 sales, not from 2015’s.

Both Airbus and Boeing book cancellations this way. To try and do it the way you’re suggesting would be an accounting nightmare - they’d never be able to close a year’s accounts in case an order was cancelled.


So the annual "orders" race and big show put on by who "won" a particular year is a sham. Guess we should look to see who actually delivered more jets as a better measuring stick. Good info to have as we come to the close of 2017 and await "fake news" as to orders that may never happen.
"History does not long entrust the care of freedom to the weak or timid." D. Eisenhower
 
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persiangulf93
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Re: Iran deals might be in jeopardy

Sun Dec 17, 2017 12:24 am

superjeff wrote:
neomax wrote:
Trump can definitely block Boeing but I would be very surprised if the EU doesn't support Airbus.



Maybe not. about 1/3 of Airbus product involves U.S. supplied components. The U.S. can block them. Also, it looks like they have a "smoking gun" in the form of an Iranian built rocket hitting Saudi Arabia as well now, which supports the allegation that the Iranians have violated the Nuclear Agreemnet


I wouldn't trust the US in their false accusations. The JCPOA was nuclear related only and has nothing to do regarding Iran's defensive missile program. In fact it is the US that's violating the deal by boycotting Iran and not letting us make use of the international banking system which they committed to in the JCPOA.

Airbus deal will go forward and next ATR is ready to be delivered in January - Mark my words!
 
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scbriml
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Re: Iran deals might be in jeopardy

Sun Dec 17, 2017 12:29 am

CX747 wrote:
So the annual "orders" race and big show put on by who "won" a particular year is a sham.


No, because both manufacturers close their books at the end of the calendar year, so have to account for all the orders they've received in that year. Exactly the same as just about every other business out there.
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CX747
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Re: Iran deals might be in jeopardy

Sun Dec 17, 2017 3:27 am

scbriml wrote:
CX747 wrote:
So the annual "orders" race and big show put on by who "won" a particular year is a sham.


No, because both manufacturers close their books at the end of the calendar year, so have to account for all the orders they've received in that year. Exactly the same as just about every other business out there.


An order is just a possibilty, not reality. Deliveries are reality. Just a show at the end of the year.
"History does not long entrust the care of freedom to the weak or timid." D. Eisenhower
 
jupiter2
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Re: Iran deals might be in jeopardy

Sun Dec 17, 2017 9:05 am

persiangulf93 wrote:
superjeff wrote:
neomax wrote:
Trump can definitely block Boeing but I would be very surprised if the EU doesn't support Airbus.



Maybe not. about 1/3 of Airbus product involves U.S. supplied components. The U.S. can block them. Also, it looks like they have a "smoking gun" in the form of an Iranian built rocket hitting Saudi Arabia as well now, which supports the allegation that the Iranians have violated the Nuclear Agreemnet


I wouldn't trust the US in their false accusations. The JCPOA was nuclear related only and has nothing to do regarding Iran's defensive missile program. In fact it is the US that's violating the deal by boycotting Iran and not letting us make use of the international banking system which they committed to in the JCPOA.

Airbus deal will go forward and next ATR is ready to be delivered in January - Mark my words!


If an embargo is placed on Iran by the U.S. what engine do you think will power any 320 series aircraft ordered ? All the engines offered are either solely American, or a partner in the engine project is American. No company would risk breaking a new embargo with anything that has American made/designed content, it just would not be worth the ramifications that could/would be imposed on them by the U.S. Whether you agree, or disagree with any new embargo would be a mute point if your company is threatened with being banned from trading with the U.S. Which market are you going to risk losing, Iran or the U.S.A ?
 
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scbriml
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Re: Iran deals might be in jeopardy

Sun Dec 17, 2017 9:30 am

CX747 wrote:
An order is just a possibilty, not reality. Deliveries are reality. Just a show at the end of the year.


An order is a lot more than "just a possibility".

It's revenue from deposits and progress payments, it's an asset and a future liability that you're committed to produce. That all has to be accounted for. It's how every business that has long lead times between order and delivery have to work. Accept it and move on.
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persiangulf93
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Re: Iran deals might be in jeopardy

Sun Dec 17, 2017 11:07 am

jupiter2 wrote:
persiangulf93 wrote:
superjeff wrote:


Maybe not. about 1/3 of Airbus product involves U.S. supplied components. The U.S. can block them. Also, it looks like they have a "smoking gun" in the form of an Iranian built rocket hitting Saudi Arabia as well now, which supports the allegation that the Iranians have violated the Nuclear Agreemnet


I wouldn't trust the US in their false accusations. The JCPOA was nuclear related only and has nothing to do regarding Iran's defensive missile program. In fact it is the US that's violating the deal by boycotting Iran and not letting us make use of the international banking system which they committed to in the JCPOA.

Airbus deal will go forward and next ATR is ready to be delivered in January - Mark my words!


If an embargo is placed on Iran by the U.S. what engine do you think will power any 320 series aircraft ordered ? All the engines offered are either solely American, or a partner in the engine project is American. No company would risk breaking a new embargo with anything that has American made/designed content, it just would not be worth the ramifications that could/would be imposed on them by the U.S. Whether you agree, or disagree with any new embargo would be a mute point if your company is threatened with being banned from trading with the U.S. Which market are you going to risk losing, Iran or the U.S.A ?


1st. There won't be an embargo placed on Iran as it would mean a direct violation of the JCPOA and the EU will protest it.

2nd. These articles are nothing more than hot air - They've been saying the same for two years and till now we have gotten 6 ATR's next one to be delivered in one month and two Airbus A330's.

3rd. US won't sanction Airbus, this would mean a diplomatic rift between the EU, France and the US and cause issues for the hundreds of Airbus planes that Americsn carriers have in service. It's not as easy as you think.

4th. This is what the article says: Republicans argued that the legislation would not bar any aircraft sales to Iran. Instead, it would require the Treasury Department to notify Congress about the activities of the Iranian company that purchases the planes, as well as the financing used for the deal, according to a report by the Washington Examiner.

http://www.payvand.com/news/17/dec/1065.html
 
CX747
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Re: Iran deals might be in jeopardy

Sun Dec 17, 2017 12:56 pm

scbriml wrote:
CX747 wrote:
An order is just a possibilty, not reality. Deliveries are reality. Just a show at the end of the year.


An order is a lot more than "just a possibility".

It's revenue from deposits and progress payments, it's an asset and a future liability that you're committed to produce. That all has to be accounted for. It's how every business that has long lead times between order and delivery have to work. Accept it and move on.


Except that most of the industry has the same discussion regarding the long term relevance of orders vs deliveries. Especially in regards to those that throw parties saying "WE WIN" only to find out less than a year later they stuffed their ballot with unrealistic numbers.

The Iran deal was front and center last year when one company used it to claim victory. It now rings hollow and longer term analysis has one company looking at winning both orders and deliveries for 2016 and 2017. They just didn't play schennanigins to claim King for the Day. Sometimes, reality hits hard.
"History does not long entrust the care of freedom to the weak or timid." D. Eisenhower
 
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scbriml
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Re: Iran deals might be in jeopardy

Sun Dec 17, 2017 1:15 pm

CX747 wrote:
Except that most of the industry has the same discussion regarding the long term relevance of orders vs deliveries.


Most of the industry, or fan-boys on a.net? Most of the industry understands the differences between orders and deliveries, and both are valid metrics.

CX747 wrote:
The Iran deal was front and center last year when one company used it to claim victory.


Until something significant changes, those orders are still valid and are in the process of being delivered. :confused:

CX747 wrote:
It now rings hollow and longer term analysis has one company looking at winning both orders and deliveries for 2016 and 2017.


Only in your analysis - the rest of the world understands you don't go back and change orders received in previous years because of the accounting nightmare that would entail. Neither Airbus nor Boeing does it - they both count cancellations in the year they happen. It's why both manufacturers report gross and net orders each year.

I'm struggling to understand why it seems to be bothering you so much?
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There are 10 types of people in the World - those that understand binary and those that don't.
 
jupiter2
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Re: Iran deals might be in jeopardy

Sun Dec 17, 2017 2:10 pm

persiangulf93 wrote:
jupiter2 wrote:
persiangulf93 wrote:

I wouldn't trust the US in their false accusations. The JCPOA was nuclear related only and has nothing to do regarding Iran's defensive missile program. In fact it is the US that's violating the deal by boycotting Iran and not letting us make use of the international banking system which they committed to in the JCPOA.

Airbus deal will go forward and next ATR is ready to be delivered in January - Mark my words!


If an embargo is placed on Iran by the U.S. what engine do you think will power any 320 series aircraft ordered ? All the engines offered are either solely American, or a partner in the engine project is American. No company would risk breaking a new embargo with anything that has American made/designed content, it just would not be worth the ramifications that could/would be imposed on them by the U.S. Whether you agree, or disagree with any new embargo would be a mute point if your company is threatened with being banned from trading with the U.S. Which market are you going to risk losing, Iran or the U.S.A ?


1st. There won't be an embargo placed on Iran as it would mean a direct violation of the JCPOA and the EU will protest it.

2nd. These articles are nothing more than hot air - They've been saying the same for two years and till now we have gotten 6 ATR's next one to be delivered in one month and two Airbus A330's.

3rd. US won't sanction Airbus, this would mean a diplomatic rift between the EU, France and the US and cause issues for the hundreds of Airbus planes that Americsn carriers have in service. It's not as easy as you think.

4th. This is what the article says: Republicans argued that the legislation would not bar any aircraft sales to Iran. Instead, it would require the Treasury Department to notify Congress about the activities of the Iranian company that purchases the planes, as well as the financing used for the deal, according to a report by the Washington Examiner.

http://www.payvand.com/news/17/dec/1065.html


1st. I have little doubt that there will be no embargo, it would be counter productive to the U.S.A. but that still doesn't mean it can't happen. If the U.S. was to slap a ban on all U.S. made/designed products for sale to Iran, there is very little the E.U. or the rest of the world could do. Protest all they like, but more than likely it would fall on deaf ears.

2nd. Indeed they most likely are, but as long as the Republicans have the power, with Trump as president, it can't be dismissed as impossible.

3rd. Agreed, the U.S. won't sanction Airbus, they won't need too. Airbus would have to much too potentially lose to not abide by any U.S. embargo. Still haven't explained what could possibly power any Airbus 320 series to be sold to Iran, there would be no engines supplied.

4th. They are arguing that it won't bar any aircraft sales, that's the problem, they want them barred.

I agree that a ban is unlikely and really compared to who else the world sells arms and aircraft too, unwarranted. However, you thoroughly underestimate the ramifications to any company, nation, individual who may go against any such ban, even if it is only a ban imposed by the U.S.A. and not the U.N.
 
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LTU932
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Re: Iran deals might be in jeopardy

Sun Dec 17, 2017 2:20 pm

jupiter2 wrote:
1st. I have little doubt that there will be no embargo, it would be counter productive to the U.S.A. but that still doesn't mean it can't happen. If the U.S. was to slap a ban on all U.S. made/designed products for sale to Iran, there is very little the E.U. or the rest of the world could do. Protest all they like, but more than likely it would fall on deaf ears.
:checkmark:

jupiter2 wrote:
2nd. Indeed they most likely are, but as long as the Republicans have the power, with Trump as president, it can't be dismissed as impossible.
:checkmark: I do have to say that this can also happen with Republicans controlling Congress and a Democrat as president. There are certainly even Democratic Congressmen and Senators that may agree with the Republicans on this matter.

jupiter2 wrote:
3rd. Agreed, the U.S. won't sanction Airbus, they won't need too. Airbus would have to much too potentially lose to not abide by any U.S. embargo. Still haven't explained what could possibly power any Airbus 320 series to be sold to Iran, there would be no engines supplied.
:checkmark:

jupiter2 wrote:
you thoroughly underestimate the ramifications to any company, nation, individual who may go against any such ban, even if it is only a ban imposed by the U.S.A. and not the U.N.
:checkmark:

Spot on. While I do think a ban is likely, or at the very least bigger restrictions, I agree on everything else I checked. Major corporations would lose a major market if they are barred from trading with the United States. Even if they'd do business with other big nations, the US is still too big of a market to be ignored, plus the ramifications of such a ban cannot be underestimated, just as you said. As to your 4th point, I'm not saying anything other than: the jury is still out there.
Sometimes the only thing more dangerous than a question is an answer. - Ferengi Rule of Acquisition 208
 
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persiangulf93
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Re: Iran deals might be in jeopardy

Sun Dec 17, 2017 2:32 pm

US can't put a ban on Aircraft sales to Iran as it is in direct violation of the JCPOA and if they do - Iran has every right to walk from the deal as per agreement. I am sure the world doesn't want that and any violation by the JCPOA will turn in protest. I am sure that many of you might think I am naive, but till now all deliveries are on track and tomorrow to IranAir delivery team will fly to Toulouse a head of the delivery of 2 new ATR72 aircraft (msn 1477/1478). Also don't be too surprised to see other deliveries of Airbus in the coming months. I am sure Airbus and EU are lobbying very well to prevent any blockade.
 
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enzo011
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Re: Iran deals might be in jeopardy

Sun Dec 17, 2017 3:05 pm

scbriml wrote:
I'm struggling to understand why it seems to be bothering you so much?



I guess this is a rhetorical question as you actually know the answer. :scratchchin: When (yes, when not if) Airbus delivers more aircraft per year than Boeing but it starts selling less because it has less slots to sell then the argument will be flipped on its side. Then sales will be all important and deliveries will take a back seat. Its what we do on a-net...round and round we go. :spin:
 
jupiter2
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Re: Iran deals might be in jeopardy

Sun Dec 17, 2017 3:22 pm

persiangulf93 wrote:
US can't put a ban on Aircraft sales to Iran as it is in direct violation of the JCPOA and if they do - Iran has every right to walk from the deal as per agreement. I am sure the world doesn't want that and any violation by the JCPOA will turn in protest. I am sure that many of you might think I am naive, but till now all deliveries are on track and tomorrow to IranAir delivery team will fly to Toulouse a head of the delivery of 2 new ATR72 aircraft (msn 1477/1478). Also don't be too surprised to see other deliveries of Airbus in the coming months. I am sure Airbus and EU are lobbying very well to prevent any blockade.


There is no law that says that anyone has too sell to somebody else if they don't want too. You cannot force me too sell you goods or services and even if there was, I would price it so exorbitantly high, that it wouldn't be worth your while to buy from me.

The point is, they don't even have to put a direct ban on aircraft sales, just any parts in a particular aircraft that are U.S. made/designed. If there is an aircraft out there, with absolutely zero U.S. content, then there would be nothing that the U.S could do to stop that aircraft being sold to Iran, but good luck finding one that would be worthwhile. If Iran was to walk away from the JCPOA agreement, then unfortunately you would probably see the reinstatement of other sanctions. Airbus wouldn't be the only ones lobbying to stop any potential ban, Boeing would be at the front of that line, they want to sell to Iran, most U.S. companies probably do, but if the government was too ban trade with Iran, there is nothing they could do about it.

Nothing against ATR72 aircraft, but in the grand scheme of things, they really are insignificant at this point in the argument, it is the bigger, higher profile aircraft that will be affected first by any ban. Eventually though, even the ATR's would suffer the same fate, no engines (even if it is Pratt Canada) no deliveries, no spares being available, etc.

As much as the less narrow minded people in the world don't like it, the U.S.A. carries the big stick, just as the E.U. Russia and China do to a lesser extant. It is the economic and techno logic reality and as long as that is the case, there is very little that rest of the world can do, except play along.
 
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persiangulf93
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Re: Iran deals might be in jeopardy

Sun Dec 17, 2017 5:45 pm

The Airbus deal between IR and Airbus may be financed by Airbus themselves.
https://en.mehrnews.com/news/130336/Air ... -purchases

Do you think Airbus would do this if they weren't confident the deal going through?
 
jupiter2
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Re: Iran deals might be in jeopardy

Sun Dec 17, 2017 6:07 pm

persiangulf93 wrote:
The Airbus deal between IR and Airbus may be financed by Airbus themselves.
https://en.mehrnews.com/news/130336/Air ... -purchases

Do you think Airbus would do this if they weren't confident the deal going through?


More likely an indication that they are finding it hard to get a financial institution to finance the deal and being exposed to a potential embargo on delivery.

Not unheard of for a manufacturer to finance a deal, Boeing do it as well, but not sure they would expose themselves to a large order.
 
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persiangulf93
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Re: Iran deals might be in jeopardy

Sun Dec 17, 2017 6:25 pm

jupiter2 wrote:
persiangulf93 wrote:
The Airbus deal between IR and Airbus may be financed by Airbus themselves.
https://en.mehrnews.com/news/130336/Air ... -purchases

Do you think Airbus would do this if they weren't confident the deal going through?


More likely an indication that they are finding it hard to get a financial institution to finance the deal and being exposed to a potential embargo on delivery.

Not unheard of for a manufacturer to finance a deal, Boeing do it as well, but not sure they would expose themselves to a large order.


The financing issue has nothing to do with the potential embargo, but rather with the US not being in terms with their part of the agreement. Iran can't even finance simple projects due to banks still being afraid of doing business with us, despite sanctions being lifted. Airbus would not put billions of USD in something that was going to be cancelled. Thete is much more behind the screen happening than you and me can ever know.
 
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DocLightning
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Re: Iran deals might be in jeopardy

Sun Dec 17, 2017 7:04 pm

jupiter2 wrote:
1st. I have little doubt that there will be no embargo, it would be counter productive to the U.S.A. but that still doesn't mean it can't happen. If the U.S. was to slap a ban on all U.S. made/designed products for sale to Iran, there is very little the E.U. or the rest of the world could do. Protest all they like, but more than likely it would fall on deaf ears.


There is *something* that Airbus could do, but it would take decades: adopt a policy of not using any US designed or manufactured parts in any future AIrbus types. However, for other products with shorter design cycles (like cars), this might be a project that would only take 5-10 years. That would reduce the impact that American political instability would have on trade in other countries. Our politicians should keep that in mind.
-Doc Lightning-

"The sky calls to us. If we do not destroy ourselves, we will one day venture to the stars."
-Carl Sagan
 
superjeff
Posts: 1385
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Re: Iran deals might be in jeopardy

Sun Dec 17, 2017 7:10 pm

persiangulf93 wrote:
US can't put a ban on Aircraft sales to Iran as it is in direct violation of the JCPOA and if they do - Iran has every right to walk from the deal as per agreement. I am sure the world doesn't want that and any violation by the JCPOA will turn in protest. I am sure that many of you might think I am naive, but till now all deliveries are on track and tomorrow to IranAir delivery team will fly to Toulouse a head of the delivery of 2 new ATR72 aircraft (msn 1477/1478). Also don't be too surprised to see other deliveries of Airbus in the coming months. I am sure Airbus and EU are lobbying very well to prevent any blockade.


The problem is the U.S. is saying that Iran has already breached the agreement. Based on that, the U.S. can walk. . .
 
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Jayafe
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Re: Iran deals might be in jeopardy

Sun Dec 17, 2017 7:37 pm

superjeff wrote:
persiangulf93 wrote:
US can't put a ban on Aircraft sales to Iran as it is in direct violation of the JCPOA and if they do - Iran has every right to walk from the deal as per agreement. I am sure the world doesn't want that and any violation by the JCPOA will turn in protest. I am sure that many of you might think I am naive, but till now all deliveries are on track and tomorrow to IranAir delivery team will fly to Toulouse a head of the delivery of 2 new ATR72 aircraft (msn 1477/1478). Also don't be too surprised to see other deliveries of Airbus in the coming months. I am sure Airbus and EU are lobbying very well to prevent any blockade.


The problem is the U.S. is saying that Iran has already breached the agreement. Based on that, the U.S. can walk. . .


And the tiny detail that it is actually not true, but hey, whatever... They can base NASA investments in the fact that the Earth is flat as well...
 
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LTU932
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Re: Iran deals might be in jeopardy

Sun Dec 17, 2017 7:38 pm

jupiter2 wrote:
There is no law that says that anyone has too sell to somebody else if they don't want too. You cannot force me too sell you goods or services and even if there was, I would price it so exorbitantly high, that it wouldn't be worth your while to buy from me.
:checkmark:

jupiter2 wrote:
The point is, they don't even have to put a direct ban on aircraft sales, just any parts in a particular aircraft that are U.S. made/designed. If there is an aircraft out there, with absolutely zero U.S. content, then there would be nothing that the U.S could do to stop that aircraft being sold to Iran, but good luck finding one that would be worthwhile. If Iran was to walk away from the JCPOA agreement, then unfortunately you would probably see the reinstatement of other sanctions. Airbus wouldn't be the only ones lobbying to stop any potential ban, Boeing would be at the front of that line, they want to sell to Iran, most U.S. companies probably do, but if the government was too ban trade with Iran, there is nothing they could do about it.
:checkmark:

Which also leads to the example I made earlier: You can't even sell certain software to certain nations for export control reasons. As ridiculous as it may sound to people, they could use that software to directly threaten the US by designing weapons with it. On the other hand, even with those aircraft parts, you can't rule out that somebody could take a look at them just to reverse engineer them (e.g. industrial espionage).
jupiter2 wrote:
As much as the less narrow minded people in the world don't like it, the U.S.A. carries the big stick, just as the E.U. Russia and China do to a lesser extant. It is the economic and techno logic reality and as long as that is the case, there is very little that rest of the world can do, except play along.
:checkmark: :checkmark: :checkmark:
Sometimes the only thing more dangerous than a question is an answer. - Ferengi Rule of Acquisition 208

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