If this is to be confirmed, in my opinion this is the worst of the scenarios.
Goodbye commercial and executive aviation for Embraer ...
Source (in portuguese only - Google Translate helps):http://www.valor.com.br/empresas/530840 ... da-embraer
origem=G1&utm_source=g1.globo.com&utm_medium=referral&utm_campaign=materiaBoeing proposes to have 90% of Embraer commercial aviation company
Excerpts:"The Boeing project submitted to the government last week predicts that the US aviation giant would control 80% to 90% of a new company that would receive all of Embraer's commercial aviation area, both regional and executive jets, as reported yesterday the PRO Value, real-time information service.
The Brazilian manufacturer, therefore, would have under it only 10% to 20% of the capital of the new company and also the current defense area, which the Brazilian government insists not be sold.""The remaining Embraer, however, will be a dehydrated company, far removed from what is the Brazilian manufacturer today.""The Americans have made it clear to the government that it is imperative for them to have full control of the commercial aviation company that will be established, which is expected to report directly to Chicago, Boeing's headquarters. Only in this way, they believe, can they conduct business with the agility they deem necessary."
I read the original article (in Portuguese) and I can see that it is more of an analysis of what Boeing may propose to the Brazilian Government. This will not be the final one unless if the present Government wants to commit a political suicide.
OK - the Defence area would be kept apart and the present deal with SAAB would be protected, but a significant chunk of revenue would go away to Boeing which will, in itself increase the demand from the remaining Embraer for a Budget injection (from the tax payer). This without the fact that safeguards would have to be put in place towards guaranteeing that we wold not have job losses should Boeing consider to close/transfer part or most of the production away from Brazil.
I believe that Brazil will refuse this offer. Embraer can survive on their own regardless of an increased challenge from Airbus/BBD. The most likely scenario after this, is the partnership on the commercial side but on a small percentage (similar to the 51% Airbus has on the C-Series Program).
Note that, if Boeing manages to absorb Embraer as proposed above, BBD will most certainly go too - to Airbus which will feel it needs to contra Boeing's strategy. This would be a lose-lose situation on the market due to the resultant polarization.
Jomar777, if do you accompanied our policy closely knows that from this government we can expect everything, until the unexpected ...
Some thoughts that come to my mind:
1. The Valor Econômico Magazine has a bias on the left politics. The news is more to sensationalism waiting for the reaction of unions than in fact it can be;
2. If there is any real fund on that, The Embraer Defense will not survive only if it depends on the government side.
If the company had not made the contribution in 2015 on its own, most likely the KC-390 project would have been paralyzed and would only be resumed after the improvement in the public accounts.
Recalling further that the federal government takes royalties on all sales made within the area of defense;
3. Speaking of public accounts, the government is thirsting for money to reduce the gap in its accounts.
The Minister of Economy, Mr. Henrique Meirelles, has already said in all words that he favors the sale of Embraer.
Even if the federal government has no shares in the company except for the golden shares, I believe Boeing will most likely pay the government some value in return for the deal.
It is also worth mentioning that Mr. Henrique Meirelles wants to close the year 2018 with the least debit possible in the government accounts so that he leaves "beautiful in the picture" and that it brings some merit to his probable candidacy for the elections for president of this year;
4. You say that the sale could represent a "suicide for this government". One more suicide then ... after what we saw in the two cases where the government (read the president in person) had to get rid of the accusations of the JBS scandal, this move is of minor importance.
In any case, we will no longer see the face of the current rulers.
So it matters little to them whether or not suicide will be.
Now I will tell you from my personal point of view:
- all we hope is a good business association and synergy for future projects and prospecting in new business.
Personally, the meaning of a Boeing airplane manufactured in Brazil is the same as a GM car manufactured in Brazil: none !!!