Hi everyone!
Merry Christmas!

I haven't heard much about the Qantas A320neo order for JStar and Virgin's 737 MAX order. Do we know when and if these aircraft are going to be delivered? And has there been any news on Qantas decision between the MAX and the NEO. I understand Qantas isn't in the need to upgrade just yet.

Thanks!

The A230neo?

Virgin Australia pushed there slots back to 2019 I think it was? They aren't really in the place to be spending money on aircraft, they are currently reducing there overall fleet.

Qantas does need to start replacing some of there older 738s which are getting closer to 20 years old.

VA did push their MAX order back a bit, can’t remember the exact dates.
The QF group have 99 NEO’s on order, I’d imagine various JQ branches taking them when their current fleets need replacing. I could see a fair few of QF’s 75 738’s bing replaced by a MOM aircraft, however the oldest was delivered in 2002 so it will be a while before they begin to replace them, he newest is from 2014. I’m not sure what the unions will say about QF mainline using a mixed narrow body fleet so hard to say weather they will get some of the 99 NEO’s on order.

ro318 wrote:

The A230neo?

Obviously a typo.

VA’s order for the MAX aircraft was originally for 2019, they then brought it forward to 2018, and it’s now been switched back to the first aircraft arriving last quarter of 2019.
They also seem to have dropped the references to MAX8 and now seems to be just MAX, whether that’s a sign of things to come, not sure.

I would consider the info in this thread could be incorporated into the Aussie thread, yes?

zkncj wrote:

Virgin Australia pushed there slots back to 2019 I think it was? They aren't really in the place to be spending money on aircraft, they are currently reducing there overall fleet.

Qantas does need to start replacing some of there older 738s which are getting closer to 20 years old.

Virgin's 737 fleet now exceeds 80 frames, more than QF. Yes they've largely removed the E190s but seating capacity wise these have largely been replaced by the Boeings. So hardly a profound reduction in fleet size and if anything an indication that the MAX is still very likely at Virgin.

What's interesting is that VA is still taking 737s while Qantas last took a newbuild delivery in, what, 2014?

I suspect we'll be seeing the MAX10 at VA eventually. Harder to gauge with QF as the JQ fleet might enable them to bring the 321 in.

I wouldn’t read too much into VA continuing to grow their 737 fleet faster than Qantas. Virgin have all but pulled the A330s of East-West flying and drawn down the E190s, while Qantas have diversified their domestic and international short haul operations with increased A330 and/or 717 flying as required. Overall Qantas is still a much larger airline.

As for Qantas’ 737s, the first won’t be retired until well into the 2020s. I think we can reasonably expect 25 years service per frame.

aerokiwi wrote:

zkncj wrote:

Virgin Australia pushed there slots back to 2019 I think it was? They aren't really in the place to be spending money on aircraft, they are currently reducing there overall fleet.

Qantas does need to start replacing some of there older 738s which are getting closer to 20 years old.

Virgin's 737 fleet now exceeds 80 frames, more than QF. Yes they've largely removed the E190s but seating capacity wise these have largely been replaced by the Boeings. So hardly a profound reduction in fleet size and if anything an indication that the MAX is still very likely at Virgin.

What's interesting is that VA is still taking 737s while Qantas last took a newbuild delivery in, what, 2014?

I suspect we'll be seeing the MAX10 at VA eventually. Harder to gauge with QF as the JQ fleet might enable them to bring the 321 in.

VA is completely removing the E190 fleet, and reducing the ATR fleet down to just 5 aircraft. Along with that they are also transferring some 738s to TT, and have repurposed some A332 slots onto the HKG route.

smi0006 wrote:

How big does a fleet need to be for economies of scale to kick in? Is the QF fleet big enough that it has scale or does a QFgroup order add the scale with Jetstar aircraft as well.

Does QF need a MOM for AU? If twin aisle it would speed up turn times over a 321/737MAX which over Domestic sectors could add significant utilisation. Be good to see a decent business product to allow for cross utilisation between Tasman, Domestic and South Asia flying.

It doesn’t affect them atm, QF have 75 738’s, JQ have a large A320/321 fleet.

It will be interesting to see what the final size or if the MOM is wide body or narrow body. Either way I think QF could replace a good portion of their 738 fleet with MOM. For both Domestic, Tasman and South Asia flying. Could also potentially replace some A330 short haul flying although I feel a large aircraft like the A330 will always be needed to some degree domestically at least during peak hours.

QF will be replacing a fair chunk of their fleet from 2023-2030, 744’s, A330’s, 738’s, A380’s.

zkncj wrote:

aerokiwi wrote:

zkncj wrote:

Virgin Australia pushed there slots back to 2019 I think it was? They aren't really in the place to be spending money on aircraft, they are currently reducing there overall fleet.

Qantas does need to start replacing some of there older 738s which are getting closer to 20 years old.

Virgin's 737 fleet now exceeds 80 frames, more than QF. Yes they've largely removed the E190s but seating capacity wise these have largely been replaced by the Boeings. So hardly a profound reduction in fleet size and if anything an indication that the MAX is still very likely at Virgin.

What's interesting is that VA is still taking 737s while Qantas last took a newbuild delivery in, what, 2014?

I suspect we'll be seeing the MAX10 at VA eventually. Harder to gauge with QF as the JQ fleet might enable them to bring the 321 in.

VA is completely removing the E190 fleet, and reducing the ATR fleet down to just 5 aircraft. Along with that they are also transferring some 738s to TT, and have repurposed some A332 slots onto the HKG route.

Yeah so not quite as dramatic as you make out (but I understand your attempt). A reduction in regional ops doesn't really tell you much about their MAX intentions, as much as you want to infer ill winds. If anything, where the MAX sized aircraft is concerned, VA is actually expanding, increasing the likelihood of the MAX.

Consider, they're at 79 738s and 2 73Gs now. They're replacing domestic 330s with 737 services as they're reassigned to international (not a fleet reduction by the way). Likewise E190s are being replaced with 737s as they're removed entirely (only 2 left I believe). And as you noted, Tiger is receiving older VA 737s to replace their 320s as they come off lease.

So where it counts, VA seems like a reasonable prospect to see their order through. Very likely before QF. Barring a catastrophic event, 2019 seems reasonable.