Back in August, I flew on Frontier Airlines inaugural flight into Islip MacArthur Airport (ISP). That flight was from Orlando (MCO). But looking at there destinations our of ISP, it looks like they have really expanded. Here is a list of destinations:

All year: Fort Myers, Miami, New Orleans, Orlando, Tampa, West Palm Beach

Seasonal: Atlanta, Chicago–O'Hare, Detroit, Minneapolis/St. Paul

My question is why would they expand out of an airport that has struggled to keep airlines? Are they trying to get travelers from New York City? It's at least an hour and a half drive. And most of their routes are already being operated by Southwest.




Here is a link to the inaugural flight video (I'm not trying to self-promote it, just use it as a reference)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xZ9drmIx3Ko&t=26s

The immediate catchment area of Nassau and Suffolk counties is huge a wealthy. For various reasons, those passengers tend to leak to LGA and JFK. Airline loyalty, schedule, price, nonstops, etc.

Legacy carriers offering a few RJ flights to a nearby hub, likely at a higher fare, will often fuel that leakage even more.

With Frontier’s price point, they may be able to recapture the leakage, but the other factors of no frequency or brand loyalty on the Island might prove to be insurmountable.

iflyalexair wrote:

The immediate catchment area of Nassau and Suffolk counties is huge a wealthy. For various reasons, those passengers tend to leak to LGA and JFK. Airline loyalty, schedule, price, nonstops, etc.

Legacy carriers offering a few RJ flights to a nearby hub, likely at a higher fare, will often fuel that leakage even more.

With Frontier’s price point, they may be able to recapture the leakage, but the other factors of no frequency or brand loyalty on the Island might prove to be insurmountable.

Yeah, I think you are completely correct. I live in eastern Long Island and usually fly out of JFK/LGA or take an AA regional flight from ISP to PHL and connect. But at the same time, the cost of the fares aren't an issue for me. So I would assume people looking for that cheap flight might as well take the Frontier/Southwest flights, instead of flying a legacy carrier for $100+.

quintinsoloviev wrote:

iflyalexair wrote:

The immediate catchment area of Nassau and Suffolk counties is huge a wealthy. For various reasons, those passengers tend to leak to LGA and JFK. Airline loyalty, schedule, price, nonstops, etc.

Legacy carriers offering a few RJ flights to a nearby hub, likely at a higher fare, will often fuel that leakage even more.

With Frontier’s price point, they may be able to recapture the leakage, but the other factors of no frequency or brand loyalty on the Island might prove to be insurmountable.

Yeah, I think you are completely correct. I live in eastern Long Island and usually fly out of JFK/LGA or take an AA regional flight from ISP to PHL and connect. But at the same time, the cost of the fares aren't an issue for me. So I would assume people looking for that cheap flight might as well take the Frontier/Southwest flights, instead of flying a legacy carrier for $100+.

I live in Nassau County. With the current options available in ISP, I wouldn't even give them a second look with JFK right in my back yard. I have no loyalty to the airlines that are there, and I wouldn't fly Frontier with a gun to my head. I would CONSIDER WN through BWI for certain trips I take, but what would really get me to ISP would be an airline I frequent that offers flights (even with a connection) to a destination I frequent. Aircraft type also comes into play. I'd rather take a 737/A320/A319 out of JFK than fly a CR7 out of ISP.

With that said, the new options are great for those willing to give them a try, and F9 has expanded in an impressive way, but it doesn't make me check flights out of ISP when I need to travel.

I think ISP with F9 is an experiment in process. When the airport's operational numbers are made known, then one may have an idea if Frontier is establishing any traction in the marketplace. It is probably a given that some of the initial routes may not survive, while others may. The ULCC business model that is now F9 is making money. Whether it makes money in this market is anyone's guess.

Frontier 14

quintinsoloviev wrote:

My question is why would they expand out of an airport that has struggled to keep airlines? Are they trying to get travelers from New York City? It's at least an hour and a half drive. And most of their routes are already being operated by Southwest.

Southwest has been a stayer at ISP. Originally, it was a New York substitute, but even when Southwest got slots at LGA they stayed at ISP, although with reduced service.

The thinking is that there is a huge Long Island population that will use ISP - at the right price. Frontier's remarkable turn-around from near certain death to making big money is based on that low-fare market, as at TTN, for example.

TTN was an astonishing success from Day 1 of selling, when Frontier was flying 2 x weekly TTN-MCO. Within weeks it was flying to several Florida destinations ex-TTN. Several of the coming summer routes at ISP are replicates of TTN.

Whether the airline can pull the same trick again remains to be seen, but they established some time ago that, these days, they can co-exist with Southwest. They've been doing it at DEN for years.

mariner

Frontier has been doing amazing at LIMA (ISP) and im curious about the new routes in April (DTW, MSP, ATL, ORD). Predictions are that ORD and ATL will do exceptional and DTW will probably stay Seasonal. Unknown about MSP.

Me personally, I think that Frontier is going to bring in some legacies (Delta on DTW and ATL and American on ORD) as well as that they will add DEN, LAS and SJU in the near future.

Balloonchaser wrote:

Frontier has been doing amazing at LIMA (ISP) and im curious about the new routes in April (DTW, MSP, ATL, ORD). Predictions are that ORD and ATL will do exceptional and DTW will probably stay Seasonal. Unknown about MSP.

Me personally, I think that Frontier is going to bring in some legacies (Delta on DTW and ATL and American on ORD) as well as that they will add DEN, LAS and SJU in the near future.

I think DTW will also do amazing there is actually more traffic heading to DTW from ISP than ATL and DL because it has no service there. If there was money to be made flying ATL-ISP DL would be flying it already. I agree with you on ORD

klm617 wrote:

Balloonchaser wrote:

Frontier has been doing amazing at LIMA (ISP) and im curious about the new routes in April (DTW, MSP, ATL, ORD). Predictions are that ORD and ATL will do exceptional and DTW will probably stay Seasonal. Unknown about MSP.

Me personally, I think that Frontier is going to bring in some legacies (Delta on DTW and ATL and American on ORD) as well as that they will add DEN, LAS and SJU in the near future.

I think DTW will also do amazing there is actually more traffic heading to DTW from ISP than ATL and DL because it has no service there. If there was money to be made flying ATL-ISP DL would be flying it already. I agree with you on ORD

Delta did fly it and it was successful until they deemed it unsuccessful and pulled out of ISP.. I think they would give it another shot (Many Long Islanders are Loyal to the Legacies)

As an outsider, it does not immediately seem a great fit having F9 at ISP given the demographics of Long Island, but there must be a role for it.

Given F9’s track record though of moving in and then moving on, it will be interesting to watch how it plays out.

The problem for other airlines is that ISP cannibalizes their own flights. They reduce the demand for their own jfk and lga flights. For frontier that is not a factor. They get to serve a new area and there are millions of people who can drive to that airport. It's a good try and score for ISP.

The biggest long term challenge we all know ISP will face is how to reduce/keep fees low enough to keep frontier happy. They will apply lots of pressure for low fees and jump ship no hesitation if they don't think they are getting a good deal.

klm617 wrote:

If there was money to be made flying ATL-ISP DL would be flying it already.

By your same logic, then, if there was money to be made flying ISP-DTW, Delta would also be flying it already.

But that also begs the question; Will we ever see the day that a thread is not hijacked and turned into a DTW-Glorification Ceremony?

mariner wrote:

quintinsoloviev wrote:

My question is why would they expand out of an airport that has struggled to keep airlines? Are they trying to get travelers from New York City? It's at least an hour and a half drive. And most of their routes are already being operated by Southwest.

Southwest has been a stayer at ISP. Originally, it was a New York substitute, but even when Southwest got slots at LGA they stayed at ISP, although with reduced service.

I remember when WN came to ISP in the late 1990's as a placeholder for it's NYC service. In 2009 when they went to LGA, and flights at ISP were doing down (destinations and frequencies), everyone thought the worse. However, I've noticed that over the past few years WN has no intent to leave ISP. Slowly beginning to increase frequencies to existing destinations, and sending more bigger planes (-800's) here as well. Of course, I don't expect them to return to their haydays at ISP which were in the early 2000's where as many as 30 daily flights went out, but I think the decline trend which lasted from 2008-2013 has finally stopped. They are happy the way they are here, making money, very good loads on flights, and their exclusive spacious 7 gate concourse.

Southwest has a good fanbase here on LI. us LIers love the free bags, wifi, TV's, free snacks+beverages, and great customer service on the 737's whisking us to FL and BWI. If Frontier wants to make an impact here, it will definitely take some time. Frontier charges for bags, snacks, has no TV or wifi on it's planes, and operates out of an old narrow 2 gate concourse. But, people have been willing to sacrifice those things for insanely cheap base fares. I believe F9 will do good at ISP, most of their current routes are performing good but there's a few (MIA, MSY) that could definitely do better.