Everyone does realize manufacturing economies of scale cannot be overcome by dictate? Airbus must order 25+ per year of items or the price of the item goes up (basically, it costs about the same to make 15 as 25 items as that is just how mass production works). Commercial airframes cannot be economically supported at prototype production costs... Note: In the future this economy of scale will shift thanks to 3D printing, but we're talking about an airframe developed before 3D printing was certified for aerospace use. In fact, aerospace will benefit more from 3D printing than any other industry for support of older frames. So when can we 3D print an engine case?
Everyone also realized that the 779 and A350-1000 changes the economics?
Here is a Leeham slide (who, in my opinion, favors Airbus):https://leehamnews.com/2014/02/03/updat ... -involved/
The 779 will burn 4.8 cents of fuel per passenger seat mile versus the A388's 5.5 cents of fuel (yes, higher than the 777-300ER's 5.2 cents). Or, the 779 will have a 13% lower fuel cost per seat versus today's A388. Emirates has been demanding a 10% fuel burn improvement. The A380 saves money elsewhere (e.g., same pilot costs albeit with more people).
I've seen it stated more than a few times that Emirates NEEDS the A380. Why does it need that jet over other high capacity jets? Their 2 class 77W seats something like 427 people and the 3 class seats 360. Best thing about every other widebody is that you can serve more destinations than the A380. You aren't limited to the highest demand routes and aren't limited to the airports that are equipped to handle the A380.
Because for a start EK has 8 daily A380 flights to and from LHR. They do not have the slots to carry that much traffic on 77W's
And there is no reason EK cannot use the current A380's for another 20 years to fill this. The model of only using aircraft for 12 years is a little short sided.
EK could keep buying, but they must finance. Does EK need the A380? No. Why would they? They are the world's #1 777 operator and will grow with the 779. Although, 'limited to airports that can serve the A380' hasn't been much of a handicap (an amazing number of airports are a gate away from being A380 ready).
What is needed is economics. Any A380s ordered today will spend most of their lives flying out of DWC instead of DXB. (Although I have doubts on Dubai having the funds to open the EK sized terminal at DWC on time.) So Emirates will have much flexibility on aircraft selection.
Is the cost savings of the 779 enough to buy more LHR slots? Maybe or maybe LHR seats go up in price and more passengers fly out of STN, LGW, or maybe even with the 787-10 LTN and maybe more flights to BHX? Airlines are managed for profit, not market share and certainly not seats. Every A388 could have its lease extended for the time at DXB.
The reality is there is a reason people mention LHR as there really are few airports to support the A380 unless the A380 has a low enough CASM to justify its size.
I cannot wait to get vaccinated to live again! Warning: I simulated that it takes 50%+ vaccinated to protect the vaccinated and 75%+ vaccinated to protect the vac-hesitant.