Bricktop
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Re: Reuters:Airbus ready to phase out A380 if fails to win Emirates deal

Tue Jan 16, 2018 8:09 pm

william wrote:
SomebodyInTLS wrote:

As I've argued several times already, Emirates killed the market for all the other airlines and actually limited A380 sales. They did *NOT* save it.


That point cannot be emphasized enough and will be the topics of "what ifs" in the future. If EK did not in essence monopolized the A380, what would the airline landscape look like now?

And as I have said before (without rebuttal IIRC) I don't buy that. Please describe which airlines would have picked up those 100 or so frames, and the routes where they would be flying them. To be fair, you really need to place a lot more than 100 to say EK limited the A380. It should be a very easy exercise given all the hindsight of the last 10+ years. You may know more than me, because I couldn't do it. ;)
 
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Re: Reuters:Airbus ready to phase out A380 if fails to win Emirates deal

Tue Jan 16, 2018 8:16 pm

Revelation wrote:
Aircellist wrote:
Cost for making a gate A380-ready at YUL: CA$ 600 000, some time before 2009, as per this article:
http://classement.lesaffaires.com/secte ... ans/505601

(extra cost for a two-levels jet bridge and the interface building, added on top of a complete rebuild of the international section of the airport).

We are quite far from Revelation's BOS bill… But, alas, it's only a small part of the question.

Thanks for the base line information. I wish I had a line item break down for Boston as well as the complete rebuild of the international section of Montreal and we could have a deeper discussion.


I wish I had a breakdown as well, but I could not find the general bill for the international jetty reconstruction.

Some of our members here feel the A380 only costs an airport the cost of a dual bridge jetway and some extra concrete, and the only reason many commercial airports don't support A380 is some sort of anti-A380 conspiracy.

In my case I see there is some padding in the BOS $168M number, and was the one that some of it goes to refurbishing the other gates, but to me the whole reason the terminal is being expanded is that each A380 is adding an A330's worth of passengers to the same space at the same time and unless you are in the unusual situation where you have an underutilized international terminal you are going to have to expand the terminal to service the A380.


Or, like in YUL's case, you have to expand anyway, and may as well add the A380 capability to a few gates, for little marginal cost. The general backdrop to all that was the end of the long YMX saga and the return of long-haul flights to YUL, in two stages, with regular flights moving in 1997 and charters in 2004. But, as I said, even though the air movement congestion was eased a little, the terminal's own congestion worsened, in spite of the enlargement works, which goes according to your point.

It's far more likely the reason that A380 service is not present at various selected airports is the challenge of expanding the facilities to support the additional A380 traffic rather than some sort of anti-A380 conspiracy.


Or because demand simply is not there. Fragmentation has worked its way, for instance, in the YUL-France market: even though AF is still the biggest single carrier on YUL-PAR, with up to three flights a day in summer, TS' and AC's flights to the French province have certainly eroded the market to Paris.

From the late '70s to YMX closure, 747s in various guises were very commons in Montreal. Now, there are more travelers in YUL alone than at both airports at the time of the double cul-de-sac, but the biggest planes are somewhat smaller. And I do not quite see any 779 picking up the crown, once the last 744 will have left for good.
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Matt6461
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Re: Reuters:Airbus ready to phase out A380 if fails to win Emirates deal

Tue Jan 16, 2018 8:25 pm

Bricktop wrote:
william wrote:
SomebodyInTLS wrote:

As I've argued several times already, Emirates killed the market for all the other airlines and actually limited A380 sales. They did *NOT* save it.


That point cannot be emphasized enough and will be the topics of "what ifs" in the future. If EK did not in essence monopolized the A380, what would the airline landscape look like now?

And as I have said before (without rebuttal IIRC) I don't buy that. Please describe which airlines would have picked up those 100 or so frames, and the routes where they would be flying them. To be fair, you really need to place a lot more than 100 to say EK limited the A380. It should be a very easy exercise given all the hindsight of the last 10+ years. You may know more than me, because I couldn't do it. ;)


Ugh. Aither made this argument up thread btw, including a proposed list of A380 purchasers absent EK. I started to respond but it hurt my brain to contemplate the motivated cognition I was working against. Good luck.

SomebodyinTLS's entire thesis should be negated by the natural "World without EK" experiment that is the U.S.-EastAsia market, where EK is a non-factor. That natural experiment shows that in a no-EK world there remains very little demand for A380's.

TATL is a similar natural experiment, though EK had some effect there by "stealing" India-bound traffic from TATL.

EK is nearly a non-factor on most of Europe-Korea/Japan/China. EK's routings via DXB are massively circuitous and would attract only the lowest-yield traffic.
 
Bricktop
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Re: Reuters:Airbus ready to phase out A380 if fails to win Emirates deal

Tue Jan 16, 2018 8:42 pm

Matt6461 wrote:
Bricktop wrote:
william wrote:

That point cannot be emphasized enough and will be the topics of "what ifs" in the future. If EK did not in essence monopolized the A380, what would the airline landscape look like now?

And as I have said before (without rebuttal IIRC) I don't buy that. Please describe which airlines would have picked up those 100 or so frames, and the routes where they would be flying them. To be fair, you really need to place a lot more than 100 to say EK limited the A380. It should be a very easy exercise given all the hindsight of the last 10+ years. You may know more than me, because I couldn't do it. ;)


Ugh. Aither made this argument up thread btw, including a proposed list of A380 purchasers absent EK. I started to respond but it hurt my brain to contemplate the motivated cognition I was working against. Good luck.


You mean ..

Aither wrote:
CX +20
SQ +10
TG +10
MH +5
PR +10
LH +15
BA +15
AF +10
KL +5
QF +10
Total : 110


I didn't remember seeing this before, but if so, I see what you mean.
20 for CX? :white: But let's play along. Where would they fly them (not directed at Matt6461) and what about the other 90?
I did get a chuckle from TG/MH/PR for 25 though.
 
Bald1983
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Re: Leahy announces airbus may have to stop A380 production on Webcast!

Tue Jan 16, 2018 8:53 pm

PW100 wrote:
Bald1983 wrote:
PW100 wrote:

Why?

Perhaps we're aviation nuts, and we like more diveristy. Especially 4-holers . . . ?


Well, then that is why we have photos. However, the purpose of any business is to make money.


Well, YOU asked the question. How can you be amazed that someone else is sorry if the limited diversity in airliners will get even smaller?

I gave an honest answer that I expect would suit most of our fellow members. I like discussing aviation. I like taking pictures of airplanes. The more models, the happier I am. Sorry to hear that you don't belong to that club of aviation enthusiasts.


Oh, I see. In that case, let us expand. I would like to see the Vickers Viscount re-introduced, not to mention the 707, DC-8, DC-9, 747, DC-10, and the 727. The A-300 should be brought back as well. We need more diversity. All of these aircraft played a role in advancing commercial aviation, with the possible exception of the A-380. Many more have as well. The reason the A-380 is an exception is, while it is an impressive piece of design and engineering, it came too late for where the industry seems to be going. I like them all. However, with the exception of the 747, it is doubtful that anyone would spend much time discussing these other aircraft. I like aircraft but I am a realist. IN this thread there has been a mix of opinions some more like your perspective and others trying to argue whether the A-380 can be an asset or not. If your perspective is that none of that matters, then go A-380. I enjoyed filming them in Sydney. If the perspective is where things are going, then get real and except that it is going to be twin engine aircraft.
 
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Matt6461
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Re: Reuters:Airbus ready to phase out A380 if fails to win Emirates deal

Tue Jan 16, 2018 9:02 pm

Re the discussion of airport costs between Revelation and others, another data point is Vienna's ~$20mn for an A380 gate: viewtopic.php?t=601421.

That's below the ~$55mn [168/3] from the Boston case and above the $600k from the YUL case.

I want to point out if $20mn is the number, it's a small fraction of the costs associated with operating a route:

  • A380's actual sales price is ~$250mn
  • Ownership cost is ~25% of direct operating cost (DOC)
  • $20/$250 = 8%
  • .08*.25 = 2%
  • A380's per gate? Let's say you need one gate for every 4 A380's. That means the gate is only 25% occupied assuming 1.5hr gate dwell.
  • .02/4 = 0.5%

Now, it wouldn't be fair to say that we impute all gate costs to the A380 but not to other types. Sure, you have to expand/build a gate/terminals to accommodate A380's, but it's not like you build nothing for A350's or 787's.

But still, even if we impute ALL of $20mn to the A380 and only to it, that is only 0.5% of DOC.
An airline that really, really needed to fly the A380 somewhere could pay the airport to build a gate if the A380 were economically attractive to it.
In practice, we see that HNL, BOS, and ORD have all obliged as soon as airlines wanted to fly A380's to them. Earlier in the case of ORD.
SEA is the only U.S. example of an airline wanting to fly in A380's and the airport not obliging, AFAIK. Even there, I'm not sure how motivated EK is to use A380's instead of 777's.

So I believe the infrastructure issues with the A380 are real but are only a marginal economic factor that has not materially impacted its use.

We have to return to the basic fact here: The A380 is a bad airliner.
It massively escalates scale while only marginally escalating efficiency.
In a world in which airlines "right-size" by find an attractive capacity/efficiency tradeoff, the A380 loses.
As I show above, gate/terminal expenses are a small portion of airline system costs, and it would make total sense to spend millions on gates if the A380 were a good VLA. In the marginal cases where the A380 works, airports are willing to spend.

But we don't have that kind of VLA.
Hopefully some day we will; for that the A380 must die.
 
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Re: Reuters:Airbus ready to phase out A380 if fails to win Emirates deal

Tue Jan 16, 2018 9:10 pm

Bricktop wrote:
I didn't remember seeing this before, but if so, I see what you mean.
20 for CX?


Yeah it's ridiculous. Aither's argument is that CX needed to balance flying to U.S. with Europe flights and that EK prevented those Europe flights. There are so many problems with the whole thing that I didn't even respond - again it made my brain hurt. But to start, I have to repeat that EK is NOT a big factor on Europe-China/Korea/Japan/Taiwan. That's enough to make the argument fall apart.
 
dtw2hyd
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Re: Reuters:Airbus ready to phase out A380 if fails to win Emirates deal

Tue Jan 16, 2018 10:36 pm

Aircellist wrote:
Cost for making a gate A380-ready at YUL: CA$ 600 000, some time before 2009, as per this article:
http://classement.lesaffaires.com/secte ... ans/505601

(extra cost for a two-levels jet bridge and the interface building, added on top of a complete rebuild of the international section of the airport)..


A single jet bridge construction costs north of $13 Million. Not sure what kind of word magic resulted in $600K.

It is probably the difference between a Cat-V/Code E to Cat-VI/Code F. The cost of one more extension section, maybe.

ATL spent $30M on making runways/taxiways Cat-VI/Code F compatible. New gate F3 cost about $14M. ~ $44 Million total for A380.

If it is just $600K to upgrade one gate every airport would have done by now.

It is cheaper make a brand new airport or terminal Cat-VI/Code F.
 
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SomebodyInTLS
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Re: Reuters:Airbus ready to phase out A380 if fails to win Emirates deal

Tue Jan 16, 2018 11:22 pm

Bald1983 wrote:
Nice try on your moving the goal posts but Airbus predicted 1,200 sales of the A-380 and planned on it being the only real VLA out there.


That is flat out wrong and I simply can't be bothered to go source all the quotes and articles to prove yet again when people deliberately repeat these falsehoods every couple of months. I am pretty sure I have done all the legwork before in response to past posts of yours - not this time.
"As with most things related to aircraft design, it's all about the trade-offs and much more nuanced than A.net likes to make out."
 
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Re: Reuters:Airbus ready to phase out A380 if fails to win Emirates deal

Tue Jan 16, 2018 11:32 pm

rj777 wrote:
What is in the running against the A380 in this order?


This is far enough out that EK doesn't have to decide yet, assuming that it orders aircraft from more established programs.

One assumes the easiest answer is "more 777-9, deployed with more frequency." But EK is so big that it could easily deploy the A350-1000, or an A350-1100 stretch, right alongside the 777-9. Or in a low-growth scenario it could add more 787 orders and replace early A380s with its existing 777-9 order.
 
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Re: Reuters:Airbus ready to phase out A380 if fails to win Emirates deal

Tue Jan 16, 2018 11:39 pm

What China hopes to get out of the A380 deal-

https://www.bloomberg.com/gadfly/articl ... irbus-a380
 
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Re: Reuters:Airbus ready to phase out A380 if fails to win Emirates deal

Wed Jan 17, 2018 2:36 am

SomebodyInTLS wrote:
AvObserver wrote:
Jayafe wrote:

That's definitely one more US trauma about the A380. The airports that could support the A380 and can't handle it (regular operation) are not more than a few around the whole world (US apart as they simply refuse slightly adapting their facilities for absurd nationalistic reasons).


What's absurd is this post. More US airports would absolutely adapt for the A380 IF it made economic sense to do so. Since no US carriers operate it, that limits the rationale for doing so. For only the biggest east and west coast airports, JFK and LAX, does it make sense. Attaching a silly nationalistic angle to this is just comical. U.S airlines rejected the A380 AND the B747-8I because big quads no longer fit their business models. If you could look beyond your apparent hatred of the U.S., you'd see that's ALL it's really about.


To rein in the rhetoric a little - Jayafe's point was that the A380 does *not* require major changes to airports and in fact most airports can already handle it... and that this false argument against the A380 seems to pop up regularly from US-based posters. I don't think US airports are as unsuited to A380 operations as people believe.


Regardless as to whether or not U.S. airports could handle the A380 (AND the 747-8I) with some investment, my point was that they obviously don't see a business case for doing so. He attached a ridiculous nationalistic angle without foundation for their failure to upgrade for VLAs. That really has no place in this discussion. It's strictly about whether or not Emirates and Airbus will come to terms on an additional A380 order. I suspect they eventually will because they indeed need each other.
 
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Re: Reuters:Airbus ready to phase out A380 if fails to win Emirates deal

Wed Jan 17, 2018 1:01 pm

AvObserver wrote:
It's strictly about whether or not Emirates and Airbus will come to terms on an additional A380 order. I suspect they eventually will because they indeed need each other.

I'm starting to wonder. In the past I think it's safe to presume that EK got good terms on its A380 purchases. They bought in large volume, and they were the pathfinder and the showcase for the the product. This in turn brought along with it good financing. Now things have changed. EK's role will be to keep the product alive. Airbus will want to minimize losses. Financiers can no longer pretend there will be a thriving market for used A380s. They will not want to write paper on the same terms they used to. There's been dead silence from EK on these latest Airbus statements, both when they were unconfirmed and now that they are confirmed. Airbus's new leadership regime will not want to carry the A380 on its books in the vain hope that the market will one day embrace the product. I don't think their threat to shut down the product is a bluff.
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Re: Reuters:Airbus ready to phase out A380 if fails to win Emirates deal

Wed Jan 17, 2018 1:52 pm

AvObserver wrote:
SomebodyInTLS wrote:
AvObserver wrote:

What's absurd is this post. More US airports would absolutely adapt for the A380 IF it made economic sense to do so. Since no US carriers operate it, that limits the rationale for doing so. For only the biggest east and west coast airports, JFK and LAX, does it make sense. Attaching a silly nationalistic angle to this is just comical. U.S airlines rejected the A380 AND the B747-8I because big quads no longer fit their business models. If you could look beyond your apparent hatred of the U.S., you'd see that's ALL it's really about.


To rein in the rhetoric a little - Jayafe's point was that the A380 does *not* require major changes to airports and in fact most airports can already handle it... and that this false argument against the A380 seems to pop up regularly from US-based posters. I don't think US airports are as unsuited to A380 operations as people believe.


Regardless as to whether or not U.S. airports could handle the A380 (AND the 747-8I) with some investment, my point was that they obviously don't see a business case for doing so. He attached a ridiculous nationalistic angle without foundation for their failure to upgrade for VLAs. That really has no place in this discussion. It's strictly about whether or not Emirates and Airbus will come to terms on an additional A380 order. I suspect they eventually will because they indeed need each other.


:highfive:
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Re: Reuters:Airbus ready to phase out A380 if fails to win Emirates deal

Wed Jan 17, 2018 2:10 pm

Revelation wrote:
AvObserver wrote:
It's strictly about whether or not Emirates and Airbus will come to terms on an additional A380 order. I suspect they eventually will because they indeed need each other.

I'm starting to wonder. In the past I think it's safe to presume that EK got good terms on its A380 purchases. They bought in large volume, and they were the pathfinder and the showcase for the the product. This in turn brought along with it good financing. Now things have changed. EK's role will be to keep the product alive. Airbus will want to minimize losses. Financiers can no longer pretend there will be a thriving market for used A380s. They will not want to write paper on the same terms they used to. There's been dead silence from EK on these latest Airbus statements, both when they were unconfirmed and now that they are confirmed. Airbus's new leadership regime will not want to carry the A380 on its books in the vain hope that the market will one day embrace the product. I don't think their threat to shut down the product is a bluff.



No, its not a bluff.and the points you bring out is why this order has not been announced yet.Remember when Mr. Clark was publicly singing the praises of the A380 and that other airlines would do well to order the aircraft? He knew this day may come if other did not order. What EK did not count on was Airbus's," You need me more than I need you" stance in the A380 negotiations. That used to be EK's negotiation ploy.

Still think a deal gets done, but it will not be as generous for reasons Revelation stated.
 
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Re: Reuters:Airbus ready to phase out A380 if fails to win Emirates deal

Wed Jan 17, 2018 2:26 pm

Airbus has one big advantage when negotiating with EK - it does not have a program accounting number to amortise. All the development costs for the A380 have been written off.

To keep the programme going is actually detrimental to Airbus as more losses will be incurred and Airbus will need to charge these to the P&L account. To close the A380 line will not cost it anything - it just needs to repurpose the factories to increase production of the A350/A330/A320 lines.
 
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Re: Reuters:Airbus ready to phase out A380 if fails to win Emirates deal

Wed Jan 17, 2018 2:45 pm

dtw2hyd wrote:
Aircellist wrote:
Cost for making a gate A380-ready at YUL: CA$ 600 000, some time before 2009, as per this article:
http://classement.lesaffaires.com/secte ... ans/505601

(extra cost for a two-levels jet bridge and the interface building, added on top of a complete rebuild of the international section of the airport)..


A single jet bridge construction costs north of $13 Million. Not sure what kind of word magic resulted in $600K.

It is probably the difference between a Cat-V/Code E to Cat-VI/Code F. The cost of one more extension section, maybe.

ATL spent $30M on making runways/taxiways Cat-VI/Code F compatible. New gate F3 cost about $14M. ~ $44 Million total for A380.

If it is just $600K to upgrade one gate every airport would have done by now.

It is cheaper make a brand new airport or terminal Cat-VI/Code F.


Yes. As it is, that part of the terminal was completely demolished and rebuilt, so it has to be the difference between that particular gate and the next one, not the price of the gate itself.
"When I find out I was wrong, I change my mind. What do you do?" -attributed to John Maynard Keynes
 
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Re: Reuters:Airbus ready to phase out A380 if fails to win Emirates deal

Wed Jan 17, 2018 4:16 pm

EK over played their hand when they tried to fore Airbus into a NEO. Airbus showed the A380plus and it not a bad upgrade and something Airbus can do on its own, but for a NEO they need an engine OEM to go along. And neither of the 3 is in a position to risk or burn money at the moment. All 3 need to make money from the recent and currently on-going engine projects. When was the last time nearly all mass produced airliners had such modern engines? I would say never.
 
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Re: Reuters:Airbus ready to phase out A380 if fails to win Emirates deal

Wed Jan 17, 2018 4:36 pm

Sometimes you need to take 2 steps backwards before you can take 10 steps forward. While closing the line will hurt in the short term, in the long run it'll be better for Airbus. They can now focus their attention on the A350, a MOM jet to compete with Boeing and the A320NEO.
 
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Re: Reuters:Airbus ready to phase out A380 if fails to win Emirates deal

Wed Jan 17, 2018 4:38 pm

piedmontf284000 wrote:
frmrCapCadet wrote:
I suspect that a 380 could fly for a long time, some airlines have used planes for 25 years. Is there any reason why a 380 could not do the same? 12 years and out always struck me as not all that sensible (in most cases).


Is 25 years even possible? I don't much about fatigue or stress on aluminum alloys, but at some point, I have to wonder if something this massive can do repeated takeoff/landing cycles, fly at high altitudes in severe turbulence, and not be subjected to such stress and fatigue. I realize that all airplanes have the same issues, but the A380 is unlike any other plane ever built. I also realize that there were thousands of hours dedicated to testing the strength of fuselage, but there is just no physical way that any company/scientist/engineer can test for all the different usage variations that would occur day in and day out for these aircraft. I mean not to say that they are unsafe or unreliable, obviously they have proven otherwise, but they have only been flying for 12 years and to suggest another 12 is something I sincerely question. I guess time will tell.

With that said, I think Airbus relying solely on one customer for the continuation of the program is just playing with fire. There are to many risks attached with such a plan. The only thing I can think of, is that Airbus, by getting EK to commit to more A380's and move the program well into the next decade, figures that there might be potential for a new demand of the aircraft down the road with the net result meaning more customers in the future.


BA operated their first generation of 747's nearly 30 years. They probably would have stayed a little longer, but they got parked after the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001 cut demand for transatlantic flights. Planes flying haul routes don't get so many cycles as short haul narrow bodies. Even if they don't have as good fuel economy as newer planes, they cost almost nothing to own, because they have been paid for. BA was using them on shorter transatlantic flights to the east coast of the US, so the higher fuel consumption didn't matter as much. They were flying with less fuel in the tanks to reduce takeoff weight for the shorter flights.
Last edited by flyingclrs727 on Wed Jan 17, 2018 4:44 pm, edited 3 times in total.
 
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Re: Reuters:Airbus ready to phase out A380 if fails to win Emirates deal

Wed Jan 17, 2018 4:38 pm

I repeat: RR does not see a business case, and that is considering two or three possibilities. Airbus does not see a business case in updating, or even maintaining production at a reasonable level. It is often asserted here that financiers do not see a business case. And all of this makes it hard for EK to see a business case. One suspects the JL, the master salesman, went over every possible permutation of all of the above with EK and other airlines to make an OK business case. That he failed was not due to lack of skills or trying.
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dtw2hyd
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Re: Reuters:Airbus ready to phase out A380 if fails to win Emirates deal

Wed Jan 17, 2018 5:08 pm

Another interesting study on fuel burn, posted on viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1383931
https://www.theicct.org/sites/default/f ... 018_vF.pdf

This report actually shows VLA on a ULH mission has the worst fuel burn rate.
 
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Re: Reuters:Airbus ready to phase out A380 if fails to win Emirates deal

Wed Jan 17, 2018 6:45 pm

To be fair this report does not allow to make any conclusion when it comes to aircraft performance, as the seating configuration is not comparable.

If a 767-300ER shows 261 typical seats, a A333 371 seats and a 787-8 241 seats, in addition the individual load factors of the airlines distort the numbers further. This docum,ent only allows conclusion on each airline but nearly none on the planes.
 
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Re: Reuters:Airbus ready to phase out A380 if fails to win Emirates deal

Thu Jan 18, 2018 3:36 am

seahawk wrote:
To be fair this report does not allow to make any conclusion when it comes to aircraft performance, as the seating configuration is not comparable.


The report does give a good macro view of long range Pacific airline operation, as opposed to the micro view of individual airplane performance we often discuss on this forum.

It's pretty apparent why even the new Quads are being displaced by the new Twins, the Quad fuel burn inefficiency weighs heavily against them.
With their low aspect ratio wings, the new Quad airframes are penalized economically compared to the high aspect ratio modern Twins.
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mzlin
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Re: Reuters:Airbus ready to phase out A380 if fails to win Emirates deal

Thu Jan 18, 2018 5:13 am

dtw2hyd wrote:
Another interesting study on fuel burn, posted on viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1383931
https://www.theicct.org/sites/default/f ... 018_vF.pdf

This report actually shows VLA on a ULH mission has the worst fuel burn rate.


This report has the numbers we have all been waiting for. For example, it determines that Qantas has the worst average fuel efficiency per passenger, at 22 passenger-km per L compared to the industry average of 31. That's 29% worse. It also falls behind its nearest competitor, Korean Air, by 4 pax-km/L, which is the largest gap between any two carriers in the ranking.

What are the factors? If you are feeling generous, you might propose that Qantas flights are longer on average, and so their flights have to bank more fuel, so maybe they take off with more weight per passenger on average than their competitors have to.

However that is apparently not the only reason. One factor that is certainly keeping Qantas' efficiency low is it has the lowest average load factor for transpacific flights at 74%. So this should put to rest claims by some that the A380 is right-sized for them, or that A380s are only poorly loaded in one month a year. The report also determines that switching 8 A380s for 8 787-9s will increase efficiency to 28 pax-km/L. (They say this is while keeping the same load factor, but I wonder if they meant instead that it is keeping the same number of passengers.)
 
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seahawk
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Re: Reuters:Airbus ready to phase out A380 if fails to win Emirates deal

Thu Jan 18, 2018 5:52 am

OldAeroGuy wrote:
seahawk wrote:
To be fair this report does not allow to make any conclusion when it comes to aircraft performance, as the seating configuration is not comparable.


The report does give a good macro view of long range Pacific airline operation, as opposed to the micro view of individual airplane performance we often discuss on this forum.

It's pretty apparent why even the new Quads are being displaced by the new Twins, the Quad fuel burn inefficiency weighs heavily against them.
With their low aspect ratio wings, the new Quad airframes are penalized economically compared to the high aspect ratio modern Twins.


Fuel burn efficiency is depending on the cabin layout and the quads are premium heavy compared to the twins in many cases. The study however is making a clear statement on how devastating it is to operate and a large quad and not being able to fill it. The Qantas numbers are nothing but catastrophic. And this risk alone is enough reason to avoid the large quad.
 
Aither
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Re: Reuters:Airbus ready to phase out A380 if fails to win Emirates deal

Thu Jan 18, 2018 6:07 am

Matt6461 wrote:
Bricktop wrote:
I didn't remember seeing this before, but if so, I see what you mean.
20 for CX?


Yeah it's ridiculous. Aither's argument is that CX needed to balance flying to U.S. with Europe flights and that EK prevented those Europe flights. There are so many problems with the whole thing that I didn't even respond - again it made my brain hurt. But to start, I have to repeat that EK is NOT a big factor on Europe-China/Korea/Japan/Taiwan. That's enough to make the argument fall apart.


SQ is operating 19 A380s *despite Emirates* but it is ridiculous to think CX could have order 20 without Emirates....
CX was one of the largest 747 operator and with traffic from HKG X3-4 in the last 15 years...
True CX likes frequencies because they have high yield demand and cargo is very important - or rather was important. But they were already flying high frequency 10 years ago. Some frequencies are also preferred by the passenger. Try to find a seat at a good time from HKG, good luck. That's how some corporate contracts have turned to competition. They have been too conservative, probably for a large part due to the rise of EK.

When you say it has no influence on China - Europe etc. again I have explained my point of view on that : an aircraft is first all about reputation. Without EK more airlines would have place orders for A380s on a regular basis. The perception would have been totally different on the market place and more airlines, including Chinese ones, would have place some orders. I can't prove my perception but neither you can.
Never trust the obvious
 
Aither
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Re: Reuters:Airbus ready to phase out A380 if fails to win Emirates deal

Thu Jan 18, 2018 6:17 am

Matt6461 wrote:
Re the discussion of airport costs between Revelation and others, another data point is Vienna's ~$20mn for an A380 gate: viewtopic.php?t=601421.

That's below the ~$55mn [168/3] from the Boston case and above the $600k from the YUL case.

I want to point out if $20mn is the number, it's a small fraction of the costs associated with operating a route:

  • A380's actual sales price is ~$250mn
  • Ownership cost is ~25% of direct operating cost (DOC)
  • $20/$250 = 8%
  • .08*.25 = 2%
  • A380's per gate? Let's say you need one gate for every 4 A380's. That means the gate is only 25% occupied assuming 1.5hr gate dwell.
  • .02/4 = 0.5%

Now, it wouldn't be fair to say that we impute all gate costs to the A380 but not to other types. Sure, you have to expand/build a gate/terminals to accommodate A380's, but it's not like you build nothing for A350's or 787's.

But still, even if we impute ALL of $20mn to the A380 and only to it, that is only 0.5% of DOC.
An airline that really, really needed to fly the A380 somewhere could pay the airport to build a gate if the A380 were economically attractive to it.
In practice, we see that HNL, BOS, and ORD have all obliged as soon as airlines wanted to fly A380's to them. Earlier in the case of ORD.
SEA is the only U.S. example of an airline wanting to fly in A380's and the airport not obliging, AFAIK. Even there, I'm not sure how motivated EK is to use A380's instead of 777's.

So I believe the infrastructure issues with the A380 are real but are only a marginal economic factor that has not materially impacted its use.

We have to return to the basic fact here: The A380 is a bad airliner.
It massively escalates scale while only marginally escalating efficiency.
In a world in which airlines "right-size" by find an attractive capacity/efficiency tradeoff, the A380 loses.
As I show above, gate/terminal expenses are a small portion of airline system costs, and it would make total sense to spend millions on gates if the A380 were a good VLA. In the marginal cases where the A380 works, airports are willing to spend.

But we don't have that kind of VLA.
Hopefully some day we will; for that the A380 must die.


You forgot the revenue side of the equation.
Gate costs etc. are indeed minor things. But offering capacity when demand wants to fly or does not want to spend 6 hours in transit has enormous value. That's the whole point of flying a big aircraft at a given point in time. The focus is revenue, I would not even care if cost per seat would be marginally higher.
You say A380 is a bad airliner. It's a bad airliner for what ? to serve CNX-DPS, probably. But to serve between hubs it can be very good. It may have a small market, but it's certainly not a bad airliner.
Never trust the obvious
 
Aither
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Re: Reuters:Airbus ready to phase out A380 if fails to win Emirates deal

Thu Jan 18, 2018 6:50 am

dtw2hyd wrote:
Another interesting study on fuel burn, posted on viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1383931
https://www.theicct.org/sites/default/f ... 018_vF.pdf

This report actually shows VLA on a ULH mission has the worst fuel burn rate.


This also ignores the revenue side. A full business class aircraft flying transpacific would have extremely bad economics. Yet it can be highly profitable.
Never trust the obvious
 
Unflug
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Re: Reuters:Airbus ready to phase out A380 if fails to win Emirates deal

Thu Jan 18, 2018 8:21 am

dtw2hyd wrote:
Another interesting study on fuel burn, posted on viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1383931
https://www.theicct.org/sites/default/f ... 018_vF.pdf

This report actually shows VLA on a ULH mission has the worst fuel burn rate.


Actually, it doesn't. They used actual load factors and freight data to simulate fuel burn in Piano 5. They did choose a safe title: "Transpacific Airline Fuel Efficiency ranking" (Airline not Aircraft).

See on page iv: “…freight share was found to be the most important driver overall, explaining almost half of the variation in airline fuel efficiency across carriers, followed by seating density, which accounted for nearly one quarter of the variation. Aircraft fuel burn and passenger load factors were relatively less important.”
 
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TheLion
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Re: Reuters:Airbus ready to phase out A380 if fails to win Emirates deal

Thu Jan 18, 2018 10:19 am

MrBren wrote:


Huge news. And a lifesaver for the whale. Leahy will quit at the top.

It’ll be interesting to see if EK make a top up order in addition to the 20 + 16 mentioned. At current production rates, that’s 4.5 years’ world of production.
 
 
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scbriml
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Re: Reuters:Airbus ready to phase out A380 if fails to win Emirates deal

Thu Jan 18, 2018 10:21 am

That Emirates PR is a bit confusing as it says MOU and firm. :confused:

Still, once firmed and options exercised, that will be another six years of production.
Time flies like an arrow. Fruit flies like a banana!
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KarelXWB
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Re: Reuters:Airbus ready to phase out A380 if fails to win Emirates deal

Thu Jan 18, 2018 10:22 am

What we leave behind is not as important as how we've lived.
 
george77300
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Re: Reuters:Airbus ready to phase out A380 if fails to win Emirates deal

Thu Jan 18, 2018 10:23 am

MrBren wrote:


20 Firm + 16 Options. From 2020 Deliveries.
 
Bricktop
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Re: Reuters:Airbus ready to phase out A380 if fails to win Emirates deal

Thu Jan 18, 2018 11:34 am

Good to see both sides came to their senses (as most here in fairness predicted they would). A good gulp of air for the program, but any objective observer would like to see other carriers step up. Now they have a few years more to do so.
 
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flee
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Re: Reuters:Airbus ready to phase out A380 if fails to win Emirates deal

Thu Jan 18, 2018 11:44 am

Bricktop wrote:
Good to see both sides came to their senses (as most here in fairness predicted they would). A good gulp of air for the program, but any objective observer would like to see other carriers step up. Now they have a few years more to do so.

Well, aircraft like the A321, B77W, etc. postponed the need for VLAs by quite a number of years. With few new runways being built around the world, slots will soon become like gold dust. This is when VLAs will begin to play a more significant role. As many have said, the A380 is ahead of its time. But sooner or later, it will be needed to overcome the shortage of slots at airports.
 
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cv990Coronado
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Re: Reuters:Airbus ready to phase out A380 if fails to win Emirates deal

Thu Jan 18, 2018 11:45 am

Looks like EK needed the A380 more than Airbus. Great news for all! Time may well show that in the end there will still be a place for the A380 especially as things become more congested. Anyway, a win for passengers especially Y pax, I quiet 10AB A380 is way better than a noisy 10AB 777 even I would imagine a 779.
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keesje
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Re: Reuters:Airbus ready to phase out A380 if fails to win Emirates deal

Thu Jan 18, 2018 11:48 am

- The price was so low, EK couldn't refuse
- It was a political decision really
- Boeings are sold out

.. anything but EK needed & bought them for a reasonable price.

Airbus needed the EK order, but EK needs A380s just a s bad.
"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway
 
Bricktop
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Re: Reuters:Airbus ready to phase out A380 if fails to win Emirates deal

Thu Jan 18, 2018 11:56 am

keesje wrote:
- The price was so low, EK couldn't refuse
- It was a political decision really
- Boeings are sold out

.. anything but EK needed & bought them for a reasonable price.

Airbus needed the EK order, but EK needs A380s just a s bad.

Oh please.Emirates needed to buy them, Airbus needed to sell them and they came to a deal.
Big boy commercial negotiation. The other stuff is gratuitous and just chumming the water. Tsk tsk.

I bet the people with real skin in the game, STC and JL don't take this stuff 1% as personally as a.net posters do.
 
tropical
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Re: Reuters:Airbus ready to phase out A380 if fails to win Emirates deal

Thu Jan 18, 2018 12:09 pm

Fantastic news :)

I look forward to views and reactions from A.netters cross the Pond as they wake up the the story. There might be a few mouthfuls of cereal flying across breakfast tables.
Last edited by tropical on Thu Jan 18, 2018 12:14 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
Bricktop
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Re: Reuters:Airbus ready to phase out A380 if fails to win Emirates deal

Thu Jan 18, 2018 12:11 pm

tropical wrote:
Fantastic news :)

I look forward to views and reactions from A.netters cross the Pond as they wake up the the news.

Well this US a.netter is very pleased that this finally happened. We could do with less of the child's playground stuff though.
It's insulting and demeaning to people who care more about the plane than its country of origin, and it drags this place down.
 
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keesje
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Re: Reuters:Airbus ready to phase out A380 if fails to win Emirates deal

Thu Jan 18, 2018 12:17 pm

+1

Maybe a Mod can close & replace by a new:

"A380 Sales, Production Rates & Deliveries 2018-2023"
"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway
 
ACYYZA345
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Re: Reuters:Airbus ready to phase out A380 if fails to win Emirates deal

Thu Jan 18, 2018 12:39 pm

Bricktop wrote:
Jayafe wrote:
There were supposed to be a few slots empty in 2019. Wondering if A will go with white tails.

keesje wrote:
- The price was so low, EK couldn't refuse
- It was a political decision really
- Boeings are sold out


That's indeed going to be the rhetoric in a.net for a while. See you back in a new "Is the A380 dead?" thread in a couple of years :stirthepot:

Please stop fanning the flames. The burning martyr routine is past its sell-by date. More avgeek, less pot-stirring all around is what we need here.


Well said! Fantastic news for Emirates, Airbus, and passengers alike. The passenger experience on the A380 is excellent... quiet (especially on the upper deck) and spacious.
 
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qf789
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Re: Reuters:Airbus ready to phase out A380 if fails to win Emirates deal

Thu Jan 18, 2018 1:36 pm

Thread has gone off topic and personal, thread will be locked
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