Arion640
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Re: Reuters:Airbus ready to phase out A380 if fails to win Emirates deal

Thu Dec 28, 2017 12:54 pm

LAX772LR wrote:
Arion640 wrote:
BA have said their 777's will see 30 years of service, I wouldn't be surprised if they push the A380's to do the same thing. No reason why aircraft can't fly this long if properly maintained.

Plenty of reasons. Not the least of which being if the aircraft's market value falls below the cost of mtx. That's exactly what's happening to the (non-ER) 744 for 2018, and why essentially every major airline got rid of them before year's end.

BA is one of the few majors to see a cost benefit in making the required maintenance modifications necessary to keep the 744 flying, and that's likely because they had so many more than anyone else: the scale justified the cost.


You raise a fair point.

However it has been noted it's easier and cheaper to maintain and fly the A380 over the 747 due to being a newer design with more technological advancements (what specific ones are, I don't know, It's just been mentioned on here more than a few times. The engine the 747-400 uses is a lot older (RB's in BA's case) than the trent engine on the A380.

Time will tell, the last A380 operator bar EK/SQ could possibly be BA.
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Revelation
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Re: Reuters:Airbus ready to phase out A380 if fails to win Emirates deal

Thu Dec 28, 2017 1:00 pm

CARST wrote:
I think the important question will be this one:

Can the market sustain EK selling its 150 used frames if they replace them by 150 new ones? (Read: Will someone buy them at reasonable prices?)

That problem is not one EK itself needs to solve, since those 150 used frames are owned by leasing entities.

The problem EK has to solve is those leasing firms won't write new paper with favorable terms till that problem gets solved.

Thus EK leans on Airbus for (more) guarantees so it can live with less favorable terms.

And Airbus is naturally fearful of making such guarantees.

Therefore we very well might be approaching the end of the A380's market viability.
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par13del
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Re: Reuters:Airbus ready to phase out A380 if fails to win Emirates deal

Thu Dec 28, 2017 1:02 pm

CARST wrote:

Also they didn’t change aviation or the market of transportation in total. They just took traffic away from other airlines which existed long before them. These 150 A380s would be Flying today in the fleets of BA, AF, LH, SQ, NH, TG, QF and CI. Just to name a few players who dominated the market between Europe and Africa/Asia/Australia.
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I find it hard to believe that the likes of BA, AF, LH, SQ etc would have been beating down the doors of ME countries to set up hubs to funnel traffic between the continents.
The existence of the hub based purely on their geographic location created additional traffic, yes the EU carriers could have continued to over charge for travel but since SQ showed the world how a intermediate hub can function and be successful, why would we believe that the idea to do one in the ME would never surface?
 
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jetfuel
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Re: Reuters:Airbus ready to phase out A380 if fails to win Emirates deal

Thu Dec 28, 2017 1:06 pm

Are all Emirates A380s leased on external operating leases where they can be returned?

I believe that not ALL are.
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CARST
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Re: Reuters:Airbus ready to phase out A380 if fails to win Emirates deal

Thu Dec 28, 2017 1:13 pm

par13del wrote:
CARST wrote:

Also they didn’t change aviation or the market of transportation in total. They just took traffic away from other airlines which existed long before them. These 150 A380s would be Flying today in the fleets of BA, AF, LH, SQ, NH, TG, QF and CI. Just to name a few players who dominated the market between Europe and Africa/Asia/Australia.
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I find it hard to believe that the likes of BA, AF, LH, SQ etc would have been beating down the doors of ME countries to set up hubs to funnel traffic between the continents.
The existence of the hub based purely on their geographic location created additional traffic, yes the EU carriers could have continued to over charge for travel but since SQ showed the world how a intermediate hub can function and be successful, why would we believe that the idea to do one in the ME would never surface?


The idea of an intermediate hub was not new. This was concept which made CZ and SQ big in their haydays.

The market sure would look different without the ME3 airlines, but I don’t think there would have been any disadvantage for customer without them. The competition between the three large alliances and non-aligned airlines would have been large enough to not allow any market distorting prices to be taken by the airlines.

And who knows which other airlines would have flourished without the ME3? AirAsiaX with their longhaul idea? Would have Norwegian entered the market earlier? Would have FR gone longhaul? This is all total hypothetical, but so is saying the market only transformed that way due to EK forming the first real Mid East hub.

When EK started forming its hub, worldwide pax numbers just started going through the roof. Look what changed in Asia since 2005. Looks what changed in Europe. In 2005 the worlds airlines saw less than 2 billion passengers. This year we’re closing in on 3.8 billion. They just got the money at the right time, when the aftershocks of 9/11 and the dot.com bubble bursting were forgotten and the world wide economy went into a full upswing. Everyone would have had success in this time. Well, at least with a good management and sound business plan. But still, the legacy airlines together with other new entrants would have provided enough competition. EK is here to stay IMHO, but that doesn’t mean that they were necessary for anything that happened in the aviation market in the last 20 years.


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astuteman
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Re: Reuters:Airbus ready to phase out A380 if fails to win Emirates deal

Thu Dec 28, 2017 1:17 pm

Revelation wrote:
The 779 will be the replacement of choice, IMHO. All the fliers of the big trunk routes already have 777s in their fleet or on order, and they all seem to be pretty satisfied with the product. There will be some hold outs but if Airbus kills the A380 now they'll give the 779 a lot of opportunities over the next decade or so.


I'm pretty sure that Airbus would have an absolute hawk-eye on the number of opportunities that do, or don't, get presented to the 779 in the absence of the A380 and presence of the A350-1000.

Should the market look even remotely worthwhile, they would respond either with a new large twin, or (more likely IMO) the stretch A350-8000, which could be brought to market relatively quickly, and given the hike to 316t MTOW, be quite a capable airframe, even on the current Trent XWB's
(For reference, a fag-packet calculation makes the nominal range with 400 pax around 7 100-7 200nm on 108t fuel tanked - still approaching 20% less fuel/km than a 77W)

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Revelation
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Re: Reuters:Airbus ready to phase out A380 if fails to win Emirates deal

Thu Dec 28, 2017 1:26 pm

astuteman wrote:
Revelation wrote:
The 779 will be the replacement of choice, IMHO. All the fliers of the big trunk routes already have 777s in their fleet or on order, and they all seem to be pretty satisfied with the product. There will be some hold outs but if Airbus kills the A380 now they'll give the 779 a lot of opportunities over the next decade or so.

I'm pretty sure that Airbus would have an absolute hawk-eye on the number of opportunities that do, or don't, get presented to the 779 in the absence of the A380 and presence of the A350-1000.

Should the market look even remotely worthwhile, they would respond either with a new large twin, or (more likely IMO) the stretch A350-8000, which could be brought to market relatively quickly, and given the hike to 316t MTOW, be quite a capable airframe, even on the current Trent XWB's
(For reference, a fag-packet calculation makes the nominal range with 400 pax around 7 100-7 200nm on 108t fuel tanked - still approaching 20% less fuel/km than a 77W)

True, although the next calculation they'll have to do is does the market opportunity justify the spend at the same time they'll be absorbing the costs they'll be taking to shut down the A380.

Seems the new regime will have some interesting issues to work on.
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Arion640
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Re: Reuters:Airbus ready to phase out A380 if fails to win Emirates deal

Thu Dec 28, 2017 1:44 pm

Has the A380 help kill 777X orders does anyone think?
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Re: Reuters:Airbus ready to phase out A380 if fails to win Emirates deal

Thu Dec 28, 2017 1:45 pm

They're clearly negotiating over the press for new orders.
EK is probably saying that they will pass and keep existing frames longer as a negotiating ploy and Airbus spreading panic among lessors as EK still needs the ones on order right now to be financed.
EK will order and they will order big. What other choice do they have? Cut down to B777X and slowly vanish into oblivion?
If EK can't order big, perhaps there are bigger questions to ask about EK's future and not only the A380 but the entire VLA market, including the B777X. If they can't get financing for A380's, rumors will spread quickly and the next big problem will be securing affordable financing for the B777X's and B787's. The B787's could still find financing due to being a popular model and perhaps that's why they ordered them?
Perhaps EK is experiencing major difficulties securing any financing at all for their new aircraft deliveries. It mustn't be easy to find a couple hundred millions worth of risk appetite at every aircraft delivery for an airline that isn't very transparent...
 
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par13del
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Re: Reuters:Airbus ready to phase out A380 if fails to win Emirates deal

Thu Dec 28, 2017 2:01 pm

Well if EK does not order is there anyway that their lease holders will demand their a/c back, or do we believe that without an order they will simply cease using its A380's once the 10 year lease term is up?
 
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Re: Reuters:Airbus ready to phase out A380 if fails to win Emirates deal

Thu Dec 28, 2017 2:02 pm

European legacies have no right to complain here. They couldn't respond to the ME3 phenomenon, mostly because they couldn't deal with their own unions and night time curfews. EK is not worried about EU legacies, it is worried about LHLCCs like Norwegian.
 
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Re: Reuters:Airbus ready to phase out A380 if fails to win Emirates deal

Thu Dec 28, 2017 2:27 pm

Arion640 wrote:
Has the A380 help kill 777X orders does anyone think?


779X is a better 77W ( just like the A35K, but plus some growth.)
it still ( even more so?) is the sardine carrier route opener.

779X is not a better A380 at all. vice versa neither.
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Re: Reuters:Airbus ready to phase out A380 if fails to win Emirates deal

Thu Dec 28, 2017 2:36 pm

VV wrote:
KarelXWB wrote:
VV wrote:
Is there any twin 500-seater on offer?


Yep, and it's called 777.


Very interesting.
I didn't know the 777 was a 500-seater.
So, what's an A380 then? A 600-seater or a 700-seater?


77W = 550 exit limit
779 = 475 exit limit
A380 = 868 exit limit
 
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JetBuddy
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Re: Reuters:Airbus ready to phase out A380 if fails to win Emirates deal

Thu Dec 28, 2017 3:19 pm

Worst case scenario, production continues for a decade. If any new sizeable orders appear during that time, I'm sure Airbus would reconsider winding down production. This is just tactics from Airbus trying to secure an order from EK without the 2028+10 years arrangement.
 
Bald1983
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Re: Reuters:Airbus ready to phase out A380 if fails to win Emirates deal

Thu Dec 28, 2017 3:21 pm

LupineChemist wrote:
william wrote:
Of course they are playing chicken and negotiating in the press. Revelation brings up a good point about the change in managament, and the new management may not be as enamored with the A380 as the past manage team was and may be imagining a more profitable Airbus without the A380 slow drain on profits. Does Airbus wants to cancel the A380? Of course not, for various reasons.


My point was more that they both need each other so I expect an order to happen sooner or later after they prod each other some more. It seems clear that EK needs the 380 more than Airbus needs to produce it, though. I just think the hyperbole people speak about it being a successful game changer aircraft or a complete financial failure are all overblown. In the end it's a great passenger passenger experience and a pretty underwhelming business case but not a catastrophe. But the main point being, Airbus will manufacture if they can make a marginal profit on each aircraft regardless of how much development costs they recover because they're not getting those back anyway.


I believe Emirates made a mistake investing so much in the A-380. The plane is not suited for profitable airline operations and there are smaller and more capable planes. The fact is, Emirates will account for almost half of ALL A-380's. That cannot be good for the A-380.
 
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Re: Reuters:Airbus ready to phase out A380 if fails to win Emirates deal

Thu Dec 28, 2017 3:25 pm

william wrote:
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-airbus-a380/airbus-ready-to-phase-out-a380-if-fails-to-win-emirates-deal-sources-idUSKBN1EL11L?il=0

Do not know if this is an Airbus trial balloon or there is truth to this.


From that article:
Airbus is drawing up contingency plans to phase out production of the world’s largest jetliner, the A380 superjumbo, if it fails to win a key order from Dubai’s Emirates, three people familiar with the matter said.


Waterbomber wrote:
They're clearly negotiating over the press for new orders.


Haven't read all four pages of comments .... But good Lord! Provided the sources of that article are correct, they are basically fighting for urgently required new orders by threatening to shut down production? Wow :shock: , simply wow :shock: I guess that's unheard-of in civil aviation...
 
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Re: Reuters:Airbus ready to phase out A380 if fails to win Emirates deal

Thu Dec 28, 2017 3:49 pm

Waterbomber wrote:
They're clearly negotiating over the press for new orders.
EK is probably saying that they will pass and keep existing frames longer as a negotiating ploy and Airbus spreading panic among lessors as EK still needs the ones on order right now to be financed.
EK will order and they will order big. What other choice do they have? Cut down to B777X and slowly vanish into oblivion?
If EK can't order big, perhaps there are bigger questions to ask about EK's future and not only the A380 but the entire VLA market, including the B777X. If they can't get financing for A380's, rumors will spread quickly and the next big problem will be securing affordable financing for the B777X's and B787's. The B787's could still find financing due to being a popular model and perhaps that's why they ordered them?
Perhaps EK is experiencing major difficulties securing any financing at all for their new aircraft deliveries. It mustn't be easy to find a couple hundred millions worth of risk appetite at every aircraft delivery for an airline that isn't very transparent...


Not long ago wasn't STC saying he will buy 200 NEOs if Airbus builds one. Now he wants Airbus to keep the line going at 4 per year.

EK is the puppet master, manufacturers and financiers are the puppets. EK has no skin the game other than motivating both puppets, now it appears both puppets have no motivation. Slackers!!!

EK net fleet grew by just 5 frames in 2017 H1. I am not sure it was able to sale and leaseback all 2016 deliveries.

I suppose EK is able to manage because it has a sweetheart deals with A & B. A is not extending the same kind of deal just to win another order. And without Airbus guarantees, no financier would consider buying frames for EK.

Saudi Prince is looking to invest in his own country. When Dubai can build a world-class reputation with his money, he can do the same. I suppose sins associated with western capitalism can be dealt with later.
 
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Re: Reuters:Airbus ready to phase out A380 if fails to win Emirates deal

Thu Dec 28, 2017 3:58 pm

Bald1983 wrote:
LupineChemist wrote:
william wrote:
Of course they are playing chicken and negotiating in the press. Revelation brings up a good point about the change in managament, and the new management may not be as enamored with the A380 as the past manage team was and may be imagining a more profitable Airbus without the A380 slow drain on profits. Does Airbus wants to cancel the A380? Of course not, for various reasons.


My point was more that they both need each other so I expect an order to happen sooner or later after they prod each other some more. It seems clear that EK needs the 380 more than Airbus needs to produce it, though. I just think the hyperbole people speak about it being a successful game changer aircraft or a complete financial failure are all overblown. In the end it's a great passenger passenger experience and a pretty underwhelming business case but not a catastrophe. But the main point being, Airbus will manufacture if they can make a marginal profit on each aircraft regardless of how much development costs they recover because they're not getting those back anyway.


I believe Emirates made a mistake investing so much in the A-380. The plane is not suited for profitable airline operations and there are smaller and more capable planes. The fact is, Emirates will account for almost half of ALL A-380's. That cannot be good for the A-380.


EK obviously disagree with you. They've been operating it quite profitably. No different than the 777X, of which EK account for about half the orders.
 
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Re: Reuters:Airbus ready to phase out A380 if fails to win Emirates deal

Thu Dec 28, 2017 3:58 pm

Bald1983 wrote:
The plane is not suited for profitable airline operations and there are smaller and more capable planes.


One day right next year Emirates will Kowtow you for your superior insights and scrap all their A380 the day after.
They obviously have no commercial value. Just there to further a socialist jobs programme in Europe.

Reminds me of times when people where absolutely certain that items could not exist because they were not mentioned "In The Book".
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Re: Reuters:Airbus ready to phase out A380 if fails to win Emirates deal

Thu Dec 28, 2017 4:01 pm

Slug71 wrote:
VV wrote:
KarelXWB wrote:

Yep, and it's called 777.


Very interesting.
I didn't know the 777 was a 500-seater.
So, what's an A380 then? A 600-seater or a 700-seater?


77W = 550 exit limit
779 = 475 exit limit
A380 = 868 exit limit


Just for fun:

Airbus 340-600 = 475 exit limit
Boeing 747-8I = 605 exit limit
Airbus 330-300 = 440 max seating
Boeing 787-10 = 440 exit limit
Airbus 350 - 900/1000 = 440 exit limit ( apparently there is no difference in the exit limit for the 900 vs 1000 Version wich is a bit odd ? )
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VV
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Re: Reuters:Airbus ready to phase out A380 if fails to win Emirates deal

Thu Dec 28, 2017 4:04 pm

Slug71 wrote:
VV wrote:
KarelXWB wrote:

Yep, and it's called 777.


Very interesting.
I didn't know the 777 was a 500-seater.
So, what's an A380 then? A 600-seater or a 700-seater?


77W = 550 exit limit
779 = 475 exit limit
A380 = 868 exit limit


Does it make the 777 a 500 seater and A380 a 800 seater?
 
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Revelation
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Re: Reuters:Airbus ready to phase out A380 if fails to win Emirates deal

Thu Dec 28, 2017 4:08 pm

N14AZ wrote:
Haven't read all four pages of comments .... But good Lord! Provided the sources of that article are correct, they are basically fighting for urgently required new orders by threatening to shut down production? Wow :shock: , simply wow :shock: I guess that's unheard-of in civil aviation...

It's interesting to compare your (valid) reaction to seabosdca's (valid) reaction:

seabosdca wrote:
This is Leahy and/or Schulz negotiating through the press. What Airbus is saying is true, but it is not new and everyone already knows it. Of course the A380 will go away if EK walks away from it! A low double-digit number of potential top-ups from other airlines, and the promise of replacements for their existing frames 20 years down the road, are not enough to keep the line open in the short term. Anyone can see that.

But EK has most of the leverage here. It can successfully execute its business model with existing A380s and new 777-9s for many years to come. Newer and improved A380s could certainly add some revenue for EK, but not enough to give Airbus significant pricing power.

I'm not sure where I fall along the spectrum.
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Slug71
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Re: Reuters:Airbus ready to phase out A380 if fails to win Emirates deal

Thu Dec 28, 2017 4:09 pm

Mortyman wrote:
Airbus 350 - 900/1000 = 440 exit limit ( apparently there is no difference in the exit limit for the 900 vs 1000 Version wich is a bit odd ? )


The 777-8 and 777-9 also share the same exit limit of 475.

VV wrote:
Slug71 wrote:
VV wrote:
Very interesting.
I didn't know the 777 was a 500-seater.
So, what's an A380 then? A 600-seater or a 700-seater?


77W = 550 exit limit
779 = 475 exit limit
A380 = 868 exit limit


Does it make the 777 a 500 seater and A380 a 800 seater?


I suppose.
 
VV
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Re: Reuters:Airbus ready to phase out A380 if fails to win Emirates deal

Thu Dec 28, 2017 4:10 pm

So, what is the likelihood of Emirates ordering more A380?
That's the only question that matters, I think.
 
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Revelation
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Re: Reuters:Airbus ready to phase out A380 if fails to win Emirates deal

Thu Dec 28, 2017 4:21 pm

Slug71 wrote:
Mortyman wrote:
Airbus 350 - 900/1000 = 440 exit limit ( apparently there is no difference in the exit limit for the 900 vs 1000 Version wich is a bit odd ? )

The 777-8 and 777-9 also share the same exit limit of 475.

Not really. Exit limit is determined by the number of doors, and since the longer a/c really don't need a higher exit limit, they don't add more doors.

Slug71 wrote:
VV wrote:
Slug71 wrote:
77W = 550 exit limit
779 = 475 exit limit
A380 = 868 exit limit

Does it make the 777 a 500 seater and A380 a 800 seater?

I suppose.

I see it differently. The largest A380 config anyone has flown is EK's ~620 pax setup, so ~868 is a theoretical limit, an upper bound, but not reality. It's just another number that shows us where Airbus's mindset was when they designed the A380.
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Re: Reuters:Airbus ready to phase out A380 if fails to win Emirates deal

Thu Dec 28, 2017 4:22 pm

william wrote:
VV wrote:
So, what is the likelihood of Emirates ordering more A380?
That's the only question that matters, I think.


That is what this whole thread is about, the next A380 order but on whose terms, EK's or Airbus's?


Why would EK publicaly humiliate airbus if they plan on ordering more A380s?
 
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Re: Reuters:Airbus ready to phase out A380 if fails to win Emirates deal

Thu Dec 28, 2017 4:24 pm

VV wrote:
So, what is the likelihood of Emirates ordering more A380?
That's the only question that matters, I think.


That is what this whole thread is about, the next A380 order but on whose terms, EK's or Airbus's?
 
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Re: Reuters:Airbus ready to phase out A380 if fails to win Emirates deal

Thu Dec 28, 2017 4:29 pm

Arion640 wrote:
Has the A380 help kill 777X orders does anyone think?



77X is more fighting against the A350-1000. It's tough for the 77X because you need to get a lot of revenues from the extra seats to compensate for a much higher trip cost versus the A350.
But in the future if the A380s flying at peak times when yields are higher are phased out, there could be more opportunities for the 77X.
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Re: Reuters:Airbus ready to phase out A380 if fails to win Emirates deal

Thu Dec 28, 2017 4:29 pm

One more thought - the focus here is on EK and the A380, but what does this do to absolutely anyone else ordering the A380? There is no reason that anyone would look at the A380, now that Airbus has basically said that the program is one life support to see if EK issues a do-not-recessitate or not. It also looks like the market is going to be flooded by a non-trivial percentage of the overall sold A380 market with these birds coming off on leases, plus whatever EK manages to sell to outside carriers.
 
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Re: Reuters:Airbus ready to phase out A380 if fails to win Emirates deal

Thu Dec 28, 2017 4:34 pm

fsabo wrote:
Why would EK publicaly humiliate airbus if they plan on ordering more A380s?

If you look back at various press clippings, EK's CEO has been voicing his concern about the future of the A380 since 2014. I just think that he, and his bosses the owners of EK, were tired of getting inadequate responses to that concern, and things have gotten to the point were a slap across the face if not a kick to the groin was needed to get Airbus to focus on the issue.

Our member Planesmart tells us in this thread that EK has been getting various protections about the future of A380 already, and this is really about getting the same or better protections going forward. He has a lot more experience and information than the average aviation nerd, so it's worth considering that point of view.
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fsabo
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Re: Reuters:Airbus ready to phase out A380 if fails to win Emirates deal

Thu Dec 28, 2017 4:42 pm

Revelation wrote:
fsabo wrote:
Why would EK publicaly humiliate airbus if they plan on ordering more A380s?

If you look back at various press clippings, EK's CEO has been voicing his concern about the future of the A380 since 2014. I just think that he, and his bosses the owners of EK, were tired of getting inadequate responses to that concern, and things have gotten to the point were a slap across the face if not a kick to the groin was needed to get Airbus to focus on the issue.

Our member Planesmart tells us in this thread that EK has been getting various protections about the future of A380 already, and this is really about getting the same or better protections going forward. He has a lot more experience and information than the average aviation nerd, so it's worth considering that point of view.


Perhaps, but it doesn't appear to have worked. Public humiliation is rarely effective. Sharing some risk with airbus and RR would have been far more effective.
 
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Re: Reuters:Airbus ready to phase out A380 if fails to win Emirates deal

Thu Dec 28, 2017 4:49 pm

WIederling wrote:
779X is not a better A380 at all. vice versa neither.


The 779X will be a POS compared to the A380 as far as pax comfort is concerned especially in Y.
 
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Re: Reuters:Airbus ready to phase out A380 if fails to win Emirates deal

Thu Dec 28, 2017 4:52 pm

fsabo wrote:
Revelation wrote:
fsabo wrote:
Why would EK publicaly humiliate airbus if they plan on ordering more A380s?

If you look back at various press clippings, EK's CEO has been voicing his concern about the future of the A380 since 2014. I just think that he, and his bosses the owners of EK, were tired of getting inadequate responses to that concern, and things have gotten to the point were a slap across the face if not a kick to the groin was needed to get Airbus to focus on the issue.

Our member Planesmart tells us in this thread that EK has been getting various protections about the future of A380 already, and this is really about getting the same or better protections going forward. He has a lot more experience and information than the average aviation nerd, so it's worth considering that point of view.


Perhaps, but it doesn't appear to have worked. Public humiliation is rarely effective. Sharing some risk with airbus and RR would have been far more effective.


I don't think it was intentional "humiliation". Deals fall through. It happens. It's business. There was NO guarantees that a deal WILL be done. It was HOPED to be done at Dubai. RR seems to have maybe thrown a spanner in the works too, when they said they will not be providing any more PIPs for the T900. That alone is reason enough to not get a deal signed.
 
WIederling
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Re: Reuters:Airbus ready to phase out A380 if fails to win Emirates deal

Thu Dec 28, 2017 4:54 pm

Revelation wrote:
I see it differently. The largest A380 config anyone has flown is EK's ~620 pax setup, so ~868 is a theoretical limit, an upper bound, but not reality. It's just another number that shows us where Airbus's mindset was when they designed the A380.


Air Austral had ordered A380 with a projected 840 seat one class cabin.
( OK, they foundered on payments :-)
Murphy is an optimist
 
cledaybuck
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Re: Reuters:Airbus ready to phase out A380 if fails to win Emirates deal

Thu Dec 28, 2017 4:56 pm

fsabo wrote:
Perhaps, but it doesn't appear to have worked. Public humiliation is rarely effective. Sharing some risk with airbus and RR would have been far more effective.
EK basically already shares risk with Airbus on this plane by virtue of its huge fleet and large percentage of the order book.
 
VV
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Re: Reuters:Airbus ready to phase out A380 if fails to win Emirates deal

Thu Dec 28, 2017 4:58 pm

william wrote:
VV wrote:
So, what is the likelihood of Emirates ordering more A380?
That's the only question that matters, I think.


That is what this whole thread is about, the next A380 order but on whose terms, EK's or Airbus's?


Didn't Emirates make it obvious that the airline is not going to order extra A380, at least for the medium term?
Or did I miss something?
 
Strato2
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Re: Reuters:Airbus ready to phase out A380 if fails to win Emirates deal

Thu Dec 28, 2017 5:01 pm

Revelation wrote:
~868 is a theoretical limit, an upper bound, but not reality. It's just another number that shows us where Airbus's mindset was when they designed the A380.


Creating the best possible double decker they could with the tech available in 2000 that is not some crazy flying saucer form factor, no cargo hold, churchlike crown space and a twin with 150k engines.
 
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lightsaber
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Re: Reuters:Airbus ready to phase out A380 if fails to win Emirates deal

Thu Dec 28, 2017 5:08 pm

VS4ever wrote:
Revelation wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
Only DWC (and possibly LHR) will be likely candidates for A380 hubbing.

Ironically or not, the world's largest owner of A380s shows how you deal with not having as many flights to LHR as you might want, you fly to LGW, STN, MAN, BHM, etc and pull traffic away from LHR.


your point is definitely valid, however it's not just pulling traffic away from LHR, although that is part of it. BHX for example has a huge Asian (Indian/Pakistani and others) population, which hits right in the sweet spot for DXB and its connections to India, throw in some folks heading to the far east and Australia and not wishing to schlep down to LHR (which although can be done via the M42, M40 and M25), get the wrong time of day, it can be a right PITA and therefore a market you can create. It's amazing to me that an airport that size can sustain double daily A380's to DXB at something basically the size of BNA or AUS. But it's there and it works. Can you imagine the a.net conversations if BA went from a single 789 to double daily A380 to LHR from AUS? I grant you the market isn't the same, so probably not a fair comparison, but that's essentially what EK are doing here.

Yes, there will be alternate airport expansion. For example, I expect LTN to expand as well as STN.

The underinvestment in transportation in Western countries has been staggering. Getting to the airport now takes far longer than a few decades ago. So airports closer to home are even more convenient.

As to double daily A380 from AUS to LHR, that would require far more flights to connect at LHR. LHR could be the world's dominant hub, but it would need the runway(s) we discuss so often that haven't happened in 35+ years. :(

There will be growth, but it takes hub growth to support A380s. LHR would be such a hub if they could grow from 30% connecting traffic (about the minimum to attract connecting passengers, otherwise there aren't enough convenient connections to interest them).

EK's issue is the regional downturn (not surprising after the drop in the price of the #1 export, oil) and poor capacity availability at their hub. EK could use more A380s profitably, but not until they have the funds to go to DWC. The issue with A380s as they are most profitable using minimal slots (it could be by the airport or bilateral limits) with high premium traffic.

Once DWC is built, if EK must go to multiple 779/787-10 or other combinations to replace A380 growth... :yawn: There might be no choice but to go to secondary airports (London is a great example, but there are many examples of metropolitan areas with multiple airports and there will be more).

And for great economics, there must be an A380 NEO. IMHO a stretch too. We can debate 11-across Y, but I think that is pretty much a given. The larger the plane, the lower the CASM must be to offset the risk of empty seats.

Lightsaber
You only have the first amendment with the 2nd. If you're not going to offend someone with what you say, you don't have the 1st.
 
Bricktop
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Re: Reuters:Airbus ready to phase out A380 if fails to win Emirates deal

Thu Dec 28, 2017 5:25 pm

seahawk wrote:
Similar problems would be faced by the 777-9 once EK dumps 500+ on the used market.

I will give you the benefit of the doubt on a typo on that number.

EK "only" have 115 777-9s on order, so after they order another 385 and dump them, then maybe. Assuming some don't go freighter.
I think BCA would be delighted to sell EK 500 779s. I don't know where they would all fly to though.
 
fcogafa
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Re: Reuters:Airbus ready to phase out A380 if fails to win Emirates deal

Thu Dec 28, 2017 5:29 pm

 
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seahawk
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Re: Reuters:Airbus ready to phase out A380 if fails to win Emirates deal

Thu Dec 28, 2017 5:34 pm

Not a typo. 115 on order compared to a fleet of roughly 140 777W + 100 A380s. So if they need to replace the A380 with 777-9, a ration of 1,3 777 for 1 A380 seems realistic. That is about another 130 frames. Now as they only fly them for 10-12 years, the combined fleet of about 280-300 frames would be dumped on the market twice in about 20 years.
 
Geoff1947
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Re: Reuters:Airbus ready to phase out A380 if fails to win Emirates deal

Thu Dec 28, 2017 5:37 pm

KarelXWB wrote:
VV wrote:
Is there any twin 500-seater on offer?


Yep, and it's called 777.


Yes but on that basis the A380 is a 900 seater.

Geoff
 
WIederling
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Re: Reuters:Airbus ready to phase out A380 if fails to win Emirates deal

Thu Dec 28, 2017 5:40 pm

lightsaber wrote:
The underinvestment in transportation in Western countries has been staggering. Getting to the airport now takes far longer than a few decades ago. So airports closer to home are even more convenient.


Nimbys are everywhere.
then compare population densities:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Populatio ... quator.png
EU is mostly densely populated except maybe some places in Spain
while the US is in comparison mostly empty even near urban centers.

China, Japan, ... are even denser populated.
i.e. either it is steaming humanity or inaccessible/unusable areas like mountain ranges.
Murphy is an optimist
 
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Slug71
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Re: Reuters:Airbus ready to phase out A380 if fails to win Emirates deal

Thu Dec 28, 2017 5:53 pm

VV wrote:
william wrote:
VV wrote:
So, what is the likelihood of Emirates ordering more A380?
That's the only question that matters, I think.


That is what this whole thread is about, the next A380 order but on whose terms, EK's or Airbus's?


Didn't Emirates make it obvious that the airline is not going to order extra A380, at least for the medium term?
Or did I miss something?


No they never. They are still working on the deal that fell through.
 
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ElroyJetson
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Re: Reuters:Airbus ready to phase out A380 if fails to win Emirates deal

Thu Dec 28, 2017 6:01 pm

The A380 is mostly a niche frame that works best in a few slot restricted mega hubs like LHR.

There was never a strong business case so just let it die and focus on the things that actually make your shareholders money.
707 717 727 72S 737 733 737-700 747 757 753 767-300 764 A319 A320 DC-9-10 DC-9-30 DC-9-50, MD-82 MD-88 MD-90 DC-10-10 DC-10-40 F-100
 
VV
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Re: Reuters:Airbus ready to phase out A380 if fails to win Emirates deal

Thu Dec 28, 2017 6:15 pm

Slug71 wrote:
VV wrote:
william wrote:

That is what this whole thread is about, the next A380 order but on whose terms, EK's or Airbus's?


Didn't Emirates make it obvious that the airline is not going to order extra A380, at least for the medium term?
Or did I miss something?


No they never. They are still working on the deal that fell through.


Well, I have the feeling they said no, but I can be wrong.

So, what would be a much more obvious message? That they order the 747-8 Intercontinental? LOL.
 
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lightsaber
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Re: Reuters:Airbus ready to phase out A380 if fails to win Emirates deal

Thu Dec 28, 2017 6:24 pm

Strato2 wrote:
WIederling wrote:
779X is not a better A380 at all. vice versa neither.


The 779X will be a POS compared to the A380 as far as pax comfort is concerned especially in Y.

Y has become sell at the lowest cost. Passengers who demand more comfort will pay for it (Y+ or J). Y is such a low cost product today that it must be done on economics. I do not see how the A380CEO can compete without going 11-across. :( I know EK has been public about not going there, but there is a point where economics trumps other concerns until regulatory limits are hit.

The larger the plane, the lower the CASM it must have.

IIRC, the A380 was 14% cheaper per passenger than the 77W (in similar comfort).
Boeing claims the 779 will be 20% cheaper than the 77W or 12% less than the A350-1000 (I would love to know the mission/configuration of this assumption), see link below.
The A380 of 2025 won't be competing against the 77W really. In fact, we have another thread that many of us agree that is when 77W retirements will take off. :(

The A380 will thus be carrying passengers at a higher cost than the 779. We saw how poorly the 744 did versus the 77W when that situation happened. Larger aircraft must pay for the risk of empty seats with a lower CASM.

The airlines are in a bind. Business jets, thanks to their superior privacy, are too competitive for F passengers except on a few routes (e.g., the Kangaroo routes). Business jets also put a cap on J (which has become good enough to displace F for many. So now they are offering Y+ which seams to be evolving into the old business class (seat upright, wider seat, and a little more legroom). It will be those passengers that make most of the profit with Y profit being further squeezed. While we here on a.net will make big noise about Y class comfort and how we'll only fly our favorite, obviously there is a market for discount Y (e.g., look at how many people Norwegian now moves TATL).

Look at the TATL market changes:
BA (largest TATL): 1.87 Million seats for this winter
DL: 1.63 Million seats this winter
UA: 1.60 M
LH: 1.41 M
AA: 1.39 M
AC: 0.94 M
<B> Norwegian 0.86 M </B>
AF: 0.84 M
VS: 0.78M
KLM: .57 M
TK: 0.49 M
(there is a table going to even smaller TATL market share in the link below):

The market is voting for lower cost Y, even at a lesser product level. :(

So those of us who like comfort, but won't pay for the lie flat, will have to debate on Y+ pricing. For people want cheaper fares and that means cutting costs which the 779 will do. For the A380 to compete, it needs to burn less fuel (wing tip treatments and a NEO), 11-across Y, and probably a stretch. As long as it is feeding a growing hub, it will be filled (but there must be a growing hub, e.g., a new runway at a European hub, new airport such as the new Beijing, Istanbul, and say Mumbai). The 744 proved added seats aren't enough.

Fragmentation is happening. Even the 787s and A350s must fly with a hub on one side of a route (if nothing else, to help fill off season seats which means offering in season options to condition customers to flying the routes).


CASM claims by Boeing:
https://www.flightglobal.com/news/artic ... es-443865/

777 thread on retirements:
viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1381177

Link on Norwegian/TATL market share:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/travel/news/ ... tatistics/

Even though I was working a competing project to the A380 (with Airbus, internal competition) at the time of A380 launch, I believe it is an excellent technical product that just didn't live up to its potential. Much is due to the delays imposed by the Catia 4/5 debacle. Without those delays, I am personally convinced FedEx and UPS would have taken their A380Fs and probably purchased more new builds. This would have improved economies of scale (in particular, for GP7200 PIPs as both selected that engine). With the A380F wingbox and gear strengthening, a stretch would have been almost certain.

So we are left with a situation. EK needs guarantees or they should (must?) go to a 779 (A35K too?) fragmentation strategy at DWC. Airbus needs a ROI on new investments. Perhaps the needs of the customer and vendor will be met, perhaps not. EK has been adamant on a NEO and probably other improvements (of which I do not know the specifics) to improve the business case for them. It is for Airbus to sell to other airlines too. Alas, the other A380 operators do not seem to have hubs expanding fast enough to need the seats. :(

Hub bypass is here. Accept it. Embrace it. Hope that your favorite airline plans for it. This doesn't mean hubs won't grow (quite the opposite), it just means fewer bridge hubbing flights. (e.g., why fly Florida to ATL to AMS to the final European destination if Florida to a European hub to the final destination is an option). Or... Single isle service from Northeast USA airports direct to European secondary airports. :hyper:

Lightsaber
You only have the first amendment with the 2nd. If you're not going to offend someone with what you say, you don't have the 1st.
 
Qf648
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Re: Reuters:Airbus ready to phase out A380 if fails to win Emirates deal

Thu Dec 28, 2017 6:41 pm

Yeah have to agree with you there. I prefer to fly on the whale, the thought of QF going twins and a point to point model doesn’t enthrall me at all. Unless of course they can prove their twin jets can offer similar comfort to the whale in economy.

Guess we will find out once the 789 per-lhr rote starts.

However without the Emirates order it’s dead. Economics has won the day again.
 
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LTU1011
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Re: Reuters:Airbus ready to phase out A380 if fails to win Emirates deal

Thu Dec 28, 2017 6:43 pm

A field day for the ones wishing it’s premature demise. The planes in service will surely be put to best use if Airbus indeed discontinues this imho formidable bird. I have witnessed the amount of gluttonous ridicule, ill will, outright hatred from self proclaimed experts and armchair execs alike as a long time lurker before I signed up. As a passenger I indeed book my flights preferably on the A380. I did so for my upcoming US trip. Heading back to FRA I could freely choose from which international hub in Florida Lufthansa serves - no TPA (A343) or MCO (744), clearly MIA was the logical choice. I‘m dreading the day the 779 sardine can 10 abreast serves the LAX trip...
If a man knows not to which port he sails, no wind is favorable. - Seneca
 
strfyr51
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Re: Reuters:Airbus ready to phase out A380 if fails to win Emirates deal

Thu Dec 28, 2017 6:44 pm

piedmontf284000 wrote:
frmrCapCadet wrote:
I suspect that a 380 could fly for a long time, some airlines have used planes for 25 years. Is there any reason why a 380 could not do the same? 12 years and out always struck me as not all that sensible (in most cases).


Is 25 years even possible? I don't much about fatigue or stress on aluminum alloys, but at some point, I have to wonder if something this massive can do repeated takeoff/landing cycles, fly at high altitudes in severe turbulence, and not be subjected to such stress and fatigue. I realize that all airplanes have the same issues, but the A380 is unlike any other plane ever built. I also realize that there were thousands of hours dedicated to testing the strength of fuselage, but there is just no physical way that any company/scientist/engineer can test for all the different usage variations that would occur day in and day out for these aircraft. I mean not to say that they are unsafe or unreliable, obviously they have proven otherwise, but they have only been flying for 12 years and to suggest another 12 is something I sincerely question. I guess time will tell.

With that said, I think Airbus relying solely on one customer for the continuation of the program is just playing with fire. There are to many risks attached with such a plan. The only thing I can think of, is that Airbus, by getting EK to commit to more A380's and move the program well into the next decade, figures that there might be potential for a new demand of the aircraft down the road with the net result meaning more customers in the future.


30 years for tge A380 is totally possiblekeep in mind that the overhauls get more extensive after each one but as long as parts are available and the knowledge TO overhaul the airplane is available? Then the airplane could be viable indefinitely..At United they retired the last B747-422 with a little less than 30 years so keeping the A380 until the 30 year mark should be doable.

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