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Polot
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Re: AIRBUS 2020-2030 development projects A360, A370 opportunities.

Thu May 03, 2018 6:32 pm

keesje wrote:
Airbus has been producing A320s for 30 yrs and a long stream of smaller and larger incremental improvement have been made. R&D never stops, the laboratories, FEM models and windtunnels are making hours all the time.

Now a market segment of around E80 Billion, the A300/310/757/767 segment, seems to become valid again. The market has grown into it, Airbus has several options, a viable one seems a bigger 321.

Now imagine, the Airbus board, at the verge of a 797 launch, dozens of internal people & projects running deciding: "Stop A320 developments folks, a NEO engine supplier has delivery problems, they need to fix that first before we can continue" .

Unreal folks choose to believe it works like that :rotfl:

I don’t think they have halted all development, but at the same time it is important to get all your ducks in order first. Airbus doesn’t want to be developing and selling stretched/rewinged A320neos while at the same time scrambling and dealing with annoyed customers who are getting their A320neos late because Airbus dropped the ball on the production ramp up and sold more planes than they can delivery, all while PW is struggling to keep with current demand.
 
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keesje
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Re: AIRBUS 2020-2030 development projects A360, A370 opportunities.

Thu May 03, 2018 7:01 pm

A ramp up to 60 next year is on schedule, 70 or 70 plus is being studied with the supply chain. Talking about dropping the ball..

http://www.mro-network.com/airframes/airbus-suppliers-discuss-ramp-ups
"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway
 
Newbiepilot
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Re: AIRBUS 2020-2030 development projects A360, A370 opportunities.

Thu May 03, 2018 8:21 pm

keesje wrote:
Airbus has been producing A320s for 30 yrs and a long stream of smaller and larger incremental improvement have been made. R&D never stops, the laboratories, FEM models and windtunnels are making hours all the time.

Now a market segment of around E80 Billion, the A300/310/757/767 segment, seems to become valid again. The market has grown into it, Airbus has several options, a viable one seems a bigger 321.

Now imagine, the Airbus board, at the verge of a 797 launch, dozens of internal people & projects running deciding: "Stop A320 developments folks, a NEO engine supplier has delivery problems, they need to fix that first before we can continue" .

Unreal folks choose to believe it works like that :rotfl:


I don't think anyone said Airbus has stopped A320 development.

May i remind you what you said?

keesje wrote:
I don't think anybody has been pulled off A320plus-plus or any of the other research & developments trajectories.

It's just that management attention at this stage is probably directed at integrating the CSereis and getting the airlines to covert to / order A350-1000's. Campaign seem Qantas, Korean, ANA, still AA, and carriers like AF, LH and SQ for conversions.


You said you dont think anybody has been pulled from A320plus. I quoted an article implying that people have been pulled as they shelve the project in favor of focusing on production. It is a strawhorse argument to say anyone implied all development stopped on the A320.
 
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keesje
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Re: AIRBUS 2020-2030 development projects A360, A370 opportunities.

Thu May 03, 2018 8:39 pm

Newbiepilot wrote:
keesje wrote:
Airbus has been producing A320s for 30 yrs and a long stream of smaller and larger incremental improvement have been made. R&D never stops, the laboratories, FEM models and windtunnels are making hours all the time.

Now a market segment of around E80 Billion, the A300/310/757/767 segment, seems to become valid again. The market has grown into it, Airbus has several options, a viable one seems a bigger 321.

Now imagine, the Airbus board, at the verge of a 797 launch, dozens of internal people & projects running deciding: "Stop A320 developments folks, a NEO engine supplier has delivery problems, they need to fix that first before we can continue" .

Unreal folks choose to believe it works like that :rotfl:


I don't think anyone said Airbus has stopped A320 development.

May i remind you what you said?

keesje wrote:
I don't think anybody has been pulled off A320plus-plus or any of the other research & developments trajectories.

It's just that management attention at this stage is probably directed at integrating the CSereis and getting the airlines to covert to / order A350-1000's. Campaign seem Qantas, Korean, ANA, still AA, and carriers like AF, LH and SQ for conversions.


You said you dont think anybody has been pulled from A320plus. I quoted an article implying that people have been pulled as they shelve the project in favor of focusing on production. It is a strawhorse argument to say anyone implied all development stopped on the A320.


"All" developments, not something I say, although you try to suggest that. I do not believe plus plus or any related projects have been shelved. It's just multi billion cat and mouse play. And media is being used.
"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway
 
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kmz
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Re: AIRBUS 2020-2030 development projects A360, A370 opportunities.

Thu May 03, 2018 10:47 pm

keesje wrote:
kmz wrote:
What ever Airbus is doing, the shouldn't repeat the mistake they did with the A350 Mk1. The next time Boeing comes with a new product to force Airbus into a new product, Boeing won't screw it up like they did with the B787.


Do you mean the 787 was a forced responds to the same sized A330 or something else?
http://www.flightglobal.com/assets/getasset.aspx?itemid=60566


I remember working in TLS at the time of A350MK1; everybody there was so sure that that is the plane everybody wants, hoping they could use their A330 FAL tools. Somebody had to come and tell them that that is not the way to go. If they try to squeeze everything out of the A330- and A320 fuselage, they will end in the same situation. IMHO.
If the A330NEO is a true alternative to the B787, then it also has to provide similar comfort to the PAX, and from what I read, a 9 abreast A330 is worse than a 9 abreast B787 (I admit I never flew either configured plane). And why should airlines fly 8 abreast A330NEO if most of them install 9 abreast on the B787, is the A330NEO still competitive then?
 
RJMAZ
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Re: AIRBUS 2020-2030 development projects A360, A370 opportunities.

Fri May 04, 2018 4:38 am

I don't think they have the engines to do a A322 simple stretch of the A321LR.

When you stretch an aircraft you require additional thrust. Even if you keep the maximum takeoff weight the same you need additional thrust to cover the extra surface drag of the longer fuselage.

In most cases the engines are uprated or derated. For example the 787-10 has 5000lb more thrust than the 787-9 both with the same MTOW.

With the current engines reliability issues I don't think there is any faith that they can get the required 5% additional thrust to use the current small wing. I think this plays a big part.
 
jetsetterusa
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Re: AIRBUS 2020-2030 development projects A360, A370 opportunities.

Fri May 04, 2018 5:36 am

maybe i am tired and all and i did not see a comment on this but what up with the flys on the pics that was shared?
Crazy Day Tripper
 
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TheRedBaron
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Re: AIRBUS 2020-2030 development projects A360, A370 opportunities.

Fri May 04, 2018 6:15 am

jetsetterusa wrote:
maybe i am tired and all and i did not see a comment on this but what up with the flys on the pics that was shared?



That is Kessje trademark on his graphics.... I have seen em for years and sometimes I laugh at the way they are portrayed.... weird but funny.


Back on topic, I agree with Polot and others that I might be completely wrong on the 797 or MOM, but A net has speculated for years about the demise of the 757 and the lack of a suitable replacement, in my view there is no large market for such a substitute and the business case is not there in 2018-2023,maybe next engine technology and better composites will make such an expensive development to be a success , and THEN there will be a case for launch...as of now I don't see it and certainly Airbus will not follow that route and will be producing A321XX for a few years with no real contender.


TRB
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parapente
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Re: AIRBUS 2020-2030 development projects A360, A370 opportunities.

Fri May 04, 2018 9:30 am

Re RJMAZ yes if that is the case it's a dead duck.I thought P&W were planning/bringing out an uprated engine but I could be wrong.As you say it will need one -and yes right now they need to get their reliability rates up first.But that will (must) happen.
In the case of an uprated engine there is no immediate rush as they need to sort the backlog and it would take a couple of years + to develop the stretch anyway.
 
1989worstyear
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Re: AIRBUS 2020-2030 development projects A360, A370 opportunities.

Fri May 04, 2018 12:39 pm

Pfft... They don't need to change anything. Their post-88 designs don't age - PERIOD.
Stuck at age 15 thanks to the certification date of the A320-200 and my parents' decision to postpone having a kid by 3 years. At least there's Dignitas...
 
1989worstyear
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Re: AIRBUS 2020-2030 development projects A360, A370 opportunities.

Fri May 04, 2018 12:46 pm

keesje wrote:
Airbus has been producing A320s for 30 yrs and a long stream of smaller and larger incremental improvement have been made. R&D never stops, the laboratories, FEM models and windtunnels are making hours all the time.

Now a market segment of around E80 Billion, the A300/310/757/767 segment, seems to become valid again. The market has grown into it, Airbus has several options, a viable one seems a bigger 321.

Now imagine, the Airbus board, at the verge of a 797 launch, dozens of internal people & projects running deciding: "Stop A320 developments folks, a NEO engine supplier has delivery problems, they need to fix that first before we can continue" .

Unreal folks choose to believe it works like that :rotfl:


What A320 design changes? Please give part numbers.
Stuck at age 15 thanks to the certification date of the A320-200 and my parents' decision to postpone having a kid by 3 years. At least there's Dignitas...
 
bigjku
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Re: AIRBUS 2020-2030 development projects A360, A370 opportunities.

Fri May 04, 2018 4:52 pm

keesje wrote:
Airbus has been producing A320s for 30 yrs and a long stream of smaller and larger incremental improvement have been made. R&D never stops, the laboratories, FEM models and windtunnels are making hours all the time.

Now a market segment of around E80 Billion, the A300/310/757/767 segment, seems to become valid again. The market has grown into it, Airbus has several options, a viable one seems a bigger 321.

Now imagine, the Airbus board, at the verge of a 797 launch, dozens of internal people & projects running deciding: "Stop A320 developments folks, a NEO engine supplier has delivery problems, they need to fix that first before we can continue" .

Unreal folks choose to believe it works like that :rotfl:


That is one possible conversation they could have had. Another goes like this.

In 2014 Airbus, ridding high on the success of the A320neo and the botch job Boeing did on the 787, runs out the A330neo to the general belief that it will undercut the 787 drastically on price and will dominate the market for shorter range widebodies. It’s a move acclaimed by the avaiation media at the time. The expectation is the cheap A330neo should hold its own on any RFP not specified out to the longest of ranges on the basis of a lower capital cost.

They expect to sell at least 1,000 of them according to the CEO of the Airbus. The bottom line, says Leahy, is we can offer them at very attractive prices. Leahy predicts a rate of 7-8 or even 10 a month at the 2014 launch.

Fast forward to 2018. You have sold only 214 airframes. 30% are to lessors who had to lease some out to HiFly because there were no actual airlines as takers. 28 of those are to Iran and you aren’t sure that is going to happen either. Air Asia X has a ridiculous 30% of the order book that would be for three times as many long haul aircraft as it currently operates.

More to the point the board knows something we don’t. Was it really beaten on price at AA and Hawaiian? This raises a number of questions.

First did we go off half cocked on the business case for this? If so have we missed elsewhere? Maybe they start looking around. The A380 didn’t really work out. The A350-1000 switch for more capability doesn’t seem to have set the world on fire either. You got some orders but EK went elsewhere for a lot of planes. And it wasn’t big and capable enough to stop the 77X from sweeping up a big chunk of the 77W replacement market. The A350-800 folded. The A338 looks like it’s folding. The A339neo isn’t setting the world on fire either. At this point do I trust the people doing the market studies and the business cases to know exactly what they are doing? Seems like a fair question. Maybe we need to press pause before we fire another errant shot here.

Second and perhaps most importantly the board may ask what did we not understand about the pricing dynamics involved here. We just launched a business case based primarily on lower acquisition cost of a legacy airliner with minimal changes other than engines and we can’t beat the competition on price at Hawaiian or American Airlines? Was there something we didn’t understand about either our cost or theirs and how important is that moving forward? Seems like something we better get a handle on moving forward.

Maybe the board looking at more facts than we have saw a major threat industrially and isn’t 100% sure that the way to respond is to continue iterating on existing designs. The A330neo is currently getting its clock cleaned trying to do that. The 787 was a disaster but was launched based on producing planes more cheaply than they had been done before. Perhaps the Airbus board belives this has now been realized and thus is hesitant to to respond to similar plane to the 787 with a derivative of a conventially assembled aircraft?

On some level it’s all conjecture. But to simply say that Airbus is just playing media games seems a cavalier dismissal of possible issues they may face. If they bet wrong on the A330neo because they underestimated the cost reductions the 787 would see that means they didn’t understand Boeing’s cost basis just 4 years ago and at a point they were on the verge of delivering the first A350 which I can only assume would have provided the bulk of their insight into 787 cost for their projections.

Despite their dismissivness NMA is a dangerous aircraft for Airbus. If successful it likely kills the A330 and leaves Boeing with pretty much a straight line of products from the NMA up through the 77X that Airbus is fighting with the A350 alone. It doesn’t leave one much room to operate. It can also works it’s way down into the core of your A320neo business. Perhaps further A320neo work would in the eyes of the board blunt NMA momentum for a time just like the A330ceo rate bumps slowed the 787 but would result in a similar long-term problem? I mean how many eggs do we want to put in the A320neo basket exactly?

There are a ton of questions and what I put here is deliberately a bad case for Airbus. But it’s no more nonsensical than just saying they are playing a media game and there are no issues what so ever we can just crap out an A320neo variant when we need to on demand and it’s the right solution to both our short and long term problems.
 
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kmz
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Re: AIRBUS 2020-2030 development projects A360, A370 opportunities.

Fri May 04, 2018 7:07 pm

keesje wrote:
kmz wrote:
What ever Airbus is doing, the shouldn't repeat the mistake they did with the A350 Mk1. The next time Boeing comes with a new product to force Airbus into a new product, Boeing won't screw it up like they did with the B787.


Do you mean the 787 was a forced responds to the same sized A330 or something else?
http://www.flightglobal.com/assets/getasset.aspx?itemid=60566


by the way, does this chart also exist for 2015 until now?
 
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Matt6461
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Re: AIRBUS 2020-2030 development projects A360, A370 opportunities.

Fri May 04, 2018 7:23 pm

Seahawk wrote:
RR in 2015 expected the Trent 1000 or XWB to generate net positive cash flow around 2020 and to create strong earnings by 2025.


Two things you're missing:
  • 1. 787/A350 re-engine does not - for the 1,000th time - have to be by RR. PW and GE both have the ability to produce an Ultrafan-type engine by ~2027.
  • 2. Nothing about RR's "expectation of profit" from TXWB in the middle of next decade has any relevance to whether a NEO/MAX project would be justified. Look up the fallacy of sunk costs.
 
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Matt6461
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Re: AIRBUS 2020-2030 development projects A360, A370 opportunities.

Fri May 04, 2018 7:26 pm

Eyad wrote:
A380 has a lot of cabin area, it is more than 580 m^2


This is technically true: The A380's UD is about as wide as the 777 at floor level.
But that doesn't matter unless you're seating ants. At usable cabin height level, the UD is ~208in.
The best measure of A380's cabin area is ~545m2.
 
bigjku
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Re: AIRBUS 2020-2030 development projects A360, A370 opportunities.

Fri May 04, 2018 7:29 pm

Matt6461 wrote:
Seahawk wrote:
RR in 2015 expected the Trent 1000 or XWB to generate net positive cash flow around 2020 and to create strong earnings by 2025.


Two things you're missing:
  • 1. 787/A350 re-engine does not - for the 1,000th time - have to be by RR. PW and GE both have the ability to produce an Ultrafan-type engine by ~2027.
  • 2. Nothing about RR's "expectation of profit" from TXWB in the middle of next decade has any relevance to whether a NEO/MAX project would be justified. Look up the fallacy of sunk costs.


I would agree with you generally. What likely sparks the next round of engine replacement in the widebody market is one of two things in my view.

1. If Airbus does do an A380neo it will create an engine right in the wheelhouse for this and I would expect Boeing to move on it with a 787 re engine program.

2. A non duopoly source announces a widebody with a next generation engine on it. In this case it’s more along the lines of the A320neo resolution. Boeing and Airbus can just suck put all the air from a competing widebody by putting the engine on a comparable but proven frame unless the competing plane is substantially more advanced from a aerodynamic or industrial standpoint.

A less likely source of starting this in my view is the desire of either Boeing or Airbus to stretch their existing plastic widebodies. Of the two I think it’s more likely Boeing would consider an 787-10/11 but I don’t think it’s high on their list right now. I think a reengine of the A350 produces a stretch that is maybe growing out of the sweet spot size-wise so Airbus is unlikely to move first. One other alternative is Airbus launching a direct competitor into the teeth of the 787 to replace the A330neo if it doesn’t get traction. That would be bloody though I would think.
 
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Matt6461
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Re: AIRBUS 2020-2030 development projects A360, A370 opportunities.

Fri May 04, 2018 7:37 pm

bijku wrote:
2. A non duopoly source announces a widebody with a next generation engine on it


Or a new competitor using the same engines: CRAIC C929.
This plane is squarely aimed at the 787-9 and it doesn't have to be better to capture a huge share of the China market. Political and/or purchase price considerations will ensure orders if the value propositions are close.
This is the other big reason I see Boeing re-engining 787 earlier than most here assume, which will in turn force Airbus' hand.
 
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keesje
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Re: AIRBUS 2020-2030 development projects A360, A370 opportunities.

Fri May 04, 2018 8:10 pm

Boeing bought back Hawaiian who didn't want to become A338 sole operator, 6 aircraft. AA preferred simply more 787s instead of taking A330NEO for the A350 ordered a decade ago.

This seems to be brought by some as a strategic shift and the final demise of the A330. Maybe hope is overtaking a bit here..
"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway
 
bigjku
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Re: AIRBUS 2020-2030 development projects A360, A370 opportunities.

Fri May 04, 2018 8:23 pm

keesje wrote:
Boeing bought back Hawaiian who didn't want to become A338 sole operator, 6 aircraft. AA preferred simply more 787s instead of taking A330NEO for the A350 ordered a decade ago.

This seems to be brought by some as a strategic shift and the final demise of the A330. Maybe hope is overtaking a bit here..


But you must see it’s nothing more than conjecture either way at this level right? No one here has access to the data to prove things either way. All we can do is look at trends visible to us.

Someone may be wrong or right or the truth may reside in the middle somewhere. But at the moment your interpretation doesn’t rely on actual sales or events as guidepost. It’s your intuition that Airbus is playing media games.

You may be right, I grant that. But you seem entirely unwilling to acknowledge that there are other scenarios far less rosey that may be the case.
 
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keesje
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Re: AIRBUS 2020-2030 development projects A360, A370 opportunities.

Fri May 04, 2018 9:05 pm

The A330 remains to be seen, but it way to early to jump to conclusions. On stopping 321Plus developments, it simply makes no sense, it doesn't bring in money, or save some. It would delay projects because of an unrelated issue. That leads me to conclude this is marketingcommunication.
"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway
 
bigjku
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Re: AIRBUS 2020-2030 development projects A360, A370 opportunities.

Fri May 04, 2018 9:08 pm

keesje wrote:
The A330 remains to be seen, but it way to early to jump to conclusions. On stopping 321Plus developments, it simply makes no sense, it doesn't bring in money, or save some. It would delay projects because of an unrelated issue. That leads me to conclude this is marketingcommunication.


Unless after airlines saw preliminary pricing for NSA Airbus doesn’t feel like there is any point and views it as cash flow maximization time before the A320neo cash spigot gets closed down.
 
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seahawk
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Re: AIRBUS 2020-2030 development projects A360, A370 opportunities.

Fri May 04, 2018 9:41 pm

Matt6461 wrote:
Seahawk wrote:
RR in 2015 expected the Trent 1000 or XWB to generate net positive cash flow around 2020 and to create strong earnings by 2025.


Two things you're missing:
  • 1. 787/A350 re-engine does not - for the 1,000th time - have to be by RR. PW and GE both have the ability to produce an Ultrafan-type engine by ~2027.
  • 2. Nothing about RR's "expectation of profit" from TXWB in the middle of next decade has any relevance to whether a NEO/MAX project would be justified. Look up the fallacy of sunk costs.


But you forget the possibility of an exclusivity contract for RR reaching to a certain year. In the end the only wildcard for a new engine is P&W as GE and RR have little motivation to do one early.
 
Eyad89
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Re: AIRBUS 2020-2030 development projects A360, A370 opportunities.

Fri May 04, 2018 10:33 pm

Matt6461 wrote:
Eyad wrote:
A380 has a lot of cabin area, it is more than 580 m^2


This is technically true: The A380's UD is about as wide as the 777 at floor level.
But that doesn't matter unless you're seating ants. At usable cabin height level, the UD is ~208in.
The best measure of A380's cabin area is ~545m2.


Well, other frames do not use 100% of their cabin areas either. How did you get the 545 figure?
 
Newbiepilot
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Re: AIRBUS 2020-2030 development projects A360, A370 opportunities.

Sat May 05, 2018 12:39 am

keesje wrote:
The A330 remains to be seen, but it way to early to jump to conclusions. On stopping 321Plus developments, it simply makes no sense, it doesn't bring in money, or save some. It would delay projects because of an unrelated issue. That leads me to conclude this is marketingcommunication.


Determining how to increase production rate is not an unrelated issue. The A320 has a very complicated supply chain

Image

Finding a way to increase rate and stay on top of production and supplier issues can certainly draw on engineering resources. To dismiss this and suggest that it is marketing communication is a bit of a stretch.

Airbus wants to go higher in rate:

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-airb ... HY0E2?il=0

Airbus said it saw continued strong demand for narrowbody jets like the A320, allowing it to explore future production rates of “70 or 70-plus” a month, up from around 55 a month now..

But the exact rate goals is a bit confusing

Finance Director Harald Wilhelm said Airbus was only asking for “surge capacity” of that level and the only commitment was for 60 aircraft a month, while redefining that goal as a delivery target rather than a production figure.

“We were surprised by the slightly confusing description of A320 production rates,” Agency Partners analyst Sash Tusa said in a note, while another called the presentation “cryptic”.


And yet they are talking to suppliers about 63 a month.

Industry sources said Airbus had asked key suppliers to ensure their capital investments would support or “protect” a possible production rate of 63 if Airbus needed it.

Airbus is keen to lock in a recent advantage over Boeing in narrowbody jets by speeding up the rate at which it turns orders into deliveries, but faces pushback from some engine makers over the rate which sets a drumbeat for components plants worldwide.


I am wondering if it is just engines suppliers or more than that. On other platforms I am aware of issues with structural parts and interiors delaying production, so there is a lot going on.

All this makes us ask the question on whether Airbus shelved the A320plus and other development plans for the time being so that they can focus on rate and supply chain. If Airbus can’t fulfill delivery dates for A320neos right now, what is the point of trying to sell an A320plus? If they can’t get production rate up and the backlog is too long, who is going to buy the A320plus? I think shelved just means suspended so that they can focus on production rates. Once that stabilizes, they can start the plus again. That is just my uneducated opinion based on reading various articles.

bigjku wrote:
keesje wrote:
Boeing bought back Hawaiian who didn't want to become A338 sole operator, 6 aircraft. AA preferred simply more 787s instead of taking A330NEO for the A350 ordered a decade ago.

This seems to be brought by some as a strategic shift and the final demise of the A330. Maybe hope is overtaking a bit here..


But you must see it’s nothing more than conjecture either way at this level right? No one here has access to the data to prove things either way. All we can do is look at trends visible to us.

Someone may be wrong or right or the truth may reside in the middle somewhere. But at the moment your interpretation doesn’t rely on actual sales or events as guidepost. It’s your intuition that Airbus is playing media games.

You may be right, I grant that. But you seem entirely unwilling to acknowledge that there are other scenarios far less rosey that may be the case.


I completely agree. We don’t know what is going on, but to be unwilling to acknowledge other scenarios besides media games is not logical to me. I do wonder if engine delays are masking other problems or challenges in the supply chain or rate increase efforts.
 
RJMAZ
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Re: AIRBUS 2020-2030 development projects A360, A370 opportunities.

Sat May 05, 2018 2:28 am

Eyad89 wrote:
Well, other frames do not use 100% of their cabin areas either. How did you get the 545 figure?

Other frames don't need stairs at either end of the aircraft taking up space on both decks.

How did you get your 580m2 figure?

There has been so many discussions on the A380-850/900 models and not once have I seen an area figure that high for the 800.

Even a simple staircase That is 1m wide with a steep incline will loose 5m2 of floor space on each deck. So that is 20m2 of area lost with two stairs.

A twin deck aircraft should have more cabin area for its empty weight as it packages so nicely with all of the upper crown space being used. I'm sure you were totally surprised just how much the 787-10 smashes the A380.
 
brindabella
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Re: AIRBUS 2020-2030 development projects A360, A370 opportunities.

Sun May 06, 2018 3:07 am

kmz wrote:
keesje wrote:
kmz wrote:
What ever Airbus is doing, the shouldn't repeat the mistake they did with the A350 Mk1. The next time Boeing comes with a new product to force Airbus into a new product, Boeing won't screw it up like they did with the B787.


Do you mean the 787 was a forced responds to the same sized A330 or something else?
http://www.flightglobal.com/assets/getasset.aspx?itemid=60566


I remember working in TLS at the time of A350MK1; everybody there was so sure that that is the plane everybody wants, hoping they could use their A330 FAL tools. Somebody had to come and tell them that that is not the way to go. If they try to squeeze everything out of the A330- and A320 fuselage, they will end in the same situation. IMHO.
If the A330NEO is a true alternative to the B787, then it also has to provide similar comfort to the PAX, and from what I read, a 9 abreast A330 is worse than a 9 abreast B787 (I admit I never flew either configured plane). And why should airlines fly 8 abreast A330NEO if most of them install 9 abreast on the B787, is the A330NEO still competitive then?


I've flown in Y on both.

787: frankly uncomfortable.
330: absolutely hideous.

From here in Oz it is hard to avoid AirAsiaX, as they have a great network, good schedule & cheap fares.
However just one experience of a longish night-flight was enough for me forever.
Now I will go as long as:
- it is a short flight.
- day only.

cheers
Billy
 
RJMAZ
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Re: AIRBUS 2020-2030 development projects A360, A370 opportunities.

Sun May 06, 2018 8:47 am

brindabella wrote:
I've flown in Y on both.

787: frankly uncomfortable.
330: absolutely hideous.

From here in Oz it is hard to avoid AirAsiaX, as they have a great network, good schedule & cheap fares.
However just one experience of a longish night-flight was enough for me forever.
Now I will go as long as:
- it is a short flight.
- day only.

cheers

This actually shows the weakness of the A330 cross section for long haul. At 9ab the A330NEO is capable of very long flights making the small seats very uncomfortable. At 8ab it's economics aren't good enough to be competitive.

However a short haul widebody based on the A330 cross section would bring out the strengths of the cross section. It is low drag and low weight with a very tight 9ab. The 9ab would be broadly acceptable by most airlines providing it was restricted to narrowbody length flights. Less than 5% of A330CEO customers fitted them with 9ab. This has increased to around 35% for the A330NEO. I'd be confident that an A300 sized aircraft would have the vast majority of the aircraft fitted with 9ab.
 
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N14AZ
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Re: AIRBUS 2020-2030 development projects A360, A370 opportunities.

Sun May 06, 2018 9:40 am

I am not sure if this has been posted somewhere else or further above but Airbus published a picture of their on-going project of constructing the new Airbus Wing Integration Centre, which will house "next generation" aircraft wings for structural testing. The vertical structure has the nickname "the wall"...

Image
 
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Revelation
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Re: AIRBUS 2020-2030 development projects A360, A370 opportunities.

Sun May 06, 2018 11:56 am

keesje wrote:
Hi Newbiepilot.

That's the problem today, even something unidentified "two people familiar with the matter" are said to have said is good enough if it satisfies what a target group wants to hear. Those two people can literary be anybody, but if it quoted / linked twice it spreads like oil & even smart guys like you absorb. As we know digital media today is totally poisoned with it. Reality checks are out, money to be made.

So, you're still ignoring Airbus CCO Shulz's comments?

Inconvenient truths?

Ref: viewtopic.php?t=1391201&start=150#p20329917

Revelation wrote:
keesje wrote:
Airbus shelves A320neo-plus study

Amazing how an unconfirmed rumour from unnamed sources grows into a strategic shift in a day.

Welcome to 2018’s copy, source and next news culture.

Reply #78 gives us a source named Airbus Chief Commercial Officer Eric Schulz.

“We cannot fix everything at the same time,” Airbus chief commercial officer Eric Schulz said, referring to the in-service issues, the possible production rate increases and potential product development. Airbus’ management has come to the conclusion that “we need to deliver what we committed to first” before moving on to an A320neo family upgrade.

Welcome to 2018 where everyone cries 'fake news' the instant they hear something that doesn't fit their own personal narrative.

It's pretty clear that some of the sources various people here love to hate (Leeham/Hamilton, Bloomberg, Reuters) have had a remarkably good run of form lately when it comes to breaking news. Sure, some small aspect of their report might be off, but in general the main story has been right.
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Wake now, discover that you are the song that the morning brings
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TasosANG
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Re: AIRBUS 2020-2030 development projects A360, A370 opportunities.

Sun May 06, 2018 12:31 pm

Geoff1947 wrote:
Does this gap exist as far as sales of planes are concerned ? The failure of the 787-3, the demise of the 787-8 and the fate of the A330-800 and the A350-800 suggests it doesn’t. Boeing are trying to make a case fo the NMA because they can’t compete with the A321. If Boeing succeed Airbus will need to respond.
An all new A320 replacement might get launched in this period.

Geoff

Yes you are correct, looks like the widebody are not preferred for this role. The gap is there but all the planes that mentioned above looks like that are not preferred for some reason.
Boeing need to go faster. The 737 is very old frame and has reach his limits.
Airbus then as you said, need to answer immediately.
My question is what they will try. A direct replacement of the 737/320 and then try to push it up to the limits? Or something that will be build from the beginning as a direct 757 replacement, which can easily go down until 319/737-700 category.
In theory one airplane family that can cover a huge variety of demands is perfect but can really built something which will be effective everywhere? And need to be because A. They will need to replace very effective models,B. The competition will be enormous.
May be will be more safe to split? And I mean for Airbus ( also can apply for Boeing to) a new 360 to start from an E170 catergory up to 319 a new A370 from 320 to low 330, both narrowbodies and later on a new390 as a 380 twin replacement that can compair to 777X and go further to 380 capacity.
:P
 
Eyad89
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Re: AIRBUS 2020-2030 development projects A360, A370 opportunities.

Sun May 06, 2018 12:41 pm

RJMAZ wrote:
Eyad89 wrote:
Well, other frames do not use 100% of their cabin areas either. How did you get the 545 figure?

Other frames don't need stairs at either end of the aircraft taking up space on both decks.

How did you get your 580m2 figure?

There has been so many discussions on the A380-850/900 models and not once have I seen an area figure that high for the 800.

Even a simple staircase That is 1m wide with a steep incline will loose 5m2 of floor space on each deck. So that is 20m2 of area lost with two stairs.

A twin deck aircraft should have more cabin area for its empty weight as it packages so nicely with all of the upper crown space being used. I'm sure you were totally surprised just how much the 787-10 smashes the A380.




I saw a few sources online, and they all were around the same figure of 580m^2. One of them you can find in this link: http://www.aircharterservice.cd/aircraf ... airbusa380

Their figures would give a total cabin area of 595m2, but as a wild guess, it would drop a bit due to the stairs of course

another one was calculated by ferpe to be 580m2, this is in the link provided earlier in the thread: viewtopic.php?t=769733

A third one can be found in the A380 wiki page, and it gives you a cabin area of 585m2, I know it's wiki, but it seems consistent with other areas I have found.
 
RJMAZ
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Re: AIRBUS 2020-2030 development projects A360, A370 opportunities.

Sun May 06, 2018 2:11 pm

Eyad89 wrote:
I saw a few sources online, and they all were around the same figure of 580m^2. One of them you can find in this link: http://www.aircharterservice.cd/aircraf ... airbusa380

Their figures would give a total cabin area of 595m2, but as a wild guess, it would drop a bit due to the stairs of course

another one was calculated by ferpe to be 580m2, this is in the link provided earlier in the thread: viewtopic.php?t=769733

A third one can be found in the A380 wiki page, and it gives you a cabin area of 585m2, I know it's wiki, but it seems consistent with other areas I have found.

Ok. So the first link doesn't say the area. You didn't even calculate the area properly.

The second link is some random member of a forum.

Wikipedia page has no reference to 585m2. I typed A380 585 Wikipedia into Google and got no hits. The Wikipedia page does have 550m2. That's getting closer and that still doesn't include the stairs.

The A380 is completely unique in that the upper deck has a foot closest to the sidewall that is completely unusable due to it curving inwards. It would be unfair to include this area. I could also include ceiling crew rests in the 777 as cabin area, as the A380 has to put crew rests in the cabin.

The A380 wouldn't even be in the top 20 for empty weight per cabin area.
 
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keesje
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Re: AIRBUS 2020-2030 development projects A360, A370 opportunities.

Sun May 06, 2018 10:16 pm

RJMAZ wrote:
The A380 is completely unique in that the upper deck has a foot closest to the sidewall that is completely unusable due to it curving inwards. It would be unfair to include this area. I could also include ceiling crew rests in the 777 as cabin area, as the A380 has to put crew rests in the cabin.


I'm not into anything "fair" or "unfair"but regarding upperdeck space, some people prefer to measure width at shoulder height instead of floor width. Personally I sympathize, for me it's most the shoulders rubbing. No seat widening by narrowing armrest and/or aisle make any difference here (I saw your trick BA..).

It is why I prefer e.g. A380 window seats. Wide seats & on the upperdeck you get the extra private stowage http://gamersband.club/wp-content/uploads/2018/05/a380-upper-deck-the-side-compartments-are-a-big-plus-factor-for-choosing-the-upper-deck-window-seat-if-you-get-the-chance-air-france-airbus-a380-upper-deck-economy.jpg)

On main deck it gives "unfair" extra space at shoulder. That should be included too, much bigger than floor space. Took this pick my self last year.
https://farm5.staticflickr.com/4230/34915200523_212836e43d_c.jpg

Maybe maindeck extra space compensates less space upperdeck?
"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway
 
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Matt6461
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Re: AIRBUS 2020-2030 development projects A360, A370 opportunities.

Sun May 06, 2018 10:40 pm

RJMAZ wrote:
Eyad89 wrote:
I saw a few sources online, and they all were around the same figure of 580m^2. One of them you can find in this link: http://www.aircharterservice.cd/aircraf ... airbusa380

Their figures would give a total cabin area of 595m2, but as a wild guess, it would drop a bit due to the stairs of course

another one was calculated by ferpe to be 580m2, this is in the link provided earlier in the thread: viewtopic.php?t=769733

A third one can be found in the A380 wiki page, and it gives you a cabin area of 585m2, I know it's wiki, but it seems consistent with other areas I have found.

Ok. So the first link doesn't say the area. You didn't even calculate the area properly.

The second link is some random member of a forum.

Wikipedia page has no reference to 585m2. I typed A380 585 Wikipedia into Google and got no hits. The Wikipedia page does have 550m2. That's getting closer and that still doesn't include the stairs.

The A380 is completely unique in that the upper deck has a foot closest to the sidewall that is completely unusable due to it curving inwards. It would be unfair to include this area. I could also include ceiling crew rests in the 777 as cabin area, as the A380 has to put crew rests in the cabin.

The A380 wouldn't even be in the top 20 for empty weight per cabin area.


@eyad the Wikipeda article says 550m2 and cites to **AIRBUS** for that metric. Just follow the citation!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
545m2 is what LeehamNews specifies in its A380 analysis.
 
ThomasCook
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Re: AIRBUS 2020-2030 development projects A360, A370 opportunities.

Sun May 06, 2018 11:07 pm

RJMAZ wrote:
Eyad89 wrote:
I saw a few sources online, and they all were around the same figure of 580m^2. One of them you can find in this link: http://www.aircharterservice.cd/aircraf ... airbusa380

Their figures would give a total cabin area of 595m2, but as a wild guess, it would drop a bit due to the stairs of course

another one was calculated by ferpe to be 580m2, this is in the link provided earlier in the thread: viewtopic.php?t=769733

A third one can be found in the A380 wiki page, and it gives you a cabin area of 585m2, I know it's wiki, but it seems consistent with other areas I have found.

Ok. So the first link doesn't say the area. You didn't even calculate the area properly.

The second link is some random member of a forum.

Wikipedia page has no reference to 585m2. I typed A380 585 Wikipedia into Google and got no hits. The Wikipedia page does have 550m2. That's getting closer and that still doesn't include the stairs.

The A380 is completely unique in that the upper deck has a foot closest to the sidewall that is completely unusable due to it curving inwards. It would be unfair to include this area. I could also include ceiling crew rests in the 777 as cabin area, as the A380 has to put crew rests in the cabin.

The A380 wouldn't even be in the top 20 for empty weight per cabin area.


Actually, if you did some research you’d be aware that most A380 operators use an LDCRC compartment (lower deck) and not a module in main deck cabin as Emirates use on theirs. However on newer deliveries, Emirates has also switched to LDCRC. Not all EK A380s have a CRC either - less than half.

Also, note that the 747 has the side compartments on its upper deck as well. However when Qantas refurbishes it’s A380s next year with Airbus as part of its new CabinFlex program, the side compartments will be removed and doors U3 deactivated.

ThomasCook
 
Eyad89
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Re: AIRBUS 2020-2030 development projects A360, A370 opportunities.

Mon May 07, 2018 8:58 am

RJMAZ wrote:
Ok. So the first link doesn't say the area. You didn't even calculate the area properly.



I calculated the area by simply multiplying the cabin length by the cabin width. Sure, not all area is usable for seating as I pointed, but isn't cabin area for other frames calculated the same way?

RJMAZ wrote:
The second link is some random member of a forum.


Sure, it's from a member of a forum, it's not a fact, but it comes from the member Ferpe. In my opinion, he's one of the most knowledgeable members when it comes to the technical side of aviation, especially aerodynamics. You should check out his thread of wing design philosophy. That doesn't mean he can't be wrong though in calculating the cabin area.

RJMAZ wrote:
Wikipedia page has no reference to 585m2. I typed A380 585 Wikipedia into Google and got no hits. The Wikipedia page does have 550m2. That's getting closer and that still doesn't include the stairs .


Wikipedia gives you the cabin length and width for each deck in the specification table at the bottom of the page, so I calculated it from there, and I got 595. You are right, there' s a 550m2 figure there, but it says it is the usable cabin area, not all of cabin area, which I calculated to be 595 very simply by multiplying length by width. You will say that's wrong, but at least this is how other frames are calculated too (at least this how I see it), so I guess we should use a common method for all frames.

RJMAZ wrote:
The A380 is completely unique in that the upper deck has a foot closest to the sidewall that is completely unusable due to it curving inwards. It would be unfair to include this area. I could also include ceiling crew rests in the 777 as cabin area, as the A380 has to put crew rests in the cabin .


But it also has a bar area that isn't considered when calculating the usable cabin area, while in fact you can easily fill 4 rows in that area. Granted, it's not an apple to apple comparison due to its unique design.

RJMAZ wrote:
The A380 wouldn't even be in the top 20 for empty weight per cabin area.


Not even top 20? Come on RJMAZ, that’s a bit too much :D I know it's fat and some folks think it ain't pretty, but it still got a great CASM for a wide body. If you look at A380plus, it's got the one of the best CASM for any widebody, so its cabin area over weight can't be that bad.

I know you are good at such calculations. Please show how you get a proper cabin area for A380 and 787-10, let's see how it goes.
 
RJMAZ
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Re: AIRBUS 2020-2030 development projects A360, A370 opportunities.

Mon May 07, 2018 9:56 am

Eyad89 wrote:
Not even top 20? Come on RJMAZ, that’s a bit too much :D I know it's fat and some folks think it ain't pretty, but it still got a great CASM for a wide body. If you look at A380plus, it's got the one of the best CASM for any widebody, so its cabin area over weight can't be that bad.

I know you are good at such calculations. Please show how you get a proper cabin area for A380 and 787-10, let's see how it goes.

I actually put the A380 around 500m2 for usable cabin area. That is for space where seats can be fitted. Quite a few members have used 478m2 but that I believe includes the grand staircase.

If you use a cabin area below 500m2 for the A380 it ends up having a higher weight per cabin area than all 787, 767, A330, 777 and A350 models.

You must remember that a higher weight per cabin area doesn't mean the aircraft is bad. An aircraft with longer range will nearly always weigh more for any given cabin area. The A380 is an ULH aircraft so a bad score is expected. The 787-10 has very short range by comparison which is why it scores well in that measurement. The A300 has the lowest weight per cabin area of any widebody and it also happens to have the shortest range. The 787-10 is second best.
 
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keesje
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Re: AIRBUS 2020-2030 development projects A360, A370 opportunities.

Mon May 07, 2018 11:02 am

.
A380 cabin density ? 11 breast, 4 class, get out the bars / showers / lounges / main deck crew rests / grant staircases & pick it up from there..

Image
https://runwaygirlnetwork.com/2015/06/03/airbus-expects-11-abreast-a380-to-attract-new-breed-of-customer/

Still better than 787 at 9 abreast / 777 at 10 abreast. https://thepointsguy.com/2015/11/emirates-615-seat-a380/

I'm afraid this will be the future for A380's.. :worried:
"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway
 
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Matt6461
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Re: AIRBUS 2020-2030 development projects A360, A370 opportunities.

Mon May 07, 2018 12:23 pm

Eyad89 wrote:
I calculated the area by simply multiplying the cabin length by the cabin width. Sure, not all area is usable for seating as I pointed, but isn't cabin area for other frames calculated the same way?


No, that's obviously not the way to calculate cabin area. Fuselage aren't rectangles, for instance.
No other frame is calculated this way.
Did you see that Airbus says 550M2? https://web.archive.org/web/20161010184 ... %5D=109179

To make this apples-apples we have to use a common metric.
If you use a rectangular approximation for all frames, then low-fineness planes like A380 and 788 will look better than they are.
RJMAZ is attempting to calculating a more specific measure of usable floor space that excludes things like exit rows and minimum regulatory aisle space - I'm guessing that's how he gets to 478m2.
 
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terrificturk
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Re: AIRBUS 2020-2030 development projects A360, A370 opportunities.

Mon May 07, 2018 1:01 pm

Newbiepilot wrote:
Image



IIRC the tailcone is entirely made in Oberpfaffenhofen incl. the pressure bulkhead. The flaps were also made there until they were handed to Bremen for higher frequency, but I have heard they will return to OBF again for their higher quality standards....

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