flymco753 wrote:

Spirit is going to continue growing Detroit while growing other stations as well. I see them flying 40 daily flights by 2022 with adds to PHX, BDL, EWR, PBI domestically and MBJ, PUJ internationally. That alone doesn't include new stations that would most likely get a flight like BNA, AUS/SAT, JAX, RDU, etc. Spirit isn't going anywhere, they're going to keep expanding and rapidly, we're talking probably 3-5 routes a year.

Delta OTOH, like I posted above, will probably only add DTW-SJC by 2020, most growth will probably be done with JV carriers, so DL could end MEX and gi e them both to AM as would MTY while adding BJX or QRO, maybe both. DL will probably ditch YVR and give it to WS, while WS adds YYC and some Encore routes, which would probably take over some DL flying to current Canadian cities. DL could end GRU, in turn Azul could do VCP or LATAM to GRU 2x a week. DL probably won't add a 2nd ICN flight it'd be KE. DL would add HKG and that's it for Asia. DL won't add ANC nor HNL ever. Maybe, maybe they'll do DUB only if WOW is drowning in money or EI does it (which at this point is likely). Give it time, VS will be back but take over DL's LHR flight and make it once daily. I see AF taking over one of the 2 DL CDG flights, so AF would go 2x and DL 1x. If LH adds MUC, DL's MUC will suffer, ends the route. I could also see a lot of CRJ routes leaving; HSV, LIT, TUL, SAV, and other destinations that are only served once daily on CRJ's from DTW. This is my worst case scenario, I'm not saying this is all going to happen, I'm saying this is a scenario that DL could pull if they wanted to scale DTW down.

I doubt DL will shrink that much at DTW, they upgauged a bunch of flights, as I read in this thread, for the summer, and they seem to be recommitting to DTW (and CVG) and the broader Midwest this year.
DTW does have to compete with/share east-west traffic flows with MSP on DL, but it seems like DTW is better positioned for most connections. MSP is father north, and serves a purpose, but DTW seems to have more growth opportunities in the long term.
DTW-ANC would seem likely as they cut ATL from a 763 to a 757 for Summer 2018, but additional MSP/SEA/ATL frequencies might come first before new routes. If they started it, I would expect weekend/;less than daily to start. How about DTW-GDL, MKE has it on Y4?
I expect more and more mainline service to reach DTW, the 717 seems to be moving in more on IND-DTW, for example.

SumChristianus wrote:

flymco753 wrote:

Spirit is going to continue growing Detroit while growing other stations as well. I see them flying 40 daily flights by 2022 with adds to PHX, BDL, EWR, PBI domestically and MBJ, PUJ internationally. That alone doesn't include new stations that would most likely get a flight like BNA, AUS/SAT, JAX, RDU, etc. Spirit isn't going anywhere, they're going to keep expanding and rapidly, we're talking probably 3-5 routes a year.

Delta OTOH, like I posted above, will probably only add DTW-SJC by 2020, most growth will probably be done with JV carriers, so DL could end MEX and gi e them both to AM as would MTY while adding BJX or QRO, maybe both. DL will probably ditch YVR and give it to WS, while WS adds YYC and some Encore routes, which would probably take over some DL flying to current Canadian cities. DL could end GRU, in turn Azul could do VCP or LATAM to GRU 2x a week. DL probably won't add a 2nd ICN flight it'd be KE. DL would add HKG and that's it for Asia. DL won't add ANC nor HNL ever. Maybe, maybe they'll do DUB only if WOW is drowning in money or EI does it (which at this point is likely). Give it time, VS will be back but take over DL's LHR flight and make it once daily. I see AF taking over one of the 2 DL CDG flights, so AF would go 2x and DL 1x. If LH adds MUC, DL's MUC will suffer, ends the route. I could also see a lot of CRJ routes leaving; HSV, LIT, TUL, SAV, and other destinations that are only served once daily on CRJ's from DTW. This is my worst case scenario, I'm not saying this is all going to happen, I'm saying this is a scenario that DL could pull if they wanted to scale DTW down.

I doubt DL will shrink that much at DTW, they upgauged a bunch of flights, as I read in this thread, for the summer, and they seem to be recommitting to DTW (and CVG) and the broader Midwest this year.
DTW does have to compete with/share east-west traffic flows with MSP on DL, but it seems like DTW is better positioned for most connections. MSP is father north, and serves a purpose, but DTW seems to have more growth opportunities in the long term.
DTW-ANC would seem likely as they cut ATL from a 763 to a 757 for Summer 2018, but additional MSP/SEA/ATL frequencies might come first before new routes. If they started it, I would expect weekend/;less than daily to start. How about DTW-GDL, MKE has it on Y4?
I expect more and more mainline service to reach DTW, the 717 seems to be moving in more on IND-DTW, for example.

That was my worst case scenario. I actually disagree, I don't see DTW-ANC ever being a possibility because SEA, LAX, SLC, MSP, and ATL all come before DTW for that route. There's simply not enough connections to fly it out of DTW that MSP or ATL doesn't have and the PDEW is nowhere near feasible. I do though, want to see YVR go daily in the summer first, it's a larger market than ANC and could be done with something at a lower CASM like the 320 or 73H as opposed to the 757 that'd have to be done on ANC.

I think the focus needs to stand on strengthening the West Coast and getting WestJet into Calgary. In my opinion, these are very important steps to strengthening the local market as well as the markets like San Jose and Calgary. My DL/DTW wish list for the immediate future is; SJC, SMF, ICT, and VPS domestically and that's all I see for Delta, if not less. YYC and YVR on Westjet.

PSU.DTW.SCE wrote:

Not to mention, the vast majority of Metro Detroit is insular, myopic, and backwards stuck in a different era.

Care to elaborate? The same could be said of suburbia in any area of the country, in my opinion.

The Ann Arbor to Detroit rail line is planned for 2022. It includes no stop at DTW, rather requiring a shuttle bus connection from the Wayne stop. This project seems unnecessary to me given the existence of the Michigan Flyer bus.

Last night two friends of mine came in from EWR and LAN and we went to a concert in downtown Detroit. When I sat down for a moment towards the end, a stranger walking past must have thought I looked glum, and high-fived and hugged me, unprompted. So the vibes of people in Detroit are actually pretty friendly.

DTW McNamara Terminal is also the best airport terminal in the country, in my opinion, not least because of its successful management of IRROPS and winter weather compared to say ATL, ORD, NYC. The only other terminal in the US that left me a particularly positive impression – DEN – is distant second place compared to the high ceilings, open spaces, flashing lights and nice fountain at DTW McNamara Terminal.

Ofcourse Detroit needs rail, and its simple because the tracks and the station, atleast on the Downtown end, already exist. Amtrak runs from Chicago, they turn after Dearborn and go to Royal Oak, but those tracks continue to Downtown. Gilbert wants to use the original Central Train Depot, all that's needed is 1 additional track along side the current track. Train service constantly from Ann arbor to the Airport and then Downtown via Dearborn. This is whats needed, and anyone who disagrees is well just in another world. We now have the chance to get Apple HQ2, build the da*n transit already.

As far as im concerned since Dan Gilbert is the only one getting things done, he should be Governor, get that useless Snyder out of there.

NWADTWE16 wrote:

Ofcourse Detroit needs rail, and its simple because the tracks and the station, atleast on the Downtown end, already exist. Amtrak runs from Chicago, they turn after Dearborn and go to Royal Oak, but those tracks continue to Downtown. Gilbert wants to use the original Central Train Depot, all that's needed is 1 additional track along side the current track. Train service constantly from Ann arbor to the Airport and then Downtown via Dearborn. This is whats needed, and anyone who disagrees is well just in another world. We now have the chance to get Apple HQ2, build the da*n transit already.

As far as im concerned since Dan Gilbert is the only one getting things done, he should be Governor, get that useless Snyder out of there.

Well with the driverless cars and what not, Google would be a good fit too. Apple wouldn’t be bad, a lot of Silicon companies will probably begin to invest heavily in Detroit because of the autonomous vehicle and fastly emerging tech industry.

and Dan GIlbert. That guy single handedly has accomplished the unthinkable in 10 years. His plans for the next 10 years are beyond ambitious and that exactly what Detroit needs. Ground is broken now on the largest residential tower ever to be built in the city on the former Hudsons site, I believe completion is 2019. I read curbeddetroit.com a lot and the info of this 1 single persons holdings and actual completed developments is second really only to Elon Musk and Richard Branson in my book.

But if somehow a train or light rail is built from Ann Arbor without a stop at DTW or atleast in the field by 94 with a proper connector to both terminals, well that would be the Detroit of the past and I like to hope we are past the past.

NWADTWE16 wrote:

But if somehow a train or light rail is built from Ann Arbor without a stop at DTW or atleast in the field by 94 with a proper connector to both terminals, well that would be the Detroit of the past and I like to hope we are past the past.

The idea of an Ann Arbor to Detroit rail line that does not stop at DTW seems painfully short sighted. The airport would likely be the busiest stop on the route.

I don't subscribe to this mass transit being a cheap alternative idea. Almost all systems are subsidized by local, state or federal governments. We don't have a dense urban core where parking is impossible. Most offices in downtown provide free parking to their employees. Even private parking structures and street parking lots are not gouging like other cities. I like the way urban farming reclaiming the City of Detroit.

dtw2hyd wrote:

Most offices in downtown provide free parking to their employees. Even private parking structures and street parking lots are not gouging like other cities.

There is no free parking within the extended downtown core, other than a limited amount of street parking (often in sketchy areas) — consistent with pretty much every major city in the country. Empoyers typically pay for parking, just as they do elsewhere.

And define gouging — I’d consider the $20-$40 day and event rates typically charged to be gouging, given the value of land. And prices are rising — even city-owned lots are up to $15+, when they were just $5 until a few years ago. Maybe a bargain to those in NYC, but a rip off for a non-patrolled lot I Detroit .

rangercarp wrote:

NWADTWE16 wrote:

But if somehow a train or light rail is built from Ann Arbor without a stop at DTW or atleast in the field by 94 with a proper connector to both terminals, well that would be the Detroit of the past and I like to hope we are past the past.

The idea of an Ann Arbor to Detroit rail line that does not stop at DTW seems painfully short sighted. The airport would likely be the busiest stop on the route.

The challenge is that the rail line between Ann Arbor and Detroit is not the one that runs along I-94 by the airport, but rather a separate rail line 5 miles to the north. This means at its closest point, the rail line is 6 miles away from North Terminal and 7 miles away from the Mac Terminal.

So the options are
1) build a (expensive) rail spur from this line down to the DTW terminals, and disrupt the Ann Arbor to Detroit passengers by making them go 14 miles round trip out of their way.

2) build a station on the AA-Detroit railroad at the closest point, and bus shuttle passengers up there.

The other issue with #2 is that doing a long bus shuttle ride, then waiting on a train platform a while in Michigan weather (which is not good for a good portion of the year) is not going to be very appealing. And even ignoring that, you would be 1) taking a bus to the train platform, 2) waiting a while for an infrequent train to take you to MCS or the New Center Station which is not likely convenient to where you are ultimately heading downtown, thus 3) you have to take the Q line or Uber to your hotel or destination from the station.

Anyway, long story short is that a passenger would have to double connect, which is confusing to out of towners and then spend a ton of time doing it. Which means people wouldn’t do it and still pay $60 for a MetroCab ride because the train is way too inconvenient.

I wish there was an easy solution to get transit to DTW, but logistics make it very hard.

NWADTWE16 wrote:

Ofcourse Detroit needs rail, and its simple because the tracks and the station, atleast on the Downtown end, already exist. Amtrak runs from Chicago, they turn after Dearborn and go to Royal Oak, but those tracks continue to Downtown. Gilbert wants to use the original Central Train Depot, all that's needed is 1 additional track along side the current track. Train service constantly from Ann arbor to the Airport and then Downtown via Dearborn. This is whats needed, and anyone who disagrees is well just in another world. We now have the chance to get Apple HQ2, build the da*n transit already.

As far as im concerned since Dan Gilbert is the only one getting things done, he should be Governor, get that useless Snyder out of there.

Are you referring the old derelict Detroit train station that Amtrak couldn't wait to move out of? I know Detroit is recovering but that neighborhood hasn't.

william wrote:

NWADTWE16 wrote:

Ofcourse Detroit needs rail, and its simple because the tracks and the station, atleast on the Downtown end, already exist. Amtrak runs from Chicago, they turn after Dearborn and go to Royal Oak, but those tracks continue to Downtown. Gilbert wants to use the original Central Train Depot, all that's needed is 1 additional track along side the current track. Train service constantly from Ann arbor to the Airport and then Downtown via Dearborn. This is whats needed, and anyone who disagrees is well just in another world. We now have the chance to get Apple HQ2, build the da*n transit already.

As far as im concerned since Dan Gilbert is the only one getting things done, he should be Governor, get that useless Snyder out of there.

Are you referring the old derelict Detroit train station that Amtrak couldn't wait to move out of? I know Detroit is recovering but that neighborhood hasn't.

Even in its heyday, that station was still not close to the Detroit downtown/central business area. The station's out of the way location was chosen because of its proximity to the rail tunnel to Canada, as routing passengers to and from Canada was the big money maker back in the day. All things considered, MCS still may be the best choice for a Detroit terminal station... as re-building a rail spur with a downtown station would probably be cost prohibitive in this day and age. (For history lovers, the original Detroit downtown rail station was located where Wayne Community College is today, a block north of Cobo. The old rail spur ran from that downtown station under the now former Joe Louis Arena parking garage, and then along the river from there to MCS).

They could link the people mover quite easily from near the Westin around past the Casinos and down Michigan Ave to the Train station. That would solve the connections to Downtown as the people mover truly is a great thing and runs the circle route needed. There is already light rail from Rosa Parks station up Woodward.

Sadly it all has to be pieced together but hey that's what 60 years of ignoring it will get ya. It has to be done though.

Can we get any visuals on those tracks, because I am still certain the tracks Amtrak uses, as well as the freight trains that run right past the airport runways do go downtown. Perhaps the issue is the industrial section near the Rouge plant? Theres land there to take over and route it around. JUst kick everyone out of Melvindale, lord knows we'd be doing them a life long favor.

NWADTWE16 wrote:

They could link the people mover quite easily from near the Westin around past the Casinos and down Michigan Ave to the Train station. That would solve the connections to Downtown as the people mover truly is a great thing and runs the circle route needed. There is already light rail from Rosa Parks station up Woodward.

Sadly it all has to be pieced together but hey that's what 60 years of ignoring it will get ya. It has to be done though.

Can we get any visuals on those tracks, because I am still certain the tracks Amtrak uses, as well as the freight trains that run right past the airport runways do go downtown. Perhaps the issue is the industrial section near the Rouge plant? Theres land there to take over and route it around. JUst kick everyone out of Melvindale, lord knows we'd be doing them a life long favor.

As I mentioned in the previous post, the tracks Amtrak uses are the ones 6 to 7 miles north of the terminal (roughly just south of US-12 if you look on a map), and this track is owned by Michigan DOT. The other tracks that run next to the DTW airport on the north (just south of I-94) are owned by Canadian National Freight (CN). Both CN and MDOT tracks do end up downtown at MCS, but to the west the CN tracks go southward and miss Ann Arbor. The CN line is at capacity with 100% freight traffic, and as such CN would obviously not want to give up any "space" on their line for low yielding commuter rail in place of big time freight revenue. Also, given the congestion on that CN track with freight trains, commuter lines probably wouldn't want to use it either even if they could.

This is why any rail connection proposed to DTW uses the MDOT tracks to the north. But as mentioned in my previous post, the MDOT tracks to the north are 6 to 7 miles from DTW which creates other obvious issues.

your totally right, I got directionally challenged, those tracks run near Michigan Avenue, do they meet up out west before Ann Arbor? Maybe they add tracks and run them around south of the airport, easier to connect to the McNamara. There has to be something because a bus to the train will work worse than FLL does, and no one uses the train at FLL because of the bus.

NWADTWE16 wrote:

your totally right, I got directionally challenged, those tracks run near Michigan Avenue, do they meet up out west before Ann Arbor? Maybe they add tracks and run them around south of the airport, easier to connect to the McNamara. There has to be something because a bus to the train will work worse than FLL does, and no one uses the train at FLL because of the bus.

Unfortunately they do not, so there is no easy way to "move" passenger rail to that CN corridor. Basically, if you are going with rail, they would need to build a 7 mile spur that roughly parallels Merriman Road and use it to connect the terminals to the MDOT owned rail line. Building this 7 mile spur would be expensive, mainly because it would involve Eminent Domain to acquire property, and it would also involve bridging (or tunneling under) I-94 to get to the terminal. Not cheap, but still probably the least expensive option that is fully rail.

Otherwise you are busing passengers between the terminals and the station 7 miles to the north, which we all pretty much agree is a losing effort.

kavok wrote:

NWADTWE16 wrote:

... Building this 7 mile spur would be expensive, mainly because it would involve Eminent Domain to acquire property, and it would also involve bridging (or tunneling under) I-94 to get to the terminal. Not cheap, but still probably the least expensive option that is fully rail.

Otherwise you are busing passengers between the terminals and the station 7 miles to the north, which we all pretty much agree is a losing effort.

If using the closer tracks is not an option, and adding another parallel track on the same right-of-way is out of the question, then a connector is necessary. I fully agree that buses are out of the question. I would love to see a security check point at the rail station, so that when you get on the connector train you are already inside security. That could make the rail line even more attractive.

dtw2hyd wrote:

I don't subscribe to this mass transit being a cheap alternative idea. Almost all systems are subsidized by local, state or federal governments.

Most all forms of transportation are subsidized by our tax dollars. This very much includes the highways that we use for non-mass transit...

NWADTWE16 wrote:

They could link the people mover quite easily from near the Westin around past the Casinos and down Michigan Ave to the Train station. That would solve the connections to Downtown as the people mover truly is a great thing and runs the circle route needed. There is already light rail from Rosa Parks station up Woodward.

I don't think you'll ever see the People Mover expanded from its current footprint. However, expanding the Q Line down Michigan Ave. between Campus Martius and Michigan Central Train Depot, should they choose to reopen it, would not be too challenging.

There's a lot of notable upgrades that I want to point out for May 2018, DL specific;
-GSP will get an A319 on the 9pm flight, the other 2 flights will be CRJ's but there's still a net increase in seats going to GSP. It's also a growing market, so it makes sense for there to be a mainline option on the route, so it's benefitting not only business travelers but O&D passengers on both ends.
-PWM will see a 717 again on the 10pm flight, it's good to see mainline coming back on PWM, it's not a light market so I was literally waiting for it to come back. Another increase in seats.
-JFK will see an A319 on the 3:30pm flight. The route is currently 2x CR9 and 1x 717, in May it'll be 2x CR9, 1x 717 and 1x A319, another increase in seats as well as frequency. The summer has 2x CR9, 1x 717 and 2x 319 planned as of now. Presumably anticipated for B6's entrance.
-GRB will get a 717 on the 3:30pm flight, so it'll be an increase in seats from the previous 3x CRJ/CR7.
-Other markets which have seen regular CRJ service will see increased 2-class service, notably HPN which will go to 3x CR9 over the 3x CRJ it was. GSO will even have a CR9 in the rotation, an all CRJ route.

What's next? Natural increases, I see 717's and A319's going to BHM, CHS, OKC, OMA and ORF regularly. Still waiting to see if DL is going to add SJC, I'll be kind of salty if they don't, I'll give it 2 more weeks until it's something to look forward to in 2019.

Thanks for pointing these out, but most are fairly routine. Markets like GRB regularly see mainline -- it's not uncommon for DL to schedule 2x717, 319 one period and 5xCR9 the next. With the continued reduction in 50-seat flying, mainline will become more commonplace in these markets.

The 319 to GSP is interesting but more likely a product of scheduling rather than need. Over the past few years, DL's made cameo (re: never happened again) mainline appearances on the late departure bank to most cities within DTW's network.

If DL doesn't add SJC on the next OAG (4 FEB) then it's off the shelf for 2018, which means DL will have 0 new destinations for DTW this year, same can be said about a few other hubs though so I wouldn't be upset. Also got the 3rd CDG flight which is bigger than any domestic add and LHR getting the A330 and AMS getting the A350, MUC going all the way until November this year, that's pretty huge in itself.

Unfortunately I don't think DL is going to do DUB unless someone else does it first so that they can attempt to drive them out, likely to be EI but I don't see DL pushing them out. I'm also sure DL is watching KEF closely, because if O&D is going to grow over half than years past in 2018, they might add it for 2019.

Interesting to see that the Air France flight to CDG is now showing as a 787-9. Is this now etched in stone or not?

dtw9 wrote:

Interesting to see that the Air France flight to CDG is now showing as a 787-9. Is this now etched in stone or not?

What days? It still says 777-200, that’s what the station is preparing for.

When I looked in June on my desktop it showed three non-stops. One 767 one A 330 and the Air France flight being a 787-9. When I pull it up on my I- phone it shows a 772

No you’re right, starts in March but ends at the end of June.

flymco753 wrote:

If DL doesn't add SJC on the next OAG (4 FEB) then it's off the shelf for 2018, which means DL will have 0 new destinations for DTW this year, same can be said about a few other hubs though so I wouldn't be upset.

DTW-SJC is 2,063 miles. Could AS make this work on a E175 with a range of just over 2,500mi? They have been growing in SJC lately, and it's a route that wouldn't have competition.

rajincajun01 wrote:

flymco753 wrote:

If DL doesn't add SJC on the next OAG (4 FEB) then it's off the shelf for 2018, which means DL will have 0 new destinations for DTW this year, same can be said about a few other hubs though so I wouldn't be upset.

DTW-SJC is 2,063 miles. Could AS make this work on a E175 with a range of just over 2,500mi? They have been growing in SJC lately, and it's a route that wouldn't have competition.

I’m sure AS would do it but they know that if they add it, DL most likely would too in response. I think right now it’s in the “we’ll get around to it” phase, they look at it but aren’t serious about it. That would change it to an urgent add if AS did it, and I would hate to see AS lose on it.

WOW AIR CELEBRATES DETROIT METROPOLITAN AIRPORT PARTNERSHIP WITH FARE SALES
WOW air announces $99 and $149 flight deals from DTW
DETROIT (January 23, 2018) — Following a year of amazing passenger growth, WOW air, Iceland’s lowcost
transatlantic airline, is excited to begin service from Detroit Metropolitan Airport (DTW) on April 25,
2018.
To celebrate, WOW air is offering $99* one-way flight sales from DTW to Iceland (KEF) and $149* oneway
fares to Amsterdam (AMS), Paris (CDG), Copenhagen (CPH), Dublin (DUB), Frankfurt (FRA), London
(LGW/STN) and Berlin (SFX). Service from DTW will be available four days per week: Mondays, Tuesdays,
Thursdays and Saturdays.
In addition to beginning service at DTW, WOW air will begin service this Spring from Cleveland Hopkins
International Airport (May 3), Cincinnati/Northern Kentucky International Airport (May 9), St. Louis
Lambert International Airport (May 17) and Dallas/Fort Worth International Airport (May 23).
The addition of these new airports will bring the airline’s total number of U.S. destinations to 13 since its
successful North American launch at Boston Logan International Airport (BOS) in March 2015.
“We are proud of our progress in North America and are honored to partner with Detroit Metropolitan
Airport to give more passengers in the Midwest low-fares to visit Europe,” said Skúli Mogensen, CEO and
Founder of WOW air.
"We are pleased WOW air will bring new visitors to see Detroit’s revitalization firsthand, thanks to the
airline’s low fares,” said Wayne County Airport Authority Air Service Development Director Joe
Cambron. “This partnership also means there are more ways for travelers to reach Europe, whether
they’re planning to explore Reykjavik, Iceland or connect to other great cities including Paris,
Amsterdam and Frankfurt. WOW is the first new international carrier for our North Terminal since it
opened in 2008.”
Bookings are now available at www.wowair.us.
WOW air Photography and b-roll are available for download here.
*Detroit (DTW) to Iceland (KEF), Amsterdam (AMS), Paris (CDG), Copenhagen (CPH), Dublin (DUB),
Frankfurt (FRA), London (LGW/STN) and Berlin (SFX) via Iceland. Based on lowest one-way WOW Basic
fare booked on www.wowair.us. Includes all taxes, fees and carrier charges. Available for travel
September to October 2018. The offer applies for 500 seats on selected flights, only when booked on a
return trip.

To get everyone excited!

Market Sizes DTT-EU vv.
Source: MIDT Data Jan-Nov 2017. DTT-EU (GVG) and EU-DTT (GVG) directional. I then pivoted the data and summed up the demand. Dec 2017 is not yet available.
**Note City Codes used and not Airport codes (LON = LHR, LGW, STN, LUT etc)

FRA 88307
LON 81543 (London)
PAR 52392 (Paris)
AMS 43942
ROM 37209 (Rome)
MUC 30680
BCN 17388
DUB 16989
STR 16232
MIL 12651 (Milan)
TIA 11853 (Tirana, Albania FYI)
TRN 11520

Very surprising to see TIA so high on this list. A very small and niche O&D.
If you combine MIL and TRN, the likelihood for a direct flight to MXP along with DUB are the next likely additions from DTW. For diversity and competition, I would hope that EI jumps onto DUB before DL can to gain market traction.

For the record, the largest market to/from Detroit in Europe is Germany. Almost half of all traffic to/from Europe is going/coming to/from Germany.

EI would have to be the first carrier to jump onto DUB, the way DL has been working in Detroit the last few years is a reactive approach instead of being proactive. I would guess DL and EI will both run the 75W at that point.

I'm surprised at BCN, that's the largest unserved market from Detroit to Europe yet DL doesn't think a 75W would work even with connections. I think the distance is pushing it too so if they wanted to do it, it'd have to be a 76W, there's not enough front paying pax for that.

Sorry for double posts but in March it appears all major Florida stations (FLL, RSW and TPA) other than MCO is getting A321's on Delta whether it's Saturday only or daily. MCO has a mix of everything, some days the A321, some days the 739, some days the M88 but mostly the 753/757/and A320. There's a good amount of seats going to Florida this winter, MCO has the most, RSW is a close second with TPA and FLL is fourth, but YoY all Florida markets have more seats other than SRQ, which needs to be fixed.

DL's actually cut peak winter capacity YOY into MCO, RSW and FLL (the latter even lost a flight); TPA & MIA will see very small increases. Additionally, they shrunk the duration of the peak winter schedule (which is not limited to DTW).

service through the years, select markets :

2000
MCO: D9S, 72S, 6x757, D10
TPA: D9S, 320, 72S, 4x757
FLL: 2x320, 3x72S
RSW: 5x757
MIA: 72S, 2x329

2008 (note: FL operated 2xMCO, TPA, FLL, RSW in 2008, leading NW to slash capacity into these markets)
MCO: 319, 320, 3x757, 2x753
TPA: 320, 5x757
FLL: 320, 4x757
RSW: 3x320, 2x757
MIA: 2x319, 320

2012
MCO: 3x757, 3x753
TPA: 3xM88, 320, 2x757
FLL: 320, 3x757, 2x753
RSW: 7x757
MIA: 2xM88, 320

2017
MCO: 757, 6x753
TPA: 4xM88, 757, 739
FLL: 4x739, 2x757
RSW: 2x757, 3x753
MIA: M88, 320

2018:
MCO: 320, 2x757, 3x753
TPA: 3xM8, 757, 2x739
FLL: 2x739, 2x321, 757
RSW: 320, 2x757, 2x753
MIA: M90, 738

Oh I am looking at a Saturday that's why there's so much Florida movement. DL doesn't need to fill their planes with connections when O&D is already filling them.

hjulicher wrote:

Market Sizes DTT-EU vv.
Source: MIDT Data Jan-Nov 2017. DTT-EU (GVG) and EU-DTT (GVG) directional. I then pivoted the data and summed up the demand. Dec 2017 is not yet available.
**Note City Codes used and not Airport codes (LON = LHR, LGW, STN, LUT etc)

FRA 88307
LON 81543 (London)
PAR 52392 (Paris)
AMS 43942
ROM 37209 (Rome)
MUC 30680
BCN 17388
DUB 16989
STR 16232
MIL 12651 (Milan)
TIA 11853 (Tirana, Albania FYI)
TRN 11520

Very surprising to see TIA so high on this list. A very small and niche O&D.
If you combine MIL and TRN, the likelihood for a direct flight to MXP along with DUB are the next likely additions from DTW. For diversity and competition, I would hope that EI jumps onto DUB before DL can to gain market traction.

For the record, the largest market to/from Detroit in Europe is Germany. Almost half of all traffic to/from Europe is going/coming to/from Germany.

Breaking that down into PDEW:

FRA: 133
LON: 122
PAR: 89
ROM: 56
MUC: 45
BCN: 26
DUB: 25
STR: 23
MIL: 19
TIA: 18
TRN: 17

Based on that, the only market that isnt served by DTW currently that really could support service is summer seasonal DUB on a 757. Unless DTW-MXP is packed with J travelers, its too small even with TRN.

Albanians are now Detroits fastest growing European group. Most of them are foreign born in the Detroit area. In contrast, the Polish community in Detroit has been there for generations and Detroit's Polish community is generations removed from the motherland. That also explains why DTW-TIA is larger than DTW-WAW.

LAXdude1023 wrote:

hjulicher wrote:

Market Sizes DTT-EU vv.
Source: MIDT Data Jan-Nov 2017. DTT-EU (GVG) and EU-DTT (GVG) directional. I then pivoted the data and summed up the demand. Dec 2017 is not yet available.
**Note City Codes used and not Airport codes (LON = LHR, LGW, STN, LUT etc)

FRA 88307
LON 81543 (London)
PAR 52392 (Paris)
AMS 43942
ROM 37209 (Rome)
MUC 30680
BCN 17388
DUB 16989
STR 16232
MIL 12651 (Milan)
TIA 11853 (Tirana, Albania FYI)
TRN 11520

Very surprising to see TIA so high on this list. A very small and niche O&D.
If you combine MIL and TRN, the likelihood for a direct flight to MXP along with DUB are the next likely additions from DTW. For diversity and competition, I would hope that EI jumps onto DUB before DL can to gain market traction.

For the record, the largest market to/from Detroit in Europe is Germany. Almost half of all traffic to/from Europe is going/coming to/from Germany.

Breaking that down into PDEW:

FRA: 133
LON: 122
PAR: 89
ROM: 56
MUC: 45
BCN: 26
DUB: 25
STR: 23
MIL: 19
TIA: 18
TRN: 17

Based on that, the only market that isnt served by DTW currently that really could support service is summer seasonal DUB on a 757. Unless DTW-MXP is packed with J travelers, its too small even with TRN.

Albanians are now Detroits fastest growing European group. Most of them are foreign born in the Detroit area. In contrast, the Polish community in Detroit has been there for generations and Detroit's Polish community is generations removed from the motherland. That also explains why DTW-TIA is larger than DTW-WAW.

I believe you forgot AMS if I’m not mistaken...

BenflysDTW wrote:

LAXdude1023 wrote:

hjulicher wrote:

Market Sizes DTT-EU vv.
Source: MIDT Data Jan-Nov 2017. DTT-EU (GVG) and EU-DTT (GVG) directional. I then pivoted the data and summed up the demand. Dec 2017 is not yet available.
**Note City Codes used and not Airport codes (LON = LHR, LGW, STN, LUT etc)

FRA 88307
LON 81543 (London)
PAR 52392 (Paris)
AMS 43942
ROM 37209 (Rome)
MUC 30680
BCN 17388
DUB 16989
STR 16232
MIL 12651 (Milan)
TIA 11853 (Tirana, Albania FYI)
TRN 11520

Very surprising to see TIA so high on this list. A very small and niche O&D.
If you combine MIL and TRN, the likelihood for a direct flight to MXP along with DUB are the next likely additions from DTW. For diversity and competition, I would hope that EI jumps onto DUB before DL can to gain market traction.

For the record, the largest market to/from Detroit in Europe is Germany. Almost half of all traffic to/from Europe is going/coming to/from Germany.

Breaking that down into PDEW:

FRA: 133
LON: 122
PAR: 89
ROM: 56
MUC: 45
BCN: 26
DUB: 25
STR: 23
MIL: 19
TIA: 18
TRN: 17

Based on that, the only market that isnt served by DTW currently that really could support service is summer seasonal DUB on a 757. Unless DTW-MXP is packed with J travelers, its too small even with TRN.

Albanians are now Detroits fastest growing European group. Most of them are foreign born in the Detroit area. In contrast, the Polish community in Detroit has been there for generations and Detroit's Polish community is generations removed from the motherland. That also explains why DTW-TIA is larger than DTW-WAW.

I believe you forgot AMS if I’m not mistaken...

Indeed I did. Its 66.

MXP may work as it would definitely stimulate O&D demand should a direct flight become available, and since most travelers to TRN and MIL are high yielding out of DTW due to the automotive industry, it is feasible that it could work.

Cities which have a strong hub on one side can make O&Ds work with >20000 O&D pax annually according to MIDT figures (*remember the above figures are just 11 months). And due to the large importance of Germany and it's decentralization of urban centers, LH MUC-DTW could also be a possibility.

There are also an accounted 500,000 PAX flying to-from DTT which MIDT cannot allocate. MIDT figures are only about 80% of the total market as the data doesn't capture all bookings.

If DTW-BCN wasnt so low yielding and had more front pax, I’m sure it would be nearing a start. If LEVEL had smaller planes like the A321LR OTOH, then we’re talking.

Edit: the A321LR can’t make it, it’s about 100 miles short. The 757 can make it though, DL could hypothetically do a 75W. Less front seats and lower CASM than a 76W.

hjulicher wrote:

MXP may work as it would definitely stimulate O&D demand should a direct flight become available, and since most travelers to TRN and MIL are high yielding out of DTW due to the automotive industry, it is feasible that it could work.

Cities which have a strong hub on one side can make O&Ds work with >20000 O&D pax annually according to MIDT figures (*remember the above figures are just 11 months). And due to the large importance of Germany and it's decentralization of urban centers, LH MUC-DTW could also be a possibility.

There are also an accounted 500,000 PAX flying to-from DTT which MIDT cannot allocate. MIDT figures are only about 80% of the total market as the data doesn't capture all bookings.

I remembered. Thats why I calculated the PDEW off of 11 months as opposed to 12 months.

I dont have the average fare data for DTW-MXP, so if indeed it is the case that its heavy in the J cabin, then it might work.

Without a corporate contract, I dont see LH starting MUC-DTW. They stick to major markets, Star Alliance hubs, and the only exception to that is CLT where BMW has a plant 75 miles south.

LAXdude1023 wrote:

hjulicher wrote:

MXP may work as it would definitely stimulate O&D demand should a direct flight become available, and since most travelers to TRN and MIL are high yielding out of DTW due to the automotive industry, it is feasible that it could work.

Cities which have a strong hub on one side can make O&Ds work with >20000 O&D pax annually according to MIDT figures (*remember the above figures are just 11 months). And due to the large importance of Germany and it's decentralization of urban centers, LH MUC-DTW could also be a possibility.

There are also an accounted 500,000 PAX flying to-from DTT which MIDT cannot allocate. MIDT figures are only about 80% of the total market as the data doesn't capture all bookings.

I remembered. Thats why I calculated the PDEW off of 11 months as opposed to 12 months.

I dont have the average fare data for DTW-MXP, so if indeed it is the case that its heavy in the J cabin, then it might work.

Without a corporate contract, I dont see LH starting MUC-DTW. They stick to major markets, Star Alliance hubs, and the only exception to that is CLT where BMW has a plant 75 miles south.

WW is offering connections to MXP, DUB and BCN, let’s see how this boasts the market.

Apologies for the double post, does anyone have the average LF on DTW-GRU/GRU-DTW? Flightaware Statistics is down and I don't currently have access to the BTS on this computer.

flymco753 wrote:

Apologies for the double post, does anyone have the average LF on DTW-GRU/GRU-DTW? Flightaware Statistics is down and I don't currently have access to the BTS on this computer.

GRU-DTW 2017 JAN-JULY
JAN-91.4%
FEB-74.9%
MAR-64.8%
APR-78.5%
MAY-76.7%
JUN-84.0%
JULY-89.9%
Total=80.1%

DTW-GRU 2017 JAN-JULY
JAN-79.7%
FEB-81.8%
MAR-73.5%
APR-57.3%
MAY-81.5%
JUN-83.3%
JULY-84.3%
Total=77.3%

Midwestindy wrote:

flymco753 wrote:

Apologies for the double post, does anyone have the average LF on DTW-GRU/GRU-DTW? Flightaware Statistics is down and I don't currently have access to the BTS on this computer.

GRU-DTW 2017 JAN-JULY
JAN-91.4%
FEB-74.9%
MAR-64.8%
APR-78.5%
MAY-76.7%
JUN-84.0%
JULY-89.9%
Total=80.1%

DTW-GRU 2017 JAN-JULY
JAN-79.7%
FEB-81.8%
MAR-73.5%
APR-57.3%
MAY-81.5%
JUN-83.3%
JULY-84.3%
Total=77.3%

Ok, so healthy. I suspect this route will become an A330-900 eventually and go back to daily. The Brazil-DTW is more VFR, DTW-Brazil is more auto than VFR, but there's still VFR. Someone a while back ago suggested the flight move to SEA but there's no market so I don't think DTW-GRU is going anywhere.

klm617 wrote:

william wrote:

Remember when SWA started service at a secondary Detroit airport? I forgot the name, Does it still have commercial service? Can imagine an airline like Allegiant setting up shop there.

It was called Detroit City Airport and later renamed the Colman A Young international airport and yes I agree DET would be a great place for Allegiant to set up service. At this point there is no service there.

For $83M DET can have commercial service again. It's one of the options in a study but not likely. It does have support from one councilman.

Study: $83M brings back City Airport passenger service
http://www.detroitnews.com/story/news/l ... 110062586/

FromGSPtoChi wrote:

klm617 wrote:

william wrote:

Remember when SWA started service at a secondary Detroit airport? I forgot the name, Does it still have commercial service? Can imagine an airline like Allegiant setting up shop there.

It was called Detroit City Airport and later renamed the Colman A Young international airport and yes I agree DET would be a great place for Allegiant to set up service. At this point there is no service there.

For $83M DET can have commercial service again. It's one of the options in a study but not likely. It does have support from one councilman.

Study: $83M brings back City Airport passenger service
http://www.detroitnews.com/story/news/l ... 110062586/

The reasons this plan should not and will not happen gave been discussed ad nauseam in this forum. Get back to me when the NIMBYs all fall off their roofs, DTW is boxed-in and beyond capacity, and 737s have STOL capabilities.

The airport is hemmed in by cemeteries.

What else is there to consider?

Statistics are out for 2017!
Let’s compare to 2016:
2016 pax number: 34.401.254
2017 pax number: 34.701.497
Easy math this time! So an overall increase of 300.243 passengers. For a percentage it comes out to be: +0.872%!

MUC starts on May 3rd this year, and is daily until sometime in October. Last returning flight is on November 12th. Does anyone know when the route ended last year? Seems like a big extension to me! I however will say that I don’t think it will ever be year round. March-November at Best. Only way for it to be year-round of course is for LH to settle in.

BenflysDTW wrote:

MUC starts on May 3rd this year, and is daily until sometime in October. Last returning flight is on November 12th. Does anyone know when the route ended last year? Seems like a big extension to me! I however will say that I don’t think it will ever be year round. March-November at Best. Only way for it to be year-round of course is for LH to settle in.

Seems odd to me as one would assume that the flight schedule would be harmonized with the IATA summer and winter timetables. MUC is slot restricted, so operating a flight into the winter timetable for all of 3 weeks seems very strange. And slots need to be used at least 80% in order for them to be kept for the next season. Thus given that the Summer Timetable begins on 25 March, starting service on May 3rd would mean 6 weeks of not using the slot, given that the slot is granted for the entire summer timetable.

I'm not too sure how slots are given out and what factors are measured in determined their efficient use. Perhaps the extenuation of service due to slot security is a reason why the flight is starting earlier this year, and a reason why it was operated later in the the fall in 2017 than initially planned.