In other news as expected, AF 789 service ended on 6/17 and the aircraft will be used on the CDG-KIX. AF377/378 has returned to 77E service. A 77W actually flew the rotation on 6/22 because it cancelled the previous day. Hopefully the 787 returns as more are delivered!

ikolkyo wrote:

In other news as expected, AF 789 service ended on 6/17 and the aircraft will be used on the CDG-KIX. AF377/378 has returned to 77E service. A 77W actually flew the rotation on 6/22 because it cancelled the previous day. Hopefully the 787 returns as more are delivered!

I'd reckon we'll be seeing it return to DTW as soon as the engine issues are done with.

2Holer4Longhaul wrote:

ikolkyo wrote:

In other news as expected, AF 789 service ended on 6/17 and the aircraft will be used on the CDG-KIX. AF377/378 has returned to 77E service. A 77W actually flew the rotation on 6/22 because it cancelled the previous day. Hopefully the 787 returns as more are delivered!

I'd reckon we'll be seeing it return to DTW as soon as the engine issues are done with.

AF 789s are GE powered, they only have 5-6 aircraft though.

ikolkyo wrote:

2Holer4Longhaul wrote:

ikolkyo wrote:

In other news as expected, AF 789 service ended on 6/17 and the aircraft will be used on the CDG-KIX. AF377/378 has returned to 77E service. A 77W actually flew the rotation on 6/22 because it cancelled the previous day. Hopefully the 787 returns as more are delivered!

I'd reckon we'll be seeing it return to DTW as soon as the engine issues are done with.

AF 789s are GE powered, they only have 5-6 aircraft though.

I stand corrected. I thought they were wet-leasing capacity because of that, when in reality it's something else (strikes?).

2Holer4Longhaul wrote:

ikolkyo wrote:

2Holer4Longhaul wrote:

I'd reckon we'll be seeing it return to DTW as soon as the engine issues are done with.

AF 789s are GE powered, they only have 5-6 aircraft though.

I stand corrected. I thought they were wet-leasing capacity because of that, when in reality it's something else (strikes?).

Strikes most likely, the French love their strikes.

WN’s winter schedule is out; PHX goes Saturday-only and ATL & MDW each lose a flight.

Seems like an excellent opportunity for NK to add PHX (just a couple years ago, WN was in the route 2x daily while AA operated it 4x — now WN is Saturday-only whereas AA is 2x daily). Of course, F9 tried the route and failed miserably, but NK is more recognized here...

compensateme wrote:

WN’s winter schedule is out; PHX goes Saturday-only and ATL & MDW each lose a flight.

Seems like an excellent opportunity for NK to add PHX (just a couple years ago, WN was in the route 2x daily while AA operated it 4x — now WN is Saturday-only whereas AA is 2x daily). Of course, F9 tried the route and failed miserably, but NK is more recognized here...

NK was perfect for that route when WN poorly timed the flight last winter.

Kept MCO, no complaints there!

Today, Friday 6/29 is projected to be the busiest travel day of the year for DTW. The Friday before 4th of July week is typically the peak travel day of the year for DTW in terms of enplanements/passengers.

So I saw this today... they are focused on taking on carriers in LAX, MIA... but could be something for ya'll to watch and see if they are interested in competing with DL at DTW.

https://thepointsguy.com/news/world-air ... ll-it-fly/

The auto show will move to June or October starting 2020. This should give a boost to tourism.
Mackinac Island is already #1 tourist destination and Sleeping Bear Dunes is one of the top beaches.

https://www.detroitnews.com/story/busin ... 742994002/

I know the OAG never reported it but DTW-SJU was originally supposed to restart in April on the 757, Saturday only. The route has since been removed. I don’t see the need for SJU to ever come back to DTW, and frankly DTW doesn’t need it.

To be quite honest, flow them through ATL and do a market that matters like PUJ or MBJ which have both seen exponential growth over the last 5 years, particularly PUJ.

Next year, DL is planning the 757 on DTW-MBJ, a well deserved market for this type of aircraft. PUJ will be 2x A320 in the off months on Saturdays.

Also, why not start a new market that has decently become stronger like SXM or AUA?

flymco753 wrote:

I know the OAG never reported it but DTW-SJU was originally supposed to restart in April on the 757, Saturday only. The route has since been removed. I don’t see the need for SJU to ever come back to DTW, and frankly DTW doesn’t need it.

To be quite honest, flow them through ATL and do a market that matters like PUJ or MBJ which have both seen exponential growth over the last 5 years, particularly PUJ.

Next year, DL is planning the 757 on DTW-MBJ, a well deserved market for this type of aircraft. PUJ will be 2x A320 in the off months on Saturdays.

Also, why not start a new market that has decently become stronger like SXM or AUA?

DTW has been a potential market for SJU, and I hope Delta resume the DTW-SJU in W19/20. If we wish increase visitors to the island and boost the Puerto Rican economy, Puerto Rico should stop conforming with U.S. East Coast hubs and look for nonstop flights from DTW, LAX, DEN, AUS, PHX, STL, as well as MEX, SJO, BCN, CDG, LGW, LIM, EZE, and GRU using incentives and aggresive promotions on these destinations.

ktarabay98 wrote:

flymco753 wrote:

I know the OAG never reported it but DTW-SJU was originally supposed to restart in April on the 757, Saturday only. The route has since been removed. I don’t see the need for SJU to ever come back to DTW, and frankly DTW doesn’t need it.

To be quite honest, flow them through ATL and do a market that matters like PUJ or MBJ which have both seen exponential growth over the last 5 years, particularly PUJ.

Next year, DL is planning the 757 on DTW-MBJ, a well deserved market for this type of aircraft. PUJ will be 2x A320 in the off months on Saturdays.

Also, why not start a new market that has decently become stronger like SXM or AUA?

DTW has been a potential market for SJU, and I hope Delta resume the DTW-SJU in W19/20. If we wish increase visitors to the island and boost the Puerto Rican economy, Puerto Rico should stop conforming with U.S. East Coast hubs and look for nonstop flights from DTW, LAX, DEN, AUS, PHX, STL, as well as MEX, SJO, BCN, CDG, LGW, LIM, EZE, and GRU using incentives and aggresive promotions on these destinations.

I’m pretty sure post Irma/Maria numbers will further kill this route. The only reason MCO has so many flights is because of the displacement, most folks fled to there, NYC, and South Florida. Unless SJU can prove to handle a large amount of tourism again, the only markets needed on the mainland are east coast, FL, and Atlanta.

flymco753 wrote:

ktarabay98 wrote:

flymco753 wrote:

I know the OAG never reported it but DTW-SJU was originally supposed to restart in April on the 757, Saturday only. The route has since been removed. I don’t see the need for SJU to ever come back to DTW, and frankly DTW doesn’t need it.

To be quite honest, flow them through ATL and do a market that matters like PUJ or MBJ which have both seen exponential growth over the last 5 years, particularly PUJ.

Next year, DL is planning the 757 on DTW-MBJ, a well deserved market for this type of aircraft. PUJ will be 2x A320 in the off months on Saturdays.

Also, why not start a new market that has decently become stronger like SXM or AUA?

DTW has been a potential market for SJU, and I hope Delta resume the DTW-SJU in W19/20. If we wish increase visitors to the island and boost the Puerto Rican economy, Puerto Rico should stop conforming with U.S. East Coast hubs and look for nonstop flights from DTW, LAX, DEN, AUS, PHX, STL, as well as MEX, SJO, BCN, CDG, LGW, LIM, EZE, and GRU using incentives and aggresive promotions on these destinations.

I’m pretty sure post Irma/Maria numbers will further kill this route. The only reason MCO has so many flights is because of the displacement, most folks fled to there, NYC, and South Florida. Unless SJU can prove to handle a large amount of tourism again, the only markets needed on the mainland are east coast, FL, and Atlanta.

Also, of those other US cities listed, all have a significant amount of people from PR that travel. DTW is virtually absent other then the touristis that used to go, so PDEW now is probably like 1 or 2 a day.

They will bring back CLE to SJU wayyy before Detroit gets it back. The mayor has a lot of great plans for the future of San Juan, it will turn around.

fsafsx wrote:

The mayor has a lot of great plans for the future of San Juan

The mayor that accused our president of wrongful doing when there’s really nothing more he could do? Right....that’ll make it better.

flymco753 wrote:

fsafsx wrote:

The mayor has a lot of great plans for the future of San Juan

The mayor that accused our president of wrongful doing when there’s really nothing more he could do? Right....that’ll make it better.

So because the mayor attacked Donald Trump, something that seemingly half of the country does regularly (and by many definitions rightly), she's less able to bring about effective recovery in San Juan and broader Puerto Rico?

DTW-SJU could be a decent G4 route if they fly it 1x weekly. Or SY with their recent expansion and with Bricker at the helm....

I don’t think Allegiant would fly DTW-SJJ. I think Spirit would be an alternative for the route but I prefer Delta, because of service and DL offers big options of connectivity from DTW. DL operated the route from two weekly to daily and the route was always full with loadfactors of 90%.

The point that I’m am talking about is how potential has the Detroit market from Puerto Rico even after the hurricanes. If we make an aggresive and efective promotions in Detroit, we could increase the PDEW, so can justify an DTW-SJU nonstop even year-round with 1 or 2 weekly on summer season and daily on winter. The Puerto Rico Tourism Company always focused on promote the island on the US East Coast, while the midwest, west coast, LatAm, and Europe the promotions are little or null. I hope the new PR DMO make a stong promotion that the PRTC never did.

The drop of the seasonal weekly SJU service is a function of PR’s economy, infrastructure, and tourism industry in shambles than anything else. Even before the hurricanes tourism was plummeting there. I honestly have not heard of anyone vacationing there from metro Detroit in years.

With the Mexico / Caribbean winter seasonal sun market flying, how much of that is sold through package tour providers and/or Delta vacations?

Like said, CUN, MBJ, and PUJ are super popular in these parts. Can’t say I hear much about AUA I think that one has kind of run it’s course. Basically the places with the highest concentration of all-inclusives seem to do well from the Detroit area sun seeker crowd.

PSU.DTW.SCE wrote:

With the Mexico / Caribbean winter seasonal sun market flying, how much of that is sold through package tour providers and/or Delta vacations.

The majority of winter sun flying is purchased as part of a vacation package, generally though resellers (e.g. AAA, Costco, etc., which resell a variety of tour operators). That said, they utilize scheduled service; Apple Vacations was the last tour operator offering dedicated charter flights from DTW, but DTW was noteably absent from its recently released 2018-19 schedule. While there will likely be a couple one-off flights to serve specifc college spring breakers, 2019 will be the first time in several generations no dedicated scheduled charter flights were offered.

Charter flights operated by Travel Charter in winter 1995: MCO, TPA, FLL, LAS, LAX, CUN, SJU, NAS, MBJ, ACA, AUA, and PVR. Obviously the bulk of this has been replaced by scheduled service, especially NK. Today, the lion’s share of DTW-Mexico/Caribbean is headed to CUN, most of the rest PUJ and there’s scraps elsewhere. The market to SJU, ACA ana AUA has dried up, replaced by PUJ and SJD...

As someone that travels the DTW-CUN route on DL on a fairly regular basis, I can say I'd probably go to other Caribbean/Mexican destinations if the flights worked out. When I'm looking for a place to go, the availability of non-stop flights on DL is one of the major reason I keep going back to CUN. Of course, the selection of hotels is better than anywhere else, but the flights are a big factor. I can't be the only one that thinks this way.

NK isn't an option. Not sure if it is still the case, but Flexperks points couldn't be used to purchase flights on NK, and I'd much rather be in Delta Comfort than on a NK flight.

Viva Aerobus gets the nod for Apple to Cancún next winter. Good to see them continue.

In terms of Caribbean markets, it’s a tough call between PUJ and MBJ. Both are growing fairly quickly, I’m surprised these flights don’t go daily in the winter time. The least they can do is a 73W or A319 to PUJ and MBJ during the week.

Delta has a lot of A321's scheduled for Detroit in October, unfortunately at the cost of 757's.

On Oct 26th the following routes have A321's: BOS, LGA, DCA, BWI, ATL, MCO, TPA, RDU, MSP, LAX, SAN, LAS, SLC, and DEN with cameo appearances on GRR, FLL, and RSW.

I know that this isn’t the most realiable source, but on wikepedia found that NK’s SEA route is ending. I know that it’s seasonal, but I couldn’t find a single flight for next April/May!

BenflysDTW wrote:

I know that this isn’t the most realiable source, but on wikepedia found that NK’s SEA route is ending. I know that it’s seasonal, but I couldn’t find a single flight for next April/May!

It's a seasonal suspension as normal. The schedule only goes out to early Feb.

flymco753 wrote:

Delta has a lot of A321's scheduled for Detroit in October, unfortunately at the cost of 757's.

On Oct 26th the following routes have A321's: BOS, LGA, DCA, BWI, ATL, MCO, TPA, RDU, MSP, LAX, SAN, LAS, SLC, and DEN with cameo appearances on GRR, FLL, and RSW.

Are the 757s going to the desert?

BenflysDTW wrote:

I know that this isn’t the most realiable source, but on wikepedia found that NK’s SEA route is ending. I know that it’s seasonal, but I couldn’t find a single flight for next April/May!

NK’s schedule extends only through February.

flymco753 wrote:

Delta has a lot of A321's scheduled for Detroit in October, unfortunately at the cost of 757's.

Why is that unfortunate? The A321s are in my opinion a better customer experience especially given most of them have the 2KU Wifi.

Additionally, it's worth pointing out that year over year, DL capacity in and out of DTW for the month of October is up +3.6% when measured by seats and +2.9% when measured by ASMs, so again a bit confused as to why replacing 757s with A321s is an unfortunate thing?

winginit wrote:

flymco753 wrote:

Delta has a lot of A321's scheduled for Detroit in October, unfortunately at the cost of 757's.

Why is that unfortunate? The A321s are in my opinion a better customer experience especially given most of them have the 2KU Wifi.

Additionally, it's worth pointing out that year over year, DL capacity in and out of DTW for the month of October is up +3.6% when measured by seats and +2.9% when measured by ASMs, so again a bit confused as to why replacing 757s with A321s is an unfortunate thing?

The increase in ASMs is great however my thought of losing 757s is all opinion. Factually, a good thing is happening.

Why does mainline on UA and AA fluctuate so intensely at DTW?

reasonable wrote:

Why does mainline on UA and AA fluctuate so intensely at DTW?

UA is pretty consistent. For the past few years, DEN (and now SFO) has been all mainline, then there’s generally 1 or 2 additional flights, usually to ORD but also occasional short IAH stints (especially around the holidays). A couple years ago, UA tried increasing capacity to DTW via 3x-5x daily mainline flights to ORD, but LF were in the 50s. They’ve also done a few short stints to EWR, but that was likely a derivative of aircraft availability as the scheduling was brief and they never increased the lower fare buckets.

This summer there’s a 739 to IAH but no mainline to ORD — the first summer in six years and first extended period in 5 years IAH has had mainline service. If you buy your tickets in advance, you can get the IAH flight for OW$69, vs. the typical OW$200+ charged on this route.

it’s interesting how far UA has fallen at DTW over the past decade or so — from the #2 airline (in enplanements), to having just over 1/3 that of AA and 1/2 of WN...

I don't know if I'd say they are that inconsistent in most recent times, the wildcard that skews that perception tends to the the ORD flights and seasonal/seasonality reductions on off-peak flights to certain hubs.

AA:
DFW - all mainline, all time. I don't think this has ever received a regional operated-flight. Still one of the last vestiges of the AA MD-80. I love driving into the airport seeing the old-school livery on an AA MD-80 parked on the north end of concourse D.
MIA - varies between 2 mainline-only, 2 mainline + 1 E70/E75, and 3 mainline-only throughout the year based on seasonality.
PHX - all mainline
CLT - mixture of mainline and regional; peak time flights are mainline; somewhat varies seasonally
PHL - similar to CLT, will see 1-2 mainline flights in the mix depending on the season
DCA - regional only
LGA - regional only
ORD - tends to see 1-2 mainline flights in the mix depending on the time of the year and/or aircraft availiability

The biggest difference is that DTW-Chicago capacity is down 40-50% from early 2000 levels across the board; hence the perception of less mainline from UA & AA. I posted somewhere a few weeks ago in this or a similar thread about the capacity difference. Gone are the days of DC-10, 757, MD-80s, 73S, 72S flights to ORD across the board.

Seems AS has pulled PDX. I thought this could've at least worked from June-August but the aircraft could be better utilized elsewhere. SEA seems fine with 2x daily. With NK on SAN, there's no more room for other carriers on SAN. The only other option AS could jump into is SJC, which is a stretch.

I want to have a serious conversation about the potential of someone starting SJO from DTW. Before things get blown out of proportion, traffic to SJO is a median of 30 PDEW, low of 18, and high of 60. Delta won't do it, it doesn't seem natural for Spirit (yet), how about Volaris Costa Rica?

Part of the reason AS is cutting routes like DTW-PDX is because the flights eat-up a lot of aircraft and crew time due to mid-con length flights. They get more short-medium length flights in per day / per aircraft on shorter length flights. WN went through a similar evolution a few years ago.

Regarding SJO, I'm not sure even NK would want to fly it. Volaris is not likely, they would have zero name/brand recognition in the DTW market. The challenge with most routes from DTW that fly much further south than Mexico & Carribean is the increasing opportunity costs and expense of operating the flights. They become "long and thin". Flights like a DTW-SJO turn would require 12-13 hours of aircraft time, essentially the full operating day, and now you likely have to stay laying-over crews. Hence why DL won't fly these from DTW and its more feasible from ATL since the flight times better suit connections and allow for better aircraft utilization.
At best, maybe NK seasonal less-than-daily during peak spring break season, but again it comes down to the best use of resources elsewhere in the system as there are a lot of other places that may be more viable to add capacity during peak spring break than a long-thin DTW-SJO route.

flymco753 wrote:

I want to have a serious conversation about the potential of someone starting SJO from DTW. Before things get blown out of proportion, traffic to SJO is a median of 30 PDEW, low of 18, and high of 60. Delta won't do it, it doesn't seem natural for Spirit (yet), how about Volaris Costa Rica?

G4 or SY too. Maybe F9 if they decide to take their domestic expansion strategy international.

Volaris Costa Rica needs more planes first.

I don't think it fits Spirit at all yet, as F9 is taking the more risky approach recently.

Well, FWIW Spirit just announced DTW-MBJ 3x weekly this winter. Not bad. Service begins Thur Dec 20 aboard the 320(S).

I actually thought NK had previously operated DTW-MBJ.

Would not surprise me to see DL increase their service this winter. DL hasn’t really announced and/or loaded much of their winter schedule yet. They typically blast out a bunch of press releases in late July / early August when they do.

That said MBJ is a super-hot destination now and the economy is strong and in theory people have more disposable or discretionary income now. Even my friends that step on an airplane about once every 5 years are planning a trip to MBJ this winter. I declined, I’d rather be on the mountains in Colorado instead.

PDX must’ve been a miserable performer, as NK quickly dumped it and AS decided the market wouldn’t develop. AS also dropped one of its two SEA flights next spring, leaving DTW with just a single AS flight.

I heavily suspect MBJ is being operated in conjunction with one of the tour operators. NK has never operated scheduled service from DTW to MBJ, although it may have served the market as a public charter on behalf of one tour operators (something it hasn’t done in at least a decade).

Great to see NK keep expanding. I’m shocked they didn’t go with seasonal PUJ, which has emerged as the second-largest international market from DTW and is arguably underserved — just a single weekly season flight, and the lion’s share of the market connects.

Will be interesting to see if DL reacts. DL was too stubborn to go daily on CUN during the summer until NK announced its intentions.

I wonder if DL will drop their second flight and if they will keep PDX year-round.

I was thinking NK would go with PUJ too. It’s still is a definite option for the future though.

Before the hurricane(s), SXM was really putting up some growth as a potential Caribbean destination. I don’t see why there can’t be a Saturday nonstop on Delta once tourism recovers.

NKs new MBJ flight is scheduled service. The aircraft looks to be split days with PBI. LAX went to 2x daily in the winter. Also, NK offers the most seats between Florida and DTW than any other NK station. This is very impressive. MCO & RSW are both 4x daily in the winter, so there’s no doubt that they perform very well in Detroit.

There’s a lot of potential for Spirit there, places like BDL, EWR, and PHX are among 3 domestic candidates while PUJ makes sense for a good international candidate. Not to mention potential new cities.

I’m a little confused by the article, it says CUN “up to daily.” During the winter service is daily, but during the summer it’s served I think a couple times a week. Does this mean that CUN will be daily year-round?

BenflysDTW wrote:

I’m a little confused by the article, it says CUN “up to daily.” During the winter service is daily, but during the summer it’s served I think a couple times a week. Does this mean that CUN will be daily year-round?

Yes. It's normally off daily on the A319 in the summer.

This has little validity until it happens because things will probably switch a thousand times before than, but DL has planned all 6 flights scheduled as mainline. DTW had a strong 2nd quarter as did the rest of the DL network including focus cities at CVG, RDU and MCO. This October appears to have more mainline to more destinations particularly to the east coast.

What market you refering to as all 6?

PSU.DTW.SCE wrote:

What market you refering to as all 6?

DFW, didn’t realize I didn’t put it in there.

When do you see all 6 mainline on DTW-DFW? I only see 2-3 out of 6 per day in October, unless its some one-off event.
That would be a pretty significant bump in capacity since its typically a mix of CR9/E75 76 seaters, 717, A319/A320.

Ironically I just booked a DTW-DFW ticket for next week on a CR9 going down and a 717 on the return.
Contemplated booking DAL-ATL-DTW on the return for the novelty, but the last few connections through ATL have resulted in very delayed and late arrivals into DTW due to thunderstorms.

PSU.DTW.SCE wrote:

When do you see all 6 mainline on DTW-DFW? I only see 2-3 out of 6 per day in October, unless its some one-off event.
That would be a pretty significant bump in capacity since its typically a mix of CR9/E75 76 seaters, 717, A319/A320.

Ironically I just booked a DTW-DFW ticket for next week on a CR9 going down and a 717 on the return.
Contemplated booking DAL-ATL-DTW on the return for the novelty, but the last few connections through ATL have resulted in very delayed and late arrivals into DTW due to thunderstorms.

I was looking at next June even though we know it’s going to change and they’re placeholders. Still cool to look at.

NK continues to increase its frequency on CUN, now operating it daily most of the year and Saturday during some spring and fall months. This is a derivative of continued growth to CUN, a product of the hot economy. Just a few years ago, many large properties shuttered large portions during the shoulder seasons, but that’s not true anymore. More of a “national” trend — for example, many of the large resorts in PHX followed a similar pattern, shuttering large portions of their resort and ceasing many amenities, but again, no longer true.

PSU.DTW.SCE wrote:

booking DAL-ATL-DTW on the return for the novelty, but the last few connections through ATL have resulted in very delayed and late arrivals into DTW due to thunderstorms.

I’ve gotten to the same point. For whatever reason, this year UA has perpetually offered (for a few hours each time) incredibly cheap fares to/from LAX and/or SNA. I bought a few from SNA at RT$78; flew SNA-ORD-DTW-IAH-SNA — got into ORD ontime only to discover my flight to DTW was cancelled and replaced with an Indian Trails bus — first time that’s ever happened to me. On the return, IAH-SNA was delayed by three hours. For the first time ever, I realize that I’d rather fly an NK nonstop out of LAX! I didn’t use the last two RT...