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PSU.DTW.SCE
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Re: Detroit air service discussion - 2018

Mon Oct 22, 2018 4:09 pm

Ugh.

Unrelated, today I saw a Super-tug with Menzie's logos on the back of a flat-bed going down I-96.
 
winginit
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Re: Detroit air service discussion - 2018

Mon Oct 22, 2018 4:12 pm

klm617 wrote:
Many things that out leaders talk about never come to fruition. But at least you have Aer Lingus's attention and let's face it it's not about the money MSP offered nothing. Then you go from there while continuing to keep their attention and focus on Detroit rather than another city by being apathetic to the situation. If your mindset is the economics don't work then they won't but if your mindset is I'm going to do whatever I can to make these economics work in some way then you will find a way. It's like studying for a test if you know you're going to fail do you just accept that and fail no you study harder and try your hardest to pass.


The 'mindset' here is, again, entirely irrelevant. This is not a 'where there's a will there's a way' situation. Aer Lingus has a fiduciary duty to their shareholders to maximize profit, and they do that by launching routes shown to be the most profitable by their modeling at the time. Thus, the only thing you can do to make a difference is change their model's inputs. The fact that MSP was chosen over DTW without incentives should be telling as to the economic realities of the situation, which are the only realities that matter.

That being the reality of the situation, which inputs do you plan to influence in order to change the output of EI's modeling?

klm617 wrote:
But I can say this they are doing something right in MSP adding ICN, DUB, and soon PVG along with KL something the Detroit people are not doing.


Wow. You couldn't be more wrong, and it's a sad perspective from you really being a DTW resident. MSP is not doing something that DTW isn't doing. MSP is catching up to things that DTW did years ago, since DTW has long had service all across many of the destinations you mentioned. Honestly give your city some historical credit for building such an impressive hub. What a horrible attitude you have - you're a sad reflection of your city and community.
Last edited by winginit on Mon Oct 22, 2018 4:16 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
alfa164
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Re: Detroit air service discussion - 2018

Mon Oct 22, 2018 4:16 pm

winginit wrote:
klm617 wrote:
Get ready folks Delta is setting Detroit up to take another big hit by purposing MSP-PVG for 2020. While it proposes ZERO for Detroit international adds.

DL's MSPPVG proposal appears to me nothing more than a swipe at AA's dormant US to China slots. DL well knows that the slot authorities are only going to pressure AA into using or giving up their soon to be dormant ORD-PEK and ORD-PVG slots if an alternative service is proposed by another carrier that brings a new nonstop link to a city that does not currently offer nonstop service between the US and China. MSP obviously fits that bill, and DTW obviously does not as DTW already has nonstop service to both PVG and PEK.


:checkmark: This. There is no way slots would be awarded to an airline wanting to fly a second frequency on a route they already serve. All the whining about "Detroit... another big hit" is just that: whining, with no basis in logic or fact.

:roll:
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maps4ltd
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Re: Detroit air service discussion - 2018

Mon Oct 22, 2018 4:31 pm

DTW already has nonstop PEK service; I think it's fine that MSP gets PVG.
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lavalampluva
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Re: Detroit air service discussion - 2018

Mon Oct 22, 2018 4:32 pm

klm617 wrote:
Get ready folks Delta is setting Detroit up to take another big hit by purposing MSP-PVG for 2020. While it proposes ZERO for Detroit international adds.

Why did I know it wouldn’t take long before we heard from you. :white:
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klm617
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Re: Detroit air service discussion - 2018

Mon Oct 22, 2018 5:14 pm

winginit wrote:
klm617 wrote:
Many things that out leaders talk about never come to fruition. But at least you have Aer Lingus's attention and let's face it it's not about the money MSP offered nothing. Then you go from there while continuing to keep their attention and focus on Detroit rather than another city by being apathetic to the situation. If your mindset is the economics don't work then they won't but if your mindset is I'm going to do whatever I can to make these economics work in some way then you will find a way. It's like studying for a test if you know you're going to fail do you just accept that and fail no you study harder and try your hardest to pass.


The 'mindset' here is, again, entirely irrelevant. This is not a 'where there's a will there's a way' situation. Aer Lingus has a fiduciary duty to their shareholders to maximize profit, and they do that by launching routes shown to be the most profitable by their modeling at the time. Thus, the only thing you can do to make a difference is change their model's inputs. The fact that MSP was chosen over DTW without incentives should be telling as to the economic realities of the situation, which are the only realities that matter.

That being the reality of the situation, which inputs do you plan to influence in order to change the output of EI's modeling?

klm617 wrote:
But I can say this they are doing something right in MSP adding ICN, DUB, and soon PVG along with KL something the Detroit people are not doing.


Wow. You couldn't be more wrong, and it's a sad perspective from you really being a DTW resident. MSP is not doing something that DTW isn't doing. MSP is catching up to things that DTW did years ago, since DTW has long had service all across many of the destinations you mentioned. Honestly give your city some historical credit for building such an impressive hub. What a horrible attitude you have - you're a sad reflection of your city and community.


Catching up if Detroit was that far ahead of MSP it still should be ahead of them but the reality is it's not. Things have been pretty much status quo here for years now so I don't think catching up is the term and if it was who is Detroit catching up with. I don't have a dim view it's how things are. Like I said in another post if Delta can dabble in BOS-EDI then surely it can dabble in something as marginal as that in Detroit. But as MSP moves forward so should Detroit because let's face it if it held onto all that service through the worst of times with commercial aviation growing as it is surely Detroit should be part of that.
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winginit
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Re: Detroit air service discussion - 2018

Mon Oct 22, 2018 5:21 pm

klm617 wrote:
Catching up if Detroit was that far ahead of MSP it still should be ahead of them but the reality is it's not. Things have been pretty much status quo here for years now so I don't think catching up is the term and if it was who is Detroit catching up with. I don't have a dim view it's how things are. Like I said in another post if Delta can dabble in BOS-EDI then surely it can dabble in something as marginal as that in Detroit. But as MSP moves forward so should Detroit because let's face it if it held onto all that service through the worst of times with commercial aviation growing as it is surely Detroit should be part of that.


For what must be the fifth time in this thread I'll point out that since 2010 Detroit Metro's population growth of +0.39% has been the worst of any metropolitan statistic area in the Top 25. Minneapolis metro, over the same time period, has grown +7.52%. So no, just because DTW was far ahead of MSP as a hub absolutely does not mean that they should still be that far ahead when their metro population has been stagnant while many others have grown significantly.

Remember those modeling inputs we spoke of earlier? You can bet population growth, which in many ways reflects the health of a metropolitan area, is in some way shape or form taken into consideration.
 
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atcsundevil
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Re: Detroit air service discussion - 2018

Mon Oct 22, 2018 5:40 pm

Please keep the discussion to DTW and refrain from trolling posts. It is possible to discuss DTW without resorting to personal attacks, so let's give it a try.

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flymco753
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Re: Detroit air service discussion - 2018

Mon Oct 22, 2018 6:14 pm

Here's a nice, constructive conversation. The Detroit-Barcelona market is slightly bigger than DUB, DTW-Spain would fill a 757, why isn't that flown? Perhaps, yields are too low?
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klm617
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Re: Detroit air service discussion - 2018

Mon Oct 22, 2018 7:20 pm

flymco753 wrote:
Here's a nice, constructive conversation. The Detroit-Barcelona market is slightly bigger than DUB, DTW-Spain would fill a 757, why isn't that flown? Perhaps, yields are too low?



At this point I would welcome anything but DTW-BCN would have to be on Delta because it would need feed to make it work can a 757 even do that route ?
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flymco753
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Re: Detroit air service discussion - 2018

Mon Oct 22, 2018 8:39 pm

klm617 wrote:
flymco753 wrote:
Here's a nice, constructive conversation. The Detroit-Barcelona market is slightly bigger than DUB, DTW-Spain would fill a 757, why isn't that flown? Perhaps, yields are too low?



At this point I would welcome anything but DTW-BCN would have to be on Delta because it would need feed to make it work can a 757 even do that route ?
It's pushing it for a 757, it would have to be a 76W which unfortunately has too many premium seats. The route seems to post low yields so that's not good if DL wanted to try it. If LEVEL and justify flying the route nonstop twice a week on an A330, that may work, but I'm not familiar with what kind of yields Level chases after. Might be too low traffic for them. They know if they try, DL comes in, beats them, and then ends the route a few years later without using incentives.
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kavok
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Re: Detroit air service discussion - 2018

Mon Oct 22, 2018 8:44 pm

Would the DTW-BCN yields really be that much worse than FCO? To me those markets are both very similar and seasonal, albeit with FCO having a much larger tourism draw.
 
drdisque
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Re: Detroit air service discussion - 2018

Mon Oct 22, 2018 9:30 pm

DTW-BCN is only 60 miles further than DTW-FRA which was flown by a 757 back in ~2007. Now, it may have taken a weight restriction pretty often, but it's not impossible.
 
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flymco753
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Re: Detroit air service discussion - 2018

Mon Oct 22, 2018 10:11 pm

I don't think DL has the room to put a 75W in Detroit unless they deploy D1 to LAX, SFO, PDX, SAN, or SEA and bridge the flight for BCN. The 76W is more flexible.

I'm trying to find out more about comparing yields with BCN and FCO. Don't forget that FCO does get some high yielding pax on the Detroit end because of the autos. BCN will have virtually no Premium on the Detroit end. That's what makes BCN so hard to justify.
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SumChristianus
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Re: Detroit air service discussion - 2018

Mon Oct 22, 2018 10:38 pm

flymco753 wrote:
I don't think DL has the room to put a 75W in Detroit unless they deploy D1 to LAX, SFO, PDX, SAN, or SEA and bridge the flight for BCN. The 76W is more flexible.

I'm trying to find out more about comparing yields with BCN and FCO. Don't forget that FCO does get some high yielding pax on the Detroit end because of the autos. BCN will have virtually no Premium on the Detroit end. That's what makes BCN so hard to justify.


Not suggesting this will happen, but BOS-DUB could have been a W rotation enabler for bringing the 75W into DTW. Its now a 76W, but if they add DTW-DUB they could bring both down to 75Ws flying BOS-DUB-DTW-DUB-BOS. Does the 75W get to BOS from JFK via JFK-SFO-BOS at present.

klm617 wrote:
Get ready folks Delta is setting Detroit up to take another big hit by purposing MSP-PVG for 2020. While it proposes ZERO for Detroit international adds.

I somehow doubt MSP-PVG will work at present with DL having just started ATL-PVG. Its probably more of a political ploy to force AA's hand into losses or give up rights for some ethereal "tomorrow it will work" goal of DL in China.
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PSU.DTW.SCE
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Re: Detroit air service discussion - 2018

Mon Oct 22, 2018 10:47 pm

DTW-BCN is more amount the "opportunity cost" of deploying an aircraft during peak summer flying into a heavy-leisure, heavy US-based POS market that has likely has a similar profile to FCO in terms of summer seasonality. DL already is flying ATL & JFK - BCN on A330-300s.

However, this sounds more like a potential 76W (low-J) route instead of a 75W. the 75W is not DL's preferred aircraft to use into leisure-heavy markets.

In isolation this one sounds good, but its competing against a lot of other potential seasonal adds across the network. Like we've seen, they are almost more likely to "bulk-up" DTW-AMS/CDG/LHR flying before more secondary and seasonal Europe.

However, is MAD or BCN a bigger summer seasonal market?
 
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Re: Detroit air service discussion - 2018

Mon Oct 22, 2018 10:48 pm

DTW-BCN is more amount the "opportunity cost" of deploying an aircraft during peak summer flying into a heavy-leisure, heavy US-based POS market that has likely has a similar profile to FCO in terms of summer seasonality. DL already is flying ATL & JFK - BCN on A330-300s.

However, this sounds more like a potential 76W (low-J) route instead of a 75W. the 75W is not DL's preferred aircraft to use into leisure-heavy markets.

In isolation this one sounds good, but its competing against a lot of other potential seasonal adds across the network. Like we've seen, they are almost more likely to "bulk-up" DTW-AMS/CDG/LHR flying before more secondary and seasonal Europe.

However, is MAD or BCN a bigger summer seasonal market?
 
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flymco753
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Re: Detroit air service discussion - 2018

Mon Oct 22, 2018 11:38 pm

BCN is larger all year. While it drops off for the winter, it still remains higher than MAD, but not by much, at least that's what my analysis is when I correlate traffic to yields in an 11 month period. It suggests that BCN is most popular June-September.
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flymco753
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Re: Detroit air service discussion - 2018

Mon Oct 22, 2018 11:39 pm

BCN is larger all year. While it drops off for the winter, it still remains higher than MAD, but not by much, at least that's what my analysis is when I correlate traffic to yields in an 11 month period. It suggests that BCN is most popular June-September.
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GSP psgr
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Re: Detroit air service discussion - 2018

Mon Oct 22, 2018 11:42 pm

PSU.DTW.SCE wrote:
DTW-BCN is more amount the "opportunity cost" of deploying an aircraft during peak summer flying into a heavy-leisure, heavy US-based POS market that has likely has a similar profile to FCO in terms of summer seasonality. DL already is flying ATL & JFK - BCN on A330-300s.

However, this sounds more like a potential 76W (low-J) route instead of a 75W. the 75W is not DL's preferred aircraft to use into leisure-heavy markets.

In isolation this one sounds good, but its competing against a lot of other potential seasonal adds across the network. Like we've seen, they are almost more likely to "bulk-up" DTW-AMS/CDG/LHR flying before more secondary and seasonal Europe.

However, is MAD or BCN a bigger summer seasonal market?


If they do Spain, it will likely be to Madrid to take advantage of the AirEuropa hub there (the SkyTeam partner everyone forgets exists!). Even if the BCN market is a bit larger, the ability to feed pax onto secondary Spanish destinations might make up for it. I still think DTW-DUB is much more likely than MAD, but MAD might be just as likely as something like MAN because its a hub-hub route, and there's almost no bottom to seasonal Southern Europe traffic.
 
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klm617
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Re: Detroit air service discussion - 2018

Tue Oct 23, 2018 12:15 am

SumChristianus wrote:
flymco753 wrote:
I don't think DL has the room to put a 75W in Detroit unless they deploy D1 to LAX, SFO, PDX, SAN, or SEA and bridge the flight for BCN. The 76W is more flexible.

I'm trying to find out more about comparing yields with BCN and FCO. Don't forget that FCO does get some high yielding pax on the Detroit end because of the autos. BCN will have virtually no Premium on the Detroit end. That's what makes BCN so hard to justify.


Not suggesting this will happen, but BOS-DUB could have been a W rotation enabler for bringing the 75W into DTW. Its now a 76W, but if they add DTW-DUB they could bring both down to 75Ws flying BOS-DUB-DTW-DUB-BOS. Does the 75W get to BOS from JFK via JFK-SFO-BOS at present.

klm617 wrote:
Get ready folks Delta is setting Detroit up to take another big hit by purposing MSP-PVG for 2020. While it proposes ZERO for Detroit international adds.

I somehow doubt MSP-PVG will work at present with DL having just started ATL-PVG. Its probably more of a political ploy to force AA's hand into losses or give up rights for some ethereal "tomorrow it will work" goal of DL in China.


The issue is it's not in the best interest of the airport to have DL on Detroit Dublin. First off it will not stimulate the growth that EI will and secondly Delta would most likely operate it in the summer only while EI would probably operate the route year round. As long the airport leaves this EI opportunity on the table the more the traveling public of Detroit will lose out and the more that Delta will get a choke hold on this market making it even harder to get new service into Detroit. DL makes no sense on DTW-DUB just like BA makes no sense on DTW-LHR that is just more of the same this market needs diversity price wise and carrier wise to stimulate any kind of meaningful growth.
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flymco753
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Re: Detroit air service discussion - 2018

Tue Oct 23, 2018 3:49 am

You got a valid point. EI sells beyond DUB so that routes like BCN, MAN, MAD all have a decent connection in DUB mixed with local traffic. DL would almost be shooting themselves in the foot because they cant sell beyond DUB at the cost EI can.
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2Holer4Longhaul
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Re: Detroit air service discussion - 2018

Tue Oct 23, 2018 4:54 am

flymco753 wrote:
You got a valid point. EI sells beyond DUB so that routes like BCN, MAN, MAD all have a decent connection in DUB mixed with local traffic. DL would almost be shooting themselves in the foot because they cant sell beyond DUB at the cost EI can.

DL can't sell beyond DUB, but EI can't sell beyond DTW. Think about that.
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klm617
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Re: Detroit air service discussion - 2018

Tue Oct 23, 2018 11:02 am

2Holer4Longhaul wrote:
flymco753 wrote:
You got a valid point. EI sells beyond DUB so that routes like BCN, MAN, MAD all have a decent connection in DUB mixed with local traffic. DL would almost be shooting themselves in the foot because they cant sell beyond DUB at the cost EI can.

DL can't sell beyond DUB, but EI can't sell beyond DTW. Think about that.


And this is exactly why EI is a better fit. They are more interested in serving the Detroit market than Delta would be. EI gives Detroit more options while Delta just brings more of the same. Summer only limited service high fares and limited connection possibilities at already over crowded hubs plus out of the way connections for most of England. If you're flying out of this region and want to fly to any part of England skyteam is for the most part going to route you out of your way to get there while EI has connections at a less congested airport plus you don't have to fly out of your way by an hour in each direction to get to places like BHX, GLA and the like. Not to mention the price relief you would get from EI that could not be realized by a Delta DTW-DUB link.
the truth does matter, guys. too bad it's often quite subjective. the truth is beyond the mere facts and figures. it's beyond good and bad, right and wrong...
 
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flymco753
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Re: Detroit air service discussion - 2018

Tue Oct 23, 2018 2:17 pm

You're right about EI, klm617. I'm skeptical about EK because if the evening BOS flight on B6 transers the EK pax, that flight would be a goner. That would ultimately hurt B6 in this market because they're already not doing good, so I'm not sure I'd want to see them completely end DTW over gaining an EK flight.

Domestically, there's not much more to go other than the couple of airports that requested grants for DTW service like ROA. SMF and ELP are probably it for DL in terms of new destinations. NK could add VPS as a new destination and that's about it. The rest would be adding onto existing routes.

Internationally, it's kind of simple because there's nowhere else to go. I would suggest SXM but the infrastructure isn't really there yet. It would be a poison to pick between MAN and BCN for DL, otherwise there's nowhere else for them to go in Europe. The Orient is covered well. India could use a better flight. EI should add DUB. Eurowings could make a twice weekly DUS work, but DL could respond with a daily 76W. There's really nowhere else to go internationally that makes sense other than to build on what DTW has now.

DL mentioned expanding DTW-Latin America when they added HNL...why? The DTW-Latin America market outside of GRU, MEX, GDL, BJX, QRO, and MTY is minuscule. Are there any auto or tech markets? BOG? LIM? SCL? I'm confused as to why they would infer that.

Edit: please include SJO with sizable LatinAm markets.
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jetlanta
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Re: Detroit air service discussion - 2018

Tue Oct 23, 2018 2:51 pm

klm617 wrote:
2Holer4Longhaul wrote:
klm617 wrote:
So with BA starting LHR-CHS that opens up a whole bunch of new possibilities at what Detroit might attract. If a market that is that far out of the box can be added anything becomes possible.

That's not an apples to apples comparison. It's not even apples to oranges. This is like comparing apples to turkeys.
Charleston is a small, touristy destination that had no TATL flights until now.
Detroit is bigger, not a tourist destination by any stretch of the word, and has robust service across both oceans.
What happens to Charleston says very little about Detroit.


Actually no that's not true Northern Michigan is very touristy in the summer months why do you think TVC has a big build up of flights in the summer some of the best beaches in the country. Detroit is the perfect airport to take a flight to if you want to vacation in Northern Michigan which a lot of people do. Endless golf courses and vineyards not to mention Mackinac Island. People have to get out of that mindset that Detroit is just Detroit. Michigan is so much more than just Detroit.


Oh come on. I love Michigan as much as anyone, but you don't seem to have any concept of the types of visitors that travel to each place. The State of South Carolina and the Charleston spend an absolute fortune on marketing the city to high-end visitors, including from the UK. Charleston is ranked the #1 U.S. city by Conde Nast Traveler and Travel + Leisure year in, year out. It has a well-established brand in the UK. And they are putting a LOT of money on the table for this limited service. (Money btw, that DTW can't offer BA under FAA guidelines due to the fact that DTW has an incumbent carrier in the market.)

In contrast, most of AMERICA has no idea that Michigan is a tourist destination. Because, frankly, it isn't outside of Midwesterners and a few well-heeled folks who enjoy the TVC region. ATL is GRR's #1 O&D market and I can assure you that, despite excellent air service between the two cities, no one in ATL ever takes a holiday in Northern Michigan except me. The idea that Northern Michigan tourism is going to support a BA flight arriving nearly four hours away is ridiculous. There has plenty of service between DTW-LHR for years and the Brits still aren't coming.
 
jetlanta
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Re: Detroit air service discussion - 2018

Tue Oct 23, 2018 2:57 pm

klm617 wrote:
2Holer4Longhaul wrote:
klm617 wrote:

Excellent response to avoid responding to my comment.

He does have a point. Eloquence is necessary for smooth communication, and your writing is anything but eloquent. Taks their writing suggestions, communicate your ideas better, and I promise you'll be taken more seriously.



Those who want to understand will always find a way and those who don't want to understand will always find a diversion or an excuse not to and their response will come in the form some sort of condescending response. It's all good because I'm not looking for respect or credibility.


Congratulations?
 
jetlanta
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Re: Detroit air service discussion - 2018

Tue Oct 23, 2018 3:06 pm

I'm surprised that I haven't seen a mention of Glen Hauenstein's comments on last week's investor call:

Edward Russell, Flightglobal

Edward: I wanted to ask about your performance in Minneapolis. Detroit is very strong in the quarter, however, I've seen some capacity reductions there in connecting markets like [garbled] and Peoria. Can you talk about the strength there and why you're pulling out of some of those connecting markets?

Glen: We are growing Detroit. As a matter of fact, we have significant growth in Detroit. We're adding new markets. I believe, in November, we added Detroit to San Jose and last year we added Detroit to Santa Ana, and so we're trying to make our schedules more relevant to people in Detroit to places people in Detroit want to go, focusing on the top 50 cities that people in Detroit want to go. And to the extent that regional – and to the extent that we are not making money into regional cities, we're rationalizing that capacity out of the network in some of those cities to look at the number of people who went from Detroit to Peoria on any given day, it was probably less than 10. And there are alternatives in the region. So streamlining, making the network more efficient and providing the people in Detroit with places they want to go. And we're very excited. Ed last month announced the new services from Detroit to Honolulu. And so we have – we are growing Detroit and we're really committed to Detroit, and we're excited about 2019 because there's going to be quite a bit more service into Detroit.

I'd expect most of this to be frequency growth and up gauging of aircraft. But I've been expecting this for a long time. DTW is cash cow for Delta, now that the NYC/LAX/SEA growth initiatives are slowing down and a significant portion of ATL's up gauging is complete, the focus will shift to the interior fortress hubs.
 
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Re: Detroit air service discussion - 2018

Tue Oct 23, 2018 3:44 pm

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Midwestindy
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Re: Detroit air service discussion - 2018

Tue Oct 23, 2018 3:46 pm

jetlanta wrote:
I'm surprised that I haven't seen a mention of Glen Hauenstein's comments on last week's investor call:

Edward Russell, Flightglobal

Edward: I wanted to ask about your performance in Minneapolis. Detroit is very strong in the quarter, however, I've seen some capacity reductions there in connecting markets like [garbled] and Peoria. Can you talk about the strength there and why you're pulling out of some of those connecting markets?

Glen: We are growing Detroit. As a matter of fact, we have significant growth in Detroit. We're adding new markets. I believe, in November, we added Detroit to San Jose and last year we added Detroit to Santa Ana, and so we're trying to make our schedules more relevant to people in Detroit to places people in Detroit want to go, focusing on the top 50 cities that people in Detroit want to go. And to the extent that regional – and to the extent that we are not making money into regional cities, we're rationalizing that capacity out of the network in some of those cities to look at the number of people who went from Detroit to Peoria on any given day, it was probably less than 10. And there are alternatives in the region. So streamlining, making the network more efficient and providing the people in Detroit with places they want to go. And we're very excited. Ed last month announced the new services from Detroit to Honolulu. And so we have – we are growing Detroit and we're really committed to Detroit, and we're excited about 2019 because there's going to be quite a bit more service into Detroit.

I'd expect most of this to be frequency growth and up gauging of aircraft. But I've been expecting this for a long time. DTW is cash cow for Delta, now that the NYC/LAX/SEA growth initiatives are slowing down and a significant portion of ATL's up gauging is complete, the focus will shift to the interior fortress hubs.


This was brought up weeks ago on this very thread, did you use the search function?
ORD & IND

AA & DL
 
winginit
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Re: Detroit air service discussion - 2018

Tue Oct 23, 2018 3:49 pm

klm617 wrote:
The issue is it's not in the best interest of the airport to have DL on Detroit Dublin. First off it will not stimulate the growth that EI will and secondly Delta would most likely operate it in the summer only while EI would probably operate the route year round. As long the airport leaves this EI opportunity on the table the more the traveling public of Detroit will lose out and the more that Delta will get a choke hold on this market making it even harder to get new service into Detroit. DL makes no sense on DTW-DUB just like BA makes no sense on DTW-LHR that is just more of the same this market needs diversity price wise and carrier wise to stimulate any kind of meaningful growth.


So I'm a bit confused as to how you value Detroit's interests. Which of the two hypothetical options would you prefer?

Option I

EI launches year-round nonstop service between DTW and DUB with a 321. We'll say that 321 has 120 seats just for an easy example. To keep things simple let's just say that the city of Detroit collects $1 per passenger in take off and landing fees, so this service provides $240 per day to the city of Detroit in the form of take-off or landing fees assuming a wonderful year-round 100% load factor. It's fare to speculate that EI would be a bit of a disruptor and would need to discount in order to capture share, so let's say their entry into the market brings the average price of a one-way ticket between DTW and Europe down to $600.

Option II

DL launches year-round nonstop service between DTW and DUB with a 757 that has 180 seats. Assuming the same wonderful 100% year round load factor and the same take off and landing fees, this DL service provides the city of Detroit with $360 per day in take off and landing fees. That's 50% more than what the EI service provided. However, in that DL would be less of a disruptor let's say their service keeps the average price of a one-way ticket between DTW and Europe at $800, which is 33% higher than where EI would bring it.

Question

That was an intentionally super simple and hypothetical example, but my question is which do you choose? Do you sacrifice revenues to DTW for consumer affordability or do you take the DTW revenue stream knowing that prices for the consumer will remain higher? Trying to get a sense for where your priorities sit and what defines success for the airport and the community.
 
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klm617
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Re: Detroit air service discussion - 2018

Tue Oct 23, 2018 4:15 pm

winginit wrote:
klm617 wrote:
The issue is it's not in the best interest of the airport to have DL on Detroit Dublin. First off it will not stimulate the growth that EI will and secondly Delta would most likely operate it in the summer only while EI would probably operate the route year round. As long the airport leaves this EI opportunity on the table the more the traveling public of Detroit will lose out and the more that Delta will get a choke hold on this market making it even harder to get new service into Detroit. DL makes no sense on DTW-DUB just like BA makes no sense on DTW-LHR that is just more of the same this market needs diversity price wise and carrier wise to stimulate any kind of meaningful growth.


So I'm a bit confused as to how you value Detroit's interests. Which of the two hypothetical options would you prefer?

Option I

EI launches year-round nonstop service between DTW and DUB with a 321. We'll say that 321 has 120 seats just for an easy example. To keep things simple let's just say that the city of Detroit collects $1 per passenger in take off and landing fees, so this service provides $240 per day to the city of Detroit in the form of take-off or landing fees assuming a wonderful year-round 100% load factor. It's fare to speculate that EI would be a bit of a disruptor and would need to discount in order to capture share, so let's say their entry into the market brings the average price of a one-way ticket between DTW and Europe down to $600.

Option II

DL launches year-round nonstop service between DTW and DUB with a 757 that has 180 seats. Assuming the same wonderful 100% year round load factor and the same take off and landing fees, this DL service provides the city of Detroit with $360 per day in take off and landing fees. That's 50% more than what the EI service provided. However, in that DL would be less of a disruptor let's say their service keeps the average price of a one-way ticket between DTW and Europe at $800, which is 33% higher than where EI would bring it.

Question

That was an intentionally super simple and hypothetical example, but my question is which do you choose? Do you sacrifice revenues to DTW for consumer affordability or do you take the DTW revenue stream knowing that prices for the consumer will remain higher? Trying to get a sense for where your priorities sit and what defines success for the airport and the community.


The simple answer is EI because we all know Delta is not going to operate the route year round where EI would not to mention that DTW would be the end destination for EI bringing more dollars into the Detroit area directly on a Delta DTW-DUB flight there would be a portion of those traveling onto other destination and the Detroit would not have access to those travel dollars. We also don't know the capacity of the EI A321 as I'm sure it's more than 120 passengers as the WOW A321 carry almost 200 with a premium cabin so again EI is the better fit for DTW. There is a lot more to the equation than your black and white example
the truth does matter, guys. too bad it's often quite subjective. the truth is beyond the mere facts and figures. it's beyond good and bad, right and wrong...
 
winginit
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Re: Detroit air service discussion - 2018

Tue Oct 23, 2018 4:58 pm

klm617 wrote:
The simple answer is EI because we all know Delta is not going to operate the route year round where EI would not to mention that DTW would be the end destination for EI bringing more dollars into the Detroit area directly on a Delta DTW-DUB flight there would be a portion of those traveling onto other destination and the Detroit would not have access to those travel dollars. We also don't know the capacity of the EI A321 as I'm sure it's more than 120 passengers as the WOW A321 carry almost 200 with a premium cabin so again EI is the better fit for DTW. There is a lot more to the equation than your black and white example


You've seemingly convoluted my simplistic example there so I'll ask outright:

I have a dollar, and I can give it to the DTW airport in the form of a landing fee, a DTW-based small business owner, or in the pocket of someone wanting to travel from DTW to Europe. I can't split it.

Who would you prefer I give the dollar to?
 
kavok
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Re: Detroit air service discussion - 2018

Tue Oct 23, 2018 5:29 pm

winginit wrote:
klm617 wrote:
The issue is it's not in the best interest of the airport to have DL on Detroit Dublin. First off it will not stimulate the growth that EI will and secondly Delta would most likely operate it in the summer only while EI would probably operate the route year round. As long the airport leaves this EI opportunity on the table the more the traveling public of Detroit will lose out and the more that Delta will get a choke hold on this market making it even harder to get new service into Detroit. DL makes no sense on DTW-DUB just like BA makes no sense on DTW-LHR that is just more of the same this market needs diversity price wise and carrier wise to stimulate any kind of meaningful growth.


So I'm a bit confused as to how you value Detroit's interests. Which of the two hypothetical options would you prefer?

Option I

EI launches year-round nonstop service between DTW and DUB with a 321. We'll say that 321 has 120 seats just for an easy example. To keep things simple let's just say that the city of Detroit collects $1 per passenger in take off and landing fees, so this service provides $240 per day to the city of Detroit in the form of take-off or landing fees assuming a wonderful year-round 100% load factor. It's fare to speculate that EI would be a bit of a disruptor and would need to discount in order to capture share, so let's say their entry into the market brings the average price of a one-way ticket between DTW and Europe down to $600.

Option II

DL launches year-round nonstop service between DTW and DUB with a 757 that has 180 seats. Assuming the same wonderful 100% year round load factor and the same take off and landing fees, this DL service provides the city of Detroit with $360 per day in take off and landing fees. That's 50% more than what the EI service provided. However, in that DL would be less of a disruptor let's say their service keeps the average price of a one-way ticket between DTW and Europe at $800, which is 33% higher than where EI would bring it.

Question

That was an intentionally super simple and hypothetical example, but my question is which do you choose? Do you sacrifice revenues to DTW for consumer affordability or do you take the DTW revenue stream knowing that prices for the consumer will remain higher? Trying to get a sense for where your priorities sit and what defines success for the airport and the community.



I agree EI is better for the region, whereas more DL is better in some regards. Here are the pros/cons I see for each:

Pros favoring EI on DTW-DUB

1- As mentioned, EI via DUB provides much better connection opportunities to Scotland and other UK secondary cities that are frustrating to get to via SkyTeam currently. (And yes, connecting in NYC qualifies as frustrating).

2- EI brings competition, which lowers the cost of TATL flying for other routes as well. If nothing else, it provides a somewhat lower cost option that could stimulate more traffic.

3- EI adds another carrier to the DTW list. And while that list mostly just exists for bragging rights, a longer list does mean more carriers. And more carriers gives the impression that the airport is “open for business” and “a good place to serve”, which long term could attract additional carriers down the road.


Pros favoring DL on DTW-DUB

A- Having a DL DTW-DUB flight includes a portion of passengers connecting in DTW from other places. Those DL connecting pax are likely to spend money in the DTW restaurant/shops, which is money that would be spent elsewhere if they didn’t connect in DTW. Arguably DTW O/D pax are less likely to spend money in the airport, compared to connecting pax.

B- A large portion of the DTW corporate base is loyal to DL. A DTW-DUB flight would be a nice addition in terms of flights those FF pax could use their DL FF miles on.

C- This is objective, but most would agree DL offers a much better soft product than EI. EI has a lot of website, baggage, and ticketing technical issues. Frankly, there is a reason DL service cost more (and it is not entirely competition related). Long story short, most people would find that DL offers DTW pax a better onboard experience on the way to/fromDublin.


So those are the pros and cons I see. But overall, I feel the EI pros outweigh the DL pros for the region.
 
MastaHanky
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Re: Detroit air service discussion - 2018

Tue Oct 23, 2018 5:35 pm

kavok wrote:
1- As mentioned, EI via DUB provides much better connection opportunities to Scotland and other UK secondary cities that are frustrating to get to via SkyTeam currently. (And yes, connecting in NYC qualifies as frustrating).


How is it more frustrating to connect to a secondary city in AMS than it is in DUB? KL actually serves more secondary destinations in the UK than EI does.
 
kavok
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Re: Detroit air service discussion - 2018

Tue Oct 23, 2018 5:44 pm

MastaHanky wrote:
kavok wrote:
1- As mentioned, EI via DUB provides much better connection opportunities to Scotland and other UK secondary cities that are frustrating to get to via SkyTeam currently. (And yes, connecting in NYC qualifies as frustrating).


How is it more frustrating to connect to a secondary city in AMS than it is in DUB? KL actually serves more secondary destinations in the UK than EI does.


It is frustrating because you are backtracking connecting at AMS/CDG, or especially ATL. Most DTW-AMS flights fly over a portion of the UK en route. Maybe it is just me, but I find it frustrating to look out my window, see my final destination 30,000 feet below, and know I still have to make a connection in AMS to get on another flight and come back.
 
N592NW
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Re: Detroit air service discussion - 2018

Tue Oct 23, 2018 6:19 pm

jetlanta wrote:
ATL is GRR's #1 O&D market.

I agree with the point you were making. However, while you are right about the most non stop capacity being between GRR and ATL, NYC is GRR’s #1 market in terms of PDEW outside of q1.
 
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klm617
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Re: Detroit air service discussion - 2018

Tue Oct 23, 2018 6:30 pm

winginit wrote:
klm617 wrote:
The simple answer is EI because we all know Delta is not going to operate the route year round where EI would not to mention that DTW would be the end destination for EI bringing more dollars into the Detroit area directly on a Delta DTW-DUB flight there would be a portion of those traveling onto other destination and the Detroit would not have access to those travel dollars. We also don't know the capacity of the EI A321 as I'm sure it's more than 120 passengers as the WOW A321 carry almost 200 with a premium cabin so again EI is the better fit for DTW. There is a lot more to the equation than your black and white example


You've seemingly convoluted my simplistic example there so I'll ask outright:

I have a dollar, and I can give it to the DTW airport in the form of a landing fee, a DTW-based small business owner, or in the pocket of someone wanting to travel from DTW to Europe. I can't split it.

Who would you prefer I give the dollar to?


I would want the airport to get that dollar.
the truth does matter, guys. too bad it's often quite subjective. the truth is beyond the mere facts and figures. it's beyond good and bad, right and wrong...
 
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klm617
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Re: Detroit air service discussion - 2018

Tue Oct 23, 2018 7:40 pm

kavok wrote:
MastaHanky wrote:
kavok wrote:
1- As mentioned, EI via DUB provides much better connection opportunities to Scotland and other UK secondary cities that are frustrating to get to via SkyTeam currently. (And yes, connecting in NYC qualifies as frustrating).


How is it more frustrating to connect to a secondary city in AMS than it is in DUB? KL actually serves more secondary destinations in the UK than EI does.


It is frustrating because you are backtracking connecting at AMS/CDG, or especially ATL. Most DTW-AMS flights fly over a portion of the UK en route. Maybe it is just me, but I find it frustrating to look out my window, see my final destination 30,000 feet below, and know I still have to make a connection in AMS to get on another flight and come back.


I agree with you 100% the back tracking is just ridicules in my eyes. But through consolidation we have created carriers so powerful that they can now manipulate the traffic flow any ways they want with the customer having very little choice in some cases but to deal with it.
the truth does matter, guys. too bad it's often quite subjective. the truth is beyond the mere facts and figures. it's beyond good and bad, right and wrong...
 
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klm617
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Re: Detroit air service discussion - 2018

Tue Oct 23, 2018 10:17 pm

winginit wrote:
klm617 wrote:
The issue is it's not in the best interest of the airport to have DL on Detroit Dublin. First off it will not stimulate the growth that EI will and secondly Delta would most likely operate it in the summer only while EI would probably operate the route year round. As long the airport leaves this EI opportunity on the table the more the traveling public of Detroit will lose out and the more that Delta will get a choke hold on this market making it even harder to get new service into Detroit. DL makes no sense on DTW-DUB just like BA makes no sense on DTW-LHR that is just more of the same this market needs diversity price wise and carrier wise to stimulate any kind of meaningful growth.


So I'm a bit confused as to how you value Detroit's interests. Which of the two hypothetical options would you prefer?

Option I

EI launches year-round nonstop service between DTW and DUB with a 321. We'll say that 321 has 120 seats just for an easy example. To keep things simple let's just say that the city of Detroit collects $1 per passenger in take off and landing fees, so this service provides $240 per day to the city of Detroit in the form of take-off or landing fees assuming a wonderful year-round 100% load factor. It's fare to speculate that EI would be a bit of a disruptor and would need to discount in order to capture share, so let's say their entry into the market brings the average price of a one-way ticket between DTW and Europe down to $600.

Option II

DL launches year-round nonstop service between DTW and DUB with a 757 that has 180 seats. Assuming the same wonderful 100% year round load factor and the same take off and landing fees, this DL service provides the city of Detroit with $360 per day in take off and landing fees. That's 50% more than what the EI service provided. However, in that DL would be less of a disruptor let's say their service keeps the average price of a one-way ticket between DTW and Europe at $800, which is 33% higher than where EI would bring it.

Question

That was an intentionally super simple and hypothetical example, but my question is which do you choose? Do you sacrifice revenues to DTW for consumer affordability or do you take the DTW revenue stream knowing that prices for the consumer will remain higher? Trying to get a sense for where your priorities sit and what defines success for the airport and the community.



So just out of curiosity I looked up the seating the best Delta 757 seats 199 only 15 more than the EI A321LR with that being said and the fact that EI is more likely to offer year round flights every one wins if EI operates the route. Customers get price relief better in connections to all of the UK and at the price of maybe 15 seats depending which 757 Delta would use everyone wins in this equation except Delta who would price gouge the market as it is so prone to doing plus eliminating capacity some where when it would add a flight from DTW-DUB so there would be no real benefit gained through landing fees. EI is additional capacity with out a capacity cut to balance out the new service to keep growth flat in this market.
the truth does matter, guys. too bad it's often quite subjective. the truth is beyond the mere facts and figures. it's beyond good and bad, right and wrong...
 
winginit
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Re: Detroit air service discussion - 2018

Tue Oct 23, 2018 10:20 pm

klm617 wrote:
winginit wrote:
klm617 wrote:
The issue is it's not in the best interest of the airport to have DL on Detroit Dublin. First off it will not stimulate the growth that EI will and secondly Delta would most likely operate it in the summer only while EI would probably operate the route year round. As long the airport leaves this EI opportunity on the table the more the traveling public of Detroit will lose out and the more that Delta will get a choke hold on this market making it even harder to get new service into Detroit. DL makes no sense on DTW-DUB just like BA makes no sense on DTW-LHR that is just more of the same this market needs diversity price wise and carrier wise to stimulate any kind of meaningful growth.


So I'm a bit confused as to how you value Detroit's interests. Which of the two hypothetical options would you prefer?

Option I

EI launches year-round nonstop service between DTW and DUB with a 321. We'll say that 321 has 120 seats just for an easy example. To keep things simple let's just say that the city of Detroit collects $1 per passenger in take off and landing fees, so this service provides $240 per day to the city of Detroit in the form of take-off or landing fees assuming a wonderful year-round 100% load factor. It's fare to speculate that EI would be a bit of a disruptor and would need to discount in order to capture share, so let's say their entry into the market brings the average price of a one-way ticket between DTW and Europe down to $600.

Option II

DL launches year-round nonstop service between DTW and DUB with a 757 that has 180 seats. Assuming the same wonderful 100% year round load factor and the same take off and landing fees, this DL service provides the city of Detroit with $360 per day in take off and landing fees. That's 50% more than what the EI service provided. However, in that DL would be less of a disruptor let's say their service keeps the average price of a one-way ticket between DTW and Europe at $800, which is 33% higher than where EI would bring it.

Question

That was an intentionally super simple and hypothetical example, but my question is which do you choose? Do you sacrifice revenues to DTW for consumer affordability or do you take the DTW revenue stream knowing that prices for the consumer will remain higher? Trying to get a sense for where your priorities sit and what defines success for the airport and the community.



So just out of curiosity I looked up the seating the best Delta 757 seats 199 only 15 more than the EI A321LR with that being said and the fact that EI is more likely to offer year round flights every one wins if EI operates the route. Customers get price relief better in connections to all of the UK and at the price of maybe 15 seats depending which 757 Delta would use everyone wins in this equation except Delta who would price gouge the market as it is so prone to doing plus eliminating capacity some where when it would add a flight from DTW-DUB so there would be no real benefit gained through landing fees. EI is additional capacity with out a capacity cut to balance out the new service to keep growth flat in this market.


It was just an example. I literally made those seating numbers up to understand whether you valued airport revenue over average ticket pricing.

Also, let's point out that you have no idea whether EI would be more likely to offer year round service (if they were to offer service, which in and of itself is a toss up) when compared to a hypothetical Delta flight. You're speculating.
Last edited by winginit on Tue Oct 23, 2018 10:21 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
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klm617
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Re: Detroit air service discussion - 2018

Tue Oct 23, 2018 10:21 pm

jetlanta wrote:
I'm surprised that I haven't seen a mention of Glen Hauenstein's comments on last week's investor call:

Edward Russell, Flightglobal

Edward: I wanted to ask about your performance in Minneapolis. Detroit is very strong in the quarter, however, I've seen some capacity reductions there in connecting markets like [garbled] and Peoria. Can you talk about the strength there and why you're pulling out of some of those connecting markets?

Glen: We are growing Detroit. As a matter of fact, we have significant growth in Detroit. We're adding new markets. I believe, in November, we added Detroit to San Jose and last year we added Detroit to Santa Ana, and so we're trying to make our schedules more relevant to people in Detroit to places people in Detroit want to go, focusing on the top 50 cities that people in Detroit want to go. And to the extent that regional – and to the extent that we are not making money into regional cities, we're rationalizing that capacity out of the network in some of those cities to look at the number of people who went from Detroit to Peoria on any given day, it was probably less than 10. And there are alternatives in the region. So streamlining, making the network more efficient and providing the people in Detroit with places they want to go. And we're very excited. Ed last month announced the new services from Detroit to Honolulu. And so we have – we are growing Detroit and we're really committed to Detroit, and we're excited about 2019 because there's going to be quite a bit more service into Detroit.

I'd expect most of this to be frequency growth and up gauging of aircraft. But I've been expecting this for a long time. DTW is cash cow for Delta, now that the NYC/LAX/SEA growth initiatives are slowing down and a significant portion of ATL's up gauging is complete, the focus will shift to the interior fortress hubs.


I seen this but as always Ed's words are nothing more than propaganda and are pretty meaningless. While he says Detroit is in line for international growth his company announces BOS-EDI and Delta's intention to start MSP-PVG. I assume he is talking about international growth by the addition of 4 additional weekly Detroit-London trips. Quite a bit to me is at least 5%.
the truth does matter, guys. too bad it's often quite subjective. the truth is beyond the mere facts and figures. it's beyond good and bad, right and wrong...
 
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klm617
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Re: Detroit air service discussion - 2018

Tue Oct 23, 2018 10:23 pm

winginit wrote:
klm617 wrote:
winginit wrote:

So I'm a bit confused as to how you value Detroit's interests. Which of the two hypothetical options would you prefer?

Option I

EI launches year-round nonstop service between DTW and DUB with a 321. We'll say that 321 has 120 seats just for an easy example. To keep things simple let's just say that the city of Detroit collects $1 per passenger in take off and landing fees, so this service provides $240 per day to the city of Detroit in the form of take-off or landing fees assuming a wonderful year-round 100% load factor. It's fare to speculate that EI would be a bit of a disruptor and would need to discount in order to capture share, so let's say their entry into the market brings the average price of a one-way ticket between DTW and Europe down to $600.

Option II

DL launches year-round nonstop service between DTW and DUB with a 757 that has 180 seats. Assuming the same wonderful 100% year round load factor and the same take off and landing fees, this DL service provides the city of Detroit with $360 per day in take off and landing fees. That's 50% more than what the EI service provided. However, in that DL would be less of a disruptor let's say their service keeps the average price of a one-way ticket between DTW and Europe at $800, which is 33% higher than where EI would bring it.

Question

That was an intentionally super simple and hypothetical example, but my question is which do you choose? Do you sacrifice revenues to DTW for consumer affordability or do you take the DTW revenue stream knowing that prices for the consumer will remain higher? Trying to get a sense for where your priorities sit and what defines success for the airport and the community.



So just out of curiosity I looked up the seating the best Delta 757 seats 199 only 15 more than the EI A321LR with that being said and the fact that EI is more likely to offer year round flights every one wins if EI operates the route. Customers get price relief better in connections to all of the UK and at the price of maybe 15 seats depending which 757 Delta would use everyone wins in this equation except Delta who would price gouge the market as it is so prone to doing plus eliminating capacity some where when it would add a flight from DTW-DUB so there would be no real benefit gained through landing fees. EI is additional capacity with out a capacity cut to balance out the new service to keep growth flat in this market.


It was just an example. I literally made those seating numbers up.

Also, let's point out that you have no idea whether EI is more likely to offer year round service when compared to a hypothetical Delta flight. You're speculating.


Every market in North America that EI serves is year round and every international addition that Delta makes is summer only believe what you like.
the truth does matter, guys. too bad it's often quite subjective. the truth is beyond the mere facts and figures. it's beyond good and bad, right and wrong...
 
MastaHanky
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Re: Detroit air service discussion - 2018

Tue Oct 23, 2018 10:37 pm

kavok wrote:
It is frustrating because you are backtracking connecting at AMS/CDG, or especially ATL. Most DTW-AMS flights fly over a portion of the UK en route. Maybe it is just me, but I find it frustrating to look out my window, see my final destination 30,000 feet below, and know I still have to make a connection in AMS to get on another flight and come back.


Checking random flights from JFK to random cities in the UK, I found almost all of them were within an hour of each other connecting in DUB vs AMS. I get the mental frustration of the backtracking, but the actual time flown is minimally different. Not to mention the superior amount of service KLM offers to these destinations if you're a business traveler who needs some flexibility.

But if you're a backpacker who doesn't mind a non-flexible schedule, I see the appeal of EI.

klm617 wrote:
I agree with you 100% the back tracking is just ridicules in my eyes. But through consolidation we have created carriers so powerful that they can now manipulate the traffic flow any ways they want with the customer having very little choice in some cases but to deal with it.


Then you must strongly support the launch of MSP-ICN and MSP-PVG so people traveling from Indianapolis, St. Louis, Milwaukee or Des Moines don't have to backtrack to DTW?
 
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klm617
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Re: Detroit air service discussion - 2018

Tue Oct 23, 2018 10:48 pm

MastaHanky wrote:
kavok wrote:
It is frustrating because you are backtracking connecting at AMS/CDG, or especially ATL. Most DTW-AMS flights fly over a portion of the UK en route. Maybe it is just me, but I find it frustrating to look out my window, see my final destination 30,000 feet below, and know I still have to make a connection in AMS to get on another flight and come back.


Checking random flights from JFK to random cities in the UK, I found almost all of them were within an hour of each other connecting in DUB vs AMS. I get the mental frustration of the backtracking, but the actual time flown is minimally different. Not to mention the superior amount of service KLM offers to these destinations if you're a business traveler who needs some flexibility.

But if you're a backpacker who doesn't mind a non-flexible schedule, I see the appeal of EI.

klm617 wrote:
I agree with you 100% the back tracking is just ridicules in my eyes. But through consolidation we have created carriers so powerful that they can now manipulate the traffic flow any ways they want with the customer having very little choice in some cases but to deal with it.


Then you must strongly support the launch of MSP-ICN and MSP-PVG so people traveling from Indianapolis, St. Louis, Milwaukee or Des Moines don't have to backtrack to DTW?


Absolutely if I live in DSM there is no way I'm going to fly backwards to Detroit. But STL, IND and MKE are not out of the way to connect in Detroit like AMS would be if I was traveling to BHX, GLA and the like. People misunderstand me a lot I'm not against PVG/ICN to MSP what I'm against is the lack of expansion in the Detroit market while it grows every other city in it's network. I am all for new flights but not at the expense of another market that's my frustration. As a business traveler more often than not price means nothing to you as you are not footing the bill for your travel EI brings price relief with a middle product between DL and WW
the truth does matter, guys. too bad it's often quite subjective. the truth is beyond the mere facts and figures. it's beyond good and bad, right and wrong...
 
winginit
Posts: 3071
Joined: Sat Feb 23, 2013 9:23 pm

Re: Detroit air service discussion - 2018

Tue Oct 23, 2018 11:14 pm

klm617 wrote:
People misunderstand me a lot I'm not against PVG/ICN to MSP what I'm against is the lack of expansion in the Detroit market while it grows every other city in it's network. I am all for new flights but not at the expense of another market that's my frustration.


Is it not logical at this point for Delta to grow MSP at a rate that is faster than DTW?

Measured by Delta ASMs, DTW is about 5% larger than MSP as a hub even though the GDP of Detroit Metro ($261B) and Minneapolis Metro ($260B) are virtually identical (of note is that as recently as 2001, Metro Detroit's GDP was a full 30% more than Metro Minneapolis' GDP). Yes, Detroit Metro (4.3M) has about 20% more people than Minneapolis Metro (3.6M), but as has been discussed, the Minneapolis Metro area is growing at a rate of +7.5% compared to +0.39% for Detroit Metro.

Point being, is Delta's expansion in MSP, which seems to be driving you absolutely crazy, not an entirely logical rightsizing of the MSP hub to account for the region's relative economic growth?
 
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klm617
Posts: 5467
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Re: Detroit air service discussion - 2018

Wed Oct 24, 2018 12:05 am

winginit wrote:
klm617 wrote:
People misunderstand me a lot I'm not against PVG/ICN to MSP what I'm against is the lack of expansion in the Detroit market while it grows every other city in it's network. I am all for new flights but not at the expense of another market that's my frustration.


Is it not logical at this point for Delta to grow MSP at a rate that is faster than DTW?

Measured by Delta ASMs, DTW is about 5% larger than MSP as a hub even though the GDP of Detroit Metro ($261B) and Minneapolis Metro ($260B) are virtually identical (of note is that as recently as 2001, Metro Detroit's GDP was a full 30% more than Metro Minneapolis' GDP). Yes, Detroit Metro (4.3M) has about 20% more people than Minneapolis Metro (3.6M), but as has been discussed, the Minneapolis Metro area is growing at a rate of +7.5% compared to +0.39% for Detroit Metro.

Point being, is Delta's expansion in MSP, which seems to be driving you absolutely crazy, not an entirely logical rightsizing of the MSP hub to account for the region's relative economic growth?


According to that logic then Delta needs to be shrinking Atlanta to right size that operation relative to the GDP and population compared to DTW and MSP then to fit your theory because it's batting way over it's weight. Remember DTW has be relatively unchanged since the economic down turn of 2009 so if it could hold it's own then then surely should see some significant growth with the economy moving in a positive direction. To really get a more clear picture you really need to analyze the data void of the Detroit City because those people that live within the city are very unlikely to fly any where plus you have to include the data for Southwest Ontario. So while the lines maybe more definite as far as the MSP market grows they is a lot of grey area as far as Detroit goes. I am not against growth in the MSP market but not always at the expense of Detroit which is the Delta business plan in a nut shell. I agree that the more travel options that the customer has the better it is but the same should be true where Detroit is concerned. Come on Delta can justify BOS-EDI but not DTW-MAN.
the truth does matter, guys. too bad it's often quite subjective. the truth is beyond the mere facts and figures. it's beyond good and bad, right and wrong...
 
winginit
Posts: 3071
Joined: Sat Feb 23, 2013 9:23 pm

Re: Detroit air service discussion - 2018

Wed Oct 24, 2018 4:18 pm

klm617 wrote:
According to that logic then Delta needs to be shrinking Atlanta to right size that operation relative to the GDP and population compared to DTW and MSP then to fit your theory because it's batting way over it's weight. Remember DTW has be relatively unchanged since the economic down turn of 2009 so if it could hold it's own then then surely should see some significant growth with the economy moving in a positive direction. To really get a more clear picture you really need to analyze the data void of the Detroit City because those people that live within the city are very unlikely to fly any where plus you have to include the data for Southwest Ontario. So while the lines maybe more definite as far as the MSP market grows they is a lot of grey area as far as Detroit goes. I am not against growth in the MSP market but not always at the expense of Detroit which is the Delta business plan in a nut shell. I agree that the more travel options that the customer has the better it is but the same should be true where Detroit is concerned. Come on Delta can justify BOS-EDI but not DTW-MAN.


If we're going to go all the way back to 2009 I think we should probably bring some facts to light as this becomes a different argument entirely. You can tell me which hub has a bigger growth grievance with DL given both Metro areas now have identical GDPs: DTW vs MSP


Metropolitan Statistical Area Population, % Growth 2010-2018

DTW: +0.39%
MSP: +7.52%

Delta Capacity measured by Nondirectional Seats in the Market, % Growth 2010-2018

DTW: -1.3%
MSP: -2.4%

So even though Metro MSP has the same GDP and a rapidly growing population, the merged Delta has actually reduced capacity at MSP more than they have at DTW if we compare all the way back to 2009. That being the case, if you're going to tell me that MSP doesn't to some degree deserve to grow at the expense of DTW I'm going to tell you to go fly a kite.
 
Luke1994
Posts: 45
Joined: Thu May 25, 2017 11:40 pm

Re: Detroit air service discussion - 2018

Wed Oct 24, 2018 4:29 pm

Funny that you post MSA and ignore CSA, where Detroit has a 1,300,000+ edge on Minneapolis, and that’s excluding Windsor, which is right next door. So in reality, it’s closer to 5,700,000 v. 4,000,000 overall.

At MSP’s current growth rate, it would take about 50 years to equal the Detroit area in population. So yes, MSP is punching above its weight class, and has been for some time now. MSP benefits from great location, and that allows for fairly short connections on East-West routes. It’s also a nice facility and former home of NW, so it has every right to be a hub and important cog in Delta’s machine. And so does Detroit.

Let’s please move past the Detroit v. Minneapolis dick measuring contest, yeah? It’s clogging up this thread and the discussion isn’t really going anywhere.
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klakzky123
Posts: 691
Joined: Mon Jul 04, 2016 4:05 am

Re: Detroit air service discussion - 2018

Wed Oct 24, 2018 5:06 pm

Luke1994 wrote:
Funny that you post MSA and ignore CSA, where Detroit has a 1,300,000+ edge on Minneapolis, and that’s excluding Windsor, which is right next door. So in reality, it’s closer to 5,700,000 v. 4,000,000 overall.

At MSP’s current growth rate, it would take about 50 years to equal the Detroit area in population. So yes, MSP is punching above its weight class, and has been for some time now. MSP benefits from great location, and that allows for fairly short connections on East-West routes. It’s also a nice facility and former home of NW, so it has every right to be a hub and important cog in Delta’s machine. And so does Detroit.

Let’s please move past the Detroit v. Minneapolis dick measuring contest, yeah? It’s clogging up this thread and the discussion isn’t really going anywhere.


Not to quibble but CSAs are an OMB creation that consists of multiple MSAs with some (many cases low) levels of labor interconnectivity. If you're comparing the Detroit Metro to the Twin Cities metro, you are comparing MSAs.

Comparing the Twin Cities CSA to the Detroit CSA just indicates that the Twin Cities does not have any other major MSAs in its proximity. But that does little to disabuse the notion that the actual Detroit MSA is facing population stagnation and bringing in adjacent MSAs to buttress the population doesn't actually improve your case.

But if you want to claim Ann Arbor, Flint etc.. are part of Detroit to prove a point, then sure. No one in Minneapolis would consider St Cloud part of the Twin Cities but the CSA technically does. Again, its an OMB creation to evaluate labor statistics. MSAs are a measure of a city and its suburbs. It is literally intended to define a metro area.

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