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atcsundevil
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Re: DC/VA/MD Aviation Thread - 2018

Tue Jan 09, 2018 6:45 pm

qf789 wrote:
atcsundevil wrote:
qf789 wrote:
QR brings QSuite to IAD for first time

https://www.qatarairways.com/en/press-r ... s-releases

Thanks for sharing. It makes sense they'd add it to IAD after JFK. They were here long before Emirates or Etihad...that makes them pretty well established, but considering Emirates normally sends an A380 and Etihad their 787-9, Qatar would want to make sure they've got their most competitive product flying here.


Since you mentioned EY, here's a photo on approach to IAD in the snow

Image

https://twitter.com/EtihadAirways/statu ... 1420913664

Wow! I'm guessing that's from around the Air and Space Museum. Anything going to 1R or 30 makes for a pretty awesome spotting.
 
shaneam12
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Re: DC/VA/MD Aviation Thread - 2018

Sun Jan 14, 2018 11:49 pm

I was just browsing around today and noticed that LATAM has closed bookings for IAD-LIM flights after February 28, 2018. Could they possibly be leaving the market? I do not recall seeing any news articles or any other indications that they are leaving. They started service back in 2016 IIRC with 3x weekly, increasing to 4x weekly during the summer.
 
CapitalAvGeek
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Re: DC/VA/MD Aviation Thread - 2018

Mon Jan 15, 2018 1:50 am

shaneam12 wrote:
I was just browsing around today and noticed that LATAM has closed bookings for IAD-LIM flights after February 28, 2018. Could they possibly be leaving the market? I do not recall seeing any news articles or any other indications that they are leaving. They started service back in 2016 IIRC with 3x weekly, increasing to 4x weekly during the summer.

Yes, this news is unfortunately true. There has been no formal announcement, but I found LATAM responding to a question about the airline leaving on Twitter.

https://mobile.twitter.com/TheForwardCa ... 3037524998
 
blockski
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Re: DC/VA/MD Aviation Thread - 2018

Mon Jan 15, 2018 4:48 pm

The agenda and documents for MWAA's January Board of Directors meeting have been posted:
http://www.mwaa.com/about/january-17-20 ... e-meetings

Some fun stuff in here.

The usual passenger statistics:
http://www.mwaa.com/sites/default/files ... eports.pdf
IAD is up 4.2% year to date; DCA is up 1.7%.

Two Silver Line construction updates (with lots of pictures):
http://www.mwaa.com/sites/default/files ... 0_2017.pdf
http://www.mwaa.com/sites/default/files ... update.pdf
The entire project is now 76% complete.

Air Service Development Report:
http://www.mwaa.com/sites/default/files ... report.pdf
This hits on a number of things discussed here already: LATAM is leaving IAD; some new service is also coming. One I didn't know about was that Copa will go 3x Daily IAD-PTY starting in June 2018.

MWAA also expects Dulles to continue to grow - scheduled seats are up 4.6% year over year for the first quarter at IAD; DCA expected to be flat.

Two updates on DCA's "Project Journey" (which is a rather silly name for the DCA expansion):
http://www.mwaa.com/sites/default/files ... ourney.pdf
http://www.mwaa.com/sites/default/files ... ourney.pdf

Demolition is 88% complete; Apron reconfiguration has only just started (2% complete).

Some noticeable changes will be coming as a part of the enabling work for the new security checkpoints: both the Delta and AA check-in kiosks near the Metro bridges will be relocated soon.
 
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Blimpie
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Re: DC/VA/MD Aviation Thread - 2018

Tue Jan 16, 2018 2:16 pm

atcsundevil wrote:
qf789 wrote:
atcsundevil wrote:
Thanks for sharing. It makes sense they'd add it to IAD after JFK. They were here long before Emirates or Etihad...that makes them pretty well established, but considering Emirates normally sends an A380 and Etihad their 787-9, Qatar would want to make sure they've got their most competitive product flying here.


Since you mentioned EY, here's a photo on approach to IAD in the snow

Image

https://twitter.com/EtihadAirways/statu ... 1420913664

Wow! I'm guessing that's from around the Air and Space Museum. Anything going to 1R or 30 makes for a pretty awesome spotting.


It will blow your mind. 1R is my fav, 30, is a bit tough.
Now get the hell off of my lawn your dang kids!
 
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BWIAirport
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Re: DC/VA/MD Aviation Thread - 2018

Tue Jan 16, 2018 3:05 pm

Side topic on the smaller MD airports, HGR, SBY, and even FDK

Could any of those three support something small like a daily DL CRJ2 to JFK and/or ATL? Frederick, with its proximity to Baltimore and lack of any commercial service history, might be unrealistic, and Salisbury is more of a seasonal destination. But I think Hagerstown, being about a 2 hour drive from BWI, with a solid business and retail environment, G4 service to SFD/PIE and 9X (Southern Airways Express) to BWI and PIT, and a history of juggling destinations (Air Midwest, US Airways Express, Cape Air), could certainly support minimal service from a subsidiary of one of the big 3.
Worth mentioning the airport lost qualification for Essential Air Service because it's within 70 miles of both IAD and BWI.
SWA, UAL, DAL, AWE, ASA, TRS, DLH, CLH, AFR, BAW, EIN, AAL, FFT | E190 DC94 CRJ2 B712 B733 B737 B738 B739 B744 B752 B753 B762 B77W A319 A320 A20N A321 A333 A343 A388 MD88
 
jplatts
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Re: DC/VA/MD Aviation Thread - 2018

Tue Jan 16, 2018 3:27 pm

BWIAirport wrote:
Side topic on the smaller MD airports, HGR, SBY, and even FDK

Could any of those three support something small like a daily DL CRJ2 to JFK and/or ATL? Frederick, with its proximity to Baltimore and lack of any commercial service history, might be unrealistic, and Salisbury is more of a seasonal destination. But I think Hagerstown, being about a 2 hour drive from BWI, with a solid business and retail environment, G4 service to SFD/PIE and 9X (Southern Airways Express) to BWI and PIT, and a history of juggling destinations (Air Midwest, US Airways Express, Cape Air), could certainly support minimal service from a subsidiary of one of the big 3.
Worth mentioning the airport lost qualification for Essential Air Service because it's within 70 miles of both IAD and BWI.


Frederick and Hagerstown are actually both closer to IAD than to DCA or BWI as Frederick is only 42 miles from IAD and as Hagerstown is 64 miles from IAD.
 
IADCA
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Re: DC/VA/MD Aviation Thread - 2018

Tue Jan 16, 2018 3:52 pm

jplatts wrote:
BWIAirport wrote:
Side topic on the smaller MD airports, HGR, SBY, and even FDK

Could any of those three support something small like a daily DL CRJ2 to JFK and/or ATL? Frederick, with its proximity to Baltimore and lack of any commercial service history, might be unrealistic, and Salisbury is more of a seasonal destination. But I think Hagerstown, being about a 2 hour drive from BWI, with a solid business and retail environment, G4 service to SFD/PIE and 9X (Southern Airways Express) to BWI and PIT, and a history of juggling destinations (Air Midwest, US Airways Express, Cape Air), could certainly support minimal service from a subsidiary of one of the big 3.
Worth mentioning the airport lost qualification for Essential Air Service because it's within 70 miles of both IAD and BWI.


Frederick and Hagerstown are actually both closer to IAD than to DCA or BWI as Frederick is only 42 miles from IAD and as Hagerstown is 64 miles from IAD.


And a route to get there that avoids dealing with DC or 70/95/BW Parkway traffic.
 
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atcsundevil
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Re: DC/VA/MD Aviation Thread - 2018

Tue Jan 16, 2018 5:21 pm

BWIAirport wrote:
Side topic on the smaller MD airports, HGR, SBY, and even FDK

Could any of those three support something small like a daily DL CRJ2 to JFK and/or ATL? Frederick, with its proximity to Baltimore and lack of any commercial service history, might be unrealistic, and Salisbury is more of a seasonal destination. But I think Hagerstown, being about a 2 hour drive from BWI, with a solid business and retail environment, G4 service to SFD/PIE and 9X (Southern Airways Express) to BWI and PIT, and a history of juggling destinations (Air Midwest, US Airways Express, Cape Air), could certainly support minimal service from a subsidiary of one of the big 3.
Worth mentioning the airport lost qualification for Essential Air Service because it's within 70 miles of both IAD and BWI.

Hagerstown doesn't really have enough demand, and as mentioned, it's not that far from IAD. If any of those three airports mentioned were to get an ATL flight though (I would rule out JFK entirely), HGR would be the most likely, but I would still count it as unlikely. FDK doesn't have the infrastructure, never mind the drive to IAD or BWI is too close, so the infrastructure pretty much rules them out in my mind. SBY is one of the last routes to hang on to the PDT DH8C, which tells me they're really delaying the upgauge to the E145 for as long as possible because of low demand (although the E145 has been phasing in to SBY). With American well-established to CLT, I'm not sure there's much left for Delta.
 
estorilm
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Re: DC/VA/MD Aviation Thread - 2018

Wed Jan 17, 2018 2:02 pm

Slightly random, but I figured everyone in here would probably know the answer.

Can someone please tell me what the cargo aircraft are that I see flying around IAD on approach / departure fairly often? All I can tell from the distance is that it's a swept-wing cargo/transport, looks like C-17, A-400, or similar. I see them every few days (but am never actually looking for them!)

I recall that the German Luftwaffe flew regular cargo flights in/out of IAD a long time ago, there was always a big turboprop parked on the ramp as you left the departure level of the main terminal (forget what that ramp was called, I was just a kid..)
 
blockski
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Re: DC/VA/MD Aviation Thread - 2018

Wed Jan 17, 2018 2:23 pm

estorilm wrote:
Slightly random, but I figured everyone in here would probably know the answer.

Can someone please tell me what the cargo aircraft are that I see flying around IAD on approach / departure fairly often? All I can tell from the distance is that it's a swept-wing cargo/transport, looks like C-17, A-400, or similar. I see them every few days (but am never actually looking for them!)

I recall that the German Luftwaffe flew regular cargo flights in/out of IAD a long time ago, there was always a big turboprop parked on the ramp as you left the departure level of the main terminal (forget what that ramp was called, I was just a kid..)


I would guess it's an A400. The Luftwaffe still flies into IAD often. The German Military Representative has had a facility at IAD for decades; the original ground lease expired in 2016, and they signed a new ten-year deal with MWAA to continue their use of the IAD facility that year:
http://www.mwaa.com/sites/default/files ... g_2016.pdf

This is an older article, but I believe the GMR still has offices in Reston, VA not far from IAD, as well:
http://www.connectionnewspapers.com/new ... ince-1991/
 
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United787
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Re: DC/VA/MD Aviation Thread - 2018

Thu Jan 18, 2018 4:32 pm

Amazon just announced it's top 20 for it's 2nd headquarters. The Washington Metropolitan area scored 3 of the 20! If I were a betting man, I would start buying property in the area. This would be a major boost for IAD and maybe push UA into building a new concourse. Of course, I am from Chicago, so I am putting my chips here.
 
capitalflyer
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Re: DC/VA/MD Aviation Thread - 2018

Thu Jan 18, 2018 7:24 pm

AA has announced service from DCA to VPS, MYR, TLH, LIT, ILM, and MGM. No doubt all Eagle flights. Not sure what cuts were made to start this service.
 
estorilm
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Re: DC/VA/MD Aviation Thread - 2018

Thu Jan 18, 2018 7:53 pm

blockski wrote:
estorilm wrote:
Slightly random, but I figured everyone in here would probably know the answer.

Can someone please tell me what the cargo aircraft are that I see flying around IAD on approach / departure fairly often? All I can tell from the distance is that it's a swept-wing cargo/transport, looks like C-17, A-400, or similar. I see them every few days (but am never actually looking for them!)

I recall that the German Luftwaffe flew regular cargo flights in/out of IAD a long time ago, there was always a big turboprop parked on the ramp as you left the departure level of the main terminal (forget what that ramp was called, I was just a kid..)


I would guess it's an A400. The Luftwaffe still flies into IAD often. The German Military Representative has had a facility at IAD for decades; the original ground lease expired in 2016, and they signed a new ten-year deal with MWAA to continue their use of the IAD facility that year:
http://www.mwaa.com/sites/default/files ... g_2016.pdf

This is an older article, but I believe the GMR still has offices in Reston, VA not far from IAD, as well:
http://www.connectionnewspapers.com/new ... ince-1991/

Wonderful, thanks.

I'd love to see that thing! If only there was a reliable way to get a shot... really hate that I got stuck with such a poor airport for spotting. :)
 
capitalflyer
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Re: DC/VA/MD Aviation Thread - 2018

Fri Jan 19, 2018 4:33 pm

Any news on what is happening to the SY slot? There is some dispute on another thread whether this was an "extra" slot and might just be deleted by DOT or even whether SY had two slot pairs.

Slot proceedings are always fun, airlines submitting their applications, letters, pointed barbs back and forth via DOT.
 
capitalflyer
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Re: DC/VA/MD Aviation Thread - 2018

Tue Jan 23, 2018 7:44 pm

AA is asking to continue flights to LAN. https://www.fox47news.com/yes/american- ... gton-natio

This was the slot originally used by SY to go to LAN.
 
jbpdx
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Re: DC/VA/MD Aviation Thread - 2018

Sat Jan 27, 2018 8:16 pm

The Dulles route map lists Portland as a year round destination. Unfortunately, it’s seasonal on United.
^
 
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Re: DC/VA/MD Aviation Thread - 2018

Sat Jan 27, 2018 11:19 pm

atcsundevil wrote:
BWIAirport wrote:
Side topic on the smaller MD airports, HGR, SBY, and even FDK

Could any of those three support something small like a daily DL CRJ2 to JFK and/or ATL? Frederick, with its proximity to Baltimore and lack of any commercial service history, might be unrealistic, and Salisbury is more of a seasonal destination. But I think Hagerstown, being about a 2 hour drive from BWI, with a solid business and retail environment, G4 service to SFD/PIE and 9X (Southern Airways Express) to BWI and PIT, and a history of juggling destinations (Air Midwest, US Airways Express, Cape Air), could certainly support minimal service from a subsidiary of one of the big 3.
Worth mentioning the airport lost qualification for Essential Air Service because it's within 70 miles of both IAD and BWI.

Hagerstown doesn't really have enough demand, and as mentioned, it's not that far from IAD. If any of those three airports mentioned were to get an ATL flight though (I would rule out JFK entirely), HGR would be the most likely, but I would still count it as unlikely. FDK doesn't have the infrastructure, never mind the drive to IAD or BWI is too close, so the infrastructure pretty much rules them out in my mind. SBY is one of the last routes to hang on to the PDT DH8C, which tells me they're really delaying the upgauge to the E145 for as long as possible because of low demand (although the E145 has been phasing in to SBY). With American well-established to CLT, I'm not sure there's much left for Delta.


FDK is my home airport so I'll chime in. Technically we do have the infrastructure, especially after all the recent upgrades, HOWEVER, we are always issued NOTAMS for sudden ADIZ, so I do not see it being practical.

HGR has a good number of BWI flights, but I agree that I can't imagine a CRJ being filled.
Now get the hell off of my lawn your dang kids!
 
jplatts
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Re: DC/VA/MD Aviation Thread - 2018

Sun Jan 28, 2018 12:13 am

Will WN ever add nonstop service from IAD to AUS, DAL, HOU, LAX, OAK, PHX, and SJC, and will WN ever bring back nonstop service from IAD to MDW, LAS, and SAN? While WN does already serve AUS, MDW, DAL, and HOU nonstop from both DCA and BWI, and while WN already also serves LAX, OAK, PHX, SAN, and SJC nonstop from BWI, WN does have opportunities to further expand at IAD with IAD being almost 60 miles west of BWI.

There are major hi-tech corporations with offices in Northern Virginia between the I-495 Beltway and IAD, and WN could add IAD-AUS, IAD-OAK, and IAD-SJC nonstop service since AUS, OAK, and SJC are located in major hi-tech hubs and since IAD is closer to many of the hi-tech companies in the DC area than DCA or BWI are. WN could also add IAD-OAK and IAD-SJC nonstop service in order to better compete against AS, who serves SFO nonstop from IAD, DCA, and BWI.
 
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Re: DC/VA/MD Aviation Thread - 2018

Sun Jan 28, 2018 3:02 am

Blimpie wrote:
FDK is my home airport so I'll chime in. Technically we do have the infrastructure, especially after all the recent upgrades, HOWEVER, we are always issued NOTAMS for sudden ADIZ, so I do not see it being practical.

HGR has a good number of BWI flights, but I agree that I can't imagine a CRJ being filled.

Do you mean the TFR for Camp David, or are you referring to the SFRA? We don't have an ADIZ around here anymore...it was replaced by the SFRA and FRZ. There's only been a TFR for Camp David on a handful of occasions in the past year. Trump doesn't seem to like it much there. Between the SFRA and the occasional Camp David TFRs, it does make GA flying in the area more is a hassle than most places. As far as I know though, it wouldn't affect commercial traffic if it were to exist at FDK. The outer bubble of the TFR just requires squawk and talk, and a lot of TFRs in general only restrict GA traffic. They don't typically impact scheduled commercial ops.
 
capitalflyer
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Re: DC/VA/MD Aviation Thread - 2018

Mon Feb 05, 2018 8:49 pm

Dulles has landed a new carrier and another flight to the UK, this time to STN.

http://www.flydulles.com/iad/primera-ai ... l-london-0

Equipment will be a 321neo. Will they have any range problems? I assume running 5x weekly that they will share a gate with someone. Are they in alliance with anyone in particular?
 
CapitalAvGeek
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Re: DC/VA/MD Aviation Thread - 2018

Mon Feb 19, 2018 4:18 pm

IAD and DCA passenger numbers are finally out. Below are the 2017 totals for the three area airports.
IAD- 22.84 million up 4.2%
DCA- 22.96 million up 1.5%
BWI- 26.4 million up 5%

http://www.mwaa.com/sites/default/files ... eports.pdf
https://www.bwiairport.com/sites/defaul ... ec2017.pdf
 
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ElroyJetson
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Re: DC/VA/MD Aviation Thread - 2018

Mon Feb 19, 2018 5:34 pm

CapitalAvGeek wrote:
IAD and DCA passenger numbers are finally out. Below are the 2017 totals for the three area airports.
IAD- 22.84 million up 4.2%
DCA- 22.96 million up 1.5%
BWI- 26.4 million up 5%

http://www.mwaa.com/sites/default/files ... eports.pdf
https://www.bwiairport.com/sites/defaul ... ec2017.pdf



Interesting data. The fact that BWI has the greatest passenger volume does not surprise me. However, I think within a decade IAD will be the largest airport in the DC area, primarily due to the explosive growth in the western suburbs of Virginia, Maryland, and the West Virginia Panhandle. Census data shows these DC bedroom communities are growing very, very fast and do not appear to be slowing down. Why commute 30-40 miles to DCA or BWI when a much more convenient airport is nearby.

Granted IAD has its issues and a major upgrade to enhanced the passenger experience is needed as well as a greater LCC presence. There is no question that the large LCC market at BWI has been a major factor in its growth. But if UA gets some real LCC competition at IAD I think you could really see some rapid expansion.
707 717 727 72S 737 733 737-700 747 757 753 767-300 764 A319 A320 DC-9-10 DC-9-30 DC-9-50, MD-82 MD-88 MD-90 DC-10-10 DC-10-40 F-100
 
FlyPNS1
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Re: DC/VA/MD Aviation Thread - 2018

Mon Feb 19, 2018 6:53 pm

CapitalAvGeek wrote:
IAD and DCA passenger numbers are finally out. Below are the 2017 totals for the three area airports.
IAD- 22.84 million up 4.2%
DCA- 22.96 million up 1.5%
BWI- 26.4 million up 5%

http://www.mwaa.com/sites/default/files ... eports.pdf
https://www.bwiairport.com/sites/defaul ... ec2017.pdf


The most notable thing is that for the first time in many years, IAD is growing much faster than DCA in passenger numbers. This is not a total surprise as there isn't a lot of ability for carriers to grow at DCA anymore and the LCC's that added service in recent years (WN/B6) have finally reached full L/Fs, so no more demand to stimulate.
 
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atcsundevil
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Re: DC/VA/MD Aviation Thread - 2018

Mon Feb 19, 2018 7:52 pm

FlyPNS1 wrote:
CapitalAvGeek wrote:
IAD and DCA passenger numbers are finally out. Below are the 2017 totals for the three area airports.
IAD- 22.84 million up 4.2%
DCA- 22.96 million up 1.5%
BWI- 26.4 million up 5%

http://www.mwaa.com/sites/default/files ... eports.pdf
https://www.bwiairport.com/sites/defaul ... ec2017.pdf


The most notable thing is that for the first time in many years, IAD is growing much faster than DCA in passenger numbers. This is not a total surprise as there isn't a lot of ability for carriers to grow at DCA anymore and the LCC's that added service in recent years (WN/B6) have finally reached full L/Fs, so no more demand to stimulate.

It seems like this is how the cycle works. IAD grows, Congress adds slots and/or perimeter exemptions, IAD contracts for the next 2-3 years, then slowly claws back over the following 2-3 years. Rinse and repeat. I don't know if it says more about the demand for DCA, or the resiliency of IAD despite the demand for DCA.
 
iyerhari
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Re: DC/VA/MD Aviation Thread - 2018

Mon Feb 19, 2018 7:55 pm

I have added additional points from the annual passenger report that I have mentioned in the 2017 top hubs thread:

BWI: total pax: 26,436,345, international pax: 1,163,442 international pax as a % of total pax: 4.40%, AAGR: 4.93, ranking: 22
DCA: total pax: 23,950,004, international pax: 361,364 international pax as a % of total pax: 1.51%, AAGR: 1.51%, ranking: 24
IAD: total pax: 22,892,504, international pax: 7,744,586 international pax as a % of total pax: 33.83%, AAGR: 4.15%, ranking: 26

IAD international pax is like wow! It ranks in the top 10 international gateways in the US.
DCA is another story - with such limited gates, perimeter rules and a single runway, the airport functions very well I must say. I use that airport all the time for connections and AA has done a good job in identifying good routes and making use of available space.
 
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atcsundevil
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Re: DC/VA/MD Aviation Thread - 2018

Mon Feb 19, 2018 8:24 pm

iyerhari wrote:
IAD international pax is like wow! It ranks in the top 10 international gateways in the US.

That's always been the case at IAD. There's a greater diversity in carriers at IAD now than there used to be, but UA int'l capacity is down from a decade ago. Not massively so, but there used to be a few daily 744s and more 772s.

iyerhari wrote:
DCA is another story - with such limited gates, perimeter rules and a single runway, the airport functions very well I must say.

From my perspective, DCA copes as well as it can, which is about as polite as I can be! DCA is almost a constant headache from a traffic management perspective. Any amount of weather and we're in holding. A VIP movement at ADW and we're in holding. A flyover at Arlington and we're in holding. The airfield starts to saturate and we're in holding. They de-ice and we're in holding... You get the point. We go into holding almost daily for much of the year. The fact that it is effectively a single runway op with limited ramp space means that things are run as well as possible, but we're talking miles and miles from being efficient.

iyerhari wrote:
AA has done a good job in identifying good routes

AA definitely does not get to pick the routes! Every major city pair has an ATC pref route. A good example of an airline filing a totally wrong route every single day is the CommutAir flight from FAY-IAD. They file FAY.V56.WALLO..TYI..THHMP.CAVLR3. Under no circumstances would they be allowed to fly the THHMP.CAVLR3 transition, so every day it has to be changed to DORRN.CAVLR3, which is the pref route. It doesn't seem like a big difference looking at it on a map, but flying over THHMP means is a big problem for DCA arrivals. THHMP is still a published transition, but it's almost exclusively used for ORF departures because it doesn't conflict with DCA arrivals.

So, airlines can file whatever routes they'd like, but they're not gonna get it if it's a bad route for ATC. It's rare to see an airline get too creative with routes unless you're talking about longer distances...they pretty much always go with the pref routes. Pilots don't want to have to constantly be putting new routes in the FMS, and it's draining from an ATC perspective to have to constantly be reading reroutes and tying up the frequency.
 
iyerhari
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Re: DC/VA/MD Aviation Thread - 2018

Mon Feb 19, 2018 9:15 pm

Thank you for your perspectives. I did not know all this but I was solely basing my points using this yardstick:

DCA: total aircraft operations in the calendar year 2017: 293,097
Total number of gates: 44
IAD: total aircraft operations in the calendar year 2017: 264,575
Total number of gates: 175 (I counted the number from the terminal map)

I do not want to do a math to find out the passenger load per gate but it does seem direct that DCA maximizes with a limited number of gates. I know IAD gets a lot of international big planes but the math looks very clear that DCA is run very well with all the limited resources they have. The reason I stated AA is because LUS used has the highest passenger percentage followed by Southwest.
 
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Re: DC/VA/MD Aviation Thread - 2018

Mon Feb 19, 2018 10:22 pm

iyerhari wrote:
Thank you for your perspectives. I did not know all this but I was solely basing my points using this yardstick:

DCA: total aircraft operations in the calendar year 2017: 293,097
Total number of gates: 44
IAD: total aircraft operations in the calendar year 2017: 264,575
Total number of gates: 175 (I counted the number from the terminal map)

I do not want to do a math to find out the passenger load per gate but it does seem direct that DCA maximizes with a limited number of gates. I know IAD gets a lot of international big planes but the math looks very clear that DCA is run very well with all the limited resources they have. The reason I stated AA is because LUS used has the highest passenger percentage followed by Southwest.

I'm not sure that generating some sort of metric correlating gates to emplanements is a valid comparison, because like you said, it's a bit apples and oranges given the different kinds of ops. DCA is built around quick-turn regional flights, while IAD has widebodies tying up gate space for hours. It does make for an interesting comparison in how different kinds of ops affect facility utilization, and it says a lot about DCA running those kinds of numbers. Another interesting comparison: DCA only has twice as many gates as Richmond, but handles 11x more passengers.

DCA is running at maximum capacity, there's no doubt about it. I would argue that volume exceeds what the airport can actually handle during some periods of the day, but the same goes for all the New York airports.

IAD is generally overbuilt for the volume it actually handles, so there's plenty of room for growth. There isn't really any reasonable justification for IAD to have four runways. They built the third parallel for increased efficiency, but it just wasn't entirely necessary. I believe gate utilization on the A/B concourse is actually pretty high, and it definitely is in the afternoons and evenings. C/D generally has room to spare, because UA's ops just aren't what they used to be.
 
blockski
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Re: DC/VA/MD Aviation Thread - 2018

Tue Feb 20, 2018 12:35 am

iyerhari wrote:
Thank you for your perspectives. I did not know all this but I was solely basing my points using this yardstick:

DCA: total aircraft operations in the calendar year 2017: 293,097
Total number of gates: 44
IAD: total aircraft operations in the calendar year 2017: 264,575
Total number of gates: 175 (I counted the number from the terminal map)

I do not want to do a math to find out the passenger load per gate but it does seem direct that DCA maximizes with a limited number of gates. I know IAD gets a lot of international big planes but the math looks very clear that DCA is run very well with all the limited resources they have. The reason I stated AA is because LUS used has the highest passenger percentage followed by Southwest.


I don’t think those gate counts are correct.

First, it’s not an apples to apples comparison, DCA has 44 numbered jetbridge gates, but they also have the infamous gate 35X. That doesn’t seem to get counted here as the 12ish gates it really serves. IAD, on the other hand, has something like 36 RJ ‘gates’ from the Low A concourse, all without jet bridges, too.

So, a more accurate comparison would be to add in 35X to the DCA total, to get it into the mid 50s.

IAD's own literature says 125 gates, which sounds about right. Keep in mind that many of the gates are actually double-numbered, particularly in the core of A and B, to facilitate widebody operations. So, the gates exist, but they almost always function together, either as a dual jetbridge or with one of the jetbridges unused.
 
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Re: DC/VA/MD Aviation Thread - 2018

Wed Feb 21, 2018 3:41 pm

Saw an Alaska E170 fly by for the first time just a little while ago going into DCA. Shows that it will be going to Gate 16 which I thought was a UA gate. So are UA and AS sharing Gate 16 now and who will get to use Gate 24 now that it appears to be vacated?
 
blockski
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Re: DC/VA/MD Aviation Thread - 2018

Wed Feb 21, 2018 4:35 pm

OKCDCA wrote:
Saw an Alaska E170 fly by for the first time just a little while ago going into DCA. Shows that it will be going to Gate 16 which I thought was a UA gate. So are UA and AS sharing Gate 16 now and who will get to use Gate 24 now that it appears to be vacated?


Just looking at the arrivals board, it appears JetBlue is using gate 24 today.

Obviously part of this is due to the merger with Virgin; I'm not sure how many gates the combined airline really needs; and much of this might be temporary as they build the new security project to connect all of the B/C gates behind security.

Virgin had 4x daily flights to DAL and 1x to SFO; Alaska had 2x SEA, 1x LAX, and 1x PDX. All together, that's only a max of nine turns a day.
 
jbpdx
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Re: DC/VA/MD Aviation Thread - 2018

Wed Feb 21, 2018 5:42 pm

Why doesn’t the IAD website map show PDX as a seasonal route? UA does not fly Dulles-Portland year round.
^
 
blockski
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Re: DC/VA/MD Aviation Thread - 2018

Wed Feb 21, 2018 8:36 pm

jbpdx wrote:
Why doesn’t the IAD website map show PDX as a seasonal route? UA does not fly Dulles-Portland year round.


They don't update those maps super frequently. That change to a seasonal route (and a barely seasonal one IIRC - I think they take 5-6 weeks off) was relatively recent, and likely announced after they made that map.
 
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Re: DC/VA/MD Aviation Thread - 2018

Wed Feb 21, 2018 10:06 pm

ElroyJetson wrote:
CapitalAvGeek wrote:
IAD and DCA passenger numbers are finally out. Below are the 2017 totals for the three area airports.
IAD- 22.84 million up 4.2%
DCA- 22.96 million up 1.5%
BWI- 26.4 million up 5%

http://www.mwaa.com/sites/default/files ... eports.pdf
https://www.bwiairport.com/sites/defaul ... ec2017.pdf


Interesting data. The fact that BWI has the greatest passenger volume does not surprise me. However, I think within a decade IAD will be the largest airport in the DC area, primarily due to the explosive growth in the western suburbs of Virginia, Maryland, and the West Virginia Panhandle. Census data shows these DC bedroom communities are growing very, very fast and do not appear to be slowing down. Why commute 30-40 miles to DCA or BWI when a much more convenient airport is nearby.

Granted IAD has its issues and a major upgrade to enhanced the passenger experience is needed as well as a greater LCC presence. There is no question that the large LCC market at BWI has been a major factor in its growth. But if UA gets some real LCC competition at IAD I think you could really see some rapid expansion.


I agree that WN could further expand at IAD with BWI being almost 60 miles from IAD, and WN could add nonstop service from IAD to AUS, DAL, HOU, LAX, OAK, PHX, and SJC. In addition, WN could bring back nonstop service from IAD to MDW, LAS, and SAN. WN only currently does 7 daily departures out of IAD, but WN does have room to add additional flights out of IAD.
 
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Re: DC/VA/MD Aviation Thread - 2018

Thu Feb 22, 2018 8:03 am

blockski wrote:
jbpdx wrote:
Why doesn’t the IAD website map show PDX as a seasonal route? UA does not fly Dulles-Portland year round.


They don't update those maps super frequently. That change to a seasonal route (and a barely seasonal one IIRC - I think they take 5-6 weeks off) was relatively recent, and likely announced after they made that map.


Nope. It’s been that way for the past few years. We thought they were going year round this year but they didn’t.
^
 
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Re: DC/VA/MD Aviation Thread - 2018

Thu Feb 22, 2018 10:42 pm

atcsundevil wrote:
iyerhari wrote:
Thank you for your perspectives. I did not know all this but I was solely basing my points using this yardstick:

DCA: total aircraft operations in the calendar year 2017: 293,097
Total number of gates: 44
IAD: total aircraft operations in the calendar year 2017: 264,575
Total number of gates: 175 (I counted the number from the terminal map)

I do not want to do a math to find out the passenger load per gate but it does seem direct that DCA maximizes with a limited number of gates. I know IAD gets a lot of international big planes but the math looks very clear that DCA is run very well with all the limited resources they have. The reason I stated AA is because LUS used has the highest passenger percentage followed by Southwest.

I'm not sure that generating some sort of metric correlating gates to emplanements is a valid comparison, because like you said, it's a bit apples and oranges given the different kinds of ops. DCA is built around quick-turn regional flights, while IAD has widebodies tying up gate space for hours. It does make for an interesting comparison in how different kinds of ops affect facility utilization, and it says a lot about DCA running those kinds of numbers. Another interesting comparison: DCA only has twice as many gates as Richmond, but handles 11x more passengers.

DCA is running at maximum capacity, there's no doubt about it. I would argue that volume exceeds what the airport can actually handle during some periods of the day, but the same goes for all the New York airports.

IAD is generally overbuilt for the volume it actually handles, so there's plenty of room for growth. There isn't really any reasonable justification for IAD to have four runways. They built the third parallel for increased efficiency, but it just wasn't entirely necessary. I believe gate utilization on the A/B concourse is actually pretty high, and it definitely is in the afternoons and evenings. C/D generally has room to spare, because UA's ops just aren't what they used to be.




A small quibble. You said DCA has only twice the gates as RIC and yet has 11x the passenger volume. RIC had 3,657,000 pax last year. 11X that volume would be over 40 million pax. DCA is not anywhere near 40 million pax per year. RIC btw set an all time high pax number last year.


https://www.usatoday.com/story/travel/f ... 305751002/
707 717 727 72S 737 733 737-700 747 757 753 767-300 764 A319 A320 DC-9-10 DC-9-30 DC-9-50, MD-82 MD-88 MD-90 DC-10-10 DC-10-40 F-100
 
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Re: DC/VA/MD Aviation Thread - 2018

Thu Feb 22, 2018 11:49 pm

ElroyJetson wrote:
atcsundevil wrote:
iyerhari wrote:
Thank you for your perspectives. I did not know all this but I was solely basing my points using this yardstick:

DCA: total aircraft operations in the calendar year 2017: 293,097
Total number of gates: 44
IAD: total aircraft operations in the calendar year 2017: 264,575
Total number of gates: 175 (I counted the number from the terminal map)

I do not want to do a math to find out the passenger load per gate but it does seem direct that DCA maximizes with a limited number of gates. I know IAD gets a lot of international big planes but the math looks very clear that DCA is run very well with all the limited resources they have. The reason I stated AA is because LUS used has the highest passenger percentage followed by Southwest.

I'm not sure that generating some sort of metric correlating gates to emplanements is a valid comparison, because like you said, it's a bit apples and oranges given the different kinds of ops. DCA is built around quick-turn regional flights, while IAD has widebodies tying up gate space for hours. It does make for an interesting comparison in how different kinds of ops affect facility utilization, and it says a lot about DCA running those kinds of numbers. Another interesting comparison: DCA only has twice as many gates as Richmond, but handles 11x more passengers.

DCA is running at maximum capacity, there's no doubt about it. I would argue that volume exceeds what the airport can actually handle during some periods of the day, but the same goes for all the New York airports.

IAD is generally overbuilt for the volume it actually handles, so there's plenty of room for growth. There isn't really any reasonable justification for IAD to have four runways. They built the third parallel for increased efficiency, but it just wasn't entirely necessary. I believe gate utilization on the A/B concourse is actually pretty high, and it definitely is in the afternoons and evenings. C/D generally has room to spare, because UA's ops just aren't what they used to be.




A small quibble. You said DCA has only twice the gates as RIC and yet has 11x the passenger volume. RIC had 3,657,000 pax last year. 11X that volume would be over 40 million pax. DCA is not anywhere near 40 million pax per year. RIC btw set an all time high pax number last year.


https://www.usatoday.com/story/travel/f ... 305751002/

I was actually just throwing out a number. Lol. I moved away from RIC in 2007 after living there for 15 years (still had family there until 2013, so I went back regularly until then), so I guess I'm my mind they still only run about 2.5 million! That's great they're up to 3.6, I had no idea they were pulling those kinds of numbers these days. It's a great airport and an even better city. I actually just drove down there last week for the first time since moving back to DC last year, so I definitely got all nostalgic, especially once I found the Ukrop's food at Kroger. It's amazing how much the airport has changed and grown in the past 20 years.
 
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Re: DC/VA/MD Aviation Thread - 2018

Fri Feb 23, 2018 12:41 am

atcsundevil wrote:
ElroyJetson wrote:
atcsundevil wrote:
I'm not sure that generating some sort of metric correlating gates to emplanements is a valid comparison, because like you said, it's a bit apples and oranges given the different kinds of ops. DCA is built around quick-turn regional flights, while IAD has widebodies tying up gate space for hours. It does make for an interesting comparison in how different kinds of ops affect facility utilization, and it says a lot about DCA running those kinds of numbers. Another interesting comparison: DCA only has twice as many gates as Richmond, but handles 11x more passengers.

DCA is running at maximum capacity, there's no doubt about it. I would argue that volume exceeds what the airport can actually handle during some periods of the day, but the same goes for all the New York airports.

IAD is generally overbuilt for the volume it actually handles, so there's plenty of room for growth. There isn't really any reasonable justification for IAD to have four runways. They built the third parallel for increased efficiency, but it just wasn't entirely necessary. I believe gate utilization on the A/B concourse is actually pretty high, and it definitely is in the afternoons and evenings. C/D generally has room to spare, because UA's ops just aren't what they used to be.


A small quibble. You said DCA has only twice the gates as RIC and yet has 11x the passenger volume. RIC had 3,657,000 pax last year. 11X that volume would be over 40 million pax. DCA is not anywhere near 40 million pax per year. RIC btw set an all time high pax number last year.


https://www.usatoday.com/story/travel/f ... 305751002/

I was actually just throwing out a number. Lol. I moved away from RIC in 2007 after living there for 15 years (still had family there until 2013, so I went back regularly until then), so I guess I'm my mind they still only run about 2.5 million! That's great they're up to 3.6, I had no idea they were pulling those kinds of numbers these days. It's a great airport and an even better city. I actually just drove down there last week for the first time since moving back to DC last year, so I definitely got all nostalgic, especially once I found the Ukrop's food at Kroger. It's amazing how much the airport has changed and grown in the past 20 years.



I lived in Richmond for many years as well and I love the city. I have since lived in Minneapolis and the Tampa area. Yeah, RIC was a sleepy airport for many years but I think Troy Bell is an outstanding airport manager and under his leadership RIC has grown tremendously. For example, I never thought RIC would surpass ORF in passenger volume but it has and it is the now busiest airport in Virginia after DCA and IAD.

I think RIC will continue to outpace most U.S. airports in growth for the next decade or so and could be at 5-6 million pax by then. As I have said a number of times, if WN seizes the moment there could truly be some explosive growth. We'll see.
707 717 727 72S 737 733 737-700 747 757 753 767-300 764 A319 A320 DC-9-10 DC-9-30 DC-9-50, MD-82 MD-88 MD-90 DC-10-10 DC-10-40 F-100
 
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Re: DC/VA/MD Aviation Thread - 2018

Fri Feb 23, 2018 1:00 am

ElroyJetson wrote:
I lived in Richmond for many years as well and I love the city. I have since lived in Minneapolis and the Tampa area. Yeah, RIC was a sleepy airport for many years but I think Troy Bell is an outstanding airport manager and under his leadership RIC has grown tremendously. For example, I never thought RIC would surpass ORF in passenger volume but it has and it is the now busiest airport in Virginia after DCA and IAD.

I think RIC will continue to outpace most U.S. airports in growth for the next decade or so and could be at 5-6 million pax by then. As I have said a number of times, if WN seizes the moment there could truly be some explosive growth. We'll see.


I agree that WN could expand to more than just ATL from RIC. WN had recently announced that it wants to further expand at LAS, and WN could add RIC-LAS nonstop service since LAS currently does not currently have any nonstop service out of RIC. In addition, WN could also add nonstop service to MDW and DEN from RIC since MDW and DEN are two of the largest WN stations and since CHI and DEN are two of the top destinations from RIC.

There is also a significant amount of travel to LAX and SFO from RIC, even though there is currently no nonstop service to LAX, SFO, or OAK out of RIC. WN would be able to more easily connect passengers to California from RIC if it adds nonstop service to MDW, DEN, and LAS from RIC.
 
flybaby
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Re: DC/VA/MD Aviation Thread - 2018

Sun Feb 25, 2018 2:46 am

ElroyJetson wrote:
...For example, I never thought RIC would surpass ORF in passenger volume but it has and it is the now busiest airport in Virginia after DCA and IAD.

I think RIC will continue to outpace most U.S. airports in growth for the next decade or so and could be at 5-6 million pax by then. As I have said a number of times, if WN seizes the moment there could truly be some explosive growth. We'll see.


RIC has done a better job in recent years than ORF attracting LCCs which I believe explains why it has surpassed ORF. I think if JetBlue entered ORF, it would probably overtake RIC again.
 
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Re: DC/VA/MD Aviation Thread - 2018

Tue Mar 06, 2018 3:34 pm

This last week, Amazon executives were here in Northern Virginia, MD, and DC scoping out development sites for Amazon HQ2. Apparently, in VA, they were looking at sites in Alexandria, Fairfax, and the CIT campus next to Dulles. I think it goes without saying that an Amazon HQ2 would be a huge boon to Dulles. With United having an international and domestic hub there, it would more than likely be a positive boon to United as well. Alexandria/DC would obviously be a boon to DCA, but how much more expansion can DCA really handle? Not much I suppose. The image below is the proposed site next to Dulles.
Image
From flying to the NOTAM office
 
izbtmnhd
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Re: DC/VA/MD Aviation Thread - 2018

Tue Mar 06, 2018 3:39 pm

ElroyJetson wrote:
CapitalAvGeek wrote:
IAD and DCA passenger numbers are finally out. Below are the 2017 totals for the three area airports.
IAD- 22.84 million up 4.2%
DCA- 22.96 million up 1.5%
BWI- 26.4 million up 5%

http://www.mwaa.com/sites/default/files ... eports.pdf
https://www.bwiairport.com/sites/defaul ... ec2017.pdf



Interesting data. The fact that BWI has the greatest passenger volume does not surprise me. However, I think within a decade IAD will be the largest airport in the DC area, primarily due to the explosive growth in the western suburbs of Virginia, Maryland, and the West Virginia Panhandle. Census data shows these DC bedroom communities are growing very, very fast and do not appear to be slowing down.


The DC Metro outer counties to the west are growing at half the rate that they were last decade. Loudoun is the lone larger county that continues to grow at steady pace. Fairfax population growth has slowed to a crawl despite all the new construction. Prince William is growing at half the rate it was five years ago. Manassas city is starting to shrink. More people are moving back into Arlington, Alexandria and the District. This does not help IAD.
 
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Re: DC/VA/MD Aviation Thread - 2018

Tue Mar 06, 2018 4:10 pm

izbtmnhd wrote:
ElroyJetson wrote:
CapitalAvGeek wrote:
IAD and DCA passenger numbers are finally out. Below are the 2017 totals for the three area airports.
IAD- 22.84 million up 4.2%
DCA- 22.96 million up 1.5%
BWI- 26.4 million up 5%

http://www.mwaa.com/sites/default/files ... eports.pdf
https://www.bwiairport.com/sites/defaul ... ec2017.pdf



Interesting data. The fact that BWI has the greatest passenger volume does not surprise me. However, I think within a decade IAD will be the largest airport in the DC area, primarily due to the explosive growth in the western suburbs of Virginia, Maryland, and the West Virginia Panhandle. Census data shows these DC bedroom communities are growing very, very fast and do not appear to be slowing down.


The DC Metro outer counties to the west are growing at half the rate that they were last decade. Fairfax population growth has slowed to a crawl despite all the new construction. Not quite sure what you are talking about here.

https://factfinder.census.gov/faces/tab ... l?src=bkmk

Loudoun is the lone larger county that continues to grow at steady pace. Prince William is growing at half the rate it was five years ago. Manassas city is starting to shrink. More people are moving back into Arlington, Alexandria and the District. This does not help IAD.



I am not sure where you are getting your facts but they are in serious error.


Loudoun County is the fastest growing County in Virginia and one of the fastest growing Counties in the U.S. That is the heart of the IAD catchment area and is in fact where IAD is located. Key quote from the link I provide below.


Loudoun County, the fastest growing jurisdiction in the state, has seen its population grow 26.8 percent since the 2010 Census.


https://wtop.com/prince-william-county/ ... on-growth/


The City of Winchester and the nearby West Virginia Panhandle are also experiencing explosive population growth. Key quote: Berkeley County, like the rest of West Virginia's Eastern Panhandle, has been a hotbed of growth. Its population has nearly doubled this century. Last year it had the state's largest increase with a gain of 1,890 residents and now has 113,525 residents.

https://www.usnews.com/news/best-states ... -last-year

Trust me, I know the area well and I do know what I am talking about. :) IAD is in the hottest growth area by far in the DC metro area and should be well positioned for greater growth than DCA or BWI. What IAD needs is a greater LCC presence. I think B6 or WN have a golden opportunity if the seize it.
707 717 727 72S 737 733 737-700 747 757 753 767-300 764 A319 A320 DC-9-10 DC-9-30 DC-9-50, MD-82 MD-88 MD-90 DC-10-10 DC-10-40 F-100
 
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Re: DC/VA/MD Aviation Thread - 2018

Tue Mar 06, 2018 4:25 pm

ElroyJetson wrote:
izbtmnhd wrote:
ElroyJetson wrote:


Interesting data. The fact that BWI has the greatest passenger volume does not surprise me. However, I think within a decade IAD will be the largest airport in the DC area, primarily due to the explosive growth in the western suburbs of Virginia, Maryland, and the West Virginia Panhandle. Census data shows these DC bedroom communities are growing very, very fast and do not appear to be slowing down.


The DC Metro outer counties to the west are growing at half the rate that they were last decade. Fairfax population growth has slowed to a crawl despite all the new construction. Not quite sure what you are talking about here.

https://factfinder.census.gov/faces/tab ... l?src=bkmk

Loudoun is the lone larger county that continues to grow at steady pace. Prince William is growing at half the rate it was five years ago. Manassas city is starting to shrink. More people are moving back into Arlington, Alexandria and the District. This does not help IAD.



I am not sure where you are getting your facts but they are in serious error.


Loudoun County is the fastest growing County in Virginia and one of the fastest growing Counties in the U.S. That is the heart of the IAD catchment area and is in fact where IAD is located.


https://wtop.com/prince-william-county/ ... on-growth/


The City of Winchester and the nearby West Virginia Panhandle are also experiencing explosive population growth. Key quote: Berkeley County, like the rest of West Virginia's Eastern Panhandle, has been a hotbed of growth. Its population has nearly doubled this century. Last year it had the state's largest increase with a gain of 1,890 residents and now has 113,525 residents.

https://www.usnews.com/news/best-states ... -last-year

Trust me, I know the area well and I do know what I am talking about. :) IAD is in the hottest growth area by far in the DC metro area and should be well positioned for greater growth than DCA or BWI. What IAD needs is a greater LCC presence. I think B6 or WN have a golden opportunity if the seize it.


Trust me, I live here too. Growth rates are slowing. Loudoun is the lone exception. Prince William's growth mostly happened between 2010-2013. Berkeley County has grown from 75K to 113K in 16 years. That being said only 9K of those new residents have moved in over the last six years. That's not nearly a doubling rate since 2000 and it's slowing. Also, these outer counties you are talking about are quite small. Fairfax holds more people than almost all the outer counties combined and it's only grown by 6K over the last three years despite having 1.1M people. Also, not surprisingly, WTOP posted incorrect info. The least estimate has Fairfax at 1.138M.

Also, Loudoun hasn't been one of the fastest growing counties in the US for quite a while now.

https://www.census.gov/newsroom/press-r ... 17-44.html

Toronto and the GTA has explosive growth. The VA/MD/WV Piedmont/Valleys are seeing a growth pattern shift not an explosion. Let's be fair here.

As more people move into the District and Arlington they're going to prefer BWI over IAD. Even with the Metro expansion I still think people find BWI more accessible for domestic flights because of all the rail service available from Union Station. IAD still has issues.
 
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Re: DC/VA/MD Aviation Thread - 2018

Tue Mar 06, 2018 5:27 pm

izbtmnhd wrote:
ElroyJetson wrote:
izbtmnhd wrote:

The DC Metro outer counties to the west are growing at half the rate that they were last decade. Fairfax population growth has slowed to a crawl despite all the new construction. Not quite sure what you are talking about here.

https://factfinder.census.gov/faces/tab ... l?src=bkmk

Loudoun is the lone larger county that continues to grow at steady pace. Prince William is growing at half the rate it was five years ago. Manassas city is starting to shrink. More people are moving back into Arlington, Alexandria and the District. This does not help IAD.



I am not sure where you are getting your facts but they are in serious error.


Loudoun County is the fastest growing County in Virginia and one of the fastest growing Counties in the U.S. That is the heart of the IAD catchment area and is in fact where IAD is located.


https://wtop.com/prince-william-county/ ... on-growth/


The City of Winchester and the nearby West Virginia Panhandle are also experiencing explosive population growth. Key quote: Berkeley County, like the rest of West Virginia's Eastern Panhandle, has been a hotbed of growth. Its population has nearly doubled this century. Last year it had the state's largest increase with a gain of 1,890 residents and now has 113,525 residents.

https://www.usnews.com/news/best-states ... -last-year

Trust me, I know the area well and I do know what I am talking about. :) IAD is in the hottest growth area by far in the DC metro area and should be well positioned for greater growth than DCA or BWI. What IAD needs is a greater LCC presence. I think B6 or WN have a golden opportunity if the seize it.


Trust me, I live here too. Growth rates are slowing. Loudoun is the lone exception. Prince William's growth mostly happened between 2010-2013. Berkeley County has grown from 75K to 113K in 16 years. That being said only 9K of those new residents have moved in over the last six years. That's not nearly a doubling rate since 2000 and it's slowing. Also, these outer counties you are talking about are quite small. Fairfax holds more people than almost all the outer counties combined and it's only grown by 6K over the last three years despite having 1.1M people. Also, not surprisingly, WTOP posted incorrect info. The least estimate has Fairfax at 1.138M.

Also, Loudoun hasn't been one of the fastest growing counties in the US for quite a while now.

https://www.census.gov/newsroom/press-r ... 17-44.html

Toronto and the GTA has explosive growth. The VA/MD/WV Piedmont/Valleys are seeing a growth pattern shift not an explosion. Let's be fair here.

As more people move into the District and Arlington they're going to prefer BWI over IAD. Even with the Metro expansion I still think people find BWI more accessible for domestic flights because of all the rail service available from Union Station. IAD still has issues.

I'm not sure I would call a 27% increase in population in Loudon "steady", I would call that fairly explosive. Considering it's a very affluent population, that kind of growth can only be a good thing for IAD. I live in Leesburg, and there's no chance I'd bother trying to get to DCA or BWI when IAD is less than 20 minutes away. Loudoun now has around 400,000 residents, up from 146,000 in 1998, and 290,000 in 2008. I certainly wouldn't call that "half the rate" that it used to be when it looks to me as if the trend is continuing, albeit slowed during the recession like everywhere else. I can't think of any other county in VA that has grown at anything close to that sort of pace.

Prince William isn't growing like it used to, but I would owe that more to traffic problems than anything else. It's just not as appealing to live there as before.

Either way, the growth rates at IAD are reflective of the growing population out here, and it certainly doesn't hurt that Loudoun has the highest median income in the US. People have money to spend. DCA simply doesn't have much room to grow, and that's not going to change. It's already running at maximum capacity.
 
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ElroyJetson
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Re: DC/VA/MD Aviation Thread - 2018

Tue Mar 06, 2018 7:34 pm

izbtmnhd wrote:
ElroyJetson wrote:
izbtmnhd wrote:

The DC Metro outer counties to the west are growing at half the rate that they were last decade. Fairfax population growth has slowed to a crawl despite all the new construction. Not quite sure what you are talking about here.

https://factfinder.census.gov/faces/tab ... l?src=bkmk

Loudoun is the lone larger county that continues to grow at steady pace. Prince William is growing at half the rate it was five years ago. Manassas city is starting to shrink. More people are moving back into Arlington, Alexandria and the District. This does not help IAD.



I am not sure where you are getting your facts but they are in serious error.


Loudoun County is the fastest growing County in Virginia and one of the fastest growing Counties in the U.S. That is the heart of the IAD catchment area and is in fact where IAD is located.


https://wtop.com/prince-william-county/ ... on-growth/


The City of Winchester and the nearby West Virginia Panhandle are also experiencing explosive population growth. Key quote: Berkeley County, like the rest of West Virginia's Eastern Panhandle, has been a hotbed of growth. Its population has nearly doubled this century. Last year it had the state's largest increase with a gain of 1,890 residents and now has 113,525 residents.

https://www.usnews.com/news/best-states ... -last-year

Trust me, I know the area well and I do know what I am talking about. :) IAD is in the hottest growth area by far in the DC metro area and should be well positioned for greater growth than DCA or BWI. What IAD needs is a greater LCC presence. I think B6 or WN have a golden opportunity if the seize it.


Trust me, I live here too. Growth rates are slowing. Loudoun is the lone exception. Prince William's growth mostly happened between 2010-2013. Berkeley County has grown from 75K to 113K in 16 years. That being said only 9K of those new residents have moved in over the last six years. That's not nearly a doubling rate since 2000 and it's slowing. Also, these outer counties you are talking about are quite small. Fairfax holds more people than almost all the outer counties combined and it's only grown by 6K over the last three years despite having 1.1M people. Also, not surprisingly, WTOP posted incorrect info. The least estimate has Fairfax at 1.138M.

Also, Loudoun hasn't been one of the fastest growing counties in the US for quite a while now.

https://www.census.gov/newsroom/press-r ... 17-44.html

Toronto and the GTA has explosive growth. The VA/MD/WV Piedmont/Valleys are seeing a growth pattern shift not an explosion. Let's be fair here.

As more people move into the District and Arlington they're going to prefer BWI over IAD. Even with the Metro expansion I still think people find BWI more accessible for domestic flights because of all the rail service available from Union Station. IAD still has issues.



Okay.....whatever you say. :) I'm Joe Friday.....it's all about the facts. If Loudoun is the fastest growing County in the State and that is where IAD is located it is tough to spin that fact negative, But I must admit you give it a good effort. The growth west of Loudoun is also undeniable and also tough to spin negative as IAD is by far the closest major airport.

As I said earlier, there is no question IAD has its issues, but the potential for strong growth is there due to population patterns. IAD is no longer the white elephant located in the middle of nowhere. I will state again, I think LCC's like WN or B6 will need to provide greater competition to UA for IAD to realize its full potential. DCA is always close to maxed out and BWI has done so well precisely because of LCC's, particularly WN.
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estorilm
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Re: DC/VA/MD Aviation Thread - 2018

Tue Mar 06, 2018 8:58 pm

Random question (again) for you all.

While I was stuck in the wind storm Fri-Sun I was listening to IAD ATC whenever possible, and as soon as I opened the app on Friday I heard ground communications for "Air Force One" (which I've never heard live in my entire life!) Super cool to hear, but does anyone know why she was at IAD?

edit: I suppose I should ask, how did all these airports fare during the weather event? ATC was very interesting. METARS all had the extra WND info for peaks and directions which I'm not used to seeing. Any interesting go-arounds? I think it was mostly NNW, they never used the circle-to-land or anything weird like that right?

FWIW I think the peak IAD reading was 71MPH.
 
CapitalAvGeek
Posts: 120
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Re: DC/VA/MD Aviation Thread - 2018

Tue Mar 06, 2018 9:06 pm

estorilm wrote:
Random question (again) for you all.

While I was stuck in the wind storm Fri-Sun I was listening to IAD ATC whenever possible, and as soon as I opened the app on Friday I heard ground communications for "Air Force One" (which I've never heard live in my entire life!) Super cool to hear, but does anyone know why she was at IAD?

AF1 had to takeoff from IAD instead of ADW because of the strong northwest winds. IAD has runway 30 which faces northwest and ADW only has north-south runways
 
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atcsundevil
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Re: DC/VA/MD Aviation Thread - 2018

Tue Mar 06, 2018 9:54 pm

estorilm wrote:
edit: I suppose I should ask, how did all these airports fare during the weather event?

IAD: Not great. Lots of windshear. Went into the hold for about an hour and a half on Friday due to the VIP movement, which was quickly followed by the evacuation of the tower. They moved over to the ramp tower and got things going again, but IAD ops are severely hampered when restricted to Runway 30. Things were a little better on Saturday, and things were pretty much back to normal by Sunday and Monday. It definitely seemed like there were a lot of extra flights Sunday and yesterday to make up for it, they got pretty busy at times.

DCA: Pretty well, actually. There were so many cancelations that there was hardly any traffic headed there. I think they might have been using 15/33 for a while though, so that's what caused a lot of cancelations. It seemed like only SWA was trying to get in.

BWI: Didn't seem to have much of an effect, as far as I could tell. Their runway setup is far more conducive to wind conditions like that. Traffic had no problem getting in and out.

RIC/ORF/PHF: Mostly bad. Lots of go arounds and diversions. Some ended up in RDU (which had some go arounds, but everyone got in eventually), and some returned to destination, mostly back to CLT or ATL.

estorilm wrote:
ATC was very interesting.

I would have used another word for it! Lol. I'm sure it depended on the facility. The center was extremely boring, but Potomac and the respective towers were earning their pay.
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