OKCDCA
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Re: Phoenix Aviation Thread - 2018

Tue Oct 16, 2018 2:07 am

910A wrote:
travaz wrote:
I know it is not hard numbers but I used to go to COS out of PHX several times a year (9 or 10 times) and the flight was always full.


Same here and COS was just an easy airport to use.

Thank you guys for the insight! Just makes me even more aggravated that we don’t have a PHX flight. I’d gladly trade our ORD flights (on OO CR7’s) for PHX as they’re pretty redundant to the DFW flights in terms of connections.

COS is an extremely easy airport to use. I hate driving to DEN as I’m going to do next month to catch AA DEN-PHX because the F9 flight out the of COS isn’t timed well for this trip.
 
chrisair
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Re: Phoenix Aviation Thread - 2018

Tue Oct 16, 2018 8:36 am

JustWingIt wrote:
I don't know if this was previously mentioned, but did you guys also realize that QX is beginning SEA-PHX starting 11/5/18? I just booked a flight on their E175.


My guess is that’s the aircraft for PHX-PAE. I saw the E175s start to show up on routes they don’t normally fly: SEA-LAX, SEA-LAS etc.
 
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cathay747
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Re: Phoenix Aviation Thread - 2018

Tue Oct 16, 2018 1:02 pm

cm642 wrote:
Don't know if anyone's noticed but Hawaiian's A330 will be starting sooner than expected, it's already loaded into the schedule from 11/19 on replacing the 763!


Wow...sure enough, effective 18NOV HA036 changing to the 332 then 19NOV for HA035, they moved it up! In the GDS. Wonder why?
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JustWingIt
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Re: Phoenix Aviation Thread - 2018

Tue Oct 16, 2018 1:49 pm

chrisair wrote:
JustWingIt wrote:
I don't know if this was previously mentioned, but did you guys also realize that QX is beginning SEA-PHX starting 11/5/18? I just booked a flight on their E175.


My guess is that’s the aircraft for PHX-PAE. I saw the E175s start to show up on routes they don’t normally fly: SEA-LAX, SEA-LAS etc.


PAE-PHX is an E175, but PAE is not even opening up for another several months. If that is the case, it's interesting they did it this much earlier. At least it will be cool for spotters like me, and I at least get to fly it in early January.
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MO11
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Re: Phoenix Aviation Thread - 2018

Tue Oct 16, 2018 4:03 pm

JustWingIt wrote:
I don't know if this was previously mentioned, but did you guys also realize that QX is beginning SEA-PHX starting 11/5/18? I just booked a flight on their E175.


The schedule is very erratic; it doesn't depart PHX at the same time each day. It is running Nov 5,6,7,11,14,15,16,17,19 and that's it until December 2 (when the schedule will be consistent).

I can't figure out why, on November 7, there's a 737 SEA-PHX at 330pm, and an E175 at 340pm.
 
INFINITI329
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Re: Phoenix Aviation Thread - 2018

Tue Oct 16, 2018 5:06 pm

It baffles the mind why AA doesn't serve PHX-COS. I can see a mixture of the CR7,CR9 & 319 on the route 2x-3x a day. UA flies DEN-COS 10x a day. I would be surprised if anything less than 95% of that traffic is not connection pax.
 
chrisair
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Re: Phoenix Aviation Thread - 2018

Tue Oct 16, 2018 6:13 pm

JustWingIt wrote:
PAE-PHX is an E175, but PAE is not even opening up for another several months. If that is the case, it's interesting they did it this much earlier. At least it will be cool for spotters like me, and I at least get to fly it in early January.


Right, but I think they'll have too much slack in the E75 fleet if they don't fly the planes somewhere. It makes sense that they'd just add them to the existing routes rather than opening a bunch of new routes just to close them in a few months. They do that enough as it is.

The E75s are only appearing on the routes they will fly from PAE, and it seems the E75s start showing up around the "original" start date of PAE. Once that airport opens, I'd expect them to just swap those E75 flights to PAE. The block times should be similar and they won't need to do much juggling with the crews.

The E75 is a nice ride, but by hour three your butt gets tired.

MO11 wrote:
The schedule is very erratic; it doesn't depart PHX at the same time each day. It is running Nov 5,6,7,11,14,15,16,17,19 and that's it until December 2 (when the schedule will be consistent).

I can't figure out why, on November 7, there's a 737 SEA-PHX at 330pm, and an E175 at 340pm.


It's Alaska. The same airline that runs SEA-SFO at 605a, 620a, 7a, 705a, and 8a.

That's going to be one interesting gate area in PHX when they board both Seattle flights at the same time!
 
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Re: Phoenix Aviation Thread - 2018

Tue Oct 16, 2018 6:20 pm

cathay747 wrote:
cm642 wrote:
Don't know if anyone's noticed but Hawaiian's A330 will be starting sooner than expected, it's already loaded into the schedule from 11/19 on replacing the 763!


Wow...sure enough, effective 18NOV HA036 changing to the 332 then 19NOV for HA035, they moved it up! In the GDS. Wonder why?


Hell, I'm on HA36 on 11/15, so it should be my last ride on one of the wonderful AWAS/ILFC airplanes.
 
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cathay747
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Re: Phoenix Aviation Thread - 2018

Tue Oct 16, 2018 8:29 pm

MO11 wrote:
cathay747 wrote:
cm642 wrote:
Don't know if anyone's noticed but Hawaiian's A330 will be starting sooner than expected, it's already loaded into the schedule from 11/19 on replacing the 763!


Wow...sure enough, effective 18NOV HA036 changing to the 332 then 19NOV for HA035, they moved it up! In the GDS. Wonder why?


Hell, I'm on HA36 on 11/15, so it should be my last ride on one of the wonderful AWAS/ILFC airplanes.


Aloha oe to the 763 for you! LOL What timing!
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skyharborshome
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Re: Phoenix Aviation Thread - 2018

Tue Oct 16, 2018 11:20 pm

For those of you who follow GA, I cannot remember a time when there were 10 TFR rings over one city. Trump lands at PHX Thursday night (2 rings), apparently stays near Scottsdale airport (2), is heading to Luke AFB Friday morning (2) and then speaks at Gateway (2). You also have the Cardinals game (1) and the ASU game (1). I am not sure if he is leaving Friday night or Saturday morning as one of the TFRs go until 9 am Saturday. I just scrapped a flight to Sedona for Friday and looks like a fly-in for the desert is at risk too. Lots going on this weekend in our fair city.
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atcsundevil
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Re: Phoenix Aviation Thread - 2018

Wed Oct 17, 2018 1:08 am

skyharborshome wrote:
For those of you who follow GA, I cannot remember a time when there were 10 TFR rings over one city. Trump lands at PHX Thursday night (2 rings), apparently stays near Scottsdale airport (2), is heading to Luke AFB Friday morning (2) and then speaks at Gateway (2). You also have the Cardinals game (1) and the ASU game (1). I am not sure if he is leaving Friday night or Saturday morning as one of the TFRs go until 9 am Saturday. I just scrapped a flight to Sedona for Friday and looks like a fly-in for the desert is at risk too. Lots going on this weekend in our fair city.

You shouldn't need to scrap any of your flying. Granted you'll have to dodge the 5 and 10 mile rings, but anything outside of that just requires you to squawk and talk. It might get a little complicated if you're trying to stay clear of the bravo, but with Foreflight and all of the other fancy apps out there, it shouldn't be too bad. It is a lot of TFRs, but complicated airspace and restrictions are common on the east coast. The airspace in the valley is pretty simple in comparison.
 
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Re: Phoenix Aviation Thread - 2018

Wed Oct 17, 2018 1:53 am

skyharborshome wrote:
For those of you who follow GA, I cannot remember a time when there were 10 TFR rings over one city. Trump lands at PHX Thursday night (2 rings), apparently stays near Scottsdale airport (2), is heading to Luke AFB Friday morning (2) and then speaks at Gateway (2). You also have the Cardinals game (1) and the ASU game (1). I am not sure if he is leaving Friday night or Saturday morning as one of the TFRs go until 9 am Saturday. I just scrapped a flight to Sedona for Friday and looks like a fly-in for the desert is at risk too. Lots going on this weekend in our fair city.



I hope the President is using Marine One to get around. Scottsdale to Luke would make one hell of a mess on the 101 and Glendale ave.
 
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Re: Phoenix Aviation Thread - 2018

Wed Oct 17, 2018 2:23 am

Is SAN-PHX a possibility on Alaska on an ERJ-175?

Also, is AA's SAN 757 route one of a few domestic/contiguous US 752 routes left?
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alasizon
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Re: Phoenix Aviation Thread - 2018

Wed Oct 17, 2018 2:33 am

maps4ltd wrote:
Is SAN-PHX a possibility on Alaska on an ERJ-175?

Also, is AA's SAN 757 route one of a few domestic/contiguous US 752 routes left?


SAN-PHX is probably at least a year or two away on AS at best; they have better uses for the E175 right now and SAN works pretty well without it. Likewise, there are very few people who are going to do PHX-SAN-XXX on AS except for those going to MMH. AS has almost every other single city covered via the other hubs. The only connections it works for is PHX-Central California which obviously has AA direct competition (and many of these have AS codeshares FWIW).

Assuming you mean for AA; yes then PHX-SAN is one of the few left (PHX-DFW/CLT/SAN/LAX/DCA and DFW-DCA/PHX) operating with the domestic configuration. Although not all of those operate every season. There are also some domestic routes from DFW and MIA served with the international configured 757.
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travaz
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Re: Phoenix Aviation Thread - 2018

Wed Oct 17, 2018 2:37 am

I think the afternoon flight DCA PHX is usually a 752. US used to run that same flight with a 752. I have flown on it several times.
 
skyharborshome
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Re: Phoenix Aviation Thread - 2018

Wed Oct 17, 2018 6:44 pm

atcsundevil wrote:
skyharborshome wrote:
For those of you who follow GA, I cannot remember a time when there were 10 TFR rings over one city. Trump lands at PHX Thursday night (2 rings), apparently stays near Scottsdale airport (2), is heading to Luke AFB Friday morning (2) and then speaks at Gateway (2). You also have the Cardinals game (1) and the ASU game (1). I am not sure if he is leaving Friday night or Saturday morning as one of the TFRs go until 9 am Saturday. I just scrapped a flight to Sedona for Friday and looks like a fly-in for the desert is at risk too. Lots going on this weekend in our fair city.

You shouldn't need to scrap any of your flying. Granted you'll have to dodge the 5 and 10 mile rings, but anything outside of that just requires you to squawk and talk. It might get a little complicated if you're trying to stay clear of the bravo, but with Foreflight and all of the other fancy apps out there, it shouldn't be too bad. It is a lot of TFRs, but complicated airspace and restrictions are common on the east coast. The airspace in the valley is pretty simple in comparison.


I am in the 10 mile ring for some of the time and my buddy flying Friday does not want to deal with the flight plan and squawking. Plus he is renting (I own) and they will not allow it if there is a chance you cannot get back in before a certain time and that is when the 10 mile is in effect. The fly-in traffic is coming from Scottsdale so that is a no as well.
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777PHX
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Re: Phoenix Aviation Thread - 2018

Wed Oct 17, 2018 6:55 pm

travaz wrote:
skyharborshome wrote:
For those of you who follow GA, I cannot remember a time when there were 10 TFR rings over one city. Trump lands at PHX Thursday night (2 rings), apparently stays near Scottsdale airport (2), is heading to Luke AFB Friday morning (2) and then speaks at Gateway (2). You also have the Cardinals game (1) and the ASU game (1). I am not sure if he is leaving Friday night or Saturday morning as one of the TFRs go until 9 am Saturday. I just scrapped a flight to Sedona for Friday and looks like a fly-in for the desert is at risk too. Lots going on this weekend in our fair city.



I hope the President is using Marine One to get around. Scottsdale to Luke would make one hell of a mess on the 101 and Glendale ave.


He is. They flew over my work yesterday at Camelback and 44th on a practice run. Three Ospreys and two smaller ones.
 
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cathay747
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Re: Phoenix Aviation Thread - 2018

Wed Oct 17, 2018 10:00 pm

777PHX wrote:
travaz wrote:
skyharborshome wrote:
For those of you who follow GA, I cannot remember a time when there were 10 TFR rings over one city. Trump lands at PHX Thursday night (2 rings), apparently stays near Scottsdale airport (2), is heading to Luke AFB Friday morning (2) and then speaks at Gateway (2). You also have the Cardinals game (1) and the ASU game (1). I am not sure if he is leaving Friday night or Saturday morning as one of the TFRs go until 9 am Saturday. I just scrapped a flight to Sedona for Friday and looks like a fly-in for the desert is at risk too. Lots going on this weekend in our fair city.



I hope the President is using Marine One to get around. Scottsdale to Luke would make one hell of a mess on the 101 and Glendale ave.


He is. They flew over my work yesterday at Camelback and 44th on a practice run. Three Ospreys and two smaller ones.


Something I just thought of...for any presidential visit regardless of who the prez is...why does AF1 fly into PHX and not Luke? Aside from eliminating the obvious commercial traffic mess it causes, seems to me that security would be a lot easier at Luke too.
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b96756
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Re: Phoenix Aviation Thread - 2018

Thu Oct 18, 2018 2:56 am

cathay747 wrote:
777PHX wrote:
travaz wrote:


I hope the President is using Marine One to get around. Scottsdale to Luke would make one hell of a mess on the 101 and Glendale ave.


He is. They flew over my work yesterday at Camelback and 44th on a practice run. Three Ospreys and two smaller ones.


Something I just thought of...for any presidential visit regardless of who the prez is...why does AF1 fly into PHX and not Luke? Aside from eliminating the obvious commercial traffic mess it causes, seems to me that security would be a lot easier at Luke too.



Maybe because it’s more centrally located - If I’m not mistaken AF1 normally parks at the ANG base on the south side.
 
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Re: Phoenix Aviation Thread - 2018

Thu Oct 18, 2018 4:03 am

cathay747 wrote:
Something I just thought of...for any presidential visit regardless of who the prez is...why does AF1 fly into PHX and not Luke? Aside from eliminating the obvious commercial traffic mess it causes, seems to me that security would be a lot easier at Luke too.
b96756 wrote:
Maybe because it’s more centrally located - If I’m not mistaken AF1 normally parks at the ANG base on the south side.

PHX is normally used because most POTUS events are historically in Phoenix, Tempe, or Scottsdale. IWA was used by Obama during the now infamous Jan Brewer "pointing" incident (around 2012?). PHX is also the most readily equipped field in the valley to handle a 747 for reasons that should be fairly obvious. LUF isn't generally used, because whatever security advantage is gained by being on an Air Force base is lost during the logistical mess of trying to get POTUS to wherever he needs to be from a field on the extreme outskirts of the valley. Besides, whenever POTUS operates in/out of a civilian field, the security measures in place are equally as robust, albeit more complicated and inconvenient to the flying public.

I have never seen AF1 park at the ANG hangars. AF1 almost always parks in front of the Executive Terminal immediately west of T3N. This has been the case for decades, and I've never seen it park anywhere else.
 
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Re: Phoenix Aviation Thread - 2018

Thu Oct 18, 2018 7:48 am

777PHX wrote:
He is. They flew over my work yesterday at Camelback and 44th on a practice run. Three Ospreys and two smaller ones.


I saw them too. Was wondering what the Ospreys were doing over this part of the Valley.

cathay747 wrote:
Something I just thought of...for any presidential visit regardless of who the prez is...why does AF1 fly into PHX and not Luke? .


They like inconveniencing as many people as possible. Doesn’t matter what letter is behind the name, please stay away.
 
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JustWingIt
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Re: Phoenix Aviation Thread - 2018

Fri Oct 19, 2018 2:51 am

Do you guys happen to know the schedule for the DL A333 service this winter? I at least know that it starts on 12/22 and will operate as DL1772.
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MO11
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Re: Phoenix Aviation Thread - 2018

Fri Oct 19, 2018 3:08 am

JustWingIt wrote:
Do you guys happen to know the schedule for the DL A333 service this winter? I at least know that it starts on 12/22 and will operate as DL1772.


Arrives 113pm, departs 220pm. Last flight January 2. Flight number may vary.
 
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Re: Phoenix Aviation Thread - 2018

Fri Oct 19, 2018 3:16 am

MO11 wrote:
JustWingIt wrote:
Do you guys happen to know the schedule for the DL A333 service this winter? I at least know that it starts on 12/22 and will operate as DL1772.


Arrives 113pm, departs 220pm. Last flight January 2. Flight number may vary.


Darn it, I literally leave to go to SEA the day before and come back the day after. :(
Well at least I get to fly an AS E175 coming back
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777PHX
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Re: Phoenix Aviation Thread - 2018

Fri Oct 19, 2018 10:24 pm

chrisair wrote:
777PHX wrote:
He is. They flew over my work yesterday at Camelback and 44th on a practice run. Three Ospreys and two smaller ones.


I saw them too. Was wondering what the Ospreys were doing over this part of the Valley.

cathay747 wrote:
Something I just thought of...for any presidential visit regardless of who the prez is...why does AF1 fly into PHX and not Luke? .


They like inconveniencing as many people as possible. Doesn’t matter what letter is behind the name, please stay away.


The three Ospreys just flew overhead again. I didn't see the two smaller ones. I'm guessing the Ospreys carry support personnel?
 
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Re: Phoenix Aviation Thread - 2018

Sat Oct 20, 2018 2:50 pm

777PHX wrote:
chrisair wrote:
777PHX wrote:
He is. They flew over my work yesterday at Camelback and 44th on a practice run. Three Ospreys and two smaller ones.


I saw them too. Was wondering what the Ospreys were doing over this part of the Valley.

cathay747 wrote:
Something I just thought of...for any presidential visit regardless of who the prez is...why does AF1 fly into PHX and not Luke? .


They like inconveniencing as many people as possible. Doesn’t matter what letter is behind the name, please stay away.


The three Ospreys just flew overhead again. I didn't see the two smaller ones. I'm guessing the Ospreys carry support personnel?


We had 2 Ospreys fly nearly right over our house in Avondale around 1815 or so...looked like they came from LUF and they were flying to the SE...maybe they went to PHX?
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chrisair
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Re: Phoenix Aviation Thread - 2018

Sun Oct 21, 2018 4:14 am

777PHX wrote:
The three Ospreys just flew overhead again. I didn't see the two smaller ones. I'm guessing the Ospreys carry support personnel?


The two Marine Ones and three Ospreys flew over my place yesterday near 44th st/Camelback, heading northwest. Not sure where they were going. Maybe they were looking for the large, 200-foot hotel that was planned near that neighborhood. :wink2:

You are correct: POTUS in one of the Marine Ones. Press pool, support personnel, WH aides and other folks ride in the Ospreys (or other, far less lavish military helicopters, usually with oil dripping from the ceiling).
 
cm642
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Re: Phoenix Aviation Thread - 2018

Tue Oct 23, 2018 8:17 pm

So what are your thoughts... "ANALYSIS: What to make of American's local shift in Phoenix"

https://www.flightglobal.com/news/articles/analysis-what-to-make-of-americans-local-shift-in-452897/
 
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Re: Phoenix Aviation Thread - 2018

Tue Oct 23, 2018 9:52 pm

cm642 wrote:
So what are your thoughts... "ANALYSIS: What to make of American's local shift in Phoenix"

https://www.flightglobal.com/news/articles/analysis-what-to-make-of-americans-local-shift-in-452897/

The conclusions made in the article are completely asinine. Phoenix is in a "death spiral" because it has an increased local demand? Um, what? Look, PHX is far from being one of AA's most important hubs, but it's still a solid component for the network. Why is that? Why did other hubs like PIT, CLE, MEM, etc. die? Partly geography, which isn't in PHX's favor, but primarily because of lousy O&D. A hub's value increases when there's a strong local demand, it has efficiency for connections, and has low operating costs.

Since the merger was announced, I was always of the opinion that AA would right-size PHX, which is exactly what happened. You'd think the doom-and-gloomers would have given up on the "PHX will be dehubbed!" mantra a while ago, but apparently not. I can't say that I understand why a forum full of aviation enthusiasts would seemingly root for less aviation in the world. Then again, these are usually the same people who think that UA will dehub IAD, which sounds equally (if not more) stupid.

PHX will certainly be more vulnerable than most cities come the next economic recession simply because the valley is more fragile than most places. However, given that PHX is one of the cheapest hubs to operate, that'll probably be its saving grace just like it was a decade ago.

In conclusion, what a load of crap.
 
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Re: Phoenix Aviation Thread - 2018

Tue Oct 23, 2018 11:28 pm

atcsundevil wrote:
cm642 wrote:
So what are your thoughts... "ANALYSIS: What to make of American's local shift in Phoenix"

https://www.flightglobal.com/news/articles/analysis-what-to-make-of-americans-local-shift-in-452897/

The conclusions made in the article are completely asinine. Phoenix is in a "death spiral" because it has an increased local demand? Um, what? Look, PHX is far from being one of AA's most important hubs, but it's still a solid component for the network. Why is that? Why did other hubs like PIT, CLE, MEM, etc. die? Partly geography, which isn't in PHX's favor, but primarily because of lousy O&D. A hub's value increases when there's a strong local demand, it has efficiency for connections, and has low operating costs.


Yeah, look, the economics of the area are only changing for the better and PHX is one of the fastest growing areas of the country right now. Maricopa County was the quickest growing county in the country last year in terms of absolute numbers. O&D is only going to get stronger and the airport infrastructure is only going to get better with these long term enhancements.

Since the merger was announced, I was always of the opinion that AA would right-size PHX, which is exactly what happened. You'd think the doom-and-gloomers would have given up on the "PHX will be dehubbed!" mantra a while ago, but apparently not. I can't say that I understand why a forum full of aviation enthusiasts would seemingly root for less aviation in the world. Then again, these are usually the same people who think that UA will dehub IAD, which sounds equally (if not more) stupid.


Exactly.

They've streamlined some efficiencies and have done right sizing. They've also added a seasonal widebody flight to LHR, as well as widebody service to several domestic destinations on a seasonal basis. Which has increased yearly for several years now.

The notion that AA is in some sort of death spiral at PHX is laughable.

(This is also why I'm not much for blogs, because you usually have no idea the level of credibility the author has. Especially aviation blogs which tend to be written by fanboy teenagers living in mom's basement)

EDIT: I just Googled the author. He's about what I expected him to be. No real world aviation experience other than writing for fanboy blogs. No real world corporate experience either. Consider the source.
 
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cathay747
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Re: Phoenix Aviation Thread - 2018

Wed Oct 24, 2018 12:05 pm

VERY well said, both of you. And I agree about the writers of this stuff. Seeing your comments, I'm not even wasting my time reading the piece since it sounds like yet another rehash of the "PHX dehub" crap.
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bryancsnider
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Re: Phoenix Aviation Thread - 2018

Thu Oct 25, 2018 1:45 pm

The article is non-sense.

What killed STL, MEM, CLE, CVG and so on is more than just geography.

- The hubs were simply not profitable.
- O & D numbers low
- Cities with slower economies, growth and potentially shrinking populations.

Phoenix is a booming city with a growing economy with lots of successful startups recently including two mattress companies like Tuft and Needle, and Brooklyn Bedding. Heck look at how Tempe’s skyline and even Phoenix has changed in the last decade.

Also Phoenix is attracting people & businesses from high cost of living states like California and Illinois. Why? Because Arizona is a great place to live and do business.

Your dollar goes further here. Quality of life per dollar spent is significantly lower than states like California, Washington, Illinois and so on.

Finally if AA hypothetically pulled the hub in Phoenix, airlines like Delta, United and so on would rejoice! The O & D numbers are there (unlike MEM, CLE, CVG and so on)...so someone would have to fill the capacity surplus...which would bring fierce competition and more balanced market shares. <— AA does not want this.

SWA would still be the dominant carrier, but new or existing small market share airlines like Jet Blue or Alaska could potentially pounce on the opportunities, while Delta and United could potentially increase capacity and frequency to their already well positioned hubs.

Another way to think of it is that PHX would become more like a LAS or MCO. In my opinion, this may not be a bad thing....which is why I think American would never give up too much of their market share, nor would they completely let their hub go.

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INFINITI329
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Re: Phoenix Aviation Thread - 2018

Thu Oct 25, 2018 5:28 pm

bryancsnider wrote:
Phoenix is a booming city with a growing economy with lots of successful startups recently including two mattress companies like Tuft and Needle, and Brooklyn Bedding. Heck look at how Tempe’s skyline and even Phoenix has changed in the last decade.


Neither of the companies you mentioned are start ups once had been around for over 20 years and the other about 6

bryancsnider wrote:
Another way to think of it is that PHX would become more like a LAS or MCO. In my opinion, this may not be a bad thing....which is why I think American would never give up too much of their market share, nor would they completely let their hub go


I dont think PHX can ever achieve a status equal to LAS or MCO. Both cities have a huge tourist draw, along with very sizeable O&D traffic. That's something PHX will never have. PHX has a booming economy that will definitely cause O&D traffic to grow. I expect very modest growth over the next few years but nothing earth shattering
 
777PHX
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Joined: Tue Oct 13, 2015 4:36 am

Re: Phoenix Aviation Thread - 2018

Thu Oct 25, 2018 5:46 pm

bryancsnider wrote:
The article is non-sense.

What killed STL, MEM, CLE, CVG and so on is more than just geography.

- The hubs were simply not profitable.
- O & D numbers low
- Cities with slower economies, growth and potentially shrinking populations.

Phoenix is a booming city with a growing economy with lots of successful startups recently including two mattress companies like Tuft and Needle, and Brooklyn Bedding. Heck look at how Tempe’s skyline and even Phoenix has changed in the last decade.


Precisely. I was in St. Louis during the boom years with TWA all the way to the dehubbing by AA and there's a night and day difference between the two cities. Phoenix has a booming economy and is one of the quickest growing areas of the country - it's only up from here. St. Louis has been on a steady decline since the 1950s. It's a shadow of it's former self and has lost many of its big businesses over the past three decades. McDonnell Douglas, TWA, Purina, Monsanto, Scottrade, Anheuser Busch, AG Edwards, Isle of Capri, May Department Stores, Sigma Aldrich, Charter, Saavis, etc. Population growth is also flat.

bryancsnider wrote:
Also Phoenix is attracting people & businesses from high cost of living states like California and Illinois. Why? Because Arizona is a great place to live and do business.


And that's me. The state income tax and property taxes were out of control in Illinois, so I moved out here. The number of Illinois license plates I see out here is mind boggling. Likewise for California, Arizona and Nevada are two of the quickest growing states because of everyone fleeing California.
 
travaz
Posts: 863
Joined: Wed Jun 13, 2001 1:03 am

Re: Phoenix Aviation Thread - 2018

Thu Oct 25, 2018 7:33 pm

I agree about all this nonsense about PHX going away. Here are the latest stats from the COP. It is a very interesting read on all of the passengers that fly thru PHX. O%D, international, cargo etc. AA has more pax that WN so I would say that AA has a bigger operation than WN. This info has past years and is right up to August 2018.
http://www.skyharbor.com/About/Informat ... Statistics

Edit: Trying to use crappy WiFi from a hotel in SYD
 
777PHX
Posts: 962
Joined: Tue Oct 13, 2015 4:36 am

Re: Phoenix Aviation Thread - 2018

Thu Oct 25, 2018 8:12 pm

travaz wrote:
I agree about all this nonsense about PHX going away. Here are the latest stats from the COP. It is a very interesting read on all of the passengers that fly thru PHX. O%D, international, cargo etc. AA has more pax that WN so I would say that AA has a bigger operation than WN. This info has past years and is right up to August 2018.
http://www.skyharbor.com/About/Informat ... Statistics

Edit: Trying to use crappy WiFi from a hotel in SYD


2% difference between 2016 and 2017 for AA. Death spiral, my ass.

The airport as a whole is on an upward trend. 2017 was the best year in years, second to only 2015, which had the benefit of the super bowl.
 
jplatts
Posts: 2946
Joined: Sat Mar 18, 2017 6:42 pm

Re: Phoenix Aviation Thread - 2018

Thu Oct 25, 2018 8:23 pm

travaz wrote:
I agree about all this nonsense about PHX going away. Here are the latest stats from the COP. It is a very interesting read on all of the passengers that fly thru PHX. O%D, international, cargo etc. AA has more pax that WN so I would say that AA has a bigger operation than WN. This info has past years and is right up to August 2018.
http://www.skyharbor.com/About/Informat ... Statistics


WN actually has nonstop service from PHX to destinations that AA doesn't serve nonstop from PHX such as BUF, MDW, CLE, DAL, FLL, HOU, SDF, BNA, MSY, RDU, TUL, and ICT. On the other hand, there are some domestic destinations served by both WN and AA that have nonstop service out of PHX on AA but not on WN such as AMA, BOS, CLT, LGB, LBB, MAF, MEM, and DCA.

While WN discontinued PHX-BOS nonstop service 6 years ago, WN could bring back PHX-BOS nonstop service since WN is now much bigger in BOS than it was back when WN dropped PHX-BOS nonstop service and since there are many WN customers in PHX who prefer to fly on WN over AA or B6. WN could also add PHX-MEM nonstop service in order to better compete against AA in the PHX market. WN will also likely add PHX-LGB nonstop service if it can get enough extra slots at LGB.

AA could add nonstop service to at least CVG, SDF, BNA, MSY, RDU, and TUL from PHX in order to better compete against WN in the PHX market. CVG, SDF, BNA, MSY, and TUL are also within the range of American Eagle regional jets from PHX and AA does have the option of adding American Eagle nonstop service to CVG, SDF, BNA, MSY, and TUL from PHX.
 
Vctony
Posts: 622
Joined: Sun Aug 01, 1999 10:51 am

Re: Phoenix Aviation Thread - 2018

Thu Oct 25, 2018 9:23 pm

travaz wrote:
I agree about all this nonsense about PHX going away. Here are the latest stats from the COP. It is a very interesting read on all of the passengers that fly thru PHX. O%D, international, cargo etc. AA has more pax that WN so I would say that AA has a bigger operation than WN. This info has past years and is right up to August 2018.
http://www.skyharbor.com/About/Informat ... Statistics

Edit: Trying to use crappy WiFi from a hotel in SYD


Actually, in August 2018 for traffic originating at PHX WN enplaned 403,887 passengers and AA enplaned 368,807 passengers. So WN is the larger O/D carrier (and this trend will likely continue if the rumored, albeit modest, expansion of WN operations comes to pass).

AA won't completely reduce PHX to a spoke. The very worst case scenario for PHX is that it ends up looking a lot like the DL operation at CVG. I'd imagine in this scenerio there would still be nonstop flights to all of AA's other hubs (CLT, DCA, DFW, JFK, LAX, MIA, ORD, and PHL). I also think that they would be able to keep service at a minimum of 1x daily to AUS, BOS, HNL, LAS, PDX, SAN, SEA, SFO, SMF, SNA, and SJC. I also think that MCO, PVR, and SJD could also potentially remain. This would probably set a floor of around 80 - 100 daily departures on AA.

I also would argue that AA's cuts to capacity in PHX seem to have ended. AA actually was up in total passengers YOY in 2018 over 2017 for January, February, March, April, May, and July. Only June and August had less passenger traffic. AA has been slowly plugging holes in its route map (although some large ones still remain). With the addition of seasonal LHR service and seasonal MSN and GRR service it appears that they still believe in the potential of the market.
 
INFINITI329
Posts: 2479
Joined: Mon Jul 02, 2012 12:53 am

Re: Phoenix Aviation Thread - 2018

Fri Oct 26, 2018 12:01 am

jplatts wrote:
WN actually has nonstop service from PHX to destinations that AA doesn't serve nonstop from PHX such as BUF, MDW, CLE, DAL, FLL, HOU, SDF, BNA, MSY, RDU, TUL, and ICT.


MDW, DAL, FLL, HOU are served by AA at the larger airports in those markets.ORD, DFW, MIA & IAH 3 of 4 of those markets are AA hubs. I was surprised that AA doesn't serve either MSY or BNA from PHX.
Vctony wrote:
I also think that they would be able to keep service at a minimum of 1x daily to AUS, BOS, HNL, LAS, PDX, SAN, SEA, SFO, SMF, SNA, and SJC. I also think that MCO, PVR, and SJD could also potentially remain. This would probably set a floor of around 80 - 100 daily departures on AA.


I dont see AA at PHX getting that small
 
bryancsnider
Posts: 16
Joined: Sat Oct 29, 2011 5:59 am

Re: Phoenix Aviation Thread - 2018

Fri Oct 26, 2018 2:09 pm

Can’t forget that all airlines had to cut capacity the last couple of years in winter to deal with the 8/26 runway closure. I’ve also noticed less availability of gates because of construction.

During the closures, I did a lot of time lapse photography of the traffic and it’s insane how busy the two runways were.




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cm642
Posts: 101
Joined: Fri Oct 02, 2015 8:16 pm

Re: Phoenix Aviation Thread - 2018

Wed Oct 31, 2018 9:26 am

Don't know if this has been posted here but here is the link to the airports Comprehensive Management Plan which includes numerous terminal layout alternatives as well as realignment of Sky Harbor Blvd.

Presentation:
https://www.skyharbor.com/docs/default-source/pdfs/camp/phx-camp-fg-c-meeting-3_2018-08-27_workshop-station-summary.pdf?sfvrsn=48a19688_4


In terms of terminal campus alternatives I personally like 3a, 3d and 3f, so far it looks like 3c and 3d are the preferred alternatives according to the feedback.
Feedback:
https://www.skyharbor.com/docs/default-source/pdfs/camp/phx-camp-fg-c-meeting-3_feedback-summary.pdf?sfvrsn=76639788_4
 
austwin
Posts: 78
Joined: Mon Feb 18, 2013 11:19 pm

Re: Phoenix Aviation Thread - 2018

Wed Oct 31, 2018 10:43 pm

Thanks cm642. I hadn't seen it before. That's a lot to digest. Why do so many of the terminal plans show many empty gates instead of building to projected use with space to add on? I don't like flying into an airport and seeing closed terminals with jetways still attached. It gives a "dying city" impression to me.
 
alasizon
Posts: 2028
Joined: Sat Apr 28, 2007 8:57 pm

Re: Phoenix Aviation Thread - 2018

Wed Oct 31, 2018 11:58 pm

austwin wrote:
Thanks cm642. I hadn't seen it before. That's a lot to digest. Why do so many of the terminal plans show many empty gates instead of building to projected use with space to add on? I don't like flying into an airport and seeing closed terminals with jetways still attached. It gives a "dying city" impression to me.


Most of the "vacant gate" proposals other than 2b & 3f are in small numbers and certainly are planning or expansion. 3f is asinine because there is no need for 48 vacant gates. I personally prefer 3d, it gives the most room in the event of a boom and given that last pier could be constructed once needed; it gives cargo a bit more time to relocate.
Manager on Duty & Tower Planner
 
bryancsnider
Posts: 16
Joined: Sat Oct 29, 2011 5:59 am

Re: Phoenix Aviation Thread - 2018

Thu Nov 01, 2018 11:45 pm

I find it odd that there isn’t a new design (unless I looked over it) that puts phx in a better position for international expansions.

Terminal 4 seems to be at capacity....especially in the winter because of lack of gate space. They need a concept, maybe even one that allows big international expansion. Phoenix can’t handle many heavies at the same time and much of these concepts seem to do the same am I wrong?


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bryancsnider
Posts: 16
Joined: Sat Oct 29, 2011 5:59 am

Re: Phoenix Aviation Thread - 2018

Thu Nov 01, 2018 11:49 pm

I have gone back and now see a concept that has international moving...but it also appears it will be limited and the walk for international pax.....yikes!


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alasizon
Posts: 2028
Joined: Sat Apr 28, 2007 8:57 pm

Re: Phoenix Aviation Thread - 2018

Fri Nov 02, 2018 12:41 am

bryancsnider wrote:
I find it odd that there isn’t a new design (unless I looked over it) that puts phx in a better position for international expansions.

Terminal 4 seems to be at capacity....especially in the winter because of lack of gate space. They need a concept, maybe even one that allows big international expansion. Phoenix can’t handle many heavies at the same time and much of these concepts seem to do the same am I wrong?


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk


I'd argue that the moving of WN to the new West Terminal (which I fully support because it'll allow WN & AA to optimize their operation/terminal to their needs); allows for N4 to become entirely international. Moving the Regional Ops from N4 over to S3/S4 allows for the existing gates to be repurposed with International access at all the gates (B16/B18 would likely be retained for AA Regional INTL). Some restriping would probably add 3-4 group III gates and only lose a gate or two.
Manager on Duty & Tower Planner
 
Vctony
Posts: 622
Joined: Sun Aug 01, 1999 10:51 am

Re: Phoenix Aviation Thread - 2018

Fri Nov 02, 2018 1:28 am

alasizon wrote:
bryancsnider wrote:
I find it odd that there isn’t a new design (unless I looked over it) that puts phx in a better position for international expansions.

Terminal 4 seems to be at capacity....especially in the winter because of lack of gate space. They need a concept, maybe even one that allows big international expansion. Phoenix can’t handle many heavies at the same time and much of these concepts seem to do the same am I wrong?


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk


I'd argue that the moving of WN to the new West Terminal (which I fully support because it'll allow WN & AA to optimize their operation/terminal to their needs); allows for N4 to become entirely international. Moving the Regional Ops from N4 over to S3/S4 allows for the existing gates to be repurposed with International access at all the gates (B16/B18 would likely be retained for AA Regional INTL). Some restriping would probably add 3-4 group III gates and only lose a gate or two.


I'm really surprised about the lack of any additional international capacity in any of these designs. I was under the impression that PHX doesn't have much more capacity for any significant international expansion. Also, at least publicly, the city and Aviation department keep talking about how they are interested in growing internationally (although this plan seems to suggest otherwise). This is part of the reason I'm told that WN doesn't fly internationally from PHX. All of these concepts either keep international as is or move it completely (but it doesn't look like there's any increased capacity for international flights in the complete move). I'd argue PHX could use another FIS facility in either T3 or the West terminal and if a West terminal (or major T3 expansion) is constructed without a FIS facility it would appear to be a major design flaw.
 
bryancsnider
Posts: 16
Joined: Sat Oct 29, 2011 5:59 am

Re: Phoenix Aviation Thread - 2018

Fri Nov 02, 2018 2:17 am

Vctony wrote:
alasizon wrote:
bryancsnider wrote:
I find it odd that there isn’t a new design (unless I looked over it) that puts phx in a better position for international expansions.

Terminal 4 seems to be at capacity....especially in the winter because of lack of gate space. They need a concept, maybe even one that allows big international expansion. Phoenix can’t handle many heavies at the same time and much of these concepts seem to do the same am I wrong?


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk


I'd argue that the moving of WN to the new West Terminal (which I fully support because it'll allow WN & AA to optimize their operation/terminal to their needs); allows for N4 to become entirely international. Moving the Regional Ops from N4 over to S3/S4 allows for the existing gates to be repurposed with International access at all the gates (B16/B18 would likely be retained for AA Regional INTL). Some restriping would probably add 3-4 group III gates and only lose a gate or two.


I'm really surprised about the lack of any additional international capacity in any of these designs. I was under the impression that PHX doesn't have much more capacity for any significant international expansion. Also, at least publicly, the city and Aviation department keep talking about how they are interested in growing internationally (although this plan seems to suggest otherwise). This is part of the reason I'm told that WN doesn't fly internationally from PHX. All of these concepts either keep international as is or move it completely (but it doesn't look like there's any increased capacity for international flights in the complete move). I'd argue PHX could use another FIS facility in either T3 or the West terminal and if a West terminal (or major T3 expansion) is constructed without a FIS facility it would appear to be a major design flaw.


This is exactly my thoughts. It is a design flaw.


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cm642
Posts: 101
Joined: Fri Oct 02, 2015 8:16 pm

Re: Phoenix Aviation Thread - 2018

Fri Nov 02, 2018 6:31 am

bryancsnider wrote:
Vctony wrote:
alasizon wrote:

I'd argue that the moving of WN to the new West Terminal (which I fully support because it'll allow WN & AA to optimize their operation/terminal to their needs); allows for N4 to become entirely international. Moving the Regional Ops from N4 over to S3/S4 allows for the existing gates to be repurposed with International access at all the gates (B16/B18 would likely be retained for AA Regional INTL). Some restriping would probably add 3-4 group III gates and only lose a gate or two.


I'm really surprised about the lack of any additional international capacity in any of these designs. I was under the impression that PHX doesn't have much more capacity for any significant international expansion. Also, at least publicly, the city and Aviation department keep talking about how they are interested in growing internationally (although this plan seems to suggest otherwise). This is part of the reason I'm told that WN doesn't fly internationally from PHX. All of these concepts either keep international as is or move it completely (but it doesn't look like there's any increased capacity for international flights in the complete move). I'd argue PHX could use another FIS facility in either T3 or the West terminal and if a West terminal (or major T3 expansion) is constructed without a FIS facility it would appear to be a major design flaw.


This is exactly my thoughts. It is a design flaw.


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Partially addressing the design flaws you speak of one of the reasons why I like 3F is while yes that leaves 48 vacant gates in T4, you could potentially add a 5th concourse to the west on the north side of the new terminal as well as expand the linear concourse on the south side. Then those 48 vacant gates or concourses on the north side of T4 could be demolished to make way for a new linear concourse similar to the one currently being built on T3 south that would be widebody/international capable. The only other major issue I see is the airfield having issues/restrictions accommodating multiple widebodies at once since the taxiways seem to be too narrow compared to the wingspans of current Group V aircraft!
 
alasizon
Posts: 2028
Joined: Sat Apr 28, 2007 8:57 pm

Re: Phoenix Aviation Thread - 2018

Sat Nov 03, 2018 12:23 am

cm642 wrote:
Partially addressing the design flaws you speak of one of the reasons why I like 3F is while yes that leaves 48 vacant gates in T4, you could potentially add a 5th concourse to the west on the north side of the new terminal as well as expand the linear concourse on the south side. Then those 48 vacant gates or concourses on the north side of T4 could be demolished to make way for a new linear concourse similar to the one currently being built on T3 south that would be widebody/international capable. The only other major issue I see is the airfield having issues/restrictions accommodating multiple widebodies at once since the taxiways seem to be too narrow compared to the wingspans of current Group V aircraft!


That is way more construction than what is required. Particularly since in 3F there is a new linear concourse on the South side that appears to be planned for INTL. 3C would allow them to put an FIS in T3S and 3D would allow an FIS in the last concourse of the West Terminal.

Realistically, adding just a few gates solves the gating issue, the current Customs is still bottlenecked by passenger processing capacity. I truly don't see there as being that much of a demand though that the current Customs couldn't handle. Currently gating is the restriction outside of when BA comes in (in part because GDL, CUN, PVR, SJD, and YXE come in +/- 15 minutes).
Manager on Duty & Tower Planner

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