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stl07
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2018

Thu Sep 06, 2018 1:04 am

jplatts wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:
He wants to turn IND into a "Midwest Hub," wants to add more flights "throughout" Europe/Asia/NA when the numbers work. $20 million is no small number, quite the statement

Here is the tweet: https://twitter.com/GovHolcomb/status/1 ... 8489702400
"Indianapolis will become the preferred Midwest hub of international travel. We are looking at Asia, Central & South America, & Europe where we can add a nonstop flight to & from @INDairport."


WN already serves destinations in Mexico, Central America, and the Caribbean, including the following:
  • BZE in Belize
  • LIR and SJO in Costa Rica
  • CUN, MEX, PVR, and SJD in Mexico
  • AUA, GCM, HAV, MBJ, NAS, PLS, PUJ, and SJU in the Caribbean

And?
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flymco753
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2018

Thu Sep 06, 2018 1:09 am

IND-Central and South America? There's no market. Theres been comments about IND-GRU or IND-PTY or SJO but those markets are fairly small compared to even the larger midwest markets.
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ADrum23
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2018

Thu Sep 06, 2018 1:11 am

fedex1 wrote:
So folks think a 50-60 flight per day Delta operation at its maximum at IND? I am asking.


While I do think a DL focus city in IND would be nice, I would be shocked if it happened. With CVG right down the road and DTW and MSP nearby, there isn't a need for another DL focus city in IND, or anywhere else east of the Mississippi for that matter.
 
floridaflyboy
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2018

Thu Sep 06, 2018 1:51 am

ADrum23 wrote:
fedex1 wrote:
So folks think a 50-60 flight per day Delta operation at its maximum at IND? I am asking.


While I do think a DL focus city in IND would be nice, I would be shocked if it happened. With CVG right down the road and DTW and MSP nearby, there isn't a need for another DL focus city in IND, or anywhere else east of the Mississippi for that matter.


I tend to agree with you that Delta is well served in the Midwest as it is, I do have to point out that I think DTW is more problematic for IND than MSP. That said, I think there are likely a few more cities that we are going to see connected to IND in the near-medium term future. In speaking with the station leaders, they are planning an expansion of the Sky Club and they have taken A16 from an overflow gate to a portion of their real estate. They have also begun utilizing A5 not only for CDG but also for some domestic ops. Based on that real estate, they are massively under-utilizing what they have. In fact, Delta corporate real estate was out in IND about a year ago looking into areas they could downsize and did a huge about-face.

I don't see IND becoming the next RDU, but I think we're going to see some interesting stuff.
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2018

Thu Sep 06, 2018 2:42 am

floridaflyboy wrote:
ADrum23 wrote:
fedex1 wrote:
So folks think a 50-60 flight per day Delta operation at its maximum at IND? I am asking.


While I do think a DL focus city in IND would be nice, I would be shocked if it happened. With CVG right down the road and DTW and MSP nearby, there isn't a need for another DL focus city in IND, or anywhere else east of the Mississippi for that matter.


I tend to agree with you that Delta is well served in the Midwest as it is, I do have to point out that I think DTW is more problematic for IND than MSP. That said, I think there are likely a few more cities that we are going to see connected to IND in the near-medium term future. In speaking with the station leaders, they are planning an expansion of the Sky Club and they have taken A16 from an overflow gate to a portion of their real estate. They have also begun utilizing A5 not only for CDG but also for some domestic ops. Based on that real estate, they are massively under-utilizing what they have. In fact, Delta corporate real estate was out in IND about a year ago looking into areas they could downsize and did a huge about-face.

I don't see IND becoming the next RDU, but I think we're going to see some interesting stuff.


The only other city I see joining the ranks of BOS, CVG and RDU in becoming an official DL focus city is.............

Never mind. I don’t want to reopen a can of worms. :)
 
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Midwestindy
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2018

Thu Sep 06, 2018 6:12 am

ADrum23 wrote:
floridaflyboy wrote:
ADrum23 wrote:

While I do think a DL focus city in IND would be nice, I would be shocked if it happened. With CVG right down the road and DTW and MSP nearby, there isn't a need for another DL focus city in IND, or anywhere else east of the Mississippi for that matter.


I tend to agree with you that Delta is well served in the Midwest as it is, I do have to point out that I think DTW is more problematic for IND than MSP. That said, I think there are likely a few more cities that we are going to see connected to IND in the near-medium term future. In speaking with the station leaders, they are planning an expansion of the Sky Club and they have taken A16 from an overflow gate to a portion of their real estate. They have also begun utilizing A5 not only for CDG but also for some domestic ops. Based on that real estate, they are massively under-utilizing what they have. In fact, Delta corporate real estate was out in IND about a year ago looking into areas they could downsize and did a huge about-face.

I don't see IND becoming the next RDU, but I think we're going to see some interesting stuff.


The only other city I see joining the ranks of BOS, CVG and RDU in becoming an official DL focus city is.............

Never mind. I don’t want to reopen a can of worms. :)


There is no evidence that AUS is going to become anything like BOS, CVG, or RDU. IND won't either, but at least IND has the gate space (DL has 11 gates) and FF base for a smallish size focus city operation.

Proximity to DTW or MSP shouldn't be an issue, as no significant amount of connecting traffic will be drawn away from either of those markets.

I'm assuming the Skyclub expansion will come with an announcement of new routes/markets
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ADrum23
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2018

Thu Sep 06, 2018 11:18 am

Midwestindy wrote:
ADrum23 wrote:
floridaflyboy wrote:

I tend to agree with you that Delta is well served in the Midwest as it is, I do have to point out that I think DTW is more problematic for IND than MSP. That said, I think there are likely a few more cities that we are going to see connected to IND in the near-medium term future. In speaking with the station leaders, they are planning an expansion of the Sky Club and they have taken A16 from an overflow gate to a portion of their real estate. They have also begun utilizing A5 not only for CDG but also for some domestic ops. Based on that real estate, they are massively under-utilizing what they have. In fact, Delta corporate real estate was out in IND about a year ago looking into areas they could downsize and did a huge about-face.

I don't see IND becoming the next RDU, but I think we're going to see some interesting stuff.


The only other city I see joining the ranks of BOS, CVG and RDU in becoming an official DL focus city is.............

Never mind. I don’t want to reopen a can of worms. :)


There is no evidence that AUS is going to become anything like BOS, CVG, or RDU. IND won't either, but at least IND has the gate space (DL has 11 gates) and FF base for a smallish size focus city operation.

Proximity to DTW or MSP shouldn't be an issue, as no significant amount of connecting traffic will be drawn away from either of those markets.

I'm assuming the Skyclub expansion will come with an announcement of new routes/markets


Again, I’m not going to reopen the AUS debate because we’ll never agree there, and that’s fine (though I will say I have retracted some of my earlier beliefs/statements about the subject).

As to IND, if they have 11 gates, then they are indeed underutilizing them. That is enough where they indeed could expand beyond 50-60 flights. And when I talk about proximity to DTW/MSP/CVG, I’m not as worried about connecting traffic so much as I am about DL spreading their resources too thin. Even though they are profitable and well managed today, that doesn’t mean they always will be, and if they had to cut back in the future, IND (and CVG) would likely bear the brunt of that (assuming they expand to 50-60 flights).
 
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2018

Thu Sep 06, 2018 1:11 pm

As mentioned, Focus Cities are not designed to connect pax. Obviously some connections still happen, but the goal of the Focus City is to capture as much of the local OD as possible, and then offer direct flights that can supported almost entirely by the local OD.

If we were instead talking about a new DL hub at IND, than yes proximity to DTW, MSP, etc. would come into play. But the end goal with the Delta focus city is to make Indy’s business contracts at local FF base loyal to Delta.

If anything, the close proximity to DTW, MSP, etc. actually helps IND in that regard. Because if the local Indy OD is not able to support a IND-SJC flight for example, it is nice to have DTW or MSP (with numerous frequencies to IND) just a short flight away for an easy connection. I would argue that if MSP/DTW weren’t there, pax would be less likely to be loyal to DL as they’d chose connecting on AA/UA in ORD instead for the SJC type destinations.

And because of that reason, IND may actually be a better focus city for DL than AUS. Unlike IND having DL hubs nearby, AUS does not. Thus for a hypothetical AUS focus city, on the routes AUS is not able to support with local OD, the local Austin based traffic will then still want to connect on AA/UA/WN (in DFW/IAH/DAL).
 
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2018

Thu Sep 06, 2018 1:29 pm

I think it’s a given that any dl focus cities at ind will generate much better than at aus. But the idea of aus focus city is more for strategic reason. Just like dl incursion into sea and Boston, which are bleeding money but they think it’s a good long term strategic play.
 
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Midwestindy
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2018

Thu Sep 06, 2018 2:47 pm

kavok wrote:
As mentioned, Focus Cities are not designed to connect pax. Obviously some connections still happen, but the goal of the Focus City is to capture as much of the local OD as possible, and then offer direct flights that can supported almost entirely by the local OD.

If we were instead talking about a new DL hub at IND, than yes proximity to DTW, MSP, etc. would come into play. But the end goal with the Delta focus city is to make Indy’s business contracts at local FF base loyal to Delta.

If anything, the close proximity to DTW, MSP, etc. actually helps IND in that regard. Because if the local Indy OD is not able to support a IND-SJC flight for example, it is nice to have DTW or MSP (with numerous frequencies to IND) just a short flight away for an easy connection. I would argue that if MSP/DTW weren’t there, pax would be less likely to be loyal to DL as they’d chose connecting on AA/UA in ORD instead for the SJC type destinations.

And because of that reason, IND may actually be a better focus city for DL than AUS. Unlike IND having DL hubs nearby, AUS does not. Thus for a hypothetical AUS focus city, on the routes AUS is not able to support with local OD, the local Austin based traffic will then still want to connect on AA/UA/WN (in DFW/IAH/DAL).


Yeah I agree with this, hubs in close proximity has allowed DL to become dominant in the midwest

To the connections part, I think O&D will be a big piece, but the airport seems to think there will be a sizable amount of connections (relatively speaking)

ADrum23 wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:
ADrum23 wrote:

The only other city I see joining the ranks of BOS, CVG and RDU in becoming an official DL focus city is.............

Never mind. I don’t want to reopen a can of worms. :)


There is no evidence that AUS is going to become anything like BOS, CVG, or RDU. IND won't either, but at least IND has the gate space (DL has 11 gates) and FF base for a smallish size focus city operation.

Proximity to DTW or MSP shouldn't be an issue, as no significant amount of connecting traffic will be drawn away from either of those markets.

I'm assuming the Skyclub expansion will come with an announcement of new routes/markets


Again, I’m not going to reopen the AUS debate because we’ll never agree there, and that’s fine (though I will say I have retracted some of my earlier beliefs/statements about the subject).

As to IND, if they have 11 gates, then they are indeed underutilizing them. That is enough where they indeed could expand beyond 50-60 flights. And when I talk about proximity to DTW/MSP/CVG, I’m not as worried about connecting traffic so much as I am about DL spreading their resources too thin. Even though they are profitable and well managed today, that doesn’t mean they always will be, and if they had to cut back in the future, IND (and CVG) would likely bear the brunt of that (assuming they expand to 50-60 flights).


Correct, it wouldn't really make sense for DL to expand their number of gates to 11 unless they thought they needed them. For reference I believe DL at RDU has 11 gates with ~70 departures.

Today they could comfortably fit their operation in A6, A7, A8, A10, A11, and A12 (+A5 for CDG).
Departures
Gate Uses
A5 2x
A6 4x
A7 5x
A8 5x
A10 2x
A11 7x
A12 1x
A13 1x
A14 4x
A15 1x
A16 2x
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Bluegrass60
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2018

Thu Sep 06, 2018 4:17 pm

"Focus Cities are not designed to connect pax" - depends on the airline. A Focus City for WN is definitely designed for connections. (MDW, BWI, BNA, STL, MCI, PHX, DEN etc) I suspect DL focus cities are also designed to allow for connections BUT O&D would be the main driver. (RDU cites 10% connecting passengers for DL; CVG is probably higher %) AUS was selected to be a Focus City by DL in June.
 
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2018

Thu Sep 06, 2018 6:42 pm

RDU total passenger connections in Jul was only 0.01% and even if Delta was all 100% of the passengers, that would only be 0.04%.. so 10% is kinda strong.. (Total Enplanned 598K, Total Connected 2.3K).. Total Deplaned 603K, Total connected 2.3K) ... Ave load factor 86.6%.... check it out on RDU . Com —> Airport Authority —> Statistics July 2018.. Delta had about 180K each way...
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N292UX
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2018

Thu Sep 06, 2018 7:06 pm

A focus city operation for DL in IND could definitely happen. Focus cities are built on local traffic, not connecting traffic, so it isn't a death sentence if there are 2 focus cities within a few hours of each other.

Having connecting hubs within a few hours is not a recipe for success. Just ask US when they had hubs in BWI, PIT, and PHL at the same time.
 
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zackary747
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2018

Thu Sep 06, 2018 7:12 pm

N292UX wrote:
A focus city operation for DL in IND could definitely happen. Focus cities are built on local traffic, not connecting traffic, so it isn't a death sentence if there are 2 focus cities within a few hours of each other.


I agree. Right now if you think about it Delta runs a 'unofficial focus city' looking at their network out of here. ANet tends to have this fallacy that if another airport is close things will hit the fan. The reality is IF the business climate and the collaboration between the business community and local government(s) is of good quality said airport can get any flight they want as long as the numbers work.

People thought for years that IND/CVG-CDG would not co-exist. 10 years ago they would of been correct, but the reality from an economic development and business climate standpoint Indiana and Indianapolis is not the same place it was 10 years ago. As the business community gets stronger here more successful things will come out of it.
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zackary747
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2018

Thu Sep 06, 2018 7:14 pm

Bluegrass60 wrote:
"Focus Cities are not designed to connect pax" - depends on the airline. A Focus City for WN is definitely designed for connections. (MDW, BWI, BNA, STL, MCI, PHX, DEN etc) I suspect DL focus cities are also designed to allow for connections BUT O&D would be the main driver. (RDU cites 10% connecting passengers for DL; CVG is probably higher %) AUS was selected to be a Focus City by DL in June.


WN stations that are not focus citys also get connecting traffic (granted the number is much smaller when you compare.)

My friend flew BWI-IND-MCO when he was going on vacation to Florida.
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Midwestindy
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2018

Thu Sep 06, 2018 7:18 pm

ERJ170 wrote:
RDU total passenger connections in Jul was only 0.01% and even if Delta was all 100% of the passengers, that would only be 0.04%.. so 10% is kinda strong.. (Total Enplanned 598K, Total Connected 2.3K).. Total Deplaned 603K, Total connected 2.3K) ... Ave load factor 86.6%.... check it out on RDU . Com —> Airport Authority —> Statistics July 2018.. Delta had about 180K each way...


I find that almost impossible to believe, as IND has somewhere around 200k enplaned connecting passengers per year.

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Midwestindy
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2018

Thu Sep 06, 2018 7:37 pm

zackary747 wrote:
Bluegrass60 wrote:
"Focus Cities are not designed to connect pax" - depends on the airline. A Focus City for WN is definitely designed for connections. (MDW, BWI, BNA, STL, MCI, PHX, DEN etc) I suspect DL focus cities are also designed to allow for connections BUT O&D would be the main driver. (RDU cites 10% connecting passengers for DL; CVG is probably higher %) AUS was selected to be a Focus City by DL in June.


WN stations that are not focus citys also get connecting traffic (granted the number is much smaller when you compare.)

My friend flew BWI-IND-MCO when he was going on vacation to Florida.


WN has a weird model where basically every station gets connecting traffic, the EWR-IND flights send around 15-25% people connecting through IND.
Next spring IND is a significant connecting point for these routes to RSW: LAS-IND-RSW, RSW-IND-LAX, and OAK-IND-RSW.

So, WN isn't very selective about connecting traffic
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beerbus
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2018

Thu Sep 06, 2018 8:05 pm

N292UX wrote:
A focus city operation for DL in IND could definitely happen. Focus cities are built on local traffic, not connecting traffic, so it isn't a death sentence if there are 2 focus cities within a few hours of each other.

Having connecting hubs within a few hours is not a recipe for success. Just ask US when they had hubs in BWI, PIT, and PHL at the same time.


The situation with DL and IND is different than US Air's.

I was closely involved with the NW operation in the Ohio Valley, going back before the NW RC merger.

We believed that IND had an ideal location within the the NW hub structure. DTW, MSP, and MEM allowed for omni-directional one-stop connections to nearly every on-line city.

This gave NW an advantage on elapsed-times for numerous city pairs in every direction from IND. This was a significant advantage in the days of CRS when elapsed time was one of the primary metrics that drove what air line went to the top of the Travel Agent CRS CRT when 95% of airline tickets were booked over Agency CRS.

After RC started with four DTW flights, additional flights were added to MSP and MEM. This provided synergy for NW to grow marketshare, despite a poorly initiated RC/NW merger.

By the late 80's NW had grown to be the 2nd largest carrier from IND, only surpassed by US, with their small IND hub.

This continued through the 90's and 2000's, as NW added additional domestic connections, modernized facilities, the KL/NW JV, improved customer service, and numerous corporate agreements. NW maintained an enplaned passenger share larger than it's share of available seats, with higher RASM than competitors during the period.

This was the situation that led NW to build a focus city in IND in the Mid-00's.

That went by the wayside as DL wisely (in my opinion) elected to focus on their hubs, and merging the operation. The removal of RJ-200's, and the DC9-30 from the DL fleet also left DL with fewer options for the city pairs added by NW's focus city initiative.

Today, DL is still reaping the benefits of this of this 30 year history. Couple this with DL's historic strength over ATL, leads to a situation where I believe DL can add additional local origin flights from Indy to a few more spokes, leading the re-creation of what NW had in their focus city.
 
Bluegrass60
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2018

Thu Sep 06, 2018 8:06 pm

ERJ170 wrote:
RDU total passenger connections in Jul was only 0.01% and even if Delta was all 100% of the passengers, that would only be 0.04%.. so 10% is kinda strong.. (Total Enplanned 598K, Total Connected 2.3K).. Total Deplaned 603K, Total connected 2.3K) ... Ave load factor 86.6%.... check it out on RDU . Com —> Airport Authority —> Statistics July 2018.. Delta had about 180K each way...


"the 10% cited was from: https://www.newsobserver.com/news/busin ... l......Joe Esposito, Delta’s senior vice president for network planning said "The Triangle is one of Delta’s three “focus cities,” along with Cincinnati and Boston, that operate as mini-hubs; about 10 percent of Delta’s passengers at RDU are catching a connecting flight through the airport, Esposito said."
 
Bluegrass60
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2018

Thu Sep 06, 2018 10:48 pm

Nice article that talks about Delta A220 plans and Delta Focus Cities https://skift.com/2018/08/20/delta-will ... ss-routes/
 
Bluegrass60
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2018

Thu Sep 06, 2018 10:54 pm

Delta will look at launching new focus cities with the A220s in the longer term, once it will have taken a larger number of the jets. The carrier has been expanding point-to-point services outside of its bases for a while now.

https://www.ch-aviation.com/portal/news ... time-being
 
N292UX
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2018

Thu Sep 06, 2018 11:01 pm

Bluegrass60 wrote:
Nice article that talks about Delta A220 plans and Delta Focus Cities https://skift.com/2018/08/20/delta-will ... ss-routes/

SJC? That'd be interesting. It's definitely do able for a focus city, but there would likely be more competition than a market like RDU. AS and WN are both have focus cities there too. That being said, DL is also going head to head with B6 at BOS, and B6 has a much larger operation in BOS than either AS or WN have in SJC. DL already has a p2p route out of SJC, which is LAS.

As for IND, a focus city is definitely possible, but more likely there'd be just a few p2p routes added to reach a ~50 flight operation IND. Places like AUS, BDL, TPA, and MSY would be likely. DCA could add to depending on if DL can get slot(s) to support those flights.
 
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2018

Thu Sep 06, 2018 11:09 pm

N292UX wrote:
[Places like AUS, BDL, TPA, and MSY would be likely.


What makes you think any of those locations would make a good focus city for DL. AUS is heavily served and has no space. BDL? Seems unlikely. TPA is well served and a tourist destination with questionable yields. MSY is about the only one on the list that could be a solid candidate but DL hasn't shown much interest in them for some reason.
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ibthebigd
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2018

Thu Sep 06, 2018 11:10 pm

My guess is:

AUS
SAT
LAS
BDL
DCA*
PHL

International
MEX
TYO or ICN
PUJ

If they have any 50 seaters to spare I would add

MEM
MKE
BNA
PIT
CLE

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zackary747
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2018

Thu Sep 06, 2018 11:11 pm

Indy wrote:
N292UX wrote:
[Places like AUS, BDL, TPA, and MSY would be likely.


What makes you think any of those locations would make a good focus city for DL. AUS is heavily served and has no space. BDL? Seems unlikely. TPA is well served and a tourist destination with questionable yields. MSY is about the only one on the list that could be a solid candidate but DL hasn't shown much interest in them for some reason.


I think he is referring to cities that could be added by DL from IND.
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zackary747
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2018

Thu Sep 06, 2018 11:14 pm

ibthebigd wrote:
My guess is:

AUS
SAT
LAS
BDL
DCA*
PHL

International
MEX
TYO or ICN
PUJ

If they have any 50 seaters to spare I would add

MEM
MKE
BNA
PIT
CLE

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk


I think MEX is a AeroMexico add as they are a Delta partner.
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ADrum23
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2018

Thu Sep 06, 2018 11:27 pm

Indy wrote:
N292UX wrote:
[Places like AUS, BDL, TPA, and MSY would be likely.


What makes you think any of those locations would make a good focus city for DL. AUS is heavily served and has no space. BDL? Seems unlikely. TPA is well served and a tourist destination with questionable yields. MSY is about the only one on the list that could be a solid candidate but DL hasn't shown much interest in them for some reason.


Even though that list wasn't referring to new focus cities, why would DL open a focus city in MSY? What purpose would it serve?

Just because DL has a focus city in BOS, CVG, RDU, etc, does not mean they are going to go around the country and replicate that model in a bunch of markets. At the end of the day, they are still a hub-and-spoke carrier and cannot spread their resources too thin. The only two realistic candidates for becoming an official DL focus city are IND and AUS.
 
fedex1
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2018

Thu Sep 06, 2018 11:44 pm

Why not build IND up to 70-80 flights per day?? They have a huge catchment area, and have loyal FF base.
 
Indy
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2018

Fri Sep 07, 2018 1:01 am

zackary747 wrote:
Indy wrote:
N292UX wrote:
[Places like AUS, BDL, TPA, and MSY would be likely.


What makes you think any of those locations would make a good focus city for DL. AUS is heavily served and has no space. BDL? Seems unlikely. TPA is well served and a tourist destination with questionable yields. MSY is about the only one on the list that could be a solid candidate but DL hasn't shown much interest in them for some reason.


I think he is referring to cities that could be added by DL from IND.


My mistake. I thought it was about focus cities. Never mind me. Too many hours starring at databases lately.
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Indy
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2018

Fri Sep 07, 2018 1:12 am

ADrum23 wrote:
Even though that list wasn't referring to new focus cities, why would DL open a focus city in MSY? What purpose would it serve?

Just because DL has a focus city in BOS, CVG, RDU, etc, does not mean they are going to go around the country and replicate that model in a bunch of markets. At the end of the day, they are still a hub-and-spoke carrier and cannot spread their resources too thin. The only two realistic candidates for becoming an official DL focus city are IND and AUS.


MSY has a decent market, has solid tourism, and hasn't been saturated with service. Why do you think AUS would be a focus city? They are already saturated with service and don't really have room for DL to grow. Heck, good routes will be slim pickings in IND too. They could offer cheap seats to drive out some of the LCC competition but I don't think they will do that. What untapped markets does AUS have that DL could come in and start? Same goes for IND. There are a few unserved markets and some that have light service like SAN. I would like to see people come up with lists for both markets. Where would the new flights go from IND and AUS.
Indy = Indianapolis and not Independence Air
 
flyboy80
Posts: 2014
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2018

Fri Sep 07, 2018 1:33 am

I have a hard time imagining Delta with much more than now, in-fact I wonder sometimes if the three west coast hubs will sustain. I mean how much o and d traffic does Indy have that could really sustain connections? And why does Delta sit on so many gates here, might that change with the use agreement being renegotiated?
 
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Midwestindy
Posts: 3939
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2018

Fri Sep 07, 2018 1:45 am

flyboy80 wrote:
I have a hard time imagining Delta with much more than now, in-fact I wonder sometimes if the three west coast hubs will sustain. I mean how much o and d traffic does Indy have that could really sustain connections? And why does Delta sit on so many gates here, might that change with the use agreement being renegotiated?


Yes that could change, but even if they lost 2-3 gates they still have more than enough room.

SEA could go seasonal, but that isn't the worst thing in the world

fedex1 wrote:
Why not build IND up to 70-80 flights per day?? They have a huge catchment area, and have loyal FF base.


There are not enough viable markets to expand that much

Indy wrote:
There are a few unserved markets and some that have light service like SAN. I would like to see people come up with lists for both markets. Where would the new flights go from IND and AUS.


I did an analysis a while back using QSI, unfortunately the search function on this site is messed up or I would pull it up

+1 AUS (competition on this route is weak, WN Sun only, G4 2x weekly seasonally, F9 2x weekly seasonally)
+1 SAT
+1 TPA (would work similar to MCO)
+1 BDL
+1 MIA or FLL (maybe seasonal)
+1 MEX
+1 LAS
+2 DCA (if they could get slots)
+1 MSY
+1 BOS
+1 MCO
+1 LAX

----
Not likely
+1 MEM
+1 MKE
+1 SAN
+1 PVD
+2 EWR (would be similar to RDU and CVG)
+1 TYO (likely not going to happen on DL, with their NRT operation on the brink of being gone)
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ADrum23
Posts: 1789
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2018

Fri Sep 07, 2018 1:56 am

Indy wrote:
ADrum23 wrote:
Even though that list wasn't referring to new focus cities, why would DL open a focus city in MSY? What purpose would it serve?

Just because DL has a focus city in BOS, CVG, RDU, etc, does not mean they are going to go around the country and replicate that model in a bunch of markets. At the end of the day, they are still a hub-and-spoke carrier and cannot spread their resources too thin. The only two realistic candidates for becoming an official DL focus city are IND and AUS.


MSY has a decent market, has solid tourism, and hasn't been saturated with service. Why do you think AUS would be a focus city? They are already saturated with service and don't really have room for DL to grow. Heck, good routes will be slim pickings in IND too. They could offer cheap seats to drive out some of the LCC competition but I don't think they will do that. What untapped markets does AUS have that DL could come in and start? Same goes for IND. There are a few unserved markets and some that have light service like SAN. I would like to see people come up with lists for both markets. Where would the new flights go from IND and AUS.


First, AUS is not as saturated with service as you may think. A lot of growth as of late has been from F9, G4, etc, and those are ULCC's with less than daily routes and some even seasonal. Second, WN is not as big as you think at AUS; only 70 flights a day and some of the routes served are less than daily or infrequent frequencies.

Why do I believe AUS becomes an official DL focus city? Because DL is the only major US carrier that does not have a presence in the booming Texas market (I don't think people fully realize just how booming Texas is) and AUS (the fastest growing market in the country) is their last chance to get into it. Plus, AUS is a city that fits the profile of a DL city (tech hub with a young, millennial population and high yielding business traffic). Now, I will admit I got carried away a few months ago in thinking AUS could become another SLC-sized hub, I no longer believe that. I believe DL will go smaller with a large focus city/small hub model (100-150 flights max) that will be solely focused on O&D AUS traffic, as well as a little bit of connecting Texas and other south central US traffic to the DL network. Now, the 100-150 flights won't happen overnight, it will happen over time as new gates are built and DL builds up their FF base. It would likely only be between 50-70 in the short term. DL is already making good progress with them recently surpassing UA to become the #3 carrier in AUS.

True, there aren't a lot of unserved routes out of AUS or IND, but just because a route is served already doesn't mean DL can't jump onto it (see SEA or BOS). Again, like I said above, a lot of routes in both markets have infrequent frequencies and less than daily flights. I'm pretty sure if DL built up a decent sized presence, they'd win over a fair amount of business contracts. Plus DL has the advantage of regional jets and the forthcoming A220's that will have lower CASM than WN 737's, giving them a further advantage.
 
N292UX
Posts: 388
Joined: Sun Jan 01, 2017 7:08 pm

Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2018

Fri Sep 07, 2018 2:34 am

Midwestindy wrote:
flyboy80 wrote:
I have a hard time imagining Delta with much more than now, in-fact I wonder sometimes if the three west coast hubs will sustain. I mean how much o and d traffic does Indy have that could really sustain connections? And why does Delta sit on so many gates here, might that change with the use agreement being renegotiated?


Yes that could change, but even if they lost 2-3 gates they still have more than enough room.

SEA could go seasonal, but that isn't the worst thing in the world

fedex1 wrote:
Why not build IND up to 70-80 flights per day?? They have a huge catchment area, and have loyal FF base.


There are not enough viable markets to expand that much

Indy wrote:
There are a few unserved markets and some that have light service like SAN. I would like to see people come up with lists for both markets. Where would the new flights go from IND and AUS.


I did an analysis a while back using QSI, unfortunately the search function on this site is messed up or I would pull it up

+1 AUS (competition on this route is weak, WN Sun only, G4 2x weekly seasonally, F9 2x weekly seasonally)
+1 SAT
+1 TPA (would work similar to MCO)
+1 BDL
+1 MIA or FLL (maybe seasonal)
+1 MEX
+1 LAS
+2 DCA (if they could get slots)
+1 MSY
+1 BOS
+1 MCO
+1 LAX

----
Not likely
+1 MEM
+1 MKE
+1 SAN
+1 PVD
+2 EWR (would be similar to RDU and CVG)
+1 TYO (likely not going to happen on DL, with their NRT operation on the brink of being gone)

I don't think MEX on DL is very likely. I could eventually see something possibly happening on AM metal. Do any of Aeromexico Connect's planes have the legs to reach IND from MEX?
 
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Midwestindy
Posts: 3939
Joined: Sun Mar 12, 2017 3:56 am

Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2018

Fri Sep 07, 2018 2:37 am

N292UX wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:
flyboy80 wrote:
I have a hard time imagining Delta with much more than now, in-fact I wonder sometimes if the three west coast hubs will sustain. I mean how much o and d traffic does Indy have that could really sustain connections? And why does Delta sit on so many gates here, might that change with the use agreement being renegotiated?


Yes that could change, but even if they lost 2-3 gates they still have more than enough room.

SEA could go seasonal, but that isn't the worst thing in the world

fedex1 wrote:
Why not build IND up to 70-80 flights per day?? They have a huge catchment area, and have loyal FF base.


There are not enough viable markets to expand that much

Indy wrote:
There are a few unserved markets and some that have light service like SAN. I would like to see people come up with lists for both markets. Where would the new flights go from IND and AUS.


I did an analysis a while back using QSI, unfortunately the search function on this site is messed up or I would pull it up

+1 AUS (competition on this route is weak, WN Sun only, G4 2x weekly seasonally, F9 2x weekly seasonally)
+1 SAT
+1 TPA (would work similar to MCO)
+1 BDL
+1 MIA or FLL (maybe seasonal)
+1 MEX
+1 LAS
+2 DCA (if they could get slots)
+1 MSY
+1 BOS
+1 MCO
+1 LAX

----
Not likely
+1 MEM
+1 MKE
+1 SAN
+1 PVD
+2 EWR (would be similar to RDU and CVG)
+1 TYO (likely not going to happen on DL, with their NRT operation on the brink of being gone)

I don't think MEX on DL is very likely. I could eventually see something possibly happening on AM metal. Do any of Aeromexico Connect's planes have the legs to reach IND from MEX?


IND-MEX is happening, and the announcement is supposed to happen sometime in the next few months. The Governor of IND is allocating money for it.....

No idea which equipment they will use though....
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Bluegrass60
Posts: 274
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2018

Fri Sep 07, 2018 11:43 am

All your comments regarding Delta's future selection of focus cities fail to understand the basis for those future plans...the A220. That is a 100 seater with excellent economics and range for all types of routes. Delta has orders for 75 of those. Some will be used to replace ERJ 170/175 and other RJs. Others will be used for new routes via new Focus Cities. AUS has already been named a Focus City by Delta in June 2018. A Focus city op by Delta is not likely to have more than 85 flights or so. Focus City selection likely to be cities with growing business based economies + strong convention/tourism + good geography for connections + under-served.
 
Indy
Posts: 4840
Joined: Thu Jan 20, 2005 1:37 pm

Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2018

Fri Sep 07, 2018 12:06 pm

Bluegrass60 wrote:
All your comments regarding Delta's future selection of focus cities fail to understand the basis for those future plans...the A220. That is a 100 seater with excellent economics and range for all types of routes. Delta has orders for 75 of those. Some will be used to replace ERJ 170/175 and other RJs. Others will be used for new routes via new Focus Cities. AUS has already been named a Focus City by Delta in June 2018. A Focus city op by Delta is not likely to have more than 85 flights or so. Focus City selection likely to be cities with growing business based economies + strong convention/tourism + good geography for connections + under-served.


Can you show where DL named AUS as a focus city? All I've seen is speculation by the media.
Indy = Indianapolis and not Independence Air
 
floridaflyboy
Posts: 1587
Joined: Sat Jun 03, 2006 3:26 pm

Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2018

Fri Sep 07, 2018 12:27 pm

N292UX wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:
flyboy80 wrote:
I have a hard time imagining Delta with much more than now, in-fact I wonder sometimes if the three west coast hubs will sustain. I mean how much o and d traffic does Indy have that could really sustain connections? And why does Delta sit on so many gates here, might that change with the use agreement being renegotiated?


Yes that could change, but even if they lost 2-3 gates they still have more than enough room.

SEA could go seasonal, but that isn't the worst thing in the world

fedex1 wrote:
Why not build IND up to 70-80 flights per day?? They have a huge catchment area, and have loyal FF base.


There are not enough viable markets to expand that much

Indy wrote:
There are a few unserved markets and some that have light service like SAN. I would like to see people come up with lists for both markets. Where would the new flights go from IND and AUS.


I did an analysis a while back using QSI, unfortunately the search function on this site is messed up or I would pull it up

+1 AUS (competition on this route is weak, WN Sun only, G4 2x weekly seasonally, F9 2x weekly seasonally)
+1 SAT
+1 TPA (would work similar to MCO)
+1 BDL
+1 MIA or FLL (maybe seasonal)
+1 MEX
+1 LAS
+2 DCA (if they could get slots)
+1 MSY
+1 BOS
+1 MCO
+1 LAX

----
Not likely
+1 MEM
+1 MKE
+1 SAN
+1 PVD
+2 EWR (would be similar to RDU and CVG)
+1 TYO (likely not going to happen on DL, with their NRT operation on the brink of being gone)

I don't think MEX on DL is very likely. I could eventually see something possibly happening on AM metal. Do any of Aeromexico Connect's planes have the legs to reach IND from MEX?


While I agree that it won't likely be on DL metal, I definitely think it's going to happen in the short-to-medium term. As to your question, the 190 has the legs to do that long of a flight, however, I don't know how the altitude and summer temps in MEX would effect its ability to do that with a full load.
Good goes around!
 
Bluegrass60
Posts: 274
Joined: Wed Feb 21, 2018 1:15 am

Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2018

Fri Sep 07, 2018 12:42 pm

Indy wrote:
Bluegrass60 wrote:
All your comments regarding Delta's future selection of focus cities fail to understand the basis for those future plans...the A220. That is a 100 seater with excellent economics and range for all types of routes. Delta has orders for 75 of those. Some will be used to replace ERJ 170/175 and other RJs. Others will be used for new routes via new Focus Cities. AUS has already been named a Focus City by Delta in June 2018. A Focus city op by Delta is not likely to have more than 85 flights or so. Focus City selection likely to be cities with growing business based economies + strong convention/tourism + good geography for connections + under-served.


Can you show where DL named AUS as a focus city? All I've seen is speculation by the media.



"https://www.kxan.com/news/local/austin/delta-chooses-austin-as-focus-city-bringing-more-direct-flights/1255011066"
 
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Midwestindy
Posts: 3939
Joined: Sun Mar 12, 2017 3:56 am

Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2018

Fri Sep 07, 2018 1:39 pm

Bluegrass60 wrote:
Indy wrote:
Bluegrass60 wrote:
All your comments regarding Delta's future selection of focus cities fail to understand the basis for those future plans...the A220. That is a 100 seater with excellent economics and range for all types of routes. Delta has orders for 75 of those. Some will be used to replace ERJ 170/175 and other RJs. Others will be used for new routes via new Focus Cities. AUS has already been named a Focus City by Delta in June 2018. A Focus city op by Delta is not likely to have more than 85 flights or so. Focus City selection likely to be cities with growing business based economies + strong convention/tourism + good geography for connections + under-served.


Can you show where DL named AUS as a focus city? All I've seen is speculation by the media.



"https://www.kxan.com/news/local/austin/delta-chooses-austin-as-focus-city-bringing-more-direct-flights/1255011066"


Literally not a single word of that article is a quote from Delta

For a little background, this is based off of a job posting made on DL's website and it took off from there.
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Midwestindy
Posts: 3939
Joined: Sun Mar 12, 2017 3:56 am

Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2018

Fri Sep 07, 2018 1:42 pm

Bluegrass60 wrote:
All your comments regarding Delta's future selection of focus cities fail to understand the basis for those future plans...the A220. That is a 100 seater with excellent economics and range for all types of routes. Delta has orders for 75 of those. Some will be used to replace ERJ 170/175 and other RJs. Others will be used for new routes via new Focus Cities. AUS has already been named a Focus City by Delta in June 2018. A Focus city op by Delta is not likely to have more than 85 flights or so. Focus City selection likely to be cities with growing business based economies + strong convention/tourism + good geography for connections + under-served.


The primary tool of choice will likely be the E170/175 as Republic Airline has one of their largest bases in IND.
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Bluegrass60
Posts: 274
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2018

Fri Sep 07, 2018 1:52 pm

Midwestindy wrote:
Bluegrass60 wrote:
Indy wrote:

Can you show where DL named AUS as a focus city? All I've seen is speculation by the media.



"https://www.kxan.com/news/local/austin/delta-chooses-austin-as-focus-city-bringing-more-direct-flights/1255011066"


Literally not a single word of that article is a quote from Delta

For a little background, this is based off of a job posting made on DL's website and it took off from there.


"SAE will develop relationships and ties in the Austin market with key community and industry organizations to support Delta's Focus City initiative......since the Job Posting was from Delta...seems very logical that Delta in fact has plans to name AUS a Focus City."
 
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ERJ170
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2018

Fri Sep 07, 2018 5:11 pm

So... to clarify.. that was for a sales position:. RDU had the same thing.. covering NC, SC, and BNA... it’s not calling AUS a focus city or saying it will be a focus city, it was for Sales, Marketing, and Brand reach with a focus area../
Aiming High and going far..
 
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Midwestindy
Posts: 3939
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2018

Fri Sep 07, 2018 7:52 pm

https://www.ibj.com/articles/70355-airp ... w-momentum

WN:
Dallas-based Southwest is least likely to cut service in markets where it has a strong presence, a large customer base and strong customer loyalty, Southwest Airlines spokesman Chris Mainz said.

“Indianapolis is so strong. If anything, I think we probably view it as a growth market,” Mainz said.
Hahaha, whatever you say.....

AA
"American Airlines says it’s happy with its performance in Indianapolis, and it hasn’t had any fare increases or scheduling cuts in this market as a result of higher fuel prices."
"As long as [Indianapolis] keeps performing well, we’ll just keep looking at it and evaluating it,” said Nichelle Tait, an American Airlines spokeswoman."

G4
"“If we didn’t see the demand there and the potential to grow, we wouldn’t have put a base there,” Allegiant spokeswoman Hilarie Grey said."

"When fuel prices rise, the airline typically cuts frequency on some of its midweek flights, said Allegiant Vice President of Revenue Drew Wells."
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User avatar
zackary747
Posts: 583
Joined: Sat Aug 26, 2017 10:41 am

Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2018

Fri Sep 07, 2018 8:07 pm

Midwestindy wrote:
https://www.ibj.com/articles/70355-airport-chief-hopeful-rising-fuel-costs-wont-slow-momentum

WN:
Dallas-based Southwest is least likely to cut service in markets where it has a strong presence, a large customer base and strong customer loyalty, Southwest Airlines spokesman Chris Mainz said.

“Indianapolis is so strong. If anything, I think we probably view it as a growth market,” Mainz said.
Hahaha, whatever you say.....

AA
"American Airlines says it’s happy with its performance in Indianapolis, and it hasn’t had any fare increases or scheduling cuts in this market as a result of higher fuel prices."
"As long as [Indianapolis] keeps performing well, we’ll just keep looking at it and evaluating it,” said Nichelle Tait, an American Airlines spokeswoman."

G4
"“If we didn’t see the demand there and the potential to grow, we wouldn’t have put a base there,” Allegiant spokeswoman Hilarie Grey said."

"When fuel prices rise, the airline typically cuts frequency on some of its midweek flights, said Allegiant Vice President of Revenue Drew Wells."


Wonder why they didn't review the other airlines. DL, AS, F9.
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Bluegrass60
Posts: 274
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2018

Fri Sep 07, 2018 8:08 pm

Boyd said the airports he expect to get international air service in the coming years includes Albany International Airport (ALB), Manchester-Boston International Airport (MHT), T.F. Green Airport (PVD), Richmond International Airport (RIC), Norfolk International Airport(ORF), Charleston International Airport (CHS) and Jacksonville International Airport (JAX). (not mentioned but SDF is part of this group too; international = Canada or Mexico or Caribbean in addition to Europe)

Joe Esposito, senior vice president-network planning, for Delta Air Lines, said international flights from Indianapolis International Airport (IND) and Orlando International Airport (MCO) have been very successful for the airline and show the opportunities available.

“We look at what places like Indianapolis and how they can be successful when they connect in Paris or Amsterdam and because we have such a great connecting complex with our partners in Europe, that’s why those can be so successful,” he said. “We’re looking for more of those opportunities.”

Esposito said Delta continues to enhance its service at hub airports and focus airports, such as Cincinnati/Northern Kentucky International Airport (CVG), Boston Logan International Airport (BOS) and Raleigh-Durham International Airport (RDU).

While Delta has grown flights at RDU, including a new route to Chicago O’Hare International Airport (ORD), Esposito said calls from the Raleigh business community for a direct flight to Asia are not in the cards for now.

“I think that’s going to be a little bit farther down the road,” he said. “For right now, we connect customers over multiple gateways.”
 
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ERJ170
Posts: 5854
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2018

Fri Sep 07, 2018 10:55 pm

Bluegrass60 wrote:

While Delta has grown flights at RDU, including a new route to Chicago O’Hare International Airport (ORD), Esposito said calls from the Raleigh business community for a direct flight to Asia are not in the cards for now.

“I think that’s going to be a little bit farther down the road,” he said. “For right now, we connect customers over multiple gateways.”


Even if Joe wanted to announce RDU-Asia tomorrow, he couldn’t.. the current runway is not long enough.. that’s why RDU is looking at 5 years from now... that’s when the new runway should be complete. But believe me, when that runway is at 98% complete, there will be a n Asia flight. The sponsors are already lined up and the flight already has the guarantee and incentives in place... so no worries...
Aiming High and going far..
 
ADrum23
Posts: 1789
Joined: Fri Jul 14, 2017 11:54 pm

Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2018

Fri Sep 07, 2018 11:46 pm

ERJ170 wrote:
Bluegrass60 wrote:

While Delta has grown flights at RDU, including a new route to Chicago O’Hare International Airport (ORD), Esposito said calls from the Raleigh business community for a direct flight to Asia are not in the cards for now.

“I think that’s going to be a little bit farther down the road,” he said. “For right now, we connect customers over multiple gateways.”


Even if Joe wanted to announce RDU-Asia tomorrow, he couldn’t.. the current runway is not long enough.. that’s why RDU is looking at 5 years from now... that’s when the new runway should be complete. But believe me, when that runway is at 98% complete, there will be a n Asia flight. The sponsors are already lined up and the flight already has the guarantee and incentives in place... so no worries...


How exactly is the current 10,000 ft runway not long enough? The AA 772 doesn't seem to have any problems and I would imagine any RDU-Asia flight would be operated on a 789 or some type of plane like that. Is it a takeoff/landing weight issue as an Asia flight would need more fuel?

Also, DL won't be the one to introduce an Asia flight, it will likely be one of the Chinese carriers as RDU is interested in China (or at least that is what they say).
 
cvgComair
Posts: 2040
Joined: Thu Jul 07, 2016 3:48 pm

Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2018

Sat Sep 08, 2018 1:05 am

ERJ170 wrote:
Bluegrass60 wrote:

While Delta has grown flights at RDU, including a new route to Chicago O’Hare International Airport (ORD), Esposito said calls from the Raleigh business community for a direct flight to Asia are not in the cards for now.

“I think that’s going to be a little bit farther down the road,” he said. “For right now, we connect customers over multiple gateways.”


Even if Joe wanted to announce RDU-Asia tomorrow, he couldn’t.. the current runway is not long enough.. that’s why RDU is looking at 5 years from now... that’s when the new runway should be complete. But believe me, when that runway is at 98% complete, there will be a n Asia flight. The sponsors are already lined up and the flight already has the guarantee and incentives in place... so no worries...

???
 
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zackary747
Posts: 583
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2018

Sun Sep 09, 2018 3:29 am

I doubt this means much for the Asia flight, but I thought I would share this as general information as an Asia flight is on the horizon.

https://calendar.in.gov/site/gov/event/ ... -in-omaha/

Hopefully we hear some economic investment from Japanese companies after the conference. The more Asia travel we have the better.
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