stlgph
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2018

Thu Dec 13, 2018 2:41 pm

I think that's come up a couple of times on here -- with the Republic IND base you'd *think* that DL could pick up some cherry picking flying on the 170 series down to Florida even if it's a short season, etc., or some weekend flying in high season, like Southwest does.

Perhaps when the 220s come in...may provide some flexibility for this. That being said, I haven't looked, are the 220s replacements or they going to be additions to the total aircraft available for the DL network?

Of course the Boston expansion is going to be taking up a bit of fleet slack.
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kindeham
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2018

Thu Dec 13, 2018 6:52 pm

I believe the June numbers for CDG come out today...so I'll give my guestimate to see how close I can come this time. I think IND-CDG at 91.6% and CDG-IND at 73.2% Place your bets!
 
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Midwestindy
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2018

Thu Dec 13, 2018 7:33 pm

kindeham wrote:
I believe the June numbers for CDG come out today...so I'll give my guestimate to see how close I can come this time. I think IND-CDG at 91.6% and CDG-IND at 73.2% Place your bets!


JUNE
DL IND-CDG-91.8%; CDG-IND-70.3%
DL IND-CUN-89.9%; CUN-IND-90.1%
WN IND-CUN-81.8%; CUN-IND-80.7%
Jshank83 wrote:
AC data IND-YYZ-87.5%; YYZ-IND-78.5%

Thanks!
Analysis: Overall great int’l numbers, the IND-CDG-IND flights carried around the same amount of cargo as CVG-CDG-CVG. Plus the IND-CDG flight carried more pax than MCO-AMS, SLC-CDG, SLC-AMS, CVG-CDG, RDU-CDG, PIT-CDG, and EWR-CDG.

September
AS IND-SEA-75.9%; SEA-IND-89.2%
Analysis: Either DL or AS needs to change the time time on their IND-SEA flights, they don’t both need to leave at 6pm. One morning and one evening will be good for the market.

G4 IND-PIE-91.1%; PIE-IND-90.5%
G4 IND-SFB-85.3%; SFB-IND-83.4%
G4 IND-PGD-85.8%; PGD-IND-86.8%
G4 IND-LAS-89.0%; LAS-IND-91.4%
G4 IND-JAX-84.0%; JAX-IND-82.5%
G4 IND-FLL-77.2%; FLL-IND-85.6%
*G4 IND-CHS-62.5%; CHS-IND-63.4% Hurricane Florence may have impacted these numbers
Analysis: IND-CHS should be June-August only, everything else looks very good.

AA IND-CLT-70.6%; CLT-IND-70.7%
AA IND-PHL-72.7%; PHL-IND-72.7%
AA IND-ORD-71.7%; ORD-IND-75.6%
AA IND-DCA-78.5%; DCA-IND-75.6%
AA IND-LGA-81.9%; LGA-IND-76.3%
AA IND-PHX-79.3%; PHX-IND-77.5%
AA IND-MIA-76.6%; MIA-IND-78.1%
AA IND-JFK-81.0%; JFK-IND-80.5%
AA IND-DFW-79.4%; DFW-IND-80.8%
AA IND-LAX-68.9%; LAX-IND-80.9%
Analysis: IND-LAX 2x daily may be too much for the market during September, everything else is pretty typical for September. Watch the IND-PHL LFs however, as they will go up if F9 doesn’t bring back IND-PHL (more on that later).

DL IND-ATL-83.4%; ATL-IND-81.1%
DL IND-DTW-72.6%; DTW-IND-78.4%
DL IND-RDU-73.8%; RDU-IND-75.2%
DL IND-JFK-72.7%; JFK-IND-73.2%
DL IND-LGA-74.7%; LGA-IND-73.5%
DL IND-MSP-77.5%; MSP-IND-76.6%
DL IND-MCO-81.1%; MCO-IND-80.0%
DL IND-LAX-67.3%; LAX-IND-62.9%
DL IND-SEA-65.0%; SEA-IND-77.0%
DL IND-BOS-88.4%; BOS-IND-88.4%
DL IND-SLC-93.1%; SLC-IND-91.4%
Analysis: AA 2x daily service is putting a hit on the DL flights, and this will be something to watch for the LF data through December. IND-SLC is looking excellent, maybe they will keep the B738/A320 longer into the season. IND-BOS is looking great as well, so I expect to see 4x daily extended through September. Finally as mentioned earlier, the timing on the IND-SEA flights is not good for both carriers. There is plenty of room in the market for both, just not at the same time.

F9 IND-SAN-78.9%; SAN-IND-77.5% A321
F9 IND-PHL-60.6%; PHL-IND-59.0%
F9 IND-MCO-90.2%; MCO-IND-86.7% A321
F9 IND-LAS-91.9%; LAS-IND-81.4%
F9 IND-DEN-88.8%; DEN-IND-91.5%
F9 IND-AUS-83.3%; AUS-IND-74.9%
Analysis: Not much to say other than, I doubt IND-PHL will return at all next year.

WN IND-ATL-79.9%; ATL-IND-79.3%
WN IND-AUS-43.4%; AUS-IND-86.0%
WN IND-BOS-82.3%; BOS-IND-87.5%
WN IND-BWI-81.4%; BWI-IND-77.4%
WN IND-DAL-83.1%; DAL-IND-84.3%
WN IND-DEN-87.9%; DEN-IND-87.2%
WN IND-EWR-59.8%; EWR-IND-56.9%
WN IND-FLL-82.5%; FLL-IND-78.6%
WN IND-HOU-80.2%; HOU-IND-80.6%
WN IND-LAS-87.4%; LAS-IND-85.5%
WN IND-LAX-85.3%; LAX-IND-68.9%
WN IND-MCI-67.5%; MCI-IND-71.2%
WN IND-MCO-93.0%; MCO-IND-86.4%
WN IND-MDW-73.4%; MDW-IND-70.6%
WN IND-MSY-79.7%; MSY-IND-93.1%
WN IND-OAK-76.3%; OAK-IND-59.5%
WN IND-PHX-90.0%; PHX-IND-92.8%
WN IND-RSW-81.2%; RSW-IND-77.8%
WN IND-TPA-89.1%; TPA-IND-94.7%
Analysis: Core Markets are strong even in one of the weakest months. IND-OAK will improve moving forward, with AS gone after this months data UA probably won’t be running IND-SFO 2x outside of summer, which will be great for the route. Really surprised by the LFs on IND-BOS though, this might encourage WN to bring it back daily.

UA IND-EWR-83.3%; EWR-IND-83.0%
UA IND-SFO-60.4%; SFO-IND-66.2%
UA IND-IAD-72.2%; IAD-IND-70.5%
UA IND-IAH-87.1%; IAH-IND-89.5%
UA IND-DEN-89.7%; DEN-IND-93.0%
UA IND-ORD-80.8%; ORD-IND-74.8%
Analysis: IND-DEN is strong as usually, with EWR, ORD, and IAH being stronger than normal for this time of year. Way too much capacity was on IND-Bay Area for September though, UA was B739/B738, AS was A320, WN was 738. That is what caused the Bfs you see above. Also IND-IAD got A320 mainline, so that was what caused the lower than normal LF.
Last edited by Midwestindy on Thu Dec 13, 2018 7:51 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Jshank83
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2018

Thu Dec 13, 2018 7:38 pm

^I see AC data
87.5% out
78.5% in
 
kindeham
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2018

Thu Dec 13, 2018 8:09 pm

Midwestindy wrote:

JUNE
DL IND-CDG-91.8%; CDG-IND-70.3%
DL IND-CUN-89.9%; CUN-IND-90.1%
WN IND-CUN-81.8%; CUN-IND-80.7%


Well I was close on the outbound! We won't talk about the inbound....
 
ChasChandler
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2018

Thu Dec 13, 2018 8:52 pm

What gets me is the much higher outbound numbers from IND to CDG vs the other way around. How are those people getting back?
 
stlgph
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2018

Thu Dec 13, 2018 9:16 pm

ChasChandler wrote:
What gets me is the much higher outbound numbers from IND to CDG vs the other way around. How are those people getting back?


Number of reasons.
Thanks to OTAs, people can open jaws book - and find better times or price points for their convenience coming back on Delta via another hub or routing or perhaps another airline. This is sometimes the case for tour operators, too. Or business people might be doing a sweep - where they fly one way into Paris, then jet off to another city and then return from there with that other city being either in Asia or Africa or even South America.

Some people just might be taking a really long vacation. Or summer study abroad.
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Midwestindy
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2018

Thu Dec 13, 2018 10:02 pm

[code][/code]
ChasChandler wrote:
What gets me is the much higher outbound numbers from IND to CDG vs the other way around. How are those people getting back?


Just wait til next months numbers, you will see the opposite trend, with inbound at capacity and outbound average.
Last edited by Midwestindy on Thu Dec 13, 2018 10:07 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Midwestindy
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2018

Thu Dec 13, 2018 10:04 pm

stlgph wrote:
ChasChandler wrote:
What gets me is the much higher outbound numbers from IND to CDG vs the other way around. How are those people getting back?


Or business people might be doing a sweep - where they fly one way into Paris, then jet off to another city and then return from there with that other city being either in Asia or Africa or even South America.


Yep I have taken IND-CDG a few times, but never CDG-IND, it's usually pretty difficult timing wise to fly both IND-CDG-XXX and XXX-CDG-IND
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kindeham
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2018

Thu Dec 13, 2018 10:23 pm

Midwestindy wrote:

Just wait til next months numbers, you will see the opposite trend, with inbound at capacity and outbound average.


I know CDG-IND in July is crazy - mid 90's or so.
 
fedex1
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2018

Fri Dec 14, 2018 12:09 am

So IND carried more pax than CVG, RDU, EWR, and others for Delta. . . Did anyone see that happening?? Or was it just a new flight and people flocked?
 
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Midwestindy
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2018

Fri Dec 14, 2018 1:11 am

stlgph wrote:
I think that's come up a couple of times on here -- with the Republic IND base you'd *think* that DL could pick up some cherry picking flying on the 170 series down to Florida even if it's a short season, etc., or some weekend flying in high season, like Southwest does.

Perhaps when the 220s come in...may provide some flexibility for this. That being said, I haven't looked, are the 220s replacements or they going to be additions to the total aircraft available for the DL network?

Of course the Boston expansion is going to be taking up a bit of fleet slack.


Yeah it's come up before, but I saw that infographic and thought I would share it

Interesting thing is that YX doesn't do any of the current p2p flying, it is usually handled by mainline or 9E.

A220's are technically going to be used to upguage RJ routes, so larger RJs can replace 50 seaters. By the end of 2019 there are going to be a decent amount of extra E170s lying around even with the planned additions at BOS, considering some routes that were long and only served RJs are going completely mainline. And, I think this is when the p2p stuff could be expanded.

IND-RSW needs to be expanded as the flights sell out consistently, as do IND-MCO, for SB and the Holidays. For example, IND-RSW is sold out 12/26, 12/27, and is almost sold out for the 12/28 and 12/29 even though they recently upguaged to the B717. I even checked flights for March 23rd, and there was 8 seats left....4 months in advance..... I think larger aircraft for IND-RSW would be wise move for DL, or daily service for March.

I have no doubt a seasonal IND-TPA flight would work fine, in fact I'm not really sure why DL runs IND-MIA instead of IND-FLL/TPA/or an extra MCO flight....
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stlgph
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2018

Fri Dec 14, 2018 2:34 am

A 170, a CR9, heck, even a CR7 - it'd be nice to see some love for IND even if it is a few weekend seasonal additions.

I haven't really paid much that close attention to how the DL aircraft networks in and out of the CDG and AMS operations and how they funnel through the system. Seems to me as though IND to ATL could support a 767...would be kind of cool to have a 767 come in from ATL then turn to CDG and come in from CDG and then turn to ATL.

Just thinking out loud.
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indygs
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2018

Fri Dec 14, 2018 11:45 am

Just a quick data point, flew CDG-IND this past Tuesday. 71 total pax on board, 15 up front and the rest in Comfort +/Economy. Never seen a plane as empty, but certainly didn't mind it. Crew was on a six-day turn, ATL-CDG-IND-CDG-ATL and FA's were also happy with a light load, though they did say the way back to CDG was full (Thursday's flight).

About 10 pax were connecting based on what I saw at baggage claim--7 to SEA and 3 to MSP.

Glad to hear it seems to be doing well numbers-wise in summer, hope those numbers sustain moving forward!
 
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Midwestindy
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2018

Fri Dec 14, 2018 1:34 pm

indygs wrote:
Just a quick data point, flew CDG-IND this past Tuesday. 71 total pax on board, 15 up front and the rest in Comfort +/Economy. Never seen a plane as empty, but certainly didn't mind it. Crew was on a six-day turn, ATL-CDG-IND-CDG-ATL and FA's were also happy with a light load, though they did say the way back to CDG was full (Thursday's flight).

About 10 pax were connecting based on what I saw at baggage claim--7 to SEA and 3 to MSP.

Glad to hear it seems to be doing well numbers-wise in summer, hope those numbers sustain moving forward!


Interesting, thanks for the update, pretty terrible LF but that seems to be the exception not the rule. Hopefully, we don't see LFs like that in Jan/Feb, although I admit it will be hard to avoid at least a few flights going out fairly empty during slow season. Looking at seat maps it looks like things pick back up again in March once Spring Break starts.

Fairly surprised on the connecting passengers though, considering there were so few passengers on board, it is surprising there was a decent amount of connecting passengers.

stlgph wrote:
A 170, a CR9, heck, even a CR7 - it'd be nice to see some love for IND even if it is a few weekend seasonal additions.

I haven't really paid much that close attention to how the DL aircraft networks in and out of the CDG and AMS operations and how they funnel through the system. Seems to me as though IND to ATL could support a 767...would be kind of cool to have a 767 come in from ATL then turn to CDG and come in from CDG and then turn to ATL.

Just thinking out loud.


There isn't much need for DL to fly the 767 on IND-ATL, as it might take up some valuable aircraft time. IMO, IND would need to already have all 757/A321 flying on IND-ATL-IND first at least 12-13x times a day to justify a ATL-IND-CDG turn. However, there could be some one-off turns on ATL-IND-CDG moving forward.
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Indy
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2018

Fri Dec 14, 2018 1:44 pm

indygs wrote:
Just a quick data point, flew CDG-IND this past Tuesday. 71 total pax on board, 15 up front and the rest in Comfort +/Economy. Never seen a plane as empty, but certainly didn't mind it. Crew was on a six-day turn, ATL-CDG-IND-CDG-ATL and FA's were also happy with a light load, though they did say the way back to CDG was full (Thursday's flight).

About 10 pax were connecting based on what I saw at baggage claim--7 to SEA and 3 to MSP.

Glad to hear it seems to be doing well numbers-wise in summer, hope those numbers sustain moving forward!


Winter flights can be really bad. I had a flight between FRA and ORD. I cannot remember if it was outbound or inbound, but the load was terrible. This was many years ago but I remember sitting in the back third of the plane and there were rows and rows of empty seats. If you can have extremely light loads between those markets, you can (and will) have them anywhere.
Indy = Indianapolis and not Independence Air
 
stlgph
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2018

Fri Dec 14, 2018 4:31 pm

indygs wrote:
Just a quick data point, flew CDG-IND this past Tuesday. 71 total pax on board, 15 up front and the rest in Comfort +/Economy. Never seen a plane as empty, but certainly didn't mind it. Crew was on a six-day turn, ATL-CDG-IND-CDG-ATL and FA's were also happy with a light load, though they did say the way back to CDG was full (Thursday's flight).

About 10 pax were connecting based on what I saw at baggage claim--7 to SEA and 3 to MSP.

Glad to hear it seems to be doing well numbers-wise in summer, hope those numbers sustain moving forward!


I see it as nothing to worry about. Just the "time of the year." I usually try to aim some of my TATL (didn't make it this year) travel in December between Thanksgiving and the following 2 weeks for this reason. Loads are light and fares are pretty good. Last year I went over on Aer Lingus on a Tuesday night from JFK and there were less than 100 people on board. Year before was Air France and there were perhaps 40 of us in coach. Flight attendants were pretty happy on that one - and plenty of champagne to go around for all!
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Atlwarrior
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2018

Fri Dec 14, 2018 4:36 pm

Spirit Airlines this week announced new service launch at Indianapolis, initially offering 3 routes in the first-half of 2019. Planned service as follows.

Indianapolis – Las Vegas eff 14MAR19 1 daily A320
Indianapolis – Myrtle Beach eff 02MAY19 3 weekly A319 (seasonal service)
Indianapolis – Orlando eff 14MAR19 1 d
 
stlgph
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2018

Fri Dec 14, 2018 4:45 pm

Midwestindy wrote:
indygs wrote:
Just a quick data point, flew CDG-IND this past Tuesday. 71 total pax on board, 15 up front and the rest in Comfort +/Economy. Never seen a plane as empty, but certainly didn't mind it. Crew was on a six-day turn, ATL-CDG-IND-CDG-ATL and FA's were also happy with a light load, though they did say the way back to CDG was full (Thursday's flight).

About 10 pax were connecting based on what I saw at baggage claim--7 to SEA and 3 to MSP.

Glad to hear it seems to be doing well numbers-wise in summer, hope those numbers sustain moving forward!


Interesting, thanks for the update, pretty terrible LF but that seems to be the exception not the rule. Hopefully, we don't see LFs like that in Jan/Feb, although I admit it will be hard to avoid at least a few flights going out fairly empty during slow season. Looking at seat maps it looks like things pick back up again in March once Spring Break starts.

Fairly surprised on the connecting passengers though, considering there were so few passengers on board, it is surprising there was a decent amount of connecting passengers.

stlgph wrote:
A 170, a CR9, heck, even a CR7 - it'd be nice to see some love for IND even if it is a few weekend seasonal additions.

I haven't really paid much that close attention to how the DL aircraft networks in and out of the CDG and AMS operations and how they funnel through the system. Seems to me as though IND to ATL could support a 767...would be kind of cool to have a 767 come in from ATL then turn to CDG and come in from CDG and then turn to ATL.

Just thinking out loud.


There isn't much need for DL to fly the 767 on IND-ATL, as it might take up some valuable aircraft time. IMO, IND would need to already have all 757/A321 flying on IND-ATL-IND first at least 12-13x times a day to justify a ATL-IND-CDG turn. However, there could be some one-off turns on ATL-IND-CDG moving forward.


Not much time required at al. It's an hour and a half between the two cities and less flying time than ORD/DFW which AA does widebody turns on.

But it's a practice that DL seems to have gone away from. Years ago, right up to the merger, a 767 would run out of CVG back to CVG then down to ATL. In return, a 767 would come up from ATL to CVG then head out on the TATL turn. Managed to snag that one a few times on a mileage run and to my surprise, the damn thing was always full between CVG and ATL and it was evidently clear with all the flip flops and board shorts where many people had started their day. After the NW merger and things got "tighter" with Air France in Paris, I noticed the domestic widebody flying was greatly reduced on DL and the swaps started taking place at AMS or CDG.

The biggest thing going against such an operation is that IND is a "wee bit small" compared to some of the other stations, so if a 767 turn to/from ATL went tech...and it was full. That's a nice few hundred people who may be shit out of luck.
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cvgComair
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2018

Fri Dec 14, 2018 6:15 pm

stlgph wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:
indygs wrote:
Just a quick data point, flew CDG-IND this past Tuesday. 71 total pax on board, 15 up front and the rest in Comfort +/Economy. Never seen a plane as empty, but certainly didn't mind it. Crew was on a six-day turn, ATL-CDG-IND-CDG-ATL and FA's were also happy with a light load, though they did say the way back to CDG was full (Thursday's flight).

About 10 pax were connecting based on what I saw at baggage claim--7 to SEA and 3 to MSP.

Glad to hear it seems to be doing well numbers-wise in summer, hope those numbers sustain moving forward!


Interesting, thanks for the update, pretty terrible LF but that seems to be the exception not the rule. Hopefully, we don't see LFs like that in Jan/Feb, although I admit it will be hard to avoid at least a few flights going out fairly empty during slow season. Looking at seat maps it looks like things pick back up again in March once Spring Break starts.

Fairly surprised on the connecting passengers though, considering there were so few passengers on board, it is surprising there was a decent amount of connecting passengers.

stlgph wrote:
A 170, a CR9, heck, even a CR7 - it'd be nice to see some love for IND even if it is a few weekend seasonal additions.

I haven't really paid much that close attention to how the DL aircraft networks in and out of the CDG and AMS operations and how they funnel through the system. Seems to me as though IND to ATL could support a 767...would be kind of cool to have a 767 come in from ATL then turn to CDG and come in from CDG and then turn to ATL.

Just thinking out loud.


There isn't much need for DL to fly the 767 on IND-ATL, as it might take up some valuable aircraft time. IMO, IND would need to already have all 757/A321 flying on IND-ATL-IND first at least 12-13x times a day to justify a ATL-IND-CDG turn. However, there could be some one-off turns on ATL-IND-CDG moving forward.


Not much time required at al. It's an hour and a half between the two cities and less flying time than ORD/DFW which AA does widebody turns on.

But it's a practice that DL seems to have gone away from. Years ago, right up to the merger, a 767 would run out of CVG back to CVG then down to ATL. In return, a 767 would come up from ATL to CVG then head out on the TATL turn. Managed to snag that one a few times on a mileage run and to my surprise, the damn thing was always full between CVG and ATL and it was evidently clear with all the flip flops and board shorts where many people had started their day. After the NW merger and things got "tighter" with Air France in Paris, I noticed the domestic widebody flying was greatly reduced on DL and the swaps started taking place at AMS or CDG.

The biggest thing going against such an operation is that IND is a "wee bit small" compared to some of the other stations, so if a 767 turn to/from ATL went tech...and it was full. That's a nice few hundred people who may be shit out of luck.

Though, at the time, CVG had a 767 pilot base and they were running domestic legs to a bunch of cities for the CVG based crews. Once the base shrunk post merger, all those domestic tags went away and they just operated the TATL flights. Definitely wouldn't make sense now since the 767s are more spread out and DL has more international capacity. No need for the additional domestic legs besides the transcons they already do.
 
stlgph
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2018

Fri Dec 14, 2018 6:22 pm

Apples oranges. DL could fully send out 767s and others on domestic turns if they wanted to and who wouldn't welcome the opportunity?
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Midwestindy
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2018

Sat Dec 15, 2018 3:10 pm

Very odd, but IND-BOS is going 4xCR9 starting in June. I think this is the first time in quite some time I have seen the CR9 on this route. And considering the YX maintenance and crew base in IND, I'm quite surprised that the E170/5 won't be on this route. In fact it appears there are only 2 DL YX birds RON in IND next summer. Potentially could mean more flying to be announced, or could just mean they are shifting everything to BOS.

Also, it looks like the A321 is going to become more common, as IND-DTW gets the A321 all summer 1x daily
IND-RSW goes to the E175 for Spring Break
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kindeham
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2018

Sat Dec 15, 2018 3:46 pm

Indy wrote:
indygs wrote:
Just a quick data point, flew CDG-IND this past Tuesday. 71 total pax on board, 15 up front and the rest in Comfort +/Economy. Never seen a plane as empty, but certainly didn't mind it. Crew was on a six-day turn, ATL-CDG-IND-CDG-ATL and FA's were also happy with a light load, though they did say the way back to CDG was full (Thursday's flight).

About 10 pax were connecting based on what I saw at baggage claim--7 to SEA and 3 to MSP.

Glad to hear it seems to be doing well numbers-wise in summer, hope those numbers sustain moving forward!


Winter flights can be really bad. I had a flight between FRA and ORD. I cannot remember if it was outbound or inbound, but the load was terrible. This was many years ago but I remember sitting in the back third of the plane and there were rows and rows of empty seats. If you can have extremely light loads between those markets, you can (and will) have them anywhere.


I took a look and things are pretty much full now till a week after New Year, then it takes a nose dive till March. April is pretty light, but June is already seeing heavy bookings. I wouldnt be too scared of the light days considering they are light everywhere. To put in perspective the last couple of weeks American has been flying 777's JFK-LHR so empty that each passenger could have their own row - and I mean the entire row (with some left over). Also can't forget that there is cargo that is collecting enough of a premium that a few months ago DL put an extra section on to make up for a cancelled flight and flew it with just the cargo and no passengers.
 
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2018

Sat Dec 15, 2018 4:57 pm

kindeham wrote:
Indy wrote:
indygs wrote:
Just a quick data point, flew CDG-IND this past Tuesday. 71 total pax on board, 15 up front and the rest in Comfort +/Economy. Never seen a plane as empty, but certainly didn't mind it. Crew was on a six-day turn, ATL-CDG-IND-CDG-ATL and FA's were also happy with a light load, though they did say the way back to CDG was full (Thursday's flight).

About 10 pax were connecting based on what I saw at baggage claim--7 to SEA and 3 to MSP.

Glad to hear it seems to be doing well numbers-wise in summer, hope those numbers sustain moving forward!


Winter flights can be really bad. I had a flight between FRA and ORD. I cannot remember if it was outbound or inbound, but the load was terrible. This was many years ago but I remember sitting in the back third of the plane and there were rows and rows of empty seats. If you can have extremely light loads between those markets, you can (and will) have them anywhere.


I took a look and things are pretty much full now till a week after New Year, then it takes a nose dive till March. April is pretty light, but June is already seeing heavy bookings. I wouldnt be too scared of the light days considering they are light everywhere. To put in perspective the last couple of weeks American has been flying 777's JFK-LHR so empty that each passenger could have their own row - and I mean the entire row (with some left over). Also can't forget that there is cargo that is collecting enough of a premium that a few months ago DL put an extra section on to make up for a cancelled flight and flew it with just the cargo and no passengers.


Yep today looks packed, and thanks for pointing out June. I'm noticing a lot of June days with Economy very full, which means advanced sales are doing better than last year. Even if the IND-CDG flight gets better LFs (93-95%) next summer, I still doubt we will see any changes from DL, which is a bit disappointing.
Last edited by Midwestindy on Sat Dec 15, 2018 5:02 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2018

Sat Dec 15, 2018 4:58 pm

https://airwaysmag.com/airlines/spirit- ... f0AisyLjGs

New article about Spirit coming into Indy. Thought you guys would like to read it.
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2018

Sat Dec 15, 2018 5:17 pm

EDV flying IND-BOS isn't unprecedented. I flew it with them on the Saturday before Christmas last year. From the Q4 2017 data, it looks like they flew a total of 2119 passengers with a 73% LF, so that would come to 38 flights with the CR9.

Midwestindy wrote:
Very odd, but IND-BOS is going 4xCR9 starting in June. I think this is the first time in quite some time I have seen the CR9 on this route. And considering the YX maintenance and crew base in IND, I'm quite surprised that the E170/5 won't be on this route. In fact it appears there are only 2 DL YX birds RON in IND next summer. Potentially could mean more flying to be announced, or could just mean they are shifting everything to BOS.

Also, it looks like the A321 is going to become more common, as IND-DTW gets the A321 all summer 1x daily
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2018

Sat Dec 15, 2018 5:25 pm

zackary747 wrote:
https://airwaysmag.com/airlines/spirit-boosts-indianapolis-orlando-las-vegas-myrtle-beach/?fbclid=IwAR2qnHnYeAqt06I19oPsMETTBC17noxWOzMVi_-27Bc5y_1UAf0AisyLjGs

New article about Spirit coming into Indy. Thought you guys would like to read it.


A few notes here:

1. "Matt Klein, Spirit’s VP, and CCO stated its reasoning for expanding out of the Indy area due to its “growing metropolitan area, local food, and craft beer” as well as “family-friendly attractions” catering to all areas of the industry." Yeah I don't really consider Indy falling anywhere into any of those designations, other than the really nice Children's Museum.

2. "These new routes will also offer enabled connectivity to other destinations across America as well as the Caribbean and the Latin American markets, something that Spirit has been focusing on a lot recently." That may be a slight exaggeration, as I checked on NK's website and only 16 destinations are available from IND (including MYR, MCO, and LAS).

3. "In all, it will be interesting to see where else Spirit expands into. It seems clear that for Summer 2019, some more announcements may be made before the Christmas break."
Not sure if that was a hint, but there is a lot of potential for NK in IND, and they have made it clear that they want to expand outside of the 3 initial destinations. I think MSP, BOS, FLL, RSW, TPA, DFW, and JAX are all destinations they should give a look at.
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2018

Sat Dec 15, 2018 5:44 pm

Would love to know more about Spirit's plans for gate access and if they are going to have their own local hired crews or be entirely outsourced. Knowing Spirit, probably entirely outsourced. Any one out there with or at the airport peeped up yet?
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2018

Sat Dec 15, 2018 5:45 pm

I'm guessing it was just for the Holidays, it is common for DL to switch around the regionals during the Holidays. The route has been almost all YX since the beginning of 2017 or earlier

Anyway while it isn't unprecedented, I think it is certainly unusual. Given IND is YX's largest base, you would think they would have scheduled more flying through IND as opposed to EDV. However, as of right now it looks like YX will have 7 of the RJ flights while EDV will have 10. Maybe the plan is to transition more of the IND YX flying to AA/UA, or they plan on using those DL YX RJs elsewhere

GSOtoIND wrote:
EDV flying IND-BOS isn't unprecedented. I flew it with them on the Saturday before Christmas last year. From the Q4 2017 data, it looks like they flew a total of 2119 passengers with a 73% LF, so that would come to 38 flights with the CR9.

Midwestindy wrote:
Very odd, but IND-BOS is going 4xCR9 starting in June. I think this is the first time in quite some time I have seen the CR9 on this route. And considering the YX maintenance and crew base in IND, I'm quite surprised that the E170/5 won't be on this route. In fact it appears there are only 2 DL YX birds RON in IND next summer. Potentially could mean more flying to be announced, or could just mean they are shifting everything to BOS.

Also, it looks like the A321 is going to become more common, as IND-DTW gets the A321 all summer 1x daily
IND-RSW goes to the E175 for Spring Break
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2018

Sun Dec 16, 2018 8:49 pm

AA might be slowly cutting back at IND
IND-PHL is still down to 5x daily during April (5xE175)
IND-LGA lost a frequency a few weeks ago, probably getting beat up by DL on this route (1xE175, 1xE140 from 2xE140, 1xE175)
IND-LAX goes back down to 1x daily in April
IND-MIA goes from (1xE145/2x E175 to 2xE145/1xE175)

Some of this may be offset by 3x mainline to ORD, and an increase in capacity to DFW. However, still something to look at, especially with IND-JFK likely to be cut soon.
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2018

Sun Dec 16, 2018 11:53 pm

Midwestindy wrote:
Yep today looks packed, and thanks for pointing out June. I'm noticing a lot of June days with Economy very full, which means advanced sales are doing better than last year. Even if the IND-CDG flight gets better LFs (93-95%) next summer, I still doubt we will see any changes from DL, which is a bit disappointing.


I can't remember exactly when IND-CDG was announced last year, but I remember during the winter that most summer days had only a couple seats booked. Seeing some flight already over 50% filled with half a year left is very encouraging. As you said though, the negative to this is that DL isn't doing much about the summer booking levels - particularly on Thursdays. There is absolutely no doubt Indy could use another EU flight on Thursdays - with the most likely candidate being AMS... I wonder if it's equipment availability or something similar that is stopping it from happening?
 
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2018

Mon Dec 17, 2018 1:57 am

As I recall the announcement came in September 2017 and service began in May?

Not surprised by June bookings being good already. Two words: tour groups

When I was in high school I did two Euro trips. Each one was in June and we were planning, meeting the first week of school with tickets booked by the end of September, we'd head out in June for a week or 10 days and be back in time for summer sports leagues to start.

As a Midwesterner, I know how much we love our tour groups.

And for those not going on tour groups, "happy graduation, little Timmy and Megan...."

My parents didn't love me enough for that apparently.
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2018

Mon Dec 17, 2018 3:45 am

stlgph wrote:
As I recall the announcement came in September 2017 and service began in May?

Not surprised by June bookings being good already. Two words: tour groups

When I was in high school I did two Euro trips. Each one was in June and we were planning, meeting the first week of school with tickets booked by the end of September, we'd head out in June for a week or 10 days and be back in time for summer sports leagues to start.

As a Midwesterner, I know how much we love our tour groups.

And for those not going on tour groups, "happy graduation, little Timmy and Megan...."

My parents didn't love me enough for that apparently.

kindeham wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:
Yep today looks packed, and thanks for pointing out June. I'm noticing a lot of June days with Economy very full, which means advanced sales are doing better than last year. Even if the IND-CDG flight gets better LFs (93-95%) next summer, I still doubt we will see any changes from DL, which is a bit disappointing.


I can't remember exactly when IND-CDG was announced last year, but I remember during the winter that most summer days had only a couple seats booked. Seeing some flight already over 50% filled with half a year left is very encouraging. As you said though, the negative to this is that DL isn't doing much about the summer booking levels - particularly on Thursdays. There is absolutely no doubt Indy could use another EU flight on Thursdays - with the most likely candidate being AMS... I wonder if it's equipment availability or something similar that is stopping it from happening?


I can imagine Purdue and IU alone generate a decent amount of these advanced ticket sales for study abroad. With each program having a few thousand students who study abroad, I'm sure they generate a marginal amount of the advanced purchase int'l travel for Spring Break and parts of Summer on their own.

Could DL add another EU flight during summer (I'm talking 2x-3x weekly), probably yes, but as we have seen with RDU and CVG they haven't shown much interest in adding any other TATL flights from those destinations. I have a feeling DL wants to keep the IND-CDG as full as possible, which will allow them to continue to raise ticket prices. And, the passengers they don't capture through IND-CDG, they believe they can catch through their improved IND-DTW/JFK flights.

However, the fact that IND-CDG had higher pax numbers than SLC-CDG/AMS, MCO-AMS, CVG-CDG, RDU-CDG, PIT-CDG, EWR-CDG, and the 767 DTW-CDG flight, plus, IND-CDG having way more cargo onboard than all of those routes except for CVG-CDG, should mean the flight does pretty well for itself.

Aircraft availability will be a problem as well moving forward, keep in mind other cities are vying for DL TATL service (AUS/CMH-AMS), so that may limit aircraft availability moving forward.

The incentive money could be a game changer though, it is probably too late for anything extra for S19, but it will be something to watch for in S20.
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2018

Mon Dec 17, 2018 3:58 am

There's lots of nice connections on DL through BOS to the DL TATL services and their partner carriers. Even with BOS, JFK, DTW and ATL providing options, I think there's good potential within 2-3 years to see CDG 7 days a week from IND, which would be terrific.
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2018

Mon Dec 17, 2018 4:12 pm

stlgph wrote:
Would love to know more about Spirit's plans for gate access and if they are going to have their own local hired crews or be entirely outsourced. Knowing Spirit, probably entirely outsourced. Any one out there with or at the airport peeped up yet?


FLL is NK's only in-house station. My understanding is that they are currently working through the RFP process.
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2018

Mon Dec 17, 2018 4:17 pm

Think CMH will get Delta service on the 767 next year?
 
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2018

Mon Dec 17, 2018 4:33 pm

stlgph wrote:
There's lots of nice connections on DL through BOS to the DL TATL services and their partner carriers. Even with BOS, JFK, DTW and ATL providing options, I think there's good potential within 2-3 years to see CDG 7 days a week from IND, which would be terrific.


Yep, and they are upguaging the afternoon IND-DTW flight to mainline for the summer. So a plethora of options to get to the Top 6 European destinations from IND.

When you say 7 days a week, do you mean outside of summer?

fedex1 wrote:
Think CMH will get Delta service on the 767 next year?


Ship has probably sailed for it being started next year, but it could be announced next year
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2018

Mon Dec 17, 2018 4:38 pm

Yes, outside of summer.
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2018

Mon Dec 17, 2018 5:41 pm

stlgph wrote:
Yes, outside of summer.


I doubt it, SLC-AMS/CDG isn't even daily during winter. I think the better shot is having an extra couple frequencies to AMS/CDG thrown in during the summer, or another carrier like DE, DY, or EI offering service (I think the latter is more likely).
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2018

Mon Dec 17, 2018 7:28 pm

Midwestindy wrote:
1. "Matt Klein, Spirit’s VP, and CCO stated its reasoning for expanding out of the Indy area due to its “growing metropolitan area, local food, and craft beer” as well as “family-friendly attractions” catering to all areas of the industry." Yeah I don't really consider Indy falling anywhere into any of those designations, other than the really nice Children's Museum.


Just an FYI, the Indianapolis Zoo was ranked one of the top ten in America by Conde Nast and Newfields has many activities for kids of all ages. While those of us who live here may not view our city as family-friendly, between the Children's Museum (the world's largest) and these, there's more than meets the eye. We're not talking about vacation package sales to Indy or anything, but also not void of options.
 
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2018

Tue Dec 18, 2018 1:21 am

kindeham wrote:
Indy wrote:
I took a look and things are pretty much full now till a week after New Year, then it takes a nose dive till March. April is pretty light, but June is already seeing heavy bookings. I wouldnt be too scared of the light days considering they are light everywhere. To put in perspective the last couple of weeks American has been flying 777's JFK-LHR so empty that each passenger could have their own row - and I mean the entire row (with some left over). Also can't forget that there is cargo that is collecting enough of a premium that a few months ago DL put an extra section on to make up for a cancelled flight and flew it with just the cargo and no passengers.


Would explain why you can now redeem 32k SkyMiles for a round-trip IND-CDG trip through end of March!
 
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2018

Wed Dec 19, 2018 6:43 pm

https://www.indianapolisairport.com/flights

Looks like the airport finally updated their page to account for the the loss of PIT, so back down to 50 nonstop destinations.

Hopefully IND can get some service to some of their target markets(BDL, PBI, SJU, SAT, e.t.c), to make up for the loss
https://d1j6zi7czwjuok.cloudfront.net/i ... EBSITE.pdf
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2018

Wed Dec 19, 2018 7:04 pm

PBI would be ripe for a low hanging fruit grab for Spirit and Southwest. Perhaps even Frontier.

Would not be surprised to see Allegiant come in with a token presence in the next 2-3 years. 2 weekly PIT/CVG/IND to see how it goes.
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2018

Wed Dec 19, 2018 7:12 pm

Midwestindy wrote:
https://www.indianapolisairport.com/flights

Looks like the airport finally updated their page to account for the the loss of PIT, so back down to 50 nonstop destinations.

Hopefully IND can get some service to some of their target markets(BDL, PBI, SJU, SAT, e.t.c), to make up for the loss
https://d1j6zi7czwjuok.cloudfront.net/i ... EBSITE.pdf


Still shows Pittsburgh on the website on my end. I've been curious on when they are going to update that list.

EDIT: Looks like they edited the 51 to 50 but the OneJet and Pittsburgh is still listed on the cities list and airlines list. That's kind of weird. You would think they would remove it/update it all at one time.
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2018

Wed Dec 19, 2018 7:43 pm

stlgph wrote:
PBI would be ripe for a low hanging fruit grab for Spirit and Southwest. Perhaps even Frontier.

Would not be surprised to see Allegiant come in with a token presence in the next 2-3 years. 2 weekly PIT/CVG/IND to see how it goes.


Besides G4 opening up PBI, surprisingly, I think F9 is the best shot for PBI. F9 serves CMH, PIT, RDU, CLE, and STL from there so you would think IND would fall somewhere in line from there.

WN isn't growing in IND, so I don't expect them to add anything anytime soon. Plus, NK has a relatively small presence at PBI so there are many stations they would add before IND.

zackary747 wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:
https://www.indianapolisairport.com/flights

Looks like the airport finally updated their page to account for the the loss of PIT, so back down to 50 nonstop destinations.

Hopefully IND can get some service to some of their target markets(BDL, PBI, SJU, SAT, e.t.c), to make up for the loss
https://d1j6zi7czwjuok.cloudfront.net/i ... EBSITE.pdf


Still shows Pittsburgh on the website on my end. I've been curious on when they are going to update that list.

EDIT: Looks like they edited the 51 to 50 but the OneJet and Pittsburgh is still listed on the cities list and airlines list. That's kind of weird. You would think they would remove it/update it all at one time.


It looks like they don't update that part of the page very often, SLC is still listed as seasonal, and I have no idea why RSW is listed as seasonal
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2018

Wed Dec 19, 2018 7:48 pm

IND-PBI was a former AirTran route. We know where some of their former managers are currently employed. I'd just be more optimistic that Spirit would come and stick around on the route for a while unlike Frontier which might come in for a drive by.

Southwest...possibility is there but sure, chances are slim.

at any rate, the Indiana market generally tends to head towards the Gulf more than the Atlantic. i guess there's always Biloxi! yee haw.
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2018

Wed Dec 19, 2018 9:24 pm

stlgph wrote:
IND-PBI was a former AirTran route. We know where some of their former managers are currently employed. I'd just be more optimistic that Spirit would come and stick around on the route for a while unlike Frontier which might come in for a drive by.


If we are talking about old AirTran routes than I think FLL, RSW, TPA, LAX, and maybe even ATL/BWI(as crazy as it might sound) are right down NK's alley

stlgph wrote:
at any rate, the Indiana market generally tends to head towards the Gulf more than the Atlantic. i guess there's always Biloxi! yee haw.


:shock:
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2018

Thu Dec 20, 2018 3:22 pm

Would not be surprised to see Spirit come in on some of those routes, if not all of them. At. All. We could probably place money on which one comes first - Tampa, Ft Myers or Ft Lauderdale

I'd love to see them get creative and do something different than that - Boston, Houston, Newark, Dallas/Ft Worth come to mind. The jury is out here on which one would come first - but I may venture a guess and say EWR.

But I'd love to see them get even more creative and offer service to cities not on the map. West Palm Beach, Hartford and Pittsburgh/Latrobe come to mind. I'd place money on PBI being the most likely on this short list.
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2018

Thu Dec 20, 2018 4:06 pm

stlgph wrote:
Would not be surprised to see Spirit come in on some of those routes, if not all of them. At. All. We could probably place money on which one comes first - Tampa, Ft Myers or Ft Lauderdale

I'd love to see them get creative and do something different than that - Boston, Houston, Newark, Dallas/Ft Worth come to mind. The jury is out here on which one would come first - but I may venture a guess and say EWR.

But I'd love to see them get even more creative and offer service to cities not on the map. West Palm Beach, Hartford and Pittsburgh/Latrobe come to mind. I'd place money on PBI being the most likely on this short list.


Funny you should mention IND-FLL, just looked on NK's website, and IND-FLL is listed as an option however all the flights are blank......So it might be that FLL is the first route they bite on

Probably nothing, but I still found it odd, although I sometimes see that on F9's website as well

IND-EWR would be a great add for IND, considering the loss of EWR
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2018

Thu Dec 20, 2018 4:12 pm

I wouldn't even consider IND-PBI on NK for 2 reasons, BWI doesn't even have PBI and IND doesn't even have FLL yet. Only the stronger NK stations with the acception of ACY and BOS have PBI service, similarly to JAX. If anything, IND would be due up for FLL, TPA, RSW, DFW, IAH, and LAX on NK.
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