CMHMarc787
Posts: 88
Joined: Sat Nov 23, 2013 9:09 pm

Re: The rest of Ohio - 2018

Mon Jun 04, 2018 12:23 pm

For CMH, I'm gonna throw a wildcard out there:

AS for SEA, SFO, AND SAN. They could use C47-48.

Just call it a hunch.
 
topguncnod
Posts: 53
Joined: Tue May 30, 2017 1:46 am

Re: The rest of Ohio - 2018

Mon Jun 04, 2018 1:32 pm

cvgComair wrote:
Also, the CVG SkyClub will be getting renovations done according to Twitter support. I will be interested to see what they actually plan on overhauling in the lounge. It is pretty nice already if you ask me, but it definitely still has the Crown Room feel.



I was in the CVG SkyClub this morning and they confirmed that at the very least the bar will be renovated. They were not sure if anything else will be updated at this time.
 
jplatts
Posts: 2517
Joined: Sat Mar 18, 2017 6:42 pm

Re: The rest of Ohio - 2018

Mon Jun 04, 2018 2:03 pm

CMHMarc787 wrote:
For CMH, I'm gonna throw a wildcard out there:

AS for SEA, SFO, AND SAN. They could use C47-48.

Just call it a hunch.


If AS adds CMH-SAN nonstop service, WN would likely add CMH-SAN nonstop service in response to AS adding CMH-SAN nonstop service. WN has recently expanded at SAN, OAK, and SJC in response to AS expansion at SAN, SFO, and SJC.
 
cvgComair
Posts: 2040
Joined: Thu Jul 07, 2016 3:48 pm

Re: The rest of Ohio - 2018

Mon Jun 04, 2018 4:59 pm

cvgcmisea wrote:
@cvgcomair I am consistently impressed by your ability to pull data and find all of this information. I work for Amazon (consumer/retail) and I can’t even find the information that you do. I grew up flying out of CVG, but SEA is home now. What do you see as the eventuality for Amazon in CVG plus the spillover effects? I’ve been trying to figure it out but haven’t been able to put it together, especially with the unknown of HQ2 (which I’m sure will be in the Eastern Time Zone, but beyond that no clue...I’ll find out from the New York Times. like everyone else)

The effect at CVG is going to be massive. This fall will mark 2 years of planning on the Amazon project and CVG's 2050 master plan, which is no coincidence. There needs to be construction of office space, parking, truck distribution areas, package sorting buildings, airplane ramp space, maintenance hangars, support taxiways, and runway widening/expansions. This is going to cost in the billions of dollars and is going to be very cool to see built out. According to the airport, parts of the master plan will be coming "very soon". Construction on the Amazon facility is scheduled to begin in Q1/Q2 2019, Phase 1 in Q1/Q2 2020, and a full build-out by 2025. Work on widening runway 09/27 and possibly 18L/36R or 18C/36C will begin in 2019.

Amazon originally quoted 2700 employees and 100 aircraft, however, I believe these numbers are significant underestimates. This is slightly larger than DHL's facility, and would only require about 350 acres, however, they have bought 1129 acres to date. I expect that the hub will be around the size of UPS' SDF hub, however, Amazon has the capacity at CVG to create a hub that would supplant FedEx's MEM hub. Interestingly, it appears Amazon wants more of a 24/7 operation at CVG compared to the mega night banks common at airport hubs. What will be kind of exciting is that CVG should reach Class B airspace status again, passengers will be there in a year or two, while I could see aircraft movements coming close to the 300,000 threshold within the next decade.

While Cincinnati will not be getting HQ2, the amount of jobs being created from the project are just as impactful. Amazon and DHL are taking over the Comair headquarters building to run their operations (KCAB will be moving their offices to Concourse A and the CONRAC), which adds many higher paying jobs, in addition to the pilots for both airlines. Amazon's original number was 2700 employees, but Hebron is making plans in preparation for 15,000 employees.

In terms of spill-over effects, I can only begin to speculate. Dozens of distribution companies have/are moving operations to Northern Kentucky and countless distribution centers are being built around CVG. I think we are going to see some kind of formal acquisition between DHL and Amazon, wether that entails Amazon buying one ABX/Atlas/ATI to gain its own operating certificate or some kind of cargo codeshare with DHL. Passenger air service will not change much, but I imagine we will see some increase in flights to Seattle and the HQ2 city.
 
ADrum23
Posts: 1789
Joined: Fri Jul 14, 2017 11:54 pm

Re: The rest of Ohio - 2018

Tue Jun 05, 2018 1:31 am

^^^^^^^^^^

CVG's transformation has been stunning to say the least. And the exciting thing is, it appears it is only the beginning. Amazon building a massive hub and DHL expanding will create not only thousands of jobs, but ridiculously low landing fees that can spur new passenger service and new revenue that can help redevelop the existing infrastructure, including:

1. A new passenger terminal that is more O&D friendly, but allows flexibility for expansion.

2. Redevelopment/replacement of the existing garages and parking expansion

3. Replacement of the existing DoubleTree hotel

4. Reconstruction of the tarmac

5. A potential 5th runway should the cargo hub need it.

I feel after the CONRAC is finished, those should be among the top priorities for the passenger side of CVG.

As far as passenger service, if Amazon is serious about this cargo hub, then I think it is inevitable AS jumps on CVG-SEA at some point, as DL is the only carrier on that route at the moment. There should be enough traffic that both can thrive.
 
cvgComair
Posts: 2040
Joined: Thu Jul 07, 2016 3:48 pm

Re: The rest of Ohio - 2018

Tue Jun 05, 2018 6:39 pm

Looks like F9 is axing CVG-PHL/PHX, unclear is this is a permanent or seasonal cut. I will update if/when I hear back from CVG or Frontier.

There is a reason G4 is going to be larger than F9 come this summer. The constant cutting/adding is getting old. This is at least the 2nd or 3rd time these routes have been "suspended". It is time for WN/DL to come in a take over :) .
 
flyingfromcvg
Posts: 47
Joined: Mon Jun 22, 2015 2:44 am

Re: The rest of Ohio - 2018

Tue Jun 05, 2018 6:49 pm

ADrum23 wrote:
As far as passenger service, if Amazon is serious about this cargo hub, then I think it is inevitable AS jumps on CVG-SEA at some point, as DL is the only carrier on that route at the moment. There should be enough traffic that both can thrive.


My guess is we won’t see a one-off route from AS which is the main reason I don’t think we’ll see neither them nor B6 until they free up some aircraft. I don’t think AS is going to want to start CVG with anything less than SEA and some combination of SFO, PDX and SAN. They don’t have the available equipment to devote to 2-4 routes as I don’t think an E75 is good for any of them and the 737s are likely tied up in their plans to dump the Airbus fleet.

B6 is in a similar situation but more bleak. Entering only BOS would tap into their strength there but the route would become a bloodbath with DL dumping price while adding frequency and mainline equipment. DL may be ceding low end routes to F9 and G4 but there’s no way they’re letting BOS get into play. It’s a focus city/mini-hub for them and key to keeping P&G happy. Plus with fares that remind of the hub days the route is profitable. Additionally where else B6 add even if it could allocate some equipment? Enter the fray into NYC? MCO and FLL with those fares? With fuel costs rising and tight equipment, B6 is not coming to CVG anytime soon.

Both AS and B6 are essentially point to point carriers to Midwest markets. With the possible exception of SFO, none of their respective hubs are attractive to connecting CVG flyers so you’re left competing for O&D demand. F9 has DEN and WN can offer their MDW and BWI hubs in way that BOS, JFK, FLL, SEA, and PDX don’t make sense.

If Amazon needs more people travelling between CVG and SEA, I think we’ll see DL upguage to 739s or add another frequency before AS only adds CVG-SEA. It’s a shame as I’d love to see AS start service, especially to SAN. Just don’t think we’ll see it unless AS decides to keep the Airbus fleet which doesn’t appear to happening.
 
cvgComair
Posts: 2040
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Re: The rest of Ohio - 2018

Tue Jun 05, 2018 7:02 pm

ADrum23 wrote:
2. Redevelopment/replacement of the existing garages and parking expansion
4. Reconstruction of the tarmac
As far as passenger service, if Amazon is serious about this cargo hub, then I think it is inevitable AS jumps on CVG-SEA at some point, as DL is the only carrier on that route at the moment. There should be enough traffic that both can thrive.

Luckily #2 and #4 are already underway. The tarmac is getting replaced and the new long term parking lot is being started pretty soon. I believe there will be some expansions of the parking garage once the CONRAC goes in, but short term rarely gets full.

As for AS, I have a feeling it is just going to be DL for the foreseeable future. I would be shocked if DL didn't jump on SAN/PDX next summer. Having the separate PDX flight would probably negate the need for a second SEA flight since I imagine CVG-SEA-PDX is a pretty popular itinerary for those going to PDX.
flyingfromcvg wrote:
B6 is in a similar situation but more bleak. Entering only BOS would tap into their strength there but the route would become a bloodbath with DL dumping price while adding frequency and mainline equipment. DL may be ceding low end routes to F9 and G4 but there’s no way they’re letting BOS get into play. It’s a focus city/mini-hub for them and key to keeping P&G happy. Plus with fares that remind of the hub days the route is profitable. Additionally where else B6 add even if it could allocate some equipment? Enter the fray into NYC? MCO and FLL with those fares? With fuel costs rising and tight equipment, B6 is not coming to CVG anytime soon.

I totally agree with B6. DL has been flying empty planes to BOS and charging super high fares, however the prices seem to have come down a little. I recently used CMH-BOS instead of CVG because the price was over double at CVG. It has been years since I have had to do that! I actually think B6 could make a go at JFK as there are only 2 daily flights on CVG-JFK, however, I still think it's unlikely. WN said that they were interested in serving CVG-BOS, but it is not going to be pretty.
 
tphuang
Posts: 2898
Joined: Tue Mar 14, 2017 2:04 pm

Re: The rest of Ohio - 2018

Tue Jun 05, 2018 8:11 pm

B6 will enter cvg when the time is right. It’s just very slow at introducing new stations. It’s not nk or f9. Delta only makes good money on about 5 routes out of Boston. Cmh and cvg are both on that list. Hard to see b6 not announcing to enter one of these two markets in the next year or so to make things really tough for delta. Remember, delta has already entered several routes out of Boston that are Dominated by b6 and are getting horrible Yield on them. B6 will enter more than just msp for retaliation.
 
Jshank83
Posts: 2678
Joined: Tue Nov 01, 2016 2:23 pm

Re: The rest of Ohio - 2018

Tue Jun 05, 2018 8:21 pm

tphuang wrote:
B6 will enter cvg when the time is right. It’s just very slow at introducing new stations. It’s not nk or f9. Delta only makes good money on about 5 routes out of Boston. Cmh and cvg are both on that list. Hard to see b6 not announcing to enter one of these two markets in the next year or so to make things really tough for delta. Remember, delta has already entered several routes out of Boston that are Dominated by b6 and are getting horrible Yield on them. B6 will enter more than just msp for retaliation.


So you are saying routes B6 and DL compete on have horrible yields (at least for DL) and because of that B6 would want to start another route that they both would be on?
 
tphuang
Posts: 2898
Joined: Tue Mar 14, 2017 2:04 pm

Re: The rest of Ohio - 2018

Tue Jun 05, 2018 8:39 pm

Jshank83 wrote:
tphuang wrote:
B6 will enter cvg when the time is right. It’s just very slow at introducing new stations. It’s not nk or f9. Delta only makes good money on about 5 routes out of Boston. Cmh and cvg are both on that list. Hard to see b6 not announcing to enter one of these two markets in the next year or so to make things really tough for delta. Remember, delta has already entered several routes out of Boston that are Dominated by b6 and are getting horrible Yield on them. B6 will enter more than just msp for retaliation.


So you are saying routes B6 and DL compete on have horrible yields (at least for DL) and because of that B6 would want to start another route that they both would be on?


More as retaliation for DL's moves in BOS which hurt B6 performance on routes like BOS-PIT/BUF/MCO. The fares on BOS-LGA/ATL/MSP have crashed since B6 entered. The next one they are entering is BOS-MEX which makes good money for the DL/AM JV. B6 has much lower cost than DL, so it can afford to have yields that are 25 to 30% lower. And long term, they strive to be the top dog in BOS, so I don't see how they can let Delta continue to milk money on these routes.
 
ADrum23
Posts: 1789
Joined: Fri Jul 14, 2017 11:54 pm

Re: The rest of Ohio - 2018

Tue Jun 05, 2018 9:34 pm

cvgComair wrote:
ADrum23 wrote:
2. Redevelopment/replacement of the existing garages and parking expansion
4. Reconstruction of the tarmac
As far as passenger service, if Amazon is serious about this cargo hub, then I think it is inevitable AS jumps on CVG-SEA at some point, as DL is the only carrier on that route at the moment. There should be enough traffic that both can thrive.

Luckily #2 and #4 are already underway. The tarmac is getting replaced and the new long term parking lot is being started pretty soon. I believe there will be some expansions of the parking garage once the CONRAC goes in, but short term rarely gets full.

As for AS, I have a feeling it is just going to be DL for the foreseeable future. I would be shocked if DL didn't jump on SAN/PDX next summer. Having the separate PDX flight would probably negate the need for a second SEA flight since I imagine CVG-SEA-PDX is a pretty popular itinerary for those going to PDX.


Where are the plans for the parking expansion out of curiosity? I don't think they plan to replace the garages until the terminal situation is figured out.

Other nearby airports have made SEA work on both AS and DL, including IND, BNA, RDU, etc, so I don't see why AS can't make it work from CVG.
 
jplatts
Posts: 2517
Joined: Sat Mar 18, 2017 6:42 pm

Re: The rest of Ohio - 2018

Tue Jun 05, 2018 11:13 pm

ADrum23 wrote:
Other nearby airports have made SEA work on both AS and DL, including IND, BNA, RDU, etc, so I don't see why AS can't make it work from CVG.


CVG and LGA are currently the only DL hub or focus city airports that do not have nonstop service from SEA on AS. In addition, ATL, LAX, SLC, MSP, DTW, JFK, BOS, and RDU are all also already served nonstop from SEA on both AS and DL. I agree that AS can make CVG-SEA nonstop service work since AS is successful on nonstop service to other DL hub and focus city airports out of SEA.
 
cvgComair
Posts: 2040
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Re: The rest of Ohio - 2018

Tue Jun 05, 2018 11:23 pm

ADrum23 wrote:
Where are the plans for the parking expansion out of curiosity? I don't think they plan to replace the garages until the terminal situation is figured out.

The short-term parking has enough spots right now. They just did an overhaul of the air systems and some structural touch-ups last year. They are in the process of adding some new spots to accommodate the busiest days by relocating the pay booths.

As for long term, they are turning one half of the employee parking area into a "low cost" long term parking area. This will help the short-term parking as well, since they are sending long-term overflow into the parking garages. It should be complete fairly soon, I heard by the end of the year, but I am not 100% certain on that date.
 
flyingfromcvg
Posts: 47
Joined: Mon Jun 22, 2015 2:44 am

Re: The rest of Ohio - 2018

Wed Jun 06, 2018 1:33 am

ADrum23 wrote:
Other nearby airports have made SEA work on both AS and DL, including IND, BNA, RDU, etc, so I don't see why AS can't make it work from CVG.


All three of those markets are exactly what I’m talking about. Each has flights to SEA, LAX and SFO.
I just don’t think AS has the equipment to spare to do that at CVG and only flying to SEA won’t be worth opening a new station.
 
cvgComair
Posts: 2040
Joined: Thu Jul 07, 2016 3:48 pm

Re: The rest of Ohio - 2018

Wed Jun 06, 2018 1:44 am

flyingfromcvg wrote:
ADrum23 wrote:
Other nearby airports have made SEA work on both AS and DL, including IND, BNA, RDU, etc, so I don't see why AS can't make it work from CVG.


All three of those markets are exactly what I’m talking about. Each has flights to SEA, LAX and SFO.
I just don’t think AS has the equipment to spare to do that at CVG and only flying to SEA won’t be worth opening a new station.

I wouldn't worry too much about them needing to solve multiple airports. They recently launched PIT with just a flight to SEA. Also, RDU/IND/STL/BNA only have SEA + one additional city. I imagine more transcon routes will be dropped this fall, so it could be a possibility for S19. I think it will probably be a few more years than that, though. Eventually they will come, but the merger issues are going to slow down their expansion significantly.
 
brooklynchris13
Posts: 262
Joined: Fri Mar 19, 2010 12:11 am

Re: The rest of Ohio - 2018

Wed Jun 06, 2018 2:10 am

CMHMarc787 wrote:
For CMH, I'm gonna throw a wildcard out there:

AS for SEA, SFO, AND SAN. They could use C47-48.

Just call it a hunch.


If AS were to start CMH, I think it would be far more likely they would operate out of B and use an AA gate. It would even make sense for a code-share on any service to Seattle and, maybe PDX. Judging by AS at IND, It would appear a SEA start with perhaps the addition of PDX down the road. Best bet for SFO really does seem to be UA, with a few possibles for SAN- including WN, maybe NK, or maybe even F9. But I have to think that F9s schedule, best described as erratic, is not winning them any fans here. I will go ahead and say they face a choice in CMH: either start playing here for real or the combined forces of NK, WN, and DL will drive them right off the field. Maybe F9 will take advantage of the full gates now at C47 and C48 and make a play, but time will tell.
"Be the change you want to see in the world" (mg)
 
CMHMarc787
Posts: 88
Joined: Sat Nov 23, 2013 9:09 pm

Re: The rest of Ohio - 2018

Wed Jun 06, 2018 12:51 pm

brooklynchris13 wrote:
CMHMarc787 wrote:
For CMH, I'm gonna throw a wildcard out there:

AS for SEA, SFO, AND SAN. They could use C47-48.

Just call it a hunch.


If AS were to start CMH, I think it would be far more likely they would operate out of B and use an AA gate. It would even make sense for a code-share on any service to Seattle and, maybe PDX. Judging by AS at IND, It would appear a SEA start with perhaps the addition of PDX down the road. Best bet for SFO really does seem to be UA, with a few possibles for SAN- including WN, maybe NK, or maybe even F9. But I have to think that F9s schedule, best described as erratic, is not winning them any fans here. I will go ahead and say they face a choice in CMH: either start playing here for real or the combined forces of NK, WN, and DL will drive them right off the field. Maybe F9 will take advantage of the full gates now at C47 and C48 and make a play, but time will tell.


F9 has had no direction since re-entering the CMH market, and NK is quickly establishing itself as a player - which is not good news for F9.

UA hasn't given any indication that SFO might be in the cards, so I still think it would be a good play by AS - and, with SEA, could be a nice kick start for future PDX, and even SAN...though I will admit that it is far more likely either WN or NK would jump on SAN.
 
cvgComair
Posts: 2040
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Re: The rest of Ohio - 2018

Wed Jun 06, 2018 1:34 pm

According to the Amazon thread, it appears Amazon is starting CVG-MSP.
 
cvgComair
Posts: 2040
Joined: Thu Jul 07, 2016 3:48 pm

Re: The rest of Ohio - 2018

Wed Jun 06, 2018 5:54 pm

They also are running CVG-DEN today. We will have to wait and see, but it looks like CVG has gained 2 more routes from Amazon!
 
DeltaRules
Posts: 4902
Joined: Sat Sep 01, 2001 11:57 am

Re: The rest of Ohio - 2018

Wed Jun 06, 2018 6:54 pm

CMHMarc787 wrote:
brooklynchris13 wrote:
CMHMarc787 wrote:
For CMH, I'm gonna throw a wildcard out there:

AS for SEA, SFO, AND SAN. They could use C47-48.

Just call it a hunch.


If AS were to start CMH, I think it would be far more likely they would operate out of B and use an AA gate. It would even make sense for a code-share on any service to Seattle and, maybe PDX. Judging by AS at IND, It would appear a SEA start with perhaps the addition of PDX down the road. Best bet for SFO really does seem to be UA, with a few possibles for SAN- including WN, maybe NK, or maybe even F9. But I have to think that F9s schedule, best described as erratic, is not winning them any fans here. I will go ahead and say they face a choice in CMH: either start playing here for real or the combined forces of NK, WN, and DL will drive them right off the field. Maybe F9 will take advantage of the full gates now at C47 and C48 and make a play, but time will tell.


F9 has had no direction since re-entering the CMH market, and NK is quickly establishing itself as a player - which is not good news for F9.

UA hasn't given any indication that SFO might be in the cards, so I still think it would be a good play by AS - and, with SEA, could be a nice kick start for future PDX, and even SAN...though I will admit that it is far more likely either WN or NK would jump on SAN.


F9's got C47 branded, so I think they've staked a claim to it for now. Don't forget G4 seems to be doing fine in their own sandbox at LCK. F9 has both major ULCCs in town to deal with, plus the Big Four.

The gate situation is fascinating to me now that we know who holds leases on how many gates. Last month's board packet had the following breakdown, with my assumed gates for each:
AA- 7 (B19-23, 24, 26?)
DL- 6 (C51-56)
F9- 1 (C47)
WN- 5 (A2-6)
NK- 1 (B35)
UA/AC- 3 (B29-31?)
Unleased- 8 (Given the YTD use of these gates by airline, I would guess B25 (AA, though NK would use it for overflow before B36 reopened), B28 (AA, former UA), B32, B34 (both UA, former AA), B36 (NK), C46 (FIS), C49-50 (DL). I don't know how A1 and C48 fit into things- maybe they don't count them because they didn't/don't have jetways?

...point being there might be some places for AS to go it alone if they would come or, as suggested, maybe they shack up with AA on B.
A310/319/320/321/333, ARJ, BN2, B717/722/73S/733/734/735/73G/738/739/744/757/753/767/763/764/777, CR1/2/7/9, DH6, 328, EM2/ERJ/E70/E75/E90, F28/100, J31, L10/12/15, DC9/D93/D94/D95/M80/M88/M90/D10, SF3, SST
 
flyCMH
Posts: 2261
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Re: The rest of Ohio - 2018

Thu Jun 07, 2018 12:03 am

Sometimes it seems like CMH can't catch a break, particularly when compared to its peers:

http://www.dispatch.com/business/201806 ... oast-again

Granted, the route is mostly O&D to the "second" airport in the Bay Area on an airline with limited business appeal, albeit moreso than an airline like Spirit or Frontier, but it's still disappointing. The optimist in me would say it's a perfect opportunity for UA or AS to swoop into the market and serve SFO, leveraging their strengths to make the route work. Unfortunately, I fear the opposite, which is more of the same lack of service to the West Coast.
 
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Midwestindy
Posts: 3936
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Re: The rest of Ohio - 2018

Thu Jun 07, 2018 12:59 am

flyCMH wrote:
Sometimes it seems like CMH can't catch a break, particularly when compared to its peers:

http://www.dispatch.com/business/201806 ... oast-again

Granted, the route is mostly O&D to the "second" airport in the Bay Area on an airline with limited business appeal, albeit moreso than an airline like Spirit or Frontier, but it's still disappointing. The optimist in me would say it's a perfect opportunity for UA or AS to swoop into the market and serve SFO, leveraging their strengths to make the route work. Unfortunately, I fear the opposite, which is more of the same lack of service to the West Coast.


My 2 cents

I'm sure the air service team at CMH is working hard, but I feel as if they could do better, and in fact they sound a bit complacent which is not good in the air service world:
-David Whitaker
“I definitely don’t feel like it’s a step backward,” Whitaker said. “Seasonal adjustments are routine now. We’d prefer the market be able to support daily, year-round service, and we’re confident that it will soon. But in the meantime, we understand that the airlines see the need to make adjustments to align with demand.”

It is good that the airport is growing its LCC/ULCC options with NK and recent F9 adds, but the service to the west coast is paltry and is what needs to be on the forefront of the airports agenda. It sounds like SLC could be announced soon and SEA could be announced by 2019, however the airport still needs to address service to SFO and even SAN the first of which is an extremely important route for the tech and start up community of every mid-sized city.
Delta Diamond Medallion and AAdvantage Gold for 2019
 
jplatts
Posts: 2517
Joined: Sat Mar 18, 2017 6:42 pm

Re: The rest of Ohio - 2018

Thu Jun 07, 2018 1:09 am

Will DL ever bring back CVG-MIA nonstop service? DL used to serve MIA nonstop from CVG prior to DL downsizing its former CVG hub.
 
DeltaRules
Posts: 4902
Joined: Sat Sep 01, 2001 11:57 am

Re: The rest of Ohio - 2018

Thu Jun 07, 2018 1:13 am

Midwestindy wrote:
flyCMH wrote:
Sometimes it seems like CMH can't catch a break, particularly when compared to its peers:

http://www.dispatch.com/business/201806 ... oast-again

Granted, the route is mostly O&D to the "second" airport in the Bay Area on an airline with limited business appeal, albeit moreso than an airline like Spirit or Frontier, but it's still disappointing. The optimist in me would say it's a perfect opportunity for UA or AS to swoop into the market and serve SFO, leveraging their strengths to make the route work. Unfortunately, I fear the opposite, which is more of the same lack of service to the West Coast.


My 2 cents

I'm sure the air service team at CMH is working hard, but I feel as if they could do better, and in fact they sound a bit complacent which is not good in the air service world:
-David Whitaker
“I definitely don’t feel like it’s a step backward,” Whitaker said. “Seasonal adjustments are routine now. We’d prefer the market be able to support daily, year-round service, and we’re confident that it will soon. But in the meantime, we understand that the airlines see the need to make adjustments to align with demand.”

It is good that the airport is growing its LCC/ULCC options with NK and recent F9 adds, but the service to the west coast is paltry and is what needs to be on the forefront of the airports agenda. It sounds like SLC could be announced soon and SEA could be announced by 2019, however the airport still needs to address service to SFO and even SAN the first of which is an extremely important route for the tech and start up community of every mid-sized city.


Is this part of a seasonal pulldown at OAK as happened last year or is this specific to CMH?

Either way, c'mon down UA/AS.
A310/319/320/321/333, ARJ, BN2, B717/722/73S/733/734/735/73G/738/739/744/757/753/767/763/764/777, CR1/2/7/9, DH6, 328, EM2/ERJ/E70/E75/E90, F28/100, J31, L10/12/15, DC9/D93/D94/D95/M80/M88/M90/D10, SF3, SST
 
jplatts
Posts: 2517
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Re: The rest of Ohio - 2018

Thu Jun 07, 2018 1:17 am

DeltaRules wrote:
Is this part of a seasonal pulldown at OAK as happened last year or is this specific to CMH?

Either way, c'mon down UA/AS.


I agree that UA could add CMH-SFO nonstop service since UA did add SFO-CVG and SFO-DTW nonstop service last year. CMH is also located in the largest Midwestern city that doesn't already have nonstop service to SFO on UA.
 
cvgComair
Posts: 2040
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Re: The rest of Ohio - 2018

Thu Jun 07, 2018 1:29 am

jplatts wrote:
Will DL ever bring back CVG-MIA nonstop service? DL used to serve MIA nonstop from CVG prior to DL downsizing its former CVG hub.

I am kind of suprised they don’t offer the route at least seasonally. Some of the sat-only flying is being drawn down out of MIA, but RDU still has FLL and MIA, so I think it is more than just DL’s CVG-FLL route inhibiting this add. In theory, the route would do just fine, but like JAX, I think DL would rather push passengers through ATL to the weaker southern markets. DL could probably make money on Saturday flying with routes like CVG-MYR/CHS/SAV/JAX/MIA/PBI/SRQ/etc, but ATL is always going to be an inhibitor to these kinds of routes.
 
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ricport
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Re: The rest of Ohio - 2018

Thu Jun 07, 2018 1:14 pm

Midwestindy wrote:
flyCMH wrote:
Sometimes it seems like CMH can't catch a break, particularly when compared to its peers:

http://www.dispatch.com/business/201806 ... oast-again

Granted, the route is mostly O&D to the "second" airport in the Bay Area on an airline with limited business appeal, albeit moreso than an airline like Spirit or Frontier, but it's still disappointing. The optimist in me would say it's a perfect opportunity for UA or AS to swoop into the market and serve SFO, leveraging their strengths to make the route work. Unfortunately, I fear the opposite, which is more of the same lack of service to the West Coast.


My 2 cents

I'm sure the air service team at CMH is working hard, but I feel as if they could do better, and in fact they sound a bit complacent which is not good in the air service world.


They definitely could do better. I've been advocating for years for the powers that be in Columbus to bang on UA's doors to get nonstop SFO service. How about also kibbutzing with Honda execs and execs from the other Asian suppliers to Honda in central Ohio and see if they'd be willing to make any commitments for their folks to fly the route (as Raleigh-Durham did with AA service to Europe)? If IND, PIT & CVG can get SFO nonstop, CMH certainly should be able to.

And am surprised the OAK service on the cattle car lasted as long as it did. Most of the business in the Bay Area is closer to SFO or SJC, and the only thing that's worse than flying an hour on WN is flying five. It should not be used as some kind of metric as to whether or not a biz traveler-appealing airline like the Big 3 could sustain CMH service to the Bay Area.
 
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Midwestindy
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Re: The rest of Ohio - 2018

Thu Jun 07, 2018 1:35 pm

ricport wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:
flyCMH wrote:
Sometimes it seems like CMH can't catch a break, particularly when compared to its peers:

http://www.dispatch.com/business/201806 ... oast-again

Granted, the route is mostly O&D to the "second" airport in the Bay Area on an airline with limited business appeal, albeit moreso than an airline like Spirit or Frontier, but it's still disappointing. The optimist in me would say it's a perfect opportunity for UA or AS to swoop into the market and serve SFO, leveraging their strengths to make the route work. Unfortunately, I fear the opposite, which is more of the same lack of service to the West Coast.


My 2 cents

I'm sure the air service team at CMH is working hard, but I feel as if they could do better, and in fact they sound a bit complacent which is not good in the air service world.


They definitely could do better. I've been advocating for years for the powers that be in Columbus to bang on UA's doors to get nonstop SFO service. How about also kibbutzing with Honda execs and execs from the other Asian suppliers to Honda in central Ohio and see if they'd be willing to make any commitments for their folks to fly the route (as Raleigh-Durham did with AA service to Europe)? If IND, PIT & CVG can get SFO nonstop, CMH certainly should be able to.

And am surprised the OAK service on the cattle car lasted as long as it did. Most of the business in the Bay Area is closer to SFO or SJC, and the only thing that's worse than flying an hour on WN is flying five. It should not be used as some kind of metric as to whether or not a biz traveler-appealing airline like the Big 3 could sustain CMH service to the Bay Area.


Yeah, I don't think the airport is working with local businesses like they should be.

For example, in Indy I know back when IND first got UA service to SFO Salesforce agreed to purchase X number of seats on the flight. And back in 2014-2015 the IND airport talked to Eli Lilly to get their support for new WN flights to LGA, DCA, LAX, and BOS.

If CMH organizes agreements like that, I think there would be nonstops to SFO, SEA, SLC, SAN, Europe, e.t.c by now.
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flyCMH
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Re: The rest of Ohio - 2018

Thu Jun 07, 2018 4:01 pm

Midwestindy wrote:
ricport wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:
Yeah, I don't think the airport is working with local businesses like they should be.


I think a large part of that is because the local business community was burned quite badly when the airport went soliciting to fund the Skybus fiasco. Local companies invested heavily in the airline - particularly Nationwide, which even had an aircraft painted in its corporate ID.

No doubt the business community is weary of any other attempts at utilizing their funds to finance a project that might end up being a dud. While we all know backing established carriers to a single, important market is a far more palpable proposal, the local business community likely needs far more convincing.
 
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ricport
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Re: The rest of Ohio - 2018

Thu Jun 07, 2018 6:57 pm

flyCMH wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:
ricport wrote:


I think a large part of that is because the local business community was burned quite badly when the airport went soliciting to fund the Skybus fiasco. Local companies invested heavily in the airline - particularly Nationwide, which even had an aircraft painted in its corporate ID.

No doubt the business community is weary of any other attempts at utilizing their funds to finance a project that might end up being a dud. While we all know backing established carriers to a single, important market is a far more palpable proposal, the local business community likely needs far more convincing.


Excellent point. Yes, the pooch was definitely boinked on the Skybus fiasco. Nevertheless, enough time has elapsed that the airport folks should be compiling #s showing how it can benefit everyone to get better service and start knocking on some corporate doors. Start small with nonstop SFO service on UA and build trust for a bigger ask down the road.
 
WWads
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Re: The rest of Ohio - 2018

Thu Jun 07, 2018 8:37 pm

cvgComair wrote:
jplatts wrote:
Will DL ever bring back CVG-MIA nonstop service? DL used to serve MIA nonstop from CVG prior to DL downsizing its former CVG hub.

I am kind of suprised they don’t offer the route at least seasonally. Some of the sat-only flying is being drawn down out of MIA, but RDU still has FLL and MIA, so I think it is more than just DL’s CVG-FLL route inhibiting this add. In theory, the route would do just fine, but like JAX, I think DL would rather push passengers through ATL to the weaker southern markets. DL could probably make money on Saturday flying with routes like CVG-MYR/CHS/SAV/JAX/MIA/PBI/SRQ/etc, but ATL is always going to be an inhibitor to these kinds of routes.


I disagree. For the longest time AA operated that route with a 1x daily ERJ-145, often with deep-discount fares a few days before departure. Now it's 2x daily, but still only 50-seaters. I don't think there's enough demand to justify another carrier, even on Saturdays.
 
CMHMarc787
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Re: The rest of Ohio - 2018

Thu Jun 07, 2018 8:43 pm

ricport wrote:
flyCMH wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:


I think a large part of that is because the local business community was burned quite badly when the airport went soliciting to fund the Skybus fiasco. Local companies invested heavily in the airline - particularly Nationwide, which even had an aircraft painted in its corporate ID.

No doubt the business community is weary of any other attempts at utilizing their funds to finance a project that might end up being a dud. While we all know backing established carriers to a single, important market is a far more palpable proposal, the local business community likely needs far more convincing.


Excellent point. Yes, the pooch was definitely boinked on the Skybus fiasco. Nevertheless, enough time has elapsed that the airport folks should be compiling #s showing how it can benefit everyone to get better service and start knocking on some corporate doors. Start small with nonstop SFO service on UA and build trust for a bigger ask down the road.


I'm still thinking this would be a good opportunity for AS to start both SEA and SFO. Since they are #2 at SFO, it's a case of, if UA ain't gonna take it, AS should do it - and, coupled with SEA, sets them up for future PDX, and even (potentially, albeit remotely) SAN. After seeing some of the previous comments, they'd fit quite nicely at B25 or B28.
 
DeltaRules
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Re: The rest of Ohio - 2018

Fri Jun 08, 2018 3:44 am

UA's DAY-IAH starts tomorrow. It's already been upgauged for July (too tired to look, figuring a CR7 or E70/E75) and the airport director says they're planning on talking to UA soon for a second daily to IAH.
A310/319/320/321/333, ARJ, BN2, B717/722/73S/733/734/735/73G/738/739/744/757/753/767/763/764/777, CR1/2/7/9, DH6, 328, EM2/ERJ/E70/E75/E90, F28/100, J31, L10/12/15, DC9/D93/D94/D95/M80/M88/M90/D10, SF3, SST
 
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ricport
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Re: The rest of Ohio - 2018

Fri Jun 08, 2018 12:20 pm

CMHMarc787 wrote:
ricport wrote:
flyCMH wrote:

I think a large part of that is because the local business community was burned quite badly when the airport went soliciting to fund the Skybus fiasco. Local companies invested heavily in the airline - particularly Nationwide, which even had an aircraft painted in its corporate ID.

No doubt the business community is weary of any other attempts at utilizing their funds to finance a project that might end up being a dud. While we all know backing established carriers to a single, important market is a far more palpable proposal, the local business community likely needs far more convincing.


Excellent point. Yes, the pooch was definitely boinked on the Skybus fiasco. Nevertheless, enough time has elapsed that the airport folks should be compiling #s showing how it can benefit everyone to get better service and start knocking on some corporate doors. Start small with nonstop SFO service on UA and build trust for a bigger ask down the road.


I'm still thinking this would be a good opportunity for AS to start both SEA and SFO. Since they are #2 at SFO, it's a case of, if UA ain't gonna take it, AS should do it - and, coupled with SEA, sets them up for future PDX, and even (potentially, albeit remotely) SAN. After seeing some of the previous comments, they'd fit quite nicely at B25 or B28.


Agreed. If UA won't do it, I hope AS comes in. Still, AS can't provide the Asian connections like UA can, so it would be far preferable to have them come in. It's WAY past time for the CRAA to get corporate support lined up. Then, start calling Oscar Munoz & his people out publicly (but politely). Invite them for a tour of the city. Set up meetings with the key corporate players. Line up government financial backing if you have to. Put the grandiose ambitions for nonstop Europe service on pause and start small.
 
cledaybuck
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Re: The rest of Ohio - 2018

Fri Jun 08, 2018 12:38 pm

ricport wrote:
And am surprised the OAK service on the cattle car lasted as long as it did. Most of the business in the Bay Area is closer to SFO or SJC, and the only thing that's worse than flying an hour on WN is flying five. It should not be used as some kind of metric as to whether or not a biz traveler-appealing airline like the Big 3 could sustain CMH service to the Bay Area.
Give me a break.
 
DeltaRules
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Re: The rest of Ohio - 2018

Fri Jun 08, 2018 1:16 pm

Photos from the departure of the first (resumed) DAY-IAH flight. CAK-IAH starts today, as well:

https://twitter.com/DAY_IntlAirport/sta ... 8597115910

DAY-IAH goes E75 on July 6th, though it looks like CAK stays on the ERJ.

CMHMarc787 wrote:
ricport wrote:
flyCMH wrote:

I think a large part of that is because the local business community was burned quite badly when the airport went soliciting to fund the Skybus fiasco. Local companies invested heavily in the airline - particularly Nationwide, which even had an aircraft painted in its corporate ID.

No doubt the business community is weary of any other attempts at utilizing their funds to finance a project that might end up being a dud. While we all know backing established carriers to a single, important market is a far more palpable proposal, the local business community likely needs far more convincing.


Excellent point. Yes, the pooch was definitely boinked on the Skybus fiasco. Nevertheless, enough time has elapsed that the airport folks should be compiling #s showing how it can benefit everyone to get better service and start knocking on some corporate doors. Start small with nonstop SFO service on UA and build trust for a bigger ask down the road.


I'm still thinking this would be a good opportunity for AS to start both SEA and SFO. Since they are #2 at SFO, it's a case of, if UA ain't gonna take it, AS should do it - and, coupled with SEA, sets them up for future PDX, and even (potentially, albeit remotely) SAN. After seeing some of the previous comments, they'd fit quite nicely at B25 or B28.


I figure they could go to B25 and run two departures a day between the AA flights. B25's more of a mainline-sized gate anyway; I know B28 used to be able to handle UA 757s, but don't know if they changed things when they replaced the jetway and AA came in.

edit- Apparently B28 can still handle any of AA's narrowbodies. Page 21 here: https://columbusairports.com/storage/pr ... -final.pdf
A310/319/320/321/333, ARJ, BN2, B717/722/73S/733/734/735/73G/738/739/744/757/753/767/763/764/777, CR1/2/7/9, DH6, 328, EM2/ERJ/E70/E75/E90, F28/100, J31, L10/12/15, DC9/D93/D94/D95/M80/M88/M90/D10, SF3, SST
 
cledaybuck
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Re: The rest of Ohio - 2018

Fri Jun 08, 2018 1:44 pm

flyCMH wrote:
Sometimes it seems like CMH can't catch a break, particularly when compared to its peers:

http://www.dispatch.com/business/201806 ... oast-again

Granted, the route is mostly O&D to the "second" airport in the Bay Area on an airline with limited business appeal, albeit moreso than an airline like Spirit or Frontier, but it's still disappointing. The optimist in me would say it's a perfect opportunity for UA or AS to swoop into the market and serve SFO, leveraging their strengths to make the route work. Unfortunately, I fear the opposite, which is more of the same lack of service to the West Coast.
I think we might be overblowing this a little bit. While it is not a good sign, it is not as bad as the article makes it sound. WN extended their schedule from November 4-January 6. Here is when they non stop operates during those times.
11/4-11-10 - 7 days a week
11/11-11/17 - 7 days a week
11/18-11/24 - 2X Su, M, T, W, Sa
11/25-12/1 - 2X Su, M, T
12/2-12/8 - Su
12/9-12/15 - Su
12/16-12/22 - 2X Su, W, R, F, Sa
12/23-12/29 - Su, W, R, F, Sa
12/30-1/5 - 2X Su, T, W
Also operates Sunday 1/6.
Based on the above, I don't think this flight is going away. I would agree there is a good chance of suspended or less than daily service in January and February again, but I am willing to bet it will be back to daily (more or less) by springtime.
 
brooklynchris13
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Re: The rest of Ohio - 2018

Fri Jun 08, 2018 2:10 pm

cledaybuck wrote:
flyCMH wrote:
Sometimes it seems like CMH can't catch a break, particularly when compared to its peers:

http://www.dispatch.com/business/201806 ... oast-again

Granted, the route is mostly O&D to the "second" airport in the Bay Area on an airline with limited business appeal, albeit moreso than an airline like Spirit or Frontier, but it's still disappointing. The optimist in me would say it's a perfect opportunity for UA or AS to swoop into the market and serve SFO, leveraging their strengths to make the route work. Unfortunately, I fear the opposite, which is more of the same lack of service to the West Coast.
I think we might be overblowing this a little bit. While it is not a good sign, it is not as bad as the article makes it sound. WN extended their schedule from November 4-January 6. Here is when they non stop operates during those times.
11/4-11-10 - 7 days a week
11/11-11/17 - 7 days a week
11/18-11/24 - 2X Su, M, T, W, Sa
11/25-12/1 - 2X Su, M, T
12/2-12/8 - Su
12/9-12/15 - Su
12/16-12/22 - 2X Su, W, R, F, Sa
12/23-12/29 - Su, W, R, F, Sa
12/30-1/5 - 2X Su, T, W
Also operates Sunday 1/6.
Based on the above, I don't think this flight is going away. I would agree there is a good chance of suspended or less than daily service in January and February again, but I am willing to bet it will be back to daily (more or less) by springtime.



Thank you for the summary above. That is very helpful and, even more importantly, rational. Much appreciated. On the topic of WN, what are the next big possible adds for them at CMH? Now that HOU will be daily, would a daily MSY be a possibility? Like many others I was shocked that we did not get an LGA flight in the recent adds, so I have to admit I do not know what to expect from them here. On a related note, with A2-A6 + 2nd parking positions at A6 and A2, that would give them, in effect 8 gates. What would the maximum level of flights be for them at that amount of gate space? I have heard somewhere around 8-9 a day per gate is pretty much optimal use, which would put it well above where they are now but with bigger A/C and smaller hold rooms, maybe thats not realistic?
"Be the change you want to see in the world" (mg)
 
cledaybuck
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Re: The rest of Ohio - 2018

Fri Jun 08, 2018 2:29 pm

brooklynchris13 wrote:
cledaybuck wrote:
flyCMH wrote:
Sometimes it seems like CMH can't catch a break, particularly when compared to its peers:

http://www.dispatch.com/business/201806 ... oast-again

Granted, the route is mostly O&D to the "second" airport in the Bay Area on an airline with limited business appeal, albeit moreso than an airline like Spirit or Frontier, but it's still disappointing. The optimist in me would say it's a perfect opportunity for UA or AS to swoop into the market and serve SFO, leveraging their strengths to make the route work. Unfortunately, I fear the opposite, which is more of the same lack of service to the West Coast.
I think we might be overblowing this a little bit. While it is not a good sign, it is not as bad as the article makes it sound. WN extended their schedule from November 4-January 6. Here is when they non stop operates during those times.
11/4-11-10 - 7 days a week
11/11-11/17 - 7 days a week
11/18-11/24 - 2X Su, M, T, W, Sa
11/25-12/1 - 2X Su, M, T
12/2-12/8 - Su
12/9-12/15 - Su
12/16-12/22 - 2X Su, W, R, F, Sa
12/23-12/29 - Su, W, R, F, Sa
12/30-1/5 - 2X Su, T, W
Also operates Sunday 1/6.
Based on the above, I don't think this flight is going away. I would agree there is a good chance of suspended or less than daily service in January and February again, but I am willing to bet it will be back to daily (more or less) by springtime.



Thank you for the summary above. That is very helpful and, even more importantly, rational. Much appreciated. On the topic of WN, what are the next big possible adds for them at CMH? Now that HOU will be daily, would a daily MSY be a possibility? Like many others I was shocked that we did not get an LGA flight in the recent adds, so I have to admit I do not know what to expect from them here. On a related note, with A2-A6 + 2nd parking positions at A6 and A2, that would give them, in effect 8 gates. What would the maximum level of flights be for them at that amount of gate space? I have heard somewhere around 8-9 a day per gate is pretty much optimal use, which would put it well above where they are now but with bigger A/C and smaller hold rooms, maybe thats not realistic?
I don't think there are many possible adds for WN at CMH. I guess LGA, LAX, MCI, MSY, SAN, or RDU could be possibilities, but I don't see any of them as likely. I would imagine most growth in the future for WN at CMH would come from increased frequencies/gauge on existing routes.
 
jplatts
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Re: The rest of Ohio - 2018

Fri Jun 08, 2018 2:36 pm

brooklynchris13 wrote:
Thank you for the summary above. That is very helpful and, even more importantly, rational. Much appreciated. On the topic of WN, what are the next big possible adds for them at CMH? Now that HOU will be daily, would a daily MSY be a possibility? Like many others I was shocked that we did not get an LGA flight in the recent adds, so I have to admit I do not know what to expect from them here. On a related note, with A2-A6 + 2nd parking positions at A6 and A2, that would give them, in effect 8 gates. What would the maximum level of flights be for them at that amount of gate space? I have heard somewhere around 8-9 a day per gate is pretty much optimal use, which would put it well above where they are now but with bigger A/C and smaller hold rooms, maybe thats not realistic?


There are a few airports where WN already does 10 or more departures per day per gate, including AUS, BUR, DAL, MCI, LAX, and SJC. WN does have enough room at CMH to do at least 50 daily departures out out of CMH, and WN only currently does 36 departures a day out of CMH. WN does have room to add more flights out of CMH.
 
DeltaRules
Posts: 4902
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Re: The rest of Ohio - 2018

Sat Jun 09, 2018 4:11 pm

cledaybuck wrote:
brooklynchris13 wrote:
cledaybuck wrote:
I think we might be overblowing this a little bit. While it is not a good sign, it is not as bad as the article makes it sound. WN extended their schedule from November 4-January 6. Here is when they non stop operates during those times.
11/4-11-10 - 7 days a week
11/11-11/17 - 7 days a week
11/18-11/24 - 2X Su, M, T, W, Sa
11/25-12/1 - 2X Su, M, T
12/2-12/8 - Su
12/9-12/15 - Su
12/16-12/22 - 2X Su, W, R, F, Sa
12/23-12/29 - Su, W, R, F, Sa
12/30-1/5 - 2X Su, T, W
Also operates Sunday 1/6.
Based on the above, I don't think this flight is going away. I would agree there is a good chance of suspended or less than daily service in January and February again, but I am willing to bet it will be back to daily (more or less) by springtime.



Thank you for the summary above. That is very helpful and, even more importantly, rational. Much appreciated. On the topic of WN, what are the next big possible adds for them at CMH? Now that HOU will be daily, would a daily MSY be a possibility? Like many others I was shocked that we did not get an LGA flight in the recent adds, so I have to admit I do not know what to expect from them here. On a related note, with A2-A6 + 2nd parking positions at A6 and A2, that would give them, in effect 8 gates. What would the maximum level of flights be for them at that amount of gate space? I have heard somewhere around 8-9 a day per gate is pretty much optimal use, which would put it well above where they are now but with bigger A/C and smaller hold rooms, maybe thats not realistic?
I don't think there are many possible adds for WN at CMH. I guess LGA, LAX, MCI, MSY, SAN, or RDU could be possibilities, but I don't see any of them as likely. I would imagine most growth in the future for WN at CMH would come from increased frequencies/gauge on existing routes.


I agree about OAK. It looks to me it's a seasonal suspension just like last winter.

As for the future, they already operate MSY and the seemingly-promised LGA ship may have sailed, at least for now. I think they're the leading candidate for the SAN service CMH wants and could see MCI added. LAX might be a bit crowded with DL and AA, but maybe all three could coexist on the route?

I'd also gone completely blank on Skybus. I wonder how different things might be at CMH if they hadn't existed. I think B6 would've left anyway, as SX added flights to SWF in response to B6 saying they were leaving.
A310/319/320/321/333, ARJ, BN2, B717/722/73S/733/734/735/73G/738/739/744/757/753/767/763/764/777, CR1/2/7/9, DH6, 328, EM2/ERJ/E70/E75/E90, F28/100, J31, L10/12/15, DC9/D93/D94/D95/M80/M88/M90/D10, SF3, SST
 
cledaybuck
Posts: 1392
Joined: Thu Aug 18, 2016 6:07 pm

Re: The rest of Ohio - 2018

Sat Jun 09, 2018 5:40 pm

DeltaRules wrote:
cledaybuck wrote:
brooklynchris13 wrote:


Thank you for the summary above. That is very helpful and, even more importantly, rational. Much appreciated. On the topic of WN, what are the next big possible adds for them at CMH? Now that HOU will be daily, would a daily MSY be a possibility? Like many others I was shocked that we did not get an LGA flight in the recent adds, so I have to admit I do not know what to expect from them here. On a related note, with A2-A6 + 2nd parking positions at A6 and A2, that would give them, in effect 8 gates. What would the maximum level of flights be for them at that amount of gate space? I have heard somewhere around 8-9 a day per gate is pretty much optimal use, which would put it well above where they are now but with bigger A/C and smaller hold rooms, maybe thats not realistic?
I don't think there are many possible adds for WN at CMH. I guess LGA, LAX, MCI, MSY, SAN, or RDU could be possibilities, but I don't see any of them as likely. I would imagine most growth in the future for WN at CMH would come from increased frequencies/gauge on existing routes.


I agree about OAK. It looks to me it's a seasonal suspension just like last winter.

As for the future, they already operate MSY and the seemingly-promised LGA ship may have sailed, at least for now. I think they're the leading candidate for the SAN service CMH wants and could see MCI added. LAX might be a bit crowded with DL and AA, but maybe all three could coexist on the route?

I'd also gone completely blank on Skybus. I wonder how different things might be at CMH if they hadn't existed. I think B6 would've left anyway, as SX added flights to SWF in response to B6 saying they were leaving.
Yeah, if Skybus going to SWF is what caused them to leave, they weren't long for CMH anyway. B6's problem was they flew to JFK when LGA is the preferred airport for NYC (and already has plenty of service) and BOS already had DL and is really more of a RJ sized market to get a least 2x frequency.

As for WN, your ideas sound reasonable. I don't think three carriers could coexist long term on CHH-LAX, but I think WN could push someone off the route if they wanted to (although I don't think they really care that much). I am looking forward to flying CMH-OAK in less than two weeks.
 
Jshank83
Posts: 2678
Joined: Tue Nov 01, 2016 2:23 pm

Re: The rest of Ohio - 2018

Sat Jun 09, 2018 5:55 pm

DeltaRules wrote:
As for the future, they already operate MSY and the seemingly-promised LGA ship may have sailed, at least for now. I think they're the leading candidate for the SAN service CMH wants and could see MCI added. LAX might be a bit crowded with DL and AA, but maybe all three could coexist on the route?



FWIW, a MCI management person recently said MCI-CMH was still a few years away.
 
jplatts
Posts: 2517
Joined: Sat Mar 18, 2017 6:42 pm

Re: The rest of Ohio - 2018

Sat Jun 09, 2018 7:32 pm

cledaybuck wrote:
DeltaRules wrote:
cledaybuck wrote:
I don't think there are many possible adds for WN at CMH. I guess LGA, LAX, MCI, MSY, SAN, or RDU could be possibilities, but I don't see any of them as likely. I would imagine most growth in the future for WN at CMH would come from increased frequencies/gauge on existing routes.


LAX might be a bit crowded with DL and AA, but maybe all three could coexist on the route?


As for WN, your ideas sound reasonable. I don't think three carriers could coexist long term on CMH-LAX, but I think WN could push someone off the route if they wanted to (although I don't think they really care that much).


CVG currently has nonstop service to LAX on DL, G4, and F9, and there are some days where there are 4 nonstops in each direction between LAX and CVG. The O&D demand between CMH and LAX was greater than the O&D demand between CVG and LAX in 2015, but that changed last year after G4 added CVG-LAX nonstop service and WN started service out of CVG.

CMH can probably support nonstop service to LAX on a 3rd airline since CMH is located in a market similar in size to CVG, since there are currently no LCC's or ULCC's serving LAX nonstop from CMH, and since CMH currently has less nonstop service to LAX than CVG does. WN can likely stimulate additional demand for CMH-LAX service if it adds CMH-LAX nonstop service since an similar increase in demand for CVG-LAX service happened when F9 and G4 added CVG-LAX nonstop service.
 
DeltaRules
Posts: 4902
Joined: Sat Sep 01, 2001 11:57 am

Re: The rest of Ohio - 2018

Sun Jun 10, 2018 2:32 am

DAY 2018 statistics through April: http://www.flydayton.com/wp-content/upl ... 201804.pdf

AA -1.5%
DL +2.1%
UA -1.9%
G4 +9.1% (they ran an almost identical number of passengers in January. '18 was one person fewer!)
Overall -12.1% (I think a lot of this has to do with WN leaving.)

I'm curious as to how DAY-IAH does. As I alluded to earlier, it's on an E175 in July, so there must be good things going on in the short-term.
A310/319/320/321/333, ARJ, BN2, B717/722/73S/733/734/735/73G/738/739/744/757/753/767/763/764/777, CR1/2/7/9, DH6, 328, EM2/ERJ/E70/E75/E90, F28/100, J31, L10/12/15, DC9/D93/D94/D95/M80/M88/M90/D10, SF3, SST
 
cvgComair
Posts: 2040
Joined: Thu Jul 07, 2016 3:48 pm

Re: The rest of Ohio - 2018

Tue Jun 12, 2018 1:48 am

Some updates with Delta. Effective next year, there is going to be a lot more Saturday flying. By May, they have put up full schedules on Saturday and Sunday, with all routes except CUN operating daily. If these schedule stick, that is a pretty big increase in seats as their ops are basically dormant on Saturday/Sunday.

Also, CVG-LGA mainline is now scheduled year round and CVG-MSP is keeping 2x/day mainline.

I am very interested to see what DL has planned for next year. We probably will have to wait until the fall or winter, but DL seems to be in a very good position right now.
 
ADrum23
Posts: 1789
Joined: Fri Jul 14, 2017 11:54 pm

Re: The rest of Ohio - 2018

Tue Jun 12, 2018 1:54 am

cvgComair wrote:
Some updates with Delta. Effective next year, there is going to be a lot more Saturday flying. By May, they have put up full schedules on Saturday and Sunday, with all routes except CUN operating daily. If these schedule stick, that is a pretty big increase in seats as their ops are basically dormant on Saturday/Sunday.

Also, CVG-LGA mainline is now scheduled year round and CVG-MSP is keeping 2x/day mainline.

I am very interested to see what DL has planned for next year. We probably will have to wait until the fall or winter, but DL seems to be in a very good position right now.


Anything about the overall number of flights going back closer to 100?
 
cvgComair
Posts: 2040
Joined: Thu Jul 07, 2016 3:48 pm

Re: The rest of Ohio - 2018

Tue Jun 12, 2018 3:13 am

ADrum23 wrote:
cvgComair wrote:
Some updates with Delta. Effective next year, there is going to be a lot more Saturday flying. By May, they have put up full schedules on Saturday and Sunday, with all routes except CUN operating daily. If these schedule stick, that is a pretty big increase in seats as their ops are basically dormant on Saturday/Sunday.

Also, CVG-LGA mainline is now scheduled year round and CVG-MSP is keeping 2x/day mainline.

I am very interested to see what DL has planned for next year. We probably will have to wait until the fall or winter, but DL seems to be in a very good position right now.

Anything about the overall number of flights going back closer to 100?

I don't know anything about planned flight numbers, but the wait is on the C-Series deliveries for new flights. It seems like those with knowledge on IND/RDU/AUS have heard similar things about new routes being delayed until RJs can be freed up. The goal for DL is to serve the largest markets from CVG, so the markets with highest demand that DL does not serve include San Diego, Portland, New Orleans, Jacksonville, Savannah, and San Antonio. DL doesn't seem too concerned with connecting passengers, so I think it is unlikely daily flights will change much.

In general, the last time I heard anything about going back to the 100 flight was in late 2016. The only way they would get back to this number is adding back some of the shorter CRJ-200 routes like PIT/MEM/RIC/XNA/etc. I know that MEM and XNA are currently pushing DL to restore service to Cincinnati, but I am skeptical that either will be successful. PIT was working on it as well, but I have not heard or seen anything recently, so I would assume they stopped pursuing it after OneJet took over the route.
 
DeltaRules
Posts: 4902
Joined: Sat Sep 01, 2001 11:57 am

Re: The rest of Ohio - 2018

Wed Jun 13, 2018 3:08 am

G4 is dropping a handful of routes, supposedly seasonally. None of CVG/LCK/DAY/TOL/HTS ("our" airports) are affected, but CLE-AUS and JAX and PIT-MSY and JAX got the axe in the region.
A310/319/320/321/333, ARJ, BN2, B717/722/73S/733/734/735/73G/738/739/744/757/753/767/763/764/777, CR1/2/7/9, DH6, 328, EM2/ERJ/E70/E75/E90, F28/100, J31, L10/12/15, DC9/D93/D94/D95/M80/M88/M90/D10, SF3, SST

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