SNN707
Posts: 111
Joined: Thu May 10, 2018 11:32 pm

Re: The MSY Thread - 2018

Thu Sep 13, 2018 2:49 am

DJSNOLA wrote:
looks like the parking contract for the new terminal was awarded


A month or so ago, there was a piledriver working on the east side of the terminal. Since then, nothing, so it was probably test piles for the 2nd garage.
 
User avatar
LAX772LR
Posts: 12496
Joined: Sun Nov 09, 2014 11:06 pm

Re: The MSY Thread - 2018

Thu Sep 13, 2018 5:05 am

DJSNOLA wrote:
BTW didnt realize thomas cook was sister airines with Condor

...even though it says "Thomas Cook" clear as day, on every single one of Condor's planes? :spin:

Image
I myself, suspect a more prosaic motive... ~Thranduil
 
DJSNOLA
Posts: 649
Joined: Tue Apr 11, 2017 3:40 pm

Re: The MSY Thread - 2018

Fri Sep 14, 2018 4:39 pm

SNN707 wrote:
DJSNOLA wrote:
looks like the parking contract for the new terminal was awarded


A month or so ago, there was a piledriver working on the east side of the terminal. Since then, nothing, so it was probably test piles for the 2nd garage.



sorry i meant the parking operator for all the other garages.. the long term garage was awarded a while back i think
 
DJSNOLA
Posts: 649
Joined: Tue Apr 11, 2017 3:40 pm

Re: The MSY Thread - 2018

Fri Sep 14, 2018 4:40 pm

LAX772LR wrote:
DJSNOLA wrote:
BTW didnt realize thomas cook was sister airines with Condor

...even though it says "Thomas Cook" clear as day, on every single one of Condor's planes? :spin:

Image



i never looked at one of their planes before lol
 
NolaMD88fan
Posts: 1392
Joined: Wed Oct 01, 2014 4:07 am

Re: The MSY Thread - 2018

Sat Sep 15, 2018 5:00 am

One thing I've noticed is the disparity between the reported pax numbers from LHR and MSY official stats. This has occurred with every report issued by the respective agencies. The UK CAA posted July stats (https://www.caa.co.uk/uploadedFiles/CAA ... alysis.pdf), and they show 7,564 pax flew with BA on the MSY-LHR route, but MSY airport stats show only 7,257 pax. The load factor difference is 84.2% (UK stats) vs. 80.7% (MSY stats). Anyone know why such a significant difference in the reported numbers exists.
 
NolaMD88fan
Posts: 1392
Joined: Wed Oct 01, 2014 4:07 am

Re: The MSY Thread - 2018

Sun Sep 16, 2018 4:56 am

Figured out my own question. MSY probably only counts revenue pax while LHR counts revenue and non-revenue pax. Thus the higher numbers from LHR officials.
 
SNN707
Posts: 111
Joined: Thu May 10, 2018 11:32 pm

Re: The MSY Thread - 2018

Sun Sep 16, 2018 7:02 am

NolaMD88fan wrote:
Figured out my own question. MSY probably only counts revenue pax while LHR counts revenue and non-revenue pax. Thus the higher numbers from LHR officials.


I'm surprised at the difference between rev and nonrev pax on any route to LHR. Simply because its worst award redemption in the points game by far due to large fuel and fee charges. You may pay upwards of $500 in fees to LHR vs $5.60 on many routes, and BA is widely disparaged in the points community for this. So you would expect very few nonrev award seats going to LHR. At any rate, I'm pleased to see the LHR route doing so well out of MSY no matter what the figure, especially vs other markets.
 
User avatar
LAX772LR
Posts: 12496
Joined: Sun Nov 09, 2014 11:06 pm

Re: The MSY Thread - 2018

Sun Sep 16, 2018 7:54 am

SNN707 wrote:
especially vs other markets.

...such as who?

I'd say MSY's total pax volume on the route is somewhat of a disappointment, relative to the rapid growth we saw in AUS and now in BNA (which is already posting higher numbers).

Prices are sky-high on MSY-LHR though, so if people are paying what's advertised, then I'm betting BA's probably quite happy with revenue. But would be nice to see some volume growth compared to what others so quickly amassed. :(
I myself, suspect a more prosaic motive... ~Thranduil
 
DJSNOLA
Posts: 649
Joined: Tue Apr 11, 2017 3:40 pm

Re: The MSY Thread - 2018

Sun Sep 16, 2018 4:16 pm

LAX772LR wrote:
SNN707 wrote:
especially vs other markets.

...such as who?

I'd say MSY's total pax volume on the route is somewhat of a disappointment, relative to the rapid growth we saw in AUS and now in BNA (which is already posting higher numbers).

Prices are sky-high on MSY-LHR though, so if people are paying what's advertised, then I'm betting BA's probably quite happy with revenue. But would be nice to see some volume growth compared to what others so quickly amassed. :(



obviously all an airline cares about is revenue but the tickets are seriously expensive and would be nice to see a tad more aggressive pricing
 
msycajun
Posts: 1064
Joined: Thu Jun 16, 2016 4:13 am

Re: The MSY Thread - 2018

Sun Sep 16, 2018 4:48 pm

LAX772LR wrote:
SNN707 wrote:
especially vs other markets.

...such as who?

I'd say MSY's total pax volume on the route is somewhat of a disappointment, relative to the rapid growth we saw in AUS and now in BNA (which is already posting higher numbers).

Prices are sky-high on MSY-LHR though, so if people are paying what's advertised, then I'm betting BA's probably quite happy with revenue. But would be nice to see some volume growth compared to what others so quickly amassed. :(


I think it's important to note that while London is still MSY's largest single European destination, it makes up a smaller portion of total traffic to Europe than most other cities. I'll be interested to see how BNA compares in the winter when neither has competition to Europe. AUS is a whole other story. $600 roundtrip nonstop fares have been very common even on BA with Norwegian in town. While they certainly are a large growing market, those fares make a huge difference.

And while I'd like to see Condor succeed and grow, FRA is not as big of a market from MSY as it is from a lot of cities. In my experience connecting itineraries on DE haven't been cheap enough to choose them over another carrier offering a one stop, especially given their 2 weekly schedule. I think someone like EI, FI, WW, or DY who can offer either very cheap nonstop or connecting fares could stimulate a huge amount of traffic. I was hoping that adding MAN would bring in some cheaper connecting options as well as a higher total frequency. If I'm traveling for business, I might be able to add a day or two to the trip, but probably not more than that and I'd feel better relying on them knowing that if something gets canceled they have more ways to reroute pax.
 
NolaMD88fan
Posts: 1392
Joined: Wed Oct 01, 2014 4:07 am

Re: The MSY Thread - 2018

Sun Sep 16, 2018 7:19 pm

Here's how the other BA non-hub 788/789 routes did...the BNA flight was 82% full, SJC was 81.7% full, and BWI was 90.2% full. AUS was a 744 market this Summer and was 83.8% full in July. MSY was 84.2% full in July.
 
User avatar
LAX772LR
Posts: 12496
Joined: Sun Nov 09, 2014 11:06 pm

Re: The MSY Thread - 2018

Sun Sep 16, 2018 7:28 pm

msycajun wrote:
AUS is a whole other story. $600 roundtrip nonstop fares have been very common even on BA with Norwegian in town. While they certainly are a large growing market, those fares make a huge difference.

Sure, but DU/DI didn't come into AUS until nearly 4yrs into that operation's history.... it experienced explosive growth far before then:
going daily in only its 2nd month, and getting upgauged to a 4class 77E (then 789) within 17 months.



Granted, it's a larger and richer metro, I get it; and we've also had the RR debacle working against us in terms of BA's fleet availability. So there's that.


msycajun wrote:
DE haven't been cheap

And they've been much more full than last year... which continues to confound me as to why they haven't publicly scheduled for next year.
I myself, suspect a more prosaic motive... ~Thranduil
 
NolaMD88fan
Posts: 1392
Joined: Wed Oct 01, 2014 4:07 am

Re: The MSY Thread - 2018

Sun Sep 16, 2018 7:44 pm

DE is very frustrating. The load factor from May through the end of July was 87.1%. That should be a profitable route for them.
 
User avatar
LAX772LR
Posts: 12496
Joined: Sun Nov 09, 2014 11:06 pm

Re: The MSY Thread - 2018

Sun Sep 16, 2018 7:50 pm

NolaMD88fan wrote:
DE is very frustrating. The load factor from May through the end of July was 87.1%. That should be a profitable route for them.

Barring the likes of SEA/LAS/MCO, what are the loads like on DE's other comparative US routes?
I myself, suspect a more prosaic motive... ~Thranduil
 
User avatar
FA9295
Posts: 1770
Joined: Thu Feb 25, 2016 7:44 pm

Re: The MSY Thread - 2018

Sun Sep 16, 2018 8:21 pm

LAX772LR wrote:
NolaMD88fan wrote:
DE is very frustrating. The load factor from May through the end of July was 87.1%. That should be a profitable route for them.

Barring the likes of SEA/LAS/MCO, what are the loads like on DE's other comparative US routes?

Similarly, the LF for DE's PDX-FRA flight has always been +90%, and they still keep on with the low frequency. My guess would be that there's only a limited amount of planes to go around on each of their routes/flights...
 
User avatar
LAX772LR
Posts: 12496
Joined: Sun Nov 09, 2014 11:06 pm

Re: The MSY Thread - 2018

Sun Sep 16, 2018 8:27 pm

FA9295 wrote:
LAX772LR wrote:
Barring the likes of SEA/LAS/MCO, what are the loads like on DE's other comparative US routes?

Similarly, the LF for DE's PDX-FRA flight has always been +90%, and they still keep on with the low frequency. My guess would be that there's only a limited amount of planes to go around on each of their routes/flights...

That's no real surprise. DE's general longhaul business model is seasonal flights with 2-3x weekly service.

Exceptions are made in either markets with enormous O&D or markets where they have a connection partner (such as the three outlined above).

My confusion really isn't with that, it's with why they sometimes delay announcing commitments to markets that seem to be performing well for them on most (publicly visible) parameters; but they're rather quickly re-up on questionable/marginal markets. It's odd.
I myself, suspect a more prosaic motive... ~Thranduil
 
NolaMD88fan
Posts: 1392
Joined: Wed Oct 01, 2014 4:07 am

Re: The MSY Thread - 2018

Mon Sep 17, 2018 5:46 am

Here are some of the numbers I could calculate from airports that actually break out totals by airline.

AUS through the end of July had a 81.1% load factor. (Not bad considering Norwegian entered the market).

BWI through the end of June had a 71.2% load factor. (Competition from FI and WW).

PHX through the end of July had a 91.2% load factor. (Honestly, I'm still surprised it's only BA and DE flying to PHX).

Unfortunately, PIT does not break down stats by airline.

The 2x weekly frequency is fine for DE out of MSY (3x would be nice), but as LAX772LR alluded to, it's strange that MSY is not showing up for S19 yet.
 
User avatar
LAX772LR
Posts: 12496
Joined: Sun Nov 09, 2014 11:06 pm

Re: The MSY Thread - 2018

Mon Sep 17, 2018 6:15 am

NolaMD88fan wrote:
Honestly, I'm still surprised it's only BA and DE flying to PHX

Who else would have much interest though? Could see LH eventually returning and either coexisting or pushing DE off the route; but not sure why any of the SkyTeam carriers would fly there.

Maybe WK or Level?


NolaMD88fan wrote:
The 2x weekly frequency is fine for DE out of MSY (3x would be nice), but as LAX772LR alluded to, it's strange that MSY is not showing up for S19 yet.

Maybe that's the holdup... seeing if they can amass a ship for a 3rd frequency?
I myself, suspect a more prosaic motive... ~Thranduil
 
NolaMD88fan
Posts: 1392
Joined: Wed Oct 01, 2014 4:07 am

Re: The MSY Thread - 2018

Mon Sep 17, 2018 6:36 am

LAX772LR wrote:
NolaMD88fan wrote:
Honestly, I'm still surprised it's only BA and DE flying to PHX

Who else would have much interest though? Could see LH eventually returning and either coexisting or pushing DE off the route; but not sure why any of the SkyTeam carriers would fly there.

Maybe WK or Level?


NolaMD88fan wrote:
The 2x weekly frequency is fine for DE out of MSY (3x would be nice), but as LAX772LR alluded to, it's strange that MSY is not showing up for S19 yet.

Maybe that's the holdup... seeing if they can amass a ship for a 3rd frequency?


Level seems like a good fit for PHX. Just kind of surprised one of the low cost carriers never started up there.

Back to MSY, it would be fantastic if DE went to 3x weekly, but first we have to see if they are even returning next Summer.
 
NolaMD88fan
Posts: 1392
Joined: Wed Oct 01, 2014 4:07 am

Re: The MSY Thread - 2018

Mon Sep 17, 2018 7:00 am

Haven't seen this posted anywhere yet, but Vacation Express will be dropping CUN. They are keeping PUJ 2x weekly and adding MBJ 1x weekly for the Summer 2019 season. Not surprised CUN was dropped. 4 carriers was way too much capacity to CUN. https://www.vacationexpress.com/flight-schedule/
 
SNN707
Posts: 111
Joined: Thu May 10, 2018 11:32 pm

Re: The MSY Thread - 2018

Mon Sep 17, 2018 12:48 pm

NolaMD88fan wrote:
LAX772LR wrote:
NolaMD88fan wrote:
Honestly, I'm still surprised it's only BA and DE flying to PHX

Who else would have much interest though? Could see LH eventually returning and either coexisting or pushing DE off the route; but not sure why any of the SkyTeam carriers would fly there.

Maybe WK or Level?


NolaMD88fan wrote:
The 2x weekly frequency is fine for DE out of MSY (3x would be nice), but as LAX772LR alluded to, it's strange that MSY is not showing up for S19 yet.

Maybe that's the holdup... seeing if they can amass a ship for a 3rd frequency?


Level seems like a good fit for PHX. Just kind of surprised one of the low cost carriers never started up there.

Back to MSY, it would be fantastic if DE went to 3x weekly, but first we have to see if they are even returning next Summer.


While DE 3x would be great, I really would like to see them do a full season starting with Jazzfest and ending mid October in order to get the German Oktoberfest season in (where you begin with Oktoberfest and fly back in early Oct. European "Indian Summer" weather and May can be quite pleasant and room rates very reasonable.

Again, just a personal wish. They have the data and I'm sure that if they could get good yields they would do it. I think DE in year one did May and it wasnt too good - but it was a brand new service and no one knew about DE like they do now.

(What I really would like to know is DEs demographic out of MSY. Mostly families vs adult groups. With no kids, school calendars become irrelevant)
 
SunsetLimited
Posts: 854
Joined: Thu Oct 02, 2014 6:20 pm

Re: The MSY Thread - 2018

Mon Sep 17, 2018 1:03 pm

The DE flight yesterday inbound had 239 on board. Outbound it was roughly 190. These are pretty solid numbers for mid September, historically the slowest month for New Orleans tourism. Also it should be noted that DE is carrying a lot of cargo this year, something they did not even attempt last year. My personal opinion is that they will be back next year on a similar schedule. It's clear that the fares they offer have resonated well with the local passengers here and it's encouraging to see just how full the inbound flights are with German tourists.
Spread hope like fire.
 
msyflyer
Posts: 97
Joined: Tue Jan 05, 2016 2:04 pm

Re: The MSY Thread - 2018

Mon Sep 17, 2018 2:13 pm

NolaMD88fan wrote:
Here's how the other BA non-hub 788/789 routes did...the BNA flight was 82% full, SJC was 81.7% full, and BWI was 90.2% full. AUS was a 744 market this Summer and was 83.8% full in July. MSY was 84.2% full in July.


My question is what kind of prices is BA asking on the BNA route? I'd bet it's much cheaper than MSY. (Yes, I know it's a little closr ~ 1 hour 35 mins closer)
 
Nola
Posts: 337
Joined: Thu May 29, 2014 1:40 am

Re: The MSY Thread - 2018

Mon Sep 17, 2018 4:28 pm

SunsetLimited wrote:
The DE flight yesterday inbound had 239 on board. Outbound it was roughly 190. These are pretty solid numbers for mid September, historically the slowest month for New Orleans tourism. Also it should be noted that DE is carrying a lot of cargo this year, something they did not even attempt last year. My personal opinion is that they will be back next year on a similar schedule. It's clear that the fares they offer have resonated well with the local passengers here and it's encouraging to see just how full the inbound flights are with German tourists.


July (except for Essence Festival) and August (even with Decadence, which sometimes gets rained out) are actually the slowest months for New Orleans tourism. September sees a slight rebound, particularly in the second half of the month, and then October explodes. In the old days, the drop off was for the whole summer, but now it more closely follows hurricane season. That may not be completely reflected in the airport figures, but it is very clear in the hotel occupancy and rate figures.
 
msycajun
Posts: 1064
Joined: Thu Jun 16, 2016 4:13 am

Re: The MSY Thread - 2018

Mon Sep 17, 2018 5:42 pm

NolaMD88fan wrote:
Haven't seen this posted anywhere yet, but Vacation Express will be dropping CUN. They are keeping PUJ 2x weekly and adding MBJ 1x weekly for the Summer 2019 season. Not surprised CUN was dropped. 4 carriers was way too much capacity to CUN. https://www.vacationexpress.com/flight-schedule/

Good to see MBJ coming back. Would be nice to see scheduled service on these routes and a non-Saturday CUN option. Something like Wed-sat PUJ, thu-sun CUN, and mon-fri MBJ would be a nice lineup. F9 has been adding a lot of routes to those destinations, but NK would be even better given their connecting opportunities.
 
DJSNOLA
Posts: 649
Joined: Tue Apr 11, 2017 3:40 pm

Re: The MSY Thread - 2018

Mon Sep 17, 2018 8:04 pm

NolaMD88fan wrote:
Haven't seen this posted anywhere yet, but Vacation Express will be dropping CUN. They are keeping PUJ 2x weekly and adding MBJ 1x weekly for the Summer 2019 season. Not surprised CUN was dropped. 4 carriers was way too much capacity to CUN. https://www.vacationexpress.com/flight-schedule/


cancun is starting to get real negative publicity with crime thats for sure ... this was first year i heard plenty of people discussing it
 
User avatar
LAX772LR
Posts: 12496
Joined: Sun Nov 09, 2014 11:06 pm

Re: The MSY Thread - 2018

Tue Sep 18, 2018 6:41 am

msyflyer wrote:
NolaMD88fan wrote:
Here's how the other BA non-hub 788/789 routes did...the BNA flight was 82% full, SJC was 81.7% full, and BWI was 90.2% full. AUS was a 744 market this Summer and was 83.8% full in July. MSY was 84.2% full in July.

My question is what kind of prices is BA asking on the BNA route? I'd bet it's much cheaper than MSY. (Yes, I know it's a little closr ~ 1 hour 35 mins closer)

(NOTE: this is an absolutely flawed way to attempt to gauge fares, but it's all we publicly have in the absence of specific data)

That said, I picked some random dates in October, and plugged for both on the nonstop. What I found, is that BNA Y typically prices at $100-140 higher price than MSY for those same dates, however MSY J typically prices between $1,000 and 1,200 more for those same dates.

But of course, those are just advertised prices-- they don't reflect if anyone's actually paying them nor what percentage of paid fares they constitute.
I myself, suspect a more prosaic motive... ~Thranduil
 
User avatar
eta unknown
Posts: 2407
Joined: Wed Jun 13, 2001 5:03 am

Re: The MSY Thread - 2018

Tue Sep 18, 2018 11:24 am

Well at least we agree your fare gauging is flawed. If you're going to attempt something like this at least pick dates far off in the future, preferably in low season, not random dates within a month. Oh and but the way, the BNE/MSY business pricing is reverse in Feb 2019.
 
Bluegrass60
Posts: 348
Joined: Wed Feb 21, 2018 1:15 am

Re: The MSY Thread - 2018

Tue Sep 18, 2018 12:11 pm

Anyone have info on the make-up of MSY annual 12M pax number? My assumptions:
* 99% O&D as not aware of much connecting opportunity at MSY
* Would think leisure/tourism is a large percentage...70-80%?
* Balance 20-30% is business related?

Appreciate your feedback.
 
SNN707
Posts: 111
Joined: Thu May 10, 2018 11:32 pm

Re: The MSY Thread - 2018

Tue Sep 18, 2018 3:01 pm

We are just about T-minus 5 months out from the opening of the MSY North Terminal. I do have some concerns about making the 19FEB19 opening, but things do get done in construction fast.

That being said, I like many, have landside concerns about airport access. With the flyovers years away, Bainbridge will be very important for the shuttles from the south garages. Yet the left turn bay off of Vets can hold no more than 2 full size buses at best. If that bay traffic overflows into westbound Vets, then Vets becomes 1 lane for thru traffic. I see this as being even more significant than the Loyola-Vets intersection.

In hindsight, I think it will be regretted that a dedicated extra lane for shuttles wasnt built between Bainbridge and the Access Road to facilitate the buses.

Airside, I talked to someone that said DL wants more gates than they received at the NT. I think the question begs, does the NT have enough gates at 35 (or 34) to satisfy all of the airlines growth plans? And are 2 concurrent WB intl gates enough, much less 5 total?

I know traffic has been discussed ad nauseum about the NT, but I wanted to point out that specific situation. I think overall the NT will be a great thing, but the overall benefits may not be seen until the flyovers are done.
 
Nola
Posts: 337
Joined: Thu May 29, 2014 1:40 am

Re: The MSY Thread - 2018

Tue Sep 18, 2018 3:29 pm

SNN707 wrote:
We are just about T-minus 5 months out from the opening of the MSY North Terminal. I do have some concerns about making the 19FEB19 opening, but things do get done in construction fast.

That being said, I like many, have landside concerns about airport access. With the flyovers years away, Bainbridge will be very important for the shuttles from the south garages. Yet the left turn bay off of Vets can hold no more than 2 full size buses at best. If that bay traffic overflows into westbound Vets, then Vets becomes 1 lane for thru traffic. I see this as being even more significant than the Loyola-Vets intersection.

In hindsight, I think it will be regretted that a dedicated extra lane for shuttles wasnt built between Bainbridge and the Access Road to facilitate the buses.

Airside, I talked to someone that said DL wants more gates than they received at the NT. I think the question begs, does the NT have enough gates at 35 (or 34) to satisfy all of the airlines growth plans? And are 2 concurrent WB intl gates enough, much less 5 total?

I know traffic has been discussed ad nauseum about the NT, but I wanted to point out that specific situation. I think overall the NT will be a great thing, but the overall benefits may not be seen until the flyovers are done.


how many gates did DL receive? how many do they want?
 
SunsetLimited
Posts: 854
Joined: Thu Oct 02, 2014 6:20 pm

Re: The MSY Thread - 2018

Tue Sep 18, 2018 3:30 pm

For what it’s worth, I’ve heard from several sources recently (past week) that the terminal opening is going to get pushed back to May at the earliest. I guess we’ll see. The airlines are still being told a 2/20 move in day but that might change soon.

DL will be getting 5 gates and they’ll likely have access to the CUTE gates on A if they need them. Unless they are planning a large expansion I think 5 dedicated plus common use can probably hold them over. Then again, I don’t know what DL is planning.

I personally think the terminal was under built in terms of gates. Would have liked to have seen at least five more, from the get go. Hopefully, the next expansion is being planned as I type this.
Spread hope like fire.
 
msycajun
Posts: 1064
Joined: Thu Jun 16, 2016 4:13 am

Re: The MSY Thread - 2018

Tue Sep 18, 2018 3:54 pm

Unfortunately given the lack of maintenance and congestion at the south terminal, it would probably be best to get the north terminal open ASAP despite the traffic issues.

I know they wanted to move everything at once, but maybe a phased move wouldn't be a bad idea at this point. That would take some pressure off the ST parking and pickup/dropoff areas, without the massive increase in traffic around the NT. That would give some extra time for the second garage to be built at the NT plus the second phase of the access road (which includes demolishing the fire station and adding more turning lanes). And if they are planning on adding more gates, it would be better to do that before the thing is completely full - I'm sure any add-on would require at least a gate or two being blocked, not to mention extra construction traffic and parking needs.

I know a few people said a full extension isn't possible, but I'd love to see at least a small 2-3 gate extension to the east of the main building. That could potentially include more international, lounge, baggage claim, office etc. facilities. And it would be nice to have more gates available near the DL/UA lounges should they want them (or want to add international flying).
 
msycajun
Posts: 1064
Joined: Thu Jun 16, 2016 4:13 am

Re: The MSY Thread - 2018

Tue Sep 18, 2018 3:55 pm

Side note - there is another board meeting on Thursday, so we may find out more soon.
 
msyflyer
Posts: 97
Joined: Tue Jan 05, 2016 2:04 pm

Re: The MSY Thread - 2018

Tue Sep 18, 2018 4:11 pm

msycajun wrote:
Side note - there is another board meeting on Thursday, so we may find out more soon.


Normally scheduled or no?
 
SNN707
Posts: 111
Joined: Thu May 10, 2018 11:32 pm

Re: The MSY Thread - 2018

Tue Sep 18, 2018 4:16 pm

The firehouse thing is (SMH). Once the NT is open for business, you cannot do a major road project affecting both NB and SB Loyola without major implications. You'd have to close a lane off each way, meaning only midnight-6am work.

Also to tear it down would require a new one to move to and I don't think one is under construction.

I don't mind the shuttle, but if takes 45min from pulling into the ST parking spot to the NT check in counter, thats not gonna work. Hence my post on the dedicated lanes from the access road to Bainbridge. If the opening is May, there is plenty of time to do that.
 
msycajun
Posts: 1064
Joined: Thu Jun 16, 2016 4:13 am

Re: The MSY Thread - 2018

Tue Sep 18, 2018 4:53 pm

SNN707 wrote:
The firehouse thing is (SMH). Once the NT is open for business, you cannot do a major road project affecting both NB and SB Loyola without major implications. You'd have to close a lane off each way, meaning only midnight-6am work.

Also to tear it down would require a new one to move to and I don't think one is under construction.

I don't mind the shuttle, but if takes 45min from pulling into the ST parking spot to the NT check in counter, thats not gonna work. Hence my post on the dedicated lanes from the access road to Bainbridge. If the opening is May, there is plenty of time to do that.


I agree, but that work is LA DOTD stuff and it only recently went out for bid, so it's definitely happening, but will certainly be ongoing at least through next spring. I doubt they made the effort to require night work. Replacement of the fire station is another issue, and while I know there's a plan, I'm not sure who exactly is responsible for it - might be that Kenner is taking care of that.
 
NolaMD88fan
Posts: 1392
Joined: Wed Oct 01, 2014 4:07 am

Re: The MSY Thread - 2018

Tue Sep 18, 2018 5:08 pm

June 2018 domestic and March 2018 international load factors and passenger numbers by route.

International load factor in March was 79.9%. Passenger traffic grew by 68.8% and seat count grew by 76.9% resulting in a -3.8% decline in load factor. AC saw a 9.4% increase in seat count and a 1.7% increase in pax result in a -6.3% decline in load factor. BA saw a 781.1% increase in seat count and a 979.3% increase in pax result in a 14.8% increase in load factor. CM saw a 33.9% increase in seat count and a 31.9% increase in pax result in a -1.1% decline in load factor. DL saw a 41.1% increase in seat count and a 22.2% increase in pax result in a -10.4% decline in load factor.

March International airline seat count(%change), pax count(%change), and load factor(change)

Airline............Seats.............................Pax..........................LF
AC................9,258(+9.4%)................7,699(+1.7%).........83.2%(-6.3%)
BA................9,428(+781.1%)............7,609(+979.3%).....80.7%(+14.8%)
CM...............4,484(+33.9%)..............3,398(+31.9%).......75.8%(-1.1%)
DL................1,490(+41.1%)..............1,007(+22.2%).......67.6%(-10.4%)

On the domestic side, airport-wide seat count grew by 4.6% and pax traffic grew by 5.6% resulting in a 0.8% increase in load factors to 85.0%. F9's MSY-DEN route had the best loads of the month at 95.1%. NK's MSY-ACY route had the worst loads of the month at 55.5%. Year to date, the UA's MSY-DEN route had the best load factor at 93.1%, and NK's MSY-ACY had the worst load factor at 58.0%.

June Domestic airline seat count(% change), pax count(%change), and load factor(change):

Airline............Seats.............................Pax..........................LF
AS................19,544(+88.6%)...........17,790(+83.3%).......91.0%(-2.6%)
AA...............198,937(+3.9%)...........165,105(+2.6%)........83.0%(-1.0%)
B6................44,174(+1.9%)..............36,596(+3.9%)........82.9%(+1.6%)
DL...............210,291(-1.9%)............182,955(+1.3%)........87.0%(+2.7%)
F9................32,720(+73.1%)............29,630(+70.6%)......90.6%(-1.3%)
G4................14,110(-42.5%).............11,791(-36.9%).......83.6%(+7.4%)
NK..............154,045(+44.5%).........127,356(+44.8%)......82.7%(+0.1%)
UA..............147,635(-8.1%)............132,456(-7.5%).........89.7%(+0.6%)
WN.............496,499(+2.7%)............417,157(+2.6%).......84.0%(0.0%)

Domestic
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1J_XIgbK86N2kPFUiFgeyVdPNanrB2qatLCIShRtCRLs/edit?usp=sharing

International
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1B6bS8RNmaygLVtQ18N7aIAziuHLr6W1g1XTgve_M-Lg/edit?usp=sharing
 
SNN707
Posts: 111
Joined: Thu May 10, 2018 11:32 pm

Re: The MSY Thread - 2018

Tue Sep 18, 2018 5:53 pm

msycajun wrote:
Unfortunately given the lack of maintenance and congestion at the south terminal, it would probably be best to get the north terminal open ASAP despite the traffic issues.

I know they wanted to move everything at once, but maybe a phased move wouldn't be a bad idea at this point. That would take some pressure off the ST parking and pickup/dropoff areas, without the massive increase in traffic around the NT. That would give some extra time for the second garage to be built at the NT plus the second phase of the access road (which includes demolishing the fire station and adding more turning lanes). And if they are planning on adding more gates, it would be better to do that before the thing is completely full - I'm sure any add-on would require at least a gate or two being blocked, not to mention extra construction traffic and parking needs.

I know a few people said a full extension isn't possible, but I'd love to see at least a small 2-3 gate extension to the east of the main building. That could potentially include more international, lounge, baggage claim, office etc. facilities. And it would be nice to have more gates available near the DL/UA lounges should they want them (or want to add international flying).


I agree with all this. If there was a temporary split operation, I think WN would be best continuing in B. No lounge, few interline connections....next would be DL in D but they are way more business oriented. Can't see them doing that. WN (if the price is right) may. Demolition of A and C could go on in that case.

Frankly I think they would delay the whole thing rather than do a split op.
 
Nola
Posts: 337
Joined: Thu May 29, 2014 1:40 am

Re: The MSY Thread - 2018

Tue Sep 18, 2018 7:08 pm

SunsetLimited wrote:
For what it’s worth, I’ve heard from several sources recently (past week) that the terminal opening is going to get pushed back to May at the earliest. I guess we’ll see. The airlines are still being told a 2/20 move in day but that might change soon.

DL will be getting 5 gates and they’ll likely have access to the CUTE gates on A if they need them. Unless they are planning a large expansion I think 5 dedicated plus common use can probably hold them over. Then again, I don’t know what DL is planning.

I personally think the terminal was under built in terms of gates. Would have liked to have seen at least five more, from the get go. Hopefully, the next expansion is being planned as I type this.


Doesn't DL have six gates now and also two CUTE gates for RON?
 
msycajun
Posts: 1064
Joined: Thu Jun 16, 2016 4:13 am

Re: The MSY Thread - 2018

Tue Sep 18, 2018 8:56 pm

Nola wrote:
SunsetLimited wrote:
For what it’s worth, I’ve heard from several sources recently (past week) that the terminal opening is going to get pushed back to May at the earliest. I guess we’ll see. The airlines are still being told a 2/20 move in day but that might change soon.

DL will be getting 5 gates and they’ll likely have access to the CUTE gates on A if they need them. Unless they are planning a large expansion I think 5 dedicated plus common use can probably hold them over. Then again, I don’t know what DL is planning.

I personally think the terminal was under built in terms of gates. Would have liked to have seen at least five more, from the get go. Hopefully, the next expansion is being planned as I type this.


Doesn't DL have six gates now and also two CUTE gates for RON?

Last I heard only 5 exclusively for DL, 4 for UA, 5 or 6 for AA and 6 or 7 for WN.
 
User avatar
LAX772LR
Posts: 12496
Joined: Sun Nov 09, 2014 11:06 pm

Re: The MSY Thread - 2018

Tue Sep 18, 2018 11:39 pm

eta unknown wrote:
Well at least we agree your fare gauging is flawed. If you're going to attempt something like this at least pick dates far off in the future, preferably in low season, not random dates within a month.

Not really sure what your point in writing this is.
As clearly stated, I'm well aware of the flaws inherent to such an approach.


Bluegrass60 wrote:
Anyone have info on the make-up of MSY annual 12M pax number? My assumptions:
* 99% O&D as not aware of much connecting opportunity at MSY

MSY isn't anywhere near 99% O&D, as WN, NK, (and to a far lesser extent) AA/BA and CM, all offer scheduled connection opportunities through it. Granted, nothing profound, but definitely available.

  • AA/BA use BA224 (MSY-LHR) as an overflow option for DFW-LON (which AA offers as a 1stop option on its site yearround) and on MIA-LON as well (though not always as readily available online). Easy to spot connection tags for either.
  • WN will readily connect California, Phoenix and Vegas to various parts of Florida over MSY, alongside its Texas and BNA gateways.
  • CM will connect IAH over MSY, and sometimes EWR and IAD, though the latter don't appear as often on their site.

That said, the airport is indeed overwhelmingly O&D, but not to the extent proffered above.



SNN707 wrote:
I think the question begs, does the NT have enough gates at 35 (or 34) to satisfy all of the airlines growth plans?

Been a lot of people's question since the get-go.
I myself, suspect a more prosaic motive... ~Thranduil
 
User avatar
eta unknown
Posts: 2407
Joined: Wed Jun 13, 2001 5:03 am

Re: The MSY Thread - 2018

Wed Sep 19, 2018 2:11 am

LAX772LR wrote:
eta unknown wrote:
Well at least we agree your fare gauging is flawed. If you're going to attempt something like this at least pick dates far off in the future, preferably in low season, not random dates within a month.

Not really sure what your point in writing this is.
As clearly stated, I'm well aware of the flaws inherent to such an approach..


Then that would serve as notice to review and decipher what was written there, wouldn't it.

On another note, I've noticed lately that your replies have become quite condescending to other posters, yet you become highly defensive it someone calls you out on what you've written- a case of can dish it out, but can't take it. However, I'm sure you're a nice person, so let's hope going forward we'll be fine.
 
User avatar
LAX772LR
Posts: 12496
Joined: Sun Nov 09, 2014 11:06 pm

Re: The MSY Thread - 2018

Wed Sep 19, 2018 2:28 am

eta unknown wrote:
LAX772LR wrote:
eta unknown wrote:
Well at least we agree your fare gauging is flawed. If you're going to attempt something like this at least pick dates far off in the future, preferably in low season, not random dates within a month.

Not really sure what your point in writing this is.
As clearly stated, I'm well aware of the flaws inherent to such an approach..

Then that would serve as notice to review and decipher what was written there, wouldn't it.

On another note, I've noticed lately that your replies have become quite condescending to other posters, yet you become highly defensive it someone calls you out on what you've written- a case of can dish it out, but can't take it. However, I'm sure you're a nice person, so let's hope going forward we'll be fine.

Repeating what I preemptively prefaced and admonished my own self and others about-- constitutes "calling me out?"
That's borderline delusional dude. ;)
I myself, suspect a more prosaic motive... ~Thranduil
 
NolaMD88fan
Posts: 1392
Joined: Wed Oct 01, 2014 4:07 am

Re: The MSY Thread - 2018

Wed Sep 19, 2018 2:39 am

Some tidbits pulled out from the transtats database.

NK in terms of capacity was the 4th largest carrier at MSY surpassing UA. Never thought I'd see that happen so quickly. Also, NK was able to absorb all of the added year over year capacity as noted by a steady load factor. ACY and CMH both struggled, and it looks like they are not returning next year. Not a surprise given the less than 60% load factors.

UA and DL have really high station-wide load factors. In fact, UA had 90+% load factors to DEN, EWR, and IAD. Wow! I'm sure it was difficult for anyone flying standby or trying for an upgrade to have much success.

CM added significant capacity by increasing gauge to the 73G from the E190, and load factors were little changed. Good to see that extra capacity being absorbed.
 
User avatar
LAX772LR
Posts: 12496
Joined: Sun Nov 09, 2014 11:06 pm

Re: The MSY Thread - 2018

Wed Sep 19, 2018 2:47 am

NolaMD88fan wrote:
NK in terms of capacity was the 4th largest carrier at MSY surpassing UA.

Mainline, based on the numbers posted earlier, but still not UA/UAX... though writing seems to be on the wall.

Amazing!


NolaMD88fan wrote:
Never thought I'd see that happen so quickly.

And just think of how quickly that gulf could expand, if/when NK begins to offer more cnnx via MSY, or even time flights specifically for such. :eek:

I just wonder if enplanement costs are/will be competitive for them to do so?
I myself, suspect a more prosaic motive... ~Thranduil
 
SNN707
Posts: 111
Joined: Thu May 10, 2018 11:32 pm

Re: The MSY Thread - 2018

Wed Sep 19, 2018 10:43 am

I still can't get all of this huge pax growth out of my head without thinking about in 5 years, the NT looking like a Japanese subway at rush hour (well not quite but you get the idea).

And NK with its biz model taking over ST-D and really making a go at a focus/minihub type op. NKs pax don't really expect a J cabin experience (other than BFS) nor lounges or terminal amenities if the fare is right. Not that D as it is a 3rd world experience as its pretty new and nice. The only limiting factor is FIS and that would need to be figured out.

But a split op could offer breathing room at some point until a new NT-west could be financed and the flyovers completed. In fact maybe NT-west could a lower cost per SF/gate LCC terminal. Maybe like a 15 gate "bridge" structure that would connect to an even further west full service West Terminal in 20-25 years.

Its not really a pie in the sky idea when you look at these growth rates. Sooner or later more gates will be needed and they have to go somewhere. The good news is we at least have a short term solution in the ST to absorb extra capacity.
 
Bluegrass60
Posts: 348
Joined: Wed Feb 21, 2018 1:15 am

Re: The MSY Thread - 2018

Wed Sep 19, 2018 2:04 pm

LAX772LR wrote:
eta unknown wrote:
Well at least we agree your fare gauging is flawed. If you're going to attempt something like this at least pick dates far off in the future, preferably in low season, not random dates within a month.

Not really sure what your point in writing this is.
As clearly stated, I'm well aware of the flaws inherent to such an approach.


Bluegrass60 wrote:
Anyone have info on the make-up of MSY annual 12M pax number? My assumptions:
* 99% O&D as not aware of much connecting opportunity at MSY

MSY isn't anywhere near 99% O&D, as WN, NK, (and to a far lesser extent) AA/BA and CM, all offer scheduled connection opportunities through it. Granted, nothing profound, but definitely available.

  • AA/BA use BA224 (MSY-LHR) as an overflow option for DFW-LON (which AA offers as a 1stop option on its site yearround) and on MIA-LON as well (though not always as readily available online). Easy to spot connection tags for either.
  • WN will readily connect California, Phoenix and Vegas to various parts of Florida over MSY, alongside its Texas and BNA gateways.
  • CM will connect IAH over MSY, and sometimes EWR and IAD, though the latter don't appear as often on their site.

That said, the airport is indeed overwhelmingly O&D, but not to the extent proffered above.


"Thanks. Am reviewing BNA and MSY annual PAX numbers and trying to determine O&D Catchment/O&D Tourism/CX splits. My guesstimate so far:

BNA 14.1M Total 2017
6.1M O&D Catchment - based on CSA population
2M O&D Tourism
6M CX.

MSY 12M Total 2017
4.6M O&D Catchment - based on CSA population
7M O&D Tourism
.5M CX.



SNN707 wrote:
I think the question begs, does the NT have enough gates at 35 (or 34) to satisfy all of the airlines growth plans?

Been a lot of people's question since the get-go.
 
msycajun
Posts: 1064
Joined: Thu Jun 16, 2016 4:13 am

Re: The MSY Thread - 2018

Wed Sep 19, 2018 3:43 pm

Lots of things on the board agenda for tomorrow. Changes to signatory and non-signatory carrier leases, concessions agreements, and another change order for the NT. Maybe we'll find out soon if the move-in date is changing.
 
SNN707
Posts: 111
Joined: Thu May 10, 2018 11:32 pm

Re: The MSY Thread - 2018

Wed Sep 19, 2018 4:05 pm

msycajun wrote:
Lots of things on the board agenda for tomorrow. Changes to signatory and non-signatory carrier leases, concessions agreements, and another change order for the NT. Maybe we'll find out soon if the move-in date is changing.


JW, are the board minutes for a current meeting not released until the next meeting?

I agree, this is a big meeting. If there is any opening delay, the airlines and other interested parties need to know this fairly soon for planning/hiring purposes. At least it won't be like BER

Who is online

Popular Searches On Airliners.net

Top Photos of Last:   24 Hours  •  48 Hours  •  7 Days  •  30 Days  •  180 Days  •  365 Days  •  All Time

Military Aircraft Every type from fighters to helicopters from air forces around the globe

Classic Airliners Props and jets from the good old days

Flight Decks Views from inside the cockpit

Aircraft Cabins Passenger cabin shots showing seat arrangements as well as cargo aircraft interior

Cargo Aircraft Pictures of great freighter aircraft

Government Aircraft Aircraft flying government officials

Helicopters Our large helicopter section. Both military and civil versions

Blimps / Airships Everything from the Goodyear blimp to the Zeppelin

Night Photos Beautiful shots taken while the sun is below the horizon

Accidents Accident, incident and crash related photos

Air to Air Photos taken by airborne photographers of airborne aircraft

Special Paint Schemes Aircraft painted in beautiful and original liveries

Airport Overviews Airport overviews from the air or ground

Tails and Winglets Tail and Winglet closeups with beautiful airline logos