braniff2hav
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Re: The MSY Thread - 2018

Sun Dec 23, 2018 4:57 am

LAX772LR wrote:
msycajun wrote:
LAX772LR wrote:
they already fly to all of their hubs, offer international service, and serve all but two of their focus cities

At least a daily SEA and BOS would be nice - they are technically hubs. They could also use a flagship international route or two...

Well, scratch "international" off that list... they just dropped CUN.

Not really surprising though. :(



Where have they announced CUN being dropped? Did I miss something?
 
NolaMD88fan
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Re: The MSY Thread - 2018

Sun Dec 23, 2018 5:29 am

It drops off the schedule after April 20th. Not shocked. Other than June and July, the loads were horrible. WN starting up the route and doing quite well on it likely contributed.
 
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LAX772LR
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Re: The MSY Thread - 2018

Sun Dec 23, 2018 5:34 am

braniff2hav wrote:
Did I miss something?

...other than the fact that DL rarely makes an announcement about dropping a route? :lol:
I myself, suspect a more prosaic motive... ~Thranduil
 
NolaMD88fan
Posts: 1392
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Re: The MSY Thread - 2018

Mon Dec 24, 2018 4:31 am

Decided to see how our TATL routes compared to all other TATL routes from peer FAA defined medium hub airports through June. I plan on updating the spreadsheet as frequently as I can when the data becomes available. I wish there was a way to get fare data and yields because we all know that a full flight does not necessarily mean a profitable flight. WW and possibly DY/DI being a case in point.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1pUim6zLou2yi0OrZXam_VbjP4piD9X6G1bGOSez4ODs/edit?usp=sharing

Here are the monthly and year to date highlights:

January-
MSY-LHR ranked 4th out of 14 routes in pax count falling between AA's RDU-LHR and BA's SJC-LHR routes.
MSY-LHR ranked 9th out of 14 routes for load factor falling between WW's PIT-KEF and BA's SJC-LHR routes.

February-
MSY-LHR ranked 5th out of 14 routes in pax count falling
between BA's SJC-LHR and DL's CVG-CDG routes.
MSY-LHR ranked 7th out of 14 routes for load factor falling between DL's RDU-CDG and CVG-CDG routes.

March-
MSY-LHR ranked 6th out of 19 routes in pax count falling between BA's SJC-LHR and DL's RDU-CDG routes.
MSY-LHR ranked 8th out of 19 routes for load factor falling between DL's RDU-CDG and CVG-CDG routes.

April-
MSY-LHR ranked 8th out of 19 routes in pax count falling between BA's SJC-LHR and EI's BDL-DUB routes.
MSY-LHR ranked 2nd out of 19 routes for load factor falling between IB's OAK-BCN and DI's AUS-LGW routes.

May-
MSY-LHR ranked 11th out of 35 routes in pax count falling between DI's AUS-LGW and LH's SJC-FRA routes.
MSY-FRA ranked 26th out of 35 routes in pax count falling between DL's IND-CDG and PIT-CDG routes.
MSY-LHR ranked 5th out of 35 routes for load factor falling between IB's OAK-BCN and WW's PIT-KEF routes.
MSY-FRA ranked 7th out of 35 routes for load factor falling between WW's PIT-KEF and DI's OAK-LGW routes.

June-
MSY-LHR ranked 16th out of 34 routes in pax count falling between DI's AUS-LGW and WW's PIT-KEF routes.
MSY-FRA ranked 30th out of 34 routes in pax count falling between DE's AUS-FRA and PIT-FRA routes.
MSY-FRA ranked 12th out of 34 routes for load factor falling between BA's AUS-LHR and WW's CVG-KEF routes.
MSY-LHR ranked 23rd out of 34 routes for load factor falling between LH's SJC-FRA and WW's PIT-KEF routes.

YTD-
MSY-LHR ranked 8th out of 36 routes in pax count falling between DY's OAK-BCN and EI's BDL-DUB routes.
MSY-FRA ranked 29th out of 36 roues in pax count falling between DE's ANC-FRA and PIT-FRA routes.
MSY-FRA ranked 2nd out of 36 routes for load factor falling between BA's BNA-LHR and DI's AUS-LGW routes.
MSY-LHR ranked 17th out of 36 routes for load factor falling between WW's PIT-KEF and DL's PIT-CDG routes.

Note: for routes flown all 6 months, MSY-LHR ranked 7th out of 13 routes for load factor falling between WW's PIT-KEF and DL's CVG-CDG routes.
 
msyflyer
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Re: The MSY Thread - 2018

Mon Dec 24, 2018 1:46 pm

LAX772LR wrote:
msycajun wrote:
LAX772LR wrote:
they already fly to all of their hubs, offer international service, and serve all but two of their focus cities

At least a daily SEA and BOS would be nice - they are technically hubs. They could also use a flagship international route or two...

Well, scratch "international" off that list... they just dropped CUN.

Not really surprising though. :(


Not surprising at all. WN crushed that route.
 
DJSNOLA
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Re: The MSY Thread - 2018

Wed Dec 26, 2018 4:22 pm

msyflyer wrote:
LAX772LR wrote:
msycajun wrote:
At least a daily SEA and BOS would be nice - they are technically hubs. They could also use a flagship international route or two...

Well, scratch "international" off that list... they just dropped CUN.

Not really surprising though. :(


Not surprising at all. WN crushed that route.



i would like to see southwest increase frequency on that route... they just make sense for that route or maybe spirit
Last edited by DJSNOLA on Wed Dec 26, 2018 4:33 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
SunsetLimited
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Re: The MSY Thread - 2018

Wed Dec 26, 2018 4:26 pm

One thing that hurts CUN from MSY now as opposed to twenty years ago when there was daily service on multiple airlines is the availability of year-round 4/5/7 night cruises that all stop at a Yucatán beach resort (Cozumel, generally).

Only large Gulf Coast port cities have that advantage.
Spread hope like fire.
 
DJSNOLA
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Re: The MSY Thread - 2018

Wed Dec 26, 2018 4:34 pm

SunsetLimited wrote:
One thing that hurts CUN from MSY now as opposed to twenty years ago when there was daily service on multiple airlines is the availability of year-round 4/5/7 night cruises that all stop at a Yucatán beach resort (Cozumel, generally).

Only large Gulf Coast port cities have that advantage.



never thought about that.. sure it has an effect
 
msycajun
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Re: The MSY Thread - 2018

Wed Dec 26, 2018 5:38 pm

Personally I don't see the appeal of a warm destination from MSY in the summer, but to each his own. As far as MSY originating leisure destinations, you'd think that CHS, YUL, PDX, and IAG/BUF would have more appeal in the summer months.

For those who need a beach, I'd like to see some scheduled service on MBJ/PUJ/NAS/FPO/SJU instead of just Vacation Express. WN probably has some spare capacity on Saturdays if NK isn't interested. The safety issues in CUN aren't helping, but it would be interesting to see how NK could do with say a Thursday/Sunday schedule. Not everyone wants a whole week on the beach and I'm sure NK has some seats to fill with connections in the summer months.

As for DL, I know they have frequent fliers who currently connect over taking the WN/NK/F9 nonstops to MCO, so maybe that's a good place to send the plane on Saturdays.
 
NolaMD88fan
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Re: The MSY Thread - 2018

Wed Dec 26, 2018 7:52 pm

The cruises definitely hurt the chances for sustaining Caribbean flights during the winter and spring months when cruise options peak. Typically much cheaper to hop on a cruise for a week than booking a flight+resort for a week.
 
DJSNOLA
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Re: The MSY Thread - 2018

Thu Dec 27, 2018 9:34 pm

msycajun wrote:
Personally I don't see the appeal of a warm destination from MSY in the summer, but to each his own. As far as MSY originating leisure destinations, you'd think that CHS, YUL, PDX, and IAG/BUF would have more appeal in the summer months.

For those who need a beach, I'd like to see some scheduled service on MBJ/PUJ/NAS/FPO/SJU instead of just Vacation Express. WN probably has some spare capacity on Saturdays if NK isn't interested. The safety issues in CUN aren't helping, but it would be interesting to see how NK could do with say a Thursday/Sunday schedule. Not everyone wants a whole week on the beach and I'm sure NK has some seats to fill with connections in the summer months.

As for DL, I know they have frequent fliers who currently connect over taking the WN/NK/F9 nonstops to MCO, so maybe that's a good place to send the plane on Saturdays.



thats my thing i dont want to go to the beacj for a whole week .. way too long. thursday to sunday is perfect for me and others.. and i absolutely hate cruises
 
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flyPIT
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Re: The MSY Thread - 2018

Fri Dec 28, 2018 11:29 pm

Is the new runway proposal from many years ago dead?
Image
FLYi
 
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LAX772LR
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Re: The MSY Thread - 2018

Sat Dec 29, 2018 4:19 am

flyPIT wrote:
Is the new runway proposal from many years ago dead?

No idea what the legal status of it currently is... the airport made it clear that the canted semi-parallel configuration above was their preferred option; but I'm not sure if it ever became an official selection.

That said: the funding, political will, and (most importantly) need for it, aren't currently there.
I myself, suspect a more prosaic motive... ~Thranduil
 
NolaMD88fan
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Re: The MSY Thread - 2018

Sat Dec 29, 2018 8:42 am

Here's a round-up of the lost, added, and announced service this year that I can remember. Overall, this was a fairly quiet year for route reductions, additions, and announcements.

Lost routes in 2018:

March: F9 ends PVD and ISP.

June: G4 ends SFB and PIE.

August: Vacation Express ends seasonal CUN.

Added routes in 2018:

February: DL starts seasonal SEA and BOS

March: WN starts seasonal SMF
NK starts seasonal CMH

April: WN starts seasonal SJC and CUN
NK starts seasonal ACY ( not returning)

Announced routes for 2019:

February: G4 adds SDF
NK adds AUS and DEN

May: NK adds seasonal PHL
Vacation Express adds seasonal MBJ

Here's to additional route announcements in 2019! :)
 
msycajun
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Re: The MSY Thread - 2018

Sat Dec 29, 2018 6:16 pm

flyPIT wrote:
Is the new runway proposal from many years ago dead?
Image


I think the third runway is dead for the foreseeable future. 2017 actually had fewer ops than 2004 when plans were being discussed. As technology and ATC improvements are made, that reduces the need even further. And if MSY does start to get seriously congested, there's room to move more private ops to NEW.

One thing they do need, according to what I've heard, is an extension of taxiway G to the end of runway 11. That would eliminate a lot of runway crossings once the north terminal is activated. Seems like it would be easy enough to do, not sure why that hasn't happened yet.
 
NolaMD88fan
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Re: The MSY Thread - 2018

Sun Dec 30, 2018 6:59 am

msycajun wrote:
One thing they do need, according to what I've heard, is an extension of taxiway G to the end of runway 11. That would eliminate a lot of runway crossings once the north terminal is activated. Seems like it would be easy enough to do, not sure why that hasn't happened yet.


Yup...this is a concern of the FAA guys locally. I believe the levee would need to relocated at the north end of RWY 11 to extend the taxiway due to proximity to the levee. At least that's what I've heard from the tower guys. Needless to say, any extension of taxiway G won't be happening for a while. Fortunately, MSY is well below capacity currently, so the increase in runway crossings shouldn't be seriously detrimental at this point to operational capacity. More of a safety concern than anything...especially in low visibility conditions.
 
msycajun
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Re: The MSY Thread - 2018

Sun Dec 30, 2018 7:43 am

NolaMD88fan wrote:
Here's a round-up of the lost, added, and announced service this year that I can remember. Overall, this was a fairly quiet year for route reductions, additions, and announcements.

Here's to additional route announcements in 2019! :)


Hard to beat 2017's adds, but 2018 saw a lot of upgauging and absorption of capacity that is leading to more flights in 2019. I'd also note WN to LGA as a new route in Nov 2018 as well as SY to MSP and BNA.

While less exciting than new routes, 2019 is going to see a lot of increased frequency. AA's 2nd and WN's 3rd LAX started recently. UA will be 3x to DEN and IAD (seasonally); AS 2x to SEA for the spring. WN will have additional flights to DEN, AUS, MDW, BWI, FLL, BNA, and SAT.

I do wonder when and if WN's SMF, SJC, RDU, PIT, and IND routes will go daily in the next year. SMF surprisingly has been daily for the past month or so. Nearing 70 departures, they should have the mass to make most of them work.

I'd expect to see a few more dots connected by NK in the summer or fall. They may jump on IND and PIT if WN doesn't increase those and I'd expect to see a few of SAN, PHX, OAK, BDL, RIC, JAX, MBJ, SAP added along with maybe a few additional flights to existing destinations.

DL has been very quiet lately, so that'll be something to watch. Same for G4, F9, and B6.

Two things I'd like to see, but am not holding my breath on are AS to PDX and AA to PHX. The latter seems possible given they recently announced PHX-RDU. I'd have to imagine MSY is high on the list to be added to that hub.

Still waiting on 3M and AM!
 
NolaMD88fan
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Re: The MSY Thread - 2018

Sun Dec 30, 2018 11:40 am

Crap! Thought I had grabbed all of the new routes. Can't believe I forgot about SY and WN to LGA. Those are both pretty big. Thanks!

Thanks for the update on capacity increases as well. Had no idea SMF has been daily the past month. That is good to see. I agree that we'll probably see WN gradually add capacity to existing routes and NK add a few more destinations. I'm hoping we'll see DL go daily to BOS and SEA, and maybe we'll finally get an airline to try PDX. AM has cut some routes due to financial issues, so not sure if we'll see that happening anytime soon. If 3M does announce, maybe the third time will be the charm. Also would be great to see BA go up to a daily flight. Still surprised it isn't to be honest.

Updated:
Lost routes in 2018:

March: F9 ends PVD and ISP.

June: G4 ends SFB and PIE.

August: Vacation Express ends seasonal CUN.

Added routes in 2018:

February: DL starts seasonal SEA and BOS

March: WN starts seasonal SMF
NK starts seasonal CMH

April: WN starts seasonal SJC and CUN
NK starts seasonal ACY ( not returning)

November: WN starts LGA.
SY starts MSP and BNA.

Announced routes for 2019:

February: G4 adds SDF
NK adds AUS and DEN

May: NK adds seasonal PHL
Vacation Express adds seasonal MBJ
 
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LAX772LR
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Re: The MSY Thread - 2018

Sun Dec 30, 2018 5:56 pm

msycajun wrote:
SMF surprisingly has been daily for the past month

NolaMD88fan wrote:
Had no idea SMF has been daily the past month.


That only seems to be the case on the westbound.
The eastbound still requires a stop on most days.

Still a good omen for that route's progress though.
I myself, suspect a more prosaic motive... ~Thranduil
 
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LAX772LR
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Re: The MSY Thread - 2018

Sun Dec 30, 2018 6:21 pm

NolaMD88fan wrote:
maybe we'll finally get an airline to try PDX.

Sorta surprised that it hasn't happened yet.

While it seems all eyes are on AS, I really wouldn't be surprised if another carrier sneaks them... especially since PDX has yet to experience the ULCC explosion occurring at most large/medium gateways: F9 only flies to a single destination, NK only flies to two.

PDX only has a single destination that's both west of the Mississippi and south of Mason Dixon! (MCO via AS).
It's so ripe for an explosion of service to the likes of FLL, MSY, TPA, etc that it's not even funny.



NolaMD88fan wrote:
AM has cut some routes due to financial issues, so not sure if we'll see that happening anytime soon.

Even more to the point, Mexico has cut their replacement airport for MEX.

AM was in expansion mode when they thought they'd be able to grow routes at a new hub with tons more space; now, they're stuck at an airport that's objectively more congested than LHR, with no end or even an official plan for dealing with it, in sight.

That said, CM may as well send Mexico a fruit-basket.
Hopefully, they can continue to develop their presence in the market such that they can stay, should the likes of NK decide to offer nonstops to Honduras or more of LatAm from MSY.


NolaMD88fan wrote:
If 3M does announce, maybe the third time will be the charm.

Ain't the announcement, it's the follow-through, with them.



NolaMD88fan wrote:
Also would be great to see BA go up to a daily flight.

It's so confounding. :mad: :roll: :sad:


NolaMD88fan wrote:
Still surprised it isn't to be honest.

I honestly can't figure out what they are looking for.

BNA was an eye-opener: the flights had nearly identical parameters, and I'd note that MSY was able to do that with a TATL competitor + IAH thrown in as a competitive factor (in addition to just the east coast and midwest transfer gateways)......... yet BA still seems to have no interest in expanding this market, after two years.

I really don't get it, with that flight.
I myself, suspect a more prosaic motive... ~Thranduil
 
jbs2886
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Re: The MSY Thread - 2018

Sun Dec 30, 2018 6:29 pm

LAX772LR wrote:
NolaMD88fan wrote:
maybe we'll finally get an airline to try PDX.

Sorta surprised that it hasn't happened yet.

While it seems all eyes are on AS, I really wouldn't be surprised if another carrier sneaks them... especially since PDX has yet to experience the ULCC explosion occurring at most large/medium gateways: F9 only flies to a single destination, NK only flies to two.

PDX only has a single destination that's both west of the Mississippi and south of Mason Dixon! (MCO via AS).
It's so ripe for an explosion of service to the likes of FLL, MSY, TPA, etc that it's not even funny.


I think ATL qualifies as west of the Mississippi and south of the Mason Dixon. Sure, AS is dropping the route again, but DL is still on it.

Edit: AA on CLT-PDX, too.
 
jbpdx
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Re: The MSY Thread - 2018

Sun Dec 30, 2018 7:25 pm

jbs2886 wrote:
LAX772LR wrote:

PDX only has a single destination that's both west of the Mississippi and south of Mason Dixon! (MCO via AS).
It's so ripe for an explosion of service to the likes of FLL, MSY, TPA, etc that it's not even funny.


I think ATL qualifies as west of the Mississippi and south of the Mason Dixon. Sure, AS is dropping the route again, but DL is still on it.

Edit: AA on CLT-PDX, too.


You mean east of Mississippi. PDX also is Nashville’s No.1 priority for a new domestic nonstop.
Major airports with no PDX nonstops: MIA, FLL, TPA, IND, MSY, CLE, CVG, PIT, RDU; +BWI, +PHL, +YYZ
 
jbs2886
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Re: The MSY Thread - 2018

Sun Dec 30, 2018 8:21 pm

jbpdx wrote:
jbs2886 wrote:
LAX772LR wrote:

PDX only has a single destination that's both west of the Mississippi and south of Mason Dixon! (MCO via AS).
It's so ripe for an explosion of service to the likes of FLL, MSY, TPA, etc that it's not even funny.


I think ATL qualifies as west of the Mississippi and south of the Mason Dixon. Sure, AS is dropping the route again, but DL is still on it.

Edit: AA on CLT-PDX, too.


You mean east of Mississippi. PDX also is Nashville’s No.1 priority for a new domestic nonstop.


Lol yes, East. That's what I get for posting before I'm fully awake.
 
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LAX772LR
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Re: The MSY Thread - 2018

Sun Dec 30, 2018 11:37 pm

I should clarify that I was speaking in regard to LoCo ops, and an impending LoCo expansion.
I myself, suspect a more prosaic motive... ~Thranduil
 
msycajun
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Re: The MSY Thread - 2018

Mon Dec 31, 2018 1:33 am

LAX772LR wrote:
I should clarify that I was speaking in regard to LoCo ops, and an impending LoCo expansion.


I'm surprised F9 hasn't tried more routes out of PDX. They used to do CLE-PDX, which is similar distance and sized market as MSY-PDX. I think most airlines have been wary of adding longer routes, but if fuel prices stay low, maybe we'll see more expansion.
 
jbpdx
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Re: The MSY Thread - 2018

Mon Dec 31, 2018 1:46 am

msycajun wrote:
LAX772LR wrote:
I should clarify that I was speaking in regard to LoCo ops, and an impending LoCo expansion.


I'm surprised F9 hasn't tried more routes out of PDX. They used to do CLE-PDX, which is similar distance and sized market as MSY-PDX. I think most airlines have been wary of adding longer routes, but if fuel prices stay low, maybe we'll see more expansion.


Frontier barely exists in Portland with one flight a day to Denver and two every other day. I can’t see how it’s profitable.
Major airports with no PDX nonstops: MIA, FLL, TPA, IND, MSY, CLE, CVG, PIT, RDU; +BWI, +PHL, +YYZ
 
SunsetLimited
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Re: The MSY Thread - 2018

Mon Dec 31, 2018 2:51 pm

MSY passed 13 million for the first time ever in 2018.
Spread hope like fire.
 
NolaMD88fan
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Re: The MSY Thread - 2018

Mon Dec 31, 2018 3:06 pm

Simply amazing considering the state of things in 2005.
 
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atcsundevil
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Re: The MSY Thread - 2018

Tue Jan 01, 2019 12:41 am

Continue in next year's discussion.

viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1411857

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