guyanam wrote:

Zidane wrote:

Agreed.
Would some expansion in ANU, BGI and UVF make sense? They do well out of the US.
Perhaps a few leisure routes from TAB?

Not sure why all the talk of expansion when BW is replacing 12 737-800 with the MAX version on a one for one basis meaning that there will not be a net increase in aircraft. In addition the transatlantic routes mentioned would imply another foray into 763 or getting 787s. Its already established that a small fleet of wide bodies cannot be sustained, and even with a joint code with PY to AMS I dont see how this changes.

BW is not a factor in the leisure market. I went to a CTO (Caribbean Tourism Org) event in NYC where they were making a presentation. All BW had on offer as leisure destinations out of NYC were MBJ, GND, and TAB. The consensus in the room was that this doesn't provide enough range and volume for the travel trade. They have since dropped GND, In addition, with the exception of KX, Caribbean carriers have not been able to service leisure routes and remain viable. Air Jamaica, successful in its market presence, generated losses and became extremely indebted as a result. The result being that it no longer exists.


BGI doesn't need BW and that would have been the best market given that it has a larger component of VFR and outbound (to the USA) travel than do the other islands mentioned. With AA and B6 battling it out between them (now 4x daily out of SoFL and 2x out of NY) there is no room for BW.

Even TAB is only on Sundays and also shared with POS. Also, will the weekly JFK-SVD survive?

BW will always be at a disadvantage compared with the big boys who can efficiently deploy their aircraft and crews from their hubs. At least BW has less competition on VFR routes to POS and GEO from YYZ and JFK.

gunnerman wrote:

guyanam wrote:

Zidane wrote:

Agreed.
Would some expansion in ANU, BGI and UVF make sense? They do well out of the US.
Perhaps a few leisure routes from TAB?

Not sure why all the talk of expansion when BW is replacing 12 737-800 with the MAX version on a one for one basis meaning that there will not be a net increase in aircraft. In addition the transatlantic routes mentioned would imply another foray into 763 or getting 787s. Its already established that a small fleet of wide bodies cannot be sustained, and even with a joint code with PY to AMS I dont see how this changes.

BW is not a factor in the leisure market. I went to a CTO (Caribbean Tourism Org) event in NYC where they were making a presentation. All BW had on offer as leisure destinations out of NYC were MBJ, GND, and TAB. The consensus in the room was that this doesn't provide enough range and volume for the travel trade. They have since dropped GND, In addition, with the exception of KX, Caribbean carriers have not been able to service leisure routes and remain viable. Air Jamaica, successful in its market presence, generated losses and became extremely indebted as a result. The result being that it no longer exists.


BGI doesn't need BW and that would have been the best market given that it has a larger component of VFR and outbound (to the USA) travel than do the other islands mentioned. With AA and B6 battling it out between them (now 4x daily out of SoFL and 2x out of NY) there is no room for BW.

Even TAB is only on Sundays and also shared with POS. Also, will the weekly JFK-SVD survive?

BW will always be at a disadvantage compared with the big boys who can efficiently deploy their aircraft and crews from their hubs. At least BW has less competition on VFR routes to POS and GEO from YYZ and JFK.

I think JFK-SVD survives as long as BW is the only carrier on the route which I think it will be for the foreseeable future. It’s essentially a JFK-POS flight with a stop in SVD. Seats they can’t fill to SVD can be filled with POS bound pax. No other airline would have the ability to do that unless they started regional tag ons which is something American carriers have been loathe to do for a significant while now.

BW does well on routes where there is some VFR and outbound traffic as there are some Caribbean people who will be loyal, this being especially true for Trinidadians. This is why they decided to focus on POS and GEO and on the KIN/MBJ to focus on JFK/FLL, exiting BWI and PHL shortly after acquiring these routes from JM. Their issue remains that Jamaicans were hostile to the BW takeover of JM routes, and to compound it BW had some serious service issues in this transition. BW never recovered from this as most Jamaicans use B6.

Americans will select carriers that they know, especially those sensitive to FF programs. Reading TripAdvisor reviews of BWs JFK MBJ there is often some element of surprise that BWs service levels equal or at times even exceed that of the US carriers (hot snacks and friendlier cabin crews). BWIA had some success in wooing some travel agents, but who uses travel agents these days in the USA? Canadians and Europeans use vertically integrated travel wholesalers so there is little left for BW except for the VFRs and outbound.

Only North American route that I can see BW adding is something out of the DC area to the Eastern Caribbean, given that a reasonable VFR market exists. BWIA did run that route for several years.

gunnerman wrote:

trintocan wrote:

gunnerman wrote:

There are T&T aviation issues which refuse to go away. Prime Min­is­ter Dr Kei­th Row­ley has referred to the ill-fated Caribbean Airlines POS-LGW route which lost TT$260m (US$38.8m). He also chal­lenged Op­po­si­tion Leader Kam­la Per­sad-Bisses­sar to make avail­able the find­ings of the in­ves­ti­ga­tion in 2011 in­to the sale of BW’s Heathrow slots in 2006 for TT$60m (US$9m).

http://www.guardian.co.tt/news/cal-lost-260m-on-uk-routepm-6.2.716363.c31702c71f

You are right that this keeps coming up every so often. About the famous BWIA grandfather slots into LHR, T&T were always in a weak bargaining position as the Government wanted a Trinidad - London air link maintained. Airlines from elsewhere were offering more but could not operate the route, VS offered more but did not wish to serve POS directly and preferred to do so indirectly via TAB and BGI. BA agreed to resume flights after 13 years away and were really the only option. It was thus a judgement call as to whether a short-term financial rush outweighed the longer-term benefits of an important air service. To me they made the right decision, comtroversy notwithstanding.

As for Caribbean Airlines starting LGW in 2012, this was a zany vanity project. The basis of starting the route, in competition with the now-entrenched BA and requiring a dedicated subfleet which had low utilisation overall, could be questioned. It seemed a nice thing to do but the market was not there for two airlines between POS and London. Indeed there has not been a market for more than one airline on the route since 1994, when BA pulled out. When one considers that some passengers travel via BGI or MIA to get to London one sees how restricted the overall market is.

Trintocan.

BWIA also operated London nonstops (POS-LHR using the Airbus A340-300) between I believe October 2006 and March 2007. I won't have thought that any money would have been made.

BWIA were being wound down at that time and their routes were being pruned. BWIA ceased to exist on 31 December 2006. When Caribbean Airlines (BW) started up on 1 January 2007, they kept the LHR route three times weekly via BGI as part of the contract for the ICC Cricket World Cup that year. They dropped the route after the tournament ended on 31 March 2007.

Trintocan.

LIAT Resumes Flights To The BVI

LIAT, says it will resume its morning and evening services to British Virgin Islands following the suspension of flights after the devastation caused by Hurricane Irma in 2017.
LIAT will begin its evening service into the Terrence B. Lettsome Airport at Beef Island on December 6 with its the service departing on December 7.
LIAT says it has been working to restore services to hurricane-affected territories as facilities have allowed and a demand for travel has returned. Chief Commercial Officer, Audra Walker expressed the airline’s satisfaction in restarting these flights.
“LIAT remains committed to connecting the region and we are happy now to be resuming these services to connect passengers into and out of the BVI”.

https://antiguanewsroom.com/news/liat-r ... o-the-bvi/

UA seems to be interested in serving GEO mainly based on the emerging energy bonanza that GEO is about to become. BW seems to be missing the boat. IAH-POS seemed worth a try with connections to GEO and PBM to block a potential UA entry and gain market share before the other majors swoop in when the oil starts flowing.Seems to me BW will soon be left fighting for the lowest yield passengers to GEO. CM will also increase flights as of December.

http://demerarawaves.com/2018/12/07/uni ... to-guyana/

BW600 wrote:

UA seems to be interested in serving GEO mainly based on the emerging energy bonanza that GEO is about to become. BW seems to be missing the boat. IAH-POS seemed worth a try with connections to GEO and PBM to block a potential UA entry and gain market share before the other majors swoop in when the oil starts flowing.Seems to me BW will soon be left fighting for the lowest yield passengers to GEO. CM will also increase flights as of December.

http://demerarawaves.com/2018/12/07/uni ... to-guyana/

Do you predict a separate flight or an extension of the POS flight?

BW600 wrote:

UA seems to be interested in serving GEO mainly based on the emerging energy bonanza that GEO is about to become. BW seems to be missing the boat. IAH-POS seemed worth a try with connections to GEO and PBM to block a potential UA entry and gain market share before the other majors swoop in when the oil starts flowing.Seems to me BW will soon be left fighting for the lowest yield passengers to GEO. CM will also increase flights as of December.

http://demerarawaves.com/2018/12/07/uni ... to-guyana/

How much demand can there really be from IAH? The JV with Copa is perfect for routes like this

According to an article on ch.aviation Caribbean Airlines are considering returning to London with the possibility of using their B737 MAX on the route when the airline receives them later next year.

I find that a rather strange move by the airline if it turns out to be true as I would have thought that POS to LGW was a bit of a stretch for the B737 MAX plus the competition going up against British Airways and their high density B772.

Reading the article it appears that Caribbean Airlines might even route a LGW flight from POS via GEO which is currently unserved from the UK.

Although I would love to see the return of the airline at LGW but haven't Caribbean Airlines learnt their lessons on their flights to London!

GUYAIR707 wrote:

BW600 wrote:

UA seems to be interested in serving GEO mainly based on the emerging energy bonanza that GEO is about to become. BW seems to be missing the boat. IAH-POS seemed worth a try with connections to GEO and PBM to block a potential UA entry and gain market share before the other majors swoop in when the oil starts flowing.Seems to me BW will soon be left fighting for the lowest yield passengers to GEO. CM will also increase flights as of December.

http://demerarawaves.com/2018/12/07/uni ... to-guyana/

Do you predict a separate flight or an extension of the POS flight?

I bet that Exxon has contracts with UA so I dont know that these are passengers are BWs to get. Let us wait and see whether UAs intentions are serious. We have heard about WestJet and B6, both more plausible and yet no announcements yet. In fact WS even claimed that they had no interest in GEO, despite claims that were made.

caribbean484 wrote:

if that is the case then this airline is in trouble and the people already holding tickets traveling for Christmas will be in for some pain. They have also cancelled flights for today according to flightaware. I feel sorry for their customers but this airline has been a risky venture all along with the fleet mixture they engaged in.

.

To my knowledge FJ still hasn't resumed service, putting those destined to KIN and GEO for Xmas in serious expense. I am not sure about the refunds.

Divi Divi Curacao is set to land their first B738 wet leased from Corendon tomorrow 12/8. They are going to fly from CUR, to SXM, AUA and GRU. Insel has a few seats on too

Santo Domingo is getting 3 airlines flying to Havana this winter, Sunrise Haiti 12/5 (B734 leased from Peruvian), Cubana 12/14 (B733 leased from Blue Panorama) and the local Air Century 12/13 with CRJ200ER.

Also Blue Panorama adding MXP-SDQ-ANU route starting 21/12

Afternoon All! I've been off the forum for a few years, and have spent the last few days catching up on the conversations in this forum and in the Jamaica forum. Not a damn thing has changed...

Re: Caribbean Airlines and Cayman Airways to London

Both airlines have indicated that flights to London are now possible with the 737 Max 8.

I don't see why Caribbean Airlines couldn't make a go of it, especially with a sensible stop over in a market with limited or no direct competition. The Max 8s have significantly better fuel economy than the current fleet and you wouldn't need a sub fleet of widebodies, meaning none of the additional costs associated with that. You could run that route 3x or 4x weekly without incurring penalties associated with poor aircraft utilization and be much more flexible in redeploying equipment as needed based on demand. The smaller aircraft allows for much better yield management as well... you should only need ~100 pax per flight to make it profitable. The one sub-fleet issue that might crop up is that you may want to have 2 aircraft with an upgraded interior to compete with the long-haul product of your competitors. Even with the one-to-one replacement, if they continue to contract in Jamaica they will have the spare capacity to make it work.

Ditto for Cayman Airways, they have an opportunity in London better than Caribbean Airlines. A GCM-BDA-LHR route would stand good chances of success (either by increasing traffic significantly OR by generating profits, either of which is a metric of success for KX). GCM-LHR is currently served by a 1-stop in NAS with BA's 777 and the fares are steep. GCM-BDA has existing demand which is currently served via MIA on AA, and the non-stops would be appreciated by the market. BDA-LHR would be much appreciated by BDA passengers, who are also stuck with a monopoly and high fares, and fewer alternatives than residents in GCM who still have the option of flying via MIA/TPA/CLT/ATL/JFK. We know the BDA market can sustain additional airlift... Zoom did well while it lasted and increased travel to BDA significantly. All segments would have strong business/ high yield traffic And all the benefits of the Max would accrue to KX as it would to Caribbean Airlines.

That is not to say success would be garaunteed for either carrier, but it does mean they have as reasonable a chance of success in the UK as they would on any other new route, and the attempt would be far less costly even if it failed than it has been in the past with the added expenses of poorly utilised widebody sub fleets. I say if the numbers support the route in theory and they can make the right partnerships, then do it.

GUYAIR707 wrote:

BW600 wrote:

UA seems to be interested in serving GEO mainly based on the emerging energy bonanza that GEO is about to become. BW seems to be missing the boat. IAH-POS seemed worth a try with connections to GEO and PBM to block a potential UA entry and gain market share before the other majors swoop in when the oil starts flowing.Seems to me BW will soon be left fighting for the lowest yield passengers to GEO. CM will also increase flights as of December.

http://demerarawaves.com/2018/12/07/uni ... to-guyana/

Do you predict a separate flight or an extension of the POS flight?

J on UA’s existing POS flight is consistently full with POS oil related traffic which sustains this route. I flew this route recently and persons (oil related) were using this service to transit to GEO even with the overnight in POS it required(This was before AA’s entry). GEO should be able to support its own service in my opinion when things are in full swing based on the order of magnitute the industry will be larger than POS’s and the large Texas based involvement in the industry.

Not sure that the GY industry will be bigger than that of T&T. There will be no oil refining and very few on land activities in GY. The oil will be drilled directly onto ships and then transported overseas. On land will be support services and logistics.

Although there is no refinery there is slated to be traffic, with predictions of about 200,000 expats by 2022. Most of the staffing will be foreign.

Caymanair wrote:

I don't see why Caribbean Airlines couldn't make a go of it, especially with a sensible stop over in a market with limited or no direct competition. The Max 8s have significantly better fuel economy than the current fleet and you wouldn't need a sub fleet of widebodies, meaning none of the additional costs associated with that. You could run that route 3x or 4x weekly without incurring penalties associated with poor aircraft utilization and be much more flexible in redeploying equipment as needed based on demand. The smaller aircraft allows for much better yield management as well... you should only need ~100 pax per flight to make it profitable. The one sub-fleet issue that might crop up is that you may want to have 2 aircraft with an upgraded interior to compete with the long-haul product of your competitors. Even with the one-to-one replacement, if they continue to contract in Jamaica they will have the spare capacity to make it work.
...
That is not to say success would be garaunteed for either carrier, but it does mean they have as reasonable a chance of success in the UK as they would on any other new route, and the attempt would be far less costly even if it failed than it has been in the past with the added expenses of poorly utilised widebody sub fleets. I say if the numbers support the route in theory and they can make the right partnerships, then do it.

Caribbean really has on its side that the B737MAX8 has the range and it's the same aircraft/configuration to be flown on its regional/North American routes.
However, POS-LON on B737MAX8 is an ETOPS t route.
Moreover, for 100+ passengers, are LHR or LGW slots worth it? If it's more of a B737 O/D route, London airports STN or LTN could work.

GUYAIR707 wrote:

Although there is no refinery there is slated to be traffic, with predictions of about 200,000 expats by 2022. Most of the staffing will be foreign.

I don't take statements from the Guyana gov't too seriously. Listening to them one would think that Guyana will become Dubai by 2021.

2travel2know2 wrote:

[
However, POS-LON on B737MAX8 is an ETOPS t route.
Moreover, for 100+ passengers, are LHR or LGW slots worth it? If it's more of a B737 O/D route, London airports STN or LTN could work.

I think that the new BW CEO is just excited that he actually has profits to report, notwithstanding that Jamaica routes and stiff competition into POS that his imagination is running wild. There will be no LGW route. All BW is doing is replacing its existing jet fleet, so unless there are major route cuts I don't know where there is scope for new long routes, even in the unlikely event that these are viable.

I last heard that the SXM terminal building was scheduled to be reopened on Saturday, Dec. 15. Is that still the plan?

https://www.thedailyherald.sx/islands/8 ... -of-dec-15

guyanam wrote:

caribbean484 wrote:

if that is the case then this airline is in trouble and the people already holding tickets traveling for Christmas will be in for some pain. They have also cancelled flights for today according to flightaware. I feel sorry for their customers but this airline has been a risky venture all along with the fleet mixture they engaged in.
.

To my knowledge FJ still hasn't resumed service, putting those destined to KIN and GEO for Xmas in serious expense. I am not sure about the refunds.

It seems that the owners are yet to make a statement, and we are in the busy season now; so perople who are holding tickets with them may see lots of operational issues. Imagine the media are asking to talk with representatives of the airline an all call and emails go unanswered. The last issue was that flights will come back on Dec14, and tomorrow all flights have been cancelled.
What I don't get is why the JCAA has not yet call upon the airline to give reasons for these cancellations. In the EU this airline's AOC would have been pull for this and major fines issued to its owners.

United787 wrote:

I last heard that the SXM terminal building was scheduled to be reopened on Saturday, Dec. 15. Is that still the plan?

https://www.thedailyherald.sx/islands/8 ... -of-dec-15

I believe Phase 1 is complete and the terminal is reopened

St Maarten Airport Operations Move Into The Terminal Building
http://sintmaartenvacation.com/st-maart ... 4LxBysIfKQ

https://scontent-ort2-2.xx.fbcdn.net/v/ ... e=5CA0A1BE

On the Jamaica forum they are putting the blame on the GCAA even though OJs AOC is with Jamaica. My understanding is that those who were planning to use OJ for the Xmas Season have had to make other arrangements, or cancel their trips. Not sure what refunds are available.

It is clear that OJ lacks the funds to either lease a plane or to pay for whatever maintenance work is being done on the 767. They have had severe problems almost every peak season over the past few years and last Xmas it was especially scandalous.

Those who scream that Caribbean airlines need to be privately owned need to take stock of the fact that the only airlines that operate with some level of reliability are the state owned carriers. There is no evidence that the Caribbean private sector has any better ability to manage these airlines or to fund their operations than does the state owned sector. The reality is the Caribbean private sector is not that innovative, creative, or globally competitive. Even major brands like Red Stripe and Appleton are now foreign owned.

BGI seems to be looking towards expansion and being run by an international player with the hope of becoming a hub (The hub idea has sailed in my opinion)
https://barbadostoday.bb/2018/12/13/air ... ssionaire/

BGI is already a hub Airport.

windian425 wrote:

BGI is already a hub Airport.

I think that they mean more than LI's hub operations, which aren't likely to grow, given that the neighboring islands have improved connectivity. Not sure that I see that happening.

guyanam wrote:

windian425 wrote:

BGI is already a hub Airport.

I think that they mean more than LI's hub operations, which aren't likely to grow, given that the neighboring islands have improved connectivity. Not sure that I see that happening.

I quite agree. BGI is no "hub airport". BGI has quite a large O/D traffic and passengers using BGI to connect to other islands are decreasing by record numbers. Given now that the US embassy no longer requires a trip to renew visas, the need for travel to BGI is also reducing.

I'm happy to see the automated kiosks being put in place. I really hoped all the islands would've come on board en bloc with that project and remove those silly E/D cards entirely.

E/D cards really need to go. Waste of paper and people’s time. BGI still has connectivity between international carriers and LIAT with the other islands having less than daily flights, the need still exists. And let’s not forget the connectivity to the Grenadines off the UK flights in particular.
If BGI is not a hub Airport, then the definition has certainly changed.

windian425 wrote:

E/D cards really need to go. Waste of paper and people’s time. BGI still has connectivity between international carriers and LIAT with the other islands having less than daily flights, the need still exists. And let’s not forget the connectivity to the Grenadines off the UK flights in particular.
If BGI is not a hub Airport, then the definition has certainly changed.

The cards are needed for statistical purposes. BGI is a tourist product and they need to know who these people are, where they are coming from, purpose of visit and the type of property that they will be staying at. I am sure that non residents will still have to complete some sort of form. Aside from tourism data there is also the need to prevent entry of unwanted individuals.

So I am willing to bet that the kiosks will require scanned forms from non residents. For people with a BGI passports that should be enough.

Connecting 100-200 passengers a day (if that) doesn't a hub make (aside from LI's own connectivity). Its basically just SVG and maybe GND out of the UK for those who cannot use the 4X weekly flights that they get out of LGW. Maybe a few connecting to OGL(Guyana) which is closer to the capital than GEO. UVF now has almost as much connectivity as does BGI.

When the proposed operators discussed a hub they are thinking of more than this. BGI isnt going to grow based on increased hub activity. Certainly GND and SVD are trying to get more direct flights.

guyanam wrote:

windian425 wrote:

E/D cards really need to go. Waste of paper and people’s time. BGI still has connectivity between international carriers and LIAT with the other islands having less than daily flights, the need still exists. And let’s not forget the connectivity to the Grenadines off the UK flights in particular.
If BGI is not a hub Airport, then the definition has certainly changed.

The cards are needed for statistical purposes. BGI is a tourist product and they need to know who these people are, where they are coming from, purpose of visit and the type of property that they will be staying at. I am sure that non residents will still have to complete some sort of form. Aside from tourism data there is also the need to prevent entry of unwanted individuals.

So I am willing to bet that the kiosks will require scanned forms from non residents. For people with a BGI passports that should be enough.

Connecting 100-200 passengers a day (if that) doesn't a hub make (aside from LI's own connectivity). Its basically just SVG and maybe GND out of the UK for those who cannot use the 4X weekly flights that they get out of LGW. Maybe a few connecting to OGL(Guyana) which is closer to the capital than GEO. UVF now has almost as much connectivity as does BGI.

When the proposed operators discussed a hub they are thinking of more than this. BGI isnt going to grow based on increased hub activity. Certainly GND and SVD are trying to get more direct flights.

For hub purposes BGI does serve SVD primarily. I'd also give them DOM. There is also the fact that BGI has relatively low fares to non-regional destinations compared to other islands and will get some people who are seeking the cheapest route. BGI, also acts as a connector within and to/from the Windward Islands regionally thanks to LIAT. Outside of that, it isn't much of a hub anymore. I'd argue that the days of the Caribbean hub airport with the possible exception of SXM are over. SJU's glory days are over, ANU is basically just LIAT and a few UK connections to the northeastern islands, POS is essentially just TAB with significantly smaller levels of traffic to CCS, PBM, GEO and GND. Most places are now well connected to the mainland US in their own right. There is less and less dependence on "bigger" airports within the region to provide that service. Whether that's a good or bad thing is open for debate.

In the southern Caribbean BGI and POS are the only real hub airports. Not trying to compare BGI with ATL.

BGI passports are still having to fill E/D cards.

While BGI is a hub for LIAT and POS for BW neither airport is going to grow its hub operations much as their role as hubs is in decline as nearby islands see better direct service. Their locations are sub optimal when compared to PTY or even BOG.

As BGI seeks to grow it will have to be from O&D unless they develop thin routes from points in Europe and South America. I doubt that this will happen.

As I suspected the kiosks will be merely used to speed up flows as passports and cards are scanned, this leaving immigration personnel for those who require mare careful screening.

The closure of LGW is having a major impact on Caribbean flights as it's the biggest UK airport for the region. All flights today (Thursday 20th) are cancelled or delayed. Here is a selection of flights affected to LGW yesterday.

BA2152 from BGI - diverted to SNN
BA2154 from BGI - diverted to LHR
BA2158 from GND and UVF - diverted to CWL
BA2256 from SKB and ANU - diverted to NCL
BA2262 from KIN - diverted to CWL
BA2202 from CUN - diverted to CWL
VS030 from BGI - diverted to LHR

Eastern Airlines, formerly known as Dynamic Airways, has filed with the US DOT and Guyana Civil Aviation Authority to operate a weekly JFK-GEO flight for a 3-year period. Dynamic had a bad reputation having pulled out of Guyana in late 2017 leaving passengers stranded and employees out of a job.

AA978, JFK-ANU has been diverted to BDA, anyone know why?

AA987 was diverted due to a Medical Emergency.

On 18 December I boarded BW526 on time at POS for the flight to GEO due to depart at 1515. But we were on stationary for 75 minutes until pushback and a further 15 minutes elapsed until wheels up. I think I managed to piece together what happened.

Flight BW521 had arrived at POS from JFK and the bags for the passengers connecting onto BW526 were offloaded and scanned with one scanner. Does anyone know why bags need to be rescanned? And how can an airport like POS have only one working scanner?

Please continue in next year's discussion.

viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1411925