Oman Air 789 A4O-SH getting to depart PAE on delivery to MCT last Saturday



https://twitter.com/JenSchuld/status/10 ... 7045708800

Korean Air 789 HL7209 returning to PAE after its B2 flight



https://twitter.com/JenSchuld/status/10 ... 7479936000

RobK wrote:

JayinKitsap wrote:

So what will be the number of 787's delivered this year - could it reach 145?

No.

Max 144. Whether it reaches that will depend on whether the Hainan's get handed over and also the El Al. The others should all go.

UA is supposed to get their third 78J.. It should ready for a C1 now. A few months ago LN548 from the test program was expected delivery to UA this year as well... given it doesn’t show to have flown in 10 months I think not so much.

RobK wrote:

RobK wrote:

RR don't seem to be able to catch a break at the moment. Engines packed up on G-CKWP on Saturday afternoon as it was leaving on delivery. Couldn't get them fired up, dead! Towed back to a flight line stall and crew went back home.

Have the engines packed up for a second time on this one? It was due to go at 1pm but is still on the deck at PAE. What an embarrassment.

Id rather see the engines “pack up” on the ramp vs. in the air.

Line 528, 787-10 for SIA flew for the first time in a while. Line 796, 787-9 for Air Tahiti Nu had it’s B1 flight.

UAL747-600

The next B789 for Korean Air was delivered yesterday:

Boeing 787-9 34818 788 HL7209 Korean Air delivery 19 December 2018 PAE-ICN

The third B787-10 for United Airlines was delivered yesterday:

Boeing 787-10 40935 782 N12003 United Airlines delivery 20 December 2018 CHS-IAD

audidudi wrote:

The third B787-10 for United Airlines was delivered yesterday:

Boeing 787-10 40935 782 N12003 United Airlines delivery 20 December 2018 CHS-IAD

LN 548 was originally planned to be the fourth UA delivery as N12004, but that # has been assigned to LN795.
LN800 is off FAL too, but not showing a reg# yet. I presume LN548 is taking longer to complete re-work than expected.

Looks like just two more deliveries planned this year: LN 528 (787-10 test frame #1 for SIA) and one more Hainan frame, this one under BOC lease. Everything else has been booted into next year. That will give Boeing a total of 145 787 deliveries in 2018, including two test frames built in early 2017.

Quite surprised that Hainan will apparently manage to take all of its planned 787 frames for 2018. The same has not been true for its A330 orders.

RobK wrote:

JayinKitsap wrote:

So what will be the number of 787's delivered this year - could it reach 145?

No.

Max 144. Whether it reaches that will depend on whether the Hainan's get handed over and also the El Al. The others should all go.

Why NO so conclusively. In theory they could have delivered 144 + 3 test frames for a total of 147 this year. Why you are saying Max 144 I don’t know. Could be less or in theory could be more.

seabosdca wrote:

Looks like just two more deliveries planned this year: LN 528 (787-10 test frame #1 for SIA) and one more Hainan frame, this one under BOC lease. Everything else has been booted into next year. That will give Boeing a total of 145 787 deliveries in 2018, including two test frames built in early 2017.

Quite surprised that Hainan will apparently manage to take all of its planned 787 frames for 2018. The same has not been true for its A330 orders.

Easier to finance a current generation 787, than a end of the line previous generation A330.

seabosdca wrote:

Looks like just two more deliveries planned this year: LN 528 (787-10 test frame #1 for SIA) and one more Hainan frame, this one under BOC lease. Everything else has been booted into next year. That will give Boeing a total of 145 787 deliveries in 2018, including two test frames built in early 2017. Quite surprised that Hainan will apparently manage to take all of its planned 787 frames for 2018. The same has not been true for its A330 orders.

Do you have any source about those Hainan deliveries other than the target dates that Uresh put in his spreadsheet? China Development Bank, which is financing HNA Group, has remained very silent on the matter. I personally have not seen anything that would indicate one way or another whether the A350s, A330s and B787s will deliver before year end. I'm not saying they won't but simply saying that 2018 deliveries can be 145. It can also easily be 143 if 766/779 don't get delivered. 784 is not an issue as BOC is the owner.

george77300 wrote:

RobK wrote:

JayinKitsap wrote:

So what will be the number of 787's delivered this year - could it reach 145?

No.

Max 144. Whether it reaches that will depend on whether the Hainan's get handed over and also the El Al. The others should all go.

Why NO so conclusively. In theory they could have delivered 144 + 3 test frames for a total of 147 this year. Why you are saying Max 144 I don’t know. Could be less or in theory could be more.

I hadn't spotted the SQ so far back up the list. That one has a strong chance of going before the year end. The HU frames are the unknowns.

The fourth B787-10 for Ethihad Airways was delivered today:

Boeing 787-10 60758 777 A6-BMD Etihad Airways delivery 22 December 2018 CHS-AUH

The third B789 for Juneyao Airlines was delivered yesterday:

Boeing 787-9 64314 790 B-208A Juneyao Airlines delivery 21 December 2018 PAE-SHA ex N1005S

So what is the running total of deliveries for 2018 now...145, 146 or 147? I'm surprised that no one has previously mentioned these two deliveries as being likely!

audidudi wrote:

So what is the running total of deliveries for 2018 now...145, 146 or 147? I'm surprised that no one has previously mentioned these two deliveries as being likely!

141 delivered. Target remains 143-145 depending on the Hainan frames. You haven't dug up anything new.

travelhound wrote:

seabosdca wrote:

Looks like just two more deliveries planned this year: LN 528 (787-10 test frame #1 for SIA) and one more Hainan frame, this one under BOC lease. Everything else has been booted into next year. That will give Boeing a total of 145 787 deliveries in 2018, including two test frames built in early 2017.

Quite surprised that Hainan will apparently manage to take all of its planned 787 frames for 2018. The same has not been true for its A330 orders.

Easier to finance a current generation 787, than a end of the line previous generation A330.

More to do with who is financing, and the 'blind' underwriting, than model type.

hkcanadaexpat wrote:

audidudi wrote:

So what is the running total of deliveries for 2018 now...145, 146 or 147? I'm surprised that no one has previously mentioned these two deliveries as being likely!

141 delivered. Target remains 143-145 depending on the Hainan frames. You haven't dug up anything new.

Oh really? Then of course you can explain why this table on the link below, shows that 143 have been delivered. Click on the "2018 Projected Customer Deliveries" tab, and then scroll down the "Actual Deliveries" column. According to the "seabosdca", in reply #1158 above, there were only going to be two further deliveries this year, and he didn't mention either of these.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... /htmlview#

audidudi wrote:

hkcanadaexpat wrote:

audidudi wrote:

So what is the running total of deliveries for 2018 now...145, 146 or 147? I'm surprised that no one has previously mentioned these two deliveries as being likely!

141 delivered. Target remains 143-145 depending on the Hainan frames. You haven't dug up anything new.

Oh really? Then of course you can explain why this table on the link below, shows that 143 have been delivered. Click on the "2018 Projected Customer Deliveries" tab, and then scroll down the "Actual Deliveries" column. According to the "seabosdca", in reply #1158 above, there were only going to be two further deliveries this year, and he didn't mention either of these.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... /htmlview#

You're both using an outdated and unreliable reference as your source. The projected delivery dates on that sheet haven't been updated since they were originally published around 9 months ago so arguing with each other over the semantics is a completely pointless exercise. There seems to be some sort of cult following of that sheet by members and moderators here and daring to point out that it's full of gaping holes and inaccuracies has resulted in posts being deleted, and I expect this one will go the same way.

RobK wrote:

audidudi wrote:

hkcanadaexpat wrote:

141 delivered. Target remains 143-145 depending on the Hainan frames. You haven't dug up anything new.

Oh really? Then of course you can explain why this table on the link below, shows that 143 have been delivered. Click on the "2018 Projected Customer Deliveries" tab, and then scroll down the "Actual Deliveries" column. According to the "seabosdca", in reply #1158 above, there were only going to be two further deliveries this year, and he didn't mention either of these.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... /htmlview#

You're both using an outdated and unreliable reference as your source. The projected delivery dates on that sheet haven't been updated since they were originally published around 9 months ago so arguing with each other over the semantics is a completely pointless exercise. There seems to be some sort of cult following of that sheet by members and moderators here and daring to point out that it's full of gaping holes and inaccuracies has resulted in posts being deleted, and I expect this one will go the same way.

So what is the actual delivery # for 2018 year-to-date, and also the total projected # for 2018? Thanks fellow Brit!

Unless someone has a crystal ball, nobody has the answer to that seeing as there are 10 days of the month remaining. Why not just wait and see?

RobK wrote:

You're both using an outdated and unreliable reference as your source. The projected delivery dates on that sheet haven't been updated since they were originally published around 9 months ago so arguing with each other over the semantics is a completely pointless exercise. There seems to be some sort of cult following of that sheet by members and moderators here and daring to point out that it's full of gaping holes and inaccuracies has resulted in posts being deleted, and I expect this one will go the same way.

Relying on Uresh's sheet as your only source of information will occasionally lead people astray, but on the other hand it's a good deal more accurate than you suggest. All of the projected delivery dates for these frames were updated within the last week. Usually, if a delivery doesn't happen as scheduled, it won't be reflected on the sheet (although I can think of a few exceptions, and in one of them Hainan was involved). It's a more than reasonable tracking tool but you have to be prepared for the fact that once in a while it is wrong. Uresh doesn't work for Boeing and he is relying on secondhand data.

seabosdca wrote:

RobK wrote:

You're both using an outdated and unreliable reference as your source. The projected delivery dates on that sheet haven't been updated since they were originally published around 9 months ago so arguing with each other over the semantics is a completely pointless exercise. There seems to be some sort of cult following of that sheet by members and moderators here and daring to point out that it's full of gaping holes and inaccuracies has resulted in posts being deleted, and I expect this one will go the same way.

Relying on Uresh's sheet as your only source of information will occasionally lead people astray, but on the other hand it's a good deal more accurate than you suggest. All of the projected delivery dates for these frames were updated within the last week. Usually, if a delivery doesn't happen as scheduled, it won't be reflected on the sheet (although I can think of a few exceptions, and in one of them Hainan was involved). It's a more than reasonable tracking tool but you have to be prepared for the fact that once in a while it is wrong. Uresh doesn't work for Boeing and he is relying on secondhand data.

Seabos: I'm well aware of who Uresh is. It was me after all who supplied him with the data you see on his sheets for the early 787s up to around 2011 before I took a break from my aviation hobbies. I have had many personal dealings with him, some good and some not good, but let's leave that there as this isn't the place for that.

Unless you have official Boeing data to compare it against I'm struggling to see how you can state that his data is "a good deal more accurate than you suggest". What is this based on? I do see the data from both sides and although he's toned it down a bit now most of his future registration details were pure guesswork based on nothing other than incrementing the previous frame's registration by one letter/number. If you have 'notify me of changes' activated on his sheet you get an email when the cell data has been edited and there have been hundreds of them in the reg column. The roll-out dates shown are regularly wrong as well because the frame will often slip by a day or two. Listing first flight and delivery dates so far in advance is a Fool's errand as they are affected by many factors and are constantly changing even up to the final weeks before they've due to happen. Take ln 688 for example. As of today he's edited the delivery date 6 times! I've lost track of how many times the Hainan Airlines Holding frames have been edited. The future date listing criteria seems to be based on a "let's just add another week to it and cross our fingers" premise. And what about the Uzbekistan? I posted at the time that the info he showed (UK-78704) was wrong and a few members piped up and argued I was wrong because Uresh showed something different. Sure enough, it wasn't UK-78704 (and was never allocated that reg either, it was originally allocated UK78700 before changing during production to UK001). He had the MU 787 frame as going to FM, based purely on the previous ones going to FM and look how that turned out.

I'm not in any way saying that his work should be discarded as he generally gets the basic frame data correct (tab number, msn, owner and operator) but the rest of it should be viewed more as a guide rather than a accurate definitive list, especially with regards the future date info.

audidudi wrote:

hkcanadaexpat wrote:

audidudi wrote:

So what is the running total of deliveries for 2018 now...145, 146 or 147? I'm surprised that no one has previously mentioned these two deliveries as being likely!

141 delivered. Target remains 143-145 depending on the Hainan frames. You haven't dug up anything new.

Oh really? Then of course you can explain why this table on the link below, shows that 143 have been delivered. Click on the "2018 Projected Customer Deliveries" tab, and then scroll down the "Actual Deliveries" column. According to the "seabosdca", in reply #1158 above, there were only going to be two further deliveries this year, and he didn't mention either of these.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... /htmlview#

Say what you want and source Uresh all you want. There have been 141 deliveries to date and that's a fact. There remains 4 frames that "may" be delivered this year. 766/779 to Hainan. 784 to Hainan via BOCL. 528 to Singapore. So the bullet proof answer is 141-145 is the target range. If you want to pull straws and throw your hand in the fire, add 794 to El Al via ILFC for the heck of it.

Regardless of the actual current delivery number Boeing could have already have delivered 144 787s + the -10 prototypes, they are right on target with the production this year.

The 787-10 prototype has just sneaked out of CHS for KIX on delivery to SQ. Due into KIX just before midnight at the end of Christmas Day local time! Poor crew!

RobK wrote:

The 787-10 prototype has just sneaked out of CHS for KIX on delivery to SQ. Due into KIX just before midnight at the end of Christmas Day local time! Poor crew!

That just leaves the GE test aircraft that will be going to UA. Unlikely it will be ready to deliver before next month.

Hainan 789 B-207U has been delivered

https://twitter.com/flightintl/status/1 ... 88258?s=21

Please continue in next year's discussion.

viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1411885