Well, clearly I don’t know what I’m talking about.

I’m on a 757-200 tonight in F and I will be very happy, regardless if I think they could be renovated with United’ latest cabin design.

There are several of the of exCO 757s that are showing lots of wear and tear in the cabin and are showing their age. The seats in the ps 757s are newer and the IFE has newer software or operating system since they tend to work slightly better/faster.

Can someone please give an update of the widebody fleet and how many of each type have the new Polaris seats installed?

Many thanks in advance.

gsg013 wrote:

Can someone please give an update of the widebody fleet and how many of each type have the new Polaris seats installed?

Many thanks in advance.

Sure...
77W 14 in service plus 4 more delivered this year all with Polaris
77E 55 in service (33 with IPTE and 22 with Diamond seats) to begin getting Polaris this year
772 19 in service (domestic configuration with IPTE J Class)
78J 3 to be delivered later this year with Polaris
789 25 with Diamond seats (23 in service and 2 about to be delivered/induction)
788 12 in service with Diamond seats
764 16 in service with Diamond seats
763 35 in service (5 with Polaris, 2 in mod for Polaris, 21 Diamond, 7 IPTE) 3 more to be delivered later this year

Will the 3 new 763’s be getting Polaris when they come in to be refitted?
I know they are used (from Hawaiian?) correct?
Or might they get Diamond seats given the delivery issues re: Polaris
Thanks

VC10er wrote:

Will the 3 new 763’s be getting Polaris when they come in to be refitted?
I know they are used (from Hawaiian?) correct?
Or might they get Diamond seats given the delivery issues re: Polaris
Thanks

I don't know for sure if they will come online with Polaris but I don't believe there are issues getting Polaris seats delivered any longer.

Yes they are coming from HA...

KVH68 wrote:

789

N24973
02/25/18, IAD-SFO, Flight# 0424
02/25/18, SFO-IAD, Flight# 0753
02/26/18, IAD-SFO, Flight# 0424
02/26/18, SFO-IAD, Flight# 0753

First revenue day is not IAD-SFO-IAD-GRU https://flightaware.com/live/flight/N24973

jetblastdubai wrote:

KVH68 wrote:

789

N24973
02/25/18, IAD-SFO, Flight# 0424
02/25/18, SFO-IAD, Flight# 0753
02/26/18, IAD-SFO, Flight# 0424
02/26/18, SFO-IAD, Flight# 0753

First revenue day is not IAD-SFO-IAD-GRU https://flightaware.com/live/flight/N24973

Typo alert: *is now

United1 wrote:

VC10er wrote:

Will the 3 new 763’s be getting Polaris when they come in to be refitted?
I know they are used (from Hawaiian?) correct?
Or might they get Diamond seats given the delivery issues re: Polaris
Thanks

I don't know for sure if they will come online with Polaris but I don't believe there are issues getting Polaris seats delivered any longer.

Yes they are coming from HA...

I hope so! I love the 763 (I don’t care how old the design is). For me it’s the Goldie Locks “just right” airplane. And with new interiors I’d defy any average person to guess her age!

VC10er wrote:

United1 wrote:

VC10er wrote:

Will the 3 new 763’s be getting Polaris when they come in to be refitted?
I know they are used (from Hawaiian?) correct?
Or might they get Diamond seats given the delivery issues re: Polaris
Thanks

I don't know for sure if they will come online with Polaris but I don't believe there are issues getting Polaris seats delivered any longer.

Yes they are coming from HA...

I hope so! I love the 763 (I don’t care how old the design is). For me it’s the Goldie Locks “just right” airplane. And with new interiors I’d defy any average person to guess her age!

Speculation: If the HA aircraft go to HKG for conversion/induction it’s likely they will have Polaris.

Still find it crazy to me that UA is taking new 787's with the old BE Diamond Seat.

gsg013 wrote:

Still find it crazy to me that UA is taking new 787's with the old BE Diamond Seat.

I'm sure they signed a contract with the manufacturer long before Polaris was a guarantee. Plus, if the new orders came with Polaris they would end up with a handful of 789s which wouldn't match the rest of the fleet for years. The 777s and 767s definitely need to be addressed before the 787s.

VC10er wrote:

United1 wrote:

VC10er wrote:

Will the 3 new 763’s be getting Polaris when they come in to be refitted?
I know they are used (from Hawaiian?) correct?
Or might they get Diamond seats given the delivery issues re: Polaris
Thanks

I don't know for sure if they will come online with Polaris but I don't believe there are issues getting Polaris seats delivered any longer.

Yes they are coming from HA...

I hope so! I love the 763 (I don’t care how old the design is). For me it’s the Goldie Locks “just right” airplane. And with new interiors I’d defy any average person to guess her age!

The three HA ones were built in 2002-03 - on par with their newest original A320's, and in the middle of the 772ER's. How are these particular 763's ancient?

gsg013 wrote:

Still find it crazy to me that UA is taking new 787's with the old BE Diamond Seat.

The two 789s recently delivered are the last ones.

codc10 wrote:

gsg013 wrote:

Still find it crazy to me that UA is taking new 787's with the old BE Diamond Seat.

The two 789s recently delivered are the last ones.

Speaking of the last two.. N24973 oped UA861 IADGRU yesterday and now today’s 860 back to IAD is showing delayed 12 hours due ‘Operational Difficulties’

1989worstyear wrote:

VC10er wrote:

United1 wrote:

I don't know for sure if they will come online with Polaris but I don't believe there are issues getting Polaris seats delivered any longer.

Yes they are coming from HA...

I hope so! I love the 763 (I don’t care how old the design is). For me it’s the Goldie Locks “just right” airplane. And with new interiors I’d defy any average person to guess her age!

The three HA ones were built in 2002-03 - on par with their newest original A320's, and in the middle of the 772ER's. How are these particular 763's ancient?

Ok, I was being a bit dramatic when I used the word “ancient”...but the anti-767 crowd often criticizes it for being an “ancient design”...while folks like me love her as is.

I think the age of the 767 and others are a testament to these airplanes. While the 737 is old too, and doesn’t have the same size order book as her direct competition, she is STILL a viable design (albeit updated) and going to hit 10,000.

I wish United actually went and ordered 50 767’s until the 797 is designed and being delivered

UA would have to purchase new Diamond seats as none have been pulled from any aircraft and won't be until sCO 772 or 764 reconfiguration, whenever that would be. And, I don't believe the 772 seats fit in the 767.

Undoubtedly these units will get a complete redo from carpets, sidewalls, seats and maybe bins/lavs, so I'm sure UA will add Polaris. If UA is completely doing their own 1991 era 763s with Polaris, it would make no sense to cheap out on low cycle aircraft that are over a decade newer.

VC10er wrote:

1989worstyear wrote:

VC10er wrote:

I hope so! I love the 763 (I don’t care how old the design is). For me it’s the Goldie Locks “just right” airplane. And with new interiors I’d defy any average person to guess her age!

The three HA ones were built in 2002-03 - on par with their newest original A320's, and in the middle of the 772ER's. How are these particular 763's ancient?

Ok, I was being a bit dramatic when I used the word “ancient”...but the anti-767 crowd often criticizes it for being an “ancient design”...while folks like me love her as is.

I think the age of the 767 and others are a testament to these airplanes. While the 737 is old too, and doesn’t have the same size order book as her direct competition, she is STILL a viable design (albeit updated) and going to hit 10,000.

I wish United actually went and ordered 50 767’s until the 797 is designed and being delivered

I’ve never seen anything that stated that UA’s request to see if new 767s are viable has ended yet.

SFOtoORD wrote:

You just wrote 4 paragraphs about losing one bathroom. Much ado about nothing.

On the whole these aircraft need a new cabin. Losing one lav isn’t great, but it’s not a half page rant.

77H wrote:

You don’t fly DL and you made it quite clear in another thread you “kicked UA to the curb” last year. For someone who doesn’t fly UA any longer it’s curious that you seem to be a major contributor in every UA thread, the majority of your posts, negative in nature. If you’re not longer a patron of UA why does anything they do matter to you enough to spend time drafting up paragraphs long posts? Trouble cutting the cord?

77H

This is an ENTHUSIAST website. Ergo, I'm interested in what ALL the airlines are doing.
I'm thrilled that the planes are getting updates- that's always a good thing. But, for the reasons I spent an (evidently offensive) half page "ranting" about, I'm not a fan of reducing lav count.
And, perhaps you missed in that other thread where I did indeed say that I've "kicked UA to the curb" that I'd gladly come back if UA could figure out how to stop sucking.
And frankly, I'd be happy to. There are several things about UA that I miss, and that my new buddy Alaska Airlines just can't offer.
So... cool your jets. What difference does it make you whether I write 500 pages on United's odd fleet choices or not?

Back on topic, I sure hope that the 753 refresh ends up producing a nice ride. They were once my faves in the whole United fleet.

UA444 wrote:

There are several of the of exCO 757s that are showing lots of wear and tear in the cabin and are showing their age. The seats in the ps 757s are newer and the IFE has newer software or operating system since they tend to work slightly better/faster.

I have seen what you are talking about. The 753 & 764 cabins are looking really worn. It is embarrassing. I don't think they have seen any care since the merger.

It creates a very inconsistent experience sadly.

VC10er wrote:

1989worstyear wrote:

VC10er wrote:

I hope so! I love the 763 (I don’t care how old the design is). For me it’s the Goldie Locks “just right” airplane. And with new interiors I’d defy any average person to guess her age!

The three HA ones were built in 2002-03 - on par with their newest original A320's, and in the middle of the 772ER's. How are these particular 763's ancient?

Ok, I was being a bit dramatic when I used the word “ancient”...but the anti-767 crowd often criticizes it for being an “ancient design”...while folks like me love her as is.

I think the age of the 767 and others are a testament to these airplanes. While the 737 is old too, and doesn’t have the same size order book as her direct competition, she is STILL a viable design (albeit updated) and going to hit 10,000.

I wish United actually went and ordered 50 767’s until the 797 is designed and being delivered

If...IF... B will build more passenger 763s ... for an acceptable price... UA will definitely buy.
To my knowledge the ‘ if/price’ part has not yet been determined.

I hope they at least installed tablet holders.

FlightLevel360 wrote:

I hope they at least installed tablet holders.

On what the 753s? Yeah I believe the seats do have them...

United1 wrote:

FlightLevel360 wrote:

I hope they at least installed tablet holders.

On what the 753s? Yeah I believe the seats do have them...

That's good to hear. Now it's just a matter of speculation if these will be the B/E Aerospace Pinnacle on the 772A or the Meridian on the 73M9.

FlightLevel360 wrote:

United1 wrote:

FlightLevel360 wrote:

I hope they at least installed tablet holders.

On what the 753s? Yeah I believe the seats do have them...

That's good to hear. Now it's just a matter of speculation if these will be the B/E Aerospace Pinnacle on the 772A or the Meridian on the 73M9.

Pinnacle....Meridian won't be on a UA aircraft until UAs MAXes come online.

73G:
N24729 entered MIA 2782/28Feb for slimlines

763:
N652UA entered VQQ 2790/26Feb
764:
N65056 exited HKG 2814/28Feb with crew rest mod
N69063 entered HKG 2698/28Feb for crew rest mod

772:
N78017 sked to exit HKG 2825/1Mar

UAX:
E175: According to a Bloomberg article Mesa E175 N89349 was leased by Embraer as a demonstration for a potential Chinese buyer - Flown to VVO.

calpsafltskeds wrote:

73G:
N24729 entered MIA 2782/28Feb for slimlines

763:
N652UA entered VQQ 2790/26Feb
764:
N65056 exited HKG 2814/28Feb with crew rest mod
N69063 entered HKG 2698/28Feb for crew rest mod

772:
N78017 sked to exit HKG 2825/1Mar

UAX:
E175: According to a Bloomberg article Mesa E175 N89349 was leased by Embraer as a demonstration for a potential Chinese buyer - Flown to VVO.

Thought it odd they would use N89349 for a demo.. it’s been in service awhile and will look a bit worn torn. Whereas N87360 was delivered a couple months ago and has been parked at IAH since, as yet not flown a single revenue flight. (Something to do with the pilot scope clause... Apparently a few more 319/320/737s need to be in service before this last erj175 can be used) It’s litterly brand new and would be a perfect for a customer demo.

iahcsr wrote:

calpsafltskeds wrote:

73G:
N24729 entered MIA 2782/28Feb for slimlines

763:
N652UA entered VQQ 2790/26Feb
764:
N65056 exited HKG 2814/28Feb with crew rest mod
N69063 entered HKG 2698/28Feb for crew rest mod

772:
N78017 sked to exit HKG 2825/1Mar

UAX:
E175: According to a Bloomberg article Mesa E175 N89349 was leased by Embraer as a demonstration for a potential Chinese buyer - Flown to VVO.

Thought it odd they would use N89349 for a demo.. it’s been in service awhile and will look a bit worn torn. Whereas N87360 was delivered a couple months ago and has been parked at IAH since, as yet not flown a single revenue flight. (Something to do with the pilot scope clause... Apparently a few more 319/320/737s need to be in service before this last erj175 can be used) It’s litterly brand new and would be a perfect for a customer demo.

Maybe leasing out the old one will allow them to put the new one into service soon. Or perhaps there is just some slack in the spring schedule.

SFOtoORD wrote:

iahcsr wrote:

calpsafltskeds wrote:

73G:
N24729 entered MIA 2782/28Feb for slimlines

763:
N652UA entered VQQ 2790/26Feb
764:
N65056 exited HKG 2814/28Feb with crew rest mod
N69063 entered HKG 2698/28Feb for crew rest mod

772:
N78017 sked to exit HKG 2825/1Mar

UAX:
E175: According to a Bloomberg article Mesa E175 N89349 was leased by Embraer as a demonstration for a potential Chinese buyer - Flown to VVO.

Thought it odd they would use N89349 for a demo.. it’s been in service awhile and will look a bit worn torn. Whereas N87360 was delivered a couple months ago and has been parked at IAH since, as yet not flown a single revenue flight. (Something to do with the pilot scope clause... Apparently a few more 319/320/737s need to be in service before this last erj175 can be used) It’s litterly brand new and would be a perfect for a customer demo.

Maybe leasing out the old one will allow them to put the new one into service soon. Or perhaps there is just some slack in the spring schedule.

That’s possible, yes. Although 349 is supposed to be back flying in a week or so.

iahcsr wrote:

Thought it odd they would use N89349 for a demo.. it’s been in service awhile and will look a bit worn torn. Whereas N87360 was delivered a couple months ago and has been parked at IAH since, as yet not flown a single revenue flight. (Something to do with the pilot scope clause... Apparently a few more 319/320/737s need to be in service before this last erj175 can be used) It’s litterly brand new and would be a perfect for a customer demo.

319/320/737s are not tied to 76-seat scope limits. SkyWest and GoJet were taking CR7s off the UAX contract to accommodate E175s but I think that's all finished now. Sounds to me like a Mesa staffing issue, or there's just not enough flying for it yet.

iahcsr wrote:

calpsafltskeds wrote:

73G:
N24729 entered MIA 2782/28Feb for slimlines

763:
N652UA entered VQQ 2790/26Feb
764:
N65056 exited HKG 2814/28Feb with crew rest mod
N69063 entered HKG 2698/28Feb for crew rest mod

772:
N78017 sked to exit HKG 2825/1Mar

UAX:
E175: According to a Bloomberg article Mesa E175 N89349 was leased by Embraer as a demonstration for a potential Chinese buyer - Flown to VVO.

Thought it odd they would use N89349 for a demo.. it’s been in service awhile and will look a bit worn torn. Whereas N87360 was delivered a couple months ago and has been parked at IAH since, as yet not flown a single revenue flight. (Something to do with the pilot scope clause... Apparently a few more 319/320/737s need to be in service before this last erj175 can be used) It’s litterly brand new and would be a perfect for a customer demo.

N89349 isn’t even a year old..

Intersting chart from a United presentation on Tuesday, and it shows they're looking t the A330-800:

https://www.flightglobal.com/news/artic ... nt-446322/

Looks like their 25 year old A320's will be flying another 15 years, while the 753's get an early death.

1989worstyear wrote:

Intersting chart from a United presentation on Tuesday, and it shows they're looking t the A330-800:

https://www.flightglobal.com/news/artic ... nt-446322/

Looks like their 25 year old A320's will be flying another 15 years, while the 753's get an early death.

It’s an old chart, I saw that months ago. I highly doubt we’d see an A338 order from UA.

ikolkyo wrote:

1989worstyear wrote:

Intersting chart from a United presentation on Tuesday, and it shows they're looking t the A330-800:

https://www.flightglobal.com/news/artic ... nt-446322/

Looks like their 25 year old A320's will be flying another 15 years, while the 753's get an early death.

It’s an old chart, I saw that months ago. I highly doubt we’d see an A338 order from UA.

Thanks for clarifying - I checked their IR site and also saw it - thought it was from yesterday. Still, why are 753's going before their initial grunge-era A320's?

1989worstyear wrote:

ikolkyo wrote:

1989worstyear wrote:

Intersting chart from a United presentation on Tuesday, and it shows they're looking t the A330-800:

https://www.flightglobal.com/news/artic ... nt-446322/

Looks like their 25 year old A320's will be flying another 15 years, while the 753's get an early death.

It’s an old chart, I saw that months ago. I highly doubt we’d see an A338 order from UA.

Thanks for clarifying - I checked their IR site and also saw it - thought it was from yesterday. Still, why are 753's going before their initial grunge-era A320's?

753s aren’t going anywhere anytime soon as they are currently getting refitted. They will probably rn the last 757s UA will have in the fleet.

77W
N2645U B1 1Mar (15th of 18)

738:
N77520 entered RFD 2698/1Mar for slimlines - last unit - this will complete 738 slimline mod program
N87527 exited HOU 2776/1Mar with slimlines

764:
N66051 entered HKG 2822/28Feb for crew rest Mod
N67052 exited MCO 2793/28Feb

77W:
N2645U took first flight BOE 765/1Feb at PAE

Any idea when N72405 will finally get scimitars installed? It is the sole 737NG in the fleet without them.

772:
N773UA, after engine problem and cowling fell off 1175/13Feb, sked to ferry HNL-SFO 2690/5Mar

739 N72405 - searching for a activity and see there has only been 1 day off (in IAH) since 10/31/17 - otherwise has flown every day according to FlightAware - can't see farther back. I don't see photos with scimitars, but can't find the date of the last photo online.

Uniteds Laderman presented their NB/767 replacement strategy. Only conclusion can be Comac's are not considered, for the rest all options are open

https://www.ch-aviation.com/portal/news/64886-united-outlines-b757-b767-renewal-options

calpsafltskeds wrote:

772:
N773UA, after engine problem and cowling fell off 1175/13Feb, sked to ferry HNL-SFO 2690/5Mar

739 N72405 - searching for a activity and see there has only been 1 day off (in IAH) since 10/31/17 - otherwise has flown every day according to FlightAware - can't see farther back. I don't see photos with scimitars, but can't find the date of the last photo online.

There are pictures online taken as recent as Feb 2018 of N72405 with the old blended wingtip. It is definitely the last man standing without scimitars.

VC10er wrote:

I really do not know much about the 757-300. In fact I think I’ve only ever been on one a couple of times. I don’t think they are ever at EWR. I’ve seen plenty and they are remarkably long!

There used to be a few 753s at EWR a few years ago (even after the merger). The last daily one I recall seeing was a seasonal switch for an Aruba flight as an up gauge from the 739. I have seen a couple pop in and out on an ORD-EWR-ORD run, but that is really it. Other than that maybe an occasional team charter run.


As for N72405, it seems to be probably the only 737 that has somehow not cycled through EWR in the past four months as well.

OMG, I have a relative on flight 683/4Mar EWR-SAN.
Aircraft was about 30 mins late due to late arrival.
Pushed from the gate, then returned to the gate due to a weight and balance issue. Capt told pax they had to move 10 bags.
There were no empty seats in front of the wing, so it sounds like bags would have to be moved forward as people couldn't be. If weight needed to be moved aft, they could have moved about 10 non-revs to empty Y seats.
Plane pushed out again, then taxied, then returned to the gate a second time with Capt saying same reason.
Finally left about 1:50 late. ETA SAN was 1:01am
Near MCI, aircraft took a right turn and diverted to LAX. Leg down to SAN is shows cancelled.
Find out SAN is closed 0000-0500 for runway rehabilitation for a year except Saturday nights (Sunday mornings 0000-0500).
After several calls, the SAN Airport paging person knew of the diversion and he said buses were set up to come to SAN.

calpsafltskeds wrote:

OMG, I have a relative on flight 683/4Mar EWR-SAN.
Aircraft was about 30 mins late due to late arrival.
Pushed from the gate, then returned to the gate due to a weight and balance issue. Capt told pax they had to move 10 bags.
There were no empty seats in front of the wing, so it sounds like bags would have to be moved forward as people couldn't be. If weight needed to be moved aft, they could have moved about 10 non-revs to empty Y seats.
Plane pushed out again, then taxied, then returned to the gate a second time with Capt saying same reason.
Finally left about 1:50 late. ETA SAN was 1:01am
Near MCI, aircraft took a right turn and diverted to LAX. Leg down to SAN is shows cancelled.
Find out SAN is closed 0000-0500 for runway rehabilitation for a year except Saturday nights (Sunday mornings 0000-0500).
After several calls, the SAN Airport paging person knew of the diversion and he said buses were set up to come to SAN.

Let me guess... 739ER?

77H

If it were as easy as moving passengers they would have done it. I assume due to freight, they exceeded the max forward cargo weight with bags.

77H wrote:

calpsafltskeds wrote:

OMG, I have a relative on flight 683/4Mar EWR-SAN.
Aircraft was about 30 mins late due to late arrival.
Pushed from the gate, then returned to the gate due to a weight and balance issue. Capt told pax they had to move 10 bags.
There were no empty seats in front of the wing, so it sounds like bags would have to be moved forward as people couldn't be. If weight needed to be moved aft, they could have moved about 10 non-revs to empty Y seats.
Plane pushed out again, then taxied, then returned to the gate a second time with Capt saying same reason.
Finally left about 1:50 late. ETA SAN was 1:01am
Near MCI, aircraft took a right turn and diverted to LAX. Leg down to SAN is shows cancelled.
Find out SAN is closed 0000-0500 for runway rehabilitation for a year except Saturday nights (Sunday mornings 0000-0500).
After several calls, the SAN Airport paging person knew of the diversion and he said buses were set up to come to SAN.

Let me guess... 739ER?

77H

Correct! It landed at SAN within the last 30 mins.

https://flightaware.com/live/flight/N63820

My relative arrived via bus sometime around 4am.
Yes, it was a 739ER. Every seat was taken in front of the exits and maybe 10 seats scattered in Y were open.
So, the balance problem would seem to too much weight aft as pax could have been moved aft.
The captain said he took on fuel after the first pushback so they could go "faster". That could indicate they knew of the runway closure. Maybe they thought getting there after midnight they might be granted an exception.
The bins are large on the 739 and I can only think there was a planning error or loading error that was caught in the final numbers.

A319
N899UA The 11th exCZ planned as UA2770/7Mar LCQORD then UA547 ORDOMA.

United1 wrote:

gsg013 wrote:

Can someone please give an update of the widebody fleet and how many of each type have the new Polaris seats installed?

Many thanks in advance.

Sure...
77W 14 in service plus 4 more delivered this year all with Polaris
77E 55 in service (33 with IPTE and 22 with Diamond seats) to begin getting Polaris this year
772 19 in service (domestic configuration with IPTE J Class)
78J 3 to be delivered later this year with Polaris
789 25 with Diamond seats (23 in service and 2 about to be delivered/induction)
788 12 in service with Diamond seats
764 16 in service with Diamond seats
763 35 in service (5 with Polaris, 2 in mod for Polaris, 21 Diamond, 7 IPTE) 3 more to be delivered later this year

I'm booked in J on a 763 in April, UA 986 CDG-ORD. Seat map shows old 2-1-2 config. Anyone care to speculate on what my chances of getting Polaris are?

AAIL86 wrote:

United1 wrote:

gsg013 wrote:

Can someone please give an update of the widebody fleet and how many of each type have the new Polaris seats installed?

Many thanks in advance.

Sure...
77W 14 in service plus 4 more delivered this year all with Polaris
77E 55 in service (33 with IPTE and 22 with Diamond seats) to begin getting Polaris this year
772 19 in service (domestic configuration with IPTE J Class)
78J 3 to be delivered later this year with Polaris
789 25 with Diamond seats (23 in service and 2 about to be delivered/induction)
788 12 in service with Diamond seats
764 16 in service with Diamond seats
763 35 in service (5 with Polaris, 2 in mod for Polaris, 21 Diamond, 7 IPTE) 3 more to be delivered later this year

I'm booked in J on a 763 in April, UA 986 CDG-ORD. Seat map shows old 2-1-2 config. Anyone care to speculate on what my chances of getting Polaris are?

Probably about 50-50 as at least half should be in service by then!