Lots of doom and gloom written about MHT. That said, I think AA is actually growing at MHT. There is no reason UA shouldn't be, except for themselves. They don't have a focus city at BOS and little reason to want to send MHT flyers there because they may defect to other airlines.

LotsaRunway wrote:

Lots of doom and gloom written about MHT. That said, I think AA is actually growing at MHT. There is no reason UA shouldn't be, except for themselves. They don't have a focus city at BOS and little reason to want to send MHT flyers there because they may defect to other airlines.

That was my point: AA doesn't need to 'protect' itself at Logan in the same way that DL and B6 do. AA also has a critical mass at ORD similar to what UA has. For westbound business traffic, the MHT-ORD route was my bread-and-butter to places like LAX and SFO. AA can easily replace that at MHT, and they really should.

I don't know this for sure, but I think UA killed the MHT-ORD when they dropped to 50 seat RJs. Often late and uncomfortable when full for 2+ hours. Can't see business flyers wanting that. If AA came in with 70 seaters with some level of reliability, I think it would work.

I would think DL would do well with double daily MHT-ATL on A220s.

For MHT to say a positive. I would think a shift to IAD is a win for most flyers. EWR is much worse on delays in winter and all year really. IAD is the better place to connect for most people more of the time.

slcdeltarumd11 wrote:

For MHT to say a positive. I would think a shift to IAD is a win for most flyers. EWR is much worse on delays in winter and all year really. IAD is the better place to connect for most people more of the time.

Does the fact that the CRJ700 has a first class cabin help with the yields verse the EWR flights. Can’t forget about the cargo increase through Manchester getting two wide bodies a night sometime also Southwest mentoned over a 50% increase in cargo year to date.

According to this article Norwegian and Icelandair are now TSA Pre carriers. Interestingly the list of approved airports includes BDL. Every other airport on that list, other than SJU and STX are currently served by one of those two carriers. Could Norwegian be planning to return, or Icelandair planning to start?

https://thepointsguy.com/news/3-interna ... -precheck/

maximairways wrote:

According to this article Norwegian and Icelandair are now TSA Pre carriers. Interestingly the list of approved airports includes BDL. Every other airport on that list, other than SJU and STX are currently served by one of those two carriers. Could Norwegian be planning to return, or Icelandair planning to start?

https://thepointsguy.com/news/3-interna ... -precheck/

No, that's how this works.

MAH4546 wrote:

maximairways wrote:

According to this article Norwegian and Icelandair are now TSA Pre carriers. Interestingly the list of approved airports includes BDL. Every other airport on that list, other than SJU and STX are currently served by one of those two carriers. Could Norwegian be planning to return, or Icelandair planning to start?

https://thepointsguy.com/news/3-interna ... -precheck/

No, that's how this works.

What?

The list of airports are the following (aka not every airport that has TSA Pre in the US)

Austin (AUS)
Boston (BOS)
Bradley-Hartford (BDL)
Denver (DEN)
Fort Lauderdale (FLL)
Las Vegas (LAS)
Los Angeles (LAX)
Newark (EWR)
Newburgh (SWF)
Oakland (OAK)
Orlando (MCO)
Providence (PVD)
Seattle (SEA)
San Juan (SJU)
St. Croix (STX).

chrisnh wrote:

LotsaRunway wrote:

Lots of doom and gloom written about MHT. That said, I think AA is actually growing at MHT. There is no reason UA shouldn't be, except for themselves. They don't have a focus city at BOS and little reason to want to send MHT flyers there because they may defect to other airlines.

That was my point: AA doesn't need to 'protect' itself at Logan in the same way that DL and B6 do. AA also has a critical mass at ORD similar to what UA has. For westbound business traffic, the MHT-ORD route was my bread-and-butter to places like LAX and SFO. AA can easily replace that at MHT, and they really should.

Along with ORD you think AA would give LGA a go from Manchester? Looks like they do twice daily from Portland.

They may have started the application process back when they still served BDL

tomaheath wrote:

chrisnh wrote:

LotsaRunway wrote:

Lots of doom and gloom written about MHT. That said, I think AA is actually growing at MHT. There is no reason UA shouldn't be, except for themselves. They don't have a focus city at BOS and little reason to want to send MHT flyers there because they may defect to other airlines.

That was my point: AA doesn't need to 'protect' itself at Logan in the same way that DL and B6 do. AA also has a critical mass at ORD similar to what UA has. For westbound business traffic, the MHT-ORD route was my bread-and-butter to places like LAX and SFO. AA can easily replace that at MHT, and they really should.

Along with ORD you think AA would give LGA a go from Manchester? Looks like they do twice daily from Portland.

Slots must be tough to come by and unless they pull service from another city, it might be they are maxed out on slots.

Speaking of "Doom and gloom" at MHT I was just looking at recently-available September PAX numbers, and wow down -14% again vs '17. All it would take at this point is a stronger Canadian dollar and BTV would likely eclipse MHT, an absolutely outlandish thought not even 10 years ago

BTV is now in spitting distance of surpassing MHT (that PWM apparently has already done).

BTV enplanements 60,300; 121k total PAX (+19.5% vs LY) --> https://www.boarddocs.com/vt/burlington ... 101718.pdf

MHT total PAX 141k, -14.3% vs LY --> https://mk0flymanchestevtsp6.kinstacdn. ... t-2018.pdf

Very troubling trend for MHT not sure how they'll possibly be able to prevent the hemorrhaging of passengers. It's a vicious cycle, as the legacies pullout and downsize, Southwest then has less competition and jacks up prices (no longer an low-cost airline, at least definitely not out of MHT), which only drives more leakage to BOS.

I'll be flying out of ORH to JFK on B6 for the first time next month. Mostly as a curiosity (I've flown from the airport before in a GA context). The fare was $100 RT for a weekend trip. I wonder what the loads have been like.

dvincent wrote:

I'll be flying out of ORH to JFK on B6 for the first time next month. Mostly as a curiosity (I've flown from the airport before in a GA context). The fare was $100 RT for a weekend trip. I wonder what the loads have been like.

They have been running about 40-50%.

Have taken another look at the CLT-HVN Saturday only schedules starting this winter...time still have not changed, meaning a 7:30 am flight from CLT to HVN. That is only going to connect with redeyes coming in from the west coast and some painfully early flights coming out of Florida and the southeast (departures around 5 am). Not really setup to be a fair test of the market. Not sure what the strategy is there.

btvhopper wrote:

Southwest then has less competition and jacks up prices (no longer a low-cost airline, at least definitely not out of MHT), which only drives more leakage to BOS.

It is a troubling trend here at MHT, and even the most pessimistic among us felt things would turn around long ago.

But as far as Southwest is concerned, things aren't actually going the way you suggest. MHT-BWI on November 19 is $99; it's ranging from $101-$144 out of Boston. MHT-MDW for the same day is pricing at $115, but it's ranging from $132-$173 out of Boston.

chrisnh wrote:

btvhopper wrote:

Southwest then has less competition and jacks up prices (no longer a low-cost airline, at least definitely not out of MHT), which only drives more leakage to BOS.

It is a troubling trend here at MHT, and even the most pessimistic among us felt things would turn around long ago.

But as far as Southwest is concerned, things aren't actually going the way you suggest. MHT-BWI on November 19 is $99; it's ranging from $101-$144 out of Boston. MHT-MDW for the same day is pricing at $115, but it's ranging from $132-$173 out of Boston.

That’s quite a bit cheaper at Manchester verse Boston. What’s up with that you think?

dvincent wrote:

I'll be flying out of ORH to JFK on B6 for the first time next month. Mostly as a curiosity (I've flown from the airport before in a GA context). The fare was $100 RT for a weekend trip. I wonder what the loads have been like.

It’s Really bad. The flight times don’t help.

tomaheath wrote:

chrisnh wrote:

btvhopper wrote:

Southwest then has less competition and jacks up prices (no longer a low-cost airline, at least definitely not out of MHT), which only drives more leakage to BOS.

It is a troubling trend here at MHT, and even the most pessimistic among us felt things would turn around long ago.

But as far as Southwest is concerned, things aren't actually going the way you suggest. MHT-BWI on November 19 is $99; it's ranging from $101-$144 out of Boston. MHT-MDW for the same day is pricing at $115, but it's ranging from $132-$173 out of Boston.

That’s quite a bit cheaper at Manchester verse Boston. What’s up with that you think?

Southwest does reasonably well at MHT, but their overall numbers are falling, the worst case scenario for Manchester would be a large reduction in WN service as a result of falling pax numbers. Cutting down to 3x / day to BWI or cutting Florida flights would be near apocalyptic for MHT.

The analysis on MHT is shocking but not unexpected. Their fares seem to just be shooting up on non-florida routes.

The legacies seem all too interested in funneling passenger to BTV or BOS. Prices are often not even on the same planet to places like DEN, SLC, LA, LAS, SFO

To be fair to BTV you have to consider Plattsburgh. It's the same market it's the ULCC airport where you go to fly to Florida. If Plattsburgh didn't get a surge of NY state funding for the airport BTV would be way past MHT already in numbers.

August 2018 Bradley International Airport Passengers-

Total Passengers-

August 2018 - 634,691 +6.2%
August 2017 - 597,577

Total Passengers YTD (January - August)

2018- 4,463,977 +3.6%
2017- 4,307,235

Domestic by Airline August 2018-

American- 146,481
Southwest- 136,251
Delta- 127,227
United- 84,230
jetBlue- 75,242
Spirit- 44,741
Onejet- 1,382

International by Airline August 2018-

Aer Lingus- 10,317 (approx. 94% load)
Air Canada- 7,597
Delta (CUN flight)- 1,223

August 2018 total International Passengers- 19,137

HVNandrew wrote:

Have taken another look at the CLT-HVN Saturday only schedules starting this winter...time still have not changed, meaning a 7:30 am flight from CLT to HVN. That is only going to connect with redeyes coming in from the west coast and some painfully early flights coming out of Florida and the southeast (departures around 5 am). Not really setup to be a fair test of the market. Not sure what the strategy is there.

I think AA is making the test due to having spare aircraft as many routes have reduced frequencies on Saturdays. Advance bookings on the Dec 22 2018 flights are quite good being 2 months away, my concern is the use of a CRJ-200, the least efficient off short runways in the CRJ series. Being winter with cold temperatures, that should help takeoffs from HVN. The flight should go daily fairly soon and hopefully use a CRJ-700 or E-175. and the HVN jet bridge is close to being in working order. UA is increasing its RJ flights to small cities such as HHH, I expect UA to begin HVN-IAD flights in 2019. There is a large catchment area in the New Haven metro area that could support more flights from HVN and with the increase in CRJ-700's at PSA and more E-175's being added to the majors fleet's, HVN could become the airport of first choice for area travelers which is long overdue.

HVNandrew wrote:

Have taken another look at the CLT-HVN Saturday only schedules starting this winter...time still have not changed, meaning a 7:30 am flight from CLT to HVN. That is only going to connect with redeyes coming in from the west coast and some painfully early flights coming out of Florida and the southeast (departures around 5 am). Not really setup to be a fair test of the market. Not sure what the strategy is there.

I think AA is making the test due to having spare aircraft as many routes have reduced frequencies on Saturdays. Advance bookings on the Dec 22 2018 flights are quite good being 2 months away, my concern is the use of a CRJ-200, the least efficient off short runways in the CRJ series. Being winter with cold temperatures, that should help takeoffs from HVN. The flight should go daily fairly soon and hopefully use a CRJ-700 or E-175. and the HVN jet bridge is close to being in working order. UA is increasing its RJ flights to small cities such as HHH, I expect UA to begin HVN-IAD flights in 2019. There is a large catchment area in the New Haven metro area that could support more flights from HVN and with the increase in CRJ-700's at PSA and more E-175's being added to the majors fleet's, HVN could become the airport of first choice for area travelers which is long overdue.

slcdeltarumd11 wrote:

The analysis on MHT is shocking but not unexpected. Their fares seem to just be shooting up on non-florida routes.

The legacies seem all too interested in funneling passenger to BTV or BOS. Prices are often not even on the same planet to places like DEN, SLC, LA, LAS, SFO

To be fair to BTV you have to consider Plattsburgh. It's the same market it's the ULCC airport where you go to fly to Florida. If Plattsburgh didn't get a surge of NY state funding for the airport BTV would be way past MHT already in numbers.

I think the Plattsburgh bubble has burst a bit. Last year was down from their peak a couple of years ago, and this year is down 20% YTD. I know the Canadian dollar is down, but it's close to what it was two years ago, and plenty of Canadians come to BTV also, so I don't think that is all of it. And on top of that, now F9 is at BTV...

If you want to know how a local economy is doing, you just have to look at the local airpot. MHT is dying because the local economy around it is dying. Most of the business in NH is tied into Boston, with perks out of BOS. Most of the people buying houses in southern NH are boarder hoppers from MA, and they keep their ties to MA which means using BOS. Simple economics tell you that when airlines resort to all RJ's, the market is virtually non existent, and with less seats, there is less competition and there fore higher prices.

The last hope MHT really has right now to turn things around, is to market itself to the European LCC international carriers. Ryan Air, Easy Jet, WOW, Norwegian, perhaps even Aer Lingus or Icelandic. MHT changed it name to the Manchester/Boston regional airport (because ten years ago it was stealing so many passengers from BOS the MassPort was pissed), this is the only viable stagey, to market itself as the international alternate to BOS. On the other side of the pond, this is pretty much how the marketing works, they say London, while it may be a 45 minute drive to the outskirts of the city.

Unfortunately, that will be expensive as a customs facility would have to be built, the only hope MHT has of recapturing anything it was 10 years ago, has to be drastic. Unless there are some major improvements in our local economy here...

Avi8r747 wrote:

If you want to know how a local economy is doing, you just have to look at the local airpot. MHT is dying because the local economy around it is dying. Most of the business in NH is tied into Boston, with perks out of BOS. Most of the people buying houses in southern NH are boarder hoppers from MA, and they keep their ties to MA which means using BOS. Simple economics tell you that when airlines resort to all RJ's, the market is virtually non existent, and with less seats, there is less competition and there fore higher prices.

The last hope MHT really has right now to turn things around, is to market itself to the European LCC international carriers. Ryan Air, Easy Jet, WOW, Norwegian, perhaps even Aer Lingus or Icelandic. MHT changed it name to the Manchester/Boston regional airport (because ten years ago it was stealing so many passengers from BOS the MassPort was pissed), this is the only viable stagey, to market itself as the international alternate to BOS. On the other side of the pond, this is pretty much how the marketing works, they say London, while it may be a 45 minute drive to the outskirts of the city.

Unfortunately, that will be expensive as a customs facility would have to be built, the only hope MHT has of recapturing anything it was 10 years ago, has to be drastic. Unless there are some major improvements in our local economy here...

1) I wouldn't exactly say the economy of southern NH is struggling, Manchester- Nashua-Concord has a strong economy by the standards of northern New England the problem is really just lack of options and proximity to BOS

2) Ryanair and Easyjet have no plans to fly TATL, WOW is retreating and regrouping under mounting debt. MAYBE Norwegian could be coaxed in, but it's hard to make your case to any airline when your pax numbers are 1/3 of what they were 10 years ago.

MHT, having to split the pie with PSM, PWM, BTV and a bit to ORH is as significant to me as the perpetual bleed to BOS. Those other airports were not the factor to any degree several years ago like they are now. Southwest plucking successful flights away to reinstall the capacity at BOS naturally also, was a turning point regardless that WN had to drop fares and face a battering from BOS competition. The seats are gone and both scenarios seemed unfortunately, to happen around the same time.

tphuang wrote:

dvincent wrote:

I'll be flying out of ORH to JFK on B6 for the first time next month. Mostly as a curiosity (I've flown from the airport before in a GA context). The fare was $100 RT for a weekend trip. I wonder what the loads have been like.

It’s Really bad. The flight times don’t help.

They're perfect for me, as they allow for two full days in a weekend or even a single day trip. I'm used to taking the first train in and the last train out from NYP. I'm most likely a minority though.

But I think if it was 7 AM departure and 9-10 PM return it would be a better schedule for most.

cheapgreek wrote:

HVNandrew wrote:

Have taken another look at the CLT-HVN Saturday only schedules starting this winter...time still have not changed, meaning a 7:30 am flight from CLT to HVN. That is only going to connect with redeyes coming in from the west coast and some painfully early flights coming out of Florida and the southeast (departures around 5 am). Not really setup to be a fair test of the market. Not sure what the strategy is there.

I think AA is making the test due to having spare aircraft as many routes have reduced frequencies on Saturdays. Advance bookings on the Dec 22 2018 flights are quite good being 2 months away, my concern is the use of a CRJ-200, the least efficient off short runways in the CRJ series. Being winter with cold temperatures, that should help takeoffs from HVN. The flight should go daily fairly soon and hopefully use a CRJ-700 or E-175. and the HVN jet bridge is close to being in working order. UA is increasing its RJ flights to small cities such as HHH, I expect UA to begin HVN-IAD flights in 2019. There is a large catchment area in the New Haven metro area that could support more flights from HVN and with the increase in CRJ-700's at PSA and more E-175's being added to the majors fleet's, HVN could become the airport of first choice for area travelers which is long overdue.

The flight out to CLT should do fine, it's the flight into HVN which makes very little sense. I don't know how it could go up with more than a few handfuls of people in it given the extremely limited connection opportunities.

Nothing has stopped UA from running IAD flights to date; I don't know what would suddenly change to make the market attractive for them.

HVNandrew wrote:

cheapgreek wrote:

HVNandrew wrote:

Have taken another look at the CLT-HVN Saturday only schedules starting this winter...time still have not changed, meaning a 7:30 am flight from CLT to HVN. That is only going to connect with redeyes coming in from the west coast and some painfully early flights coming out of Florida and the southeast (departures around 5 am). Not really setup to be a fair test of the market. Not sure what the strategy is there.

I think AA is making the test due to having spare aircraft as many routes have reduced frequencies on Saturdays. Advance bookings on the Dec 22 2018 flights are quite good being 2 months away, my concern is the use of a CRJ-200, the least efficient off short runways in the CRJ series. Being winter with cold temperatures, that should help takeoffs from HVN. The flight should go daily fairly soon and hopefully use a CRJ-700 or E-175. and the HVN jet bridge is close to being in working order. UA is increasing its RJ flights to small cities such as HHH, I expect UA to begin HVN-IAD flights in 2019. There is a large catchment area in the New Haven metro area that could support more flights from HVN and with the increase in CRJ-700's at PSA and more E-175's being added to the majors fleet's, HVN could become the airport of first choice for area travelers which is long overdue.

The flight out to CLT should do fine, it's the flight into HVN which makes very little sense. I don't know how it could go up with more than a few handfuls of people in it given the extremely limited connection opportunities.

Nothing has stopped UA from running IAD flights to date; I don't know what would suddenly change to make the market attractive for them.

Recent articles say that UA is increasing service to small cities and its not quite a year since AA started CRJ HVN-PHL service and its been a success, many flights sold out or near sold out. UA is also increasing CRJ-200's numbers in the fleet. UA does not want to lose market share to AA and up till now the runway has been an issue, but with the right aircraft, some new routes can work. HVN for years has had prop service and some travelers avoid props resulting in reduced demand. I am hoping for the runway issue to be decided in HVN's favor then I expect other carriers with hubs further away to start service. The New Haven metro area population is 862k and Bridgeport market is closest to HVN adding another large market and going out to as far as Old Saybrook adds even more potential passengers in being closer to HVN than BDL.

http://aviationweek.com/commercial-avia ... th-targets

Assuming that Flightaware is accurate, BTV had 6 mainline aircraft RON last night (2xA320, 1xA319, 1xB738, 2xE190) One of these looks like an unusual add for UA, but I believe the others are more or less the regular crowd now. I know this isn't much for some of the airports in this thread, but it's quite impressive for BTV compared to a few years ago when it was a lone JetBlue E190 and occasionally a Delta MD88.

Fex180 wrote:

1) I wouldn't exactly say the economy of southern NH is struggling, Manchester- Nashua-Concord has a strong economy by the standards of northern New England the problem is really just lack of options and proximity to BOS

It's all relative. Based on this chart the future doesn't seem terribly bright. Most of the growth is coming from low wage jobs. Healthcare has been the only bright spot but with the ACA being thrown out that too will likely result in loss of jobs.
http://nhfpi.org/wp-content/uploads/201 ... ectors.png

I said this before: MHT should have built a CBP facility and marketed itself for TATL flights 10 YEARS AGO. It's too late now.

It looks like F9 is going daily PWM-DEN starting in May , and bringing back RDU 3x weekly (Mon-Wed-Fri)

Could potentially see new routes announced as well. ORD, ATL, CVG, FLL and even LAS are all possibilities from PWM.

It also looks like Frontier is offering PSM-ATL starting in December, which seems odd to me.

NickolayAv wrote:

PVD757 wrote:

Regional Sky announced PVD-YHU today. Starts November 5th. Weekdays.

YHU-PVD 0700-0810
PVD-YHU 0930-1040

Will be operated by a Beech 1900C with 19 seats.

Now delayed until undecided date in 2019........

Fex180 wrote:

It looks like F9 is going daily PWM-DEN starting in May , and bringing back RDU 3x weekly (Mon-Wed-Fri)

Could potentially see new routes announced as well. ORD, ATL, CVG, FLL and even LAS are all possibilities from PWM.

It also looks like Frontier is offering PSM-ATL starting in December, which seems odd to me.

I'm not surprised that F9 is adjusting the seasonal frequencies of its flights. PWM does very well during the warmer season and less well when the snow flies.

Regarding F9 PSM-ATL? Doubt it will last. Unless F9 has identified a travel void connection between the two locations, it smells of a route that was thrown against the wall to see if it could stick. Need to stick to PSM-Florida IMHO.

MO11 wrote:

NickolayAv wrote:

PVD757 wrote:

Regional Sky announced PVD-YHU today. Starts November 5th. Weekdays.

YHU-PVD 0700-0810
PVD-YHU 0930-1040

Will be operated by a Beech 1900C with 19 seats.

Now delayed until undecided date in 2019........

Not surprised, from the beginning, it looked like there was way too little time to launch the route.

Fex180 wrote:

It looks like F9 is going daily PWM-DEN starting in May , and bringing back RDU 3x weekly (Mon-Wed-Fri)

Could potentially see new routes announced as well. ORD, ATL, CVG, FLL and even LAS are all possibilities from PWM.

It also looks like Frontier is offering PSM-ATL starting in December, which seems odd to me.

PVD-ATL didn't last long.

Fex180 wrote:

Southwest does reasonably well at MHT, but their overall numbers are falling, the worst case scenario for Manchester would be a large reduction in WN service as a result of falling pax numbers. Cutting down to 3x / day to BWI or cutting Florida flights would be near apocalyptic for MHT.

I didn't see this posting before, but it smells more like competitive wishful thinking than a likely possibility. That's cool though. It's good to be proud of what you have and want it to exceed others. But demand for WN has not really dropped much at MHT in recent years, but rather larger marketing and competitive forces are in high gear at WN and at BOS. Numbers at MHT have dropped because there are cheaper flights out of BOS than what WN has been willing to offer at MHT. Loads at MHT tend to be very good and the flights are rarely found in the bargain bin. As a result, there is little that would drive WN to drastically cut flights at MHT, but every time competition increases at BOS, WN has to make a decision to either match at MHT or not match and know that it will result in more passengers defecting to BOS. When they chose not to match, they then decide if they need to cut. Boarding numbers at MHT plummet every time a fight is cut as opposed to dropping before a cut is made. WN can control the market at MHT but is nothing more than a bit player at BOS. They can raise fares and cut frequencies to drive up yields at MHT all they want, but passengers will go to BOS to fly a competitor, so pushing it too far in this direction just pushes passengers away from themselves. Conversely, they could add flights and drop fares to equal those offered at BOS and it would fill more seats, but cut yields. They have the market power to decide this at MHT, but not at BOS. I understand why they need to be at BOS, but I don't think it's going as well as they envisioned when they entered. They have injured themselves a bit by trying to make themselves big at BOS by not matching fares and maintaining options at MHT and PVD where they were strong and had market control. Some markets out of BOS have been good adds, but others appear to be loss leaders done more to compete. I think when WN comes to accept who they are at BOS and focuses on a more balanced plan out of BOS-PVD-MHT, WN will do better in the region. If WN went to nothing but 3xday BWI out of MHT then WN would essentially be giving up on a market that it had nearly full control over and handing most of their passengers to competitors at BOS. Personally, I think MHT is ready to bottom out and begin a modest rebound. I see more adds in the future than cuts, but I suspect there will be both. AA is already growing at MHT. WN has to decide if they want to keep backing up or be a stronger regional competitor.

Great points made about WN and MHT. I never really got their insistence in going to BOS. What they therefore insisted upon was a tougher competitive environment and longer taxi and wait times. Both of which impact yields and their ‘legendary’ 20-minute turn times. They are fighting issues at Logan they’d never have to worry about at MHT.

LotsaRunway wrote:

They have injured themselves a bit by trying to make themselves big at BOS by not matching fares and maintaining options at MHT and PVD where they were strong and had market control. Some markets out of BOS have been good adds, but others appear to be loss leaders done more to compete

They've also made it so people like me have discovered viable ways to utilize Logan, when we never would have done so had WN made more attractive options available at MHT. Just did a trip where I used FlightLine and they were cheaper than parking off site at MHT never mind Logan. If Boston Express fits your schedule they're even cheaper. Then add in the competitive fares and nonstop flights at Logan and one wonders why we'd consider MHT.

LotsaRunway wrote:

I think when WN comes to accept who they are at BOS and focuses on a more balanced plan out of BOS-PVD-MHT, WN will do better in the region. If WN went to nothing but 3xday BWI out of MHT then WN would essentially be giving up on a market that it had nearly full control over and handing most of their passengers to competitors at BOS. Personally, I think MHT is ready to bottom out and begin a modest rebound. I see more adds in the future than cuts, but I suspect there will be both. AA is already growing at MHT. WN has to decide if they want to keep backing up or be a stronger regional competitor.

I agree with the earlier comments, this is a very good post.

LotsaRunway wrote:

Fex180 wrote:

Southwest does reasonably well at MHT, but their overall numbers are falling, the worst case scenario for Manchester would be a large reduction in WN service as a result of falling pax numbers. Cutting down to 3x / day to BWI or cutting Florida flights would be near apocalyptic for MHT.

I didn't see this posting before, but it smells more like competitive wishful thinking than a likely possibility. That's cool though. It's good to be proud of what you have and want it to exceed others. But demand for WN has not really dropped much at MHT in recent years, but rather larger marketing and competitive forces are in high gear at WN and at BOS. Numbers at MHT have dropped because there are cheaper flights out of BOS than what WN has been willing to offer at MHT. Loads at MHT tend to be very good and the flights are rarely found in the bargain bin. As a result, there is little that would drive WN to drastically cut flights at MHT, but every time competition increases at BOS, WN has to make a decision to either match at MHT or not match and know that it will result in more passengers defecting to BOS. When they chose not to match, they then decide if they need to cut. Boarding numbers at MHT plummet every time a fight is cut as opposed to dropping before a cut is made. WN can control the market at MHT but is nothing more than a bit player at BOS. They can raise fares and cut frequencies to drive up yields at MHT all they want, but passengers will go to BOS to fly a competitor, so pushing it too far in this direction just pushes passengers away from themselves. Conversely, they could add flights and drop fares to equal those offered at BOS and it would fill more seats, but cut yields. They have the market power to decide this at MHT, but not at BOS. I understand why they need to be at BOS, but I don't think it's going as well as they envisioned when they entered. They have injured themselves a bit by trying to make themselves big at BOS by not matching fares and maintaining options at MHT and PVD where they were strong and had market control. Some markets out of BOS have been good adds, but others appear to be loss leaders done more to compete. I think when WN comes to accept who they are at BOS and focuses on a more balanced plan out of BOS-PVD-MHT, WN will do better in the region. If WN went to nothing but 3xday BWI out of MHT then WN would essentially be giving up on a market that it had nearly full control over and handing most of their passengers to competitors at BOS. Personally, I think MHT is ready to bottom out and begin a modest rebound. I see more adds in the future than cuts, but I suspect there will be both. AA is already growing at MHT. WN has to decide if they want to keep backing up or be a stronger regional competitor.

Great post well put together. Thank you. Tho small increase WN has been sending more 800s and MAXs here lately I believe there’s was a news article stating that WN freight was up 65% year to date. Your point about price is correct as well I recently traveled to LAS and AA was significantly cheaper than WN if I remember correctly UA and DL was cheaper as well. I had to head to BOS today getting there was fine minus the pouring rain took about an hour from Manchester once arriving I found the Central Parking garage full I ended up taking the very last spot in the terminal E parking lot. Took two hours to get back to Manchester 20+\- MPH all the way to route 495 no construction or accidents just stopped. I can leave my house park in the long term lot clear sercurity and be at the gate 45 minutes. My “plan B” if flights get canceled or delayed that I miss a flight to or from Manchester is BOS and using flightline bus service.

RE BTV Mainline:

What do people think BTV's next either destination is and/or mainline route?

Mainline wise, would love to see CLT get mainline AA, maybe MIA down the road? DL bringing back MSP maybe on the A220?

I think F9 beats UA to the DEN punch and I can't see UA trying IAH.

If F9's MCO route works, like I said I can see DEN, TPA, RSW type additions.

BTVB6Flyer wrote:

RE BTV Mainline:

What do people think BTV's next either destination is and/or mainline route?

Mainline wise, would love to see CLT get mainline AA, maybe MIA down the road? DL bringing back MSP maybe on the A220?

I think F9 beats UA to the DEN punch and I can't see UA trying IAH.

If F9's MCO route works, like I said I can see DEN, TPA, RSW type additions.

MSP seems like a solid possibility for BTV, PWM and PVD, I also wouldn't be surprised if F9 tries BTV-DEN and other Florida points, although any major Frontier expansion might push JetBlue away as it did with PWM.

Fex180 wrote:

BTVB6Flyer wrote:

RE BTV Mainline:

What do people think BTV's next either destination is and/or mainline route?

Mainline wise, would love to see CLT get mainline AA, maybe MIA down the road? DL bringing back MSP maybe on the A220?

I think F9 beats UA to the DEN punch and I can't see UA trying IAH.

If F9's MCO route works, like I said I can see DEN, TPA, RSW type additions.

MSP seems like a solid possibility for BTV, PWM and PVD, I also wouldn't be surprised if F9 tries BTV-DEN and other Florida points, although any major Frontier expansion might push JetBlue away as it did with PWM.

These are the top cities without current or planned direct service in passenger counts from the DOT reports, in approximate descending order:

San Francisco
Denver
LA
Miami (I think this includes Ft Lauderdale)
Tampa
Seattle
Ft Myers
Raleigh/Durham
Minneapolis/St Paul

None of these appear to have anywhere close to the numbers to support a daily flight, so I would agree that F9 to DEN something like 2x per week might be the most likely. UA already flies to two hubs so I'm not sure DEN would make sense for them. Likewise MSP for DL.

AA to CLT is still CRJ-9s, so it would probably be a stretch to go mainline there. It doesn't look like they fly any E190s from CLT and those are supposed to be leaving over the next year or two.

If traffic keeps growing, though, it will be interesting to see if anyone tries something different with the A220.

I hope F9 is good for BTV, but not if it means losing B6.

chrisnh wrote:

Great points made about WN and MHT. I never really got their insistence in going to BOS. What they therefore insisted upon was a tougher competitive environment and longer taxi and wait times. Both of which impact yields and their ‘legendary’ 20-minute turn times. They are fighting issues at Logan they’d never have to worry about at MHT.

Once WN makes the move into the AA gates on the UA and NK side of Terminal B come June 2019, I'd imagine their turn times would improve as they should mostly have shorter taxi times. WN entered BOS because their business travelers demanded it. Same reason they went into DCA and IAD for example.


How do the Patriots handle their charter flights from PVD? Does the 763 board at a regular gate? Or are the players, coaches and staff bused directly to/from the plane?

mjgbtv wrote:

Fex180 wrote:

BTVB6Flyer wrote:

RE BTV Mainline:

What do people think BTV's next either destination is and/or mainline route?

Mainline wise, would love to see CLT get mainline AA, maybe MIA down the road? DL bringing back MSP maybe on the A220?

I think F9 beats UA to the DEN punch and I can't see UA trying IAH.

If F9's MCO route works, like I said I can see DEN, TPA, RSW type additions.

MSP seems like a solid possibility for BTV, PWM and PVD, I also wouldn't be surprised if F9 tries BTV-DEN and other Florida points, although any major Frontier expansion might push JetBlue away as it did with PWM.

These are the top cities without current or planned direct service in passenger counts from the DOT reports, in approximate descending order:

San Francisco
Denver
LA
Miami (I think this includes Ft Lauderdale)
Tampa
Seattle
Ft Myers
Raleigh/Durham
Minneapolis/St Paul

None of these appear to have anywhere close to the numbers to support a daily flight, so I would agree that F9 to DEN something like 2x per week might be the most likely. UA already flies to two hubs so I'm not sure DEN would make sense for them. Likewise MSP for DL.

AA to CLT is still CRJ-9s, so it would probably be a stretch to go mainline there. It doesn't look like they fly any E190s from CLT and those are supposed to be leaving over the next year or two.

If traffic keeps growing, though, it will be interesting to see if anyone tries something different with the A220.

I hope F9 is good for BTV, but not if it means losing B6.

Wow, surprised SFO is higher than one of the FL routes. And while CLT may be CR9's, I never expected PHL to be mainline so CLT can still be possible.

mgbtv - Maybe you can answer this, but as someone now removed from VT, but seeing the statistics, VT isn't really gaining population nor is the Canadian dollar in our favor travel wise, just curious where this demand and up-tick in travel is coming from.

BTVB6Flyer wrote:

mjgbtv wrote:

Fex180 wrote:

MSP seems like a solid possibility for BTV, PWM and PVD, I also wouldn't be surprised if F9 tries BTV-DEN and other Florida points, although any major Frontier expansion might push JetBlue away as it did with PWM.

These are the top cities without current or planned direct service in passenger counts from the DOT reports, in approximate descending order:

San Francisco
Denver
LA
Miami (I think this includes Ft Lauderdale)
Tampa
Seattle
Ft Myers
Raleigh/Durham
Minneapolis/St Paul

None of these appear to have anywhere close to the numbers to support a daily flight, so I would agree that F9 to DEN something like 2x per week might be the most likely. UA already flies to two hubs so I'm not sure DEN would make sense for them. Likewise MSP for DL.

AA to CLT is still CRJ-9s, so it would probably be a stretch to go mainline there. It doesn't look like they fly any E190s from CLT and those are supposed to be leaving over the next year or two.

If traffic keeps growing, though, it will be interesting to see if anyone tries something different with the A220.

I hope F9 is good for BTV, but not if it means losing B6.

Wow, surprised SFO is higher than one of the FL routes. And while CLT may be CR9's, I never expected PHL to be mainline so CLT can still be possible.

mgbtv - Maybe you can answer this, but as someone now removed from VT, but seeing the statistics, VT isn't really gaining population nor is the Canadian dollar in our favor travel wise, just curious where this demand and up-tick in travel is coming from.

The SF number is the metro area. I believe for the report that also includes OAK and SJC since I didn't see them listed separately, so that doesn't compare directly to some of the FL cities.

I am not really sure where the up-tick at BTV is coming from. I can think of a lot of things that could contribute such as the local and national economy, better access from Quebec, summer tourism and decent ski seasons, but I don't see any of those (or even all combined) making the sudden difference that there has been in the last year or so. The airport talks about the airlines increasing capacity, especially with more mainline aircraft, but it seems like there must have been increased demand to incent the airlines to upgauge. It also looks like traffic at PBG is down a bit, so that could be people choosing BTV instead. Maybe it's just a combination of incremental increases reaching a critical mass and things snowballing from there.

How do the Patriots handle their charter flights from PVD? Does the 763 board at a regular gate? Or are the players, coaches and staff bused directly to/from the plane?[/quote]

The Patriots board directly from the buses to the plane by air stairs. They used to board at the Northwest ramp but they now keep the plane parked at the south end of airport where Amazon parked when they operated at PVD.

dvincent wrote:

I'll be flying out of ORH to JFK on B6 for the first time next month. Mostly as a curiosity (I've flown from the airport before in a GA context). The fare was $100 RT for a weekend trip. I wonder what the loads have been like.

Did you take the flight yet? If so how was it?

RE: Growth at BTV

The growth at BTV over the last 12-18 months is almost entirely driven by MHT's struggles. They've gained market share, a lot more mainline (upgrades to A320s and 738s/739s) to ATL, ORD and EWR has driven ticket prices down, often significantly lower than MHT's legacy carriers, which has allowed BTV to gain market share.

The leakage to MHT was previously every corner of Vermont, even Chittenden County (nearly 2.5hr drive), where as now BTV is beginning to pick up the Upper Valley market, which is halfway between the two cities. A tremendous turnaround but it should be noted the market itself is not growing so I'm not sure how much higher the ceiling is.

Still a lot of leakage to BOS for transatlantic flights and business travels who demand direct service to cities like DFW and SFO; not sure what can be done about that.