BDL - OCT 18 Update
Next up. BDL....https://drive.google.com/open?id=0B61t8 ... VRWdmc5SkE
Data still goes back to 2014 where appropriate.
Highlight: October for BDL has grown each of the last 4 years from 500k in 2014 to 583k in 2018, which is 16.7% over the period and 2.1% from 17 to 18 (572k to 583K), Inbound grew 1.6% to 289K and Outbound grew 2.5% to 295K Trends
AA - dropped 0.7% or around 1K and is about 1,400 lower than it's 2014 number, big switch from Republic to Mainline between 17 and 18 of 17K pax.
DL - dropped 2.5% or around 3K, taking them back to their 2014 number, uptick in Endeavor against Mainline flying.
International also dropped 9.4% due to the exit of Norwegian but EI posted 9.9% gains over the prior year, 16 more people found their way on to AC..
B6 - after a 10k lift in 2017, B6 reversed 7K of that in 2018 for a 9.6% drop, they are back to 2015 levels at this point.On the upside:
UA - increased by 1.8% or 1,300 pax 17 to 18 and a whopping 84% over the past 4 years with a massive push away from regionals to mainline flying (149% increase) Mesa is really the only regional of any substance, although Go Jet is picking up the pace.
NK - almost doubled to 41.5K vs 20.9k pax as their expansion continues a pace
WN - increased by 2.3% or 2,800 pax, which reversed a previous trend downwards since 2014.
In terms of market share:
B6 slipped to #5 at the expense of UA, and trailed by 1.2% in the month.
AA is still #1, but their lead is reducing and although have a over WN, which next year could be overtaken if the trend were to be continued.
Highlight: October YTD for BDL has grown each of the last 4 years from 4.9m in 2014 to 5.5m in 2018 (13.4% increase), including a 3.7% uplift in 2017 to 2018 (185K). Inbound increased by 100k (3.7%) and Outbound by 97K (3.6%) for a total increase of 196K for YTD overall.
AA - YTD AA are down less than 1% (11K), but they are 5.1% or 72K down since 2014 with little sign of that trend reversing.
DL - dropped 1.6% or around 17K, and while they are still 25K up since 2014, they are well down from their height of 2015.
International also dropped 5.6%, (8.2K) due to the exit of Norwegian (11.1K) and a 1.6% drop in EI (1.6k) against a 6.4% uptick in AC (3.1K), noting that October for EI was an increase, so we could see the YTD drop wiped out in November if the trend continues.
On the upside:
UA - increased by 9.6% or 56,000 pax 17 to 18 and a significant 57.4% increase over the past 4 years (234K) with growth (net 134% increase) coming from mainline flying from 199k to 466k during that period, with some net reduction in regional carriers.
NK - are up to close to 400K and will blast through that number when November is released and continue to maintain their close to 7% market share as a result.
B6 - are down year over year by 3.4% or 25K allowing UA to close the gap, but there is still 55K gap at this point, that said since 2014 pax have grown by 22%.
WN - WN continue to reverse and are down YTD by 4.6% (62,000), there is little danger to their current position, but the direction is definitely down with a 10% decrease since 2014. (143K)
In terms of market share:
YTD, the only big mover was WN that lost it's #1 position to AA and is now behind by 1.2% share of all pax, although with AA also decreasing, its own share has reduced to just over 24%. Spirit as noted above has taken a 7% share, and UA has increased by 0.6% at the expense of the others.
Rolling 12 months at the end of October is 6.6m pax which is 3.8% up on this time last year (241K up), end of year is still looking at just a touch under 6.7m for the year, which compares to 6.4m in 2017 and under 5.9m in 2014, I don't see anything major that's going to change that at this point. It's interesting to note that inbound and outbound are increasing at about the same rate, which would be right given the O&D nature of the airport
Estimates for Pax Counts for Year End 2018
AA - 1.6m (continued losses in Nov/Dec)
DL - 1.25m
UA - 775k
B6 - 830k
WN - 1.55m
Int - 150K
Approx guess: 6.65m
As ever, any questions, let me know.
That feeling when you sit at the end of a runway, brakes are released and the raw power takes over. Now that is a thing of beauty and it never gets old.