pwm2txlhopper wrote:

Portlander wrote:

Portland is much larger than a typical city of around 70,000, especially when it comes to it's downtown core. It's land area of only 22 square miles will always limit the population count unless we annex South Portland which sadly will never happen. Portland's population peaked at 78,000 by the end of WWII and the transformation during the last 40 years is impressive and you will not find the same declining port city you once remembered.

I’ve spent 36 of 38 years here. There’s 65,000 in Portland. The same as it was 40 years ago. The only thing that changed is that Portland gentrified and Maine people can’t afford to live there anymore. Nobody comes aside from May-Sept.The Port is hardly a working port these days. Fishing is dead for the most part aside from lobstering. There’s a small tourist area of downtown, but that’s only a small part of Portland The economy is far from thriving here. And, Maine is one if the least business friendly states. The limited business and leisure traveler are well served.

Mainers like to think it as a city, but it’s really just a large town. Go 10 miles or less and you’re in the woods. Look down at it from 35,000 feet and it’s just a peninsula surrounded by woods.

Seems like you have a pretty negative view of Portland and Maine in general. I've lived in Portland for 7 years now and even in that short time I've seen quite a lot of change. The population of Cumberland and York counties have actually gone up quite a bit in the past 40 years, and the population of the city proper isn't truly representative of the demographics of the entire region. Cumberland County has gained 105K in population since 1970. As "Portlander" mentioned, the city itself is geographically very small, but if you look at the Census data the Fore River cities make up the largest urban area in Northern New England. (243,537 Vs. 158,477 for the Manchester area)
I would say the economy here is actually doing quite well even by national standards. Portland is a small City, but we punch above our weight. We have several major companies headquartered here that are all in the process of expansion, Portland has some of the lowest office and Industrial vacancy rates in New England, and our real estate market remains red-hot.

^ Well said! Portland's population 40 years ago (1980 census) was 61,500, the 2017 estimate places the population at 68,000 which shows a reversal of decline. Portland is no different than any other "gentrified" and thriving city. Education, career choice and income dictates what you can afford and what part of town you can live in. Wages are not keeping up with expenses everywhere. Bangor's cost of living is higher than Bangor's, Portland's is higher than Bangor, Providence is higher than Portland, Boston is higher than Providence and New York is higher than Boston, it's all relative. Chose the urban environment and size that works for you. There are a lot of native Portlander's who have made considerable money the last 20 years on their aging and rundown properties on the East and West Ends by either selling or renovating their homes, so not all locals are depressed.

The tourist season is actually May though November now with the fall becoming a more popular choice for visitors. Maine is also no longer at the top of the list for "least business friendly" states. It actually came in mid pack during the most recent assessment with Connecticut, Vermont and Rhode Island finishing in the worst ten. In addition, Greater Portland is not representative of how the rest of Maine is fairing. The Port of Portland has grown considerably during the last 5 years. The container business is at an all time high with continued improvements to the International Marine Terminal, cruise ship visits continue to increase, the expansion of the Portland Yacht Services, new rail connections along with the future addition of a cold storage warehouse are signs of a healthy "working waterfront". Contrary to popular belief, the fisherman are not being forced out of their berths and any proposed development on the water side of Commercial Street will have to address this important issue.

Portland is a small city and does not pretend to be anything other. However, as Fed180 stated, the city and metropolitan area does punch above it's weight and being considered by most as the most important and preferred urban center north of Boston does warrant some respect. No need to delve into the growth and improvements at PWM, normally airports do not thrive in under achieving cities. Westin Hotels also do not establish their brand in locations that are not viable and or limited. I'm also pretty sure that most cities under 100,000 people look rather diminutive from 35,000 feet. I am a Portland native and am very proud of what my city has become and more importantly where is hopefully heading : )

Any word on how the NK routes at BDL are performing?

bdlflyer wrote:

Any word on how the NK routes at BDL are performing?

The MYR flight seems to be doing well, some days it operates 2x daily after starting seasonal 3-4x a week and MCO, TPA, and FLL always preform well regardless of the carrier.

WN seems to be ending BDL-LAS, I can see Spirit jumping on this route and adding DTW in 2019.

Just noticed these changes for BDL in the OAG thread:

NK BDL-FLL FEB 0.9>2[2] APR 0>2[1.4]
NK BDL-MCO FEB 0.9>2[2] APR 0>2[1.4]
NK BDL-MYR MAR 0>0.3[0.5] APR 0>0.6[0.8]
NK BDL-RSW FEB 0.5>1.0[1.0] APR 0>1.0[0.4]
NK BDL-TPA FEB 0.5>1.0[1.0] APR 0>1.0[0.4]

From the changes above, NK is clearly doing well in BDL.

uconn99 wrote:

bdlflyer wrote:

Any word on how the NK routes at BDL are performing?

The MYR flight seems to be doing well, some days it operates 2x daily after starting seasonal 3-4x a week and MCO, TPA, and FLL always preform well regardless of the carrier.

WN seems to be ending BDL-LAS, I can see Spirit jumping on this route and adding DTW in 2019.

Thanks! I think WN BDL - LAS is a seasonal route. Definitely can see DTW coming soon.

bdlflyer wrote:

uconn99 wrote:

bdlflyer wrote:

Any word on how the NK routes at BDL are performing?

The MYR flight seems to be doing well, some days it operates 2x daily after starting seasonal 3-4x a week and MCO, TPA, and FLL always preform well regardless of the carrier.

WN seems to be ending BDL-LAS, I can see Spirit jumping on this route and adding DTW in 2019.

Thanks! I think WN BDL - LAS is a seasonal route. Definitely can see DTW coming soon.

I believe I read once the season ends it will not be coming back. I believe WN did this a few years ago as well.

Most people don't think like that. For most Americans, driving is second nature to them. Flying is not. You're an airline enthusiast at the very least. You probably get a kick out of visiting other airports and being on a plane. Most people are not like that. Last time I flew to MUC from BOS, there was a couple standing behind me who had driven from Burlington, VT. They were going to Oktoberfest. But LH is not cheap. I know they were paying a lot more to fly non-stop BOS-MUC. It happens a lot more than you think. Even PWM's Assistant Director acknowledges that when she says: “We are definitely seeing a shift to Mainers coming back and using the jetport instead of driving down to Boston

I usually just want to get from point A to B the quickest way possible from my front door. I’d can only afford economy and can’t say I enjoy flying much these days. I don’t travel for business, but I’d imagine most higher yielding business travelers in Maine would use PWM or BGR instead of going to BOS, and those still traveling there are probably lower yield leisure travelers flying in economy?

Personally, I hate arriving after a long haul flight in BOS, then spending another three hours getting home to Portland area. I can be home from the gate at PWM in 25 minutes.

slcdeltarumd11 wrote:

I don't have any numbers ,but this summer and 2018 is suppose to be a record breaking number of passengers for BTV.

The airport seems so perfect for frontier with them now starting NY State services more. The competition is right across in Plattsburgh with allegiant and spirit offerings.

BTV is funny on the border situation it's part of this thread and also pretty relavant in the NY State thread too. More Giants fans in Burlington than Patriots fans lol it's a border town.

Where would you see Frontier flying to from BTV? MCO, DEN or would it be their way to jump in with both? I can't see that there would be too much O&D for BTV-DEN, and I'm not sure that DEN offers much new as a connection to the western US, except perhaps somewhat less weather risk at some times of the year.

[threeid][/threeid]I would think Florida offers the best opportunities for Frontier. MCO most likely.

Lots of demand that the legacies all fly via their hubs. B6 to JFK in winter is basically a shuttle to connect people to Florida flights.

Plattsburgh is a challenge since there is plenty of Florida flying but I still think frontier can make it work, they would have a product differentiator being out of BTV.

I don't have the number but there is a surprising amount for traffic to DEN. The airport applied for Federal funding , seems like a long shot though . Less than daily it could work.

For the record, Manchesters MSA is nearly twice the size of portlands. Manchester metro area is 406,000, not 158,000. People like to make up facts when they’re fanboys of their airport. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Manches ... _Hampshire

This doesn’t even include cities like Lawrence, Lowell, and Haverhill that are right on the NH border. This would get the number near 700,000.

Portland's MSA is ranked at #105 with a population of 532,083. Manchester's MSA is ranked at #131 with a population of 409,697 which includes Nashua. Portland's MSA growth since 2010 has been at 3.50% and Manchester at 2.24%. Lowell and Lawrence are large enough on their own would not use Manchester as their service hub and would defer to Boston. Check your facts prior to throwing the "fanboy" term around.

Portlander wrote:

Portland's MSA is ranked at #105 with a population of 532,083. Manchester's MSA is ranked at #131 with a population of 409,697 which includes Nashua. Portland's MSA growth since 2010 has been at 3.50% and Manchester at 2.24%. Lowell, Lawrence and Haverhill are not right on the border and none of the three would use Manchester as their service hub and would defer to Worcester or Boston. Check your facts prior to throwing the "fanboy" term around.

Maine, the land of alternative facts and fake news. How about a source for your drastically inflated numbers. It’s MSA is rated 147th and an MSA under 250,000. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Portland,_Maine

Are you the fellow who said Portland’s airport numbers were jumping 500,000 a year ? Look, if you want be taken seriously, be prepared with sources. Lawrence, Lowell, and Haverhill are less than 15 miles for each city to MHT, but yeah they don’t use mht, lol. There are more mass plates at MHT than there are nh plates. Thanks for the laugh though. You Portland guys are a hoot. Don’t know what they put in your water, but it makes you make up facts that aren’t true. Manchester and Nashua are 10 miles apart. It’s impossible not to include them in each other’s MSA. Next your going to tell me people in Nashua don’t use mht either.

Less than daily, BTV-MCO/DEN/TPA/RSW will work on F9

The whole state of MAINE has 1.3 million people and this guy wants us to belief over a 3rd of the population is in the Portland area. You couldn’t get to 530,000 even if you included Bangor to Portland’s MSA.

You appear to reference Wikipedia so type in MSA's and you'll get the complete list. You are reading the wrong line on your source, "Metro" is the population you need for comparison purposes. You can also retrieve a list of CSA's (combined) which does not include Manchester because it is part of Boston where Portland warrants it's own due to it's distance from Boston. Lowell, Lawrence and Haverhill are using MHT to fly but that is not what defines a service center. Was not the fellow that claimed PWM's numbers were jumping 500,000 per year. Best to you.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_m ... ical_areas. For you Jay.

Portlander wrote:

You appear to reference Wikipedia so type in MSA's and you'll get the complete list. You are reading the wrong line on your source, "Metro" is the population you need for comparison purposes. You can also retrieve a list of CSA's (combined) which does not include Manchester because it is part of Boston where Portland warrants it's own due to it's distance from Boston. Lowell, Lawrence and Haverhill are using MHT to fly but that is not what defines a service center. Was not the fellow that claimed PWM's numbers were jumping 500,000 per year. Best to you.

You may not like my choice for a source and that’s fine, but it’s better than your source so far which is NONE. Give me just one source to support your claim and I’ll give you credit where credit is due.

Portlander wrote:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_metropolitan_statistical_areas. For you Jay.

Ok, but their including every town all the way to the NH border. 4 counties. That’s quite the stretch, but hey it’s a source at least . Manchester’s MSA they only count one county. What they count as Portland’s MSA is unrealistic. I mean, does this include Portsmouth, nh ?

I have no problem with your source Jay, I'm using the same one. This "guy" is not wanting you to believe anything, the US Office of Management and Budget defines these CSA's and MSA's geographically and it based on a formula that must include a central city with a population of at least 50,000. Are we cool now?

Understand your point, but Manchester does get to include the second largest city in Northern New England (Nashua) in it's count and Portland's second biggest city in it's count is South Portland with only 24.000. I don't chose the boundary lines : )

Portland does not count Portsmouth in it's MSA, Boston gets that prize!

Portlander wrote:

I have no problem with your source Jay, I'm using the same one. This "guy" is not wanting you to believe anything, the US Office of Management and Budget defines these CSA's and MSA's geographically and it based on a formula that must include a central city with a population of at least 50,000. Are we cool now?

Haha, not really. In Portlands MSA they include towns and counties over 40 miles away from Portland. Manchesters MSA includes only one county and the farthest town included is only 12 miles away. Pretty unfair comparison. Don’t know what the guys at the office of management and budgets are smoking but they were overly generous with the FOUR counties they include in Portlands MSA. I won’t lose any sleep over this. Mht’s High water mark was over 4 million passengers. This can not be done without a decent and sizable population. As far as I know, Portland’s high water mark is not even half that.

Don’t want to take anything away from Portland. It’s a beautiful city and much more interesting than manchester. Coastal cities are always going to do well in the tourism department. Manchester was built on a huge collection of textile mills. Boring and mundane, and it still is. Same goes for Nashua, Lowell, lawrence, and Haverhill. These 5 cities have 0 tourist attractions. All New Hampshire’s tourism is in the mountains and to a smaller degree the tiny 18 MILES of coast. Much different demographics drive PWM and MHT. MHTs traffic is constant, while PWM shines during the summer season.

Regardless on how the experts define the boundaries and they may be realistic to you, it is exactly what I stated between the two MSA's. In addition, I actually like the city of Manchester and have never had any negative comments on it's airport and fully understand the historical growth rate and the amazing success it took to reach 4M enplanements. It has gone through a difficult period during the last decade but is only one new airline away from reclaiming some of it's past glory. Do I favor my hometown airport, sure but I cheer for positive growth and improvements to all New England airports which is why I joined this site after checking it out for many years. I think I may have been the only poster to congratulate New Haven on it's new jet service a few weeks ago if you check my previous posts. Thanks for the entertaining banter Jay, enjoyed it!

jay767 wrote:

For the record, Manchesters MSA is nearly twice the size of portlands. Manchester metro area is 406,000, not 158,000. People like to make up facts when they’re fanboys of their airport. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Manches ... _Hampshire

This doesn’t even include cities like Lawrence, Lowell, and Haverhill that are right on the NH border. This would get the number near 700,000.

Mainers have a tendency to be blind to how impoverished and Podunk most of Maine is. (Most think it's the greatest place in the entire country.) and they will get super offended when anybody points out the negative. Or to realize Portlamd isnt much of a city. It's always right on the end of the list next to Mississippi on a lot of lists. The median income is Maine is below the national average. We have the oldest average population of any state. Good paying jobs in Maine are few. Kids that graduate college generally have to leave the state to find a decent paying job in their field. And it's not a business friendly state. Tourists come and see the Old Port in Portland, or down east Maine, but they don't see all the poverty and working poor that are the majority. People who live in southern New England definitely notice a difference compared to where they come from. There's a reason people from southern New England think of Mainers as uneducated hicks. I couldn't give a crap about the yuppies in Portland. They're not representative of most of Maine, and most of the are "from away" as Mainers refer to anybody not from here. You can live here thirty years, but to Mainers, if you're not born here, you're from away and will be looked at suspiciously and people will be slow to welcome you into their inner circle.

But what do I know? I've only lived in Greater Portland for 38 years and been to 42 states to compare to. Still think Maine is a predominently poor and/or blue collar working class place.

pwm2txlhopper wrote:

jay767 wrote:

For the record, Manchesters MSA is nearly twice the size of portlands. Manchester metro area is 406,000, not 158,000. People like to make up facts when they’re fanboys of their airport. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Manches ... _Hampshire

This doesn’t even include cities like Lawrence, Lowell, and Haverhill that are right on the NH border. This would get the number near 700,000.

Mainers have a tendency to be blind to how impoverished and Podunk most of Maine is. (Most think it's the greatest place in the entire country.) and they will get super offended when anybody points out the negative. Or to realize Portlamd isnt much of a city. It's always right on the end of the list next to Mississippi on a lot of lists. The median income is Maine is below the national average. We have the oldest average population of any state. Good paying jobs in Maine are few. Kids that graduate college generally have to leave the state to find a decent paying job in their field. And it's not a business friendly state. Tourists come and see the Old Port in Portland, or down east Maine, but they don't see all the poverty and working poor that are the majority. People who live in southern New England definitely notice a difference compared to where they come from. There's a reason people from southern New England think of Mainers as uneducated hicks. I couldn't give a crap about the yuppies in Portland. They're not representative of most of Maine, and most of the are "from away" as Mainers refer to anybody not from here. You can live here thirty years, but to Mainers, if you're not born here, you're from away and will be looked at suspiciously and people will be slow to welcome you into their inner circle.

But what do I know? I've only lived in Greater Portland for 38 years and been to 42 states to compare to. Still think Maine is a predominently poor and/or blue collar working class place.

I certainly can’t comment on it being impoverished or podunk. I would trade living here in nh with being able to live in the Portland area. There is more culture to Portland than in the inland cities in New England, in my opinion. Podunk ? Not anymore than New Hampshire or Vermont. I was just trying to point out there is a difference in population density in southern New Hampshire compared to the Portland area. In no way do I think Portland or the people of Portland lesser than that of Manchester. They call us hicks too. It’s fine with me. Manchester has your run of the mill chain restaurants which doesn’t qualify as fine dining. Portland on the other hand is home to unique restaurants and good food in general. Even Portsmouth excels in this department compared to Manchester and Nashua. Everybody loves the ocean and places on the coast will always be popular with tourist which is why people want to open restaurants in places like Portland and Portsmouth.

pwm2txlhopper wrote:

jay767 wrote:

For the record, Manchesters MSA is nearly twice the size of portlands. Manchester metro area is 406,000, not 158,000. People like to make up facts when they’re fanboys of their airport. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Manches ... _Hampshire

This doesn’t even include cities like Lawrence, Lowell, and Haverhill that are right on the NH border. This would get the number near 700,000.

Mainers have a tendency to be blind to how impoverished and Podunk most of Maine is. (Most think it's the greatest place in the entire country.) and they will get super offended when anybody points out the negative. Or to realize Portlamd isnt much of a city. It's always right on the end of the list next to Mississippi on a lot of lists. The median income is Maine is below the national average. We have the oldest average population of any state. Good paying jobs in Maine are few. Kids that graduate college generally have to leave the state to find a decent paying job in their field. And it's not a business friendly state. Tourists come and see the Old Port in Portland, or down east Maine, but they don't see all the poverty and working poor that are the majority. People who live in southern New England definitely notice a difference compared to where they come from. There's a reason people from southern New England think of Mainers as uneducated hicks. I couldn't give a crap about the yuppies in Portland. They're not representative of most of Maine, and most of the are "from away" as Mainers refer to anybody not from here. You can live here thirty years, but to Mainers, if you're not born here, you're from away and will be looked at suspiciously and people will be slow to welcome you into their inner circle.

But what do I know? I've only lived in Greater Portland for 38 years and been to 42 states to compare to. Still think Maine is a predominently poor and/or blue collar working class place.

I grew up in Aroostook country, and I wouldn't defend that place for a second. Definitely fits the bill of what you're talking about perfectly. I always see Maine as two states, coastal south, and everything else. Growing up I could see that contrast and it was dramatic. But rural Maine is no more "podunk" than most of Northern NH or rural Vermont. All of Vermont's economic wellbeing sits with the Burlington area, All of NH's economic wellbeing sits between Concord and the MA border, and all of Maine's economic wellbeing is the strip of coast between Bath and Kittery. Maine isn't unique in having struggling rural areas. Last year I drove through rural West Virginia and it made even the poorest towns in Maine look prosperous by comparison.

Cumberland and York Counties (the primary market for PWM flyers) has a median income and GDP per capita pretty similar to or slightly above the national average, not wealthy, but comfortably middle class with a varied economic base, that is definitely something the rest of Maine lacks, but PWM has shown that it can pull in middle class and family travelers on a consistent basis, (my F9 flight from PWM-DEN was mostly Mainers heading west, which wasn't what I was expecting) The Portland area is definitely an "island" from the rest of Maine. Culturally, economically, politically, but all those rankings and awards must mean we are doing something right.

As I mention already, nh’s tourism lies heavily in the north country. Even I know Portland will be the airport of choice of travelers going to the white mountains because of its proximity. So MHT gets screwed in more ways than any airport in New England. You lose flights and fairs go up which drive passengers to BOS because airlines don’t want to cannibalize their big investments in Boston, then PWM is a travelers first choice to get to your states biggest tourist attraction. All this won’t mean much in 10 years. Bos will max out by then and airlines will be forced to serve the other airports.

My father in law was from Houlton and he would say Portland is not Maine. He considered Bangor on north to be the real Maine. An old saying was Maine has 10 months of winter and 2 months of poor sledding. Its been many years since I been to Maine, hunting in Jackman, smelting in Mooselookmeguntic, trout fishing in Norway, it was a good time back then and it was much different from CT,MA and RI. As I said before, the level of air service from PWM is much more than I thought the area can support. Gotta go back for a steam bath and an Italian sandwich on the soft long roll.

I agree with your father in law. Bangor in my opinion embodies the raw essence of a Maine urban center due to it's lumbering history and being the gateway to the northern woods. It has a lot of clout and serves as the hub city for all of northern and eastern Maine. Impressive airport for a city of only 33,000 with one of the longest runways on the east coast. It is still considered the second most important city in Maine even though Lewiston is larger. Nicknamed the "Queen City of the East" in the 1800's! As far as Portland goes, it's kind of been Portland against the rest of the state for quite some time now and it's all good.

Under the PWM master plan that came out after 2013, reported the airports main service area covers 4 counties from York to Androscoggin counties with a population of over 645,000 which is about half the states population. The secondary service area covers Coos and Carroll counties in NH. Bangor does draw a lot during the summer going to MDI and the Canadian traffic using allegiant. You can read the report at >http://thejetport.airportstudy.com/files/2012/12/5_PWM-Ch-2-093016.pdf
My question would be what would MHT be today without SWA? Would the other airlines flourish with high fares? Honestly what is the draw to Manchvegas? The SNHU Arena is not much of a draw anymore, The Fischer Cats do well, a plus for the city. Most of the activity I hear is in Nashua, Exeter and the Portsmouth areas>But, PSM only has one airline with a trickle of people flying Allegiant and the rest being a cargo airport/National Guard. CJ trailways has hourly busses to BOS and free parking from its facility in Portsmouth, plus Concord Coach with a stronghold into logan all making it easier for people to fly in an out of logan. The jetport tried to get concord coach to stop at the jetport, but they said no. They have an agreement with Massport, why would they help out the jetport? same goes with MHT, BGR...Massport will stop at nothing to entice you to come to Boston...

This is a very interesting conversation. I'm "from away" but I went to college in Lewiston (guess where) and the contrast there with the shore towns is stark. Drive inland just a few miles and you'll see the poverty. Portland is not representative of the state as a whole. A lot of young people from out of state end up in Portland after college but no one I know moves anywhere else in the state. All that being said, I've used PWM a few times and it's been an absolute pleasure on the JFK B6 route.

Changing gears a little bit, I was visiting family in Aroostook County this weekend and I was surprised at how incredibly negative locals felt about UA's PQI-EWR replacing PQI-BOS. I wonder if there would ever been enough O/D demand between PQI and BOS for a carrier like Cape Air to operate the route without EAS money.

On the BTV front, I noticed in Flightaware that UA is sending 4 mainline aircraft today - 3xA319 (ORD) and 1xB739 (EWR). I don't check this daily, but I wouldn't be surprised if this is a first, or at least the first time in many years. And this is with AA flying at least two E170s from ORD as well.

mjgbtv wrote:

On the BTV front, I noticed in Flightaware that UA is sending 4 mainline aircraft today - 3xA319 (ORD) and 1xB739 (EWR). I don't check this daily, but I wouldn't be surprised if this is a first, or at least the first time in many years. And this is with AA flying at least two E170s from ORD as well.

On top of AA running 2x E190's to PHL and DL's 717 to ATL.

I lived in Norther VT up until 2013 and don't remember it ever having anything like this in terms of mainline service. Maybe close or similar to what was it like 2004/2005? But I don't think it ever saw mainline like this

cheapgreek wrote:

Kind of sad out of all of Europe,only SNN and DUB have Preclearence, two low volume destinations.

Legally its quite complex to get the statutory requirements in place to allow for pre-clearance in many jurisdictions.
SNN is definitely low volume and punches above it weight with transatlantic traffic but DUB airport is busier than PHL or LGA and is a well located hub for onward connections to mainland Europe.

Let's be honest, BDL/PVD/MHT et al are very unlikely to get services to LHR/CDG or AMS even with pre-clearance so Aer Lingus via DUB or Norwegian via LGW is the best we can hope for in the medium term.

I've seen pissing matches between PVD and BDL on this forum. PVD vs MHT too. But never between MHT and PWM. I don't think they really compete for much overlap market. Years ago when WN had low fares at MHT, there was leakage from PWM, but even with recent developments at PWM, there really is not significant leakage the other way when even lower fares and nonstops are available for leakage to Logan. Much of the NH lakes and mountain country bypass MHT on the way to Logan. The bus schedules make it easy.

Regarding the MSAs, you really cannot put a lot of value in assigning airport markets when multiple MSAs are adjacent to each other. Gotta go by population (and businesses) within driving distance, versus alternative airports. By that measure, MHT and PWM are pretty darn close, but MHT has the edge of being able to tap into a much larger market if the price and services are right. PWM is growing because it has recaptured its market and has stimulated new travel with low fares and new nonstops. This could fall off once the newness wears off, but I hope not. MHT's MSA may only be one county, but its actually within the Boston CMSA, just to confuse things a little more. There is an online calculator that lets you estimate the population within x miles of certain locations. I would trust it over MSA populations in the Northeast.

LotsaRunway wrote:

Much of the NH lakes and mountain country bypass MHT on the way to Logan. The bus schedules make it easy.

Yep, I have relatives in the Sunapee region, and that's how they deal with air travel.

LotsaRunway wrote:

I've seen pissing matches between PVD and BDL on this forum. PVD vs MHT too. But never between MHT and PWM. I don't think they really compete for much overlap market. Years ago when WN had low fares at MHT, there was leakage from PWM, but even with recent developments at PWM, there really is not significant leakage the other way when even lower fares and nonstops are available for leakage to Logan. Much of the NH lakes and mountain country bypass MHT on the way to Logan. The bus schedules make it easy.

Regarding the MSAs, you really cannot put a lot of value in assigning airport markets when multiple MSAs are adjacent to each other. Gotta go by population (and businesses) within driving distance, versus alternative airports. By that measure, MHT and PWM are pretty darn close, but MHT has the edge of being able to tap into a much larger market if the price and services are right. PWM is growing because it has recaptured its market and has stimulated new travel with low fares and new nonstops. This could fall off once the newness wears off, but I hope not. MHT's MSA may only be one county, but its actually within the Boston CMSA, just to confuse things a little more. There is an online calculator that lets you estimate the population within x miles of certain locations. I would trust it over MSA populations in the Northeast.

Would generally agree with this assessment. I certainly don't think that there should be any "pissing matches," as — and I say this as a native Mainer who loves to see his home state do well — MHT will always have more people to draw from within the same distance. That being said, it is evident that PWM has trended up in recent years, while MHT has done the opposite. As far as "newness," I think B6 and WN are past that stage, and I think both are very much there to stay, at least for the foreseeable future. Whether F9 sticks or not, I don't know, but it certainly sounds like they've been doing well, at least anecdotally. It seems that MHT has suffered from mismanagement for a number of years, and while it is certainly plausible that new faces at the top could change things for the better in terms of attracting more airlines/destinations/etc., it remains to be seen whether that is the case. For its part, PWM has really developed in the last 10 years or so, and based on current trends would seem to overtake MHT at some point. That being said, MHT still has a larger population to draw from, but it's up to the airport to take advantage of that — it has failed to do so for a number of years.

I would tend to agree with the opinion that MHT is more likely to get transatlantic service (similar to PVD) before PWM. I don't think MHT would get any of the flagship European carriers or airports in the form of BA/AF/KL or LHR/CDG/AMS, respectively, but I think a DUB or a LGW on DY could be feasible — probably similar to PVD in terms of acting as an overflow airport for the Greater Boston area. Conversely, I don't think PWM would have TATL ops serving as capacity to BOS overflow in the same way that MHT would, but I do think, say, a WW or FI to KEF isn't out of the question. It might not have been feasible to run a small aircraft on these types of routes in the recent past, but it's certainly more possible now. That being said, any TATL ops that would come to PWM would, I think, be a weekly seasonal service to start — I do not think any airline is foolish enough to go into an unproven market either A. year-round or B. daily, at least to start. Again, though, I think any future TATL service would come to MHT (in the form of BOS overflow capacity) before PWM.

jay767 wrote:

This doesn’t even include cities like Lawrence, Lowell, and Haverhill that are right on the NH border. This would get the number near 700,000.

As someone who has lived in one of those MA towns for 14+ years, my wife and I have flown from MHT the combined grand total of 4 times. That's FOUR. By contrast we fly out of BOS about 5 times a year, combined. Most of our travels however are either West or East. Almost never South.
Manchester may have a greater population area but the service from MHT Sucks with a capital "S" and is Expensive with a capital "E". Every single day people are driving past MHT on the way to BOS by the hundreds.
PWM is far enough away from BOS and the airline and route options are significantly better than MHT that people think twice about driving to BOS. Once upon a time people in certain parts of southern ME and coastal NH towns like Kittery, Portsmouth and Dover were driving to MHT or BOS. Now they are probably opting for PWM or BOS.

jay767 wrote:

As I mention already, nh’s tourism lies heavily in the north country. Even I know Portland will be the airport of choice of travelers going to the white mountains because of its proximity. So MHT gets screwed in more ways than any airport in New England. You lose flights and fairs go up which drive passengers to BOS because airlines don’t want to cannibalize their big investments in Boston, then PWM is a travelers first choice to get to your states biggest tourist attraction. All this won’t mean much in 10 years. Bos will max out by then and airlines will be forced to serve the other airports.

I'm confused. First you're advocating for MHT's larger MSA then you're basically agreeing that PWM is better
Anyway, I've been hearing about BOS' so called maxing out for 20 years. The facts are BOS is no-where near maxing out. It is cramped for sure but there is a ton of capacity left. In terms of movements it is way off its past peak. And it terms of terminal space there's still room to grow. Terminal E is being expanded. Neither of the the other terminals is at full capacity yet and i don't see it being reached in 10 years. And when that happens, that shiny new runway that no one uses or the long term parking garage will make room for a new terminal. The biggest constraint at BOS believe it or not is parking. If plan A for MHT is to wait for BOS to max out they're going to be waiting a very long time.

airbazar wrote:

Anyway, I've been hearing about BOS' so called maxing out for 20 years. The facts are BOS is no-where near maxing out. It is cramped for sure but there is a ton of capacity left. In terms of movements it is way off its past peak. And it terms of terminal space there's still room to grow. Terminal E is being expanded. Neither of the the other terminals is at full capacity yet and i don't see it being reached in 10 years. And when that happens, that shiny new runway that no one uses or the long term parking garage will make room for a new terminal. The biggest constraint at BOS believe it or not is parking. If plan A for MHT is to wait for BOS to max out they're going to be waiting a very long time.

Very well said - with all the recent mods at BOS and new connectors being built, all airlines are adequately placed there for maintaining their supply and demand. You also need to factor in recessions and when that happens, everything takes a nosedive. Which is what happened in the mid 2000s. The biggest challenge for BOS as u rightly said is parking and for people who take in very early flights, Terminal B parking gets full by 7:00 am on Monday am. The small surface parking located opp. to Terminal E is way too small IMO - it gets filled very quickly. Massport has been pretty good in planning things well ahead of times.

Manchester’s July numbers.
https://www.flymanchester.com/wp-conten ... y-2018.pdf

Though there was some disagreement on the Government's logic when defining Portland and Manchester's MSA boundaries, Portland is the larger MSA by 121K. I totally agree that MHT has a higher population count to draw from if it pulls passengers from PSM, ORH and BOS areas. It was also stated previously that Lowell and Lawrence are only 15 miles from MHT, they are actually 31 and 24 miles away which still makes Boston a viable option for those cities. MHT is only one new carrier away from reversing the negative trend that started over a decade ago and I sincerely wish the airport the very best in turning things around.

tomaheath wrote:

Manchester’s July numbers.
https://www.flymanchester.com/wp-conten ... y-2018.pdf

-17.5 % drop for WN compared to July 2017. Really not good especially for the middle of tourist season.

mjgbtv wrote:

On the BTV front, I noticed in Flightaware that UA is sending 4 mainline aircraft today - 3xA319 (ORD) and 1xB739 (EWR). I don't check this daily, but I wouldn't be surprised if this is a first, or at least the first time in many years. And this is with AA flying at least two E170s from ORD as well.

BTVB6Flyer wrote:

I lived in Northern VT up until 2013 and don't remember it ever having anything like this in terms of mainline service. Maybe close or similar to what was it like 2004/2005? But I don't think it ever saw mainline like this

You'd have to go back to the 80s or early 90s to see something similar from UA. Then, for a brief time, UA operated it's 2x daily ORD-BTV with 727-200s/737-300s as well as 1-2x daily IAD-BTV with 737-200s. The 732 IAD service didn't last long and was replaced by J41s. Perhaps it was only for one summer, I don't recall exactly, but it was very short-lived.

But considering all carriers, BTV did see similar levels of mainline service back in that 80s-early 90s period. There were certain times during the day when the ramp had a 727-200 from Peoples Express, a 727-200 from United, a couple USAir mainline a/c (DC9-30, BAC-111, 737-200, etc.), and a Piedmont F28, not to mention an assortment of regional a/c.

I don’t really get the whole MSA thing. For example, why does a city like Nashua get counted as part of Boston’s metro area AND Manchester’s? I’m sure there are other examples of what appear to be ‘double counting.’

B595 wrote:

mjgbtv wrote:

On the BTV front, I noticed in Flightaware that UA is sending 4 mainline aircraft today - 3xA319 (ORD) and 1xB739 (EWR). I don't check this daily, but I wouldn't be surprised if this is a first, or at least the first time in many years. And this is with AA flying at least two E170s from ORD as well.

BTVB6Flyer wrote:

I lived in Northern VT up until 2013 and don't remember it ever having anything like this in terms of mainline service. Maybe close or similar to what was it like 2004/2005? But I don't think it ever saw mainline like this

You'd have to go back to the 80s or early 90s to see something similar from UA. Then, for a brief time, UA operated it's 2x daily ORD-BTV with 727-200s/737-300s as well as 1-2x daily IAD-BTV with 737-200s. The 732 IAD service didn't last long and was replaced by J41s. Perhaps it was only for one summer, I don't recall exactly, but it was very short-lived.

But considering all carriers, BTV did see similar levels of mainline service back in that 80s-early 90s period. There were certain times during the day when the ramp had a 727-200 from Peoples Express, a 727-200 from United, a couple USAir mainline a/c (DC9-30, BAC-111, 737-200, etc.), and a Piedmont F28, not to mention an assortment of regional a/c.

Back in the 1980s and 1990s I flew MHT-ORD a number of times in both directions via BTV on 727s and 737-300s.

chrisnh wrote:

I don’t really get the whole MSA thing. For example, why does a city like Nashua get counted as part of Boston’s metro area AND Manchester’s? I’m sure there are other examples of what appear to be ‘double counting.’

Nashua is not a part of the Boston MSA. Boston MSA includes Rockingham and Strafford counties in NH. Nashua is in Hillsborough county which is the Manchester MSA. There is no double counting. Just like how Fall River and New Bedford are not a part of the Bostom MSA, they are a part of the Providence MSA and not counted twice. Fall River and New Bedord are a part of Bristol County in Massachusetts and the entire county is not a part of the Boston MSA, it's entirely a part of the Providence MSA.

chrisnh, great question. As B7520S explained, Nashua is not part of the Boston MSA. However, Nashua, Concord and Manchester along with all points in between are part of Boston's CSA (combined statistical) which is basically a MUCH larger circle around the primary central city. Manchester, Providence and Worcester are too close (around 50 miles or less) to Boston to warrant their own CSA. Because Portland is 108 miles from Boston and is defined as the regional service center, it has it's own CSA which actually includes the Lewiston-Auburn area where it's own MSA does not. New York's CSA covers an area from New Haven, CT to Trenton, NJ along with a chunk of eastern PA! In my opinion, the MSA population counts are a more realistic portrait of a metropolitan area than the CSA "umbrella" counts. Hope that helps.