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Revelation
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Re: The Rest of New England (BDL/PVD/MHT/PWM/ORH/BTV/HVN) - 2018

Wed Nov 21, 2018 6:25 pm

VS4ever wrote:
I think i have found the answer to part of the reason on the long lead time for the DL DTW flight.

http://www.massport.com/capitalprograms ... 283-C1.pdf

Massport awarded a bid for $249k for the building of 2 more jet bridges for Gates 3 and 4 (I am sure 3 will most likely be for DL, then 4 could be common use for anybody else that shows up). Clearly that construction will take time, so that will account for part of the lead time for sure, if DL don't want to share Gates 1 and 2 (already branded elsewhere), plus all the line painting for the parking spots. Interestingly, looking at an overhead of the terminal on Google maps, looks like Gate 3 will be straight on like Gate 2, but 4 might be interesting and at a significant angle, there is room of course to do that, but will definitely be a tow-in gate, unless experts disagree with me, it's just how it looks to me.
Still, another piece in the puzzle.

Well, you gotta hand it to Massport, they are willing to spend money on something that IMHO is quite speculative.

Maybe State of NH/Manchester/Bedford/whomever should sell MHT to Massport? :stirthepot:

Massport has the money and the "determination" to get things done, so it seems.
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cloudboy
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Re: The Rest of New England (BDL/PVD/MHT/PWM/ORH/BTV/HVN) - 2018

Wed Nov 21, 2018 6:36 pm

B6 is all Cat III capable, though, aren't they? I know they don't currently use it there, but they conceivably could.
"Six becoming three doesn't create more Americans that want to fly." -Adam Pilarski
 
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VS4ever
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Re: The Rest of New England (BDL/PVD/MHT/PWM/ORH/BTV/HVN) - 2018

Wed Nov 21, 2018 7:00 pm

Revelation wrote:
VS4ever wrote:
I think i have found the answer to part of the reason on the long lead time for the DL DTW flight.

http://www.massport.com/capitalprograms ... 283-C1.pdf

Massport awarded a bid for $249k for the building of 2 more jet bridges for Gates 3 and 4 (I am sure 3 will most likely be for DL, then 4 could be common use for anybody else that shows up). Clearly that construction will take time, so that will account for part of the lead time for sure, if DL don't want to share Gates 1 and 2 (already branded elsewhere), plus all the line painting for the parking spots. Interestingly, looking at an overhead of the terminal on Google maps, looks like Gate 3 will be straight on like Gate 2, but 4 might be interesting and at a significant angle, there is room of course to do that, but will definitely be a tow-in gate, unless experts disagree with me, it's just how it looks to me.
Still, another piece in the puzzle.

Well, you gotta hand it to Massport, they are willing to spend money on something that IMHO is quite speculative.

Maybe State of NH/Manchester/Bedford/whomever should sell MHT to Massport? :stirthepot:

Massport has the money and the "determination" to get things done, so it seems.


True and I agree with you completely, as i also found the following:
Transient Ramp Rehab - http://www.massport.com/capitalprograms ... 281-C1.pdf - awarded at $1.3m
GPU Unit installation - Gates 1 and 2 (makes me wonder when 3 and 4 will turn up) - http://www.massport.com/capitalprograms ... 209-C1.pdf - awarded at $960K
Runway 15-33 rehab - http://www.massport.com/capitalprograms ... 244-C1.pdf - awarded at $3.3m
Airfield lighting cable replacement - http://www.massport.com/capitalprograms ... 280-C1.pdf - awarded at $866K

So outside of the CAT III, that's another roughly $6m in capital ploughed in, just in those projects alone.

All joking aside about MHT, I doubt Massport has the charter or the authority to go outside of MA, but it does beg a related question in that is it worthwhile for local councils to be involved in the running of an airport, I mean obviously there is a hugely vested interest there, but it's not their expertise by any stretch and I wonder if it would make sense for them to bail and let the private sector take it over, surely can't do any worse right?
That feeling when you sit at the end of a runway, brakes are released and the raw power takes over. Now that is a thing of beauty and it never gets old.
 
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dvincent
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Re: The Rest of New England (BDL/PVD/MHT/PWM/ORH/BTV/HVN) - 2018

Wed Nov 21, 2018 11:08 pm

Revelation wrote:
VS4ever wrote:
I think i have found the answer to part of the reason on the long lead time for the DL DTW flight.

http://www.massport.com/capitalprograms ... 283-C1.pdf

Massport awarded a bid for $249k for the building of 2 more jet bridges for Gates 3 and 4 (I am sure 3 will most likely be for DL, then 4 could be common use for anybody else that shows up). Clearly that construction will take time, so that will account for part of the lead time for sure, if DL don't want to share Gates 1 and 2 (already branded elsewhere), plus all the line painting for the parking spots. Interestingly, looking at an overhead of the terminal on Google maps, looks like Gate 3 will be straight on like Gate 2, but 4 might be interesting and at a significant angle, there is room of course to do that, but will definitely be a tow-in gate, unless experts disagree with me, it's just how it looks to me.
Still, another piece in the puzzle.

Well, you gotta hand it to Massport, they are willing to spend money on something that IMHO is quite speculative.

Maybe State of NH/Manchester/Bedford/whomever should sell MHT to Massport? :stirthepot:

Massport has the money and the "determination" to get things done, so it seems.


I predict a quiet mothballing (moreso than now, at least) of gates 5 and 6. If Gate 4 is limited to RJs, the angle shouldn't be too bad.
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VS4ever
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Re: The Rest of New England (BDL/PVD/MHT/PWM/ORH/BTV/HVN) - 2018

Wed Nov 21, 2018 11:43 pm

dvincent wrote:
Revelation wrote:
VS4ever wrote:
I think i have found the answer to part of the reason on the long lead time for the DL DTW flight.

http://www.massport.com/capitalprograms ... 283-C1.pdf

Massport awarded a bid for $249k for the building of 2 more jet bridges for Gates 3 and 4 (I am sure 3 will most likely be for DL, then 4 could be common use for anybody else that shows up). Clearly that construction will take time, so that will account for part of the lead time for sure, if DL don't want to share Gates 1 and 2 (already branded elsewhere), plus all the line painting for the parking spots. Interestingly, looking at an overhead of the terminal on Google maps, looks like Gate 3 will be straight on like Gate 2, but 4 might be interesting and at a significant angle, there is room of course to do that, but will definitely be a tow-in gate, unless experts disagree with me, it's just how it looks to me.
Still, another piece in the puzzle.

Well, you gotta hand it to Massport, they are willing to spend money on something that IMHO is quite speculative.

Maybe State of NH/Manchester/Bedford/whomever should sell MHT to Massport? :stirthepot:

Massport has the money and the "determination" to get things done, so it seems.


I predict a quiet mothballing (moreso than now, at least) of gates 5 and 6. If Gate 4 is limited to RJs, the angle shouldn't be too bad.


True, but they might be useful for Rectrix unless Massport is going to let them use Gate 4 as a walkdown gate rather than a jetbridge.
That feeling when you sit at the end of a runway, brakes are released and the raw power takes over. Now that is a thing of beauty and it never gets old.
 
cessna53996
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Re: The Rest of New England (BDL/PVD/MHT/PWM/ORH/BTV/HVN) - 2018

Thu Nov 22, 2018 12:00 am

cloudboy wrote:
B6 is all Cat III capable, though, aren't they? I know they don't currently use it there, but they conceivably could.


JetBlue has used the CATIII many times into ORH. All crews and aircraft are CATIII capable.
 
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dvincent
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Re: The Rest of New England (BDL/PVD/MHT/PWM/ORH/BTV/HVN) - 2018

Thu Nov 22, 2018 12:31 am

VS4ever wrote:
dvincent wrote:
Revelation wrote:

True, but they might be useful for Rectrix unless Massport is going to let them use Gate 4 as a walkdown gate rather than a jetbridge.


Ramp space will likely be at a premium with all four jetways installed. It's possible that they could stripe things in such a way that 5 and 6 could be used if 4 is unoccupied.

Another issue with 5 and 6 is that they require either separate security or access from the secure zone. IIRC there is an escalator from the upstairs departures area down to 5 and 6, but it's been a few years since I've walked through that area of ORH, and that time I just walked to those gates from ground level for Wings of Freedom.

Doesn't Rectrix operate from their FBO? Going to gate 5 and 6 would be a downgrade for them, probably, unless they get busy enough.
From the Mind of Minolta
 
BTVB6Flyer
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Re: The Rest of New England (BDL/PVD/MHT/PWM/ORH/BTV/HVN) - 2018

Thu Nov 22, 2018 3:44 am

IAD-BTV seeing mainline UA tonight, officially makes all UA stations from BTV a portion mainline, EWR, IAD, ORD.

https://flightaware.com/live/flight/UAL1914
 
btvhopper
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Re: The Rest of New England (BDL/PVD/MHT/PWM/ORH/BTV/HVN) - 2018

Sun Nov 25, 2018 2:13 pm

Speaking of BTV, the airport just had its 2nd best October ever (best since ‘07, pre-recession). Delta is growing nearly 40% YOY. They’re flying to DTW at a much higher frequency on regionals, and upgraded ATL from MD88 to 737-800...not sure what else it could be.

Most remarkable is that this growth is entirely from the legacies (B6 is actually down). Makes one wonder what else could be in store for BTV in the next 6-12 months if F9 is able to replicate the success they’ve had at PWM.

https://www.boarddocs.com/vt/burlington ... istics.pdf
 
mjgbtv
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Re: The Rest of New England (BDL/PVD/MHT/PWM/ORH/BTV/HVN) - 2018

Sun Nov 25, 2018 6:40 pm

btvhopper wrote:
Speaking of BTV, the airport just had its 2nd best October ever (best since ‘07, pre-recession). Delta is growing nearly 40% YOY. They’re flying to DTW at a much higher frequency on regionals, and upgraded ATL from MD88 to 737-800...not sure what else it could be.

Most remarkable is that this growth is entirely from the legacies (B6 is actually down). Makes one wonder what else could be in store for BTV in the next 6-12 months if F9 is able to replicate the success they’ve had at PWM.

https://www.boarddocs.com/vt/burlington ... istics.pdf


I suspect that Delta starting flights to JFK accounts for a decent amount of their increase as well as JetBlue's stagnation/decrease.

Unfortunately I wonder if one thing in store for the near future might be JetBlue withdrawing from BTV.
 
Fex180
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Re: The Rest of New England (BDL/PVD/MHT/PWM/ORH/BTV/HVN) - 2018

Sun Nov 25, 2018 6:45 pm

mjgbtv wrote:
btvhopper wrote:
Speaking of BTV, the airport just had its 2nd best October ever (best since ‘07, pre-recession). Delta is growing nearly 40% YOY. They’re flying to DTW at a much higher frequency on regionals, and upgraded ATL from MD88 to 737-800...not sure what else it could be.

Most remarkable is that this growth is entirely from the legacies (B6 is actually down). Makes one wonder what else could be in store for BTV in the next 6-12 months if F9 is able to replicate the success they’ve had at PWM.

https://www.boarddocs.com/vt/burlington ... istics.pdf


I suspect that Delta starting flights to JFK accounts for a decent amount of their increase as well as JetBlue's stagnation/decrease.

Unfortunately I wonder if one thing in store for the near future might be JetBlue withdrawing from BTV.


My hunch is that jf Frontier expands at BTV like they did at PWM (with 3 nonstop florida destinations now) B6 will end year round BTV service. Most of B6's traffic out of Burlington are transferring to Florida prints. Same as Portland
 
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chrisnh
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Re: The Rest of New England (BDL/PVD/MHT/PWM/ORH/BTV/HVN) - 2018

Sun Nov 25, 2018 6:52 pm

I’m curious as to why B6 would allow an out-of-region airline like Frontier to dictate these moves. That is, if we are to agree that B6 retrenching at PWM and perhaps BTV has to do with Frontier’s moves.
 
tomaheath
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Re: The Rest of New England (BDL/PVD/MHT/PWM/ORH/BTV/HVN) - 2018

Sun Nov 25, 2018 11:04 pm

I personally think I’d take B6 JFK service verses F9s less than daily service to destinations.
 
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pwm2txlhopper
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Re: The Rest of New England (BDL/PVD/MHT/PWM/ORH/BTV/HVN) - 2018

Mon Nov 26, 2018 2:32 am

tomaheath wrote:
I personally think I’d take B6 JFK service verses F9s less than daily service to destinations.


After a positive experience with Frontier to PWM a few weeks ago, my first time with them, I was just doing dummy bookings from PWM to MCO, RSW, TPA from next week through this winter. Frontier is only asking $45-55 each way to these cities on most days, plus another $30 x2 for a bag to be checked in both directions.

So, roundtrip would be only about $160 if you didn't buy an assigned seat or any extras. (Even for last minute bookings) You can fly to MCO from PWM this Tuesday for only $45 one-way. The other airlines from PWM to these cities are usually $250-$350 roundtrip with advance purchase. Including Southwest and JetBlue.

With fares like that, it might attract just enough leisure fliers that JetBlue's offseason loads out of PWM just aren't worth it. (Assuming they're already not great if B6 is pulling out in the offseason? )

If I was going to Florida, those are attractive fares. Especially for non-stops avoiding a potential delay with a connection at JFK with B6.


I suspect that Delta starting flights to JFK accounts for a decent amount of their increase as well as JetBlue's stagnation/decrease.

Unfortunately I wonder if one thing in store for the near future might be JetBlue withdrawing from BTV.


And anybody flying from BTV or PWM to NYC can expect fares to go up dramatically once JetBlue leaves and Delta jacks up fares. For a decade you've been able to get flights from PWM-JFK for $70-90 each way thanks to JetBlue setting the rate. Fares to LGA and EWR with AA or UA often are matched to those to JFK. Soon, Delta will be asking $300-400 to fly less than three hundred miles to New York. Any other cities that could be reached with JetBlue, but aren't served by Southwest or Frontier will also go back to sky high.
 
mjgbtv
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Re: The Rest of New England (BDL/PVD/MHT/PWM/ORH/BTV/HVN) - 2018

Tue Nov 27, 2018 12:30 am

pwm2txlhopper wrote:
And anybody flying from BTV or PWM to NYC can expect fares to go up dramatically once JetBlue leaves and Delta jacks up fares. For a decade you've been able to get flights from PWM-JFK for $70-90 each way thanks to JetBlue setting the rate. Fares to LGA and EWR with AA or UA often are matched to those to JFK. Soon, Delta will be asking $300-400 to fly less than three hundred miles to New York. Any other cities that could be reached with JetBlue, but aren't served by Southwest or Frontier will also go back to sky high.


Maybe JFK itself, but I wonder if it would be that dramatic overall? JetBlue and Southwest don't really seem to be the low-cost/low-fare airlines that they used to be so I wonder how much they drive fares down nowadays. I looked at a few examples of cities that JetBlue does and does not fly to and there wasn't much of a pattern to which had higher fares.
 
uconn99
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Re: The Rest of New England (BDL/PVD/MHT/PWM/ORH/BTV/HVN) - 2018

Tue Nov 27, 2018 1:29 am

September 2018 Bradley International Airport Passengers-

Total Passengers-

September 2018 - 513,085 +5.9%
September 2017 - 484,649

Total Passengers YTD (January - September)

2018- 4,977,062 +3.9%
2017- 4,791,884

Domestic by Airline September 2018-

American- 119,770
Southwest- 107,525
Delta- 101,674
jetBlue- 68,458
United- 67,806
Spirit- 33,168

International by Airline September 2018-

Aer Lingus- 9,083
Air Canada- 5,601
 
btvhopper
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Re: The Rest of New England (BDL/PVD/MHT/PWM/ORH/BTV/HVN) - 2018

Fri Nov 30, 2018 4:16 pm

Not sure if anyone saw this, but Porter is exiting BTV this winter. An airline spokesman says its not due to demand, pilot/plane allocation, etc but rather difficulty procuring a ground crew for less-than-daily, seasonal service. They say hope to be back next year...might take something else though.

I think we all saw this coming and I don't find it concerning at all. Mid-size cities that are drivable distances are tough to crack for a market like BTV.

https://www.sevendaysvt.com/OffMessage/ ... ial-flight
 
btvhopper
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Re: The Rest of New England (BDL/PVD/MHT/PWM/ORH/BTV/HVN) - 2018

Fri Nov 30, 2018 4:16 pm

Not sure if anyone saw this, but Porter is exiting BTV this winter. An airline spokesman says its not due to demand, pilot/plane allocation, etc but rather difficulty procuring a ground crew for less-than-daily, seasonal service. They say hope to be back next year...might take something else though.

I think we all saw this coming and I don't find it concerning at all. Mid-size cities that are driveable distances are tough to crack for a market like BTV.

https://www.sevendaysvt.com/OffMessage/ ... ial-flight
 
slcdeltarumd11
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Re: The Rest of New England (BDL/PVD/MHT/PWM/ORH/BTV/HVN) - 2018

Fri Nov 30, 2018 4:40 pm

for BTV and Porter

I can see the airport was a struggle for Porter. Burlington has a very good job market, and its hard to get a reliable person at minimum wage for such a short term job. This same person also needs to have a very flexible schedule who can also stay when the plane is running late etc. Additionally getting out to the airport and working outside in Vermont winters is not the easiest sell.
Staffing not demand would make sense to me why Porter left.
 
mjgbtv
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Re: The Rest of New England (BDL/PVD/MHT/PWM/ORH/BTV/HVN) - 2018

Fri Nov 30, 2018 5:20 pm

slcdeltarumd11 wrote:
for BTV and Porter

I can see the airport was a struggle for Porter. Burlington has a very good job market, and its hard to get a reliable person at minimum wage for such a short term job. This same person also needs to have a very flexible schedule who can also stay when the plane is running late etc. Additionally getting out to the airport and working outside in Vermont winters is not the easiest sell.
Staffing not demand would make sense to me why Porter left.


It can't help, though, that traffic the past couple of years was down quite a bit from the high a few years ago, ironically in what I believe were quite good ski seasons.

Another issue (although I don't know if it translates directly to increased costs for Porter) is that the customs area at BTV is located by the FBO and not in the main terminal.
 
btvhopper
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Re: The Rest of New England (BDL/PVD/MHT/PWM/ORH/BTV/HVN) - 2018

Fri Nov 30, 2018 8:37 pm

If Vail is able to buy Smuggler's Notch ski area as some rumors are suggesting it could be a real game changer for the area from a winter tourism standpoint and for Porter specifically.

There's huge opportunity to connect Smuggs to the Spruce Peak side of Stowe. If they do there will be absolutely nothing like it in New England. Furthermore, Smuggs itself is much closer to BTV because you don't have to go all the way down the Winooski River Valley, then back up. It's much closer for people driving from Montreal too, so perhaps more families from Montreal will drive down, which could in turn make it a more popular tourist destination with other Canadian markets.

Until there's something like that, I'm not sure the Porter service will be sustainable or come back at all. The logistical challenges of operating small, less-than-daily international flights as well as the difficulty it is to absorb fixed costs may be too much to overcome.

Would it be possible to restore a Toronto - BTV route with a daily (or more) Air Canada or United flight to YYZ with one of those federal Small Market Development grants or revenue guarantees? I know those are the strings the Mayor and the airport director are trying pull for that long-sought service to DEN.
 
Fex180
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Re: The Rest of New England (BDL/PVD/MHT/PWM/ORH/BTV/HVN) - 2018

Fri Nov 30, 2018 9:35 pm

btvhopper wrote:
If Vail is able to buy Smuggler's Notch ski area as some rumors are suggesting it could be a real game changer for the area from a winter tourism standpoint and for Porter specifically.

There's huge opportunity to connect Smuggs to the Spruce Peak side of Stowe. If they do there will be absolutely nothing like it in New England. Furthermore, Smuggs itself is much closer to BTV because you don't have to go all the way down the Winooski River Valley, then back up. It's much closer for people driving from Montreal too, so perhaps more families from Montreal will drive down, which could in turn make it a more popular tourist destination with other Canadian markets.

Until there's something like that, I'm not sure the Porter service will be sustainable or come back at all. The logistical challenges of operating small, less-than-daily international flights as well as the difficulty it is to absorb fixed costs may be too much to overcome.

Would it be possible to restore a Toronto - BTV route with a daily (or more) Air Canada or United flight to YYZ with one of those federal Small Market Development grants or revenue guarantees? I know those are the strings the Mayor and the airport director are trying pull for that long-sought service to DEN.


Up until late 2013 AC flew 2x daily to PWM and MHT (If my memory is correct) using Beech-1900's. The route lasted a few years but they couldn't make it work, I would guess that the tiny, uncomfortable planes used on the routes played a role in the failure, I wouldn't hold my breath for AC to re-enter the smaller New England markets, but I wouldn't say it's impossible either.
 
btvhopper
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Re: The Rest of New England (BDL/PVD/MHT/PWM/ORH/BTV/HVN) - 2018

Sat Dec 01, 2018 2:20 am

Fex180 wrote:
Up until late 2013 AC flew 2x daily to PWM and MHT (If my memory is correct) using Beech-1900's. The route lasted a few years but they couldn't make it work, I would guess that the tiny, uncomfortable planes used on the routes played a role in the failure, I wouldn't hold my breath for AC to re-enter the smaller New England markets, but I wouldn't say it's impossible either.


Ugh, ya that does not sound sustainable. I think the only way to make a Beech-1900 work is if you're in Presque Isle and sitting on a pile of EAS money.
 
BTVB6Flyer
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Re: The Rest of New England (BDL/PVD/MHT/PWM/ORH/BTV/HVN) - 2018

Sat Dec 01, 2018 2:32 am

Does anyone have LF's for the Porter BTV flights?

AC on the DH4 may be a player and may do ok based off of YYZ's connections. Porter was a very niche route.

Porter was a big win for BTV back when they started, I would be happy with a trade off of losing YTZ and adding DEN on UA or F9. Just given the way BTV has been trending as of late, DEN makes the next 'win' for BTV.
 
33lspotter
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Re: The Rest of New England (BDL/PVD/MHT/PWM/ORH/BTV/HVN) - 2018

Sat Dec 01, 2018 3:27 am

btvhopper wrote:
Ugh, ya that does not sound sustainable. I think the only way to make a Beech-1900 work is if you're in Presque Isle and sitting on a pile of EAS money.


Also, 2x daily?! That just sounds unsustainable for markets of that size.
 
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VS4ever
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Re: The Rest of New England (BDL/PVD/MHT/PWM/ORH/BTV/HVN) - 2018

Sat Dec 01, 2018 6:36 am

So i had forgotten that i had created a PVD analysis based on their published numbers, the tricky part of that is combining all the parts for DL, UA and AA to make a group number, but we got there and here's the new version, unlike the T-100 snapshot i ran a few weeks ago, this one goes back in time to between 2014 and 2012 to show generic trends going on with PVD by airline rather than route. I have excluded Cargo from this, because some months in 2016 did not publish cargo numbers, so unless someone has those, can't give accurate info sadly.

https://drive.google.com/open?id=1V10vY ... 8tUN1vCxs4

Usual analysis, Sept 18 is the last month currently available:
Month vs Month (2014, thru 2018)
QTD (Q3 for 2014 thru 2018
YTD (Jan to Sep - 2014 thru 2018)
Year (2012 thru 2017)
Rolling (Oct to Sep)

Info:
Month
Highlight: September for PVD has grown each of the last 4 years from 297k in 2014 to 342k in 2018, including a 6.4% uplift in 2017 to 2018. All airlines increased this month compared to last year except for UA who dropped 7.6% or roughly 2,300 pax.

Trends
International grew 18.2% to 22,000 on the back of Norwegian and Air Georgian, Azores roughly maintained and of course VR is gone.
Domestically outside of G4 who have too small a number to care, and UA above, biggest growth came from F9, with 6,500 pax and 42.5% growth, next up DL with 4,800 pax and 12.6% and 3rd was AA with 4,100 which equates to 5,1%, from a share perspective, no-one is going to topple WN or AA anytime soon, but WN have dropped from 42.5% to 35.6% as the market is diluted with new entrants since 2014. AA have maintained their share at around 25%, DL have increased by 0.7%, B6 by 0.2%, but are down from their height of 6.8% in 2016, biggest mover is F9, who have grabbed a 6.5% share, are bigger than B6 and are closing in on UA


YTD (Full disclosure - i forgot to update the comparative captions, so it looks like 16 vs 17, but is capturing 17 vs 18, sorry)

Highlight: September YTD for PVD has grown each of the last 4 years from 2.7m in 2014 to 3.3m in 2018, including a 15% uplift in 2017 to 2018 and over 21% since 2014. AA, F9, G4 and UA all increased particularly F9 and G4 from their 2017 standing starts,

Trends
International grew 111.7% to 174,000 on the back of Norwegian and Air Georgian, Azores roughly maintained and of course VR is gone. Norwegian pulled in 159k Pax, which got very close to B6 in comparison.
Domestically showed exceedingly large growth. F9 added 289k pax, albeit from a low comparator and G4 added 56,000 and for the very similar reason. F9 has nearly caught up with DL already ending the month only 13k short YTD with a nearly 10% share of Pax overall. In contrast B6 has dropped around 20K and WN around 37K. WN has also lost around 7% YTD since 2014. However WN is still the undisputed #1 airline at PVD by a good 16%

Anyway, i'm done for the night... check out the rest of the file and let me know if you have any questions.
That feeling when you sit at the end of a runway, brakes are released and the raw power takes over. Now that is a thing of beauty and it never gets old.
 
cheapgreek
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Re: The Rest of New England (BDL/PVD/MHT/PWM/ORH/BTV/HVN) - 2018

Sat Dec 01, 2018 12:51 pm

Revelation wrote:
VS4ever wrote:
I think i have found the answer to part of the reason on the long lead time for the DL DTW flight.

http://www.massport.com/capitalprograms ... 283-C1.pdf

Massport awarded a bid for $249k for the building of 2 more jet bridges for Gates 3 and 4 (I am sure 3 will most likely be for DL, then 4 could be common use for anybody else that shows up). Clearly that construction will take time, so that will account for part of the lead time for sure, if DL don't want to share Gates 1 and 2 (already branded elsewhere), plus all the line painting for the parking spots. Interestingly, looking at an overhead of the terminal on Google maps, looks like Gate 3 will be straight on like Gate 2, but 4 might be interesting and at a significant angle, there is room of course to do that, but will definitely be a tow-in gate, unless experts disagree with me, it's just how it looks to me.
Still, another piece in the puzzle.

Well, you gotta hand it to Massport, they are willing to spend money on something that IMHO is quite speculative.

Maybe State of NH/Manchester/Bedford/whomever should sell MHT to Massport? :stirthepot:

Massport has the money and the "determination" to get things done, so it seems.


Nice to see Massport investing in another state airport, unlike Connecticut which is fighting tooth and nail against HVN and its plan to pave some of the overruns to allow more airlines to offer more flights. AA HVN's flights to PHL are doing very well and this month AA will start HVN-CLT Saturday flights, so the demand is here in New Haven and increased service would make air travel more convenient and easier for friends and family to drop off and pick up passengers. ORH-BOS and HVN-BDL are equal in distance apart so the nearby argument fades away in reality. Allegiant has said its wants to start HVN Florida flights and with UA building up IAD, I am hoping for HVN-IAD flights which should do very well. Greater New Haven flyers have a nearby existing airport to use and with the runway upgrade, more flights will follow and that will eliminate driving almost to Massachusetts to BDL.
 
PVD757
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Re: The Rest of New England (BDL/PVD/MHT/PWM/ORH/BTV/HVN) - 2018

Sat Dec 01, 2018 2:34 pm

Thank you VS4ever for the PVD analysis!!!
 
mjgbtv
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Re: The Rest of New England (BDL/PVD/MHT/PWM/ORH/BTV/HVN) - 2018

Sat Dec 01, 2018 3:10 pm

BTVB6Flyer wrote:
Does anyone have LF's for the Porter BTV flights?

AC on the DH4 may be a player and may do ok based off of YYZ's connections. Porter was a very niche route.

Porter was a big win for BTV back when they started, I would be happy with a trade off of losing YTZ and adding DEN on UA or F9. Just given the way BTV has been trending as of late, DEN makes the next 'win' for BTV.


LF's were in the 30%-50% range. It was a nice win, but never more than 2000 passengers in a year so probably more for PR than anything else. I expect that DEN would have a much bigger impact financially.
 
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VS4ever
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Re: The Rest of New England (BDL/PVD/MHT/PWM/ORH/BTV/HVN) - 2018

Sat Dec 01, 2018 7:58 pm

Next up. BDL....
https://drive.google.com/open?id=0B61t8 ... VRWdmc5SkE

Similar rules apply here as to PVD, except I only have data back to 2014 rather than 2012.

Info:
Month
Highlight: September for BDL has grown each of the last 4 years from 452k in 2014 to 513k in 2018 (18 was the first of the bunch to be over 500K, which was a 5.9% uplift in 2017 to 2018.

Trends

AA - dropped 3.3% or around 4K continuing a trend that has seen them drop 8.5% over the time period and a 5.6% market share drop
DL - dropped 2.5% or around 2.5K, reversing previous year growth
International also dropped 15.7% due to the exit of Norwegian and a slight drop in EI against a slight uptick in AC now they have consolidated under Jazz.

On the upside:
UA - increased by 10.4% or 6,300 pax 17 to 18 and a whopping 63% over the past 4 years with a massive push away from regionals to mainline flying (193% increase)
NK - more than doubled to 33K pax as their expansion continues a pace
B6 - after holding steady in 16 and 17, B6 posted a 16% increase in 2018 or 9,400 pax and are up nearly 50% over 2014
WN - increased by 4.5% or 4,600 pax, which reversed a previous trend downwards since 2014.

In terms of market share:
DL slipped back to #3, as their drop, coupled with WN's increase flipped their positions
B6 moved up to #4 at the expense of UA, by a mere 652 pax, so those could flip flop quite easily.
AA is still #1, but their lead is reducing and they are only 2.3% over WN, which next year could be overtaken if the trend were to be continued.



YTD

Highlight: September YTD for BDL has grown each of the last 4 years from 4.4m in 2014 to just under 5m in 2018 (13.1% increase), including a 3.9% uplift in 2017 to 2018 (185K).

Trends:
AA - despite their bigger drop in September. YTD AA are down less than 1% (10K), but they are 5.5% or 70K down since 2014,
DL - dropped 1.5% or around 14K, reversing previous year growth and well down on their number from 2015.
International also dropped 5.1%, (6.8K) due to the exit of Norwegian (8.9K) and a 2.9% drop in EI (1.9k) against a 7.2% uptick in AC (3.1K)

On the upside:
UA - increased by 10.7% or 55,000 pax 17 to 18 and a significant 54.5% over the past 4 years with a massive push of mainline flying (132% increase)
NK - are making a statement, now pulling in 344K and grabbed a nearly 7% market share YTD.
B6 - despite their uptick in September are actually down year over year by 2.7% or 18K allowing UA to close in, but there is still 60K gap at this point, that said since 2014 pax have grown by over 20%.
WN - like B6 and their increase in September WN are also down for the YTD by 5.3% (64,000), there is little danger to their current position, but the direction is definitely down with a 10.2% decrease since 2014.

In terms of market share:
YTD, the only big mover was WN that lost it's #1 position to AA and is now behind by 1% share of all pax. Spirit as noted above has taken a 7% share, and UA has increased by 0.7% at the expense of the others.

Rolling
Rolling 12 months at the end of September is 6.6m pax which is 4.1% up on this time last year, based on that and the numbers for Oct to Dec (removing Norwegian as we know they are gone) end of year is looking at just a touch under 6.7m for the year, which compares to 6.4m in 2017 and under 5.9m in 2014.

Clearly BDL is continuing it's growth path, but there are interesting dynamics, some of which we have discussed here underneath with each of the carriers. Obviously this is just based around numbers of pax and we can only draw conclusions based on the data noted, but a shift is definitely on. the US3 are definitely moving to more mainline, all of them. B6 continues to hold at it's current levels, but I am sure has lost share to NK in particular. WN is still a powerful player and a solid #2, and DL is not appearing to make any attempts to oust them from that position as far as I can tell. The big flip could be UA vs B6, there's still 100k to play with so it might still take some time to manage it.

As ever, any questions, let me know.
That feeling when you sit at the end of a runway, brakes are released and the raw power takes over. Now that is a thing of beauty and it never gets old.
 
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VS4ever
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Re: The Rest of New England (BDL/PVD/MHT/PWM/ORH/BTV/HVN) - 2018

Sun Dec 02, 2018 1:13 am

Final Chapter for this segment, good ole MHT
https://drive.google.com/open?id=19v-Fd ... QvUMzlAqjN

Same rules apply here as to the others, data goes back to 2013. This is as of September.

Info:
Month
Highlight: As we know the numbers for MHT have been pretty dire the past 4 years and September was no exception. A 14.3% drop from 166K to 142K and a 29.1% drop since 2013 when life was nearly at 200K, now we are closer to 100K :(

Trends

AA - was actually up by 856 or 2.3% at 38,000, but that was really the only bright spot.

DL down by 15.9% and nearly 4,000 pax,
UA was down by nearly 50% (over 7,000 pax) and 65% down since 2013.
WN also down by over 15% and a whopping 13,000 pax and 32% down since 2013 when they shipped 35,000 more customers back and forth.

In terms of market share:
No Movement Year over Year. WN still reigns at over 53% and is down about 2% from 2013, Due to all the other reductions including WN, AA cemented their 2nd spot with a 4.4% increase in share, but again that's less about them increasing and more about the others declining to be honest. .


Cargo
Cargo at MHT has actually been increasing since 2015, this year increased by 2.1m lbs or 17%, but is still down 7.5% from 2013, so more work to be done next September to keep the trend going.


YTD
Highlight: September YTD for MHT has been less of an unmitigated disaster than Sept was on its own, but still dropped by 73,000 pax and 4.9%, but alarmingly as we have repeatedly noted MHT is 24% down since 2013 with a huge drop of 440,000, which is a rough average of 1,600 less flyers a day, that's 8, 9 or 10 planeloads less per day depending on the average seat count you use and that's just scary in all honesty.

Trends:
AA - the single bright spot like September, they have grown 9.3% this year to the tune of 30,000 and 11% increase vs 2013, clearly folks like what they are doing

DL down 4.5% for the year 9,200 pax lower and nearly 61,000 fewer since 2013 for a 24% reduction, the rate of reduction has slowed, 24% would be an average of 6% a year over 4 years.

UA - what a mess. 7.3% down YOY for a reduction of 7,600 pax only tells part of the 51% reduction since 2013 with nearly 100K less flying with them..
WN - biggest player, biggest drops 10.3% YOY and 85,000, but a whopping 315K reduction since 2013 nearly 30%... so sad to see. but we know the reasons why, or most of them anyway.


In terms of market share:
WN still #1, but has given up over 4% market share over time, 3% of that in the last year alone to the benefit of AA who have grown from 17% to 25% over the same time. DL have maintained and UA have also dropped by nearly 4%.

Cargo
Cargo has seen an 11% YTD increase over 2017 from 120 to 134m lbs. UPS with 14.7% increase and 9.5m was the biggest shaker and is up 20% over 2013 FX also increased by 3.8m, but is still 1.5m lbs or 2.7% down from previous levels. Wiggins is also on an upward trend but like FX is still down from 2013, by roughly 400,000 lbs or 8.4%.
Even WN is rolling along with cargo, 11% increase YOY and 111% up since 2013, which considering the flying reduction is some going and i am sure is offsetting the revenue reductions from the pax side.

Rolling
Rolling 12 months at the end of September is now under 1.9m having been nearly 2.2m in the Oct 13-Sep 14 period, freight is up 14m lbs and if that continues, will be very close to 200m lbs this time next year and i only expect freight to increase and pax to decrease unless there is a huge change in fortunes.

As ever, any questions, let me know.
That feeling when you sit at the end of a runway, brakes are released and the raw power takes over. Now that is a thing of beauty and it never gets old.
 
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Revelation
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Re: The Rest of New England (BDL/PVD/MHT/PWM/ORH/BTV/HVN) - 2018

Sun Dec 02, 2018 1:32 am

VS4ever wrote:
As ever, any questions, let me know.

How does it feel to be a reporter watching the Hindenburg burn?

Thanks for the post, dire that it may be.

Keep up the good work!
Wake up to find out that you are the eyes of the world
The heart has it's beaches, it's homeland and thoughts of it's own
Wake now, discover that you are the song that the morning brings
The heart has it's seasons, it's evenings and songs of it's own
 
rnav2dlrey
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Re: The Rest of New England (BDL/PVD/MHT/PWM/ORH/BTV/HVN) - 2018

Sun Dec 02, 2018 1:45 am

VS4ever, thank you! the work you do and information you provide to this and the BOS thread are greatly appreciated by many.
 
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VS4ever
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Re: The Rest of New England (BDL/PVD/MHT/PWM/ORH/BTV/HVN) - 2018

Sun Dec 02, 2018 2:09 am

Revelation wrote:
VS4ever wrote:
As ever, any questions, let me know.

How does it feel to be a reporter watching the Hindenburg burn?

Thanks for the post, dire that it may be.

Keep up the good work!


Yeah i know, I never like reporting bad things, but I think it puts MHT into perspective and it appears to be turning itself into a Cargo Port. I think the most interesting thing for me was seeing the WN Cargo increase while their ridership massively decreased.

Thank you for the support, it's only worth it if people value it, so I appreciate you and everyone else's comments and if I miss anything please let me know if I can find it or figure it out, I will. Coming soon (I hope, I am going to attempt an on-time performance analysis for PVD, MHT and BDL), I am still getting to grips with BOS so we shall see.
That feeling when you sit at the end of a runway, brakes are released and the raw power takes over. Now that is a thing of beauty and it never gets old.
 
tomaheath
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Re: The Rest of New England (BDL/PVD/MHT/PWM/ORH/BTV/HVN) - 2018

Sun Dec 02, 2018 2:35 am

Thanks again for the awesome info!
 
uconn99
Posts: 247
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Re: The Rest of New England (BDL/PVD/MHT/PWM/ORH/BTV/HVN) - 2018

Sun Dec 02, 2018 8:32 pm

VS4ever wrote:
Next up. BDL....
https://drive.google.com/open?id=0B61t8 ... VRWdmc5SkE

Similar rules apply here as to PVD, except I only have data back to 2014 rather than 2012.

Info:
Month
Highlight: September for BDL has grown each of the last 4 years from 452k in 2014 to 513k in 2018 (18 was the first of the bunch to be over 500K, which was a 5.9% uplift in 2017 to 2018.

Trends

AA - dropped 3.3% or around 4K continuing a trend that has seen them drop 8.5% over the time period and a 5.6% market share drop
DL - dropped 2.5% or around 2.5K, reversing previous year growth
International also dropped 15.7% due to the exit of Norwegian and a slight drop in EI against a slight uptick in AC now they have consolidated under Jazz.

On the upside:
UA - increased by 10.4% or 6,300 pax 17 to 18 and a whopping 63% over the past 4 years with a massive push away from regionals to mainline flying (193% increase)
NK - more than doubled to 33K pax as their expansion continues a pace
B6 - after holding steady in 16 and 17, B6 posted a 16% increase in 2018 or 9,400 pax and are up nearly 50% over 2014
WN - increased by 4.5% or 4,600 pax, which reversed a previous trend downwards since 2014.

In terms of market share:
DL slipped back to #3, as their drop, coupled with WN's increase flipped their positions
B6 moved up to #4 at the expense of UA, by a mere 652 pax, so those could flip flop quite easily.
AA is still #1, but their lead is reducing and they are only 2.3% over WN, which next year could be overtaken if the trend were to be continued.



YTD

Highlight: September YTD for BDL has grown each of the last 4 years from 4.4m in 2014 to just under 5m in 2018 (13.1% increase), including a 3.9% uplift in 2017 to 2018 (185K).

Trends:
AA - despite their bigger drop in September. YTD AA are down less than 1% (10K), but they are 5.5% or 70K down since 2014,
DL - dropped 1.5% or around 14K, reversing previous year growth and well down on their number from 2015.
International also dropped 5.1%, (6.8K) due to the exit of Norwegian (8.9K) and a 2.9% drop in EI (1.9k) against a 7.2% uptick in AC (3.1K)

On the upside:
UA - increased by 10.7% or 55,000 pax 17 to 18 and a significant 54.5% over the past 4 years with a massive push of mainline flying (132% increase)
NK - are making a statement, now pulling in 344K and grabbed a nearly 7% market share YTD.
B6 - despite their uptick in September are actually down year over year by 2.7% or 18K allowing UA to close in, but there is still 60K gap at this point, that said since 2014 pax have grown by over 20%.
WN - like B6 and their increase in September WN are also down for the YTD by 5.3% (64,000), there is little danger to their current position, but the direction is definitely down with a 10.2% decrease since 2014.

In terms of market share:
YTD, the only big mover was WN that lost it's #1 position to AA and is now behind by 1% share of all pax. Spirit as noted above has taken a 7% share, and UA has increased by 0.7% at the expense of the others.

Rolling
Rolling 12 months at the end of September is 6.6m pax which is 4.1% up on this time last year, based on that and the numbers for Oct to Dec (removing Norwegian as we know they are gone) end of year is looking at just a touch under 6.7m for the year, which compares to 6.4m in 2017 and under 5.9m in 2014.

Clearly BDL is continuing it's growth path, but there are interesting dynamics, some of which we have discussed here underneath with each of the carriers. Obviously this is just based around numbers of pax and we can only draw conclusions based on the data noted, but a shift is definitely on. the US3 are definitely moving to more mainline, all of them. B6 continues to hold at it's current levels, but I am sure has lost share to NK in particular. WN is still a powerful player and a solid #2, and DL is not appearing to make any attempts to oust them from that position as far as I can tell. The big flip could be UA vs B6, there's still 100k to play with so it might still take some time to manage it.

As ever, any questions, let me know.


Thanks for covering BDL and the smaller airports besides BOS. I know its a lot of work and look forward to seeing more in the future!
 
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chrisnh
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Re: The Rest of New England (BDL/PVD/MHT/PWM/ORH/BTV/HVN) - 2018

Sun Dec 02, 2018 8:41 pm

UPS has been flying 757s between MHT and RFD. So that alone may account for their increase. Within the area of MHT, UPS has opened a giant logistics center that may be why the RFD flight exists. Or it may be entirely coincidental.

It may not be a strong limb, but I’ll go out on it anyway: AA will launch service between MHT-ORD.
 
tomaheath
Posts: 498
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Re: The Rest of New England (BDL/PVD/MHT/PWM/ORH/BTV/HVN) - 2018

Sun Dec 02, 2018 8:51 pm

chrisnh wrote:
UPS has been flying 757s between MHT and RFD. So that alone may account for their increase. Within the area of MHT, UPS has opened a giant logistics center that may be why the RFD flight exists. Or it may be entirely coincidental.

It may not be a strong limb, but I’ll go out on it anyway: AA will launch service between MHT-ORD.

Opinions on AA starting MHT-JFK or LGA? With UA cutting EWR and DL down to 1 daily LGA the demand could be there. Talking to someone that works for UA in Manchester many business travelers are upset about losing EWR.
 
btvhopper
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Re: The Rest of New England (BDL/PVD/MHT/PWM/ORH/BTV/HVN) - 2018

Mon Dec 03, 2018 9:26 pm

AA service MHT-ORD seems like a stretch. They tried that at PWM and BTV at the same time (2x daily E175's at BTV and 2x daily at PWM too, not sure on the aircraft) but both routes were only successful enough for seasonal service.

The demand for MHT is the NYC market; particularly LGA and EWR. I bet the first thing to happen is Delta will re-enter the white space with LGA service.
 
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LotsaRunway
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Re: The Rest of New England (BDL/PVD/MHT/PWM/ORH/BTV/HVN) - 2018

Tue Dec 04, 2018 3:13 am

btvhopper wrote:
AA service MHT-ORD seems like a stretch. They tried that at PWM and BTV at the same time (2x daily E175's at BTV and 2x daily at PWM too, not sure on the aircraft) but both routes were only successful enough for seasonal service.

The demand for MHT is the NYC market; particularly LGA and EWR. I bet the first thing to happen is Delta will re-enter the white space with LGA service.

I'm not sure that I see MHT-ORD as a stretch other than the fact that everything (except cargo) MHT seems to be going in reverse. I think a big part of UA failing on the route is that the product it offered was very unpopular and inconsistent.

As for MHT-NYC, if only one flight a day is going to be offered, DL has it right. Out in the morning and back at night. MHT is about a 4 hour drive from NYC, which puts flying there less in demand than in days prior to 9/11. With TSA and flight delays, O&D demand has dropped except for some same day business traffic. I think UA blundered by moving all of the EWR flights to IAD from MHT. If I were in planning, I would have kept a single MHT-EWR scheduled similar to the DL LGA flight and mover the rest to IAD. But UA doesn't seem bothered by inconsistency at MHT or answering local demand. It sounds as if a number of MHT-EWR regulars are unhappy with UA for dropping the link altogether. BTV and PWM are far enough away from NYC that flying competes far less with driving.
 
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LotsaRunway
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Re: The Rest of New England (BDL/PVD/MHT/PWM/ORH/BTV/HVN) - 2018

Tue Dec 04, 2018 3:23 am

VS4ever wrote:
Next up. BDL....
https://drive.google.com/open?id=0B61t8 ... VRWdmc5SkE

Similar rules apply here as to PVD, except I only have data back to 2014 rather than 2012.

Info:
Month
Highlight: September for BDL has grown each of the last 4 years from 452k in 2014 to 513k in 2018 (18 was the first of the bunch to be over 500K, which was a 5.9% uplift in 2017 to 2018.

Trends

AA - dropped 3.3% or around 4K continuing a trend that has seen them drop 8.5% over the time period and a 5.6% market share drop
DL - dropped 2.5% or around 2.5K, reversing previous year growth
International also dropped 15.7% due to the exit of Norwegian and a slight drop in EI against a slight uptick in AC now they have consolidated under Jazz.

On the upside:
UA - increased by 10.4% or 6,300 pax 17 to 18 and a whopping 63% over the past 4 years with a massive push away from regionals to mainline flying (193% increase)
NK - more than doubled to 33K pax as their expansion continues a pace
B6 - after holding steady in 16 and 17, B6 posted a 16% increase in 2018 or 9,400 pax and are up nearly 50% over 2014
WN - increased by 4.5% or 4,600 pax, which reversed a previous trend downwards since 2014.

In terms of market share:
DL slipped back to #3, as their drop, coupled with WN's increase flipped their positions
B6 moved up to #4 at the expense of UA, by a mere 652 pax, so those could flip flop quite easily.
AA is still #1, but their lead is reducing and they are only 2.3% over WN, which next year could be overtaken if the trend were to be continued.



YTD

Highlight: September YTD for BDL has grown each of the last 4 years from 4.4m in 2014 to just under 5m in 2018 (13.1% increase), including a 3.9% uplift in 2017 to 2018 (185K).

Trends:
AA - despite their bigger drop in September. YTD AA are down less than 1% (10K), but they are 5.5% or 70K down since 2014,
DL - dropped 1.5% or around 14K, reversing previous year growth and well down on their number from 2015.
International also dropped 5.1%, (6.8K) due to the exit of Norwegian (8.9K) and a 2.9% drop in EI (1.9k) against a 7.2% uptick in AC (3.1K)

On the upside:
UA - increased by 10.7% or 55,000 pax 17 to 18 and a significant 54.5% over the past 4 years with a massive push of mainline flying (132% increase)
NK - are making a statement, now pulling in 344K and grabbed a nearly 7% market share YTD.
B6 - despite their uptick in September are actually down year over year by 2.7% or 18K allowing UA to close in, but there is still 60K gap at this point, that said since 2014 pax have grown by over 20%.
WN - like B6 and their increase in September WN are also down for the YTD by 5.3% (64,000), there is little danger to their current position, but the direction is definitely down with a 10.2% decrease since 2014.

In terms of market share:
YTD, the only big mover was WN that lost it's #1 position to AA and is now behind by 1% share of all pax. Spirit as noted above has taken a 7% share, and UA has increased by 0.7% at the expense of the others.

Rolling
Rolling 12 months at the end of September is 6.6m pax which is 4.1% up on this time last year, based on that and the numbers for Oct to Dec (removing Norwegian as we know they are gone) end of year is looking at just a touch under 6.7m for the year, which compares to 6.4m in 2017 and under 5.9m in 2014.

Clearly BDL is continuing it's growth path, but there are interesting dynamics, some of which we have discussed here underneath with each of the carriers. Obviously this is just based around numbers of pax and we can only draw conclusions based on the data noted, but a shift is definitely on. the US3 are definitely moving to more mainline, all of them. B6 continues to hold at it's current levels, but I am sure has lost share to NK in particular. WN is still a powerful player and a solid #2, and DL is not appearing to make any attempts to oust them from that position as far as I can tell. The big flip could be UA vs B6, there's still 100k to play with so it might still take some time to manage it.

As ever, any questions, let me know.

Great analysis and thanks for sharing!
I just read somewhere that WN has been losing market share in a number of locations because of cost creep at the airline. In cities with less competition, WN has allowed their fares to rise significantly from where they were 10-15 years ago. As lots of people have posted, WN is often not the low fare on a lot of routes. As fares have risen, WN's ability to generate traffic has dulled. So if you have noticed WN losing market share, it may have more to do with the erosion of WN's economic competitive advantage than a decline in market. It's a whole lot easier to fill a 737 with $39 fares than it is with $139 or $239 fares.
 
Portlander
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Re: The Rest of New England (BDL/PVD/MHT/PWM/ORH/BTV/HVN) - 2018

Wed Dec 05, 2018 9:14 pm

Update on Portland International Jetport: Overall YTD 2018 total passengers are up 227,905 resulting in a 14.3% increase through October 30. PWM has experienced 7 consecutive record months and is on pace for over 2.1 million passengers by the end of December. Outbound capacity is up 46,681 seats (9.2 %) over the next 6 months (DEC-MAY) which includes JetBlue's move to seasonal service after January. The following are PWM's monthly passenger percentage increase/decrease during the previous 12 months:

NOV +4.1%, DEC +0.3%, JAN +1.5%, FEB +14.4%, MAR -2.8%, APR +11.7%, MAY +7.8%, JUN +17.4%, JUL +21.1%, AUG +25.4%, SEP +18.6%, OCT +14.9%

Overall numbers indicate that Portland's role as a destination city continues to grow especially outside of the traditionally busy summer vacation months. Construction is currently underway inside the terminal to renovate Gates 1-6, relocate new escalators further west to open up the approach to baggage claim along with the addition of glass elevators and restrooms. Long term plans include expanding the parking garage, adding customs facilities and a 3 gate terminal extension to the west.

PWM presently has 10 active jetways and one regional jet loading bridge for Gate 1 A/B/C which is at the far eastern portion of the terminal. Looks like there are no plans to ever extend the main runway beyond 7200 feet due to advances in aircraft technology, Portland's low elevation and cooler ambient temperatures. Was told today that Iceland is easily reachable from PWM with our current set up.
 
Portlander
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Re: The Rest of New England (BDL/PVD/MHT/PWM/ORH/BTV/HVN) - 2018

Wed Dec 05, 2018 10:37 pm

Forgot to add load factors for PWM during the previous 10 months: JAN 68%, FEB 79%, MAR 73%, APR 81%, MAY 78%, JUN 80%, JUL 85 %, AUG 88%, SEP 85%, OCT88%
 
cheapgreek
Posts: 527
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Re: The Rest of New England (BDL/PVD/MHT/PWM/ORH/BTV/HVN) - 2018

Wed Dec 05, 2018 10:43 pm

Portlander wrote:
Update on Portland International Jetport: Overall YTD 2018 total passengers are up 227,905 resulting in a 14.3% increase through October 30. PWM has experienced 7 consecutive record months and is on pace for over 2.1 million passengers by the end of December. Outbound capacity is up 46,681 seats (9.2 %) over the next 6 months (DEC-MAY) which includes JetBlue's move to seasonal service after January. The following are PWM's monthly passenger percentage increase/decrease during the previous 12 months:

NOV +4.1%, DEC +0.3%, JAN +1.5%, FEB +14.4%, MAR -2.8%, APR +11.7%, MAY +7.8%, JUN +17.4%, JUL +21.1%, AUG +25.4%, SEP +18.6%, OCT +14.9%

Overall numbers indicate that Portland's role as a destination city continues to grow especially outside of the traditionally busy summer vacation months. Construction is currently underway inside the terminal to renovate Gates 1-6, relocate new escalators further west to open up the approach to baggage claim along with the addition of glass elevators and restrooms. Long term plans include expanding the parking garage, adding customs facilities and a 3 gate terminal extension to the west.

PWM presently has 10 active jetways and one regional jet loading bridge for Gate 1 A/B/C which is at the far eastern portion of the terminal. Looks like there are no plans to ever extend the main runway beyond 7200 feet due to advances in aircraft technology, Portland's low elevation and cooler ambient temperatures. Was told today that Iceland is easily reachable from PWM with our current set up.


Portland sure must have changed since I was there, don't care to say how long its been, 10 jetways and a growing terminal. As far as TATL flights and its 7200 runway, its the east bound flights that have to deal with the prevailing winds, not the west bound so depending on the aircraft and destination, it could work.
 
Fex180
Posts: 129
Joined: Fri Apr 06, 2018 12:33 pm

Re: The Rest of New England (BDL/PVD/MHT/PWM/ORH/BTV/HVN) - 2018

Thu Dec 06, 2018 1:10 am

Portlander wrote:
Update on Portland International Jetport: Overall YTD 2018 total passengers are up 227,905 resulting in a 14.3% increase through October 30. PWM has experienced 7 consecutive record months and is on pace for over 2.1 million passengers by the end of December. Outbound capacity is up 46,681 seats (9.2 %) over the next 6 months (DEC-MAY) which includes JetBlue's move to seasonal service after January. The following are PWM's monthly passenger percentage increase/decrease during the previous 12 months:

NOV +4.1%, DEC +0.3%, JAN +1.5%, FEB +14.4%, MAR -2.8%, APR +11.7%, MAY +7.8%, JUN +17.4%, JUL +21.1%, AUG +25.4%, SEP +18.6%, OCT +14.9%

Overall numbers indicate that Portland's role as a destination city continues to grow especially outside of the traditionally busy summer vacation months. Construction is currently underway inside the terminal to renovate Gates 1-6, relocate new escalators further west to open up the approach to baggage claim along with the addition of glass elevators and restrooms. Long term plans include expanding the parking garage, adding customs facilities and a 3 gate terminal extension to the west.

PWM presently has 10 active jetways and one regional jet loading bridge for Gate 1 A/B/C which is at the far eastern portion of the terminal. Looks like there are no plans to ever extend the main runway beyond 7200 feet due to advances in aircraft technology, Portland's low elevation and cooler ambient temperatures. Was told today that Iceland is easily reachable from PWM with our current set up.


I know jetport management is pushing HARD for a flight to KEF, it's becoming increasingly realistic as time goes on, and as Portland / Maine develop closer economic and social ties to Iceland.
 
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pitbosflyer
Posts: 240
Joined: Tue Oct 25, 2016 6:18 pm

Re: The Rest of New England (BDL/PVD/MHT/PWM/ORH/BTV/HVN) - 2018

Thu Dec 06, 2018 2:58 pm

Fex180 wrote:
Portlander wrote:
Update on Portland International Jetport: Overall YTD 2018 total passengers are up 227,905 resulting in a 14.3% increase through October 30. PWM has experienced 7 consecutive record months and is on pace for over 2.1 million passengers by the end of December. Outbound capacity is up 46,681 seats (9.2 %) over the next 6 months (DEC-MAY) which includes JetBlue's move to seasonal service after January. The following are PWM's monthly passenger percentage increase/decrease during the previous 12 months:

NOV +4.1%, DEC +0.3%, JAN +1.5%, FEB +14.4%, MAR -2.8%, APR +11.7%, MAY +7.8%, JUN +17.4%, JUL +21.1%, AUG +25.4%, SEP +18.6%, OCT +14.9%

Overall numbers indicate that Portland's role as a destination city continues to grow especially outside of the traditionally busy summer vacation months. Construction is currently underway inside the terminal to renovate Gates 1-6, relocate new escalators further west to open up the approach to baggage claim along with the addition of glass elevators and restrooms. Long term plans include expanding the parking garage, adding customs facilities and a 3 gate terminal extension to the west.

PWM presently has 10 active jetways and one regional jet loading bridge for Gate 1 A/B/C which is at the far eastern portion of the terminal. Looks like there are no plans to ever extend the main runway beyond 7200 feet due to advances in aircraft technology, Portland's low elevation and cooler ambient temperatures. Was told today that Iceland is easily reachable from PWM with our current set up.


I know jetport management is pushing HARD for a flight to KEF, it's becoming increasingly realistic as time goes on, and as Portland / Maine develop closer economic and social ties to Iceland.


I think we may have to wait and see how WOW's business situation shakes out before anything happens. But I agree it could happen in the near future. Just might be FI instead of WW.
 
airbazar
Posts: 8973
Joined: Wed Sep 10, 2003 11:12 pm

Re: The Rest of New England (BDL/PVD/MHT/PWM/ORH/BTV/HVN) - 2018

Thu Dec 06, 2018 3:38 pm

pitbosflyer wrote:
I think we may have to wait and see how WOW's business situation shakes out before anything happens. But I agree it could happen in the near future. Just might be FI instead of WW.

Personally I think FI would be better suited for the market. I suspect that this is a well balanced market with business, cargo and leisure demand.
WOW is more of a low cost people mover with a bad reputation in the business community.
 
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VS4ever
Posts: 1725
Joined: Sun Jun 13, 2004 10:03 am

Re: The Rest of New England (BDL/PVD/MHT/PWM/ORH/BTV/HVN) - 2018

Thu Dec 06, 2018 3:45 pm

airbazar wrote:
pitbosflyer wrote:
I think we may have to wait and see how WOW's business situation shakes out before anything happens. But I agree it could happen in the near future. Just might be FI instead of WW.

Personally I think FI would be better suited for the market. I suspect that this is a well balanced market with business, cargo and leisure demand.
WOW is more of a low cost people mover with a bad reputation in the business community.


1/2 kidding, 1/2 serious, but I could see a fish for lobster cargo swap happening here as a way to support. Maybe 3 weekly as a start to test the market to say 4 or 5 weekly in the summer, if marketed right, they could link this into Acadia tourism (they already have the cruise ships calling there), I would have also said a link to PEI on the ferry, but last i heard the plan is to move that to Bar Harbor anyway.

The timing of this maybe right for 19 or a 2020 start, plus with being a short route could allow decent utilization of an aircraft if they couple it with another couple of routes.
That feeling when you sit at the end of a runway, brakes are released and the raw power takes over. Now that is a thing of beauty and it never gets old.
 
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pitbosflyer
Posts: 240
Joined: Tue Oct 25, 2016 6:18 pm

Re: The Rest of New England (BDL/PVD/MHT/PWM/ORH/BTV/HVN) - 2018

Thu Dec 06, 2018 3:53 pm

VS4ever wrote:
airbazar wrote:
pitbosflyer wrote:
I think we may have to wait and see how WOW's business situation shakes out before anything happens. But I agree it could happen in the near future. Just might be FI instead of WW.

Personally I think FI would be better suited for the market. I suspect that this is a well balanced market with business, cargo and leisure demand.
WOW is more of a low cost people mover with a bad reputation in the business community.


1/2 kidding, 1/2 serious, but I could see a fish for lobster cargo swap happening here as a way to support. Maybe 3 weekly as a start to test the market to say 4 or 5 weekly in the summer, if marketed right, they could link this into Acadia tourism (they already have the cruise ships calling there), I would have also said a link to PEI on the ferry, but last i heard the plan is to move that to Bar Harbor anyway.

The timing of this maybe right for 19 or a 2020 start, plus with being a short route could allow decent utilization of an aircraft if they couple it with another couple of routes.


As more 737max come into FI's fleet I could see that being a good plane to run the route with.
 
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VS4ever
Posts: 1725
Joined: Sun Jun 13, 2004 10:03 am

Re: The Rest of New England (BDL/PVD/MHT/PWM/ORH/BTV/HVN) - 2018

Fri Dec 07, 2018 3:37 am

Ok, so as promised, I figured out how to do the OTP for BDL, file is linked below, data thru September 18

https://drive.google.com/open?id=1nkYoU ... EUSQXpZPR5

Caveats

Like any tables from the DOT they have their limits, here's this tables:

1. Data only from Jan 2018, no previous comparatives at the regional carrier level available, although total carrier level is available for prior years i have ignored this for the purposes of the exercise.
2. Domestic, PR and USVI only, no international data available.
3. Carriers reporting: DL, UA, AA, WN, B6, NK
4. Carriers reporting regional ops, DL, UA, AA
5. Main Data is BDL, however I know a user of this thread is a big HVN fan, so somewhere buried in the data maybe an easter egg for that person...
7. For this version, i have done a Month (Sep) , QTD (Q3), YTD (Jan to Sep).

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

How the report works:

New Information
This month, I have figured out how to pull which Tail for each airline has passed through BOS the most, it does not give me actual model data, but for future months i may look that up if I can. I have added the Tail number and the number of times it passed through. For a couple of airlines, the data is not 100% complete, so the largest number is a "blank", so I have gone with the next largest number to have a reference.


Section 1 -
a) Bidirectional data of number of flights, cancellations and diverts, showing a net completion # and % along with a rough average stage length, grand totals attempt to be weighted average, still working through that.
b) Average Elapsed Time is total flight time including air and ground, separated by air and ground underneath. Ground time is effectively a combination of Taxi Time out (departure) and Taxi Time in (arrival) at the relevant airports.
c) # of aircraft used: this is quite awesome information, although i wish it was just a little more detailed, basically this table has "tail reg" information, so i can actually count how many aircraft are used by each carrier. I can actually dive into how many on a particular route if needed, but i do not have aircraft types or load factors in these tables, so please do not ask if i do!. However what I DO have is which aircraft are used on which route on a given day and by flight number, and times if you are interested, please ask. I also have the detailed tables for each airline, but be warned they are big, so it's unlikely i can send them directly to you.

Section 2 -
IMPORTANT NOTE: This is OUTBOUND from BOS only information, so it's not the same as section 1.
# of flights, cancellations and diversions for a % completion factor, # of departures per day is based on the the gross number not the net and remember does NOT include international, so complaining that DL are at 115 for example and the data is wrong, is incorrect, because as noted, it's domestic only.. sorry.

Section 3
Also OUTBOUND only
This is On Time Performance, so net of cancellations, how many were delayed out of BOS, On-time as defined by DOT is leaving less than 15 minutes late, % OTP to see who is doing better than others. The departures per day shows how many flights are getting off the ground as opposed to section 2, which is how many are supposed to each day.

Section 4
I'm still getting to grips with this section, however basically a breakout of the key delay factors reported by this table i am working with. Carrier Delay is delays caused by non-aircraft carrier activities, Weather and ATC are obvious, then there is Inbound aircraft delay as well. ALSO OUTBOUND from BOS info.

Section 5
Breakdown of why flights are cancelled by category, whether by the carrier, Weather or ATC

Section 6
Breakdown of how long flights were delayed for and how many
-2 to 0 - on time
12 = 180+, no limit, others are blocked by 15 minute intervals.

Other Info
Highest and Lowest in each section, for those with multi-carriers, i have split those out on separate tabs for viewing along with ORH information for B6.


Commentary

Month - September[/u]
DL takes the flights completed award with a perfect 100%, all 453 completed, runner up was WN that got so close, but had 1 diverted, bringing up the rear was AA with 20 cancellations and 2 diverts for 96.96%. Piedmont and Trans States were the killers for AA, sadly.

DL also led the On-time departure list with a 93.6% rating a full 2.5% ahead of WN and nearly 9% better than also ran AA and 5% better than the overall average.

Overall 73% of flights departed early, Winner in this category was NK with 81.7% followed by UA with 80.7% However once you get past that, everything flips with the on-time 0-15 minutes late category going to WN with 23.5% and DL with 16,6%, UA drops to 6.7% and NK 8.4%

In terms of reasons why flights were late, AA got hit with 34 minute ATC delays, NK close behind with 32. , B6 suffered from inbound aircraft being 29 minutes late (UA was second with 27) and B6 drove the most carrier delays at an average of 16 minutes.
One interesting stat is that clearly AA was taxiing their planes to Hartford and back, as they took 15 minutes compared to DL's 5.. either that or the ATC guy is a relation of one of the big DL Fan Boys on this site.

23 flights out of 2,401 recorded (domestic-outbound only) were delayed more than 3 hours. More surprisingly, 32 flights departed more than 15 minutes Early with B6 managing 13 of those.



[u]YTD - September


DL had the best completed record YTD with 98.84% making it out of 4,303 outbound flights with 44 cancelled and 8 diverts, runner up was NK with 97.59%, 30 cancelled and 2 diverts, last place went to AA with 95.88%, 330 cancelled and 13 diverted on 6,774 flights logged.

For On time performance . DL wins hands down with 88.14%, a nearly 4% lead over 2nd placed WN , bringing up the rear, old favorite B6, with a 73.42% on 2,664 flights.

Overall 64% of flights departed early and UA was the leader with 74% of theirs going out in that category NK a close 2nd, WN brings up the rear with 51.9%. WN claws itself back in the ontime category with a whopping 32% of flights departing in that time frame.

The late category shows B6 having over 4.7% of their flights delayed over 2 hours. Next up was NK with 3.8%, WN did best at 1.5%

In terms of reasons why flights were late,
NK- 43 minute ATC Delays
NK - 40 minute inbound aircraft delays, WN with 39
DL - 31 minute carrier delays

299 flights delayed more than 3 hours, 203 left more than 15 minutes early

Anyway, plenty more data for you to look at in the file. Enjoy.

Depending on time, i might do one more, so you guys get to vote.. would you like to see
a) RI with PVD
b) VT with BTV
c) ME with PWM and BGR
d) NH with MHT and PSM
That feeling when you sit at the end of a runway, brakes are released and the raw power takes over. Now that is a thing of beauty and it never gets old.

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